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Decoupling Just Died: December New Orders Plunge Below Polar Vortex Level, Optimism Plummets To 2012 Levels
There is a simple reason why Zero Hedge has been doggedly following the not seasonally adjusted all-important New Orders number component of the ISM (see Fooling All The Experts With Seasonal Adjustments, All Of The Time). That reason is that as a result of flawed Arima-X-12 assumptions, what is now a secular decline in the economy has been increasingly attributed to seasonal factors by both the BLS and the Institute for Supply Management. And as the ISM data revealed moments ago, we were right to focus on the NSA data, because while the Seasonally Adjusted (and one still wonders why a survey needs seasonal adjustments - after all human psychology automatically adjusts for the seasons) New Orders number tumbled by 8.7, the biggest crash since the 13.1 crash now blamed on the Polar Vortex (can't blame the weather this time), it was the unadjusted New Orders number that was the stunner: at 53.5 this was the lowest number since before even the polar vortex: in fact it was the lowest since July 2013!
But what's worse: the key component that drives the unadjusted number, the number of respondents who say conditions are "Better", crashed from 38 to a paltry 25.
This was the lowest number of respondents since... December 2012!
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Die, Dow Jones -
Crash - Crash - Crash !!!!!
If everybody chanted it loudly enough, you never know it may even happen
Crash - Crash - Crash !!!!!
There she goes !
Crash Crash Crash !!!! (Give back the 2000 bullshit points from mid October)
Time for the fed to btfd
I see rainbows....
The Trash just ain't there.
Gold Bitchez
Meh, it's nothing grandmama Yellen can't fix with a push of a printer button and a few dozen of her home made chocolate chip cookies.
I'm not sure the FED actually wants to do any big prints with congress talking about doing an audit....
"If you want your stagnate economy, you can keep your stagnate economy..."
It''s a staggering economy actually, like wino's after midnight....
This means Q4 GDP of about 8%, right? Seasonally adjusted, of course.
Optimistic signs are eery where...
- Harry Reid Breaks 'Number of Ribs and Bones in His Face' While Exercising...
I was hoping for a nailgun accident....
"and one still wonders why a survey needs seasonal adjustments"
a lot of good reasons ... sometimes a month has 5 sat/sun versus 4, early thanksgiving versus late (holiday shopping days between thanksgiving and christmas fluctuate); early easter (march versus april); etc.
you get the point ... but doesn't mean SA factors aren't ABUSED
The fed must now react to all of this "bad" data. The red light just went on at Goldman, signaling the S&P futures unit to start buying. Get to work Ms. Yellen.
So at what point does the president say "Bush's fault" on this one?
So my prediction of QE4 in March might have been a little off. I now revise it to the end of January. Good numbers, Bad numbers, its all a made up "surveys" that will be revised by future generations.