This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"We're Going To Need A Bigger Chart"-Of-The-Day: Bullish Sentiment Edition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

What "wall of worry"? Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator has reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of euphoric positioning...

 

 

As Goldman warns...

Sentiment Indicator ranks net futures positioning versus the past 12 months. Readings
below 10 or above 90 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.

*  *  *

Trade accordingly...

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:05 | 5619482 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

Insufficient data on chart.  Take ot back 10 years so 2008-9 is included. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:14 | 5619501 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Agree. Also the low sentiment months ago seem unlikely to foreshadow returns in even the medium term.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:14 | 5619612 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Here's to swimmin' with bow-legged women!

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 02:20 | 5620036 tplink
tplink's picture

my co-worker's ex-wife makes $84 every hour on the internet . She has been laid off for six months but last month her check was $18827 just working on the internet for a few hours. go to this website... www.works3.com

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:44 | 5620157 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Why ? Overbullishness is one of the most reliable market  top indicators available; and it's only one of many that  are all flashing like red emergency lights.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 11:55 | 5620532 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

It's not only that sentiment:

 

 

Whether at the institutional or the mom-and-pop level, investors are pouring more money than ever before into U.S.-based equity funds.

Both mutual and exchange-traded funds saw their biggest weekly inflows in history last week. ETFs alone have witnessed their largest-ever three-month run, according to data analysis firm TrimTabs.

 

www.cnbc.com/id/102301431

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:11 | 5619498 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

Is their highlighted quote immediately followed by the ever present hierarchical system of fraud disclaimer "Past performance is not an indication of future returns"

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:24 | 5619517 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Bury your Dead!

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:28 | 5619524 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the s&p is a guaranteed winner (unlike gold :shudders:)

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:26 | 5619525 Doug
Doug's picture

"We're Going To Need A Bigger Chart"

 

That could be the funniest headline of 2015 and it's only January 3rd.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 23:24 | 5619741 nailgunnin4you
nailgunnin4you's picture

I'm surprised you have not seen this headline used before being a 5+ year member.

 

 

 

We recycled some jokes.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 08:51 | 5620292 Doug
Doug's picture

Yeah, who knows?  Either I never saw it or it just never resonated before.  But thanks for noticing.  On both counts.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 10:10 | 5620376 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Maybe he has a life ;)

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:34 | 5619544 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Might as well be measured in rainbows over skittles.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:36 | 5619548 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Red Rocket Sparky RED ROCKET!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgH6lKKaI9g

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:42 | 5619549 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Federal Reserve's QE 4 is a sure thing. As soon as the market drops a bit the Fed gets scared and announces the next round of QE.

Next QE will be required to be even larger (At least $125 billion/month instead of the $85 billion/month previousely(QE 3)?).

That should hyper-inflate the S&P even further.

It occured with QE 3. Expect QE 4, QE 5 etc until the US dollar blows.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:06 | 5619599 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

This will get interesting if the "Audit the Fed" bill passes.

Even if it doesn't, I might actually watch the Ponzi Munchkin in live time flap her gums during the Senate hearings for the "squirm value".  Here's hoping that her exchange with Elizabeth Warren will look friendly by comparison.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:40 | 5620154 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I don't believe it; for reasons to lengthy to go into here; why do you want to believe it / to support your maintaining a stock position ? Don't do it. You know milk cartons have a sell by date on them ? This Stock Market is past it's sell by date. It's always different this time; and yet they always crash. always.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:43 | 5619559 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I thought the Matterhorn set good upper and lower bound sigma guidance...Apparently I was ignorant and misinformed.

 I've since reset my standard deviation scales to Mt. Everest levels.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:47 | 5619567 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Bulls and bears make money and I see nothing but the all clear on the "bull-o-meter.". Wall Street's job is not to be defensive.

 

" turn than million into a billion please."

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 21:49 | 5619571 stateside
stateside's picture

Sentiment all-time high on general equities yet all-time low on gold stocks.  That's what is called a no-brainer decision going forward. 

 

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:02 | 5619588 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Contrary to Mr. Marc to Bullshits thread earlier. Get ready for the $usd retrace. It's going to be violent, just like 2008-'09.

 I'm not going to call the shill names. It post's diatriabe all over the trading community.

 The Q-4 '14 earnings cycle starts in (2) weeks, and I can't wait to see the "buy side" scramble.  Bitchez

 Mario Draghi is giant 'Italian Meatball' smothered in jawbone sauce! If it get's serious {Edwald"douchemeister" Nowotny} can take up jawboning slack!

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:11 | 5619610 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

Yen, always enjoy your posts.   Seems like we are the only 2 seeing the USD retracing.   Regardless,  gold is going up in financial asset terms.   

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:26 | 5619632 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thanks for the comment. I can assure you many traders are well aware of the overbought nature of $usd.

 The ponzi is nearing it's end. Between Russian Sino "SWIFT" alternatives in May, and massivly overwieght emerging market $usd exposure, I think we're going to have a really fun Q-1 '15.

 We watched the £ get jawboned by Carney last year and NOW snap elections are coming.

   We watched the ¥ get hammered and retrace, then hover like UFO @ 120.

We watched the CHF test, even with negative rates, the 1.20 €/ƒ handle. We've gotta real shitstorm  coming, and I can't wait!

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 00:17 | 5619861 remain calm
remain calm's picture

So Yen Cross, do you think the YEN gets stronger against the dollar?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 00:32 | 5619896 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I wouldn't be surprised to see 112, or possibly high 104's before March '15. I also think It's possible the Sterling slips into the high 140's.

 I think we're going to see significant strengthening in Yuan over the next 6-12 months. I think the Australian$ relative to the Chinese market strength is undervalued. Glen Stevens is a nice guy but has very little understanding of trade weighting currencies.

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 01:26 | 5619946 remain calm
remain calm's picture

I just don't see how the Yen strengthens when they are printing 80 Billion a month, while we have temporily stop printing until 2016(most likely). How does the Yen get stronger? I am no currency trader just a common sense big picture macro guy. And these aren't my thoughts they are Kyle Bass's thoughts, I am just a observer, trying to not get slaughtered.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:23 | 5620138 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

If you don't want to get slaughtered buy Silver Bullion and stay out of the OK Corral.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 10:31 | 5620402 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Koresh compound might be a more apt metaphor:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Koresh

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:35 | 5620148 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Slightly strengthened; short term, 20% probability ? no underlying force for significant strengthening. short the pound instead.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:21 | 5620136 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Mitch Feierstein of PLanet Ponzi.com, says we're looking at the highest price for Sterling we'll see in our lifetimes. It's going to "slip" to fifty cents. You can just short it in a one year off contract and forget about it. Come back and pick up your money next thanksgiving. It's a good website; he's a pro. in the Financial Industry, and he doesn't pull punches; the name of the website pretty much is the viewpoint.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:38 | 5620143 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Many countries want to enter a currency war, but guess I will have to check his site to figure out why Royals & Banks would want to devalue.

- Logic must be after causing massive debt, looting corporations, and causing bailouts and recession... the Labor Force can Produce our way put of the Weakness and Recession and loss in currency Value.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:30 | 5620142 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Where do you want to put  money ? Where the outcome is 90-10 odds on for your position. the British Pound sticks out like a sore thumb; they don't have an economy. Prostitution and Heroin in the GDP ? Carney in charge of the Bank ? The pound is a classic example of massive mis-pricing by the market; it will correct.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 14:21 | 5620890 misnomer00
misnomer00's picture

Dont know about USD/JPY, but i think USD/CHF is headed to 2.0; and GBP/USD to parity. Also seeing Yen cross plummet and Gold rallying. I think at best Yen stabilizes in 110-120 region; otherwise it continues higher.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 04:35 | 5620146 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yep. dump all stocks; and buy Silver Bulliion. Forget about stocks, of any kind; especially mining stocks. it's the metal you want, not the company prospectus.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 09:34 | 5620327 breadonwaters
breadonwaters's picture

 

IMHO, it is the oil derivatives coming home to roost will be the big story first....then the crash.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 12:58 | 5620659 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The last time I had a BULLISH SENTIMENT, my wife faked a headache...

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:25 | 5621043 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

With all the non-US currencies fallling against the USD, who is going to be able to afford to buy UST?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!