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Turkmenistan Devalues Currency By 18%, Armstrong Warns Of "Economic Collapse On A Global Scale"
The energy-rich former Soviet republic of Turkmenistan Thursday devalued its currency against the US dollar by 18%, as AFP notes, in the latest sign of contagion among Russia's neighbors from the plunging ruble (following Krgyzstan's 17% plunge in 2014 and Kazakhstan's 14% tumble). However, as Martin Armstrong warns, this is symptomatic of a deflationary contagion that "will contribute to now force the dollar higher... We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale. Most people do not understand that this is the real threat we face."
On Thursday, the website of Turkmenistan's central bank published the rate of 3.50 manats to the US dollar, from 2.85 manats, a depreciation of 18.6 percent.
The devaluation came as the plunge in value of the Russian ruble, linked to Western sanctions over Ukraine and falling oil prices, sent shockwaves through former Soviet republics.
All Turkmenistan's currency exchange offices and banks were closed Thursday, officially due to the public holiday.
The official exchange rate set by the central bank for the manat had been set at 2.85 to the US dollar since 2009. Earlier in 2009, Turkmenistan had knocked zeroes off the manat in a redenomination after the official exchange rate reached 14,250 to the dollar.
Turkmenistan has been led by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov since 2006, following the death of the eccentric dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, who erected a golden statue of himself that revolved to face the sun.
But that's not the only pain...
Earlier Thursday, Turkmenistan's oil and gas ministry announced petrol prices had risen by 60 percent. The rising price did not immediately lead to long queues at petrol pumps.
A litre of one type of petrol on Thursday cost one manat, while previously it cost 62 tenge (22 US cents under the previous exchange rate). No immediate explanation was given for the sudden price rise.
Martin Armstrong's perspective on this...
Turkmenistan, the former Soviet republic, devalued its currency against the US dollar by 18% for the new year. Turkmenistan is energy-rich and this is the latest sign of seriousness of the collapse in oil.
This will contribute to now force the dollar higher as commodities decline, the energy producing nations will be compelled to devalue their currencies in an effort to try to make ends-meet.
Devaluations will result in an attempt to create inflation to offset the deflation.
We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale.
Most people do not understand that this is the real threat we face.
We know, we know, "too small to matter"... "contained"... etc etc etc... nothing matters until it all matters remember... and the number of straws on this camel's back are starting to get very heavy.
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So, you mean..., my gold isn't going to the moon..?
Not yet. But patience grasshopper.
Time for Turkmenistan to rejoin the Russian Federation.
yep. plenty of rubles to go around. played right into their hands. we could see some interesting consolidation this year
Awaiting for a wiggly lined chart drawn with a ruler to predict the future of Turkmenistan currency from Armstrong.
Spoiler - paper is going to zero.
did the cycles just mixed or the model screw up?
i thought this was suppose to happen on the fourth moon aka 2015.75 ... may be i am missing smt ... may be this one doesnt count ... okay then
Uh oh. "Martin Armstrong predicts global economic collapse". Maybe this time.... Although I will graciously eat my words if it does happen around 2015.75. I do believe it is inevitable, I just have trouble believing it's going to happen any time soon. Him and others have been saying this for the past 5 years
Carl - As much as I had to swallow my pride when Armstrong said "gold will go to $1180" when it was at $1800, he never called for a collapse before 2015. There are a ton of sooth sayers predicting TEOTWAWKI, but Armstrong has always maintained US dollar strength into the collapse.
He has since stated that gold could go to $800. We'll see I guess.
Jim Willie has suggested similar - in that the $DX would defy gravity right before it collapses. In other words, contrary to popular belief, this ain't gonna be no 'slow grind', and the rapid rise the $DX over the past few months lends some credibility to that notion.
Gold on the COMEX may well go south of $100/oz as well as on the LBMA as these paper havens blow-up and real gold purchasers flee these ponzi scheme markets to real physical gold and silver markets (Singapore, SGE, Moscow, Dubai, etc.).
regarding gold "going to the moon"
well, i think "stackers" who await that moment like a lottery ticket holder may not get the hit they hope for.
HOWEVER...anyone holding gold, or silver, or oil in Turkmenistan today just had a one day 18% boost. And if you're a rationale investor, and not one praying to hit the 'gold to the moon' bonanza, then 18% in a single day ain't bad. The only thing depressing is for the micro-stacker who has two ounces in the sock drawer. It's never ever enough when the SH really hits TF.
Correction: Paper is going to "2" and fueling fireplaces.
Turkmenistan, Belarus, Ukraine...think I see a pattern forming...
Back in the U.S.S.R. ???
"you don't know how lucky you are boys, back in the USSR"
Cyprus, Russia.........
Just don't board any far east airlines that fly near Turkmenistan....
That will be a formality with the Eurasian Union incl. China.
How would joining the Russian Federation help this country. The Ruble has been hammered harder than their currency and Russia is reeling.
I would like to know more about Turkmenistan from the article, are they aligned with Russia? Is this another country in the process of being destabalized by the west, a country along Russia's borders? Russia cannot help itself it seems (or Ukraine), Russia will not be able to help this country.
If this is the start of an econimic attack then it will progress and when the natives get angry at their increased hardships then the covert violence will begin. Regime change that is friendly to the west. Will have to wait to see if it progresses.
Firstly, geography requires Turkmenistan to be cozy with Russia.
Secondly, Russia has very little debt so doesn't need to help itself all that much.
Thirdly, you last bit about covert violence is kind of ironic. I mean that you could still predict that, and quite possibly be correct, despite asking the questions you asked which implies you don't know much about the specific situation but the global chess game is clear as day.
1. Being located adjacent to a country does not require it to be "cozy" to it. You are claiming South Korea is "cozy" with North Korea.
2. Despite the lower debt of Russia the ruble has greatly declined in value. The effects are starting to affect the common citizens of Russia. The elite of Russia may not need to be as concerned but the average person has becomed somewhat concerned. If it continues it will be a factor politically within Russia. Russia has not been able to prevent the decline of the Ruble, it cannot do much for another country.
I think my post is clear but you did not get the connection I was making. If Turkmenistan is aligned with Russia the currency issue is likely an attack by the west, if that be the case then once the economic pain gets the citizens angry enough the west would begin covert violence to destabilize a Russian allie.
Turkmenistan is a former member of the Soviet Union that now routinely allows state institutions to discriminate against ethnic Russians. The reason for its economic woes are probably more to do with its energy export dependent economy than anything else. Aligning with a sinking ship won't do anything to help it.
Here's something to know...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan#mediaviewer/File:Gurbanguly_Be...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan
...but the ladies of Turkmenistan aren't nearly as hot as the Ukranian ladies, but...who am I to judge.
That depends....is it a paper promise or physical that you possess?
Yearly Shanghai Silver Volume Transcends COMEX Again, SGE Withdrawals Nearly 2,100t
https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/yearly-shanghai-silver-volu...
https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/...
If it takes $500 to buy a candybar I wouldn't exactly say your gold we'll be going to the moon. If it's worth 25k an ounce you'll be able to buy 50 candy bars.
You could buy 500 candybars today with cash and stash them.
Nop, so you will have to hold it for tradition. Buahhaha!!!
"We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale"
So what's new? That's just an average Tuesday around here.
"this is symptomatic of a deflationary contagion that "will contribute to now force the dollar higher..."
Oh, PLEASE don't throw me in that briar patch! Anywhere but there!
Tuesday?
did you think he meant today was literally tuesday?
No Debt will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger, today.
Me too;)
New Year's hangover still in effect. Well, for me at least.
A puff of NYCD or C99 will cure that
what I would like to see, is an intellectual, educated article on ZH which would explain how a deval would actually happen to the dollar, if it could ever happen. what happens to wages? what happens to accounts receivalbes and payables? minimum wage? taxes? tax liabilities? I just don't understand the mechanics of a deval. you have 100k in your bank? is it there tomorrow? Do you have 118k in your bank tomorrow? probably not...how does the haircut get applied?
from Men In Black:
There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!
Currency wars have begun! .....This is exactly how US exports inflation to all nations who do not bow down to their diktat!
USDs bitchez.
No kidding. Who'd have thunk that? Not me.
Given the deficit spending binge we've been on since 2008, I expected the USD to have collapsed by now. Instead it's getting stronger. WTF!?
Maybe it just means the rest of the world is fucking up worse than we are? Hard to believe that is possible.
varied reasons for usd strength
a biggie though, QE produced liquidity which went seaching for yield in emerging markets ... now that QE over ... liquidity exiting emerging markets (crashing local currencies/markets)
Not TBT
TLT and UUP
LOL
Correct - the money is flowing back to Wall Street where is will be given a Vikings funeral to dispose of the excess (when the time is right)
A strong dollar is a nightmare for the producer nations. What they produce must deflate
KA - BOOM
We have got it made! We are on the stern section of the Titanic and everyone else in close to the bow...oh wait, never mind.
Here, you stand on his shoulders and I'll stand on yours.
Huh?
That's the only game left in town, for many years (decades?) now:
Western TPTB working hard to help/ensure the rest of the world is fucking up worse than we are.
No belief necessary anymore.
It's your tax money that has to buy back the treasuries that other countries hold, and in their currency, the amount they get for those treasuries will Kill the American recovery. Your exports will not be affordable, other that the wars that are being started World Wide. Do you have anyone in your Family that wants to go to battle, the old geneva convention is thrown out as well ................Torture is fair game again, isn't it? Wrong in so many ways.
"It's your tax money that has to buy back the treasuries that other countries hold, and in their currency, the amount they get for those treasuries will Kill the American recovery."
Tax money? Who needs tax money when they have a printing press?
Currency wars started years ago.
i don't have a comment, I just want to respond before the "philiac" douche puts up his advert link
My sister's girlfriend made $6,500 last week shorting the Turkmenistan Manat. See how here: http://www.economichitman.com/
Thanks for the link.
FX can actually produce if you're properly educated.
No it can't. Actually it can pay, but never produce, no matter how educated (or not) one is. Think about it, if properly educated, you should reach the same conclusion. ;)
'n'if you ain' educat' propah, ya'all ca' get d'redacashun camps...
If only I could place Turkmenistan on a map I'd head over there for some cheap pussy.
It's by Kansas....
It's where the Turk men is tan.
If the dollar ever goes to hell, will that mean american pussy would get real cheap? Oh, forget it, I just remembered, we live in a gynocracy.
Mail-order brides are ‘on sale’.
I don't understand how a bank can post rates. Don't the rates reflect supply and demand? That would be like Blizzard setting the price of copper in World of Warcraft. Sure you can post an official number, but that's not what people will pay for it.
lol
OK, Spungo, put down the controller and start paying attention... :-)
If the dollar goes to the moon isn't that good for holders of US dollars? They can print to buy up all the markets and own everything on the planet.
Sorry, I ain't selling, my stuff is priceless when denominated in US$.
Think of it another way. Short of total collapse you might be in a position to sell some physical assets to buyout your neighbors debts. Do it right and build a kingdom.
Investment groups will be trading off skyscrapers for one gold coin. Happened in Germany way back when so we do have precedence.
It's good for a while, but like everything, that has consequences.
As far as printing to buy up all the markets and own everything on the planet, you're a bit late as all evidence indicates that's already happened. Unfortunately, it's done zip (or worse) for the real economy.
All the bankers are like dinosaurs, proud of themselves and gloating over 50% annual returns on investment into the markets thinking they're masters of the universe with their financial trickery, while being completely oblivious to the asteroid that's about to hit the planet.
No. At this juncture, the rising dollar is merely forcing an exponential acceleration in the de-dollarization process. What we engineers refer to as a positive feedback loop with negative consequences is now in effect.
Jim Willie also predicted this many months ago, saying that the dollar would begin to rise, then faster and faster. At its peak, when the clueless masses are once again dancing in the street and gas prices have fallen to seemly absurdly cheap levels, the dollar will then suddenly drop like a rock by roughly fifty percent. This will be the first stage of hyperinflation as the entire system unwinds in a panic.
I assume then that Walmart shuts its doors shortly thereafter as import prices respond accordingly and the interbank settlement system breaks down...
Happy New Year!!
yup
I suppose you're thinkin China and their Great Wall of Dollars
When that happens, buy all the food and ammo you can carry and run for the hills as fast as you can...
Thanks for the tip.
I have a turbocharged wheelchair. I'm always the first in the dining room.
Va Va Vroom
Meh. What does she know?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pippa_Malmgren
Not much, apparently......
Caveat Emptor:
Hyperinflation is Politically Impossible in the United States......
This is without even addressing Economic aspects......
There are always certain Singular Facts that reduce thousands of other pieces of information to irrelevance:
If the US imposed a National VAT Tax of say 10 %, how long would it take to COMPLETELY LIQUIDATE ALL of China's US Treasury Holdings ?
Would that be MONTHS or YEARS ?
You See how one fact reduces ALL.........
"Unfunded Liabilities" equal no more than a Promise to Pay in the Future to Ourselves within America, which can be extinguished a "Legislative New York Minute".......
The Political Consequences are another matter.......
There will indeed be a Financial Reckoning...and it will be Deflationary........
Many here and elsewhere continue to ignore the Message of Gold and Oil......as well as the Loud and Clear Voice of The Velocity of Money........
Got US Bills ?
If the US imposed a National VAT Tax of say 10 %, how long would it take to COMPLETELY LIQUIDATE ALL of China's US Treasury Holdings
No beating around the bush please (this is fight club after all):
How exactly could a VAT liquidate all Chinese treasury holdings?
Please don't say "because it would enable us to pay back all our debts within a few years"
See how one fact reduces all... is some kind of lame trick statement: you haven't posted any facts prior to this assertion, let alone "One".
Japan imposed a new national sales tax in 2014 and China's bond portfolio was unaffected, except it really climbed in value as the rates on long-dated US Treasuries dropped all year in 2014. The CNB has a nice bump in their bottom line due to holding US Treasuries.
Supposing the Chinese PTB know a pending deflation when they see it; why would they ever dump bonds which have the full faith and credit backing of their largest customer base and which show signs of growing market value in the face of continued deflationary pressures? The FRNs you call US Bills all come off the sames presses as the USTs.
Bullshit! We may are in a major economic collapse on a global scale. Most people do not understand that this is the reality, brutally forcing it's way into lala-wonderland, and we all have to embrace it, because that's all that could save us. Global collapse - and about fucking time, I'd say!
Gurbanguly Mälikgulyýewiç Berdimuhamedow -- now there's a name ripe for 20% devaluation. I shall just refer to him as "g-Bang".
In the new ratio, Oil has just Jumped. The Currency War is on. Now all US. treasuries held by other countries will remove some of the manipulative power that the C.B."s held, lead by the NY Fed.
Who?
https://www.google.com/search?q=pictures+of+house+of+cards+collapsing&bi...
The global economic collapse is "transitory" according to status quo huggers . . . . . . . meaning "transitory" much like the life expectancy of banksters fleeing the target zones of random nail guns.
So which cities will the US lose ? What are the odds on Dallas or Chicago ? Be interesting to see how people will react and whether USA will hold together
Hopefully DC
Short REITs that are invested primarily in DC real estate.
"Saparmurat Niyazov, who erected a golden statue of himself that revolved to face the sun."
Draghi and Obama take notice....
a ruble peg might make a bit more sense??
If you don't buy gold and particularly silver at these prices you get what you deserve--nothing.
Please explain how the dollar can rise and then later totally collapse.
Can you say Zimbabwe?
I thought this time the solution was to steal bank depositor money and not print?
What depositor money?
For the most part Americans are living on credit and broke.
There simply isn't enough. They have to hold the ship together until they are ready to pull the plug. Depositor money will be the last and very overt financial step. The goal isn't to save the dollar. The goal is to win - take full control of everything and everybody. It has always been the goal. Anyone, including most of us, who weren't playing the game understanding that all along were bound to lose.
The dollar is rising because people want it over otherr Fiat Currencies.
It will drop when people don't want the dollar or any other Fiat Currencies.
This is what will bring down Europe, and then the world into debt contagion. This is the real fallout of "Low Oil".
The banking system has invested heavily in eastern europe and the former soviet republics.
Losses will start the debt contagion ball rolling.
More QE to follow.
Don't forget to watch Japan and the bond market... they will be the tell.
The US dollar and the ill fated Air Asia flight have a lot in common, a sudden rise then a crash
Where are you going to hide? Right here:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1
And when the FED decides to print trillions more of those dollars, where are you then?
No problemo...just invert the graph.
Not to collapse stage, keep loading and stacking. when the US defaults then get excited, until then, move along.
These kinds of moves can cause all sorts of global tension and conflict. This is how it starts...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/negative-social-mood-causes-geopoliti...
Armstrong is a whackjob
That's why he is here on Zero Hedge 24/7. If it isn't doom 24/7 it doesn't sell. Fukishima, global warming, asteroids, hemmorhoids, conspiracies galore, fast food droids..bring it on.
cue Kevin Bacon: "All is well!!!!"
And it's only day two of 2015. 363 more to go. What could possible go wrong.
the 1930s bitchezzz !
The country has been in a boom as it has huge oil/gas reserves. Everywhere you go you see cranes, cranes, cranes.
This has to hit them hard, but they are a hardy people.
Berkimohammedov removed a lot of Nyasov's cult of personality, but there is no FB, Twitters, etc etc.
The oil price collapse, no matter how it came about, is likely to throw the world into a super-depression.
Sounds like we are being set-up to want higher prices, to beg for higher prices, we can't live without inflation!!!!
Devaluation: instant stealing buying power from the people.
All Fiat goes to zero only a Gold baked currency will survive.
(Bitcoin user not affected).
How do you bake a currency in gold?
GoldSilverBitBug, why is this simple economics 0.001 so difficult to grasp:
Devaluation makes imported luxuries more expensive and the top elite complains loudly (they control the media) - on the other side those living in powerty will find more work opportunities with growing export in goods and services!
Huh??? Except maybe ( possibly ) for the first 6 months or
so , currency devaluation always means less jobs!!!
You need to stay away from the Kool-Aid there/
The "global collapse" part, I agree. The economic collapse part, not so much. What we are experiencing is a global socio-economic collapse. Big diff here. The economic distortions we are witnessing is not the problem. These distortions are a symptom of the global social collapse that is underway. Economics is people and let's face it, people at all levels of the constellations of power are pretty screwed up these days. Two factors are primarily contributing to this pending human catharsis. One is the accelerating urbanization of the masses which are themselves increasing. The global population is now well north of 7 billion. And two, the technology curve is also gone vertical. We are continuously assaulted with new faster and more involved technology. People are well past their ability to process this amount of information and still manage to cope with the daily requirements of living.
So, basically, the point of this post is that there are no economic solutions to this problem. There will be stop-gap measures aplenty, but no solutions will be forthcoming. Humanity is sitting on a lit powder keg and the fuse is getting mighty short. Governments know this and are preparing...are you???
There is a significant possibility of an engineered famine if TSTF. Prepare yourselves accordingly...and by all means, get your asses out of the cities.
OBTW: Yappy Hew Near
;-D
Lower Oil Prices. These lower prices make consumers spend less on energy, more money available for consumption, driving growth. The lower energy prices allows all forms of economic producers to spend less on energy, allowing more for investment in plant and equipment, lower prices and higher wages. So, consumers benefit, all forms of economic activity, including farming, see a drop in input costs. These are double plus good.
So where is the problem?
The real problem is in the leverage overhang of energy producers who borrowed heavily to fund production of expensive oil. We take it for granted oil patch jobs will be lost as drilling slows. But the real threat to the world economy is: You guessed it! The Financial Sector and Banking! All that leverage, all those loans and Junk Bonds, all those hedges and counter parties. We could see a world wide financial crisis caused by what? Excessive Leverage. Also, Governments around the world were spending based on taxing oil. The worlds governments now will have less money and have to cut back spending. So both finance capital and government big spenders are in the shit!
Once again, a thing good for main street, lower energy prices, threatens to blow up the world because of: "Financial Engineering"," Specualtion", "Government overspending" and "Banking"!
Sound Familiar? What's good for main street, is bad for Banks and wall-street.
this is a good watch on the dangers that lower oil have on the Banking sector. http://youtu.be/JzRREm2prdE?list=UUvtTGZEcS8mbWdB7prg4QNw
Pension funds bailed into energy Junk Bonds, chasing yields. Just in the last year or so 90 billion dollars has been issued in the Junk Market. If this continues, some pension funds will be "shirt fronted" big time.
Don't forget that the consumer is over-leveraged too. It is always assumed that the consumer is always ready to spend any extra money on consumption, and I think that is overly optimistic.
The mentality that led to our consumption-driven economy can change, and I think we might be seeing that. It is possible that consumption will NEVER 'recover', at least to the extent this whole global Ponzi requires.
The trauma of the Great Depression caused an entire generation to snap their wallets closed. And they NEVER recovered. We had to wait for the next generations to grow up before things got going again.
I don't think this economy can wait that long.
Nailed it Jack!
contagion
[kuh n-tey-juh n] Spell Syllables
Examples Word Origin
noun
1.
the communication of disease by direct or indirect contact.
2.
a disease so communicated.
3.
the medium by which a contagious disease is transmitted.
4.
harmful or undesirable contact or influence.
5.
the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person:
a contagion of fear.
6.
the adoption of a copycat fiat currency printing policy
Origin: The Federal Reserve
This is quite an important story, not because of the currency bullshit, but the confluence of pipeline deals; let's piece together the puzzle...
Saudi Arabia
They're building the Nabucco Gas Pipeline to bypass Russia's Gazprom. This is the first clue: "construction of the pipeline was scheduled to begin in 2013 and would become operational by 2017" link
Turkmenistan
The TAPI pipeline, the whole reason for the Afghanistan war! This is the second clue: "The Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (also known as Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline, TAP or TAPI) is a proposed natural gas pipeline being developed by the Asian Development Bank. Expected to be completed around 2017" link
Caspian Sea
This is the last place on Earth, where oil is easily drilled, beyond this they have to drill arctic tundras et al, which isn't too appealing for the bottom line. The fractures and capillaries must spill into these satellite countries meaning 'they' want dominion over their sovereignty.
Baku
Next on the hit-list will be Baku in Azerbaijan, its peninsula is critical for oil extraction and could even be used to redraw questionable borders.
Algeria
This country has the purest of the black gold on the planet; it's sulphate condensate is very low which means lower refinery costs and more profit. It's right next door to Libya, so expect more war machinations from there to spill over and for the west to 'liberate' the fictitious totalitarian iron fist of some pseudo muslim bro' hood.
It's seems the fall in oil price coincides nicely with these contractual obligations to be completed by 2017.
This says Nabucco is dead.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article186293.html
Libya? I see rebels attacked a oil storage facility. Saying, "if they don't get their share of the money, they will burn down Libyan Oil".
The fire burned still as of yesterday.
I heard before that, Libyan oil is light sweet and pure. Europe thrives on the stuff. Every reason to put NATO in there a few years ago.
Libyan oil may be sweet and pure but Algerian oil is the purest with little contaminant to refine. There's a pdf i found many moons giving a detailed breakdown of each countries oil - Algeria was #1.
nigerian oil can go directly from the ground into a automobile...
"They're building the Nabucco Gas Pipeline to bypass Russia's Gazprom. This is the first clue: "construction of the pipeline was scheduled to begin in 2013 and would become operational by 2017"
Indeed! This is why Russia will not advance gas sales to Europe in future. North Stream is a great success and feeds Germany. South Stream is ended, making South Eastern Europe very angry. "Why should Germany get cheap Russina gas from North Stream, and SE Europe be disallowed from the same economic energy benefit?? This is causing trouble in the EU. Russia knows their EU market will be degraded by American plans. Thus Turkey gets gas and China gets big time gas. India is next on the list. All that matters is that the gas be sold, and, NOT IN DOLLARS!
Saudi, is America's ace in the hole in the energy politics! A big ACE! If Russia was going to act like the USA, then expect money and agents to flow into Saudi's unhappy population, below the level of Shiek.
+100 for the pipeline analysis!
they install muslim brotherhoods, they don't liberate from them. They only kill secular arab leaders - see Saddam, Ghadafi, Assad
1. Nabucco is dead. It died in June 2013 when it was announced by the Shah Deniz gas consortium of Azerbaijan that it was choosing to send its Caspian Sea gas to Europe via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) via Turkey, Greece and Albania to Italy, instead of via the Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TANAP) to meet up the Nabacco West line. TAP has a planned initial capacity of 10 Bn cu meters per year, and may be expanded to 20 Bn, insufficient to justify the Nabucco line.
The Nabucco line was originally planned to run from Erzurum, Turkey, through Bulgaria and Hungary to Austria, and gas would be distributed from Austria to neighboring nations in the EU. It was intended to connect to the TANAP line at Erzurum in Turkey. Nabucco was first proposed in 2002 as a means of diversifying Europe's gas suppliers, and avoiding potential problems from disputes over supplies of gas from Russia via Ukraine.
Nabucco/TANAP was competing with TAP for the Shah Deniz gas from Azerbaijan, and there was not expected to be sufficient gas to supply both pipelines.
Potential suppliers of natural gas for Nabucco included Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, Egypt, and Iran. Iran was ruled out when the US imposed sanctions on Iran, and pressured the EU not to trade with Iran. Iraq has proved too unstable to consider, and Turkmenistan is said to have been wary of entering into competition with Russia for natural gas exports. Egypt? Far away and unstable. That left Azerbaijan, with insufficient gas production for both projects.
The EU has been seeking alternatives to supplies of natural gas from Russia, partly over concerns that Russia holds too much of the EU market (36%) for natural gas and pressure from the USA to weaken Russian influence in Europe. The European Commission has been pushing the Southern Gas Corridor to bring gas from the Caspian basin and Middle East, bypassing Russia. Nabucco had the favor of the EC and the USA.
There have been problems with Russia supplying gas since most gas comes through Ukraine, notoriously corrupt and unreliable in paying its gas bills. Ukraine caused Russia to cut off all gas to Europe twice, in 2006 (?) and 2009, because Ukraine was refusing to pay its gas bill and was siphoning off gas meant for tranist to the EU. These problems led to Russia building the North Stream pipeline across the Baltic Sea to Germany, which was completed in 2012.
In 2007, Russia, seeking to bypass Ukraine, proposed the South Stream line across the Black Sea to Bulgaria, then via Serbia, and Hungary to Austria, in 2007. An offshoot from the line in Bulgaria would take gas to Greece and Italy. Agreements on the routing and construction of the pipeline were signed in 2008 and 2009 by Russia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Italy and Turkey, and Solvenia was added in March, 2011. Construction began in 2012.
In 2009, the EC sought to impede the project, enacting "competition rules" that would prevent ownership of the pipeline and supply of the gas being in the same hands. It is interesting that the EC has granted exemptions from these rules to Greece over other projects. In late 2014, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Austria were met with demands from the EC that they block South Stream to comply with the EC competition rules, but these 3 refused. Then the USA envoy John McCain met with the leader of Bulgaria in November and persuaded him to block the project. Russia saw the 2014 EC and USA moves as meant to force Russia to allow the USA and EU to have their way in Ukraine and to allow NATO a free hand to install missile bases in Ukraine.
The USA and EC apparently thought that Russia, after the USA and EU imposed economic and financial sanctions over Ukraine, would be desperate for South Stream to proceed and would cave to EC demands to hand over part ownership and control of the pipeline and would allow compeitors to make use of the pipeline. No doubt that various favored cronies of the EC were expecting to get a piece of the action. Instead of buckling to the EC demands, Russia diverted the line to Turkey, basically telling the EU that if they want gas from the line, they have to deal with Turkey. The EC and EU countries along the route immediately withdrew their objections to the pipeline, and are trying to persuade Gazprom and Putin to come back to the table.
The diversion of South Stream to Turkey has emboldened Turkey (which has been in NATO since 1952 and has been seeking EU membership for 20 years) to say that it will no longer plead for EU membership and is not too happy remaining in NATO, either. President Erdogan is basically saying that if the EU wants his cooperation, they had better start kissing up to him. Turkey, long thought to be in the USA/EU camp strategically and economically, is now seen to be looking east for future strategic and economic alignments.
The South Stream diversion to Turkey also puts TAP into question, much to the consternation of the EU. Turkey may decide that it will stifle TAP.
2. Turkmenistan and the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline. This pipeline has been planned for years, but none of the partners has the financial means or expertise to build the project, even if the political risks of disputes between partners and between the Taliban and Aghanistan and Pakistan can be overcome. Total SA of France was interested but backed out when Turkmenistan refused to hand over an ownership share in the supplying gas fields, exposing Total to too much risk. The 4 partners met in November, 2014, giving themselves a 3-month deadline to come up with some way to proceed. They hope to start construction in 2015, but that seems very unlikely to happen. Anyone who bets on completion in 2017 must like long odds.
3. Baku, Azerbaijan. The Sangachal gas port is 45 miles south of Baku, and is the point of landfall for the Shah Deniz gas from the bed of the Caspian Sea in Azerbaijani territory. It is the terminus of the TAP pipeline. The Caspian Sea is bordered by Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Russia and its ally Iran are the big dogs in the neighborhood, but the USA tries to exert influence from afar. The politics of the area are complex, to say the least. Iran has been laboring under USA-inspired sanctions for deccades, and Russia is now dealing with trade and financial sanctions inspired by the USA and imposed by the EU, so it is not likely that Russia or Iran will exert influence on their neighbors to aid the EU in obtaining natural gas or oil from the Caspian basin unless conditions are advantageous to Russia and Iran.
Only in Martin Armstrongs idiotic mind does global currency devaluation mean global deflation. The guy just never quits.
Don't switch off your brain too early.
If you read closely, it becomes clear he states global currency devaluation is initiated by gov't/CBs to "fight" occurring global deflation.
A few thoughs inflation, deflation and gold.
What did "deflation" mean when gold was money? It meant that the value of gold went up: one oz would buy more land and chattels. What does it mean now? Is the USD gold? In a sense it is convertible to gold, in limited quantities, at around $1,200/oz these days. Is that relationship stable, is it sustainable? It is lower than the industry cost of production and demand exceeds total production. That means stockpiles are being sold. At some point that has to stop when stockpiles dissappear or those who control them stop selling. Then we'll see deflation vs real money, gold and inflation/hyperinflation in fiat.
Gold thrives in deflationary and inflationary environments alike.
Only when there is disflation (no defation, no inflation) does gold do poorly.
yeah, so turkmenistan switches over to the chinese/russian 'currency-swap via ruble$yuan.
it wasn't so long ago that brzezinski using the 'carter doctrine' (protect the russian reappro?chment into iran and the persian gulf warm-water ports?) brought the ussr their own (foolish indeed?) self-made vietnam (amerikan style) war (1979-1989) in afghanistan.
yes, turkmenistan was part of the equation! but, what most historians failed to grasp[?] is that the iraq-iranian (1980-1988) war was happening [with moar wars to follow saddam the bad-boy with ussa)simultaneously after the Iranian revolution in 1979!
cia chief billy (aka. pos!) boy-oh`boy casey was all over pakistan/china/afghanistan&iran like stik-on-shit, before the russian blundering fiasco began setting up the mujahideen (today's taliban via islamic guerrillas) based in iran and pakistan (late 70s & early 80s)and trained in china as counter-terrorist? indeed, some can ligitimately call them, bin-ladens', al`qaeda if they choose, because casey lived across the street from obl!
what was casey doing? basically he was working for 'unocal' and was supporting iranian interest, while the russian's were supporting iraq.
the ussr collasped in 1991, and it only took from 1979-1991 to bring it about.
the first wrong move was the flip-flop on islam, which the muslim world saw as a russian encroachment of the me invading a muslim nation. iran's khomeini calls russia the 'greatest satan ever' and in a fatwa issues a jihad for all muslim nation, esp. balkans and their ~ 50 million muslims to defend allah's ways... which, by the way was the grand finale after russian pulled the pin from afghanistan!
conocal-plillips gets its 'blue-gold' and the ussa containment goes into hyperdrive on what was left of 'mother russia. actually it was a blessing in disguise regarding the leftover bolsheviks mentality finally now in the trash-bin of history. the old russian bolshevik politburo never worked and the young russina coming into their own were not to make the same mistakes, period!
why is this important, or worth mentioning in this article? when lard-ass hitlary offered-up the 'china-pivot'... it was like a slap to the backhead, a wakeup call to china that the ussa was gunning for them and it would be through russia that they would start.
perhaps that day was the inception moment of birthing a coalition between sino-russo for a long-lasting symbiotic marriage of convenience for survival. great powers only survive on great economies. they don't survive on political rhetoric without 'where's-the-beef'!
this is where the ussa is today, sadly... with germany seriously thinking of jumping ship along with turkey (turkey has just about given up on nato after article#4 misuse many tymes? [u-2/ cuban crisis/ israel wars/ greece&cyprus/ eec&eu?, etc., etc.,...) into the bric's & sco euro-asian free-trade without strings alliance versus asean american colononializtion central imperialism?
Europe is broke, and that means germany is left to bail out the EUC with the fucking british always playing both-sides of the fense, walking and talking the tight rope into a machiavellian`twist in which i personally hope they hang themselves with!
Makes you wonder who's buying dollars.
The Fed must have figured out a new gimick.
Because you can't buy dollars with dollars .
Or can you?
With fractional lending and repothication, you can do that and better....
You must mean the (preQE)USD/(postQE)USD rate.
All of my dollars are pre Y2K. I am totally set.
Rumor has it that $9 Trillion in carry trade money borrowed cheap in the US and invested in the emerging markets is now fleeing back to the good old USA in a search for safety. That $9 Trillion is now buying up Treasury paper and pushing real rates of return below zero.
'You can't soar with the eagles if you think like a Turk(ey)menistan.' - Homer J Simpson
Martin Who?
Martin - up an stop bean an idjiat!
and we care what happens in turkadurkastam ???
we have our very own shithole titanic to watch, as it slips into the deep septic sea
The whole world is dependent on Turkmenistan, obviously.
Rumor has it that North Korea is renaming itself North Koreastan to become more powerful.
I think markets will crash to 1700 first quarter, wave 4 down. Higher high, wave 5, end pf year?
Www.tripstrading.com
DOW right?
Turkmenistan has a GDP of $47.55 Billion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Turkmenistan
47 of the 50 States in 2012 had a bigger economy than Turkmenistan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_between_U.S._states_and_countrie...
Tell me again why Turkmenistan matters?
Turkmenistan is is what part of Turkey?
It's where the men live.
I am holding a fair bit of gold.
But I am not sure it is going to do me a lot of good when the collapse hits. Because when this hits civilization is DEAD. As in total Mad Max.
Collapse means there will be no energy because the supply chains and financial system will no longer exist. How do you pump oil out the ground without a fully functioning economy?
Seems to me that food will be the only currenct when that happens. People will walk right past my shiny pile of rock to get to the pile of canned food.
That said, I will not sell my hoard because I don't need the cash, and because one never knows what definitely comes next --- and if there is some sort of localized economies that spring up, and there is any amount of surplus, then gold is likely to be the way those surpluses get stored.