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Jeff Gundlach: "If Oil Drops To $40 The Geopolitical Consequences Could Be Terrifying"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a recent interview with FuW, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach explained his concerns about the oil market not being "unequivocally good" for everyone...

Question: The crash in the oil market is already causing jitters in the financial markets around the globe. What is your take on that?

 

Gundlach: Oil is incredibly important right now. If oil falls to around $40 a barrel then I think the yield on ten year treasury note is going to 1%. I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying.

What would that mean for stocks?

Gundlach is right historically...

Large and rapid rises and falls in the price of crude oil have correlated oddly strongly with major geopolitical and economic crisis across the globe. Whether driven by problems for oil exporters or oil importers, the 'difference this time' is that, thanks to central bank largesse, money flows faster than ever and everything is more tightly coupled with that flow.

 

 

So is the 45% YoY drop in oil prices about to 'cause' contagion risk concerns for the world?

*  * *

Of course Gundlach is not alone in this rational concern...

"In its November 14, 2014 Daily Observations ("The Implications of $75 Oil for the US Economy"), the highly respected hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, LP confirmed that lower oil prices will have a negative impact on the economy.

 

After an initial transitory positive impact on GDP, Bridgewater explains that lower oil investment and production will lead to a drag on real growth of 0.5% of GDP.

 

The firm noted that over the past few years, oil production and investment have been adding about 0.5% to nominal GDP growth but that if oil

levels out at $75 per barrel, this would shift to something like -0.7% over the next year, creating a material hit to income growth of 1-1.5%."

 

-- Mike Lewitt, The Credit Strategist

Source: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:34 | 5624597 Bryan
Bryan's picture

I hear ya.  Lots of Chicken Littles everywhere and for a long time now.  Personally, I think it's coming down soon (within 10 years or so?) but what do I know?  Just my opinion:  we have been encouraging consumption with debt for a while now, and many people got rich by getting the sheep to spend money.  Much of the money came from debt, and much came from wages - well, almost ALL of it came from wages only because debt is 'future wages.'  Wages must rise and keep up so the debt slaves can make minimum payments and run up more debt.  At some point, wages can't keep up and we get a collapse of debt defaults.  Once the sheep can't borrow any future income any more, those who are getting rich from them go find greener pastures... I'm not sure what that is yet.  Either that, or they go bankrupt.  And at some point, the government will finally say "sorry, we can't bail you out this time."

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:02 | 5623741 -.-
-.-'s picture

WOARLD WOAR 3

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:02 | 5623744 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

The resolve of mankind is tested in the seventh year.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:58 | 5624032 Shawnee
Shawnee's picture

in response to stoploss, that seventh year is a shemitah year, as was 2001, 2008 and now 2015.  so you can be sure september will see Huge losses. I'm short 100%.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:02 | 5623745 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

So they liked the supply-demand curve when the demand increased x% and the price incresased exponentially.

And they hate it on the downside.

Imagine that. 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:07 | 5623772 clawsthatscratch
clawsthatscratch's picture

Fuck them!! I am enjoying the lower prices.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:02 | 5624054 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Who is they?  

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:02 | 5623748 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Gundlach is a smart man....when it comes to bonds. 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:30 | 5623883 NoVa
NoVa's picture

We could see the 10yr reach 180 just like May 2013.  Could go lower in yield to reach an all-time generational low.  

Oil is a currency commodity and huge amounts of capital trade it.  I don't know the support/resistance levels of oil.  But if the 10yr closes below 2.06%, then next stop is 1.90 % in yield.

 

long TLT, SPXU, EPV

NoVa

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5623954 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

"I don't know the support/resistance levels of oil"

I can tell you that if you tell me how GS is positioned.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:54 | 5624020 NoVa
NoVa's picture

I can tell you GS is a squid. 

I did some consulting work for one of their equity investments which was in the oil pipeline business back in 2008, before oil plunged the last time.  They knew exactly what they were doing - bought private companies on the cheap, hire guys like me to ready them for a S-1, then dump (er sell) the repositioned firms.

However - oil plunged BEFORE they could sell their oil cos & GS lost money  - so, maybe GS is not in total control as ZH'ers conspirerize.

 

Nova

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:01 | 5624058 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

There's never, ever any such thing as control (as ALL actions have unintended consequences). What there is though, is massive influence on a scale that cannot be subdued.

If you're going to burn down the world to prevent competition, activation energy is your friend. While you may occasionally lose some assets to a fire of your own fueling, you'll be okay as long as you can still kill the competition first.

Makes the GS story about breaking up JPM all the more interesting, no?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:12 | 5624131 NoVa
NoVa's picture

agree with ya.

GS probably got out of the investments a year or so ago when oil was $110 ish and shale / tar sands were going full tilt.  the companies they bought supplied pipe to tar (Calgary) and shale (WVA PA) fields.  I spent 7 months in Calgary - great city.

Nova

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 16:54 | 5625242 g speed
g speed's picture

many rigs and lots of pipe on the market now according to Trade Quip--

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:46 | 5623955 Salah
Salah's picture

Neptune in Pisces: OIL! OIL! OIL!....FOUND EVERYWHERE, BY EVERYBODY (UNTIL 2026)

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:46 | 5623968 usednabused
usednabused's picture

Smart man? I'd say he's a common whore

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:04 | 5623750 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

How come airfares havent dropped?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:09 | 5623780 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Airlines are still trying to move into the black since air travel began....they are just trying to make a few bucks first...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 05:55 | 5627111 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

....cheap flights to West Africa...Cheers!!

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:22 | 5623854 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

Hedged out six months to a year. Also, only four main carriers domestically. Whats the incentive to drop prices when your competition dosent?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:22 | 5623861 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Competition...... Lol, that's a good one.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:05 | 5624066 noben
noben's picture

How do you spell 'Oligopoly'?

What GS said about JPM applies to all sorts of US industries, including the airlines.  Break them into a thousands little pieces, allow for price discovery and burning of deadwood, and you'll see a "Recovery you can believe on". 

Where's a useful Executive Order when you need one?  Obozo? [crickets]

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5623856 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

1) as most tickets are sold 30-60 days out, i'm sure a good amount of fuel is hedged/prepurchased. oil has just cratered over the past 2 months, i'm sure you see you'll see it in fares in the next month or two, but not overly quick because 2) like gas stations, they are quick to rise prices, but slow to lower prices..maybe that buys another month or so.  if oil stays lower, might see some great fares in late winter!

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:48 | 5624940 Conax
Conax's picture

Great fares for our traveling pleasure!

If I wanted an anal probe I would flag down a ufo.  Frankly I'm surprised so many still fly anywhere except on business they can't transact over the interwebz.  One broccoli fart and you're under ARREST for disturbing the precious widdle flight crews.

Strange forces are stuffing jets into the Pacific without warning, radiation levels are going higher and higher, no s m o k i n g, no pen knives and a bunch of ugmo stewardesses, some of which are fudge packers.

What's not to like?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 03:16 | 5627017 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

All of the 4 airline stewardesses look like Edith from All In The Family.

Disgusting.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:51 | 5623995 moonman
moonman's picture

Chuck Schumer is on it, no worries

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:52 | 5624002 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I have a relative involved with fuel purchases for a major shipping company. They hedge out a long way, 6 months plus to protect against a huge price increase. It will take a while for the savings to make it to big companies like this.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:03 | 5624070 wrs1
wrs1's picture

There is no futures market for airline seats, if there were, airfares would be a lot lower by now.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:28 | 5624206 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Because airplanes are still full.  Would you like the government to force them to lower prices, Comrade?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 17:51 | 5625463 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Although I didn't DV you, full airplanes may mean the opposite of what you think. 

Airplanes are full when the economy is contracting, because the airlines change equipment to reflect expected load.  About three times in the last six to eight months UAL has swapped out a 777 for a smaller, single-aisle plane at the 'last minute' (i.e. between the time I made my reservation and my departure date).

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:07 | 5623751 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'If oil goes to $40'.....wait wasn't this all started to hurt Putin? Just ask Ogolfer, GS and JPM where they set the price.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:15 | 5623814 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Don't forget to mention the world's most important banking CEO, Yellen, she wants credit too.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:51 | 5623999 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

What if you wanted to shift the blame for the oncoming economic collapse?  Wouldn't you start pointing fingers at red herrings before the masses were able to connect the dots?

Getting the blame out there early, even if it is not the truth, has always been a political objective.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:03 | 5623752 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

At least they have a new polar vortex to b blame the collapse in GDP on. I was afraid that it might not snow in winter this year.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:14 | 5623804 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Check out this awesome interactive weather map!

http://earth.nullschool.net

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5623855 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's pretty cool, thanks.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:37 | 5623912 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Yeah, I've been watching this site since it was posted here last night. We're getting hit hard by Westerly winds and the temperature hasn't really started to drop yet here in the Peoples Republic of Maryland. The only drawback to watching the wind graphics is that it makes you feel even colder. Time to split more wood and stack it next to the wood stove. That always warms me up.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:05 | 5623768 Be_Optimistic
Be_Optimistic's picture

Don't fear. Our Lord and savior Ms Yellen will save us.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:06 | 5623773 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

She's busy baking cookies right now.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5623864 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Mr Yellen is having his wife Mrs Draghi do it, she's better at baking anyway.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:08 | 5623775 basho
basho's picture

"The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying. "

well that's blunt.

how about 20$?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:16 | 5623815 BadDog
BadDog's picture

$20 oil would do wonders as the printers print, gold soars and the mining sector costs drop.  Don't fear the reaper.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:52 | 5624012 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

$10 are coming. Face it.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:28 | 5624212 wrs1
wrs1's picture

$10 silver and $250 gold will be here before that.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:18 | 5624496 Pareto
Pareto's picture

This assertion is less intelligent than your last post above! - I didn't think that was possible.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:09 | 5623783 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Lots of market analysts are starting to sound really scared. Good.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:14 | 5623803 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I think the new term is Market Misanalysts...

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:10 | 5623786 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Just discussing with a client this morning about this exact thing - where in his industry - now prices offered for like services provided are coming down - quickly - as are "asking" prices.  This stands to reason and should be everything we might expect and want.  As he remarked - "I always thought there was somehting wrong with kids getting out of university making $120K (and not accepting anything less) - that which took me my whole life to earn and I am still not there."

He will get by - he can afford to move his operations $20/hr, and has the experience to rejig things to be even more competititive than that.

 

This is what its all about - movements in price, improvements in services and products provided.

Gotta love it.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:12 | 5624130 j0nx
j0nx's picture

I aint seeing shit for lower prices myself on anything. Gonna take a long while of low oil before that happens. At least 6-12 straight months of oil price declines before it transforms into deflation in the general economy. Nobody is too convinced so far that this isn't just some type of temporary speed bump.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:17 | 5624488 Pareto
Pareto's picture

its coming J0nx.  assets will reprice first - followed by soft input costs.  but, its coming.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:47 | 5624932 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Doubt it. Like to be wrong but doubt that I am. We will see.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 18:12 | 5625546 Pareto
Pareto's picture

I agree with you in some respects - I find it hard to believe - which is why I think it will happen, because as it will happen, nobody (like ourselves) will believe it is possible.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:09 | 5623787 KenShabby
KenShabby's picture

The fact of the matter is this whole shitty mess is man made. What's made by man can be undone by man. Fuck the system!

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:10 | 5623789 falak pema
falak pema's picture

terrifying for whom? 

The US financial Oligarchy probably; and Putin.

Putin is right; now the US Oligarchs and Putin have convergent financial interests that Saud has undermined.

When cronies fall out... you don't know who will first shout to the other : THIEF ! 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:10 | 5623790 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Crude has just dropped $20 in 30 trading days: Can you say $40 oil and Jan 23rd in one sentence?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:11 | 5623793 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

So we get a reset. You just get new politicians and new bankers to bow down to. Then they send us serfs to war. So who really suffers?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:11 | 5623795 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Yeah, I'm terrified of paying $1.25/gallon at the pump. [/SARCASM]

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:17 | 5623818 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I remember filling the tank and getting change from a $20!

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:56 | 5624028 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

I remember filling up for under $2.50. That would mark a great depression in today's dollars.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:30 | 5624221 Daddio7
Daddio7's picture

HA! I remember filling the 18 gal tank on my 68 Impala for $5 and geting change back.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:57 | 5624704 MarkAntony
MarkAntony's picture

I remember going to my local Jewel grocery store with a $100 and coming out with a cart full of food - last night the wife spent $100 for 2 loosely filled plastic shopping bags...   How's that for cheap fucking oil???

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:19 | 5623832 wrs1
wrs1's picture

hope you like all that gold you bought dropping to $500/oz.  Notice how it can't get through $1200?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:58 | 5624031 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I'll love it. It will bring my average cost/ounce way down when I am buying 2 ounces and a bar of silver for what an ounce goes for nowadays. This recent drop in price does nothing to change a world awash in debt and controlled by central banks who only know how to print moar money to solve the problems their manipulations caused.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:07 | 5624090 Funny Money
Funny Money's picture

Then I can buy it twice as fast!

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:20 | 5624171 j0nx
j0nx's picture

$500 an ounce plus $150 spot fee. Just like silver is $16 and a $6 spot fee. 30% spot fee? Seriously? Fuck that noise.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:51 | 5624472 KashNCarry
KashNCarry's picture

It's early yet, 1:11 pm EST Gold is at 1201.11 So much for your call...

Now 1:51 pm EST Gold @ 1203.57

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 20:27 | 5625970 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I want $20.67 Gold.

 

I have quite a few projects on the back burner just waiting for a precipitous Gold Price decline.

 

I have bought Gold at $255. I have bought Gold at $400. I have bought at $700. I have been buying it for years. I also have been USING IT.

 

But that is what you do not get.

 

I just cannot take you seriously. Whom wants to buy at elevated prices? Whom wants to sell at depressed prices?

 

One purchases into declines and sells into advances. Buy low sell high?

 

But you seem to believe that people here will sell into declines?

 

That is only for fools.

 

That is just a receipe for realizing capital losses.

 

And at this point I believe that you are just trolling.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:11 | 5624121 Vylahkinnen
Vylahkinnen's picture

Motherfucking Lord of the Green Beevers! You should pay the same as everyone else in Europe. They should roll in a goddamn tax in your country. To pay all these poor bastard Oil drillers. $1.25 per gallon - just Crazyland over there.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 18:29 | 5625597 Vylahkinnen
Vylahkinnen's picture

Oh come on! You cannot seriously downvote me! Be a little bit more sympathetic to your common European Utopianist.

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 13:45 | 5633263 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

Or, pay $4 at the pump and oil is still $20. Youre just picking up the bill for thier losses.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:13 | 5623796 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

These guys are flipping out no matter what happens.  Too high they short and flip out when it keeps going up.  Too low they go long and flip out when it keeps dropping.  Then they make up some stuff to explain why everyone should flip out.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 18:35 | 5625613 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

long term cocaine use has that effect

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:13 | 5623797 Madcow
Madcow's picture

This is a win win win for the US.

As the USD goes to 90 ... 100 ... 120 ... bankruptcies here and abroad will sky-rocket. 

The "TBTF" US banks can then run around the globe foreclosing on and confiscating assets (previously) owned not only by Americans - but also the assets formerly owned by foreign citizens and foreign governemnts.

The US military may have to assist the bankers in seizing all the private property in Venezuela, Brazil, Russia, and "Europe."

I wish i were an international bankruptcy lawyer !! 

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:16 | 5623813 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"The US military may have to assist the bankers in seizing all the private property in Venezuela, Brazil, Russia, and "Europe."---

Is this the same U.S. military who have seen their benefits and incomes screwed over by the uselees fucking bankers and their puppets in D.C.?

Yeah, good luck with that.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:22 | 5623859 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

Before the US military heroes leave for Russia, remind them to kiss their families goodby since they will never see them again.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:01 | 5624050 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

They would have to orchestrate one hell of a false flag to convince enough of them to do that.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 02:06 | 5626955 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

even those who are gung ho for war wouldnt be caught dead at their local Army Recruiting Center....

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:56 | 5624352 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Madcow - I appreciate your gallows humor.

 

Apparently some on here don't see it :)

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:14 | 5623800 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The drop in oil prices is going to leave many a banks trading desks getting margin calls.  The question is, as per trading, which banks are the ones long?  Because those are the ones to short....

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:17 | 5623816 wrs1
wrs1's picture

How is that if no one is long oil anymore?  

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:21 | 5623838 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Yes they could have been stopped out and will show major losses on their Q1 2015 statement.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:18 | 5624153 wrs1
wrs1's picture

better hope it's not your bank then since their losses are now yours, bail-ins are the law now

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:25 | 5624200 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

I'm long snake oil.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:22 | 5623851 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Most ' at risk ' are WFC and C   ..... per Barrons

             http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/12/18/wells-fargo-citigroup-most-at-risk-from-lower-oil/

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:16 | 5623812 Satan
Satan's picture

Oil producing countries have had ample time to diversify while the going was good...all eggs one basket...fuck 'em.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:18 | 5623817 wrs1
wrs1's picture

How diversified are you?   Got five jobs?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:55 | 5624021 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

One job...

Many many transferable job skills.

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:18 | 5624161 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Just hope they transfer to someone that wants to pay you, skills mean nothing without demand for them.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 20:39 | 5626005 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Hope......got nothing to do with it.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:19 | 5623827 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Lest you forget who was buying the majority of the gold for the last 10 years.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-15/why-russia-and-china-are-buying...

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:53 | 5624015 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

This is what happens when there is a serious case of groupthink, and the only opinions you allow are those that are of the group.

Anyone who bought a  Nissan Leaf could see this day coming....

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:18 | 5623820 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Do we know who that person or business was that bought oil at the very peak back in July 2008?

I think we should interview them and see how they feel now.  

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:26 | 5623873 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Kind of like the people here who were buying silver at $50 and gold at $1900 and who have been buying it all the way down.   Silver is the real joke though, it's just been left for dead no matter how much gets bought and how little is produced.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:47 | 5623975 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Nothing like that at all.  And if you understood real v. nominal values, you would retract that statement.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:22 | 5624178 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Real is what you get when you sell, nominal is what you pay.  The people here believe in nominal prices and keep paying too much for something that could have been had for $5 not that long ago.  

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:14 | 5624480 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Real is what you get when you sell, nominal is what you pay = Huge Fail, and an answer I might see on an econ 101 exam from a student that never attended the class.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:21 | 5624518 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Economics has nothing to do with reality and actually making money or doing business.  That is why you fail to understand what I just told you.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:33 | 5624588 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

holy jesus... you are annoying the fuck out of everyone.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:37 | 5624611 Pareto
Pareto's picture

I do business every day fuck stick.  It is you who doesn't know what the fuck they are talking about.  And because you have been wrong on every post - doesn't by some miracle make you right.  Sorry.  It just doesn't.  The nominal price of gold has nothing to do with buy/sell/ fuck whatever.  Its the most retarded thing anybody has ever said on this site EVER.

$10 silver/$250 gold = $50 silver/$2,000 gold - full fucking stop.  PMs are measured in quantity, not price, because price is a MONETARY phenomenon demarcated by the level of stewarship of the fiat - more or less.  The difference between those two states of the world is only this: which world would you rather live in: 10/250, or 50/2000.  thats it!  thats all there is to it.  Its that simple.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:53 | 5624964 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Wow, name calling is the best you can do as a retort?  You still don't know the difference between nominal and real though.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 16:57 | 5625258 Conax
Conax's picture

Heavens, Lovey, a Yale Man!

Here's reality- if every molecule of silver were removed from that laptop you have before you, it would be a fine day here on the hedge.

You don't deserve to benefit from our shiny miracle metal, you bounder, you cad!

 

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:18 | 5624806 Nestor Makhno
Nestor Makhno's picture

You need to learn the difference between micro and macro, this may help.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS12p0Zqlt0

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:54 | 5624972 wrs1
wrs1's picture

micro is small, macro is large, economics is meaningless and stupid.  I studied engineering and practiced for 30 years.  There were econ grad students trying to learn system theory in my EE380k grad class, they had no clue an they still don't.  

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:29 | 5624209 Sweet Cheeks
Sweet Cheeks's picture

Shale & regular oil companies bought insurance called derivatives to the tune of $300 TRILLION to hedge their bets on the decline in oil prices. Guess which 5 NY banks have to pay off those policies? Guess who is going to cover the NY banks? Ans.- American taxpayers - courtesy of the CRomnibus bill.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:32 | 5624228 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Actually it will be depositors in those banks who get haircuts on their accounts.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:00 | 5624699 sschu
sschu's picture

This is the real question, who is on the hook for covering the bad debts (bonds and derivatives) that will emerge from the price decline in oil.  It would be surprising if the big banks had not off loaded this exposure to their "clients" somehow.  JPM and GS will come out of this smelling like a rose .... or they will be dead.  :-)   

 

Question for the real finance guys: how does an outsider like me find out who owns the real junk?

sschu

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:19 | 5623825 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

At $50 it's cool at $40 it's a geopolitical disaster, what drivel!

Only problem for any country is if you are a non - producer when the producers decide to cater for domestic consumption only until the filth like Goldman QUIT their Markit shenanigans.

Leave your Crude and Gas reserves in the ground Russia or sell for GOLD.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:27 | 5623876 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Can't leave them in the ground, you have to produce them to pay back the investment in drilling the wells.  The oil doesn't come up for free and drilling wells isn't cheap, anywhere.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:19 | 5624165 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

@ wrs1

ok smart ass so you can make money on something that doesn't exist but not on real assets at a future date. CLOWN

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:31 | 5624222 wrs1
wrs1's picture

You don't own any oil in the ground do you?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:14 | 5624477 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

You getting paid by the hour or comment? Still beats the usual Porn sites you troll i expect.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:20 | 5624507 wrs1
wrs1's picture

LOL!  I get paid by the barrel and mcf.  Unfortunately my pay is going down right now and you folks are all cheering it.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 15:23 | 5624833 Nestor Makhno
Nestor Makhno's picture

'You know, I used to think it was awful that life was so unfair. Then I thought, wouldn't it be much worse if life were fair, and all the terrible things that happen to us come because we actually deserve them? So, now I take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe.'

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:19 | 5623830 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

Why no discussion in media of $40-50 SPECULATION IN OIL PRICE?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:19 | 5623837 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

"... if oil levels out at $75 per barrel, this would shift to something like -0.7% over the next year, creating a material hit to income growth of 1-1.5%"

 

A material hit to who's income growth?  Certainly not working people who have no income growth.  Poor babies, they won't be able to upgrade their yachts this year.  Boo Hoo.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:20 | 5623848 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Working people like the tens of thousands working pipelines in North America?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:28 | 5623879 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

As opposed to the millions who work at places like mcDonalds, because their good jobs were exported to China so CEOs could give themselves bigger bonuses.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:33 | 5624235 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Well if they wanted better paying jobs they could have gone to the oilfields but not now.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 02:01 | 5626946 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

Il bet the price of an "around the world" has dropped to $75 in N Dakota

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 16:25 | 5625122 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Heard this song before...

"If oil drops below $XX then we're in trouble..."

 

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:19 | 5623839 yrad
yrad's picture

US 10 Year Treasury at 1% is bad, mmmk?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:24 | 5623862 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

It's upsetting to a status quo built on expectations oil would never see $80/barrel, but unless you are personally involved with an oil extraction project assuming $80 and higher prices, it should be good news to you and in any case to the overall economy.

I'm probably overinvested in oil, I never saw this coming, I thought something like $80 was a floor and $60 would be crazy low, but now I don't know what them crazy Saudis are doing or why, but I don't think it's going to last, so enjoy will ye may.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:30 | 5623887 blewsyboy
blewsyboy's picture

Guys if i have 5.42$ in my bank account, how much of this do i stand to lose? this IS terrifying...

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:30 | 5623890 yogibear
yogibear's picture

So when do the chain of derivatives blow up?

The banksters have the green light because their backed by the taxpayer. 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:18 | 5624155 Sweet Cheeks
Sweet Cheeks's picture

Congress put the taxpayers on the hook for $300 TRILLION in derivatives in the recently passed CRomnibus bill passed in Dec. 2014. That was a fraction of the 2008 meltdown in housing derivatives.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:32 | 5623891 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

The thought of cheap gas is fucking terrifying.

Yeah, right.  What's gonna scare me next, boogy-man?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:34 | 5623896 moneybots
moneybots's picture

 

Gundlach: "I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying."

 

Something IS very very wrong with the world, regardless whether oil goes to 40. 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:36 | 5623910 reader2010
reader2010's picture

What the fuck is this shit? The claim that lower oil price won't help speculators realize spectacular profit in a nutshell says that they have placed their bets out of money.  Are you saying low oil price equally hurts mom-and-pop and average Joe more than high oil price?  Get a grip. 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:40 | 5623929 Ewtman
Ewtman's picture

OIL is definitely headed for $40, but it should take a short break soon as it finds temporary support...

 http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/oil-light-sweet-crudeelliott-wave-upd...

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:45 | 5623951 homiegot
homiegot's picture

The Fed will prop it up.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:48 | 5623970 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Drama queen.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:48 | 5623983 Batman11
Batman11's picture

I think we have known for some time that markets are detached from reality.

Has anyone analysed the fundamentals?

Like actual supply and demand figures.

Is supply rapidly  rising?

Is demand tanking?

Let's face it the price on markets means little.

Though this analysis is not going to be that easy taking into account countries like China initially raised demand to take advantage of falling prices but their storage facilities have finite capacity, which gives a distorted picture.

We need real supply and demand figures not market fantasy figures.

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:49 | 5623993 hackne
hackne's picture

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Reply

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:39 | 5624263 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

And your unemployed sister just received her regular monthly cheque for more than $10,000 for spending 3 hours a day at her computer running a call girl ring and dope delivery service.  (From inside her prison cell).

And you just got an inside line on $50 Million US in embezzled funds hidden in the Nigerian bank account of a Nigerian government insider who wants to send the money to you if you will provide your bank account details and a cash bribe for "expenses" so the money can be wired to you.  

Yeah, sure.  

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 22:43 | 5626469 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

You are aware that Law Enforcement is on this site.

 

I have engaged a few in heated debate at times.

 

But I am certain that I have one thing in common with them and will be in total agreement with them if they caged people as you.

 

And even if the atm scam is just that, a scam, so that you may collect $300, from people whom are willing to participate in a fraud, by sending them a blank card which will not work...THAT IS STILL ILLEGAL AND IMMORAL.

 

THEFT IS IMMORAL and THIEVES need to be shot. I do not care if it is you, or, Lloyd Blankfein, Jaime Dimon, et al.

 

I do not care if you justify it by writing that the victims are deserving...which they are...but that, still, does not justify YOUR WRONGDOING.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 01:59 | 5626940 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

havent you been arrested for MAIL FRAUD several times in the past?

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:50 | 5623994 Batman11
Batman11's picture

I think we have known for some time that markets are detached from reality.

Has anyone analysed the fundamentals?

Like actual supply and demand figures.

Is supply rapidly  rising?

Is demand tanking?

Let's face it the price on markets means little.

Though this analysis is not going to be that easy taking into account countries like China initially raised demand to take advantage of falling prices but their storage facilities have finite capacity, which gives a distorted picture.

We need real supply and demand figures not market fantasy figures.

 

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:52 | 5624011 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Tesla to zero, green to zero.  Oil production in the US to 20mmbbl/day.  Bank on it.  Look at NG, production has steadily increased as price has gone nowhere.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:54 | 5624013 Platypus
Platypus's picture

So lets see. In 2009 oil was at 33 bucks without any "terrifying" consequences. So i conclude this idiot is long oil till his eyeballs and he is terrified it will keep falling further!!!! : ) ) !!

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 12:59 | 5624041 jomama
jomama's picture

Because a one-time spot price right after the Lehman collapse is indicative of the present situation...

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:03 | 5624062 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

theres been a few years of fed engineered malinvestment since then. much on the subject of natural gas, which should go higher once the (fracking) hedge funds stop over supplying a market which needs infrastructure build out, not more supply. NG was selling at about half its BTU value. if this is a centrally planned economy its a damn poor one. oil presents the same problem, where are the refineries? mostly offshore. and where is the demand? people drive less not more, people fly more, take more public transportation, and they telecommute, or work from home, those changes were desirable outcomes. now they're screaming about $40 oil? they knew it was coming, they wanted it, the problem i see is that the commodity/asset market has moved as one, housing, is part of that, and if housing follows oil, then the Fed has a problem. apparently the oil exploration business has some of that same hot money and will the fed buy those energy bonds the way it bought MBS? stay tuned.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:08 | 5624099 Platypus
Platypus's picture

Actually oil stayed below and around 40 for almoust 6 months by the end of 2008 and mid 2009 without anything "terrifying" to end our civilisation. They are funny...those morons regarded as "experts". : ) )

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:15 | 5624140 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

You sound like a headline scanning algo. With so many local, state, and federal revenue streams dependent on oil production here in the US, and even worse scenarios in other oil exporting countries, and the thousands of relatively high paying jobs that are about to be lost globally.........yeah, all hype and no real problems caused by plummeting oil revenues. /sarc

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:21 | 5624176 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

"and the thousands of relatively high paying jobs that are about to be lost globally.........yeah, all hype and no real problems caused by plummeting oil revenues. /sarc"..

yep like clinton and bush cried at the millions of good paying jobs shipped overseas these many decades, I think bush said it best:" jobs americans arn't willin to do"..

some people just need killin..maybe the cops are catching on to who. probly not tho.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 14:12 | 5624455 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Another .zog agent provocatuer?

That's just what shadow gov wants, people getting violent so they can crack down.  How about you tell people about the Fed, about AE911truth, about the stranglehold of the Israel lobby on our "Representatives".

They already love to paint every awake person as crazy and a potential terrorist.  We don't need clowns running around with deer rifles please..

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 16:04 | 5624064 falak pema
falak pema's picture

What is different today to march 2009 is that the financial wizardry of the US Oligarchs and the FED have created a bigger bubble in US than after Lehman.

Give a scoundrel enuff ROPE and he finishes by hanging himself to it. Hitchcok made a film on that theme.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:04 | 5624074 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

and if the price falls far enough (like gold) there wont be any

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:11 | 5624117 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

I am not afraid of low oil prices, I am afraid that freedoms price is so high..we need more police and HLS/tsa agents to keep us in line..jobless americans are  a restless lot, selling loosies and such.

40,000 new regs and laws each and every year, inflation of the legal system, needed, the elite crooks see thieves and terrorists on every street and in every business, waiting to take revenge..for the crimes they commit daily..corzine hides  & pays his security ,waiting for someone to take justice to him.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:35 | 5624245 scattergun
scattergun's picture

At $100/barrel the Saudis had extra $$$ to fund terrorism. At $40/barrel they have to pump oil to pay their bills. We should see a drop in terrorist activity in the near future. Now if we could tie the NSA's budget to the price of oil ......

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