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David Rosenberg Has A Question For His Clients

Tyler Durden's picture




 

David Rosenberg, formerly of bailed-out Merrill Lynch and currently at Gluskin Sheff, who famously flip-flopped from being a self-described permabear to uber-bull last summer for the one reason that has yet to manifest itself in any way, shape or form, namely declaring that wage inflation as imminent (it wasn't, but perhaps Mr. Rosenberg was merely forecasting the trajectory of his own wages) and generally an end to deflation, has a rhetorical question for his paying clients, as asked in his letter to investors from January 2. To wit:

THIS IS WHAT PASSES FOR ANALYSIS?

 

The following rant (entitled For CNBC, 2014 was the Worst. Year. Ever.) was sent to me yesterday — this is apparently what was on a financial blogger’s website:

Another year of putting lipstick on the zombie known as the global economy, kept walking only thanks to $11 trillion in liquidity injections by the world’s central banks and tens of trillions of new Chinese credit created out of thin air and promptly misallocated and embezzled, and the results are in. The bottom line: according to Nielsen, is that despite the S&P recording a whopping 53 all time highs, and the Dow rising over 18,000, the channel that was once must watch financial TV for mom and pop, and has since  devolved into endless cheerleading of failed policies and rigged markets, namely CNBC, just suffered its worst year in, well, ever.

This is exactly what I mean when I have previously written that there are segments of the perma-bear community that literally live their lives on the lunatic fringe.

 

This is heavier than religion, the Tea Party or Red Sox Nation for that matter. To these fanatics, if the market rallies, it is due to some unholy alliance somewhere, and if the market dives, it is a case of good triumphing over evil.

 

Seriously, I have been in this business for 30 years and never before have found such emotion residing in the bear camp — a camp I belonged to from 2000 to 2012.

 

I should add that in that 12-year span, I was a favourite of this particular financial blog, and when I changed views two-and-a-half years ago, I became a pariah and a subject of jokes and derision. Now they have turned their attention to CNBC.

 

I think these guys should subject themselves to a New Year’s resolution: show respect because there are in fact two sides to every debate.

The "financial blogger" is of course, Zero Hedge, and the article he is referring to is one which was read by over 70,000 readers, and which shares factual information about the viewership of CNBC - a station where Mr. Rosenberg appeared just a few weeks ago (when he said that the Fed is "not going to raise rates in 2015" - which is odd considering Mr. Rosenberg's "bullish conversion" took place precisely because of what he perceived as imminent inflation), and a station which, we should add, used Mr. Rosenberg's own rant in its defense. We say factual, because we would be curious to see just what facts the abovementioned Mr. Rosenberg can share that reveal he has become a "subject of jokes and derision." Then again, when branding something a "fanatic", a "lunatic fringe", and - generally - a conspiracy theorist, facts are the last thing one needs.

Just as Mr. Rosenberg is aware he can't quite bash the "heavy" tea party, with or without facts, an entity which on the record he praised back when he did not see himself as a self-proclaimed "mainstream pundit":

You know what — I am sick and tired of all the so-called mainstream pundits out there lambasting the Tea Party. Those who know me, and know me well, know that I am not some right-wing nutbar but come on. Why is everyone so scared about committing to a balanced budget amendment? Why is there so much fear about admitting that living within your means is not a terrible thing? Government spending, in the United States, is simply out of control.

Instead of responding to Rosenberg's rant to what he claims is another rant, we will merely respond with a rhetorical question of our own:

IS THIS IS WHAT PASSES FOR ANALYSIS?

 From Rosenberg's December 23 take of the very public and quite famous 5.0% annualized Q3 GDP:

Want to know why nobody talks about that 2.1% GDP contraction all the way back in the first quarter?

 

It's because since then we have seen a +4.6% reading for Q2 and, with the final revision in, Q3 is now reported at +5%! This compares to +3.5% for the first estimate and +3.9% for the second guess and is now the best quarterly growth in 11 years (as in Q3 2003; nine months hence, the Fed was moving its 1% fed funds rate).

 

Service sector spending was revised the most — now +2.5% instead of +1.2% as the government statisticians have been having a devil of a time assessing health care  spending this year with all the changes that have taken place.

 

But seriously, there is nothing at all that is more cyclical than consumer spending on big-ticket durable goods and look at these numbers: +9.2% in Q3, +14.1% in Q2, +3.2% in Q1, +5.7% in last year's Q4 and +4.9% in Q3 of 2013. This shows that the personal sector, even though housing is still in a soft state, is making a real commitment here to the economy.

 

This is a real show of confidence in the outlook and is being underscored now in every consumer sentiment poll.

 

Total business spending was revised up too, to +8.9% at an annual rate from the second revision of +7.1% and the preliminary estimate of just +5.5% (and comes atop a 9.7% expansion in Q2), and this helps take the sting out of the weak durables report for November.

 

Real final sales that exclude net exports and inventories came in a solid 4.1% pace, and real gross domestic income was +4.7% in addition to the 4.0% gain in Q2 — strength all around.

And there you have the "analysis" - endless praise for the topic most near and dear to any bullish economist's heart, GDP, with one entire sentence, or 38 words, dedicated to the "devil of a time" GDP revisions and health care spending (in fact, there was one whole instance of the word "health" in the entire report, we checked twice).

Now compare this to the following actual analysis of the GDP revision:

Here Is The Reason For The "Surge" In Q3 GDP

 

Back in June, when we were looking at the final Q1 GDP print, we discovered something very surprising: after the BEA had first reported that absent for Obamacare, Q1 GDP would have been negative in its first Q1 GDP report, subsequent GDP prints imploded as a result of what is now believed to be the polar vortex. But the real surprise was that the Obamacare boost was, in the final print, revised massively lower to actually reduce GDP!

 

This is how the unprecedented trimming of Obamacare's contribution to GDP looked like back then.

 

 

Of course, even back then we knew what this means: payback is coming, and all the BEA is looking for is the right quarter in which to insert the "GDP boost". This is what we said verbatim:

Don't worry thought: this is actually great news! Because the brilliant propaganda minds at the Dept of Commerce figured out something banks also realized with the stub "kitchen sink" quarter in November 2008. Namely, since Q1 is a total loss in GDP terms, let's just remove Obamacare spending as a contributor to Q1 GDP and just shove it in Q2. 

 

Stated otherwise, some $40 billion in PCE that was supposed to boost Q1 GDP will now be added to Q2-Q4.

 

And now, we all await as the US department of truth says, with a straight face, that in Q2 the US GDP "grew" by over 5% (no really: you'll see).

Well, we were wrong: it wasn't Q2. It was Q3, albeit precisely in the Q2-Q4 interval we expected.

 

Fast forward to today when as every pundit is happy to report, the final estimate of Q3 GDP indeed rose by 5% (no really, just as we predicted), with a surge in personal consumption being the main driver of US growth in the June-September quarter. As noted before, between the second revision of the Q3 GDP number and its final print, Personal Consumption increased from 2.2% to 3.2% Q/Q,  and ended up contributing 2.21% of the final 4.96% GDP amount, up from 1.51%.

 

So what did Americans supposedly spend so much more on compared to the previous revision released one month ago? Was it cars? Furnishings? Housing and Utilities? Recreational Goods and RVs? Or maybe nondurable goods and financial services?

 

Actually no. The answer, just as we predicted precisely 6 months ago is... well, just see for yourselves.

 

 

In short, two-thirds of the "boost" to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the "polar vortex" crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this "growth dry powder" for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.

And then, here is the full analysis showing the component by component revisions to personal income and spending, which explicitly showed how that in order to boost Q3 revised Q3 GDP to the highest in over a decade, US consumers had to become $140 billion "poorer" in savings. Pardon, revised savings.

Exposing The Deception: How The US Economy "Grew" By $140 Billion As Americans Became Poorer

 

This is simply stunning.

 

Regular readers will recall that last month, at the same time as the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported was a far better than expected 3.9% GDP (since revised to 5.0% on the back of the previously noted Obamacare spending surge), it also released its Personal Spending and Income numbers for the month of October, or rather revised numbers, because as we explained exactly one month ago "Americans Are Suddenly $80 Billion "Poorer"" thanks to (upward) revised spending data and (downward) revised income. What this meant a month ago is that as a result of a plunge in the imputed US savings rate, some $80 billion in personal savings was revised away from the average American household and right into the US economy.

 

After all, something had to grow the US GDP by a massive amount in order to give the Fed the green light it needs to hike rates eventually, just so it can then ease when the global dry powders from all the other central banks is used up.

 

And sure enough, this is how just one month ago, personal income was revised lower...

 

 

... Even as personal spending was revised higher:

 

 

Leading to an $80 billion revision lower in personal saving, and by mathematical identity, a comparable growth in US GDP.

 

 

* * *

Fast forward to today when we find that... absolutely nothing has changed, and in order to boost US GDP some more, the BEA engaged in precisely the same data revision trick!

On the surface, today's Personal Income and Spending data were inline to a little bit better than expected:

  • Personal Income supposedly rose 0.4% in November, up from a 0.3% revised growth in October, and in line with expectations.
  • Personal Spending supposedly also rose, this time by 0.6%, up from an upward revised 0.3%, and just above the 0.5% expected. Of note: real spending on gasoline and other energy goods rose 4.1%. Wait, what? Wasn't spending on energy supposed to drop?

So far so good: nothing abnormal (except for the clearly made up spending data), and in isolation this data would be good, suggesting the US consumer is getting more confident and is spending ever more as the year closes, on expectations of higher paying jobs, stronger economy, etc.

 

And then we looked at the Personal Savings number: it was reported at 4.4% in November, down from 4.6% in October. Which is odd because last month, the October savings rate was disclosed as 5.0%, in turn down from a downward revised 5.6% in September.

 

Wait, could the BEA be engaging in precisely the same deception in November as it did in October.

 

Why yes, Virgina: not only did the US Department of Economic Truth completely fabricate its GDP numbers earlier, but the way it got to said fabrication is by fudging - for the second month in a row - both the entire Personal Income and Personal Spending data series.

 

Behold what the original data looked like in October, in November, when the extensive and already documented data revision took place, and just now, when the December data shows that the BEA once again revised everything just as it had previously.

 

To wit: here is Personal Income, revised substantially lower yet again, for every single datapoint of Q3 and then some, from July until October!

 

 

Sure enough, here is the revision to Personal Outlays: once again, a reduction in income magically meant that US household spent more in retrospect. As the chart below shows, Personal Outlays (Spending) was revised higher from July until October as well. What is most impressive is how the revision shifted the slope of US personal spending from one of Slowdown as reprted in October, to a literal explosion based on the latest data.

 

 

So how was all this spending funded? Simple: Americans "supposedly" dug massively into their savings, and as the following chart shows, Personal Savings have now crashed from what was originally an "unrevised" 5.6% in September, subsequently revised to 5.0% in November and 4.5% currently, and all the way down to 4.4% in November. Incidentally, this is the lowest savings rate since 2013, and the lowest savings rate for the month of November since 2006!

 

 

So what do all these revisions mean numerically? Luckily we can put absolute numbers alongside the savings rates, and as the following chart show, as of September 30, or the end of Q3, when US GDP supposedly soared by 5% annualized we now know that data revisions of personal income and spending alone generated...

 

 

... A whopping $140 billion in GDP!

 

So what does this mean? Well, as we learned earlier US GDP grew in Q3 by a nominal $272 billion to $17.6 trillion. We now know that more than half of this increase came from, drum roll please, data revisions!

 

In other words, US GDP, using pre-revision data, would have been less than 2.5%. But that woul dhardly lead to the euphoric blow-off top rally we have seen today which sent the DJIA for the first time ever above 18,000, which in turn is so critical to boost consumer confidence so Americans will, in real life, do what the BEA hopes they have already done at least on paper, and that is reduce their savings by a whopping 20% at the end of September, or by some $140 billion, to $593 billion in order to spend, spend, spend.

 

And the other irony: as the BEA also reported, what did Americans allegedly spend the bulk of their savings on?

 

Obamacare.

 

 

So in short, today the market is euphoric and hitting all time highs because Americans dug into their savings and spent billions on the "Affordable" Care Act.

 

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the short answer why the US is "growing" when the rest of the world is mired in a triple (or quadruple if one is Japan) recession.

* * *

So, again, we ask our readers, as well as Mr. Rosenberg's paying clients, just what is it that passes for financial analysis these days, be it on a "lunatic fringe" financial blog, or as part of a paid-for newsletter attached to a "wealth manager" whose disclaimer says that "our clients are our partners, through performance-based fees that are earned only when prespecified performance benchmarks for clients’ investments are exceeded", which further adds: "Gluskin Sheff may own, buy, or sell, on behalf of its clients, securities of issuers that may be discussed in or impacted by this report. As a result, readers should be aware that Gluskin Sheff may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Gluskin Sheff portfolio managers may hold different views from those expressed in this report and they are not obligated to follow the investments or strategies recommended by this report."

 

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Sun, 01/04/2015 - 14:51 | 5620951 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Like any other sell side analyst, Rosie is paid to cheer.

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:22 | 5621000 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

When Rosie produces something to better mankind, I'll listen.  Otherwise, and truthfully, I didn't even read the above.  But I know when you're a financial guy, manipulations and market steering are part of your livelihood, so it's a totally biased opinion.

I'm not a perma bear, I'm a realist who is self employed seeing real market failure happening in front of my eyes.  I get dozens of job requests weekly, with ZERO solicitation.  This is not a market, no matter what financial people say.  This is a game causing serious financial repression at the expense of mankind.  Turn a blind eye if you wish and call me a "perma bear", but my first hand experience at the employment level speaks otherwise.

Now maybe if I worked on the 11th floor of a financial corp(se), my opinion may be different.  ;-)

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:24 | 5621036 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

So that was Rosie I saw walking the streets doing the slut walk wearing a short skirt and hitting up on limos on Wall Street one night

What a whore. He's gone full blown insane to get that $$$ from the banksters and can not take a deep breath and realize that there is going to be a problem as the central banks stop injecting liquidity in 2015.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:44 | 5621072 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Rosy has sucked his master's balls so deep down his throat he thinks they are his own

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:21 | 5621148 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Simply stated, Rosenberg has turned into a Rosenbag.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:27 | 5621165 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Oh like he hasn't always been.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:51 | 5621230 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Wrong as a deflationista...and Wrong as an inflationista.
That's what the musty outdated textbooks say : it must be one or the other not both!
BIflation will make all theses clowns look like morons over and over

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:57 | 5621258 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

"Wage price inflation" ?? Wow. Yeah, well; I suppose. I mean it might start raining mice, too; but is it likely ? Uhhm; nah, I don't think so.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:24 | 5621686 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

If he sees "strength all around" why does he then believe rates won't rise in 2015?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 18:16 | 5621479 nailgunnin4you
nailgunnin4you's picture

Stopped reading after the berg in the title. Whatever he did, whatever he said fuck that guy.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 07:27 | 5622927 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

"IS THIS IS WHAT PASSES FOR ANALYSIS?"

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:17 | 5621144 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

This is ENTIRELY about generating more CNBS guest bookings, which has obviously worked. Self-serving career boosterism and nothing more.

How Sharpton shakes down corporate America:

http://tinyurl.com/nvjmslm

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:01 | 5621260 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Tyler's analysis, on the other hand; deserves a !!.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:04 | 5620977 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

TORONTO, Dec. 9, 2014 /CNW/ - Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (the "Company") announced today the appointment of Ann Davis as an independent Director of the Company and Chair of the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Ms. Davis' appointment expands the Company's Board of Directors to nine directors, seven of whom are independent directors.

After a 37-year career at KPMG LLP...

KPMG, omg, lololololol LULZ LULZ LULZ LULZ

i smell a non-GAAP earnings announcement coming on!!! BONUS TIME!!!

KPMG, omg, lololololol LULZ LULZ LULZ LULZ

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 01:39 | 5622591 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

An Accountant on the BOD, how quaint...  Must be for tradition's sake.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:08 | 5620988 eXMachina
eXMachina's picture

Tylers can you please fix the comments section. It is unreadable on a mobile device.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 04:08 | 5622758 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Funny you mention that because on my computer I accidentally hit the "Last Page" link (never done that before) and this comes up as the next to last comment!!

Rosenberg: "Era Of Green Shoots Over"

Good, succinct obit of the Green Shoots period compliments of Rosie's headline points from his morning piece.

Era of the Green Shoots is Over

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 03:24 | 5627020 eXMachina
eXMachina's picture

What's with the down arrows? 8 people don't read zero hedge comments on a mobile I guess.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:09 | 5620991 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Damn, they make this so complicated.

There can be no wage inflation because there is no growth in profits after taxes.  

Where are the dollars for these wage increases supposed to come from?

Have these people ever actually run a real business, where they had to look at the bottom line from the last twelve months and then make budget allocations for the next twelve months?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:26 | 5621045 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

To answer your question:  NO, they have not.  It's painfully obvious.

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:17 | 5621143 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The BLS has it figured out.  People are getting more tips.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:07 | 5621280 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Stated coporate profits are at all-time highs. A manager has to decide, as always, whether to invest in plant or people. With ZIRP, the answer will alwys be "plant" (or buybacks, special dividends, and CEO pay raises). Free money to buy robots and take cost out this quarter or salaries to hire scientists for the next big breakthrough in 10 years? hmm, let's see...

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:12 | 5621656 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Corporate profits after taxes are NOT at all time highs.

Even corporate profits BEFORE taxes are growing at a mere 0.38%.

Do not be fooled by the DOW 30, whose profits are rising at a whopping 2.38%.

Or the S&P500's numbers...

There are many more corporations out there than that.

And things are NOT looking up.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:31 | 5621695 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

You are talking about the small and medium businesses. But they are not of interest. The only thing that is of interest are the Russel 2000 upwards companies.

And these profits are at record highs. So everything is fine and you are from yesterday - not fit for the economy of the bright future, where prosperity is created by share buybacks and financial innovation.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 20:49 | 5621926 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

+1

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 09:44 | 5623150 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The future is so bright,, you got to wear shades....

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:12 | 5620994 jaxville
jaxville's picture

This is what passes for financial professionals.  Please stop posting these kind of stories.  I can't buy any more gold or silver.  This sort of thing creates the urge to get every last dime of cash I have out of the banks and other financial entitiies.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:22 | 5620999 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

"This sort of thing creates the urge to get every last dime of cash I have out of the banks and other financial entitiies."

 

Trust your gut.

And keep stackin' that phyzz!

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:14 | 5620998 starman
starman's picture

"Spending"? You mean charging, leasing, renting, and layaway. 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:15 | 5621004 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Gluskin Sheff is bullish? To the FAZmobile!

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:17 | 5621006 farmboy
farmboy's picture

So mr Rosenberg suddenly took the blue pills after 2012. I hope he put his personal money also were his mouth is, After all he is just a broker what does he know about making money if he is not being paid in commission?

The quality of ZH articles without a doubt is superior to sell side "baffle them with bullshit" analysts like mr Rosenberg. 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:30 | 5621049 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I wonder if it would be possible to look at the redemption rate of his slush fund, I mean hedge fund up to the date of his religious conversion.

If the converts in your cult of personality stop believing sometimes it pays to change the tone of the sermons to staunch the bleeding, err, the leaving of parishioners.

If that doesn't work one can always switch churches, uhm I mean financial firms.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:02 | 5621268 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It sure looks that way; and you don't even have to pay for the newsletter !

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:20 | 5621021 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Another face for that BIG deck of cards I will be carrying..

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:26 | 5621041 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

is that the 10,052 deck ???

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:57 | 5621100 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Be sure that Prince Andrew, the Pedophile of Fuckingham, is included in that deck.

 

At least he could have gotten away with it in Iraq....Like the American Soldiers did.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:20 | 5621314 daveO
daveO's picture

He simply went to the wrong state. One of only 10 in the US. The chick was 17, hardly a kid, but maybe a 'slave'. Epstein got off with just a little more than a year, thanks to his connections in NYC and DC.

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_sexual_consent_in_the_United_Sta...

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:22 | 5621028 booboo
booboo's picture

"So the boyz in the back room were shorting the shit out of what we were pumping, whats it to ya"

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:22 | 5621029 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

No need to turn this into a pissing contest between ZH and David Rosenberg. A year from now we will know for certain who was right, since the economy will either be booming or it will be getting crushed. We will either be sailing happily off into the sunset, or the iceberg conspiracy theory will have become iceberg conspiracy fact. In either case, let's meet back here next year and find out, as I'm sure ZH will publish Rosie's 2016 letter to his clients.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:44 | 5621071 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

The interesting thing is the I don't recall ZH (Tylers) ever producing a story that told people to buy gold or silver.  Third parties have, certainly.  What stands out to me is that ZH (Tylers) have an uncanny ability to predict what TPTB will do as well as to investigate and explain how they did, in fact, do as predicted.

It is quite interesting to consider the potential ramifications.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:02 | 5621111 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Rosenberg is a Buy side analyst now. When he was on sell side with Merrill he was almost alone in calling for a Housing collapse in 2007 and the knock on effects on Banks.

 

Now he has paying clients he must be under insane pressure to deliver median results at a minumum.

 

Ultimately he will be one of many fucked over by central banks but because he won't be alone this time he will be safe. A good career strategy.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:31 | 5621169 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

I'm pretty sure that the buying of gold and silver is implied.  Welcome to Fight Club.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agi8PUmlAKU

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:22 | 5621032 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Moar Credit !

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:34 | 5621171 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Moar debt writeoffs!

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:23 | 5621033 ebear
ebear's picture

Guys like Rosenberg know nothing outside their own self interest.

No doubt the guy switched horses because his clients were leaving.  Simple as that.

I don't care what side of the debate you're on, if you appear on CNBC, you have ZERO credibility in my books.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:44 | 5621076 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

So guys like Schiff and Faber have no credibility with you?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:04 | 5621106 ebear
ebear's picture

A better question would be why do they appear on CNBC?  Same goes for Santelli.  Point being, they are used to create the illusion of impartiallity which is laughable on the face of it.  None of these guys are stupid -  they must know what their role is.  So, the next question (aside from whether you share their views) is why do they do it?   Surely there are better ways to earn a living that don't involve compomising your integrity.

 

<edit>

The word I was looking for was integrity, not credibility, althought the two often go together.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:52 | 5621236 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Obseration: when Rosie and Hugh go Blue Pill in 2014 or before, then that means the bears are shaken out.

I also recently learned Schiff has changed his online in August 2014, things change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mazeqOdJgUI

 

Its hard and takes effort (and someone has to pay the bills and finance) to stand agains the wind of mainstream media.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 22:45 | 5622246 PT
PT's picture

It's the old "markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent" thing.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 22:47 | 5622255 PT
PT's picture

Plus it keeps going on because "I need you to buy more CDSs so I can sell more CDOs".

(errr, hit the edge of my knowledge just there, did I get it right?)

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:23 | 5621035 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

is he Hugh Hendry's twin brother ??

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:33 | 5621172 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Hugh and Rosie will learn the Blue Pill expiration date is in 2015.

Until then the Steaks should taste good.

 

Should be an interesting re-animation when the Blue pill wears off.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:24 | 5621037 max2205
max2205's picture

Bearish with a long net position 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:53 | 5621094 new game
new game's picture

bearish and in hibernation, ha...

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:25 | 5621039 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Easy to be bullish with OPM.Sorry OPC(currency).

Our Monopoly bank,the FedRes, can take it all whenever they want.

Its their currency,and we are only allowed to play with it upon their whim.

Don't lose sight of that when playing.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:25 | 5621040 farmboy
farmboy's picture

Anyhow look at the website of Gluskin Sheff. Nothing but hot air and empty suits but despite "superior" this and that no performance numbers. Ain't that funny ?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:31 | 5621053 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Herd mentality does strange things to people - even money manager 'professionals'.   Funny though, that same 'herd mentality' trap is what they so piously advise that you avoid falling into, whilst you hand them over your $savings.   But then, some herds are more equal than others...

 

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:34 | 5621057 Katastrofenhausse
Katastrofenhausse's picture

On the few occasions when I actually turn on CNBS, I'm reminded of this recent story

Excrement Truck Explodes in Guangxi province Hechi city , Nearby Pedestrians Covered 

http://www.chinasmack.com/2014/pictures/excrement-tanker-explodes-covering-everyone-in-human-waste.html

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:02 | 5621108 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

When the shit hits the fan...?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:14 | 5621137 new game
new game's picture

that is when bears short the shit out of the shit wagon called the markets. caveat:good luck getting your money to the safe side; ie physical assets,ha...

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:33 | 5621058 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

I'm a sick and tired of that "gloom and doom" label. I am not a nutcase, nor am I a perma-bear by trade or profession. I am merely someone who tries to think for himself. I am a mentally stable individual and I am not, repeat NOT paranoid. I am not on any meds, I take nothing, no doctor is precribing me anything. I work and I raise a family together with my partner, who also works. It's just that in 2008 the MSM suddenly told me we were mere hours away from total global economic collapse. In my country our main national bank collapsed and was taken over by a foreign bank in the span of one weekend, that's right, our so-called financial crown jewel was gone in two days' time. Another national bank is now a zombie and will likely go down in the coming years, leaving the paxpayer with an impossible additional debt burden. We are fucked, I repeat, we are fucked, our current financial-monetary model is doomed and there is no plan B. The math is there to prove it unequivocally. What is happening in Japan, is sheer madness. Greece has been saved many times over by the EU and yet it keeps facing an existential crisis, the boogeyman simply won't go away. One look at the evolution of the debt curve of the US tells you all you need to know about the unsustainability of the current system. Need I go on? 

But they have the audacity to call us perma-bears who are irreparably stuck in this gloom mode? 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:49 | 5621087 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

You have failed to learn the most important lesson:  Ignorance is strength.

All this knowing and thinking for yourself will only keep you up at night.  It is better to let the professionals manage everything so you can diddle your eyesight to nothing with your favorite iCrap.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:16 | 5621141 new game
new game's picture

are you describing my wife? only worry she has is listening to my gloom and doom. ha, but she knows the day is coming...

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:40 | 5621193 Ludwig Von
Ludwig Von's picture

Fortis en Dexia ?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:47 | 5621215 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

Van de eerste keer juist. Een bank vooruit (bij wijze van spreken dan).

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 09:47 | 5623147 GCT
GCT's picture

+100 if I could Highly.  Doom and gloom is just another label to stop anyone from doing any thinking and research.  Many people have examined the GDP and found most of it is indeed people paying for fricking healthcare.  .80% is also defense spending.  I do not think anything is going to crash and burn.  All you have to do is look at Japan and this charade will go on for decades.  That does not mean it is good.  I feel sorry for my children and grand children who will be fucked with all of this spending.

I look at how this Congress just passed the spending bill and oh wait put all of us taxpayers on the hook for banks derivatives.  The fucking media could care less and our government could care less about us.  More and more surveillance, promoting your neighbors to turn you in for shit, trying to get your children to now turn you into law enforcement for shit, and well you get the drift.  I am very tired of the media and this administration trying to make me out to be a criminal because I am successful and did the right thing and saved and made wise investments.  I am tired of local government turning our police forces into a para military units complete with armored vehicles.  Our rights are being taken away all in the name of your boogeyman the terrorists and people cheer the bastards.

Doom and Gloom please it is the reality we face.  You would be a fool to not have invested in this run up in the markets.  But the markets are not the economy and never will be.  Most people cannot afford a home now so we will again have the taxpayers foot the down payment because they people cannot afford it and then await for the next big crash.  The US government is doing its best to take away you right to bear arms because it knows if this fucker crashes big time they will be hunted for it.  I feel good knowing I do not live in a large metropolitan area as it will get deadly quick. 

Some of these people really need to get out more and talk to real people that do not have alot to spend because of these new so-called govt programs screwing them.  Our insurance just went from 150 per pay period to over 300 per pay period.  I am sure that is really going to help the GDP! 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:38 | 5621060 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Dear Mr. Rosenberg,

How does it feel to be slapped like the bitch you are? 

Sincerely,

All of us

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:25 | 5621156 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

nice touch.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:36 | 5621061 Mcat
Mcat's picture

Rosenberg figured it our. It pays to be bullish and it pays to remain so when you are advising clients and collecting fees. He makes millions from his daily newletter. He won't talk about the end result because it is about making money today. I don't think you will see any warnings from him until after the fact.

Congrats to Rosie, he has made more money in the past six year than he has the past 25 combined. Of course I jest but you get the point.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:00 | 5621618 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

What amazes me is the fact that people pay for advice from experts who usually proven wrong. Or in the case of Goldman Sucks actively involved in stacking the market.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:49 | 5621081 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I'm glad I chose a profession that allowed me to make money and keep my principles.

Claiming someone is "a bear" without defining an outlook is stupid. It's not as if everyone here claims that the sky will fall every following day. My bearishness has been around for a while, but it's always been over a 5-10 year outlook. Most people aren't traders and aren't looking to flip strategies every other month like Rosenberg.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:50 | 5621088 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

About the only jobs left that meet your criteria are hookers and drug dealers.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:53 | 5621092 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I'm a hooker.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 15:54 | 5621097 delivered
delivered's picture

We've truly gone full retard in this country when TPTB can count a tax increase (i.e., mandatory healthcare premiums) as an increase in GDP. And as Tugg Speedman learned in the movie Tropic Thunder, you never go full retard. 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:02 | 5621110 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

As public eviscerations go this is about the best I have ever seen, and well deserved. 

 

Militant truth telling at its best.

 

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:20 | 5621149 sagelike
sagelike's picture

Oh my, a tad defensive aren't we. How dare anyone challenge ZHs doom and gloom take on everything!

The truth is, ZH is the mainstream media for the doom and gloom crowd - no good news All The Time and any good news must be the result of some evil conspiracy.

ZH would lose it audience if they actually reported anything with any level of objectivity so - like Fox News - it gives its readers what they want and expect - bad news all the time and conspiracies. 

To be fair, I come to this site to balance out the 'It's all good' mainstream media and I get some good insight but a lot of stuff on ZH is also pure rubbish.

 

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:25 | 5621158 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

You're fucking joking.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:26 | 5621161 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

He likes good news better than bad news.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:40 | 5621182 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Good !

Whatever floats the boat.

Following both, and many, sides is always the best way to learn about what's happening.

We are able to do this at very low cost now.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:20 | 5621326 KingTut
KingTut's picture

There is defineitely a negative bias to the ZH news flow.  However, I find most ZH authors still base their arguments on the government's happy juice: inflation is 1.5%, the GDP grew (pick a number > 0) and unemployment is sub 10%.  Whereas, if you look at the hard-to-argue-with  shadowstats, we are actually experincing >6% inflation, which changes the GDP deflator so that GDP is SHRINKING by several percent, and unempolyment is OVER 20%.  That just feel more right to me.

I'm not saying shadowstats are THE correct numbers, after all they used to be the gov stats we loved in the 1980's.  But surely they have to operate as a secondary pole to your thinking.  Given that pull to the negative, no wonder ZH has a neative bias, because that's where the truth is.

I don't BELIEVE anything I read anywhere. I read as much as I can from different points of view and only arrive at my opinion when I can logically justify it from everything I've abosrbed. Our entire global financial system is based on Keynesian economics, and I have come to understand that his economics are 100% wrong. Pursuing 100% wrong solutions can lead to only one outcome: total failure of the global financial system.  I'd like to hope our 'leaders' come to their senses before that happens, but I don't see any evidence they will ever figure it out.

How the hell did we end up with a theory of economics that is 100% wrong!?  Because it's the theory that makes bankers richest and politicians the most powerful.  Any other theory didn't / wouldn't stand a chance.  I'm in my 60's and my only goal is to avoid ruin for a few decades.  Whether humanity can survive long term, when it so easily falls prey to perverse mythic realities is anybody's guess.  Too many weapons not enough truth.

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:21 | 5621152 Dadburnitpa
Dadburnitpa's picture

Oh, come on. He's just another whore with a tummy full o' cum.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:34 | 5621170 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Wonder if Rosenberg is also best pal with Jeffrey Epstein?...

Donald Trump, Billy "Boy" Clinton, Prince Andrew, and Tony Blair all love it when they go to his party!  Just like what Eliott Abrams did for Bush Sr. all those years ago with the "stick" coming in the form of pictures at the "Carousel Motel" in Houston!  Wonder what prompted MSNBC to report that story and then "pull it" (the story I mean) just like a Larry Silverstein taking down Building 7?!!!

Blackmail is such fun when the pimp walks away scot free and makes free copies available to his guests as insurance for their continued patonage to the tribe's interests!

"So, Epstein and Maxwell get underage girls for top political figures, including a British Prime Minister, make videos of them, and presto, these politicians become fanatical defenders of Israel's policies!  

Normally I don't spend a lot of time on tawdry sex scandals, and I have no illusions these underage girls did not know what they were involved with, but the public needs to see the "Special Relationship" with Israel on full display!"...   -Mike Rivero WhatReallyHappened.com

 

http://aanirfan.blogspot.ca/2015/01/tony-blair-linked-to-teen-sex-slave....

 

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 18:57 | 5621602 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

Will be interesting to see whether TPTB can put a cap on this as successfully as Papa Bush did with all of his crimes.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:55 | 5621196 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

This little piece by Stockman

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/why-commodity-prices-are-cliff-div...

(open in new window or link will go straight to comments).

should be read by Mr Rosenberg.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:53 | 5621772 LibertarianMenace
LibertarianMenace's picture

When China sneezes, the world gets ebola.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:53 | 5621208 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

"David Rosenberg, formerly of bailed-out Merrill Lynch and currently at Gluskin Sheff, who famously flip-flopped from being a self-described permabear to uber-bull last summer for the one reason that has yet to manifest itself in any way, shape or form..."

Perhaps the real reason David flpped, and avoided major flopping, can be explained by this quote.

 

"When Jews get successful they will help their people"

Donald Sterling

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:54 | 5621243 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture
Journeying Boldly Into New Territory (April 10th, 1998): http://investmentwatchblog.com/journeying-boldly-into-new-territory-april-10th-1998/
Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:06 | 5621279 Benign
Benign's picture

Rosy could have done it with some class like Hugh Hendry who just comes out and said we live in an artificial world, and Reality bites.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:09 | 5621292 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

stock market commentators/managers of funds should be wary of falling into the trap of dogma as is the case with "back fitting" and adulterating facts to form the basis for religion.

frustrated persecution generally follows such backward looking thinking

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 17:12 | 5621304 Rigger
Rigger's picture

Total ownage by the Tyler's... I like how bothered Rosie and others of his ilk get when eviscerated by ZH... Come on, this blog is a pretty small fish in the sea of finance, yet they get their back up and go full retard trying to defend themselves.

 

Brings a tear to my eye, I swear... Keep up the good analysis and good work ZH.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 22:27 | 5622203 Pareto
Pareto's picture

They can't emotionally handle it when ZH handily points out their intellectual incompetence - which is getting easier to do by the day!  Its like they are all becoming pissy little Krugmans.  Same whine, same inability to logically discuss their positions without resorting to school yard name calling and bullying.  Its getting easier and easier to knock these fuckers off their pedestal.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 18:03 | 5621443 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

ZH, if you continue to piss off powerful people watch out for nail guns, stay away from high buildings, 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 18:19 | 5621493 Marco
Marco's picture

The US has intentionally pumped up bubbles in it's stock market for decades, what else is new. Have to get some of the dollars from the trade deficit back in the country somehow.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 20:14 | 5621827 LibertarianMenace
LibertarianMenace's picture

Just a quibble, but Wall Street goes to the moon because our marks, sorry, our trading partners, suddenly realize they're sitting on this pile of FRN's with nowhere else to go. Kind of Commodore Decker like.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 18:47 | 5621575 Baldrick
Baldrick's picture

Tyler I FUCKING LOVE you!

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 18:54 | 5621577 Just Take It All
Just Take It All's picture

"To these fanatics, if the market rallies, it is due to some unholy alliance somewhere, and if the market dives, it is a case of good triumphing over evil."

If there is any "good" whatsoever in humans, it most likely resides in rationality, almost by definition.  And at these prices in stocks, rationality is clearly not winning.  And of the many, many evils of the human species, greed is certainly a worthy candidate as an "evil".

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:17 | 5621670 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

the fed isn't going to raise interest rates

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 19:59 | 5621782 wstrub
wstrub's picture

So far up the FEDS ass he can see Jamie's feet.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 20:15 | 5621829 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

Rosenberg has sold out his convictions long ago, A LAMPOST IS ADDED !

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 23:47 | 5622428 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

Mr. Rosenberg, please leave the ad hominem and the tinfoil hat at home.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 06:00 | 5622851 Magooo
Magooo's picture

That is fucking precious!

 

I guess he thinks Hugh Hendry is an idiot because he readily admits that the markets make absolutely no sense but you might as well go along for the ride because the central banks will continue to pump trillions into inflating them.

 

I wonder - what does this fat fucking pig think is going on in the markets?  Does he think this is something other than an illusion?

 

And BTW ever time I see this bloated piece of shit I can't help wondering if he's just spent a heavy weekend in the Four Seasons with Cramer snorting massive lines of coke, guzzling scotch, and double teaming a filthy whore. 

 

He really looks the ideal candidate for a heart attack

 

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 06:30 | 5622868 Magooo
Magooo's picture

FYI:  Research@gluskinsheff.com

 

You can reach those clowns on that email

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!