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Dismal Data Delivers S&P's Worst End/Start To A Year Since 2008
It is the first time since 2008 where the last day of the prior year, and the first day of the new year were both down.
This is the 4th down day in a row... we suspect everyone needs to remember the following...
The early strength this morning was what everyone expected after Friday's flush in US equity markets but soon after this morning's dismal data, things went just a little bit turbo... the standard 330ET ramp occurred - got the Dow and S&P green... BUT the S&P cash ended the day just red!
Catching down to Treasuries reality...
Bonds rallied significantly today and on the week...down 12-15bps and yields lower 4 days in a row...
The US Dollar rallied notably today also - closing at X year highs
USD strength today whipped PMs around and crude fell to cycle lows - another weak week...
Close up on WTI...
Post-FOMC, Crude is down almst 9%, gold and silver around 1% lower...
Come on!!!!
Some context on the 'down on last day of prior year and first day of new year' meme from MKM's Jonathan Krinsky:
"[It is] the first time since 2008 where the last day of the prior year, and the first day of the new year were both down. While that may have appear to have negative connotations, this combination is actually not that unusual nor bearish. In fact, since 1980 the SPX has had this combination 10 times ('89, '93, '94, '95, '97, '98, '99, '01, '05, '07, '08). The average return in those years has been +7.24%, and up 7 of 10 times. Therefore while the declines on Wednesday and today are perhaps surprising, they are not unusual nor particularly bearish from a historical context."
Finally, EURUSD clung desparately to 1.2000 all afternoon... The Euro broke down another 100 pips today on weak EU data and even more jawboning from Draghi. EURUSD has not seen a 1.19 handle since June 2010 (very briefly) when it was considered a signal of total EU collapse. Since Draghi really began jawboning ECB sovereign QE early in 2014, EURUSD is a stunning 20 handles lower!!
EURUSD drops to 1.2002 at its lows...
It's perhaps worth noting that while the Euro has collapsed against the USDollar... it is perfectly unchanged from a year ago against the JPY...
So... both European and Japanese currencies have collapsed at the same pace of the past year.. and so have bond yields...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Dont get your hopes up ZH yet , the NY Fed emplyees are on vacation with a nice bonus in their accounts
I've got my hopes up for the fall of this year ;)
Pretty amazing that by just TALKING, draghi has been able to drop the EUR comparably to the JPY over the last year. The Japanese witch doctors had to conjure trillions in new currency to get the drop. Perhaps even moar amazing is that people still listen when he talks about QE. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me every couple weeks for a year or more, well, I guess I'm just a fucking retard.
Trash talking about Europe, or the Euro-zone, whatever that is; is getting to be like kicking a sick puppy. It's easy enough, and they're an obvious target, but they also have real, serious, problems. It's going to be amazing to see what kind of rabbits they pull out of their hats, or asses, this year.
Still the biggest economy in the World
The "FALL" of this year. Ha-Ha. I'm going to take that as a pun. I don't think you'll be disappoiinted; I think there'll be a "FALL" alright.
wow what do u know...
another miracle rally to turn positive in the Dow in the last 30 minutes of trading...
Happy days r here again...
Ah finally the oncall NY Fed Emplyee logged on
BTFDD. Buy the fucking dismal data.
Next Christmas these prices will look like memories of a far off "golden age"; to all S&P500 buy and hold freaks. More overvalued than 1929; or/and 2007; certainly this means something ? Is there no force that can cause a market crash ? There is. The Big Banks. Who would profit from this Great Crash ? The Big Banks. Do I expect this to happen in 2015? Yes, I do.
Can I purchase a newsletter from you, oh great predicter of stock markets?
/sarcasm
LOL, every year we have these numpties 'predicting' market moves but let them continue their top picking as they help my longs which are not based on predictions but on what the chart is saying and not on what I want it to say.
Fuck off, Fed!
They control the short term interest rates. If there is long term deflation and bankruptcy then the long term rates may rise to match the perceived risks.
Risk will start pushing long term rates higher.
Then its going to be very difficult to find any value remaining since all the ZIRP and NIRP financed stock buybacks (inflated P) and non-GAAP earnings (inflated E).
Something is going to crack first.
FUCK YOU, BERNANKE!
I really expect oil to jump in the next 6 months to 80 bucks at least, it just all looks to farcy to me.
It would otherwise reflect in the BDI if they kept on stocking 2 million surplus barrels a day.
All I see is reasons for another round of QE all over the globe! China, US, EU you name it!
There;s at least one other possibility; but your prediction would be much more desirable for the human beings involved. It's also possible to have a market crash and a revulsion of belief in the Central Bankers.
20,000 Ebola cases later…
I na population of 7 billion, don't forget.
While I'd love to take encouragement from this, just learned that algos hacked into Morrissey’s mp3 masters on iTunes, and altered one of his hits:
The more that you short me, the higher I get
You're wasting your time
I will be at new highs -- with your stop at new highs
I am now a central part of your margin clerk’s thoughts
whether you care or do not
I've made up his mind
The more that you short me, the higher I get
You're wasting your time
Beware, I’ve more momentum
from lonely dove Fed chairmen
While you sleep, futures creep toward your ‘worst case’
like a bad dream that you can't wake
Take the easy way -- you can’t lose:
Just buy the Qs . . . oh, buy the Qs
(the higher I get … aw, you’re asking for it)
The Mozz! Good work Keltner Man
Hard to choose from so many potential parodies: I Have(n’t) Forgiven Yellen, Bullard on the Guillotine, Bernanke in Platforms, Everyday is Like FOMC Day, Algorithmic Palare, Janet the Ripper, Fed Chairman on Fire, Late Night - Eccles Bldg, , Janet - Down We Go Together, There is a Place in Hell for Janet and Her Friends, My Life is an Endless Succession of Margin Calls, etc.
so, it hasn't happened since the Fed (and every other central bank) went full retard? that seems siginificant to me. historical context means nothing unless you frame it in terms of pre/post Bernanke. i'm genuinely shocked the market was allowed to start 2015 in the red (no matter how small). we should have been up 30.
EBOLA thank you EBOLA CZAR for keeping the shit quiet.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/index.html
20416 cases and 8004 dead and not a one the media talks about.
Signs up at the VA today. "If you have been to West Africa you are to...
8,000 dead! Wow, this should be talked about as it's so miniscule compared to road accidents, cancer, heart desease and putting on your clothes. Thanks for the heads up.
"King Doelarr!!!!"
Mr Lennon Hendrix
Miss you pal...and you too Francis and akak.
His name was Lennon Hendrix....
His name was Lennon Hendrix....
Kevin Henry was on vacation? Fed's HFT computers malfunctioned? N. Korea hacked Fed's computers? Enquiring minds want to know the reason to this insult to the free and fair markets in the land of the free.
Next time James Bulltard, from the St Louis Federal Reserve, gets on the media stations he should have the backdrop:
BTFD!!
That will make people insanely bullish.
We are in a recession. We do not need the GDP to confirm it.
Just as if you had ebola, you would not need a test to confirm it.
Your fate will be sealed with or without the confirmation.
Noted, will be buying the dip on Monday.
....drool, fart, drool.....
One would THINK that, with every other currency down vs. the USD, physical gold-buying ex-USA would be SOARING...
Hint: MAYBE IT IS! Not that the governments will let us know that...
Interestingly, today, when the Market Indexes plummeted, t he metals took off straight up; look at the Silver and Gold Charts on Kitco. If the metals are now counter-trading the market; we're going to be shitting in the tall corn later this year. The low for 2014-2015 in Silver; 15.50; remains un-touched. (It's only a low in my mind, at present).
And they tried hard to fake a positive close... look at the immediate reaction of futures at 16:00:01
This could be the year where their fuking stupidity in trying to airlift assets fails.
nothing worth getting willy wet for
2015 Resolution
Market not to drop 3 days in a row
Let's just see how JPM and Goldman are lined up on the prop desk and you'll figure it out. Never a margin call, never a conviction, and no risk of ever having a shitty trade take them down...betting against them is madness.
And if they decide that going short is in their best interest; then what will betting against them mean ?
Enough already! Just tell me when millions give up on the Fed! That is the only thing that matters. There is nothing else. Faith in Fed and their limitless money creation trump EVERYTHING else. The rest is all noise and b.s. People will ONLY sell stocks when they are scared of losing their portion of the $5 trillions the Fed has created and handed out. If the masses believe moar is coming, it would be foolish to sell. Savers are punished; the wealthy are richly rewarded. Market risk has been removed by the Fed. Show that the party is really over and panic selling will begin. Five percent “growth” will not bring out sellers. Duh! Lousy earnings? ONLY if the Fed does not rescue the markets with jawboning and moar QE. Are we there yet?
Will consumers be unable to secure more loose credit? GM and others are selling again to anyone who can fog a mirror. Tens of thousands of holiday-hired temp employees have all been let go. Most probably went out and bought lots of new toys, since they all had “jobs”. Will debt-ridden consumers cut back when the bills all come due? Then more stimulus announced? We shall see.
I agree totally with you about Faith and the Fed, but sheeple dont move the rigged Ponzi so-called "market". As SAT says above, when the TBTJ fuck hole wank stain banks start shorting, excrement will collide with the air circulating device. This shit show doesn't have much life left in it. The big boys will pull soon, there is too much shit going down.
The FED traders were off last week. So, no one was there to protect the market. The managers of the trading desks were also off. So the algos were set to "caution" mode.
The real year begins Monday.