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The Bubble to End All Bubbles
The mainstream financial media likes to focus on stocks because:
1) The stories are a lot sexier than bonds or currencies
2) They make for better hype jobs than bonds or currencies
If your job is to sit in front of a camera selling the notion of getting rich from investing, you’re not going to talk about bonds or currencies (maybe the latter is of interest but only with insane amounts of leverage which usually bankrupts a trader in his or her first trade).
However, today stocks are in fact a very minor story. They are, in a sense, the investing equivalent of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
That steamroller is the $100 trillion bond bubble.
For 30+ years, Western countries have been papering over the decline in living standards by issuing debt. In its simplest rendering, sovereign nations spent more than they could collect in taxes, so they issued debt (borrowed money) to fund their various welfare schemes.
This was usually sold as a “temporary” issue. But as politicians have shown us time and again, overspending is never a temporary issue. This is compounded by the fact that the political process largely consists of promising various social spending programs/ entitlements to incentivize voters.
This type of social spending is not temporary… this is endemic.
The US is not alone… Most major Western nations are completely bankrupt due to excessive social spending. And ALL of this spending has been fueled by bonds.
This is why Central Banks have done everything they can to stop any and all defaults from occurring in the sovereign bonds space. Indeed, when you consider the bond bubble everything Central Banks have done begins to make sense.
1) Central banks cut interest rates to make these gargantuan debts more serviceable.
2) Central banks want/target inflation because it makes the debts more serviceable and puts off the inevitable debt restructuring.
3) Central banks are terrified of debt deflation (Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself admitted that oil’s recent deflation was an economic positive) because it would burst the bond bubble and bankrupt sovereign nations.
The bond bubble, like all bubbles, will burst. When it does, everything about investing will change.
Bonds have been in bull market since the early ‘80s. Thus, an entire generation of investors and money managers (anyone under the age of 55) has been investing in an era in which risk has generally gotten cheaper and cheaper.
This, in turn, has driven the rise in leverage in the financial system. As the risk-free rate fell, so did all other rates of return. Thus investors turned to leverage or using borrowed money to try to gain greater rates of return on their capital.
Today, that leverage has resulted in $100 trillion in bonds with over $555 trillion in derivatives based on bonds.
This bubble, literally dwarfs all other bubbles. To put this into perspective, the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market that nearly took down the financial system in 2008 was only a tenth of this ($50-$60 trillion).
When this bubble bursts, 2008 will look like a picnic.
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Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
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Unless I get a definite date for this bursting, I can't use it.
There are so many people peddling armageddon and here I waiting since 2003 - still no burst.
I totally reject all forecasts without a definite time scale. They are all agendas.
I like October 3, 2015
Bond bubble, derivative bubble, dollar bubble, what bubble?
Central banking bubble. Moneychangers' bubble!
"they issued debt (borrowed money) to fund their various welfare schemes."
Implicit conservative bias. You could have just as easily said, "to fund their various tax cuts for billionaires, tax rebates for corporations, military-industrial boondoggles, private prison contracts, pork barrel earmarks, ceaseless war mongering, or even...bailouts for greedy bankers and the investment advisor parasites who need their crooked markets to sell their 'free investment reports.'"
We're all guilty for the mess we're in. Simply throwing our dog turds in other peoples' yards doesn't absolve us of that guilt.
For my part, I think throwing a lot of bankers and investment advisors in jail would do more for the economy than throwing a lot of poor people out in the cold.
It's already bursting, but when this one pops wide open nothing will stop it...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
Bullish!
You clowns are so clueless it hurts! As long as you have a central bank that can monetize your debt what´s the fucking point. FED printed 6 trillions over the last years out of nothing and the USD index is pushing to new highs every day. dont you get it? your textbooks are not good any longer get over it. new rules to adapt.. whiny assholes
You mean FED is going to print 100 trillions over the next years and USD will rise above all and gold remains where it is, right?
Shouldn't the word "Investing" now be taken out back to the woodshed and chopped up in to toothpicks, which at least have some utility??
It's time to strike the word from all current, future and past treatises and substitute the word GAMBLING for it.
You'll thank me later.
So it is written....
I wouldnt consider social spending as a bad thing-all that money ends eventually up in the hands of the rich after its done some good- what about city services-building roads, sewers and electricity to WAY out into the boonies, so that developers can cut down forests and build never ending suburbs.....and the military-must be a bottomless black hole in spending-some they WONT talk about and then the boondoggles: $100 roofing hammer, 58 Helecopters at $800,000 apiece, all being scrapped when it was discovered the had certain flaws-or how about this (duplicated in The War Deptartments budget many times over the years: )
http://investmentwatchblog.com/alert-computer-glitch-stops-us-most-advan...
each fighter issued only 180 rounds of ammo?!?! get outta here!!!! im sure the part of the iceberg underwater of the War Departments Budget could probably bankrupt the whole planet
farmers paid not to grow crops, corporations getting tax refunds even when they paid no taxes etc etc etc
what babboon was assigned to write this article?
So it's all the fault of "social spending" is it, though in fact expenditure on welfare is actually a small part of any budget and at least used to be self-funding with employee and employer contributions to health and retirement funds.
But those funds got raided and everything got turned over to the "for profit" private sector, ultimately owned by banksters/the financial casino/Ponzi Scheme of debt to eternity.
No mention here of the billions of tax-payer money handed over to the TBTF banks and other parasites.
No mention here of the borrowed trillions wasted on the Miltary Industrial Complex, which always gets bailed out with extended, or further contracts.
No mention here of the "corporate welfare" paid to members of Congress, just to keep the gravy train running until the bitter end for everyone, when it all goes over the cliff.
Yeah Phoenix Capital, blame the most vulnerable and excuse the MIC + excuse the banksters who have destroyed the last vestige of a Capitalist economy, in favour of a financialist one.
Back around 1780 the Rothschild patriarch told the world he did not care who was in governmemt, as long as he controlled the money supply, with compound interest ,for governments on money he created from "thin air".
Pity that Phoenix Capital blames the victims of the now post-Capitalist Financialist state of affairs.
Yeah because the biggest drivers of the debt and unfunded liabilities aren't medicare, medicaid, and social security in that order. Clown.
One day Phoenix will be right.....too bad it will be the same day an archaeologist finds our bones and wonders if we ate Wheaties by scraping our gums
I've never heard of eating Wheaties by scraping one's gums. Isn't it easier to just chew?
tHE cRASH - will it ever happen?........ the day that never seems to come
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRitfbhITLM
*Face palms*
Stop fucking blaming CDS/other derivatives for the last crisis or the coming one. There were and are so many deeper issues, such as underwriting of those contracts, hedging, capitalization, structuring, etc. that you don't mention once in this entire article. I am so fucking tired of hearing about the evils of derivatives on this site, which has unfortunately decided to regularly spew bullshit time to time. "Oh, look at this notional amount that's staggering but which nets to almost nothing and is hedged by about five other instruments."
You have never modeled out or even looked into any large US/international bank, you are not a structured/leveraged finance expert, please, stop the hyperbole and bullshit.
I agree with ASIERGUTI ,, the problem with derivatives is not the face amount but that complete imbeciles are buying them like it's penny candy... what I see as the problem is that all you need is one player to be unable to honor their side and then you have a cascade where a manageable 2% of face is at risk/unhedged to suddenly being 5% then 25% then 100% ...
Derivates are not evil by themselves. A derivative is just a tool, and it depends on how you use it.
The problem came when in 2007/2008, people who had no idea about MBS, CDOs, CDS, etc started buying these products because they could become very rich easily. As many found out, you should not invest in what you don't know, period.
But... how many people can calculate the risk of their portfolio nowadays? How many 25 yo guys know how the credit market works, or even how the monetary system works? We are in a worst shape than in 2007, just because we have a lot more derivates, and the people gambling on them don't have a clue about what they are buying, just like in 2007. Actually, why should you care if you get free money from central banks, and you are promised that they will do "whatever it takes" to keep the system afloat? Risk free... until the whole thing blows up.
Is the US bond market a way bigger bubble? Yes. Are we more screwed now than 2007 because of "derivatives" - absolutely not. If you look at the capitalization levels of banks and even nonbanks it's a different world than 2007.
*****************
Now I KNOW you're smoking crack ... all the banks I know are bankrupt and have crapola on their books at 100% where it's only worth 30% on a good day and 0% on a bad day... maybe you should actually look at the footnotes on the last "stress test" report ,,, more fantasy than Harry Potter.
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/precious-metals-charlatans-freaks-of-the-in...
ENFORCED FRAUDS totally dominate our political economy, and therefore, should always be the CENTRAL CONCERNS during any analysis!
FOLLOW THE MONEY TO ITS SOURCE!
Privately controlled banks are allowed to create the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts for everyone else, including the government.
Inside that MAD Money As Debt system:
Money is created when debts are created.
Money is destroyed when debts disappear.
Too much money created out of nothing is inflation.
Too much money disappearing to nothing is deflation.
Making "money" out of nothing in the first place is THE PROBLEM, compounded by it being privately controlled banks which are legally allowed to do that! Since that system was due to the ways that the methods of organized crime dominated the political processes, but that basic social fact was deliberately denied and/or ignored as much as possible, THAT PROBLEM of a system based on "money" being created by debts, and being destroyed when debts disappear, seems like it is never going to be well-understood by enough people, within the foreseeable future.
The article above presents perspective BULLSHIT:
"sovereign nations spent more than they could collect in taxes, so they issued debt (borrowed money) to fund their various welfare schemes."
The warfare schemes were always more crucially important than the "welfare schemes." BOND HOLDERS are the pyramidion people, at the top of the social pyramid systems, based on backing up lies with violence, which became systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence. The existence of BONDS operates inside of DEBT SLAVERY systems:
If history shows anything, it is that there’s no better way to justify relations founded on violence, to make such relations seem moral, than by reframing them in the language of debt — above all, because it immediately makes it seem that it’s the victim who’s doing something wrong.
-- David Graeber
A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small “inside” group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many.
-- Smedley Butler
THE FISH ROTS FROM THE HEAD TO THE TAIL. The best organized gangsters, the banksters, were able to persistently apply the methods of organized crime to the political processes, in order to make and maintain the established systems wherein privately controlled banks are able to make the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts, while governments enforce those frauds.
Inside that system, the profits from frauds were reinvested in more frauds. The debt controls expressed as BONDS were backed up by the death controls, enforced through taxation, legal tender laws, and the ability to kill to back up the alleged "rule of law." Inside those systems of SUCCESSFULLY ENFORCED FRAUDS, control over social institutions was leveraged up and UP, from control over the monetary system, to more control over the murder systems, which were in feedback loops, to make MONEY BE MEASUREMENT BACKED BY MURDER.
The BOND MARKET is a system of organized lies operating robberies. There are an abundance of superficial delusions, such as both explicitly and explicitly presented in the article above, which deliberately divorce the money system from the murder system which backs that money system up, while that money system in turn pays for the murder system. ALL countries, and especially the most dominate countries which are members of NATO, are controlled by politicians who are the banksters' puppets, who are voted for by enough of the masses of muppets that could be brainwashed to believe in bullshit by their schools and the mass media. The social pyramid systems, with the bond holders at the top of that system, have developed for thousands of years to become what they are now, based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds, within themselves, about themselves, for themselves.
THE FOUNDATION OF FAKE DEMOCRACY IS FAKE EDUCATION. Everything presented in the article above is an expression of a central feature of that, which is LIES BY OMISSION. A string of correct facts are presented, as a series of beads on that string, one after another, while nothing is said about the string itself. The existing systems were based on human beings and human civilizations operating as general energy entropic pumps.
That is the real context in which any "INVESTING" takes place. However, those doing that tend to deliberately deny and ignore, as much as possible, the deeper levels of the realities that money is measurement backed by murder. Our political economy is deliberately divorced from our human ecology as much as possible, which is the leading edge of all the other ways that our economy deliberately ignores its environmental ecology, since our political economy is based on systems of enforced frauds, which flatly contradict the basic laws of nature at first glance (by creating money out of nothing), because the actually existing money system depends upon being backed by the actually existing murder system. In order to have an economic system that did not continue to deliberately ignore its environmental ecology, then it would have to not deliberately ignore its human ecology. However, that would require facing the facts that the debt controls are backed by the death controls, and that any better resolutions of the chronic political problems inherent nature of life would require better death controls, to back up better debt controls. The current problems with the bond markets generating debt insanity numbers are due to attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance towards all of that, which constantly reinforces the ways that human beings have become criminally insane.
THE BOND MARKET IS THE GREATEST EVER BUBBLE OF DEBT SLAVERY, BASED ON BEING ABLE TO BACK UP LIES WITH VIOLENCE. The ability of privately controlled banks to be able to create the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts, which fraud was enforced by governments, was due to the history of those privately controlled banks being able to apply the methods of organized crime to dominate the political processes, so that almost all successful and surviving politicians became those banksters' puppets, who would be voted for by enough of the masses of muppets, who had been so successfully conditioned to believe in the banksters' bullshit that they did not want to know about the more radical truths.
While I agreed with the beads of facts strung together in the article above, and I agreed with the relative emphasis upon the role of BONDS, which are at the top of the social pyramid systems, the idea that one could profit from continuing to adapt to live inside of those systems is tragically laughable, to those with a sufficiently macabre sense of humour! We now have systems of globalized electronic monkey money, backed by apes with atomic bombs. The notions that we could adapt to profit from living inside those systems are as criminally insane as those systems themselves.
A world in which there are globalized systems of fraudulent "money" being made out of nothing, and disappearing back to nothing, as debts appear and disappear, has become runaway criminal insanities, where those frauds are backed by the force of weapons of mass destruction. Since the overwhelming vast majority of people do not understand human systems as manifestations of general energy systems, and do not want to understand those in that way, but rather continue to want believe in bullshit, we are rushing towards those BIG BUBBLES OF ENFORCED FRAUDS BURSTING, which will mean that the systems whereby debt slavery were backed by wars based on deceits will have their unprecedented levels of debt insanities provoke unprecedented levels of death insanities.
I agreed with the article above when it stated:
"The bond bubble, like all bubbles, will burst. When it does, everything about investing will change."
However, is typical on Zero Hedge, that statement is presented in an overall context which grossly understates that, and therefore, grossly overestimates the degree to which people could adapt to profit from understanding that better. ALL "INVESTING" SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF UNDERSTANDING HUMAN BEINGS AND HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS AS GENERAL ENERGY SYSTEM ENTROPIC PUMPS. However, the article above mostly stays with the banksters' bullshit world view, wherein the economy deliberately ignores the environment ecology as much as possible, because the ways that the debt controls were backed by the death controls were also as deliberately ignored as much as possible.
Therefore, I AGREE that "everything about investing will change." However, the article above understates that by many orders of magnitude. That article continues to mostly take for granted various old-fashioned economic ideologies, and therefore, does not get out of that frame of reference, when discussing the problems, and their possible solutions. Thus, that article is another classic example of the ways that there is abject failure to adapt to progress in physical sciences, which has NO matching progress in political science. Therefore, "investing" is NOT better understood within the context of general energy systems engaged in entropic pumping. That is especially the case because to the minimal degree that there was some apparent progress in thinking like that, there would probably continue to be presumptions about the conceptions about "entropy" which were backwards, due to the degree to which the biggest bullies' bullshit world view dominated the history of the philosophy of science, just at it dominated every other social enterprise.
The greatest bond bubbles ARE going to burst, and "everything about investing will change" due to that. However, this kind of article is light years away from any better understanding about that, since it tends to deliberately ignore that money is measurement backed by murder, and that all "investing" takes place inside the context where human civilizations are controlled by applications of the principles and methods of organized crime, because that is NECESSARILY the ways that human systems operate as general energy system entropic pumps.
That is the string that connects the beads of facts presented in that article above. That is the continuous process, that flowed throughout the history of the development of human civilizations, from being based on warfare, to become a political economy based on enforced frauds, whose single greatest manifestation is the bond market. Furthermore, that development of systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, have been following exponential growth functions ... which are, therefore, very rapidly reaching their real limits. Adapting to the real limits of the overall environmental ecology is what the human economic system ought to do. However, that requires facing the ways that any "investing" takes place inside the context where the production of destruction controls production.
The bond markets ARE due to those debt controls being backed by the death controls. There are no genuine resolutions of that situation which can actually exist outside of those realities. However, as demonstrated by the article above, the vast majority of people engaged in what they regard as "investing" are still operating within a basically bullshit view of the world. Therefore, the magnitudes to which "everything about investing will change" are grossly understated by the article above, when it attempts to promote its grossly overstated "simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits."
brevity is the soul of wit....
no going for wit are we...
We generally cut RM some slack. Sometimes lots of slack. But it's usually worth it.
Thanks, mvsjcl!
There is NO doubt that what I write could be edited a lot better, since what I write is merely my thinking out loud, after reading some article has provoked me to try to make sense of it, since the facts seem so SURREAL!
After all, WTF!
"The Bubble to End All Bubbles ... leverage has resulted in $100 trillion in bonds with over $555 trillion in derivatives based on bonds."That deserves thinking about! Also, in my defence, I point out that nobody is forced to read anything posted here, and doing so only costs some tiny fraction of a cent's worth of electricity.
What the article doesn't address is the risk. A bubble that is ten times as big isn't necessarily ten times riskier. CDS's turned out to be much riskier than people thought. What if bonds aren't as risky as people think. I don't know the answer to my question but I don't feel it was addressed in the article.
And military spending is not exactly social. Rather pure inflation.
Yes, Ludwig Von, military spending appears to have been the most pure inflation!
As I understand the economic history, war bonds were the both first and the worst of all bonds. The wars based on deceits, such as the War on Drugs, and the War on Terror, are being paid for with "money" made out of nothing as debts. Hence, when one adds the accumulating interest to the cost of those wars, then they appear to become even greater!
I.e., the most money made out of nothing, transferred into debts owed by future generations, which automatically compounds to become unrepayable, but which nevertheless has been piled on higher and deeper! Those kinds of debts appear to never disappear, so far, but pile up and UP upon the basis of the continued existence of the government itself. The banksters that dominate that government are the ones who benefit the most from wars and military spending, because they have been able to control all sides, so that, no matter who loses, they still win:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfEBupAeo4
All Wars Are Bankers’ Wars
what next? I say enjoy the day and ignore all learned with head in sand and go have good time doing what you like most, even if it is part of the problem, like a movie, ha...
how about the sniper - hehe
100 years is a good run, prbably 2015 will see major changes.
If you short things just make sure you can exit later and profit in the end (not assured).
And make sure you have some PMs, along with the prepping.
Gold=the ultimate dollar/debt short.
It all melts....and time for .....wait for it.....MR.666
reset with new global currency.....nothing new historically.... one empire absorbing another and a new currency is used intead of old....this empire will be financial/banking/legal.....that solves soveriegn and nationalist/ethnic/cultural issues largely......not perfect but possible and probable
bitterwolf; you are assuming the world order of powers can come to an agreement. we are past that possiblity.
military madness will not allow 10 winner take alls. pipe dreams. we must go to the wolves. we are the wolves. which alpha to you pledge your allegence to?
bitterwolf, that is an optimistic view based on the presumption that it will be possible for a new empire to arise from the ashes of the old. However, we already have been through a globalized empire, that has already strip-mined the planet's natural resources, and thereby high-graded ourselves to hell.
What you are suggesting appears to be what the current ruling classes agenda actually is. They have apparently prepared for nothing but to drive conditions towards the mass murder of the majority of the human population, as their way for their social pyramid systems adapting to running into the real limits of the planet. However, all of previous human history took place when there was some new frontier for technologies to go to plunder and rape. The decline and fall of any previous empire took place in the context where a new empire could arise to get back to strip-mining the planet's natural resources.
Any new global currency reset could not survive if became simply another social system of enforced frauds, because then the human species would continue behaving in criminally insane ways, since civilization would still be controlled by the ways that it was possible for human societies to be dominated and directed by systems of lies backed by violence. The deeper problems with our monetary systems driving debt insanities are that those systems depend upon a small minority being able to specialize in backing up lies with violence, in order to control a large majority that is thereby kept ignorant and afraid. Continuing to operate those kinds of social pyramids systems after the development of physical sciences which are trillions of times more powerful and capable is extremely problematic! In my opinion, the only way that there could be some now empire survive and develop is through the transformations of Neolithic styles of civilization into some sort of Translithic style of civilization.
Although it is theoretically possible that systems of alternatives could be integrated so that some technological civilization could survive, after the relatively objective limits to being able to exponentially strip-mine natural resources had been reached, such a system of alternatives could not be integrated without alternative death controls as the keystone to any such system of alternatives.
The money system we have now is actually a combined money/murder system, where money is measurement backed by murder, because the debt controls depend upon the death controls. Therefore, speculations about some new empire emerging, with some new monetary system, would have to be based on some way to resolve the problems regarding how to operate the death controls after the development of weapons of mass destruction.
Right now, the established systems of enforced frauds are the extremely unstable combinations of MAD Money As Debt, backed by MAD Mutual Assured Destruction. Given how criminally insane that has become, as well as how precarious that is, the most probable futures are for there to be such an annihilation of civilization that there will never again be any global empire possible, at least not for a long, long time ...
As my comment below outlined, the current bond market was based on the history of actually being able to strip-mine the planet's natural resources. Since that was being done through systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, there was never the slightest shred of sanity regarding that allowed to be publicly presented in any significant ways.
Therefore, although I agree that what you suggested is what the ruling classes have as their actual agenda, I think that both they, as well as those they rule over, have become too criminally insane to develop any political economy that became integrated into its environmental ecology. Since everything that the current empire is doing is based on being able to back up lies with violence, while that drives attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance, the notions that any similarly structured empire could emerge from that situation, and continue to survive, appears to me to be wildly optimistic, to the point of being nothing but an irrational hope.
At the present time, the most probable future is MAD self-destruction, which will not allow any new empire to emerge with some new money system to coordinate its activities, since that would take some new murder system to be able to survive through those events, despite those having all become utterly MAD!
Rm, empires of ever greater scope and sophistcate are a province of humanity....humanity is both good and evil...ergo, so will be the ruling elite and the governance of ANY empire...as far as unsustainability and ecological balance and best practices....I ascribe to your point of view that any evolution of empire that utilizes the same paradigms of poor ecological practices and governance using 7th century organizational principles is doomed to failure....good news....their is this eternal paradigm called innovation manifesting in technological and social revolutionary ADVANCES...it is happening as we write....at an exponential rate a la Toeflers "Third Wave".....nothing will ever be perfect or utopian..... Mankind WILL ADVANCE RELENTLESSLY...and an ALL POWERFUL central governance is critical to this endeavor...history is a harsh instructor....the way is clear....some want all mankind to be islands...some want anarchy...some want egalitarianism...SOME and I want ROME improved....not theocracy or psuedo intellectual jewish social governance theory.....ROME 2.0 where civilization...commerce...science....arts... can flourish unimpeded by folks similar to my ancestors...and militant religious nuts....the arc of instability only has so long to move from the 11th century to the 21st before salt is sowed....multiple currencies for global trade and commerce is inefficient to say the least....corruption and criminality will always be with us....but we can mange it much better than is happening currently....I am sure
Cheers
All that is well and good, but what about the pure essence of our immutable bodily fluids?
Its Bushes fault:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/07/24/opinion/sunday/24editorial_...
For the year 2015, the Fed only has two options: Inflate to the moon or die.
(Spoiler: Inflating to the moon also causes death)
They are having a (big) problem with trying to get the economy to inflate, the lower classes don't have any excess money to spend since they are trying keep their head above water, the middle and upper classes don't quite know what's going on but they aren't going to spend money they might need to stay afloat. Finally there are the seriously rich who don't care about the economy except when it lets them increase the size of their pile and any more QE, just like the previous QE will be used to increase the size of their pile.
But death takes longer and thus is always the choice.
Then theres the article re Radio Shack ....the moneyed interest holding derivatives on the bet RS would still be alive by New Years....had to inject cash into RADIO SHACK to protect his derivative position.
I tell ya, you couldn't make this stuff up!