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Initial Jobless Claims Rise 17k, End 2014 At Same Level As In July
It appears the glorious trend of decling initial jobless claims has run its course. For the last 5 months, initial claims have oscillated around the crucial-to-the-narrative 300k level - breaking the constant downtrend of the last 4-5 years. Today's 298k print, up 17k from last week, is the same level seen in the 3rd week of July.
This is the highest 6mo. rise in initial claims since the middle of the Polar Vortex.
Charts: Bloomberg
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imagine that.
How about a print on NEW DISABILITY CLAIMS!
I personally know people that couldn't find work and applied for disability. One claimed he was an alcoholic and received full benefits after 3 attempts. Another claimed back pain and also received full benefits. Unbelievable scam. Both sit around and do nothing all day. The safety net turns into a hammock.
PROLONGED CHRISTMASS VACATIONS FOR EVERYBODY!!!!
We've got the oil patch blues!
Colonics for everybody!
Sadly, this is joining other labor statistics as the most irrelevant data point released on a weekly basis since the DoL has admitted to 'estimating' some states numbers (that's guvspeak for lying/making up) whenver they receive incomplete data. I am pretty much pegging everything on credit numbers and right now the economy looks like it is rolling over hard.
I would phrase it as "going tits up"
Must keep it under 300,000..... " You shall not pass "
Tyler starting to lose a bit of credibility on this. Put up the 20 year chart of initial claims. It never goes below this level. Who cares if it goes lower, so long as there is net job growth?! Staying put at 300k with 200k job growth = improving employment picture.
You are fucking retarded ajkreider.
ajkreider
With labor participation rate at 1970s levels and getting worse it shouldn't be long now before we hit 0% unemployment. BTW, work for BLS.gov much?
Too bad I can only down vote your dumb ass once. Happy New Year
Some real geniuses on here let me tell you. Guy talks about the the labor participation RATE, in a post on raw claims numbers. Let's see a chart of initial claims over total labor force over time. Notice no reference to the continuing claims numbers.
Yeah, I'm a bls shill. The OP makes his point usingis government figures. You lot crack me up.
ajkreider, you can't fix retarded either. Just shut the fuck up and stop digging. You have no clue.
YOU LOT, who try to "educate" us on things we've already understood for years really crack us up. If you're going to slam the board, at least bring some deeper insight. Pointing out that initial claims rarely go much below 300K even in the best of times isn't exactly going to leave anyone's jaw hanging slack around here.
Yes, the good news according to Dear Leader is if EVERYONE gets discouraged and can't find jobs the unemployment rate will drop to... yes, ZERO!!! Yea Dear Leader and government math.
No doubt the government will come up with a way to have a negative unemployment number to "prove" to everyone how great things are.
On the one hand you are right, the numbers never do go much lower.
On the other hand, the net job growth number is bullshit, so you should care.
The irony is that those with 2 or 3 of those 200k part time jobs lose one of them, they are not included in the weekly employment claims.
SO it's all bullshit at this point.
This is extra good news! As Moonbat Polosi sez... the unemployeed get to "spend more time with their family and have more time to shop"!
See, they are just making it up with increased volume!
This is fucking bullshit! They said the economy was getting better... :)
I'm surrounded by fucking idiots. EVERYONE keeps asking me how's business, as in, I heard on the news that the economy was fantastic. I want to tell them the truth. The economy fucking sucks and will crash long before it ever gets "better". But, I just smile and tell them things are fine. Can people not see this shit? It's a fucking horrible economy. It's been a horrible economy for 6-7 years. A record number of people are on food stamps, layoffs continue, few have disposable income, vacations are modest or non-existent. Can everyone not see this? I have too many friends that work for the government and are blinded by reality. Some don't even realize they work for the government, University professors (State funded) and research scientist (Federal funded).
Sheik
Most people can't see how shitty the economy is because most people in the US are dependent on the .gov system in the manner of SS, EBT, .gov jobs, contracting with .gov, FIRE businesses ect ect. Take those activities out and 75% of the economy is gone
I feel for you because I also have a small business. People have no clue how bad it really is. Russians were in a much better position when the USSR collapsed than most americans are going to be. Most Russians had no faith in their gov and managed without, Americans not so much.
I remeber back in the 1980's & 90's and to some extent the early 2000's you could quit your job in the morning and have a new one before dinner time. Now not so much, now companies have hunderds of applications to pick from for just a handful of jobs. So sad what we have become. Between out sourceing and automation we are truely screwed.
Bmr22
And to steal a line from Hank Williams Jr, and all my rowdy friends have found government jobs.
How it should be.
Nowadays. the people who run private companies act as if they have people over a barrel.
Sad.
Just wait till Obamacare is fully implemented.
Then y'all will be totally f******.
my rates and deductibles have already gone up.
Yep, my deductible went up $1500 (I think this is the part where Dear Leader Obama said that my costs would go down by about $2500/year under His government health care plan). I now have to pay an additional $1500 out of pocket because of Dear Leader and this 100% democrat passed law.
My Blue Cross policy is now @ $ 8K deductible, $ 1,492.00 monthly payment. I am 59 and my wife is on her own plan. When Obama told me my premiums would decline $ 2,500.00, my monthly was $ 429.00 and deductible $ 1,000.
Happy New Year you Obama Loving Cocksuckers.
With an 8k deductible, how is this anything more than a VERY expensive catastrophic policy?
I get thumbs down for stating the facts about my insurance rates and the law that forced them to change.
"ARRRGGGHHH!!!! I HATE those facts!!! How dare you state them." LOL!
I'm in the UAW(Not a koolaid drinker BTW) and we have one of those "cadillac plans." The company(and by extension us, union labor) is punished by Obamacare for having this plan. There is a specific punative tax just for having this medical insurance. It is insane. Our premiums are rising 8% y/y for the next 4 years, and all copays/out of pockets have gone up tremendously. My union coworkers STILL LAUD OBAMACARE, because democrat. I fucking hate these ignoramuses. One guy just went out for an emergency surgery and was surprised that all of a sudden he has to come up with the entire deductable. It is a big hit.
Colonics for everyone!
BULLISH!!!
</s>
<sigh...>
Assuming ajkreider was trying to make a legitimate point....(and not just trolling)....his comment only cuts across one very small piece of the BLS mis-reporting. Not in any specific order....but BLS equates every job gained with a single job lost...losing $80,000 middle class job and gaining part time janitor nets to even for the BLS. BLS assumes that every new job means a NEW/DIFFERENT person, but in the new normal where a significant percent of the jobs created are part-time....the same person often holds two (or more jobs). BLS periodically (when politically beneficial)...takes their super-secret and statistically misleading "adjustments" to make the numbers look better. The continual "dropping off" of people from the 'active' part of the spreadsheet may be classified as no-longer-looking-thus-no-longer-needing-a-job....but in the real worlds these folks still have to eat, which means 20-somethings trapped at home, families doubling up, on-and-on.
In short....while jobs lost vs. created does give a bit of information....that narrow slice does not paint a very accurate picture of the real world work environment.
Orwell, ajkreider is uneducated in real world economics. Don't waste your time trying to explain in a couple of paragraphs.
My FBI profile of him is
1. Mid 20's
2. Works for State or Federal gov.
3. Fairly recent college grad (last 5-10 years)
4. Likely works in IT or MIS
5. Votes Democrat
6. Only child
skeikurbootie, you have made me chuckle! (....trading is slow this morning and you provided some much appreciated humor....)
Hah! Funny indeed, if wrong on all counts.. To Orwell's point, I'm not making any claims at all about the veracity of BLS numbers. It's worth noting, though, that in order to view today's numbers as bad news you have to give them some kind of worth.
I come to ZH to get much needed sobering, and sometimes funny, reflections on the economy. I don't come for chicken-little group think; where the same comments show up regardless of post content. Like an anecdotal story about ones insurance premiums matter a damn.
Should we take bets on Tyler's lede next week, when the initials drop 5k but the continuings jump 15k:
"Continuing claims miss by most since the polar vortex!"
(Though I expect an energy related rise in initials)
Aj
You made the claim in your original post that the employment picture was getting better base on cherry picked .gov stats that are juiced to begin with. Only somebody with no real world experience would dare make such a claim. I think sheik's FBI profile of you seems to be pretty accurate based on your analysis.
Bull-fucking-shit. Correct me then. What kind of business do you own?
So let me get this straight. The economy is doing great but it's still in a slump. We've ended QE but we have to wait and see. Strongest growth in Q3 since 2003 but holiday spending was lack luster.
When are people going to call bullshit on all of this. Just want one JOURNALIST to hound josh Ernest, just kidding but seriously is his name, about these contradictions. Labor participation rate, food stamp rolls and the one set data that never really gets examined. Full time used to be 40hrs a week.
Thanks to ofuckcare it's now 30 hrs a week yet the bls talks the statistics as though people are working a full-time 40 hr work week.
All the gas stations and conveinience stores near me have middle aged women working and not young millennials.
There is never true analysis of the data by the media so they are all parrots.
Should just bring some crackers for Polly next time some gov official comes out to pump this shit.
If you want strong journalism don't read this piece on businesses moving people to part time to avoid the ever so affordable mandate.
Some gems scavenged from said piece: "The strategies have had only a modest impact on job growth, which has accelerated substantially this year..." - "Those strategies have not had a noticeable impact on the labor market." - "Dan Mendelson, CEO of consulting firm Avalere Health, downplayed the impact of the law on small businesses, saying many can reduce their costs by offering plans with high deductibles or co-payments"
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/12/30/health-law-impact/21067751/
According to former CIA Director William Colby, "The CIA owns everyone of any significance in the major media."
http://www.newsfocus.org/media_control.htm