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Guest Post: 2014 - A Russian Viewpoint
Via The Vineyard Of The Saker blog,
Introduction:
By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don't think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) "moved" this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the "vectors" of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of "unknown unknowns" (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.
The main event and the main actors
A comprehensive analysis of 2014 should include most major countries on the planet, but this would be too complicated and, ultimately, useless. I think that it is indisputable that the main event of 2014 has been the war in the Ukraine. This crisis not only overshadowed the still ongoing Anglo-Zionist attack on Syria, but it pitted the world's only two nuclear superpowers (Russia and the USA) directly against each other. And while some faraway countries did have a minor impact on the Ukrainian crisis, especially the BRICS, I don't think that a detailed discussion of South African or Brazilian politics would contribute much. There is a short list of key actors whose role warrants a full analysis. They are:
- The USA
- The Ukrainian Junta
- The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)
- Russia
- The EU
- NATO
- China
I submit that these seven actors account for 99.99% of the events in the Ukraine and that an analysis of the stance of each one of them is crucial. So let's take them one by one:
1 - The USA
Of all the actors in this crisis, the USA is by far the most consistent and coherent one. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Hillary Clinton and Victoria Nuland were very clear about US objectives in the Ukraine:
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be empire, while with Ukraine - bought off first and subdued afterwards, it automatically turns into empire…(...) the new world order under the hegemony of the United States is created against Russia and on the fragments of Russia. Ukraine is the Western outpost to prevent the recreation of the Soviet Union.
Hillary Clinton: There is a move to re-Sovietise the region (...) It’s not going to be called that. It’s going to be called a customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that, (...) But let's make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.
Victoria Nuland: F**k the EU!
Between the three, these senior US "deep-staters" have clearly and unambiguously defined the primary goal of the USA: to take control of the Ukraine to prevent Russia from becoming a new Soviet Union, regardless of what the EU might have to say about that. Of course, there were other secondary goals which I listed in June of this year (see here):
As a reminder, what were the US goals in the Ukraine: (in no particular order)
- Sever the ties between Russia and the Ukraine
- Put a russophobic NATO puppet regime in power in Kiev
- Boot the Russians out of Crimea
- Turn Crimea into a unsinkable US/NATO aircraft carrier
- Create a Cold War v2 in Europe
- Further devastate the EU economies
- Secure the EU's status as "US protectorate/colony"
- Castrate once and for all EU foreign policies
- Politically isolate Russia
- Maintain the worldwide dominance of the US dollar
- Justify huge military/security budgets
I have color-coded objectives these objectives into the following categories:
Achieved - black
Still possible - too early to call - blue
Compromised - pink
Failed - red
Current "score card": 1 "achieved", 5 "possible, 2 "compromised" and 3 "failed".
Here is how I would re-score the same goals at the end of the year:
- Sever the ties between Russia and the Ukraine
- Put a russophobic NATO puppet regime in power in Kiev
- Boot the Russians out of Crimea
- Turn Crimea into a unsinkable US/NATO aircraft carrier
- Create a Cold War v2 in Europe
- Further devastate the EU economies
- Secure the EU's status as "US protectorate/colony"
- Castrate once and for all EU foreign policies
- Politically isolate Russia
- Maintain the worldwide dominance of the US dollar
- Justify huge military/security budgets
New score card: 6 "achieved", 1 "possible", 1 "compromised" and 3 "failed"
At first glance, this is a clear success for the USA: from 1 achieved to 6 with the same number of "failed" is very good for such a short period of time. However, a closer look will reveal something crucial: all the successes of the USA were achieved at the expense of the EU and none against Russia. Not only that, but the USA has failed in its main goal: to prevent Russia from becoming a superpower, primarily because the US policy was based on a hugely mistaken assumption: that Russia needed the Ukraine to become a superpower again. This monumental miscalculation also resulted in another very bad fact for the USA: the dollar is still very much threatened, more so than a year ago in fact.
This is so important that I will repeat it again: the AngloZionist Empire predicated its entire Ukrainian strategy on a completely wrong assumption: that Russia "needed" the Ukraine. Russia does not, and she knows that. As we shall see later, a lot of the key events of this year are a direct result of this huge miscalculation.
The US is now facing a paradox: "victory" in the Ukraine, "victory" in Europe, but failure to stop a rapidly rising Russia. Worse, these "victories" came at a very high price which included creating tensions inside the EU, threatening the future of the US shale gas industry, alienating many countries at the UN, being deeply involved with a Nazi regime, becoming the prime suspect in the shooting down of MH17 and paying the costs for an artificially low price of gold. But the single worst consequence of the US foreign policy in the Ukraine has been the establishment of a joint Russian-Chinese strategic alliance clearly directed against the United States (more about that later).
Can the US stay the course next year? That is hard to predict but I would say that in terms of direction the US policy will be more of the same. It is the magnitude (in the sense of will/energy to pursue) of this policy which is dubious. Traditionally, US policies are typically very intensive in the short term, but lack the staying power to see them through in the long term and there is no reason to believe that this case will be different. Furthermore, the US foreign policy establishment is probably simply unable to imagine a different approach: the United States do not really have a real foreign policy, rather they issue orders and directives to their vassal states and threats to all others. Finally, just as some banks are considered "too big to fail" the US policy towards the Ukraine is "too crazy to correct" thus any change of course would result in a major loss of face for an Empire which really cannot afford one more humiliating defeat right now. Still, when the political and financial costs of this policy become prohibitive, the US might have to consider the option to "declare victory and leave" (a time-honored US practice) and let the EU deal with the mess. There is also the very real risk of war with Russia which might give some US decision-makers pause. This is possible, but I am afraid that the US will try to play it's last card and trigger a full-scale war between the Ukraine and Russia.
Why would the US want to do that? Imagine this:
A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine
The Ukrainians are told to attack Novorussia again. This time, they are more numerous, better equipped and their attack is fully supported, if not executed, by American "advisers" and retired US Army officers. Imagine further that the Ukrainians are given full intelligence support by US/NATO and that their progress is monitored 24/7 by US/NATO commanders who will help them in the conduct of the attack. Finally, let us assume that the Novorussians are overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude and speed of the attack and that Lugansk and Donetsk are rapidly surrounded. At this point the Russians will face a stark choice: either to abandon Novorussia to the Nazis or intervene. The first option would be catastrophic for Putin politically, and it would "solve" nothing: the Ukrainian junta, the US, EU, NATO have all clearly and repeatedly stated that they will never accept the reincorporation of Crimea into Russia. Furthermore, if the Russians let the Nazis overrun Novorussia, the next logical step for the Ukrainians will be to move south and repeat the very same operation in Crimea at which point Russia will not even have a choice and she will be forced to engage the Ukrainians to defend Crimea. Thus, if the Russians realize that the Ukrainians will push on no matter what, then Russia would be far better of engaging the Ukrainians over Novorussia then over Crimea.
If the Russians make the call that they have to openly intervene to save the Donbass from the Nazis, the Ukrainians don't stand a chance and everybody knows that. The Russians would very rapidly defeat the Ukrainian forces. Such a Russian move would be greeted by a massive media campaign denouncing the Russian "invasion" and Kiev would probably declare the Ukraine at war in which case the combat operations would probably spill over into other parts of the Ukraine or even Russia (the Ukrainians could, for example, try to strike Russians airports around Rostov or in Crimea). Whatever the Ukrainians decide, it is certain that they would have nothing to lose by escalating the situation further. In military terms, Russia can easily handle whatever the Ukrainians can try to throw at them. However I would not expect the Russians push to Kiev or the Dniper River, even if they could. They are most likely to do what they did to Saakashvili in 2008: protect the attacked region and only go as far as needed to disarm their enemy (in 2008 Russia could *easily* have occupied all of tiny Georgia, but she ended up withdrawing behind Ossetian and Abkhaz lines).
Such a Russian victory would be a crushing military defeat for Kiev, but not for the USA. The Americans would have their 'proof' of Russian imperial "aggression" and declare that the EU needs "protection" from the "Russian bear". The US would finally have the Cold War v2 it wants so badly, the EU politicians would play along, just to terrify their own population, and a "wonderful" arms race and a situation of extreme tension would pit all of Europe against Russia for a long, long time. Even for the junta in Kiev a military defeat might be a wonderful opportunity to blame it all on Russia and a way to get the population to rally against the "aggressor". Such a war between Russia and the Ukraine could also justify the introduction of martial law and a massive and vicious crackdown against "Russian agents" (i.e. any opposition) who would be designated as "saboteurs" and responsible for the inevitable Ukrainian defeat.
In the Ukraine and in Russia there is this black-humor joke which says that "the USA will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian" and this is exactly what might happen as this option offers a lot of major advantages for the USA. For one thing, it is a win-win proposition: either the Ukrainians re-take Novorussia and then the very same plan can be repeated in Crimea, or they are defeated by Russia, in which case the resulting crisis offers huge benefits for US imperial ambitions.
Now let's look at the options for the Ukrainian junta.
2 - The Ukrainian Junta
For the Nazi regime currently in power things are not going well and unless something changes they are headed for disaster: Crimea is gone, the Donbass is slowly but surely building up its instruments of statehood, the economy is basically dead and the "holes in the dam" harder and harder to plug. An explosion of popular unrest is inevitable. Worse, there are exactly *zero* future prospects for the Ukrainian economy and an official default is quasi inevitable. So what can the junta do?
Here it is crucial to remember that no Ukrainian politician has any real power, not even Poroshenko, Iatseniuk or Turchinov. The real rulers of the Ukraine are the US ambassador and the Kiev CIA station chief. These are the people who literally administer the Nazi junta on behalf of the US deep state and its imperial interests. As for the Ukrainian members of the junta, they all perfectly understand that their future is 100% dependent on being a faithful servant of the AngloZionist Empire. They all understand that they came to power by means of an completely illegal coup, that the elections they organized this year were a total farce and that they will soon have to use repressive measures against their own population just to stay in power. Last but not least, these are the folks who not only used chemical munitions, cluster bombs and even ballistic missiles against their own people, but who also send their own armed forces to be slaughtered in useless and criminally irresponsible "surprises" ordered by Poroshenko (the attempt to encircle Novorussia and to cut it off from the Russian border). We are talking about hardened war criminals here, people with no conscience whatsoever, sociopaths with a total lack of any moral compass. These are the folks who spoke a "barbecue of insects" in Odessa when 100+ people were tortured to death or burned alive and who giggled about shooting down the wrong place about MH-17 (Kolomoisky video). In fact, they are currently engaged in a racist hate-campaign.
Check out these posters which were recently shown in Kiev as part of a competition of patriotic posters. If a picture is worth one thousand words, just glancing at these few will tell you all you need to know about the wordview of the Nazi junta: (note: I translated the meaning of the slogans)
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| Russians don't get to speak |
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| All together we will stop Russian terrorism |
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| God's speaks through the people's voice |
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| Fuck off Eurasian bastard! |
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| May each slave wake up in a coffin |
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| Getting a Russian passport makes you a Eurasian faggot |
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| Don't pass by - kill! |
I have to explain the last one: what you see is a "Colorado beetle" (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) which has colors similar to the ones seen on the Russian Saint George Ribbon. In other words, this poster says that if you pass by a Russian you should kill him. Notice the other themes: the Maidan was God's voice, the Russians are "Eurasians" who are beasts who should have no right, not even the right to speak or live. This is exactly the same propaganda style as used by Hitler against Jews and we all know how this ended (yet again another proof that to refer to the junta as "Nazi" is perfectly justified).
But there is much more then just words to pay attention to.
The Ukrainian budget has finally been adopted by the Rada. It can be summarized as such: less services, more taxes and everything for the military and security services (3% of the GDP for the former, 2% for the latter). For a country which is essentially bankrupt this is a huge effort. Not only that, but the junta has also announced that it will execute another mobilization next year (the 4th one in less than one year!!). Now ask yourself a basic question: could such a truly titanic effort have been made without some very real expectations of a "return on investment"? When you see a regime stirring up racial hatred against part of its own population and against a neighboring country while putting all of its tiny and much needed resources towards preparations for war - is that not a surefire sign that a war in imminent?
As a former military analyst myself I can tell you that by now the Russian intelligence community's "indicators and warnings" should be "flashing red" and that in all likelihood Russia is already preparing for war (more about Russia later). But before we look at the Russian position, we need to look into the situation of Novorussia.
3 - The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)
The Novorussians are finishing the year in which they have achieved an absolutely amazing feat: from literally being *nothing* they spontaneously got together to stand up against the Nazi junta and they prevailed even with the entire Ukrainian military was launched at them. It is hard to believe that just 12 months ago the Donbass only meekly requested some language rights and some local autonomy or that earlier this year very almost nobody predicted that the Donbass would rise up and defeat the junta's death squads. And yet this miracle happened. How much did Russia really help? I would argue that not that much at all.
Initially, the Russian move to protect Crimea and the subsequent resolution of the Council of the Federation to allow Putin to use military power to protect the Russian minority in the Ukraine definitely played a key role in the first seizure of state buildings in Slaviansk and other town. Furthermore, Strelkov apparently believed that if he held on long enough the Russian armed forces would come and relieve the exhausted Novorussian militias. It never happened.
There is no doubt whatsoever that this apparent Russian "zag" left a lot of bad feelings in Novorussia and the theory that the Kremlin is about to "sell out" Novorussia is still discussed not only in the Russian blogosphere, but even on Russian TV (including yesterday on the most famous weekly talk show "Sunday evening with Vladimir Soloviev). Here is how this version goes: Putin is inherently weak and tries in vain to appease the West while Russian oligarchs are making a behind the scenes deal with their Ukrainian counterparts. Truth be told, this version is plausible, even if incorrect. The Kremlin's policy towards the West sure does look like appeasement while Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs have tried to arrange deals whether with or without the knowledge of the Russian government.
Any model is valid as long as it helps to explain the observed reality and this "Kremlin sells out Novorussia" does explain a lot. But it fails in many crucial aspects:
- It fails to explain why following Strelkov's removal the Novorussians went on their highly successful offensive which pushed the Ukrainians as far as Mariupol.
- It fails to explain the Russian Voentorg.
- It fails to explain why the Russian government has done nothing to stop the volunteers and supplies coming from Russia.
- It fails to explain why Russia would provide full informational support for a region and it's leaders if she intended to trade it away.
But most importantly this theory is completely out-of-character if we look not only at what Putin says and writes, but at his entire political career. Simply put, there is nobody on this planet which has done more to oppose the AngloZionist Empire than Vladimir Putin. I think that the hysterical and vicious demonization campaign against him in the western media is the best proof of that. I shall give my own explanation for the Russian zig-zags towards the West and the Ukrainian war in the next section, but so far let's just state that it created a lot of bad blood and anxiety amongst the Novorussians, including several of their field commanders.
For a while we witness the short lived but strong development of a "let's not stop before we win" party. These are the folks who advocated at the very least liberating Slaviansk and Mariupol and who were absolutely disgusted when Russia clearly ordered the Novorussians to stop and pull back. This party of what I could also call "let the strength of arms decide" has clearly lost as one after the other the top Novorussian commanders accepted, however bitterly, the Kremlin's demands. Some gave their strong and total support to Putin (Givi, Motorola, Bezler) while others gave a more reluctant acceptance of the fait accompli (Mozgovoi, Strelkov).
I won't even bother discussing the "shoulda, coulda, woulda" about whether the Novorussians could have freed Mariupol, Slaviansk or other cities. What is important here is something else: Novorussia and Russia have different priorities, different goals, different interests and if the two sides disagree, the bigger one - Russia - imposes her will. In other words, the Novorussians simply cannot fight the Nazi death squads and try to politically prevail against Putin in the court of Russian public opinion. They tried, and they failed.
So what's next?
The sad reality for the Novorussians is that they are stuck in the middle of a much bigger war and that what they see as "their" war is but a minor skirmish for the big players. Yes, the future of Novorussia is crucial to Russia, but it is not enough. Russia simply cannot live with a situation where a Ukrainian-Nazi equivalent of ISIS in Iraq remains in power in Kiev, regardless of who is in power in Novorussia (I would argue that neither can Novorussia, but that is an argument I made elsewhere already). Clearly the Kremlin analysts made the call that while Novorussia should be protected from the Ukrainian Nazis it should not be allowed to fight an open-ended war to free all of Novorussia or, even less so, the entire Ukraine (I happen to agree with this conclusion, but that is immaterial for this discussion).
For a while I was under the impression that Strelkov might become a "spokesman for Novorussia" in Russia, but that clearly did not happen (for whatever reason). In fact, right now there is no such ambassador or spokesman for Novorussia in Russia, nobody to make the Novorussian case in front of the Russian public opinion. I don't think that this is a good thing, but that is the reality.
As a result, the Novorussians are basically stuck. They have to prepare for the almost inevitable Ukrainian assault and pray that they will have the strength to push it back. Should they fail, they will have no other option than to pray for a Russian intervention which, considering the undeniable Russian zigs-zags in this matter, will not appear certain to all. This is a bad situation for the Novorussians, but they have no other options. Putin has successfully imposed his will on the Novorussians and now their future depends on him, for better or for worse.
4 - Russia
So far Russia stands undefeated by the AngloZionist empire, but she is far from having prevailed either. In fact, Russia is waging a much bigger war or, more accurately, a number of much bigger wars.
First, Russia is trying to survive the attempt by the AngloZionist Empire to economically blockade her.
Second, in order to survive that blockade, Russia is trying to reform her economy to make it less dependent on the export of raw materials, more autonomous and connected to new partners, especially in Asia and Latin America.
Third, Russia is trying to de-fang the Empire by pulling herself out from the dollar and the US/UK controlled international financial system.
Fourth, Russia is trying to prevent the USA from permanently installing a russophobic Nazi regime in power.
Fifth, Russia is preparing for both a major war in the Ukraine and a full scale US/NATO attack on Russia.
It is important to stress here that point #5 does not mean that the Kremlin has come to the conclusion that a full-scale war with the Empire is inevitable. That only means that the Kremlin has decided that such a war is possible, even if most unlikely. You think I am exaggerating?
Let me show you two videos. One a commentary by the most senior journalist in Russia - Dimitri Kiselev - while the other one is a video report shown to President Putin at the end of the year by the Ministry of Defense during a conference on the status of the Russian military and later posted on the Ministry of Defenses' website.
First the political context:
And second, the military's preparations for war:
Combine the two and you will clearly see that a) nobody in Russia has any illusions about what the Empire really wants (submit Russia) or about the tools the Empire is willing to use (full scale war). And to leave no doubt in anybody's mind, Russia has also revised her 2010 military doctrine to designate NATO expansion eastwards by name as the bigger threat to Russia and to restate that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if her conventional forces fail to protect her.
When in Mach of this year I wrote that Russia was ready for war I got a lot of replies accusing me of being over-the-top. Today the writing is all over the wall: Russia does not want war, but she is definitely preparing for it.
I would, however, argue that the biggest threat for Russia is internal, not external. Nothing is more dangerous for the future of Russia then what I call the "Atlantic Integrationists" and which Putin even called the "5th column". And make no mistake here, we are not talking about Khodorkovsy in New York or Navalnii in the streets of Moscow. We are talking about powerful, rich, influential people who for decades (since Gorbachev's times, or even before) have infiltrated all the levels of government and who today are even in the government of Prime Minister Medvedev. True, these pro-AngloZionist 5th columnists have suffered a series of setbacks and they have been weakened by Putin's relentless assault on their power, but what does "weaker" really mean in our context? According to Mikhail Khazin the Eurasian Sovereignists and the Atlantic Integrationists are now roughly at 50/50 in terms of power. That's right, Putin is far from having total control of Russia and he is in fact locked into a war for survival against a formidable foe who will try to capitalize on every setback Russia suffers, especially in her economy. Putin knows that and he is therefore in a race against time to de-couple Russia from the economic and financial mechanisms which make it possible for the AngloZionists to hurt Russia.
How much does this 5th column account for the apparent zig-zags and apparent appeasement of the West by Russia?
I honestly don't know. Neither does anybody else who is not a true Kremlin insider. In some cases, such as the Minsk agreements, I think that this apparent "zag" was an true expression of Russian political goals. But when I see that Russia is selling coal to the Ukraine on credit (?!) I can only conclude that this is a case of sabotage of Russian national interests. But we will never know for sure. All we can do is to accept that Russia is like a ship or aircraft which is generally holding a specific course, but which regularly zig-zags on the way because the folks in the cockpit are fighting for the control of the helm. In practical terms this means that next year Russia will mostly stay the course. Why? Because time is on Russia's side. For Russia every month, week or day which can delay an overt confrontation with the Ukraine or the West is one day won for preparation internal reform. It is also one more day for the junta in Kiev to slide down one further notch, for the EU economies to carry the full impact of anti-Russian sanctions and for the US to suffer the political consequences of their arrogant, irresponsible and generally unpopular imperial policies.
The single most important political development for Russia is the Russian-Chinese Strategic Alliance (RCSA) which fundamentally changes the entire strategic posture of Russia. I will discuss this tectonic shift in world politics further below, but right now I want to the position of the EU.
5 - The EU
2014 was truly a historical year for the EU marked by the wholesale and abject surrender of the EU political leaders to the United States. From the EU guaranteed agreement between the opposition and Yanokovich which was broken the very next day, the Victoria Nuland's famous words which were never challenged, to the introduction of sanctions the day after the signing of the Minsk agreement, to the political and economic seppuku against South Stream, to the shameful silence and even collaboration with the murderers of the passengers of MH17 - the EU has proven to all that it is only a spineless colony of the AngloZionist Empire and that the EU and the Ukraine are equally subservient puppets of the United States. There is no EU to speak of. It is a US controlled territory whose administration is entrusted to Germany to whose power all the EU nations have bowed. And in this system, countries such as Poland or Lithuania have a special role: to lead the EU in subservience to the USA.
From the latest statements of Putin and Lavrov it is pretty clear that they fully share Victoria Nulands opinion of the EU which they now seem consider as some kind of "geopolitical Conchita Wurst" not worthy of any respect or credibility.
Truly, the EU and its Eurobureaucratic elites have passed a point of no return. If in the past they could still pretend like the EU project was making the EU stronger and that in maintained the sovereignty of its member, now this kind of statement will only be met with a disgusted laughter. As a system the EU has committed suicide and nothing can be further expected of it until it collapses. The riots which have taken place in almost every country of western Europe are a clear sign that most Europeans are either fed-up or desperate or both. In a way, we could say that the EU is run by a Soviet-style nomenklatura which lives in complete detachment from the rest of the European people in a kind of US-built ivory tower high above the common people. Exactly the kind of situation which results in bloody uprisings and revolutions. I am personally convinced that an explosion of anger could happen anytime, especially in the EU countries bordering the Mediterranean. But unlike the Russians, the Europeans prefer their revolution in the warm weather. So maybe next summer?
6 -NATO
The Russians have now officially declared that the NATO expansion into the east was the biggest threat for Russia. And yet I will make the case that NATO is a paper tiger, at least in military terms and that NATO simply does not have what it takes to attack Russia (for my reasons for stating that, please see here). I recently explained that on the blog, and I think that it is worth repeating this once more today:
One more thing: the Russians are most definitely upset about the very aggressive NATO stance because they - correctly - interpret it as a sign of hostility. But, contrary to what a lot of bloggers say, the Russians have no fear of the military threat posed by NATO. Their reaction to the latest NATO moves (new bases and personnel in Central Europe, more spending, etc.) is to denounce it as provocative, but Russian officials all insist that Russia can handle the military threat. As one Russian deputy said "5 rapid reaction diversionary groups is a problem we can solve with one missile". A simplistic but basically correct formula. Putin said the very same thing when he clearly spelled out that in case of a massive conventional attack by "anybody" Russia would engage tactical nukes. In fact, if NATO goes ahead with its stupid plan to deploy forces in Poland and/or the Baltics I expect Russia with withdraw from the IRNF Treaty and deploy advanced successors to the famous RSD-10 (SS-20). As I mentioned before, the decision to double the size of the Russian Airborne Forces and to upgrade the elite 45th Special Designation Airborne Regiment to full brigade-size has already been taken anyway. You could say that Russia preempted the creation of the 10'000 strong NATO force by bringing her own mobile (airborne) forces from 36'000 to 72'000.
This is typical Putin. While NATO announces with fanfare and fireworks that NATO will create a special rapid reaction "spearhead" force of 10'000, Putin quietly doubles the size of the Russian Airborne Forces to 72'000. And, believe me, the battle hardened Russian Airborne Forces are a vastly more capable fighting force then the hedonistic and demotivated multi-national (28 countries) Euroforce of 5'000 NATO is struggling hard to put together. The US commanders fully understand that, and they also know that the real purpose of NATO is not to attack Russia, but to maintain the US control over Europe. As early as in 1949 the first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay, candidly admitted that NATO's true goal was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down" (notice that in the typical russophobic way of the western elites, Russians are considered as the source of the threat even though in 1949 a Georgian was at the helm of the Soviet Union and that Russians had paid a much higher price in repressions then the non-Russian ethnic groups).
Little has changed since, except that with the "Soviet threat" gone NATO had to scramble to find a justification for itself and that it now wants to find it in the "need to protect European democracy from the resurgent Russian Bear". In other words, the ideal situation for NATO is a crisis just one notch below a full-scale war. In case of a real, shooting, war against Russia NATO will be crushed, but as long as NATO can *pretend* it is defending Europe against Russia it is justifying its existence. Hence the silly hunts for Russian ghost submarines, the "interception" of Russian aircraft in international airspace and the constant stream of dramatic statements that NATO will never allow Russia to attack Poland or Lithuania (as if Russia wanted to do that in the first place!).
NATO will continue doing exactly that: pretend like Russia was going to attack Moldova next and that NATO must prevent that. The flow of incendiary and even frankly irresponsible statements will continue, NATO official will continue to deliver stark warnings to Russia with all the required gravitas and the Empire's corporate media will report them as if they had a factual connection to reality. Keeping the Russians out, the German down and the Americans in will be an easy mission since the Russians don't want in, the Germans have totally surrendered along the rest of Europe, and the Americans are already fully in charge.
7 - China
It is amazing for me to see that most observers and analysts have apparently failed to realize that China is now a key actor in the Ukrainian war. Anybody doubting this claim should read the Vineyard of the Saker White Paper written by Larchmonter 445 entitled The Russia-China Double Helix. To make a long story short, China and Russia have decided to keep their own "hands" (their armed forces) and their own "heads" (their political leadership) but to share a common "torso" (their economies, natural and human resources, their industrial and technological know-how and everything else which allows a society to prosper). I call this the Russia-China Strategic Alliance (RCSA) but really it is something even bigger then that - it is a long term decision to share a common fate and to take the risk to become inseparable. An alliance, a treaty, can be broken or withdrawn from. But once your "internal organs" are shared with another entity you are bound together, for better or for worse. What has happened is truly a tectonic geopolitical shift: two empires have decided to join together while remaining sovereign and independent. To my knowledge this has never happened in history and Putin and Xi have already changed the course of history by this monumental decision.
The two countries are ideal symbionts: everything one has the other needs and vice versa. China needs Russian raw materials, especially energy, Russian high technology (aerospace, engines, power plants, etc.) and Russian armaments (everything from the rifle bullet to the ICBM). Russia needs two things from China: money and "Walmart" (consumer goods). Together these two giants not only have immense currency resources but the biggest stash of physical gold on the planet. And, to make things even better, Russia and China are the undisputed leaders of BRICS and SCO. Taken together these two countries are already far more powerful than the AngloZionist Empire and that trend will only grow.
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| A Russian, a Russian Asian and a Chinese solider |
Of course, China will not intervene militarily in the Ukraine. Remember - each country keeps its own "hands" so long as the other is not directly threatened. But in the Pacific Russian and Chinese navies are already training together and even creating joint command centers.
In the Ukraine, China still play a crucial role by providing Russia will all the economic aid needed to overcome the western sanctions and restructure the Russian economy. The Chinese have now officially declared that. It is both ironic and beautiful that after decades of Russian fears that China might try to conquer Siberia (even Solzhenitsyn shared these fears) Putin and Xi have found a much more intelligent solution - Russia will sell Siberia's riches to China while China will protect Russia from the West. Again, this is truly a historic development whose importance cannot be overstated.
* * *
Adding up all these vectors
So let's add it all up now.
In summary:
The USA now has no other option then to press on their assault on Russia because what is at stake is quite literally the future of the AngloZionist Empire and, therefore, the future of our planet. China uniting with Russia is definitely bad news, but it is too late for the USA to back down now or even to change course. The Americans probably realize that they have fired their best shots already and that the Ukrainian junta is in deep trouble and that the collapse of their Nazi "Banderastan" is just a matter of time. In other words, the Empire is now in a "use them or lose them" situation and "fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian" is now the best option for the US 1%ers.
The Ukrainian Junta members are basically in the same situation as the USA: they must realize that their days are numbered and that their best chance is to do the US bidding and trigger a huge crisis.
The Novorussians are stuck: they have to do whatever the Kremlin wants them to do, hope for the best, prepare for the worst and courageously face anything in the middle.
Russia needs to avoid an open confrontation with the West for as long as possible.
The EU will remain as irrelevant and pathetic as ever.
NATO will play a dangerous game of brinkmanship trying to create as much tensions as possible without triggering an actual conflict.
China will do whatever it takes to protect Russia from the economic war waged against her.
Conclusions
From the above I conclude that unless some major development substantially alters the current dynamic the resulting vector clearly points at the inevitability of a full-scale war between Russia and the Ukraine along the scenario outlined above ("A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine"). There is no reason whatsoever to expect the US, the Nazi junta, NATO or the EU to begin acting in a responsible or constructive manner. For these reasons, Russia will be alone in trying to avoid an intervention the Donbass and the inevitable war with the Ukraine following it. The best way for Russia to achieve this goal is to arm Novorussia to the teeth, to provide much more humanitarian support then now, to try re-launch as much of the Novorussian economy as possible (preferably by investments and contracts, not just grants) and generally help to make Novorussia as viable as possible under the current conditions. If the Novorussian could repeat their amazing feat once more and repel or, even better, deter the future Ukrainian attack this would be a crushing defeat not only for the junta in Kiev, but also for all its supporters in the AngloZionist Empire. The "equation" is simple: if Novorussia can stand up to the Ukrainians and Russia is not forced to intervene the Nazi regime in Kiev is finished along with the entire Neocon plan against Russia. If Russia is forced to intervene, Novorussia will be saved and the junta finished, but the Neocons plan will have succeeded and Russia will suffer a major geostrategic setback
Russia desperately needs more time and I expect the Russian diplomacy to try every possible delaying tactic imaginable to buy as much time as possible before the inevitable Ukrainian attack on Novorussia. I am even willing to consider that the recent sale (really, a gift) of coal to Kiev might be such a delaying tactic, I don't know. What is clear for me that most of these delaying tactics will look like "appeasement" to the external observer and that, in the end, our perception of these moves will depend on our assumptions and, basically, our take on the person of Vladimir Putin. I might be wrong, but I personally trust him and short of very strong evidence I will never believe that he will "sell out" Novorussia or anybody else in the Ukraine. Not only do I believe that he is way too smart to do such a stupid and self-defeating thing, but I have also come to the conclusion that he is a highly principled person who will never betray the people he took an oath to defend.
My very tentative "guesstimates" for 2015:
2014 has been a historic year and so will be 2015, if only because 2014 set a great deal of things in motion, but resolved none of them. I have come to the conclusion that there is a 80% chance of a massive Ukrainian attack on Novorussia next year, probably in the first part of the year. My best guesstimate is that Novorussia will probably be able to beat back this attack, albeit with great effort and big losses. The Russian economy will continue to suffer and appear to be sinking for the next six months or so at which point it will gradually start reversing that trend. The EU economy will enter into full and deep recession resulting in widespread social unrest. As for the USA, they probably will be able to pretend like nothing big, not big disaster, is happening, if only thanks to the money printing machine and the best propaganda machine in history. What the US will be unable to do is to prevent the gradual but inexorable de-dollarization of more and more of the world economy, lead by China and Russia. The true and final collapse of the AngloZionist Empire is inevitable, but not for the next couple of years.
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Marching in the streets and throwing Molotov cocktails is not the way to change your president last time I checked. And regarding the so-called elections held in Ukraine since the illegal coup last winter they were a total farce (see videos of opposition people being beaten and/or threatened as an example).
Also, if I am not mistaken wasn't there an election already scheduled prior to the coup taking place?? It appears to me that the reason the thugs took to the streets and fomented the over-throw of the duly elected president is they were scared that Yanokovic would be re-elected.
Good post!
aint no good guys aint no bad guys . i live in america cant talk about russia except to say lots of people want to leave to come west because their system is corrupt. just like the good ole usa ha ha. like i said aint no good guys aint no bad guys none of the ptb care one bit about the people of their respective countries. its all a big game and we are all pawns in it. awake pawns but still pawns
Natalia Poklonskaya's New Year's Message:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=187PtO46Wsk
Crimea's Head Prosecutor
S Novim Godem
S novym schastyem!
I am glad to see Nicholas II on her desk and how she made reference to him. I am hopeful that the Russians realize the Bolshevik evil was the same New York City banksters and London/German bankster non-Christian murderers who killed Nicholas II family, including children, and 25 million innocent Christian Russians.
Russians saw the same evil vermin when the oligarchs were looting Russia and Putin stopped them.
Very interesting read.
Seems to me that Russia and China have the one thing that the west is sorely lacking -- coherence in their short and long term plans. It virtually assures that the world will look vastly more to the east over the next 5-10 years. I know that I am, i used to see the U.S as the center of modern civilization, now it just looks like a crime scene.
One vast crime scene it is.
Russia has oil, a $2 trillion economy, a military that is a small fraction of what it once was, and nukes.
Putin pissed off the Saudis and the USA, so now the price of oil is in the dumps. And they have economic sanctions from the West.
Putin sure is "winning."
The price of oil is a result of decreased DEMAND and the lower price is crushing the US economy much more than that of Russia...
Yeah those 'leaders of industry' in the west must be terrified of having lower production costs for their exports, and i'm sure all those party members sons in china are hating this boost to their 'companies' export profit margins.
Sarc?
It's tough to export and push a commodity that nobody wants due to a glut.
I am sure the folks in North Dakota and Texas and the entire shale community will be fine.....that is sarcasm.
The EU military after the end of Cold War was slashed so drastically so now it is almost non-existent. Russia has enough military forces to deter the US, the rest of the West is just negligible.
The economic sanctions is the most funny thing. The West with their own hands are destroying globalist agenda in which they invested and succeeded so much before. They are causing some painful but sustainable problems to Russia while undermining the very foundation of their own admittedly brilliant entire planet profit extraction scheme. They are fracturing the world market into isolated segments encouraging creation of new independent financial services that bypass so far ubiquitous control of Western banking.
This is nothing but symptoms of Alzheimer's disease for the West. They somehow remember that they managed to destroy the USSR, vaguely recollect that low oil prices had something to do with that. But they are already unable to think clearly, they forget that extending Western banking system control over Russian and Eastern bloc finances, natural and human resources, abandoning expensive nuclear race was a win that enabled a decade of prosperity. Now they are willing to give up the win to show off how important they are by mere repeating the trick. They cannot grasp that by now it has no purpose but a likelihood of pushing the situation into opposite direction -- towards Chinese taking it over for themselves.
Putin has a Ph.D. He has surrounded himself with people who can't be bought. He is principled. He looks like he is devoted to his country.
People like Victoria Nuland are who he is fighting against.
They have already war gamed this and are onto the tenth big move.
Great article.
"Putin has a Ph.D. He has surrounded himself with people who can't be bought. He is principled."
Are you serious? Putin's Russia is a cleptocracy. They are all in it for the money. Putin has ammassed apersonal fortune estimated at $70 billion, all as a government employee of one sort or another.
Yep, he's got principles - he is principled enough to throw political oppenents in jail, to jail people who have property he wants, to throw his wife into an insane asylum so he can cavort with toned, hard bodied olympian hotties. If this is your hero....
Are you serious? Putin's Russia is a cleptocracy.
Bullshit, pure and simple. This is the message that the Anglo-Zionists have been trying to force down the throats of the western population for the last 2 years or so. As indicated in the article, Putin has had the most success of any world leader in opposing the aspirations of the Anglo-Zionists - and that's why they hate him (and fear him) so much.
WTF do you think the USA is, you moron?
This.
BS
You know nothing about these subjects
media dumb you down much?
We don't need posters, we have 24/7 talking heads that vomit forth the states propaganda.
Huh???
2014 has been a very informative year and one of tectonic and in hind sight, perhaps logical conclusions, a match between international giants, Russia v West...
1) The stopping of Syrian regime change - ignited the rest of the year. No piped energy supplies to Turkey via Syria this year, and as we will see below, likely never:
Russia 1 – West 0.
2) The subsequent US/EU takeover of Kiev was clearly something the Russians did not want, but as soon as it succeeded, Russia knew their primary objective was the takeover of Crimea, to save their ages-old military base and a strategic asset that has been important to Russia since well before the Crimean War of 1853 to 1856:
Russia 2 – West 1.
3) The not-so-civil war in Ukraine, has seen ‘gains’ on both sides, with a Novorossia entity in the Donbas and a military stalemate for now. Personally I do not see this making any further differences to the final result, whatever NATO throw at it, Russia will match like-for-like and will not allow it to fall back into Western control. If anything, Russia stands to gain more, due to the economic collapse of Ukraine and if more hostilities begin, an opportunity to covertly grab more territory for Novorossia, all the way to Odessa if necessary. Russia are helping with energy, money and food, because this is all about Ukrainian humanity, without the basic needs of life. Russia won’t be drawn into an overt war; they will use international law, diplomacy, intelligence, attrition, stealth, deception and military technology, like they appear to have done in Syria and Crimea. They will wait until the ‘enemy’ is not looking, worn down and tired out. NATO can’t up-the-ante or beat the drum faster, to get Russia to dance and ‘invade’, because the take-over of more territory will be covert and always justified on humanitarian and legal grounds:
Russia 3 – West 2.
4) MH-17 crash is widely seen as a false flag, to draw in NATO country support and public opinion – blame it on Russia and so “let’s get the sanctions rolling harder.” Russia have taken a truthful line, whilst the West, secrecy and misinformation. This is an international plane crash after all – why the secrecy? Back peddling by the West, against a brick wall and an obvious Western false flag are an obvious own-goal:
Russia 4 – West 2.
5) The sanctions are hurting Russia, but more so the EU. Another net own-goal. The financial sanctions are even worse, making EU exports to Russia more expensive, an effective financial barrier to trade, but this time across the board, not just food imports, now cars and the rest of it. Net own-goal number two. The sanctions push Russia faster towards China and India, removing the need for SWIFT (and Western leverage) and eroding Dollar reserve status some more, with currency swaps and international bartering. I’ll say another net own-goal here, but it’s really several own-goals, all rolled into one. We’ll leave it at three net own-goals in total then, for this little tussle.
Russia 7 – West 2.
6) The South Stream debacle will go down in history, as the greatest geopolitical mistake of the century, as it hands Russia a number of future goals on a plate, and a number of losses for the Western cabal. Cancelling South Stream (SS), delays the project by at least a year, removes from the EU some nice-to-have transit fees, removes the direct-supply discount from Gazprom and takes a great deal of energy-geopolitical control from Europe. At least two more net own-goals here:
Russia 9 – West 2.
7) The SS-debacle-effect will expand further during and beyond 2015; Russia has more goals in the pipeline (pun intended). The new pipe will now go to Turkey, providing Putin with a powerful Syria-soothing-balm, he can rub into Erdogan’s shoulders for years to come. But it gets even balmier. For a few weeks now, diagrams of the new Turkey-Stream pipe have assumed it will be following the current Blue Stream pipe vertically-south and join the Nabuccu project, but wait a sec, no it won’t. It appears the SS pipe will come ashore in Turkey at the most extreme North-Western tip, near the Greek border, not join-up with Nabuccu at the closest point - hundreds of miles further East. So Putin also kills Nabuccu’s Western extension – goal! But this gives Putin even more advantage. The SS pipe will in fact be four pipes, each 32inch diameter, carrying just over 15 bcm of gas per pipe. If the first SS pipe to Turkey and gas hub goes well, it will go to Greece, the former Yugoslavia, then to Italy, via Serbia and Montenegro, along with the second pipe. All through the EU’s least favourite nations first. In international Black Sea waters, Gazprom will likely add a Y piece and valve to each pipe from the beginning. If geopolitics demand it, Putin can easily redirect flow and new pipes directly to Greece, Bulgaria or both. But I suspect Turkey will continue to play ball with Russia for a long, long time. So geopolitically, Putin, by 2018, gains up to five major wins – Turkey: duly balmed, and soothed about Syria, being Gazprom’s new major wholesaler to Europe; Western-Nabucco now uneconomic 4ever, EU-grexit-fluxed-Greece; Unsettled-shuttered-trounced-and-contained-Serbia, Pro-EU-Wombled-Uncle-Bulgaria. All with quite different geopolitical outlooks and aspirations, now playing for the Russian team:
Russia 14 – West 2.
I love World Cup football, and if I ever see a match between Russia and (West) Germany, with a Russian win of 9-2 at full-time, or 14-2 in 2015 injury-time, I think this looks like a one-sided match to me; it goes above and beyond the football alone, just like geopolitics is usually just about resources, but also geography and politics really does make a difference, as 2014 has clearly shown.
So the events of 2014 totally shape the following years, meaning that 2015 will be a year of enlightenment, of punditry-waffle and lording over the whys and wherefores. The German coach and manager will be summarily sacked, for ‘family reasons’; Match of the Day will provide endless slow-motion replay and analysis, some photoshopped satellite imagery perhaps, and maybe, God forbid, some actual video proof!
For me though, the Goal of the Year 2014 will be the SS debacle. With the match at 7-2 to Russia, their main striker, Gazprom Miller, is standing just feet from an open German goal mouth, seemingly Miller is uninterested. German defenders are running around him in circles with the ball, passing it to-and-fro, trying to look skilled, cool and playing with fire, right in their own six-yard box. “What are they doing? They’re making no attempt to clear the ball!” But thankfully and eventually they seem to come to their senses and pass it back to the German goalkeeper – Hans EU Merkel. Phew, that was close! But then, the goalie kicks the ball hard, right into the back of Gazprom’s legs! “Take zat, Russian!” Gazprom smarts a little, but inevitably, the ball deflects back into the German net, and gives us the best own-goal in history!
Like football - 2014 geopolitics, have been a beautiful game this year, and way better than any pay-per-view football channel. 2015 will be a grand finale and I can’t wait to see the score at the end of it!
Interesting, whats your take on the reason for the ukrainian govt supplying free electricity, gas and water to all donbass residents while still paying them a pension from the state 's coffers?
Just good PR or actual morality?
And your points above are hopes and aspirations not facts on the ground but i gave you a plus 1 for the username, Excellent Name!
I guess all that free electricity and payment of their pensions (which they are entitled to by the way) are a good trade-off for having over 4,000 of your civilian population MURDERED by the fucking Nazi's in Kiev, right?
No not in my opinion, but then to me human life has value, if you think letting people die is ok just so you can have have free energy and a pension then you should become a US congressman.
EDIT: it appears ZH has at least one US congressman in its membership.
Funny how you neglect to mention the discounted electricity that Russia is providing to the Ukraine.
http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/27/2155
Coal too:
http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/27/2156
Interesting commentary in the article below pointing out that the utter collapse of Ukraine has been prevented by the grace of Putin.
"To sum up, the financial system, the banking system, jobs, the balance of trade, heating and the energy sector: all of this exists in Ukraine only because of Putin’s goodwill."
http://en.ukraina.ru/opinions/20141231/1011677965.html
How much of that coal came from the donbass?
And Ukraina.ru as an independant source?
From the first lines of that article
'If we take a detached view of the situation in Ukraine, a view from the sidelines, it becomes clear that despite the massive flow of propaganda in the Ukrainian media with regard to "Russian aggression" and even the “war with Russia,” the Ukrainian economy has not yet slipped into final chaos and default, thanks solely to Vladimir Putin’s goodwill'
They condemn ukie propaganda without acknowledging russian propaganda, shirley if you take a detached view of the situation in Ukraine then you acknowledge the role both sides propaganda has in the confict.
You cant be serious?
PS.
Ukie electric is free, russia's is only discounted....tho to be fair the ukes only got spare energy coz russia is still suppllying em, lol
.
Not much, considering that the Donbass coal mines have been targets of Ukrainian artillery for months.
You prefer Ukie propaganda? OK, here is Ukie confirmation on the purchase of Russian coal and electricity by the Kiev Yatzi Junta:
http://en.censor.net.ua/news/318514/poroshenko_confirms_purchase_of_coal...
http://en.censor.net.ua/news/318348/ukraine_offers_russian_federation_to...
...and we all know how the Ukies are about paying their bills.
Everthing I have read says that Kiev stopped paying all pensions and social security to anyone outside the area they controlled i.e anyone in Donbas. Furthermore Kiev then cut all banking links so that any money deposited in Kiev based banks could not be withdrawn without going West to a bank, then running riskd of highway robberey on the way home. Can you provide a link showing this has changed please?
I believe that Kiev may have deployed the argument that stopping the payments paid for the energy.
They still get their pensions from Ukraine govt in donbass and crimea based on citizenship but they change their address to show themselves as living in govt controlled areas, then once a month they cross over the border and get the cash payment.
Seems to work for most of them, they also get ration cards from the DPR govt, tho they dont always have enought stock in for them to be redeemed.
Yes they run the risk of robbery every time they do it from 'troops' of both sides.
True, the banks no longer work at all in crimea but some did still operate in DPR areas under agreements with local commanders, most have been looted tho.
well...they are not...
but since Ukraine still owe Russia for many many billions value gas, it would be kinda white of them if they did...
not to be expected from "Reds" Oligarchies..
steal and kill is their forte...
what they supply is mostly maim and death
i
Another phantasm created by fake nestor. Gas in Novorussia is coming from new pipes laid down from Russia. You can find the Porko video where he says no pensions, no schools, their kids can hide in their basements <under shelling>, while other Ukraine kids go to school.
Its true, my superpower is creating phantasms......
You Fekkin Ejit.
Go spew some more lies you make up on the fly. Your gonna need another new id because you've shown you have no credibility.
excellent summary on the year 2014. thank you.
I think you should check again your scorecard
http://www.businessinsider.com/ruble-plunging-again-2014-12
http://www.forexpf.ru/currency_usd.asp
(comment moved)
A lot of Europeans are still in a dream world thinking South Stream is not dead. Big German companies, the poor saps in Bulgaria and many others. South Stream would have been major money for Bulgaria as well as southern Europe which is dying under the EU boot heel.
If Putin can pull Greece away from the EU and NATO it would be a coup. I think Greece is too FU'ed up for Russia to want to get involved. The Greeks have to decide.
The Ukriane NWO coup and fiasco has really hurt Europe.
Fine analysis from an ex-military analyst who is obviously a "academic professional" that is looking at the U.S. Russia problem in isolation to Eastern Europe.
What he leaves out are the most salient fact(s) that the U.S. has been at war in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the rest of the Middle East going on 14 years which has cost the U.S. taxpayer dearly to the tune of more than $3 trillion and counting and has no compunction whatsoever of losing it's feudal jersey walled and barbed wired embassy cities... Lets not leave out the morale of those American GIs, marines, sailors and airmen that will fight the biggest of wars that will end their short lives if it goes either conventional or nuclear in Eastern Ukraine? Oh and lest I forget that growing population of Americans living on the fringes that will be on the hook for paying for it "all" with no jobs who are getting more restless by the hour in places like Ferguson and Manhattan!...
My question is simple. With what money will the U.S. start an open ended confrontation with a formidable conventional force of crack Russian paramilitary and air force, navy and army forces?
And I haven't even gotten to the biggest question mark of all if the U.S. decides to use all of Western Europe as bait for a "non-conventional" resource exchange!
In short this read is just like what the guys and girls at the Fed would produce. Something that is disconnected and unmoored from reality completely!
Good questions you raise, as usual worth reading but not necessarily agreeing with your conclusions. But I'm disappointed with your slam at the end. Go read SakerVineyard a bit, and you will find a thoughtful, vulnerable, self-critical and utterly committed enemy of the Empire who is communicating with a broad spectrum of players and trying to make sense of the evidence.
As for your argument that the US can't possibly be planning a military attack on Russia because it makes no sense to you, how do you know you understand how the Masters of the Empire really see the situation? These are arrogant and ruthless people who have to be becoming very nervous - and who may have visions of guillotines dancing through their heads. Unless we have someone we completely trust who has been privy to their most private conversations on their yachts and private clubs telling us what they are saying privately, it would be folly to assume they won't do what they are openly and visibly preparing to do.
They may be nuttier and more evil than we can imagine.
They may be nuttier and more evil than we can imagine.
And this is exactly where I was going and am simpatico with your concluding statement.
The only thing I would add to it is that they are that nuts. But if they think they can win either in a conventional or non-conventional wrestling match with the "bear" in their present condition and state of being (spiritually, ethically and financially) bankrupt they understand clearly it will be a short and sweet end for whatever remaining ambitions they might have left!
Under those circumstances and like all cowards they are, they will more than likely think twice before "loading that gun"!
Great analysis. I believe he is right about buying time. The Western economic situation is much worse that admitted by the MSM, we all know that. The FED and the plunge protection team are only buying time themselves by printing fiat and propping up the markets. The manufacturing strength of the US was shipped off to China years ago. The empire is unsustainable. Those still with us won't be for long, especially as the dollar grows in strength, making it almost impossible for the EM to pay back what they borrowed on the cheap. With enough time, the BRICS will just keep adding new member countries as they offer a better and more stable system. With each addition, the banking empire of the west will degrade, the economy will degrade, and the power of the west will fail. I love my country as well, but I'd rather go through a few years of hardship than see the banksters win. We can always rebuild (after the banksters are all in jail) and come out better in the end. The Deep-State that is in charge of the USA presently is what really scares me. These fools have grown too big for their britches. When things start to collapse around them, they will start WWIII, grasping for straws and to deflect blame.
As for the puppet EU, I hope this analyst is correct and the good people of Europe revolt against Brussels. Thy don't need these banker owned dictators. Let's pray for the Greeks, who have a chance to rock the EU boat this month by voting strongly for Syriza. The euro-banksters must be shaking in their boots right about now.
This really is a shame. Russia really wanted peace and trade with the west, not an alliance with China, but Nuland and her merry band of neocons, forced them into it. Perhaps two more years is all the alternative media needs to reach more people. MSM has less viewers by the day. Perhaps in 2016, if we last that long, enough Americans will be awake to change the power structure in DC though elections. I don't have much hope for that, but there always is some small chance of it.
As for ZH, happy 6th anniversary. Keep up the great work. Even my 17 year old son started reading ZH everyday. He doesn't understand everything, but he is really starting to get it. It's good to see him grow up.
Happy New Year everyone!
Glad to see this superb blog on these pages Tyler. A refreshing antidote to the liestream media that features some brilliant analysis by russian intellectuals of what is going on in that part of the world. A someshat obscure gem...but not for long now.
in reading Saker's stuff, there always seems to be an undercurrent of whether Putin will remain loyal to UE.
Putin will remain loyal to RU, imho, irregardless of what happens to UE. The UE will be a covert, battleground for a long time coming.
NATO is BS. So having NATO stationed in UE is inconvenient but not insurmountable. But without a stable state NATO cannot function in UE and UE is not stable. And who in blazes from the EU is going to be the 1st to strike RU. DE?, IT?, UK?, CN?, PL?
It doesn't really matter, that the UE military budget is 5%. 5% of nothing is still nothing. Without IMF funds there is no budget. Has DE, FR, and the rest of this european circle-jerk raised their military budgets?, by how much?
None of this is going to happen in the winter months because the gas pipelines will magically explode. The EU knows this. They are held hostage by the amis and RU. The biggest loser here is the EU and if GR goes out of the union, the whole thing will fall apart and RU will gain some powerful friends as other countries will start bailing out. And then we will see how much of a stranglehold the ussa has on europe except for DE, FR, and PL.
Time is the big factor here. RU is not running out of time. UE, EU and USSA are running out of time.
This game has a long way to go and Rusputin's list is getting longer.
Brzezinski and Hillary have to be the two most overrated strategic heads in the western pantheon. Brzezinski as a pole carries the weight of an immense hatred for Russia. If he was really such a deep thinker he would recognize that every misfortune suffered by Poland in the last 300 years has ultimately come from the west. Hillary-where do I start? An egomaniacal yale feminist, and not much else. About as stupid and self-centered as George W., but with a vagina.
Ultimately Russia wins by persevering, and they are very good at that. America, with the attention span of a gnat, is in way over its head. The end game is simply chaos, with complete legal immunity and deniability for the leadership. Throw in some good looting along the way and it's 'win-win', as they say.
China is on board for global governance, but it's going to be run by them, not graduates of the Kennedy School and a handful of western bankers/billionares.
Hillary-where do I start? An egomaniacal yale feminist, and not much else. About as stupid and self-centered as George W., but with a vagina.
"."
I believe you're mistaken on "it" carrying a female package though. She's got a bigger pair than Cheney, Rumsfeld and G.W. combined along with the "blue and white" star of approval!
I'd love to know which agency the dickhead who downvoted you works for.
Regarding bozo's who misrepresent ZH as some sort of Putinbot outfit, here are the latest viewer stats from alexa.com for zero hedge, one of the most viewed websites on the planet. Yep, it's that popular, well alright it's ranked at 2,115, but thats pretty good.
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.4.1 Country Percent of Visitors Rank in Country United States 46.8% Canada 5.8% United Kingdom 5.4% Netherlands 4.1% Australia 3.0%The 2015 grand finale might prove to be the game of the millennium, where Russia v West play for our very lives; a game of geopolitical football that might go something like this...
1) Russia will focus rightly on humanitarian international law and diplomacy, as they have mastered in the last year and several previous, recent years, on the world stage. They will put the West, right in a serious, legal spotlight and score an early goal, just a few minutes after kick-off. Mistral will be the first trade dispute, placed on a new legal footing for all to see, but this is merely a one-two pass to Churkin and then Lavrov, who will between them, dribble past the Anglo-German defenders, not unlike Paul Gascoign did so well in England v Germany:
Russia 1 – West 0
2) Oil will go to $20 and gas to $1, with the Rouble at 150 per Euro or less valuable in Western currencies. Killing US shale and Russia will trade in not-Dollars for exports, leaving their costs in Roubles. With Russia’s moves to their own SWIFT system, and connecting up with their Eurasian partners, plus China, Iran and India; currency swaps and international bartering, will blunt the impact of financial sanctions and improve Russia’s pivot to Asia, in the first half of 2015. Exports from the West to Russia will largely dry up, due to unfavourable exchange rates, whilst the temptation to buy Russian exports will be too good to pass up, mostly large scale projects, like state-of-the-art nuclear power projects, at $6 billion a pop, giving some useful foreign currency reserves:
Russia 2 – West 0
3) With world-market oil and gas prices in the toilet, Russia will see these supplies as a loss-leader to the West and thus will have a major incentive to pull the plug at any time that suits them. Gazprom and Rosneft will be losing money for each barrel of oil or cubic meter of gas they pump, unless the EU pays well above spot price – about three times above. If they do play ball, Russia will see their revenues rise considerably, with three times the amount of Roubles in those foreign currencies, laughing all the way to their bank. If the EU says no, we won’t play, oil and gas supplies will dry up – using all manner of plausible excuses, leaving the EU without Russian energy. When deflation hits supermarket shelves, you get empty shelves – uneconomic trade always dries up. Whoever or whatever is lowering energy prices, the result will be damaging to US shale revenues and EU energy supply:
Russia 3 – West 0
4) The sanctions, Ukraine, Syria and Iran, have all created a very unfriendly environment between Russia and the West, so it will be time to bring out a few skeletons in the Western cupboards that Russia now feels, it is the right time to expose. Palestine, 9/11, Guantanamo, MH-17, Hiroshima/Nagasaki, the exploits of the British Empire and United States will make ample feeding pastures for humanitarian lawyers that see no statute-of-limitations. All are areas the West would like to see remain, well under the carpet; and with the 2015 spring-time in the air, Russia will be in the mood for some spring cleaning. If the exchange rates don’t kill off Western exports to Russia completely, then this is little volcano will, or at least finish it off. Given Russia’s territory and neighbours, this can only be a major net loss for the West, even if it merely provides a newsworthy backdrop:
Russia 4 – West 0
5) Nord Stream supplies Russian gas direct to Germany, and a number of factors above threaten it directly. In the meantime, Turkey Stream will start to be laid, and further Russian team players will be attracted. Greece may end up out of the Euro and austerity (either by politics or military coup), opening up a geopolitically smoother transition to Russian supplied gas to the former-Yugoslavia. Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro will eventually form a non-bloc alliance, to see a convenient Russian gas route to Italy. If Italy bounces out of the Euro too, it will be all the more certain and rapid - Italy are already big Russian partners. Nord Stream will be a gun to Germany’s head, to get gas to Italy, via Greece and the former-Yugoslavia; with a hair-trigger finger, due to lowering gas prices, Russia will have to be handled gently, so as not to pull it. After gas gets to Italy, then Bulgaria will get their connection made:
Russia 5 – West 0
6) NATO tries to take-over Novorossia with overt military assistance and Russia provides like-for-like covert military assistance to Donbas, on the grounds of humanitarian aid and peace keeping, but also indicts NATO for war crimes with the ICC regarding Ukraine, Libya and Serbia. Russia’s new 2015 laws will prevent trade with countries or alliances indicted by the ICC, for war-crimes or crimes against humanity; all NATO trade will be suspended and under the new Russian law, Gazprom and Rosneft will have to turn the energy taps off, without warning or delay and other goods transit will be stopped. This will be game-over for NATO countries that rely on Russian energy or trade, unless they leave NATO and appeal to Russia for an exemption. So this round will do a number of things: it will begin to right a few wrongs; stop NATO as a loose cannon; and potentially knock a few countries off NATO - like Greece, Turkey, Italy, the Baltics and others.
Russia 6 – West 0
7) In the autumn of 2015, the geopolitical turmoil in Europe moves into overwhelming-gear, with NATO severely challenged, the Euro challenged to breaking point, and inevitably, the EU experiment itself, threatened with extinction. Russia will continue to demonstrate that there is another viable path for prosperity, trade and energy, to any state that wants an alternative, and they meant it when they said “sanctions are counter-productive.” That might prove to be the biggest understatement of the century:
Russia 7 – West 0
Rasputin, +1 for some good analysis and thinking in your first post. This article by The Saker however goes to a deeper level, but one that I would argue does not go deep enough. I don't know of one that does. Your calls for 2015 are interesting, but I wouldn't bet my money on any of them - because to predict the future it is not enough to see the trends, you have to understand the dynamics that drive events, and you have several missing pieces.
The AA Empire is playing economic chicken with Russia and China, and as you pointed out is scoring own-goals. But this is not all farce. Russia and China are indeed terribly vulnerable, as is virtually every nation on Earth. Certainly every BRICS nation. And the Empire is playing a dangerous game of setting off (or threatening to set off) revolutions to discipline non-compliant nation states. This can and will blow up in their faces, but following the play will require a score card with a new dimension.
The International Banksters' use of the Bolsheviks to detonate the internal contradicitons of the Russian Empire could perhaps be described as the most spectacular self-goal in history, as they could not possibly have intended the terrifying wave of anti-capitalist revolutions that ensued. They've evidently forgotten that lesson.
The world economy continues to reel from shock to shock, sliding ever faster into the Great Unwinding, and the leaders of every nation, mostly puppets controlled by their own oligarchs and the global banksters in multiple ways, find themselves unable to deliver for their people on jobs, income and social services. It is becoming a catastrophe for regular folk.
Russia is unusual in having a leadership which is still capable of challenging the sector of its own oligarchs that has aligned with or is beholden to the Empire, in still having the capacity to self-finance, and having some infrastructure, traditions and popular support left over from Soviet days to actulally take direction of its own economy and steer investments into reindustrializing. And Putin has a huge well of popular support to draw on as the costs of the crisis fall on the people. But as this article brings out, it will involve a huge struggle power struggle within the new Russian ruling class, and between them and the organized Russian people, one whose outcome is unknown. And the Empire is using all its considerable assets and connections in Russia to fish in these troubled waters.
Putin's strategy depends on the alliance with China, but as China's economy is going down hard, their leadership is undoubtedly riven by the stress of the unfolding fiasco, and the Empire is working those conflicts relentlessly.
Deng's claim - that Marxism prescribes the development of capitalism first, then communism - was perhaps a self-serving manifesto of those who wanted to get rich but it is still part of the Chinese story, the ruling doctrine. China now faces a choice between the nationalists who will try to write off the economic carnage (and much of the wealth of the oligarchs) and take charge of a new economic direction and those oligarchs - like Saker's "Atanticists" - who value their money and power above all and will turn to the Empire for support. The question history will put before the Chinese people then will be "whose Communist Party is it?" Putin's Russia has huge stakes in the outcome, and will undoubtedly weigh in if able. But always there looms the spectre of a "revolution from the bottom" - and either way, of a period of chaos when China cannot effectively act as Russia's strategic partner.
As for the BRICS, few countries on Earth are more overdue for a revolution than India, which sorely needed one in 1950, and South Africa is overdue and on the brink. Brazil also is riven by contradictions, its independent leaders standing on a shaky base of popular support. The entire BRiCS alliance thus is built on a foundation of high explosives, an unstable platform for a new world financial system, and the Empire is fighting back by tossing in blasting caps.
I don't know where you go to follow the game at this level of analysis. You get some of it at GlobalResearch.ca. Its strengths and weaknesses are on display in yesterday's post by Rodrique Tremblay:
2015: “Year of the Militaristic Neocons”: Looming Global Financial Crisis and Wars?http://www.globalresearch.ca/2015-year-of-the-militaristic-neocons-loomi...
Regular readers of ZH will see blind spots in Prof. Tremblay's survey of the play at the top, and on the other hand, like Tyler (and even the awesome Saker) he doesn't look down through the layers of bankers and capitalists, military and economic structures, political parties and leaders to the level of regular folk in the trenches on the ground organizing to deal with the collapse.
Yes, it's an exciting game to watch, but I think we still don't have an adequate playbook.
Backing up a taste let us think over the Cold War, the outcome, and the present moment.
The present moment is the $710 trillion derivative bubble. http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-size-of-the-derivatives-bubble-hanging-...
All players in the global great game know if this bubble pops at the wrong moment in the wrong way the global market economy is dead. Russia and China are hostages to this as much as the West. Everyone then obeys rules that keep this bubble alive.
In recalling the demise of the USSR and the rise of Putin I think it helps to enquire who Gorbachev worked for and to ponder if the demise of the USSR was a scheduled demolition that went awry.
Putin may have been brought in to restructure the planned merger.It is possible everything we see is intended to benefit the rise of China. China being firmly in globalist hands.
A dimension worth considering, but history is a lot messier than that.
Here you go, from English encyclopedia:
„There is a tiny group of people in Central Europe called the Sorbs or Wends who lived in the area between the Elbe and Oder rivers for centuries until they were subdued and assimilated by the Germans in the late Middle Ages. They have no contemporary relation to the Balcanic Serbs (although they are both Slavic, of course). Their most important cities are Cottbus, Lübben and Bautzen. They are the descendants of the Western Slavs who in 6th-10th Centuries controlled what is today north-eastern Germany.“
Here you are, that region today inhabited by Wends or the Sorbs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germany_sorbian_region.png
And now, let us go to our Serbian origins and see what Western historical books and encyclopedias are telling about it. Here you go, feast upon Western lies!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:White_serbia_white_croatia01.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Migration_of_Serbs.png
You see how contradicting Western stories are, hm? But then, Saxons were always exeptionaly „crafty“ with lies and deceptions, far more than the Jews, I'd say, which does say a lot about that Germanic tribe.
// '; filtry.appendChild(div); }); })(); // ]]>// '; filtry.appendChild(div); }); })(); // ]]>// '; filtry.appendChild(div); }); })();]]>@ BraveSirRobin & chindit13
You are no more intelligent than the crabs nesting in your pubic hair.
Of course, NATO has no plans to invade Russia. Their plan was to provoke Russia into invading Ukraine. AND THEN INVADING RUSSIA. Natch, Putin didn't fall for it.
Nuland did not outsmart Putin with her Maidan Coup. Putin opted for permanent Russian oblasthood for Crimea, rather than another year of Viktor Yanukovych's presidency and the CIA spending billions on every election thereafter.
Now Crimea is part of Russia and not part of Ukraine. And Russia can keep as much arms and men there with approval from Kiev.
DID NEITHER OF YOU IDIOTS SEE THE PICTURE OF JOHN O. BRENNAN IN THE MAIDAN A MONTH BEFORE THE COUP?
WHAT WAS THE DIRECTOR OF THE CIA DOING IN UKRAINE, KIEV MAIDAN, EXCEPT PASSING OUT MONEY TO THE UKRAINIAN NAZIS, AND GUARANTEEING THE WEST'S CONDONING THEIR RUTHLESS BEHAVIOR.
I wonder why Vlad does not follow the advice of Paul Craig Roberts and stop all sales of energy to NATO countries? Or back the ruble with gold, even partial? Or stop all deliveries of gas and oil to the Nazi's in Ukraine? Or default on Russia's debt...even temporarily, to trigger the US derivative meltdown? One thing is certain, Vlad is far more intillegent that BathHouse Barry... or the imbecile sheep BraveSirRobin.
loveyajimbo
Because is the adult and demonstrating his bona fides and Russia's responsibilities to those European nations who are economically under the thumb of the US.
This attack on Russia's economy by sanctions hasn't been going on for that long and none of us know the extent of the blank check China has written.
Living through historical events is like watching paint dry. Much better to read about them on a beach in Fiji sipping a mai tai.
The Russians seem to be very good with their agreements. They seem to stick to them unlike another country and Poppy Bush.
They will keep supplying Europe with energy but they should not send any to the Ukraine unless they pay up. The NovoRussia areas should be supplied. The people of Russia have been doing a great job providing humanitarian aid.
The Saker describes Russia's archenemy as "The AngloZionist Empire". The string-pullers of the faces of leadership in this empire are supremely adept at long range and long term strategic planning. Furthermore, they have access to most of the world's resources and outright control over a considerable portion of them. As a life-long opponent of Zionism (the Jewish version of fascism), I am hoping that Russia can outwit and outmaneuver the Empire. But as a student of history, I understand that Russia is much weaker than the empire in a strategic sense. No matter how much better as tacticians the Russians may be, they have to play their hands better than the AngloZionists at every turn, while the Zionists can afford to bumble and stumble for a while and still achieve their ultimate ends.
Developing a functioning military and economic alliance with China could very well create a strategic balance with the AngloZionists; but at best, the Russians will be an equal partner in such an alliance. Eventually, Russia will become a junior partner, like Britain or Canada, or Japan are to the United States. And keep in mind that the Zionists have no friends: they have "tools" and they have "impediments". They regard the Russians as their most serious impediments; and the Chinese as merely coincidental impediments. Part of their strategic planning is turn China from being an impediment into being a tool. Ultimately their aim is to do the same to the Russians, just as they have done to the Germans before them.
It will require a very bold move at just the right point in time, entailing a great deal of risk, for the Russians to turn the tables on the Empire and to gain strategic superiority. The turning points in history may have come at the end of macroeconomic and demographic shifts that evolved over decades; but those historical turning points have been punctuated by wars, in a few cases, especially in the days when kings personally led their armies, by a single battle.
Like the Saker, I am sure that the Russians are preparing for war. But the Russians must surely understand that there will be no outright military attack by NATO. The West will squeeze the Russians into making the first move. But as long as the Russians are thinking of "counterattack" against the seditious actions taken by the West to undermine Russia and the "near abroad", and of limiting their offensive to the eastern part of Ukraine, such military actions will have no beneficial strategic consequences for the Russians, and will bring as many problems to the Kemlin as they will solve. The vast space of the Russian landmass is of no consequence in a military-industrial conflict with the west. Russia will be attacked from a distance and from within, "death by a thousand cuts", so to speak.
So, for the Russian military to achieve strategic superiority over the West, they must strike first and on a much larger scale. For such an attack to have strategic consequences, it must be a surprise attack. And it must also be done without nuclear weapons, which would leave the United States with the dilemma of accepting strategic defeat or bearing the responsibility for initiating nuclear war.
There appears to be an envelope -between 2020 and 2028- when the Russians may have a clear tactical military superiority. That is the period during which the U.S. Navy will have the fewest carriers and fewest submarines; and the U.S. Air Force will still be relying on wornout F-15s and F-16s, because it cannot afford to replenish their air forces with the super-expensive F-35s quickly enough. Who knows what the condition of the American Army will be by then, after decades of fighting low-intensity "4th generation" wars all over Africa and Asia.
There is no guarantee of success, of course. And the destruction in human life and infrastructure could be enormous. So, the Russians are not exactly looking forward to such a war. But the Russians will not accept defeat without a fight this time, unlike 1989. Apparently the Zionist strategic thinkers believe that Russia will cry uncle rather than fight a "last great fight". And, I am sure that they believe that the Russian leaders after Putin will not share his resolve nor match his intellect.
Time is not on the side of the Russians.
'There appears to be an envelope -between 2020 and 2028'
Thats probably why the crisis is happening now........
Also 'lets have a military build up to boost our economy' said every politician ever.
This conflict is playing out on a much shorter time scale than that!
Good analysis with one fundamental flaw. Thanks in in large part laissez faire pro-business policies that began in earnest with Ronny Raygun, the USA (proxy for "Empire") has outsourced most its industrial base to its most powerful potential enemy, China. Ironically enough, the USA's industrial base is precisely why it ended up on top of the heap after WW2 as the head of the "Empire". Hell, even much of the USA's vaunted technology products, including Iphones / Ipads as well as even microprocessors for its high-tech weapons systems, are now being manufactured in China.
The USA's lack of an industrial base is why it will lose big-time in any long protracted conventional proxy shooting war against Russia and/or China (e.g. proxy war in Ukraine, Syria, N. Korea). Of course if the war goes nuke, then everyone is toast. The USA's only hope for "victory" against China and / or Russia is therefore to wage global economic war with it's army of banksters and its mountain of Fiat currency that it has used to enslave the world with its debt. This is exaclty what the USA has been doing since Ronny Raygun (and David Stoockman) "invented" the USA's leveraged debt-based global-scale economic system.
I agree with your comments; but with a bit of historical correction: It was Bill Clinton's unholy alliance with Newt Gingrich in 1994 that brought about NAFTA. Then the two worked together to push through the WTO in 1995. True, the Conservatives during the Reagan and Bush years (they weren't called "NeoCons" until Clinton), pushed for NAFTA and WTO on their own. But it wasn't until Clinton delivered the Democratic Party that these treaties went through (over the objections of a majority of Democrats).
I agree with you that the USA doesn't have the industrial capacity to fight a prolonged conventional war, unless China can somehow be cajoled into abandoning Russia (which I think is improbable). That is why a major surprise attack -if successful (a big if, of course)- would put the USA into the dilemma of accepting strategic defeat or going nuclear.
The F-35 is junk. So says the co-designer of the F-16 and A-10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxDSiwqM2nw
If you think Pierre Sprey is full of it - search for Colonel Boyd. Sprey, Boyd and Colonel Eugene Richinoni (sp) worked on the F-15, F-16 and A-10. They quit on the F-15 because it got too bloated. Colonel Boyd may have been the brightest USAF person on air combat in the history of the USAF. Watch his videos on youtube. Incredibly bright with a full knowledge of production techniques and quality control.
The F-35 is a disaster and the F-22 is not much better. Both planes are far too fragile and expensive to even put in combat.
More:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27qdB1D0s9M
Go to 1:00 in the video and Rand Corp did a war game (Pacific Vision) against the Chinese using F-35, F-22 and F-18s against Chinese Su27,30 and Su35s. The F-35 was a disaster and the F-22 was not much better. The USA would have quickly lost over the Taiwan Straits in this mock battle.
And who is the Rand Corp? This is the blue chip USA think tank in Santa Monica, orginally founded with Douglas Aircraft money. Their job is to war game nuclear war and win it. (sic).
Lockheed Martin was so angry that Rand Corp. had to back peddle their scathing assessment of the F-35.
I have read much of the same material as you have. There is not much good to say about the F-35.
However, several years ago -before the word came out that its pilots were blacking out in the cockpit- I was given a layman's dscription of the F-22 by an Air Force pilot. He endorsed it in the strongest of terms.
The conclusion that I drew from his assessment was that the USAF should have gone ahead with the original request for 360 F-22s and scrapped the F-35. Instead the Air Force should have concentrated on improving the performance and avionics of either the F-15 or F-16 and produced modernized versions of that aircraft.
This has been the choice made by the Russians, incidentally. That is to improve avionics, increase speed and range, and weapons configuration for their existing top of the fine fighters and fighter-bombers. The Russians express the belief that speed, weapons configuration, and maneuverability are more important factors affecting the outcome of aerial combat than stealth is. In that regard, they are closer Colonel Boyd's point of view.
But I am not a pilot. So I try not to make choices between contending viewpoints on the relative merits of one plane/concept over another. I just note how the majority of pundits line up on the issue.
"However, several years ago -before the word came out that its pilots were blacking out in the cockpit- I was given a layman's dscription of the F-22 by an Air Force pilot. He endorsed it in the strongest of terms."
Dig a bit deeper into the F22, and you might be disappointed. Plenty of stories on its flaws on the Net. Without being an utter disaster, it's still not up to nowadays requirements.
Colonel Boyd was a very impressive man. Here is more about him Sprey and Colonel Everest Riccioni
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fighter_Mafia
The russian idea and as you said is closer to Boyd's point of view. Sprey talked about the USAF dream has always been fire a missile from long range to shoot down the enemy plane and good home.
i.e. shooting a Phoenix missile with a range of 100 miles or something. Sprey said it has always been the USAF fantasy and it is a fantasy because air battles are not won that way.
Sprey has pretty much said that the only good planes still around are the F-16 and A-10 which he worked on. I am not sure what he thinks about the F-18.
Riccioni is supposedly still alive and he has had negative comments on the F-35 and I think the F-22.
I think the Rand Corp war game study was pretty telling.
The area where I think America will fall behind Russia and where Russia has made quantum leaps in missiles is software. The USA has a lot of good software programmers but the F-35 software is still a mess. The other area is the Russian appear to have an edge in missile propulsion plus ECM over the USA.
The problem is the US and Pentagon weapons procurement like Wash DC and like America is totally corrupt. Corruption is a cancer killing America.
They have nukes and the moral authority to use them, preparing for war is Putin or his lesser replacement cracking their knuckles.
Russia will not submit to global socialis unless they're calling the shotz.
Why did Ukraine outlaw the speaking of the Russian language?
It would seem to me an unenforceable law, as their languages probably share many words.
They didn't, some nutjob MP put forward a bill to teach all kids in ukrainian language only, it was illegal to teach kids in russian language for all of three days before it was rescinded.
Even the politicians realised how dumb a rule it was.
Kinda like banning spanish being taught in american schools.
Incorrect. As you can see in the last few paragraphs in the link below, the law removing official status of Russian as a second language in Ukraine was actually passed overwhelmingly (232 vs. 37) by the Ukrainian Rada on February 23, 2014. It was vetoed a few days later on February 27th by acting Presdent Turchynov, undoubtedly after some "vigorous" discussions with his PR-savy masters in Washington and Brussels. This was too late though because the true ugly intentions of Kiev towards the ethnic Russian minority had been made clear. Shortly thereafter the bleached-blonde Zionist bankster whore Yulia Tymoshenko added fuel to the fire when she was recorded making her famous comments about nuking 8 million ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_policy_in_Ukraine
My apologies, the bill was passed and it was four days not three.
'true ugly intentions of Kiev towards the ethnic Russian minority had been made clear. '
You are aware that the majority of MP's in kiev at that time were members of the old pro russia party right?
This whole nazi thing is limited to the right sector guys, no one else shares their views, they are simply thought of as tools to secure an independant ukraine, right sector did not even originally support the pro EU group.
Boogity - just want to add that in the intercepted Tymoshenko phone call you are refering to, she was speaking ... Russian.
I disagree. The whole Us vs. Them paradigm is a global propaganda campaign against the 99% by the 1% and their minions. Its about control, about Putin and Clinton and the globally unified ruling class sovietizing the world.
Its what the Germans fought WW2 over.
Putin is in The Big Club. Kim Jong Un is in The Big Club. The Cold War was a lie. Mao was in The Big Club. Gorbechev retired to the United States. This is Cold War 2.0. Oh yes, lots of people will be killed, but they're Little People so they don't matter. All that matters is everything for Party members and nothing for anybody else. Nothing else matters. Nothing.
The 1% have used telecommunications to discover each other and unify forces. It is economical to control populations through indoctrination and propaganda. They own everything and run everything.
You will have to come up with a better game plan.
+1
finally one reasonable comment. history has proven this to be the case, but some people still like to hope that there are some inherently good or virtuous leaders.
this notion can only be fostered by a person who has never held a position significant enough in a society to not become a witness to a struggle in a power-system, which doesn't even have to be a government of any kind, but it's clearly visible in any hierarchical subsystem, like university, corporation etc. to become a leader of a country, one has to be a cut-throat thug or a psychopath, or his/her corpse would lay in the dirt instead of their opponents, because the road to the top is extremely challanging.
even if the leaders don't conspire together, they sure share the same motives and methods, which renders the 99%, if not 99,99%, regardless of their nationality or ideology, their worst enemy.
Government is not reason. It is not eloquence. It is a force, like fire: a dangerous servant and a terrible master. - George Washington
Wow. Pink and red fonts. Just by itself, worth the price of admission.
If this article is the best Russians (of whatever ilk, persuasion, or nationality) can do, no wonder the USSR lost the cold war, and no wonder Russia has been going downhill ever since.
The only chance Russia has is to become China's beatch. That'll work out good. China has a surfeit of males. Putin can kill the corresponding number of Russian males, resulting a surfeit of Russian females exactly matching the surfeit of Chinese males. Based on this CNN article, China has about 52 million more males than females.
I don't know about you, but I think Putin could easily find the time, energy, and resources to liquidate 52 million Russian males. Hey! Maybe he can reward the faithful Russian gov't employees on ZH who spew the 100% Russian propaganda 24/7/365/eternity/infinity/multiverses.
Huh, you guys? Just think. Being China's beatch wouldn't be all bad. You got some fellow Russky you hate? Just do more of Putin's bidding, be rewarded with some gov't-approved number of Russian males you can liquidate, and take your moral, ethical, and justified revenge.
From Vicky Nland's ass you have to come straight to ZH.Now crawl back again into another Jewess' ass.If you have any problem give me a call.
Hey, haven't you heard the party line? Nazis control the Ukranian gov't. All Putin is doing is fighting those fucking Nazis. From the article:
2 - The Ukrainian Junta
For the Nazi regime currently in power things are not going well and unless something changes they are headed for disaster
There are a number of other references in the article specifying that the Ukranian gov't is Nazi.
Now, some logic. Which group is the most anti-Nazi? Yes, the Jews. Therefore, when you derogate the Jews, you essentially define yourself as a Nazi, and thus you support Ukraine, and implicitly give the middle finger to Russia and Putin.
Welcome, pal, to my side of the street.
dudestein...
Everybody with 3/5ths of a brain knows that the nazi regime currently in power refers to the American neocons, run by Victoria Nuland, the nazi Jewess, who dictates everything to the impotent and powerless Poroshenko, including which side of the bed to get out of every morning.
You don't seriously think that man has made a decision by himself since he was elected?
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhah
To a screwdriver, everything needs to get screwed.
OK. Now, a question: Why is a bisexual rapist like a screwdriver?
Did you know there are 16 references to "Nazi" in this article? Yes, 16.
Putin hates Nazis
Jews hate Nazis
Therefore, Putin is a Jew
Yea, syllogisms don't work that way. But, considering "The enemy of my enemy is my friend", maybe Benjy and Vlad have commiserated drinking vodka, telling Nazi jokes. "What do Nazis put on their hot dog buns? Anne Franks".
I actually read this article slowly and carefully, and did some research on some of its allegations. While the article is merciless, extreme, and ruthless advocacy propaganda, I did assume it presented an accurate picture of the current Russian POV vis-a-vis the world. Since the article's breadth was exemplary, it mattered more than other Russky-friendly articles on ZH.
Re Nuland: Who the fuck cares? US foreign policy towards Russia and the Ukraine brouhaha is not very well developed. You must understand: To USA power brokers, Russia is a 3rd- or 4th-rate country.
(Addendum: Re-read the 1st sentence. This ensues relative to your comment: To Nazi haters, everyone is a Nazi.
I understand the Russian hatred of Nazis. Somewhere between 3.2 and 3.6 million Russian soldiers in WWII died while they were German prisoners of war. That fucking number is incomprehensible to me. Everytime I think about it, my skin crawls. No wonder Russians hate Nazis. That hatred is justified.
But said hatred skews Russian perception. Not everyone who is anti-Russian is a Nazi)
lfdf
Sure the rest are clueless no-nothings, who have bought 90 years of American lies and propaganda.
From the Russian POV, your comment is integral. I have a different POV. Since my side won, my POV won.
What you postulate very well may be the case.
But I still think we should meet for a latte and thrash it out. No?
I take that as a yes.
lfdf
Sorry but everything merciless and extreme since 2011 is the fault, dear Brutus, not of Russia, but of the USA.
Since the US devised it's Missile Shield scheme in 2005 or 2006, Putin, and then Medvedev, asked Washington and NATO scores of time to join the plan, to be part of it, or to be informed what the scheme was comprised of or just to sign a statement the it wasn't aimed at Russia.
And Washington wouldn't even sign a worthless scrap of paper that the Missile Shield wasn't aimed at Russia.
And you have the supreme ignorance to call this article merciless, extreme, and ruthless advocacy propaganda. And I'll bet you have never criticized the US for its provocation of Russia with the Missile Shield. Or did you advocate the double standard then as now?
How often does the MSM report on this aspect of the Russian POV vis-a-vis the world? Did you ever see any stories about the missing ATC tapes?
Doesn't 'not reporting' criminal behavior count as propaganda?
And I'll bet you have never criticized the US for its provocation of Russia with the Missile Shield.
Fuck, no. Russia has been, is now, and will always be our enemy. I'm from the old school. Anything the USA can do to fuck Russia is fine with me.
In that sense, perhaps Putin and I see eye-to-eye. Myself and Putin could possibly sit down and talk man-to-man. At the end of our tete-a-tete and one-on-one, objective observers might conclude that me versus Putin would be like caviar versus shit.
babe
or vice versa
anyhow, you're a lot cuter than Putin, if my opinion cunts for anythink.
Outstanding analysis. Thank you!
1) "the AngloZionist Empire predicated its entire Ukrainian strategy on a completely wrong assumption: that Russia "needed" the Ukraine."
2) "Worse, these [US] "victories" came at a very high price which included being deeply involved with a Nazi regime,"
Which is it? This is *very* difficult to sort out; but not for a lack of words!
Obama's Fat Man weapon against Putin:
obama-kissinger.jpg
I saw that and it is like WTF? I hope he croaks and goes to hell.
Pretty much spot on & the ONLY real X factors / variables are if another Chernobyl type "Eco-Terrorism" event transpires. Westinghouse is now coincidentially suppying fuel for several Ukrainean reactors & anybody who dos their research knows what happened last time US fuel were used in Russian made reactors. The globalists are getting desperate as they are OVERT & exposed & w/ Sandy Hook about to get ripped open & Boston Bombing next on the list. Stand by as things will escalate imo. You have to ask yourself at what point do the American people say enough ?
I wonder what would happen if Washington would say something like this to China: “Stop supporting Russia over Crimea and Syria and the Ruble exchange rate or face 50 to 100% import duties on the cheap junk you currently export to us.”
Another interesting scenario is that Washington says something like this to Russia: “Stop supporting Assad in Syria and we will allow you to keep Crimea and let the Donetsk region get some independence and a de-militarized status like the Swedish speaking island Åland which belongs to Finland.” I would not be surprised if the current Ukrainian government and the US would throw the Nazi Azov Battalion under the bus. If the Russians would accept an Ukrainian/US offer similar to what I outlined above I guess that the pro-Russian rebels would be allowed to butch the Azov Battalion and other Ukrainian Nazi fighters. If Western media all of a sudden would say “It´s Nazis that are fighting the pro-Russians in Ukraine” I guess that it would stand out as perfectly legitimate to the Western general public to round up and shoot the members of the Azov Battalion and similar groups like dogs. I wonder whether the Azov Battalion fighters really think that the US, Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko like them?
But I´m not so sure that the Ukrainian government and the US think that it is the right time now to give the Russians an offer. As long as the war in the east goes on I suppose that the Ukrainian electorate can accept almost everything just like the Russians in the 1990s were willing to accept almost anything in order to escape communism. And in the meantime the current Ukrainian leaders and the US can consolidate their power in Ukraine. If they can create a country without too much corruption which seems eligible for EU membership and the accompanying subsidies from the EU I guess that´s enough for securing support from a majority of the electorate. Perhaps Ukrainian leaders who are less concerned than Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko about Russia´s foreign policy elsewhere would be more interested in striking a deal with Putin shortly? If Russia paid something for Crimea I guess that could help a Ukrainian government that want to offer the electorate more spending and lower taxes.
Some political analysts seem to think that the purpose of toppling Yanukovich was to create a conflict that later could serve as an excuse for an attack on Russia. But does that really seem more likely than scenarios like those I have described above?
In any case I think that the Ukrainian conflict and China´s support to Russia shows how vulnerable China really is. I can´t understand why the Chinese think that is so attractive to sell cheap junk to the US and import aircraft rather than build aircraft themselves. I suspect that they should try to reduce the dependence on exports to the US in an orderly manner rather than all of sudden face the threat of drastically raised import duties. What happens if American politicians say “we need to rebuild our manufacturing base and bring home jobs”? If the USD loses its reserve currency status and the US has to reduce its trade deficit that doesn´t seem unlikely to happen. Suddenly increased EU import duties also seems to be a risk for China.
In addition to reduce the trade with the EU and the US voluntarily I also suppose that China would benefit from trying to influence European and American politics. They need European and American politicians who are less interested in controlling China and therefore more interested in reducing the trade in an orderly manner than using this as a sudden threat. If the Chinese were interested in reducing risks, proxies for the Chinese government would already be buying media in the US and Europe and building fiber optic networks that would ensure cheap access for the general public to inexpensive high-speed Internet. But instead they are building railways in the Balkans. They are not investing in things that give them power and reduce risks. Instead they build railways so that they can get even more dependent on exporting cheap junk to Europe. American neocons and their business allies seem smarter from a political point view. They know what they are doing.
Russia will not sell out Syria.
Freddie:
“Russia will not sell out Syria.”
My comments:
I´m not so sure about that.
By the way, I wonder to which extent Assad and Hezbollah consider a Crimea/Syria deal as a possible risk? I doubt that they consider that as a risk. Because if they did that they would probably desperately try to limit the number of Ukrainian politicians and media owners who they think may feel affinity with Israel because of their ancestry and therefore may wish to facilitate a solution which means that Syria dissolves and Israel keeps Golan. It wouldn´t work, but I suspect that they would still try to do something because that would be their only chance. Assad is toast without support from Russia. And Hezbollah is probably in deep trouble without Assad.
I would be surprised if Russia would not accept a deal that means a de-militarized zone in Eastern Ukraine and self-rule in Donbass and that Russia is allowed to keep Crimea in return for cheap gas for a few years and a large amount of money up-front for Crimea. I don´t know how much the Russians would be willing to pay for Crimea. $5 billion? $10 billion? $5 billion is a little bit more than $100 per inhabitant in Ukraine. $100 to $200 is a lot of money for people in a poor country like Ukraine. On the other hand Russia´s foreign currency reserves have been depleting rapidly over the past few months. But perhaps the Chinese could lend Russia the money they need to “bribe” the Ukrainian population? An additional $10 billion in foreign debt to China would not be a disastrous burden to Russia. They could manage with some additional foreign debt. This debt could also be denominated in yuan, not USD. I also think that $10 billion for Crimea should not be considered as expensive. The Russians should be happy if the Ukrainians accept such a deal. The next president of the United States may be someone like John McCain who says “we will give Ukraine a few nukes – if you don´t return Crimea to Ukraine nukes will fly”. Also keep in mind that the current Ukrainian leaders probably don´t care if the Ukrainians will be nuked by Russia because of a military conflict over Ukraine or starve to death. I doubt that they consider themselves as Ukrainians. I suspect that they consider the Ukrainian population as their potential enemies and that they deserved to starve to death in the 1930s. My impression is that they are about the same kind of people as those in the Yeltsin administration that let Russians starve and freeze to death in the 1990s. I don´t think that they and Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland toppled Yanukovich because of the corruption associated with his rule. There were other, strategic reasons for this coup d´etat. They were also willing to let the Ukrainians pay a price for their political objectives.
The question is whether the current leaders of Ukraine really want a deal with Russia or not. I doubt it. It will be interesting to see whether the Russians will get an offer from Ukraine and the US to swap discontinued support for Assad for Crimea.
Why not just declare war? 50-100% tarrifs.
Hey CTG-Sweden-Tel-Aviv, China is next and they know this. I think you do to.
conscious being:
“Hey CTG-Sweden-Tel-Aviv, China is next and they know this. [- - -]”
My comments:
But they don´t seem to prepare for that. Instead they build railways in the Balkans in order to facilitate even more exports to Europe.
If they really think that there is a risk for drastically increased tariffs or import duties for the cheap junk they sell to Europe and North America I reckon that they should try to substitute things they now buy from Europe and North America, such as aircraft, with domestically produced goods.
CTG_Sweden - don't play dumb. Next in the sense that if Russia is decapitated and reverts to a zionist colony, China, Chinese leadership knows that they are the inevitable next target. We are not talking about exporting junk. We are talking about war and conquest by the zino-anglo axis. Exporting junk is not germain. Preparing to defend sovereignty, likely nuclear war is what the zino franchise is pushing the world into. Sweden is likely to get seriously fucked up in such a scenario, so wake up and do what you can to get Sweden out of the zino camp ASAP, that is, assuming you are really a Swede.
Shouldn't that be the ZionistAnglo empire since its the Zio's who call the shots? They are a cute couple though, kind of like Pinky and the Brain.
Should the blogger wish to make a statement by his message, he should avoid presenting it in a style of good old Pravda cold war semantics. This totally undermines credibility regardless of a weight of the content. I don´t have problems of analysing global events from contradicting different angles, but wrapping the message to the political liturgy turns on a red warning sign as the Bloomberg´s Bershidsky does.
TeraByte:
"Should the blogger wish to make a statement by his message, he should avoid presenting it in a style of good old Pravda cold war semantics. This totally undermines credibility regardless of a weight of the content. [- - -]"
My comments:
The average media consumer in Western Europe would probably consider “The Vineyard Of The Saker” as an anti-Semitic nut case and would probably also think that is more likely that he is Nazi than the current Ukrainian government.
It is true that some soccer hooligan style Nazis are fighting for the Ukrainian government in Eastern Ukraine. Western media are also unwilling to inform their viewers/readers about that (because that would make Russia´s position stand out as more legitimate). But the current Ukrainian government is definitely not a Nazi government.
Damn, there sure are some crazy MFs on this board. I am none too proud of the USSA these days, but to cry a river over the F'in Russians. WTF? Ya'll are f'n tools.
You know what hell is? Infinite dimension X-ray mirrors, half of which are perfectly reflective, and half of which portray the life and thoughts of the perceiver.
Well this perceiver knows pseudointellectual bs when he hears or reads it.
Somewhat astute, except you didn't account for the subtle, perhaps even obscure, wryness factor.
it's called propaganda, and clearly US is not the master of this art, anymore. i have provided numerous links to news covering both US and RF military astroturfing procurements, but somehow zh'ers can't accept the possibility, that one side is not using propaganda.
btw, propaganda, most often, is not lies. it's truths in a controlled context. the difference here is, that appart from west, russia can build their case using only truth, but that doesn't make them the good guys.
edit: found the comments if there are still some inquiring minds left. fyi, i have covered both sides, so don't waste your time blaming me being biased here.
4640992 (page 2)
4659399 (page 3)
You have a beef with the Truth? This is nonsense.
"russia can build their case using only truth, but that doesn't make them the good guys."
The only way they can build their case by telling the truth is by being "the good guys". Let me help you out here. If they are telling the truth AND building their case, as a result, they are "the good guys". You might not know this, and given the zino induced moral destruction of America, maybe you are not solely to blame, but that's basicly the definition of "the good guys". They build their case by telling the truth. If for example they are telling the truth and their actions are unjust, they would not be "building their case".
I hope this helps you out. Happy New Year.
i have no problem with the truth. but the truth is only half of the story. by pointing finger on somebody's wrongdoings, doesn't mean that they don't have a long history of corruption, aggression and imperial ambition, and these characteristics don't disappear overnight. i know that ukrainian crises was probably initiated by the US deep state, but this gives the RF the possibility to answer with the same.
i know these accusations are unpopular on this board, but this is the experience of a small country next to russia where i come from. we are, actually, so small of a country, that russia doesn't even consider us as a partner, and only policy from their side is provocation, especially targeting the large russian minority as a residue of the soviet occupation. estonia has never been a threat to russia, and even if russia doesn't have any issues with us, they just can't leave us to our devices, due to the location, even if they would like to. you really can't blame us for joining NATO after half a century of soviet hell. what other choice do we have? i'm well aware we have become the pawns in the geo-political game between west and east, but again, we cannot ignore the first hand experience of our history, that would be more than stupid. to stay neutral as finland, sweden, or norway, is just out of the question. we managed to defeat russia once, but that was 1918, as nowadays the advancements in military technology render any defensive attempts we might try, fruitless.
i hope this explains my position, or the predicament, to be more precise, why i have no trust in russian government. to tell you the truth, i don't trust any government on earth, especially our own. to do otherwise, is to fall victim to the state propaganda.
why would any sane person trust a party (government, not a political party), who is no equal partner to you, the citizen, with any governance, as they come from a position of power (the barrel of a gun), and will never respect you, as an individual with any rights or liberties, if you are not willing to die for them first? it's just insane to place your life in the hands of somebody/something, over which you have no control of. and i, silly me, cherished the hope that zh will be the place where this childish notion will not be fostered and perpetuated. until came ukrainian crises.
happy new year to you, too!
Why can't you/ Estonia do what Finland does? Russia wanted a decentralized, neutral Ukraine. Why is that so bad for you? By embracing NATO/ZATO the now obvious, sworn enemy of Russia, you are obviously provoking your neighbor. Yes or no? Why is that smart? NATO/ZATO is constantly provoking Russia in their attempt to turn Russia back into a colony they can pillage for resources. Why do you want to join in on that? How do you think the Russians feel about you joining up with a group that's out to destroy them?
I understand you might be concerned about the consequences of your state's actions, but why did your state put your state in the cross-hairs? Typically, these things happen when the banking cabal buys off, threatens or blackmails the leadership. Maybe you should be angry with your leaders?
I appreciate your post. I take your point about governments in general, except that one of the legitimate things a national government is supposed to do is organize the collective defense against an aggressor. Right now, the Russian Federation seems to be doing a pretty good job of this. Maybe you can think about some of these questions.
Last but not least, it was, I believe, the Estonian ambassador to Ukraine who called Cathrine Ashdown, the EU Human Rights Commisioner regarding the sniper shootings in the Maidan that hit and killed both police and protesters to enflame both sides. Asdown, being a good zino-toady promptly burried the whole thing. Aren't you concerned about being joined at the hip to such evil fucks? How can that be a good thing for you?
Happy New Year.
thanks for the reply.
estonia has been battleground or occupied the last 800 years. ethnic estonians are less than one million in population. we could never stand a change to be independent competitive military force against russia, or against any other major foreign threat.
i guess for you it's difficult to imagine russia as a military threat, but we just can't ignore the history. the atrocities soviet union was responsible in our land and to our people, is something one could never forget, even if one would wish that. and if you take russian statesman like zhirinovsky, who publicly threatens total annihilation of baltic states, how can you assume we could remain neutral? i'm totally aware the tool NATO is, but for most estonians, it's a godsend. the reason to join NATO was obviously not to provoke russia, but to align the country to the west. it was calculated risk we were willing to take.
it would be a mistake to expect that world is more civilized, and we could live peacefully side by side. it's not, especially in the light of recent events in ukraine. and we both know who is responsible for this.
i don't want to comment the collective defence issue, because this is one of the main self justifications governments always give. they are all in it together, if you ask me.
sorry if i was repeating myself. i'm not expecting you to agree with me, i just hope you understand my predicament.
cheers.
WWIII was fought with nuclear weapons...WW IV with rocks and sticks...
So Russia doesn't need Ukraine? Really?
Crimea is south eastern Ukraine.
Donbass is eastern Ukraine.
It's not that hard to face basic facts ... if you want to ... harder not to actually, you have to lie to yourself quite a lot to pretend Crimea and Donbass are not the integral internationally recognized territory of a sovereign UN recognized state of Ukraine.
And no, a foreign power does not get to ruthlessly invade another state to change internationally recognize borders in this way and expect to just get away with it while pretending it's something else entirely that's occurred and shit-talking about sacred-sites and nuclear weapons, blah, blah, crap, crap, etc., etc.
So yes deniers, you do indeed want to take Ukraine, you just deny it's Ukraine! And such shallow dishonest fools have destabilized, militarized and commenced combat in Ukraine and invaded it with hostile forces supported materially and politically by Moscow.
Whatever.
Go ahead, deny it, and play absurd word-games, seek another way to hide from reality, who cares what you idiots do.
But everyone else can see that Russia is attacking and attempting to carve-off eastern and south eastern Ukraine. i.e. the very reason why most Ukrainians have consistently wanted to get closer to NATO for protection, since the Soviets collapsed. They strongly suspected this time would come where Russia would try to take Ukraine and put it in its imperial pocket. They knew what the Russian attitude would be to Ukraine, and what beligerent bullshit the Russians would spew out and make up a preferred fantasy that they then acted on with force.
So Russians are totally to blame for that being the case, and not just with one neighbour, but pretty much all of them.
Why is it so?
I recommend you have a read of Merkel's post G20 speech regarding German policy towards Russian territorial aggression, and also her 2015 New Year's eve speech for relevant commentary about future German State policy toward Russia.
She's voiced, fairly eloquently, intelligently and diplomatically what Germany and the rest of the Western world are prepared to do about Russia, during this and coming years. This is what most G20 states are prepared to do about Putin's personality-cult based rank populism and promotion of Russian ultra-nationalism, and blatant twisted distortions about what he's been up to in militarizing fifth-columnist activities within neighboring pro-Russian colonies, fermenting combat, then leading to incremental invasion of neighboring States (i.e. to minimize and delay organized Western resistance to what he's doing, not what he's saying).
In other words, various partisans can make their preferred dopey excuses as they wish, but the underlaying reason NATO expanded at all, was that the intervening states of eastern Europe firmly believed and supported the strategic need to protect themselves against future Russian military expansion and empire-building.
Merkel came from East Germany, not the West, she understands the danger to those states of Russia playing geopolitics once again. Well, now that's all become a military and economic reality, No matter what anyone thinks of what Washington, and the IMF, did to bring this mess about. People somehow forgot the role the IMF has played in bringing all this to the current crisis point.
Unless Russia now relents and reverses direction in actual deed, not in words, Russia is going to be ground-down until it begins to act like a peaceful lawful country. If Moscow remains a recalcitrant hold-out, in the vain and foolish hope of prevailing either economically, financially or militarily, Russia is doing to be economically, financially and even possibly militarily reduced to a subsistence level ... again!
This can be fast, and put behind it fairly quickly, or it can be slow and excruciating, as well as bloody and horrible. But one way or another, Moscow is going to be forced to change its tactics, strategy, attitude and behavior.
Make no mistake Russia will be forced, entirely against its will, to capitulate.
Russia is a big power, it is, but it is fragile, if not frangible. But NATO's military power is far larger, far stronger, much more mobile, much more capable, much more developed, much more depth, and very experienced and proficient. And now it's also got a new unified determination which Russian militarist nationalism will not defeat. People expecting Russia to come out on top against a re-unified global front against Putin's military destabilization and adventurism are completely kidding themselves. About 18 months ago Russia had clear diplomatic superiority and cred, which it then totally failed to capitalize on, and instead it did the one thing which was guaranteed to fail, and turn the tables on Moscow in short order - via this very silly self-defeating military-backed territorial expansion.
Frankly, the general collapse in Moscow's influence that has followed since is one of the most spectacular failures of national policy, diplomacy and pending economic and financial rout that I've seen in my life time. I can not think of a single leader who's blown their national position quite so badly as Putin has. Putin has even out-done George W Bush's incredible failure of national policy which saw his last budget deficit top $1.1 trillion before he left office and left the US looking like a global pariah.
What is even more startling is that it was he, the formerly unassailable Vladimir Putin who did this to the Russian people! The guy who played chess, not checkers! Either Putin needs some new strategic advisers or else Russia needs a completely new leadership cohort, because something's gone terribly amiss in the Kremlin. Even Boris Yeltsin could have played this one far better than Vladimir Putin did.
All of the states of eastern Europe are entitled to determine their own protection needs and to make all such alliances as they see fit, and that includes Ukraine. Russia has no say in what any other independent country does, and they'd better come to terms with it.
Personally I don't have a partisan side which I would prefer to 'win', while the other side 'loses' per-sec. I don't give a fig about such puerile levels of partisan nationalistic empire-building shit-think (like double-think, but smellier).
This is what will occur to Russia now, is all, and frankly further sustained militaristic action by Russia would be extremely regrettable, potentially with regard to Moscow's physical existence. Want to play that game again? Really? If so, Russia's going to go down very hard. Which is a terrible waste, because no one even wants that.
The primary problem is Vladimir Putin and cohort are (not unjustifiably in some respects) totally paranoid about NATO, and Eastern Europe is now (justly) also totally paranoid about Putin. The result is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. personally, I think Putin's current more militaristic term and stance has been a catastrophic error and disaster for Russia, and is very far from over, it has just begun, unless Moscow wakes up fast.
How about this for a lark? The cruise missiles and torpedoes, which scurrilously attack you, will all be retired volunteer torpedoes and cruise missiles acting independently, in response to their own patriotic impulses. You understand how it is with volunteer B2 crews dropping JASSM-ER cruise missiles all over the place and accidentally sinking whole fleets at anchor without warning, right? They're such naughty brats, those retired anonymous patriotic bomber crews! Very naughty. And the volunteer sub crews are positively incorrigible, you just can't restrain them from pressing buttons! They must get terribly bored down there with all those pretty buttons and nothing much to do but eye them off curiously. You know how it is, right? But this wouldn't be a NATO attack of course! NATO would never do that, it would just be some individual guys and girls acting on their own. Naughty hot-headed types. Gee, what can you do, eh?
Wake up, it's a game that can be played by many more than one.
I respect your passion; and I also believe that you ARE entitled to your own facts about what has happened in Ukraine AND Crimea.
If you connect Russia with images of Stalin, then it is difficult to think of Russia as threatened by US-directed sedition against Russia, nor the decision to position ABMs close to Russia, or grant NATO protections to the Baltics, Poland, and now Ukraine as acts of aggression. It is certain that Merkel of Germany and Tusk of Poland think of of Stalin when they speak of Russia the way they do..
There can be no doubt that many Ukrainians have scarred memories of Stalin's Russia: the famines, the purges, the reprisals, and the forced transfers to Siberian concentration camps. I am sure you know that several hundred thousand Ukrainians fought with Nazi Germany against Russia to the bitter end of WW II, even after the Soviets had pushed the Germans all the way back to Vienna.
But Ukraine, as organized by Stalin and amended by Kruschev, is a nation divided by language, religion, culture, and tradition. To remain a united country, all Ukrainians have to demonstrate a great deal of tolerance and deferrence to regional differences.
But, the "Ukrainian" Ukrainians refused to respect the "Russian" Ukrainians of the southern and eastern regions of their country. This is similar to the situation in Iraq, where Sunnis ruled over Shias and Kurds, and to Yugoslavia, where Serbs ruled over Bosnians and Croats. Iraq is in turmoil and Yugoslavia is dissolved.
Nearly half of the Ukraine speaks Russian as its primary language. Roughly the same percentage are Russian Orthodox Christians. And The Party Of Regions -largely pro-Russian- had recently won a majority of the elections to the Rada and won the Presidency as well. Yet, so great was the visceral hatred of the people of western Ukraine towards all things Russian, that they could not respect democracy and could not abide by the decisions of an elected government.
The riots in Maidan were not inspired by a national popular uprising against a dictatorship. It was a regional rebellion against a popularly elected governemnt, intent on subordinating the eastern and southern regions to the heavy-handed rule of the west. It is the west that has set out to subjugate the east. It is the east that is trying to defend its legitimate civil rights. It is the west that has violated the territorial integrity of the east. The east is not attacking or bombarding the west; it is the other way around.
In 1991, Crimea separated from the USSR first, several months before Ukraine did. The Crimeans preferred to have been treated as a separate state back then; but the much bigger Ukraine forced them to stay part of Ukraine -to which it had been assigned by Kruschev in 1954- along with assurances that it would enjoy substantial autonomy from the rest of Ukraine. The inhabitants of Crimea overwhelmingly consider themselves to be "Russian". That the Crimea swung over to Russia so easily without firing a shot or protesting en masse -a la Maidan- is testament to that "fact".
There is no doubt that the Russians are helping the defenders of the Donbass against the rabid Russophobes from the west. But the Russians have refused to accept these oblasts into the Russian Federation, insisting that they be given autonomy and respect within an Ukrainian Federation. So this charge of "territorial aggression" by Russia is poppycock propaganda; and is blatantly untrue.
Your bigotry can explain your viewpoint on the struggle within Ukraine. But it cannot excuse it.
Well at least you're informed, civil and insult with adeptness.
But South Ossetia was also an autonomous zone, and now 100% beholden to Moscow for its very existence. That is very much a strategic Russian territorial gain and main access route south. It is not at all bigotry which leads me to see the very same thing occurring in this instance, as this how it's being done, piecemeal. It is also opportunistic. But the new territory is reliant of Moscow to exist, at all.
But consider; if Ukraine migrants sliced off a substantial part of Russia, say half of Dagestan, in the same ways and methods, and did the exact same things as we see now, what would you call that?
Tell me, what would the Russian military be doing about it do you think? You know perfectly well what would occur, why and how in that case. It is rediculous to play innocent, it fools no one.
Which would explain all the artillery, mortar and sniper fire lately? It's not enough to be an informed commenter, you also have to be a bit realistic and reality-check your assertion. Moscow insisting the territory remain part of Ukraine, in name only, and supported with arms and Russian policy, is the height of arrogance and a joke at best.
You fellas need to get a little enlightened about this, one of the reasons cited for the ABM system in Europe was/is the development of a Iran 'Muslim' bomb. But what this really referred to was the existing and increasingly deliverable 'Muslim' bomb of Pakistan.
Surely you lot realize the Western world knows with utter certainty that there's no possibility of preventing a concerted strike launched from Russia, on Western targets? The notion that ABMs are going to work against such a missile barrage is bunk. Preliminary EMP pulses to soften up and aid penetration would proceed each incoming strike to degrade power, comms and sensors need for ABMs to be effective. Russia could easily assign 50 weapons for that task, alone, totally overloading any ABM system in minutes.
In other words, only a small strike from a small nuclear power, that's relatively unsophisticated could ever be intercepted with any reasonable expectation for a success. At best it's an untested (in actual nuclear combat condition) safety-net of arguable and dubious utility.
So, who does Moscow think they're fooling with its grandstanding about ABMs? It's a complete non-issue. ABM works for neither side ,in the event a major attack by the other side. That won't change.
The main danger of ABMs and also boost-phase DDG based interceptors close to your coast comes the illusions over time in the young and dumb, who don't actually understand that these missiles won't save them in any real nuclear conflict. In ignorance they may presume AMBs do work, only to discover that they don't work, almost at all. Logically Russia must therefore remind them that ABMs and DDGs can't protect them. A DDG close to your shore for boost phase intercept patrol creates a tension they really shouldn't want to ever exist.
But the real answer to preventing the worst of outcomes is via emptying both strategic arsenals of >5 kt devices so that all remaining weapons are in fact military-yield weapons, and not indiscriminate city-killer yield mass-murder devices (i.e. not valid military weapons, at all). Then humanity would not have to fear unrecoverable wipe-out. One day a miscalculation will occur, and if those arsenals are still full of 300 kt to 3 MT weapons on that day, then its all over.
Points well-made. Perhaps we are very near-sighted, observing the same elephant from opposite ends too close to gain a better perspective.
By the way, i apologize for using the word 'bigotry'. 'Bias' would have been a better description.
Not a problem, thanks for your comment.
Element - Absurdly long post with a great deal of bs. More than I can respond to, so I'll just address a couple of points. First this -
"...the integral internationally recognized territory of a sovereign UN recognized state of Ukraine." Here's my question to you. What is Kosovo? If you change Ukraine in your rant to Serbia, all the same points apply. Why aren't you all upset about the forced break up of Serbia like you are about Ukraine? Wouldn't be because ZATO instigated the break up of one and [not directly anyways] the other would it? ZATO can break up any country it wants, but nobody else can? Sorry, the precedent has been set some time ago. So unless you are going to start a campaign to reunite Kosovo with Serbia and mess up the heroin transfers from Afghanistan through Kosovo in the process, you are acting like a hypocrate.
Next, you never even touch on the known fact that NATO/ZATO, the CIA, and who knows who else, plotted to and succeeded in overthrowing the legitimately elected, internationally recognized goverment of Ukraine in a coup d'etat. You will say the guy was corrupt. What government is not corrupt these days? If you are going to go around the world over throwing governments because they are corrupt, you are going to be very busy for a long time. You can start with the USA. Simple example, not disputed by anybody. Did you know congress-critters are not subject to insider trading rules that everyone else is subject to? They take full advantage of the opportunity to enrich themselves via this loop hole. Plenty more examples. The point is, the way you are supposed to remove a democraticly elected government is via the ballot box. Isn't that right? Why should this not be the case in Ukraine? Why should the rest of Ukraine be forced to accept the results of this illegal coup?
Ridiculous. Yugoslavia broke itself up, Serbia was just one part of the territory of a wider conflict, it was an ethnic and religious civil war, and it was broken up long before NATO ever intervened. It went on for many years before NATO (i.e. the US, not Europe) did anything effective about putting an end to the heavy combat and command and supply elements of Serbia.
No one else put an end to that war, the US did almost all of it, and the Europeans only with considerable foot dragging. No one else was dropping masses of food to civilians caught up in it all, but the US dropped vast quantities of supplies to keep enormous numbers of people alive and healthy. And the US ended that war. Kosovo was one small miserable sideshow that stemmed from and came unstuck in the final break-up phase of Serbia itself. It was not the evil west who warred in Kosovo to break it up, it was an internal civil paramilitary conflict. The West only intervened (for a third time) to finally bring the entire conflict to an end. Thus ended the slaughter, the deprivation, illness and pain of millions of people in the resulting multiple countries that emerged.
War creates instability, which always rolls on for a decade at least every time, and that's why it's a really bad idea. Which is what Russia will be reminded of for at least the next decade, especially those Russians in Eastern Ukraine, because what has happened there will not be allowed to remain, it will be reversed.
You just established you didn't even read my comment, I specifically referred to that above in the note, just as I have on numerous occasions. I've realised I have to keep links to these things for befuddled jerks like you who can't deal with the topic honestly, but always have to try and play this line, when your bullshit get called.
Here's one from 3.5 weeks ago:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/ron-paul-warns-reckless-congres...
But despite this, turgid chaps like you love to crap on, and on, ... and on, about it as if it makes a difference to now. You seem to think it explains something and everything, that it mollifies with extenuating circumstance, provides a get-out-of-Jail-free card, acts as a multi-purpose fig-leaf for any and all aggressive Russian acts in Ukraine ever since.
No, sorry, it doesn't, even a tiny bit.
TIP: Try developing valid and compelling points. The emotive spasm is juvenile, plus getting basic stuff like reading comprehension wrong makes you sound pissant. Plus that NATO/ZATO thing... how to put it? ... look, do you think you will be taken seriously via writing like a parody of the stereotypical internet fuckwit?
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