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"We're Going To Need A Bigger Chart"-Of-The-Day: Bullish Sentiment Edition
What "wall of worry"? Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator has reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of euphoric positioning...
As Goldman warns...
Sentiment Indicator ranks net futures positioning versus the past 12 months. Readings
below 10 or above 90 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.
* * *
Trade accordingly...
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Insufficient data on chart. Take ot back 10 years so 2008-9 is included.
Agree. Also the low sentiment months ago seem unlikely to foreshadow returns in even the medium term.
Here's to swimmin' with bow-legged women!
my co-worker's ex-wife makes $84 every hour on the internet . She has been laid off for six months but last month her check was $18827 just working on the internet for a few hours. go to this website... www.works3.com
Why ? Overbullishness is one of the most reliable market top indicators available; and it's only one of many that are all flashing like red emergency lights.
It's not only that sentiment:
www.cnbc.com/id/102301431
Is their highlighted quote immediately followed by the ever present hierarchical system of fraud disclaimer "Past performance is not an indication of future returns"
Bury your Dead!
the s&p is a guaranteed winner (unlike gold :shudders:)
"We're Going To Need A Bigger Chart"
That could be the funniest headline of 2015 and it's only January 3rd.
I'm surprised you have not seen this headline used before being a 5+ year member.
We recycled some jokes.
Yeah, who knows? Either I never saw it or it just never resonated before. But thanks for noticing. On both counts.
Maybe he has a life ;)
Might as well be measured in rainbows over skittles.
Red Rocket Sparky RED ROCKET!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgH6lKKaI9g
The Federal Reserve's QE 4 is a sure thing. As soon as the market drops a bit the Fed gets scared and announces the next round of QE.
Next QE will be required to be even larger (At least $125 billion/month instead of the $85 billion/month previousely(QE 3)?).
That should hyper-inflate the S&P even further.
It occured with QE 3. Expect QE 4, QE 5 etc until the US dollar blows.
This will get interesting if the "Audit the Fed" bill passes.
Even if it doesn't, I might actually watch the Ponzi Munchkin in live time flap her gums during the Senate hearings for the "squirm value". Here's hoping that her exchange with Elizabeth Warren will look friendly by comparison.
I don't believe it; for reasons to lengthy to go into here; why do you want to believe it / to support your maintaining a stock position ? Don't do it. You know milk cartons have a sell by date on them ? This Stock Market is past it's sell by date. It's always different this time; and yet they always crash. always.
I thought the Matterhorn set good upper and lower bound sigma guidance...Apparently I was ignorant and misinformed.
I've since reset my standard deviation scales to Mt. Everest levels.
Bulls and bears make money and I see nothing but the all clear on the "bull-o-meter.". Wall Street's job is not to be defensive.
" turn than million into a billion please."
Sentiment all-time high on general equities yet all-time low on gold stocks. That's what is called a no-brainer decision going forward.
Contrary to Mr. Marc to Bullshits thread earlier. Get ready for the $usd retrace. It's going to be violent, just like 2008-'09.
I'm not going to call the shill names. It post's diatriabe all over the trading community.
The Q-4 '14 earnings cycle starts in (2) weeks, and I can't wait to see the "buy side" scramble. Bitchez
Mario Draghi is giant 'Italian Meatball' smothered in jawbone sauce! If it get's serious {Edwald"douchemeister" Nowotny} can take up jawboning slack!
Yen, always enjoy your posts. Seems like we are the only 2 seeing the USD retracing. Regardless, gold is going up in financial asset terms.
Thanks for the comment. I can assure you many traders are well aware of the overbought nature of $usd.
The ponzi is nearing it's end. Between Russian Sino "SWIFT" alternatives in May, and massivly overwieght emerging market $usd exposure, I think we're going to have a really fun Q-1 '15.
We watched the £ get jawboned by Carney last year and NOW snap elections are coming.
We watched the ¥ get hammered and retrace, then hover like UFO @ 120.
We watched the CHF test, even with negative rates, the 1.20 €/ƒ handle. We've gotta real shitstorm coming, and I can't wait!
So Yen Cross, do you think the YEN gets stronger against the dollar?
I wouldn't be surprised to see 112, or possibly high 104's before March '15. I also think It's possible the Sterling slips into the high 140's.
I think we're going to see significant strengthening in Yuan over the next 6-12 months. I think the Australian$ relative to the Chinese market strength is undervalued. Glen Stevens is a nice guy but has very little understanding of trade weighting currencies.
I just don't see how the Yen strengthens when they are printing 80 Billion a month, while we have temporily stop printing until 2016(most likely). How does the Yen get stronger? I am no currency trader just a common sense big picture macro guy. And these aren't my thoughts they are Kyle Bass's thoughts, I am just a observer, trying to not get slaughtered.
If you don't want to get slaughtered buy Silver Bullion and stay out of the OK Corral.
Koresh compound might be a more apt metaphor:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Koresh
Slightly strengthened; short term, 20% probability ? no underlying force for significant strengthening. short the pound instead.
Mitch Feierstein of PLanet Ponzi.com, says we're looking at the highest price for Sterling we'll see in our lifetimes. It's going to "slip" to fifty cents. You can just short it in a one year off contract and forget about it. Come back and pick up your money next thanksgiving. It's a good website; he's a pro. in the Financial Industry, and he doesn't pull punches; the name of the website pretty much is the viewpoint.
Many countries want to enter a currency war, but guess I will have to check his site to figure out why Royals & Banks would want to devalue.
- Logic must be after causing massive debt, looting corporations, and causing bailouts and recession... the Labor Force can Produce our way put of the Weakness and Recession and loss in currency Value.
Where do you want to put money ? Where the outcome is 90-10 odds on for your position. the British Pound sticks out like a sore thumb; they don't have an economy. Prostitution and Heroin in the GDP ? Carney in charge of the Bank ? The pound is a classic example of massive mis-pricing by the market; it will correct.
Dont know about USD/JPY, but i think USD/CHF is headed to 2.0; and GBP/USD to parity. Also seeing Yen cross plummet and Gold rallying. I think at best Yen stabilizes in 110-120 region; otherwise it continues higher.
Yep. dump all stocks; and buy Silver Bulliion. Forget about stocks, of any kind; especially mining stocks. it's the metal you want, not the company prospectus.
IMHO, it is the oil derivatives coming home to roost will be the big story first....then the crash.
The last time I had a BULLISH SENTIMENT, my wife faked a headache...
With all the non-US currencies fallling against the USD, who is going to be able to afford to buy UST?