Turkmenistan Devalues Currency By 18%, Armstrong Warns Of "Economic Collapse On A Global Scale"

Tyler Durden's picture

The energy-rich former Soviet republic of Turkmenistan Thursday devalued its currency against the US dollar by 18%, as AFP notes, in the latest sign of contagion among Russia's neighbors from the plunging ruble (following Krgyzstan's 17% plunge in 2014 and Kazakhstan's 14% tumble). However, as Martin Armstrong warns, this is symptomatic of a deflationary contagion that "will contribute to now force the dollar higher... We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale. Most people do not understand that this is the real threat we face."

 

 

As AFP reports,

On Thursday, the website of Turkmenistan's central bank published the rate of 3.50 manats to the US dollar, from 2.85 manats, a depreciation of 18.6 percent.

 

The devaluation came as the plunge in value of the Russian ruble, linked to Western sanctions over Ukraine and falling oil prices, sent shockwaves through former Soviet republics.

 

All Turkmenistan's currency exchange offices and banks were closed Thursday, officially due to the public holiday.

 

The official exchange rate set by the central bank for the manat had been set at 2.85 to the US dollar since 2009. Earlier in 2009, Turkmenistan had knocked zeroes off the manat in a redenomination after the official exchange rate reached 14,250 to the dollar.

 

Turkmenistan has been led by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov since 2006, following the death of the eccentric dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, who erected a golden statue of himself that revolved to face the sun.

But that's not the only pain...

Earlier Thursday, Turkmenistan's oil and gas ministry announced petrol prices had risen by 60 percent. The rising price did not immediately lead to long queues at petrol pumps.

 

A litre of one type of petrol on Thursday cost one manat, while previously it cost 62 tenge (22 US cents under the previous exchange rate). No immediate explanation was given for the sudden price rise.

Martin Armstrong's perspective on this...

Turkmenistan, the former Soviet republic, devalued its currency against the US dollar by 18% for the new year. Turkmenistan is energy-rich and this is the latest sign of seriousness of the collapse in oil.

 

This will contribute to now force the dollar higher as commodities decline, the energy producing nations will be compelled to devalue their currencies in an effort to try to make ends-meet.

 

Devaluations will result in an attempt to create inflation to offset the deflation.

 

We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale.

 

Most people do not understand that this is the real threat we face.

We know, we know, "too small to matter"... "contained"... etc etc etc... nothing matters until it all matters remember... and the number of straws on this camel's back are starting to get very heavy.

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gmrpeabody's picture

So, you mean..., my gold isn't going to the moon..?

Seasmoke's picture

Not yet.  But patience grasshopper. 

Publicus's picture

Time for Turkmenistan to rejoin the Russian Federation.

maskone909's picture

yep.  plenty of rubles to go around.  played right into their hands.  we could see some interesting consolidation this year

Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Awaiting for a wiggly lined chart drawn with a ruler to predict the future of Turkmenistan currency from Armstrong.

Spoiler - paper is going to zero.

 

Arius's picture

did the cycles just mixed or the model screw up?

i thought this was suppose to happen on the fourth moon aka 2015.75 ... may be i am missing smt ... may be this one doesnt count ... okay then

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Uh oh. "Martin Armstrong predicts global economic collapse". Maybe this time.... Although I will graciously eat my words if it does happen around 2015.75. I do believe it is inevitable, I just have trouble believing it's going to happen any time soon. Him and others have been saying this for the past 5 years

nope-1004's picture

Carl - As much as I had to swallow my pride when Armstrong said "gold will go to $1180" when it was at $1800, he never called for a collapse before 2015.  There are a ton of sooth sayers predicting TEOTWAWKI, but Armstrong has always maintained US dollar strength into the collapse.

He has since stated that gold could go to $800.  We'll see I guess.

 

Consuelo's picture

Jim Willie has suggested similar - in that the $DX would defy gravity right before it collapses.    In other words, contrary to popular belief, this ain't gonna be no 'slow grind', and the rapid rise the $DX over the past few months lends some credibility to that notion.

Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Gold on the COMEX may well go south of $100/oz as well as on the LBMA as these paper havens blow-up and real gold purchasers flee these ponzi scheme markets to real physical gold and silver markets (Singapore, SGE, Moscow, Dubai, etc.).

Antifaschistische's picture

regarding gold "going to the moon"

well, i think "stackers" who await that moment like a lottery ticket holder may not get the hit they hope for.

HOWEVER...anyone holding gold, or silver, or oil in Turkmenistan today just had a one day 18% boost.   And if you're a rationale investor, and not one praying to hit the 'gold to the moon' bonanza, then 18% in a single day ain't bad.  The only thing depressing is for the micro-stacker who has two ounces in the sock drawer.   It's never ever enough when the SH really hits TF.

PTR's picture

Correction:  Paper is going to "2" and fueling fireplaces.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Turkmenistan, Belarus, Ukraine...think I see a pattern forming...

eatthebanksters's picture

"you don't know how lucky you are boys, back in the USSR"

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Just don't board any far east airlines that fly near Turkmenistan....

 

Bunga Bunga's picture

That will be a formality with the Eurasian Union incl. China.

Stumpy4516's picture

How would joining the Russian Federation help this country.  The Ruble has been hammered harder than their currency and Russia is reeling. 

I would like to know more about Turkmenistan from the article, are they aligned with Russia?  Is this another country in the process of being destabalized by the west, a country along Russia's borders?  Russia cannot help itself it seems (or Ukraine), Russia will not be able to help this country.

If this is the start of an econimic attack then it will progress and when the natives get angry at their increased hardships then the covert violence will begin.  Regime change that is friendly to the west.  Will have to wait to see if it progresses.

TheReplacement's picture

Firstly, geography requires Turkmenistan to be cozy with Russia. 

Secondly, Russia has very little debt so doesn't need to help itself all that much.

Thirdly, you last bit about covert violence is kind of ironic.  I mean that you could still predict that, and quite possibly be correct, despite asking the questions you asked which implies you don't know much about the specific situation but the global chess game is clear as day.

Stumpy4516's picture

1.  Being located adjacent to a country does not require it to be "cozy" to it.  You are claiming South Korea is "cozy" with North Korea. 

2.  Despite the lower debt of Russia the ruble has greatly declined in value.  The effects are starting to affect the common citizens of Russia.  The elite of Russia may not need to be as concerned but the average person has becomed somewhat concerned.  If it continues it will be a factor politically within Russia.  Russia has not been able to prevent the decline of the Ruble, it cannot do much for another country.

I think my post is clear but you did not get the connection I was making.  If Turkmenistan is aligned with Russia the currency issue is likely an attack by the west, if that be the case then once the economic pain gets the citizens angry enough the west would begin covert violence to destabilize a Russian allie.

 

RadioactiveRant's picture

Turkmenistan is a former member of the Soviet Union that now routinely allows state institutions to discriminate against ethnic Russians. The reason for its economic woes are probably more to do with its energy export dependent economy than anything else. Aligning with a sinking ship won't do anything to help it.

Antifaschistische's picture

Here's something to know...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan#mediaviewer/File:Gurbanguly_Be...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan

...but the ladies of Turkmenistan aren't nearly as hot as the Ukranian ladies, but...who am I to judge.

F22's picture

That depends....is it a paper promise or physical that you possess?

rsnoble's picture

If it takes $500 to buy a candybar I wouldn't exactly say your gold we'll be going to the moon.  If it's worth 25k an ounce you'll be able to buy 50 candy bars.

You could buy 500 candybars today with cash and stash them.

The central planners's picture

Nop, so you will have to hold it for tradition. Buahhaha!!!

NoDebt's picture

"We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale"

So what's new?  That's just an average Tuesday around here.

"this is symptomatic of a deflationary contagion that "will contribute to now force the dollar higher..."

Oh, PLEASE don't throw me in that briar patch!  Anywhere but there!

maskone909's picture

did you think he meant today was literally tuesday?

kaiserhoff's picture

No Debt will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger, today.

Me too;)

Skateboarder's picture

New Year's hangover still in effect. Well, for me at least.

Bunghole's picture

A puff of NYCD or C99 will cure that

Antifaschistische's picture

what I would like to see, is an intellectual, educated article on ZH which would explain how a deval would actually happen to the dollar, if it could ever happen.  what happens to wages?  what happens to accounts receivalbes and payables?  minimum wage?  taxes?  tax liabilities?    I just don't understand the mechanics of a deval.  you have 100k in your bank?  is it there tomorrow?  Do you have 118k in your bank tomorrow? probably not...how does the haircut get applied?

MrSteve's picture

from Men In Black:

 

There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!

Dubaibanker's picture

Currency wars have begun! .....This is exactly how US exports inflation to all nations who do not bow down to their diktat!

rbg81's picture

No kidding.  Who'd have thunk that?  Not me.

Given the deficit spending binge we've been on since 2008, I expected the USD to have collapsed by now.  Instead it's getting stronger.  WTF!?

Maybe it just means the rest of the world is fucking up worse than we are?  Hard to believe that is possible.

Bell's 2 hearted's picture

varied reasons for usd strength

 

a biggie though, QE produced liquidity which went seaching for yield in emerging markets ... now that QE over ... liquidity exiting emerging markets (crashing local currencies/markets)

SuperRay's picture

Not TBT

 

TLT and UUP

 

LOL

Mentaliusanything's picture

Correct - the money is flowing back to Wall Street where is will be given a Vikings funeral to dispose of the excess (when the time is right)

A strong dollar is a nightmare for the producer nations. What they produce must deflate

KA - BOOM

nodhannum's picture

We have got it made!  We are on the stern section of the Titanic and everyone else in close to the bow...oh wait, never mind.

TheReplacement's picture

Here, you stand on his shoulders and I'll stand on yours. 

malek's picture

Huh?

That's the only game left in town, for many years (decades?) now:
Western TPTB working hard to help/ensure the rest of the world is fucking up worse than we are.

No belief necessary anymore.

litemine's picture

It's your tax money that has to buy back the treasuries that other countries hold, and in their currency, the amount they get for those treasuries will Kill the American recovery.  Your exports will not be affordable, other that the wars that are being started World Wide. Do you have anyone in your Family that wants to go to battle, the old geneva convention is thrown out as well ................Torture is fair game again, isn't it? Wrong in so many ways.

Pumpkin's picture

"It's your tax money that has to buy back the treasuries that other countries hold, and in their currency, the amount they get for those treasuries will Kill the American recovery."

 

Tax money?  Who needs tax money when they have a printing press?

TheReplacement's picture

Currency wars started years ago.

william114085's picture

i don't have a comment, I just want to respond before the "philiac" douche puts up his advert link

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

My sister's girlfriend made $6,500 last week shorting the Turkmenistan Manat.  See how here: http://www.economichitman.com/

ISEEIT's picture

Thanks for the link.

FX can actually produce if you're properly educated.