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Only Stocks Are Left Minding The 'Recovery'

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

If I had to define the recovery period that developed after the trough in the Great Recession, it would have ended sometime in the middle of 2011. Up to that point, there was almost a uniform behavior in financial and even economic accounts (though, on the economic side, there was much left to be desired). It was by no means uneventful, as you would like in recoveries, but that was as much a systemic and structural problem as anything to do with cycle. That ragged end, as new doubts essentially replaced widespread hope, remains with us in a series of divergences that are only now closing (in the wrong direction).

Given the central task of every central bank, subscribed to themselves, is essentially “inflation” that is a good place to start.

ABOOK Jan 2015 Two Sides of Inflation

Unlike the orthodox view, I take a far broader perspective on “inflation” which includes all possible uses for “money” and credit (while admitting that the central bank does not create it, instead seeking to influence bank actions in the “money supply” and far more important “flow”). Commodity prices and stocks were very much aligned coming out of the depths of panic, even through the major bumps in 2010 (including the flash crash and onset of Greece). The more serious outbreak of uncertainty and fear in 2011 was unable to dislodge the correlation, as both commodity prices and stocks gyrated, but at the same times and in the same directions both up and down.

It wasn’t until early 2012 that any sustained divergence appeared. Whether this durable rift occurred early on in the year or later around QE3’s introduction is really irrelevant, only that the significant events of that year were these differing tacks in “inflation” while the global economy, including the US, dropped off the prior recovery path.

Commodities, having to settle and clear physical imbalances, are certainly attuned to monetary instability but are thus more likely to be anchored by the “demand” side of the equation. The fact that commodity prices had been inching lower ever since 2012 comports with almost any measure of global economic performance. That, of course, raises the issue as to where, exactly, stocks are being anchored. The argument over earnings and earnings growth is a valid one, but there again lies the problem in how exactly earnings are being determined and derived.

ABOOK Jan 2015 Two Sides of Inflation Longer

If we add additional financial measures to the mix, these inflections start to line up with the historical record of significant events.

Through periods A, B & C in the chart above, all the “market” indications are in agreement. Period A, for the most part, sees the yield curve steepening, inflation expectations and commodity prices rising while stocks echo what looks to be the “recovery.” Period B is the opposite direction as “dollar” fragmentation appears alongside euro difficulties. Period C reverses B as globally “coordinated” central bank activity appears to restore calm and order.

But that was essentially the frailty by which this divergence between stock “inflation” and commodity “inflation” was created. Period C was replete with massive intervention, including significant action at the ECB, BoJ and even the Fed ($ swaps) that, as we see very clearly now, had little to no effect on the real economy.

So in Period D divergences set in with first commodities diverging from financial sectors and indications.

Period E was defined by “tightening” as central banks shifted into “buying” the artificial appearance of order as if it were actual economic growth. Thus, inflation expectations joined commodity prices in at least moving sideways rather than upward conforming to the recovery narrative as set forth by central banks and economists (despite that narrative being reiterated and emphasized as it was at every turn).

Period F is the latest “tightening” phase, started in mid-June as repo difficulties followed closely the ECB’s negative rate decision, that has far exceeded the prior outbreak in scope and depth. The primary indication here is that everything is once again back in harmony, whereby the indications are all moving lower and toward harsh pessimism at the same time and to the same high degree; except stocks.

Somewhere in Period B or C, the recovery ended as it was shattered by the global slowdown of Period D; in other words the promise of monetarism acted out in “emergency” and “unconventional” policies was never delivered. Ever since, each of these financial markets, indicated by almost any credit market rate or factor, have come to terms with that as reality except stocks. Periods A-C were unbreakable belief in central bank efficacy, which was severely diminished by 2011’s near-panic rerun and the slowdown that followed. This latest period is perhaps the final undoing of all of that, made so by the 2012 global slowdown that has been impenetrable to monetarism in any form in every location.

Commodities broke first because there was the direct link to actual rather than imagined activity; inflation breakevens next; followed by the yield curve in November 2013. Either stocks have permanently decoupled, continuing exclusively within the realm of central bank omniscience that has been rebuked time and again, or there will be a Period G where full harmony is restored; that is everyone’s greatest fear.

 

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Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:17 | 5618464 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Period G= Grash (forget the crash) and maybe war

 

 

 

GROOT


 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:47 | 5618517 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

EVERYONE even the bears think it can stay together another year or two.....what does that tell you?? I think that boat is a little too heavy on one side

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:10 | 5618583 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

@kliguy38 - not sure about other bears but you have nailed where I am at the moment.  I have actually come to believe that the CB's anti-gravity machine will keep the party going for another year or two. Not that I am positioning for that - I cant bring myself to actually 'buy the bs' by getting into equities.  I have been wrong since 09 so another year or 2.... meh! 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:15 | 5618591 Jeff the Terrible
Jeff the Terrible's picture

That should go well with Putin's depraved "mass-murderer" title awarded by the incorruptible, non-murdering, non-torturing CIA:

Since the beginning of the week, the three most influential mass circulation newsmagazines of the United States, Britain, and Germany—Time, The Economist, and Der Spiegel—have published cover stories that combine wild accusations against Vladimir Putin with demands for a showdown with Russia. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VI6tBwVjyOY

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:21 | 5618606 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

How can you be certain those 'alligator jaws' of the divergence will close when the lower jaw looks like someone broke it?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:40 | 5618644 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

The upper jaw - as it represents market - is also desperately broken. So it'll be a collapse, if you're looking for a metaphor.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 19:50 | 5619336 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

i know there are alot of bears on ZH, probably in pain. 

I think CRUDE chart and the seaonality chart here => http://bit.ly/1B4K0wk is very interesting.

Everyone is talking about CRUDE bottoming, but as the chart shows, that might not happen for a few months yet. Soon as crude bottoms, i think Mr. Market will take off to the upside again.

so more bears in here in 2015 are probably going to feel more pain in the next six months. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:23 | 5618612 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

how on earth anyone can look at the plummeting economy around them--all their permanently unemployed friends and relatives, beef nearly doubling in price, ebt cards paying for everything--and still think that because the dow is hitting new heights all is well on main street, well that is beyond my comprehension.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:19 | 5618473 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Should've crashed in 2011-2012, and we all know it.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:29 | 5618493 Element
Element's picture

 

 

     "Should've crashed in 2010, and we all know it"

 

Fixed

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:35 | 5618505 silverer
silverer's picture

Yeah.  Fixed.  Lol.  If we put a real number on, it would be fixed as well, but we can't do that, can we?  Based on the last round of numbers from the last cycle, I wonder what ZH readers would attribute as a number for the DOW right now that truly reflects a balanced, discovered market.  I can only give my opinion, but I think it would be in the mid-9000 range, and maybe even looking at further decline into the future.  Anybody?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:47 | 5618515 Element
Element's picture

I'll just add the S&P struggled for a time to get back past 1150, and stay above it. I would have said that's the top of the recovery from the big V-dip, all the rest since is QE --> HFT fairy dust.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:07 | 5618575 Everyman
Everyman's picture

6K Dow.  There are something like 30 some gaps in the DOW, and 40 some gaps in the S&P.  One of the reasons that TA does not work, for the issue of "all gaps MUST be filed" is certainly NOT true with the DOW or the S&P.  Also, the number of overthrows, divergences has NEVER in the history of the market even close to this manipulated mess.

 

But, as the article states, the "markets" such as they are, are the ONLY thing "up".  It doesn't correlate to anything in the economy, revenue, forward growth, production levels, CAPEX, inflation, or commodities prices.

 

Valuation ad reversion to the mean is a bitch!

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:45 | 5618653 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Here's a couple of ways:

1. Blackrock said something like 68% of earnings are from accounting tricks? Then again, accounting tricks have always been around.

2. The S&P P/E is currently around 20. The historical PE has been about 15. 

 

The worst is the Russell 2000. It's full of biotechs. You have 10 biotechs chasing after the cure or treatments for the same disease. The average market cap for those companies is $15 billion. Total market cap for that disease is $150 billion. Let's suppose a 10% profit margin. They need $1.5 trillion in sales for investors to break even, not taking into account the TVM and risk. That's just for one disease. Basically, where the hell is all this money going to come from to pay for all these drugs in order for the biotech valuations to make sense? I see the dotcom bubble all over again. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:20 | 5618474 OneTinTrooper
OneTinTrooper's picture

That's funny ... now we are back to believing that markets are telegraphing something.   I'll stick with the conspiracy theories.  They are more fun.  Eventually every theory is proven right.  And proving that people are evil makes me feel better.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:23 | 5618478 yogibear
yogibear's picture

As Richard Duncan states. The Federal Reserve will initiate QE4.

http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/ 

It's a certainty.

 The Fed continues QEs and DC continues it's reckless non-productive spending until the rest of the world realizes the US is insolvent. It make take a few years.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:40 | 5618510 GodHelpAmerica
GodHelpAmerica's picture

Over time less and less markets are positively responding to QE. That is where the endgame lies.

And the fed's illusory economic recovery via QE is sowing the seeds of its own destruction. I am now firmly of the the opinion that QE is helping to push any REAL economic recovery further and further away. In other words, its net impact, even over the short term is negative.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:00 | 5619470 malek
malek's picture

Which doesn't mean the CBs will stop trying with even more QE...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:19 | 5619616 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

The last round of QEx ended badly for interest rates, which started to rise due to perceived risk.

This time there will be many small and mid bankrupt on WallStreet before the next QE and interest rates will be rising.

It is not clear another round of QE is possible if interest rates are rising due to perceived risks.

 

I'd expect Grexit in the next month, before QEx++ can begin and so interest rates worldwide will be heading much higher...and all QEx talk OFF.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 13:33 | 5620766 malek
malek's picture

 if interest rates are rising

Are we both living in the same universe?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:49 | 5618523 new game
new game's picture

and that yogi sums up the state of affairs in usa. timeline to demise...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:07 | 5618571 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The world already came to that conclusion, otherwise any QE would have not have been required.

The problem is getting out of the current system without precipitating WWIII.

They have tried mightily to avoid it, but Pax Americana seems unwilling to let anybody else play with

the marbles.There is no precedent in history for a peceful change in GRC.The nearest is the pound

to dollar, but then WWII was already ongoing.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:29 | 5618604 noben
noben's picture

It may take a while for the rest of the world to realize it, due to the ECB and the Fed doing the mutual reach around.

And for those contrarian countries that already got wise... there's the CIA and the DOD, to keep their leaders on line.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:24 | 5618479 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

Convert essentially fraudulent financial assets to gold...  Best deal in the history of mankind. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:58 | 5618548 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Not really, a financial asset can look like an asset one day, and a liability the next day, gold remains the same as long as it doesn't have a heart of tungstun.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:26 | 5618485 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

There is a reason there are no windows in casinos but unfortunately the real world is happening whether you choose to see it or not.....

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:26 | 5618488 alexmark2013
Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:57 | 5618545 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

There’s a supposed 1% oil glut that drove prices down 50%... going long onoil is now a sensible thing for the next 12 months.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:42 | 5618511 djsmps
djsmps's picture

The best loan in the history of real estate

What could possibly go wrong?

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-equity-building-mortgag...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:01 | 5618557 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Wash, rinse and repeat.

P.T.Barnum was 100% correct!

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:13 | 5618587 seek
seek's picture

The fact that those loans are available tells you everything you need to know about where banks think real estate values are headed -- and rough time frame and amount of decline as well.

As with everything else, this doesn't end well.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:51 | 5618949 s2man
s2man's picture

"After five to seven years, their income should grow..."

Yeah, let's count on that.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:57 | 5618961 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

These people should be renting for Christ's sake not buying a god-damned $400,000 house. Ages 60 and 57 and they have a whole $16,000 in the bank.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:41 | 5618512 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Why does the U.S. Stock market look a lot like the ones I've seen from countries like the German Weimar, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe? I'm sure the pundits in all those countries lauded their markets until the end.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:43 | 5618513 max2205
max2205's picture

They fixed the business cycle...watch out

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:49 | 5618524 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Vladimir Putin has been named the 2014 Person of the Year by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), an award given annually to the person who does the most to enable and promote organized criminal activity.

Putin was recognized for his work in turning Russia into a major money-laundering center; for enabling organized crime in Crimea and in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine; for his unblemished record of failing to prosecute criminal activity; and for advancing a government policy of working with and using crime groups as a component of state policy.

Putin has been a finalist every year so you might consider this a lifetime achievement award,” said Drew Sullivan, editor of OCCRP. “He has been a real innovator in working with organized crime. He has created a military-industrial-political-criminal complex that furthers Russia’s and Putin’s personal interests. I think Putin sees those interests as one and the same.

Putin, a former KGB bureaucrat, began arresting most major organized crime figures in Russia several years ago, but then quietly released them. That was the start of Russia’s state policy of working with organized crime. OCCRP believes that Putin agreed to tolerate criminality in exchange for criminals’ support in advancing what he defined as Russian interests.

"Vladimir Putin and his siloviki fused a Cold War mentality with modern organized crime strategies and technology to create a new level of transnational organized crime,” said Paul Radu, executive director of OCCRP. “The Russian-backed money laundering platforms have exploited the lack of transparency in the global financial and offshore company registrations systems to create a new criminal financial infrastructure used by crime groups from as far away as Mexico and Vietnam".

http://occrp.org/person-of-the-year/2014/

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:00 | 5618546 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

That should go well with Putin's depraved "mass-murderer" title awarded by the incorruptible, non-murdering, non-torturing CIA:

Since the beginning of the week, the three most influential mass circulation newsmagazines of the United States, Britain, and Germany—Time, The Economist, and Der Spiegel—have published cover stories that combine wild accusations against Vladimir Putin with demands for a showdown with Russia.

The most striking and obvious characteristic of these cover stories is that they are virtually identical. The CIA has scripted them all. The stories employ the same insults and the same fabrications. They denounce Putin’s “web of lies.” The Russian president is portrayed as a “depraved” mass murderer.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/07/30/pers-j30.html

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:10 | 5618579 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

That organization is primarily comprised of the international center for journalists. Their directors can be seen here: http://www.icfj.org/about/board-directors

NYT, McClatchy, Bloomberg, Scripps, USAToday, Hearst, Politico, etc.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:17 | 5618594 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

"The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone of any significance in the major media." -- William Colby, former CIA Director, cited by Dave Mcgowan, Derailing Democracy

That must have been a very impartial, fair and just award for Putin from the OCCRP and the CIA.

The demonization of Putin by Western media continues unabated

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:24 | 5618610 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Watch this become a headline on Monday in every news outlet I cited above. And I'm sure not one of them will disclose their connection with its production. The Kyiv Post is already promoting it.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:41 | 5618645 freedom123
freedom123's picture

So for you only Russia TV or other Putin regime owned main stream or so called "alternative media" (probably ZH) can be named as objective regarding Putin because he owns that media?

Mkey...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:47 | 5618660 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

How could picking a "person of the year" possibly be objective? It's subjective by nature.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:15 | 5618872 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Well, which media than is objective in your perspective?

Are those media that Putin regime control - objective about Putin regime?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:51 | 5619080 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

What does some pot-calling-the-kettle-black article about Putin have to do with stocks being artificially propped up?

If you're going to troll, at least stay on topic.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:57 | 5618688 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

and who owns the "objective" Western media?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:42 | 5618647 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Bernanke wasn't available?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:03 | 5618972 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Both Bushes declined the award

 

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:20 | 5619002 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture
List of people pardoned by George W. Bush From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

President George W. Bush

pardon means an executive order vacating a conviction. The following is a complete list of persons pardoned and a complete list of persons granted clemency by George W. Bush. President Bush was regarded by many as being one of the most cautious presidents in modern U.S. history when granting pardons or commutations.[1] President Bush granted presidential pardons to 189 persons who served their entire sentence and commuted in addition the sentences of 11 persons.[2]

 

Contents

  [hide

 

Definitions[edit]

commutation means a mitigation of the sentence of someone currently serving a sentence for a crime pursuant to a conviction, without vacating the conviction itself.

Pardons and commutations[edit]

This is the list of people pardoned or clemenced by a United States president, ordered by date of pardon or commutation.

Pardons[edit] December 20, 2002 Name District Sentenced Offense Kenneth Franklin Copley M. D. Tenn. 1962 Manufacturing untaxed whiskey, 26 U.S.C. §§ 51735179,520552225601, and 5604. Harlan Paul Dobas W. D. Wash. 1966 Conspiracy18 U.S.C. § 371. Stephen James Jackson E. D. La. 1993 Altering the odometer of a motor vehicle, 15 U.S.C. §§ 1984 and1990(c)(A). Douglas Harley Rogers E. D. Wis. 1957 Failure to submit to induction into the Armed Forces of the United States; 50 App. U.S.C. § 451 et seq. Walter Fred Schuerer N. D. Iowa. 1989 Making a false statement to the Social Security Administration regarding his employment; 18 U.S.C. § 1001. Paul Herman Wieser W. D. Wash. 1972 Theft from an interstate shipment, 18 U.S.C. § 695. Olgen Williams S. D. Ind. 1971 Theft from the mail by a postal employee, iou 18 U.S.C. § 1709. November 5, 2003 Name District Sentenced Offense Bruce Louis Bartos S. D. Fla. 1987 Transportation of a machine gun in foreign commerce, 18 U.S.C.§§ 922(a)(4) and 924.[3] Brianna Lea Haney W. D. Wash. 1991 Failure to report monetary instruments, 31 U.S.C. §§ 5316 and5322(a).[3] David Custer Heaston D. Nev. 1988 False statement, 18 U.S.C. § 1001.[3] Michael Robert Moelter W. D. Wis. 1988 Conducting an illegal gambling business, 18 U.S.C. § 1955.[3] February 14, 2004 Name District Sentenced Offense David B. McCall, Jr. E. D. Tex. 1997 False entry in bank books and aiding and abetting, 18 U.S.C. §§1006 and 2.[4] May 20, 2004 Name District Sentenced Offense Paul Jude Donnici W. D. Mo. 1993 Use of a telephone in the transmission of wagering information, 18 U.S.C. § 1084.[5] Samuel Wattie Guerry D. So. Car. 1994 Food stamp fraud, 7 U.S.C. § 2024(b).[5] Charles E. Hamilton W. D. Wash. 1989 Mail fraud18 U.S.C. §§ 1341 and 2.[5] Kenneth Lynn Norris W. D. Okla. 1993 Unlawful disposal of hazardous waste42 U.S.C. § 6928(d)(2)(A) and 18 U.S.C. § 2.[5] Johnson Heyward Tisdale D. So. Car. 1994 Food stamp fraud, 7 U.S.C. § 2024(b).[5] July 6, 2004 Name District Sentenced Offense Anthony John Curreri E. D. Wis. 1976 Mail fraud18 U.S.C. § 1341.[6] Craven Wilford McLemore W. D. Okla. 1983 Conspiracy to defraud the United States and Caddo County, 18 U.S.C. § 371.[6] November 17, 2004 Name District Sentenced Offense Meredith Elizabeth Casares D. Kan. 1989 Embezzlement of U.S. Postal Service funds, 18 U.S.C. § 641.[7] Gerald Douglas Ficke D. Neb. 1992 Structuring currency transactions to evade reporting requirements,31 U.S.C. §§ 5324(3) and 5322(a) and 18 U.S.C. § 2.[7] Richard Arthur Morse S. D. Miss. 1963 Interstate transportation of a stolen motor vehicle, 18 U.S.C. § 2312.[7] Fred Dale Pitzer S. D. Ohio 1976 Interstate transportation of falsely made securities18 U.S.C. § 2314.[7] Cecil John Rhodes N. D. Tex 1981 Making a materially false statement in a loan application to a federally insured bank, 18 U.S.C. § 1014.[7] Russell Don Sell D. Kan. 1995 Aiding and abetting the making of a false statement to a credit institution, 18 U.S.C. §§ 1014 and 2.[7] December 21, 2004 Name District Sentenced Offense Kristan Diane Akins, fka Kristan Diane Bullock and Kristan D. Wheeler E. D. No. Car. 1990 Embezzlement by a bank employee, 18 U.S.C. § 656.[8] Ronald William Cauley D. Rhode Island 1980 Misapplication of bank funds by an employee, 18 U.S.C. § 657.[8] Stephen Davis Simmons W. D. Tex. 1981 Possession of counterfeit obligations, 18 U.S.C. § 472. Roger Charles Weber C. D. Calif. 1969 Theft from an interstate shipment, 18 U.S.C. § 659.[8] March 3, 2005 Name District Sentenced Offense Alan Dale Austin W. D. Tex. 1987 Misapplication of mortgage funds, 18 U.S.C. § 657.[9] Charles Russell Cooper D. So. Car. 1959 Bootlegging26 U.S.C. §§ 5174a56055632, and5681.[9] Joseph Daniel Gavin U.S. Army general court-martial 1984 Failure to obey an order, drunk and disorderly in quarters, communicating a threat, disrespect to a superior commissioned officer, assault, damage to government property, resisting apprehension, Articles 89, 92, 95, 108, 128, and 134, UCMJ.[9] Raul Marin W. D. Tex. 1982 Failure to appear, 18 U.S.C. § 3150.[9] Ernest Rudnet E. D. N. Y. 1992 Conspiracy to file false tax returns18 U.S.C. § 371.[9] Gary L. Saltzburg D. New Mex. 1995 Theft of government property, 18 U.S.C. § 641.[9] David Lloyd St. Croix D. No. Dak. 1989 Disposing of stolen explosives, 18 U.S.C. §§ 842(h) and844(a).[9] Joseph William Warner D. So. Dak. 1995 Arson, 18 U.S.C. §§ 1152 and 81.[9] June 8, 2005 Name District Sentenced Offense David Thomas Billmyer U.S. Air Force special court-martial 1978 (approved in 1979) Making a false claim, Article 132, UCMJ.[10] William Charles Davis M. D. Fla. 1983 Income tax evasion26 U.S.C. § 7201. Richard Ardell Krueger D. So. Car.
D. So. Car.
1979
1980
Mail fraud18 U.S.C. § 1341.
Furnishing false information on a Housing and Urban Development loan application, 18 U.S.C. § 1010.[10]
Michael Mark McLaughlin D. New Hamp. 1983 (sentence modified in 1984) Conspiracy to commit mail fraud and mail fraud18 U.S.C. §§ 2,371, and 1341.[10] Billie Curtis Moore E. D. Mich. 1977 Income tax evasion26 U.S.C. § 7201.[10] James Edward Reed N. D. Tex. 1975 Conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute marijuana21 U.S.C. § 846.[10] Scott LaVerne Sparks D. So. Car. 1989 Theft of government property, 18 U.S.C. § 641.[10] September 28, 2005 Name District Sentenced Offense Gene Armand Bridger W. D. Mich. 1963 Conspiracy to commit mail fraud and mail fraud18 U.S.C. §§ 2,3711341.[11] Cathryn Iline Clasen-Gage N. D. Tex. 1992 Misprision of felony, 18 U.S.C. § 4.[11] Thomas Kimble Collinsworth W. D. Ark. 1989 Receipt of a stolen motor vehicle transported in interstate commerce, 18 U.S.C. § 2313.[11] Morris F. Cranmer, Jr. E. D. Ark. 1988 Making materially false statements to a federally insured lending institution, 18 U.S.C. § 1014.[11] Rusty Lawrence Elliott W. D. Mo. 1991 Making counterfeit Federal Reserve notes, 18 U.S.C. § 471.[11] Adam Wade Graham D. Wyo. 1992 Conspiracy to deliver 10 or more grams of LSD, 21 U.S.C. §§841(a)(1)841(b)(1)(A)(v), and 846.[11] Rufus Edward Harris 1. M. D. Ga.
2. N. D. Ga.
1. 1963
2. 1970
1. Possession of tax-unpaid whiskey, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5205 and2604.
2. Possession and selling tax-unpaid whiskey, 26 U.S.C. §§56015604, and 5205.[11]
Jesse Ray Harvey S. D. W. Va. 1990 Property damage by use of explosives and destruction of an energy facility, 18 U.S.C. §§ 844(i) and 1366(a).[11] Larry Paul Lenius D. No. Dak. 1989 Conspiracy to distribute cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 846.[11] Larry Lee Lopez M. D. Fla. 1985 Conspiracy to import marijuana21 U.S.C. §§ 952 and 953.[11] Bobbie Archie Maxwell M. D. Ga. 1962 Mailing a threatening letter, 18 U.S.C. § 876.[11] Denise Bitters Mendelkow D. Utah 1981 Embezzlement by a bank employee, 18 U.S.C. § 656.[11] Michael John Pozorski W. D. Wis. 1988 Unlawful possession of an unregistered firearm, 26 U.S.C. §§5861(d) and 5871.[11] Mark Lewis Weber U.S. Air Force general court-martial 1981 Selling Quaalude tablets (one specification) and selling, using, andpossessing marijuana (three specifications), Articles 92 and 134, UCMJ.[11] December 20, 2005 Name District Sentenced Offense Carl Eugene Cantrell E. D. Tenn. 1967 Violation of Internal Revenue Service liquor laws26 U.S.C. §§ 2601 et seq.[12] Charles Winston Carter S. (now Central) D. Ill. 1964 Conspiracy to steal property of the United States, 18 U.S.C. §§371 and 641.[12] Harper James Finucan D. So. Car. 1980 Possession with intent to distribute marijuana21 U.S.C.841|a|1.[12] Bobby Frank Kay, Sr. E. D. Va. 1959 Operation of an illegal distillery, 26 U.S.C. §§ 51745606,52165686(b), and 7302.[12] Melvin L. McKee D. Nev. 1982 Conspiracy to make and cause the making of false statements in loan applications; aiding and abetting the making of a materially false statement in a loan application, 18 U.S.C. §§ 3711014, and 2.[12] Charles Elis McKinley M. D. Tenn. 1950 Violation of Internal Revenue Service liquor laws26 U.S.C. § 1185 (as in effect in 1950).[12] Donald Lee Pendergrass S. D. Calif. 1964 Bank robbery by use of a dangerous weapon, 18 U.S.C. §§2113(a) and d.[12] Charles Blurford Power N. D. Ga. 1948 Interstate transportation of a stolen motor vehicle, 18 U.S.C. §408 (1940 edition).[12] John Gregory Schillace E. D. La. 1988 Conspiracy to possess cocaine with intent to distribute, 21 U.S.C. § 846.[12] Wendy Rose St. Charles, fka Wendy Rose St. Charles Holmes N. D. Ill. 1984 Conspiracy to conduct a narcotics enterprise, and distribution of cocaine, 18 U.S.C. § 1962(d) and 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1).[12] Jimmy Lee Williams N. D. Tex. 1995 False statement on a loan application, 18 U.S.C. § 1014.[12] April 18, 2006 Name District Sentenced Offense Patrick Harold Ackerman D. Ore. 1980 Filing false statements, 18 U.S.C. § 1001. Karen Marie Edmonson D. Minn. 1978 Distribution of methamphetamine, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1). Anthony Americo Franchi D. Mass. 1983 Income tax evasion26 U.S.C. § 7201. Timothy Mark Freudenthal E. D. Wis. 1985 Conspiracy to introduce imported merchandise into commerce of the United States, 18 U.S.C. § 371. George Anderson Glenn U.S. Army general court-martial 1956 Conspiracy to commit larceny and larceny, Articles 81 and 121, UCMJ Mark Reuben Hale E. D. Tex. 1991 Savings and Loan fraud, 18 U.S.C. § 1344. Kenneth Ward Hill N. D. Miss. 1992 Attempted tax evasion26 U.S.C. § 7201. Margaret Ann Leggett E. D. Ark. 1981 Conspiracy to defraud the United States by making false claims forincome tax refunds, 18 U.S.C. § 286. Elke Margarethe Mikaelian D. New Mex. 1993 Misprision of felony, 18 U.S.C. § 4. Karl Bruce Weber N. D. Fla. 1985 Possession of cocaine with intent to distribute, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1). Carl Manar White E. D. Okla. 1983 Conspiracy to defraud the United States and Pittsburgh County, Oklahoma, by tax evasion and mail fraud18 U.S.C. § 371. August 15, 2006 Name District Sentenced Offense James Leon Adams D. So. Car. 1976 Selling firearms to out-of-state residents and falsifying firearms records, 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(b)(3)922(m), and 924(a).[13] Tony Dale Ashworth D. So. Car. 1989 Unlawful transfer of a firearm, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5861(e) and5871.[13] Randall Leece Deal 1. N. D. Ga.
2. N. D. Ga
3. N. D. Ga.
1. 1960
2. 1964
3. 1964
1. Liquor law violation26 U.S.C.
2. Liquor law violation, 26 U.S.C.
3. Conspiracy to violate the liquor laws, 26 U.S.C.[13]
William Henry Eagle E. D. Ark. 1972 Possessing an unregistered still, carrying on the business of a distiller without giving the required bond, and manufacturing mash on other than lawfully qualified premises, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5601(a)(1)5601(a)(4), and 5601(a)(7).[13] Robert Carter Eversole E. D. Tenn. 1984 Conspiracy to commit theft from an interstate shipment, 18 U.S.C. § 371.[13] Kenneth Clifford Foner D. Neb. 1991 Conspiracy to impede functions of the FDIC, commitembezzlement as a bank officer, make false entries in the records of an FDIC-insured bank, and commit bank fraud, 18 U.S.C. §§3716561005, and 1344.[13] Victoria Diane Frost W. D. N. Y. 1994 Conspiracy to possess and distribute L-ephedrine hydrochloride,21 U.S.C. § 846.[13] William Grover Frye 1. U.S. Army general court-martial
2. S. D. Ind.
1. 1968
2. 1973
1. Absence without leave (two specifications), Article 86, UCMJ (10 U.S.C. § 886), and escape from lawful confinement, Article 95, UCMJ (10 U.S.C. § 895).
2. Sale of a stolen motor vehicle moving in interstate commerce,18 U.S.C. § 2313.[13]
Stanley Bernard Hamilton S. D. Miss. 1990 Altering U.S. postal money orders, 18 U.S.C. § 500.[13] Melodie Jean Hebert D. Rhode Island 1984 Conspiracy to defraud the United States by making false claims,18 U.S.C. §§ 371 and 1001.[13] James Earnest Kinard, Jr. D. So. Car. 1984 Failure by a licensed firearms dealer to make appropriate entries in firearms records required to be kept by law (four counts), making false entries by a licensed firearms dealer in firearms records required to be made by law, 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(m) and2.[13] Devin Timothy Kruse U.S. Coast Guard special court-martial 1978 Unauthorized absence, Article 86, UCMJ (10 U.S.C. § 886).[13] Gerard Murphy M. D. Fla. 1972 Theft of a motor vehicle from a U.S. Air Force base, 18 U.S.C. §§7 and 13.[13] Joseph Matthew Novak N. D. Ohio 1994 Possession and transfer of an illegal weapon, 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(o)(1) and 924(a)(2).[13] John Louis Ribando 1. C. D. Calif.
2. C. D. Calif.
1. 1976
2. 1978
1. Possession with intent to distribute a controlled substance (marijuana), 21 U.S.C. §§ 841(a)(1).
2. Conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute a controlled substance (marijuana), and importing a controlled substance (marijuana), 21 U.S.C. §§ 841(a)(1)846952(a)960(a)(1), and 963.[13]
Edward Rodriguez Trevino, Jr. U.S. Navy special court-martial 1997 Larceny, Article 121, UCMJ (10 U.S.C. § 921).[13] Jerry Dean Walker W. D. No. Car. 1989 Possession with intent to distribute cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1).[13] December 21, 2006 Name District Sentenced Offense Charles James Allen D. Md. 1979 Conspiracy to defraud the United States, 18 U.S.C. § 371. William Sidney Baldwin, Sr. D. So. Car. 1981 Conspiracy to possess marijuana21 U.S.C. § 846. Timothy Evans Barfield E. D. No. Car. 1989 Aiding and abetting false statements in a Small Business Administration loan application, 15 U.S.C. § 645(a) and 18 U.S.C. § 2. Clyde Philip Boudreaux U.S. Navy general court-martial 1975 Borrowing money from enlisted men, accepting a non-interest-bearing loan from a government contractor, and swearing to a false affidavit, Articles 92, 107, 134, UCMJ. Marie Georgette Ginette Briere D. P. R. 1982 Possession of cocaine with intent to distribute, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1). Dale C. Critz, Jr. M. D. Fla. 1989 Making a false statement, 18 U.S.C. § 1001. Mark Allen Eberwine W. D. Tex. 1985 (as amended in 1986) Conspiracy to defraud the United States by impeding, impairing, and obstructing the assessment of taxes by the Internal Revenue Service, 18 U.S.C. § 371; false declaration to the grand jury, 18 U.S.C. § 1623. Colin Earl Francis D. Conn. 1993 Accepting a kickback, 41 U.S.C. §§ 53 and 54. George Thomas Harley D. New Mex. 1984 Aiding and abetting the distribution of cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1) and 18 U.S.C. § 2 Patricia Ann Hultman W. D. Pa. 1985 Conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute and to distribute cocaine, 21 U.S.C. 846. Eric William Olson U.S. Army general court-martial 1984 Conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute, possession with intent to distribute, possession of, and use of hashish, Articles 81 and 134, UCMJ. Thomas R. Reece N. D. Ga. 1969 Violating the Internal Revenue Code pertaining to alcohol26 U.S.C. § 5681(c). Larry Gene Ross D. Wyo. 1989 Making false statements in a bank loan application, 18 U.S.C. § 1014. Jearld David Swanner W. D. Okla. 1991 Making false statements in a bank loan application, 18 U.S.C. § 1005. James Walter Taylor E. D. Ark. 1991 Bank fraud, 18 U.S.C. § 1344. Janet Theone Upton D. Nev. 1975 Mail fraud18 U.S.C. § 1341. December 10, 2007 Name District Sentenced Offense James Albert Bodendieck, Sr. S. D. Ill. 1959 Interstate transportation of a stolen vehicle, 18 U.S.C. § 2312.[14] Jeffrey James Bruce D. Haw. 1994 Possession of stolen mail, 18 U.S.C. § 1708.[14] Charles Wayne Bryant N. D. Ga. 1962 Theft of United States mail by employee, 18 U.S.C. § 1709.[14] Carleton Gregory Carpenter M. D. Fla 1981 Making a false representation with respect to information required to be kept in the records of a person holding a federal firearms license, 18 U.S.C. §§ 2 and 924(a). John Edward Casto N. D. W. Va. 1990 Distribution of cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1). Jackie Ray Clayborn W. D. Ark. 1993 Manufacturing marijuana21 U.S.C. § 841(b)(1)(D). Debbie Sue Conklin fka Debbie Sue McAlevy D. Neb. 1990 Conspiracy to distribute methamphetamine, 21 U.S.C. §§ 846and 841(a)(1). Charles Richard Fennell C. D. Calif. 1995 False statement to a federally-insured financial institution, 18 U.S.C. § 1014. John Fornaby S. D. Fla. 1991 Conspiracy to distribute cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 846. Daniel Ray Freeman S. D. Ga. 1963 Violation of Internal Revenue Service liquor laws26 U.S.C. §§5205(a)(2) and 5604(a)(1). Thomas Dee Gandy N. D. Tex. 1996 Mail fraud affecting a financial institution, 18 U.S.C. § 1341. Melton Harrell N. D. Ga. 1976 Theft of government property and receiving stolen government property, 18 U.S.C. § 641. Paul Dwight Hawkins M. D. Fla. 1990 Conspiracy to import marijuana21 U.S.C. § 963. Roger Paul Ingram W. D. Tex. 1987 Conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute an analogue of a Schedule I controlled substance, 3,4 methylenedioxymethamphetamine (ecstasy), 21 U.S.C. §§ 813,841(a)(1), and 846. William Lucius Jones, Jr. N. D. Ala. 1972 Illegal possession of an unregistered firearm, 26 U.S.C. § 5861(d). William Charles Jordan, Jr. M. D. Pa. 2000 Managing and conducting an illegal gambling business, 18 U.S.C. § 1955.[15] Saul Kaplan M. D. Pa. 1992 Violation of the Federal Election Campaign Act, 2 U.S.C. §§ 437g|d|1|A and 441a|1|A. Billy Joe LaForce S. D. Tex. 1991 Conspiracy to possess marijuana with intent to distribute, 21 U.S.C. §§ 846841(a)(1), and 841(b)(1)(D). Rudolph J. Macejak N. D. Ill. 1986 Possession of an unregistered firearm, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5861(d)and i. John F. McDermott D. Mass. 1995 Receiving kickbacks in defense procurement contracts, 41 U.S.C.§§ 51-54 and 18 U.S.C. § 2. William James Norman S. D. Ga. 1970 Possession of an unregistered distillery, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5179 and5601(a)(1); carrying on the business of a distiller without giving the required bond, 26 U.S.C. § 5601|a; possession and custody of a still without the required sign outside the premises, 26 U.S.C. §5180; working at a distillery without the required sign outside the premises, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5180 and 5681(c); unlawfully producing distilled spirits from mash and similar material, 26 U.S.C. §§ 5601(a)(8) and 5222. Glanus Terrell Osborne S. D. Ga. 1990 Possession of a stolen motor vehicle, 18 U.S.C. § 2313. John Gordon Smith N. D. Tex. 1988 False statement to a federal agency, 18 U.S.C. § 1001. Walter J. Sweeney, III S. D. Ohio 1993 Attempting to evade income taxes26 U.S.C. § 7201. Nancy Lynn Thompson N. D. Fla. 1997 Embezzlement by a bank employee, 18 U.S.C. § 656. Daryl Toney M. D. Ga. 1993 Misdemeanor theft within the special maritime and territorial jurisdiction of the United States, 18 U.S.C. § 641. Charles Eddie Trobaugh M. D. Tenn. 1965 Liquor law violations26 U.S.C. §§ 5179(a)5601(a)(1),52225601(a)(7), and 5604(a)(1). Samuel Lewis Whisel M. D. Pa. 1989 Aiding and abetting the interstate transportation of stolen goods,18 U.S.C. §§ 2314 and 2. Steven Wayne Whitlock M. D. Fla 1990 Conspiracy to import marijuana21 U.S.C. §§ 952960(b)(1)(G), and 963. March 24, 2008 Name District Sentenced Offense William L. Baker D. Wyo. 1980 Distribution of a controlled substance, 21 U.S.C. §§ 841|a|1, 841|b|2; falsifying records, 21 U.S.C. §§ 827(a)(3)843(a)(4).[16] George Francis Bauckham D. N. J. 1958 Unlawful detention, delay and secretion of mail by postal employee; 18 U.S.C. § 1703(a).[16] Kenneth Charles Britt D. Kan. 1998 Conspiracy to violate federal and state fish and wildlife laws; 18 U.S.C. § 371.[16] William Bruce Butt E. D. Ky. 1990 Bank embezzlement18 U.S.C. § 656.[16] Mariano Garza Caballero S. D. Tex. 1984 Dealing in firearms without a federal firearms license; 18 U.S.C. §§922(a)(1) and 2.[16] Anthony C. Foglio aka Tony Foley N. D. W. Va. 1996 Distribution of marijuana21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1). Marvin Robert Foster D. Rhode Island 1968 False statement in connection with a Federal Housing Administration loan; 18 U.S.C. § 1010. Carl Harry Hachmeister D. Utah 1985 Conspiracy (to commit wire and mail fraud); 18 U.S.C. § 371. William Marcus McDonald U.S. Air Force general court-martial 1984 Distribution of cocaine, possession of cocaine with intent to distribute, use of cocaine, possession of cocaine, use ofmarijuana; Article 134, U.C.M.J. Robert Michael Milroy E. D. Va. 1975 Importation of heroin; 21 U.S.C. §§ 960(a)(1)952(a), and843(b). Jerry Lynn Moldenhauer D. Col. 1994 Knowingly selling migratory bird parts in violation of Migratory Bird Treaty Act; 16 U.S.C. §§ 703 and 707(b). Thomas Donald Moldenhauer D. Col. 1994 Knowingly selling migratory bird parts in violation of Migratory Bird Treaty Act; 16 U.S.C. §§ 703 and 707(b). Richard James Putney, aka Richard James Putney, Jr. N. D. W. Va. 1996 Aiding and abetting the escape of a prisoner; 18 U.S.C. §§752(a) and 2. Timothy Alfred Thone D. Minn. 1987 Making a false statement to the Department of Housing and Urban Development to obtain a mortgage loan; 18 U.S.C. § 1010. Lonnie Edward Two Eagle, Sr. D. S. Dak. 1976 Simple assault committed on an Indian reservation (misdemeanor); 18 U.S.C. §§ 1153 and 113(e), now 18 U.S.C.§ 113(a)(5), as re-numbered and amended. November 24, 2008 Name District Sentenced Offense Leslie Owen Collier E. D. Mo. 1996 Unauthorized use of a registered pesticide, 7 U.S.C. §§ 136(j)(a)(2)(F) and 136(l)(b); violation of the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, 16 U.S.C. § 668(a).[17][18] Milton Kirk Cordes D. So. Dak. 1998 Conspiracy to violate the Lacey Act; 18 U.S.C. § 37116 U.S.C.§§ 3372(a)(2)(A)3373(d)(1)(B).[17] Richard Micheal Culpepper C. D. Ill. 1988 False statements to the United States; 18 U.S.C. § 287.[17]
  1. William Charles Davis (1983 income tax evasion)[10]
Brenda Jean Dolenz-Helmer N. D. Tex 1998 Misprision of a felony18 U.S.C. § 4.[17] Andrew Foster Harley U.S. Air Force general court-martial 1985 Wrongful use and distribution of marijuana and cocaine; Article 112a, Uniform Code of Military Justice.[17] Obie Gene Helton E. D. Tenn. 1983 Unauthorized acquisition of food stamps7 U.S.C. § 2024(b)18 U.S.C. § 2.[17] Carey C. Hice, Sr. D. So. Car. 1996 Income tax evasion26 U.S.C. § 7201 and 18 U.S.C. § 2.[17] Geneva Yvonne Hogg D. So. Car. 1980 Bank embezzlement18 U.S.C. § 657.[17] William Hoyle McCright, Jr. W. D. Tex. 1986 Making false entries, books, reports or statements of bank; 18 U.S.C. § 1005.[17] Paul Julian McCurdy E. D. Okla. 1988 Misapplication of bank funds by a bank officer; 18 U.S.C. § 656.[17] Robert Earl Mohon, Jr. N. D. Ala. 1987 Conspiracy to distribute marijuana21 U.S.C. §§ 841 and846.[17] Ronald Alan Mohrhoff C. D. Calif. 1984 Unlawful use of a telephone in furtherance of a narcotics felony, 21 U.S.C. § 843(b)possession of cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 844(a).[17] Daniel Figh Pue, III S. D. Tex. 1996 Illegal treatment, storage, and disposal of a hazardous wastewithout a permit, 42 U.S.C. § 6928(d)(2)(A); illegal transportation of a hazardous waste to an unpermitted facility for storage or disposal, 42 U.S.C. § 6928(d)(1).[17] Orion Lynn Vick D. Ariz. 1975 Aiding and abetting the theft of government property; 18 U.S.C. §§641 and 2.[17] January 1, 2009 Name District Sentenced Offense William Thomas Alvis, III N. D. W. Va. 1990 Possession of an unregistered firearm, 26 U.S.C. § 5861; distribution of cocaine, 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1).[19] John Allen Aregood S. D. Tex. 1996 Conspiracy to harbor and transport illegal aliens; 18 U.S.C. §371, 8 U.S.C. § 1324|a|1|A(ii)(iii).[19] Eric Charles Blanke S. D. Calif. 1995 Making impressions of obligations of the United States; 18 U.S.C. § 474.[19] Steven Doyle Cavender N. D. Ala. 1973 Conspiring to import, possess, distribute and dispense marijuana; importing and causing to be imported marijuana; possessing marijuana with intent to distribute; 18 U.S.C. § 37121 U.S.C. §§841(a)(1)952(a).[19] Marie Elena Eppens D. Neb. 1992 Conspiracy to distribute and to possess with intent to distributemarijuana18 U.S.C. § 846.[19] Lydia Lee Ferguson D. Ariz. 1990 Aiding and abetting possession of stolen mail; 18 U.S.C. §§1708 and 2.[19] Eduviges Duvi Gonzalez-Matsumura C. D. Calif. 1993 Aiding and abetting embezzlement of bank funds; 18 U.S.C. §§656 and 2.[19] George Clarence Greene, Jr. N. D. Ga. 1985 Mail fraud18 U.S.C. §§ 1341 and 2.[19] James Won Hee Kang N. D. Ill. 1985 Trafficking in counterfeit goods; 18 U.S.C. § 2320.[19] Alan Stephen Maiss E. D. La. 1995 Misprision of a felony18 U.S.C. § 4.[19] Richard Harold Miller N. D. Fla. 1993 Conspiracy to defraud the United States; 18 U.S.C. § 371.[19] Delano Abraham Nixon D. Kan. 1962 Forging the endorsement on a U.S. Treasury check; 18 U.S.C. § 495.[19] John H. Overholt D. So. Dak. 1998 Concealment of information affecting Social Security benefits; 42 U.S.C. § 408(a)(4).[19] Morris Keith Parker D. So. Car. 1991 Misprision of a felony18 U.S.C. § 4.[19] Robert Truman Reece 1. & 2. U.S. Navy summary courts-martial
3. U.S. Navy summary court-martial
1949
1950
1. & 2. Unauthorized absence.
3. Unauthorized absence; missing ship's movement.[19]
Donald Edward Roessler S. D. Ohio 1971 Embezzlement of mail matter by a postal employee; 18 U.S.C. § 1709.[19] Charles Thompson Winters S. D. Fla. 1949 Conspiracy to illegally export, and illegal exportation, of a military aircraft to a foreign country; 18 U.S.C. §§ 88 (1946 ed.) and 371,22 U.S.C. § 452, and Presidential Proclamation 2776 (dated March 26, 1948). Issac Robert Toussie     False statements to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, mail fraud; revoked one day later)[irt 1][19][20] David Lane Woolsey D. Utah 1992 Archaeological Resources Protection Act violation; 16 U.S.C http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_by_George_W._Bush Even Putin couldn't beat the record of the man who is responsible for the 12 years of killings and destruction of the people of Iraq. How proud you must be to be a devoted worshiper of him.
Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:54 | 5618539 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

When all bonds hit below zero, there are no buyers and all central banks will be their own buyers.

deflation in that way is exactly what they need because otherwise, the money that went into those bonds would create a hyperinflation.

so:

If they start buying more bonds, and deflation remains, all will be good and the people with high debts will be completly wiped out.

If they start buying more bonds and also keep propping up the market to create inflation... thing can run out of control fast 

so anyway:

Most of us are fucked as these periods take about 15 to 20 years to pass by. And what road are we going to travel? 

So if they let the market crash, our personal debts will crush us all. If they keep propping it up we’ll never own enough gold to ride it all out.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:58 | 5618541 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

When you:  get paid nothing on your savings, insurance/rent/utilities/food go up non-stop, there are wild swings in tangible commodities, and labor force participation and wages are at historic lows - you might live on a Central Bank/Bankster plantation.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:59 | 5618552 MEFOBILLS
MEFOBILLS's picture

The price for Capital at the top of financial pyramid is almost free .25% or so.

Also, the top of the system suck money from the bottom, something like a pressure differential.  Therefore, this money has to go somewhere.  Money is available at the top in abundance. 

One part of the flow is QE from FED, and that always targets debt instruments.  Effectively, QE creates money from nothing and swaps for Instruments made available to them by TBTF banks. QE money flows in reserve channels, but some leaks out through TBTF buying and transferring bonds/debt instruments from primary or secondary markets.

Excess dollar reserves at private banks are now monetized by FED, meaning it does not even have to be an instrument, it can simply be money held in reserve loops.  FED pays banks to not put their excess dollar reserves on overnight market, to thus prevent a rate collapse to zero.  

Note: as soon as FED starting doing this "paying for reserves" western banks started a hot flow carry trade.  This carry trade was directed mostly at the BRICS and their more stable system.  Further impetus to break away from Dollar then occured just after 2008.

Bonds will be bought by FED system, keeping bond price up and hence bond interest rate low.  Bond markets now know this.  Have interest rates increased?  NO!  Even if bonds fall in price, the idea is to keep interest rates low, and hence the need for QE.  Now with interest rate swaps, the rate needs to stay low otherwise the banks will drain toward municipalites. Their greed has boxed them in, along with us.

Securities on wall street seem to be the only game in town.  The top of finanical pyramid sucks in money from below and can spend wherever it likes.  It also can borrow very cheaply to gamble on said securities.  Chaos and instability in foreign markets, ironically comes back to wall street for safety, also bidding up security prices.

See the movie, it will take about 1.5 hours of your time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96c2wXcNA7A

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:34 | 5618775 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Credit card debt, of 4 years ago, is worth 12% of its original rate.

I know of cc companies two years ago who have bullied clients yet will settle for 10% of the cc debt now, just to end it. But only because the client can keep the hawks at bay.

No trespassing means no trespassing.

Fight back, men. Fight hard and be resolute.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:08 | 5618570 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It is software. The FED connected the applications at the end of 2011. BTFD the markets don't have anything to do with finance outside of FRAUD. Although the siphoning off of wealth from the true economy must result in devaluation of fiat overall.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:27 | 5618618 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Do we think there are soon to be so many SnP sellers that the Central Bank and its cohorts won't be able to hit all the asks with their free money? 

Because that is what it will take.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:32 | 5618632 much obliged
much obliged's picture

 

“Growth” is a Ponzi that nobody ever mentions. What else can growth be on a finite planet. If a corporation's growth slows, stops or reverses, the value of the corporation decreases and the value of the stock goes down (in a real non-QE economy). The corporation continues to have profit that don't go to shareholders. Take “growth” out of the equation and shareholders collect share value according to the profit. The planet stays in sustainable equilibrium.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:48 | 5619072 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Take “growth” out of the equation and shareholders collect share value according to the profit.

The good old logistic function.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:34 | 5618635 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Depression. Look at Zillow values from the Breadbasket of the US. Cratered in August, never to return. Gasoline, depressed. Natty gas, depressed. Gallon of milk, inflated.

$7.12 for organic milk. We are crashing hard.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:52 | 5618671 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So S&P should really be around 600 today, ok got it.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:08 | 5618719 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

I always said we should retest the 666 bottom..........

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:27 | 5618766 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

666 being the mystic version of "dumbass"?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:51 | 5618825 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Probably, if one is mired in last century's metrics.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:07 | 5618864 goosee
goosee's picture

but now we have the Rosengren Put.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:14 | 5618873 noben
noben's picture

People and talking heads are looking and talking the wrong direction once again.

It's not about a Recovery (anymore), but about "keeping the sheep calm", so that the Wealth Transfer can continue. From the 98% to the 2%. And even more so to the 0.1%.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:19 | 5618883 freedom123
freedom123's picture
People power in Hungary as protesters stage huge anti-government rally

http://youtu.be/4bGQYH9VXVk

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:39 | 5618928 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

I wonder how much the CIA had to pay for that?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:56 | 5618942 freedom123
freedom123's picture

"Have you stopped beating your wife?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loaded_question

I see Putin regime very similar to Hitler rising regime. So I don't need to be payed to reveal everything about Putin regime. It's everyones duty to do that.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:25 | 5619014 bid the soldier...
Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:12 | 5619481 malek
malek's picture

Duty
I think your first duty should be to turn on your brain.

Sidenote:
Your selection of rising regime is telling. It kind of excuses you from showing us what super evil things Putin has been doing as he hasn't reached full evil maturity yet (in your logic.)

I don't really believe you are here for discussion and not trolling, but if you are you should make a list (write it down if necessary) what crazy things you would expect Putin to do in reaction to some future situations, and then compare what really comes to fruition. Disclaimer: needs the ability to monitor from a neutral mental position to work.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:54 | 5618956 freedom123
freedom123's picture
"Putin drives this conflict in a new way forward , some speak of " hybrid warfare" . This includes clearly also an attempt to public opinion in Russia itself to influence in Ukraine, but also in Germany - even through propaganda , through manipulation of opinion. For Russia's government spends a lot of money."
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/interview-mit-cdu-politiker-norbert-r...


Sun, 01/04/2015 - 05:15 | 5620175 Wild E Coyote
Wild E Coyote's picture

You are completely wrong. Everyone in media world knows Russians are so stingy in paying for propoganda. That was then Soviet Union. Russia is a bunch of pussies. 

Even now, Russians are begging US to stop the pain and return to negotiating table. Dont overestimate the Russians. There is no symatrical warfare. just plain posturing and weeping behind the scenes. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:19 | 5619005 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

look tyler yeh commodities should have reflected the no growth real economy we all know that exists.  But energy prices are being manipulated and recently its ngas which remains 25% below 2013 levels despite this Jan forecasted way below norm vs that year at -2 vs +2 which is a huge difference and inv levels similar to thay yr.  In oil prices remain well below $20 below lvls where US production will increase vs contract yet prices continue to fall as BBG every day spouts GLUT in their headlines as well as not a peeep about frigid cold coming.  Why dont u wake up and start looking into this.......i have and its clear energy has decoupled from the fundamentals as the regime declares war on prices.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:44 | 5619182 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

It's on slow steady ascent with Boeing Uninterruptible Autopilot until the globalists remotely hijack the financial airline and send it plunging into the abyss releasing chaos on the world

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 23:05 | 5619708 Bear
Bear's picture

Oh, but this time it's different

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 11:21 | 5620480 Big_X
Big_X's picture

Breach the atmosphere, drop the boosters.

"Can you hear me Major Tom?"

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