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Potential of dangerous asteroid to hit the Earth on January 26
From RT:
Potentially dangerous asteroid to fly by Earth on January 26
The asteroid, named 2004 BL86 by scientists, is estimated to be between 440-1,000 meters in diameter. 1.2 million kilometers is approximately three times the distance from the Earth to the Moon.
A space object is considered potentially dangerous if it crosses the Earth's orbit at a distance of less than 0.05 AU (approximately 19.5 distances from the Earth to the Moon), and if its diameter exceeds 100-150 meters. Objects of this size are large enough to cause unprecedented destruction, or generate a mammoth tsunami in case they fall into the ocean.
Obviously, there is the potential that this dangerous asteroid to fly by hits Earth on January 26, in just three weeks.
3 is less than 19.5 distances from the Earth to the Moon, and 440-1,000 is greater than 100-150 meters.
I cannot forget that these same astronomers had warned us several weeks in advance about a totally different asteroid passing near the Earth, coming from an entirely different direction than the Chelyabinsk meteorite (for which we received no warning) the very same day that it exploded over Russia. What are the odds of that? Talk about a coincidental blind spot! Weird.
The earlier-predicted close approach of another, larger asteroid that same day, the roughly 30-metre 367943 Duende (at the time still known by its provisional designation 2012 DA14) occurred about 16 hours later; the very different orbits of the two objects showed they were unrelated to each other.
There is some entertaining post-apocalyptic reading on this subject. The classic is Lucifer's Hammer, by Jerry Pournelle, but more recently, The Perseids Collapse trilogy, by Steven Konkoly, is maybe even better, but you will want to first read his novel, The Jakarta Pandemic. In addition, The Road, by Cormac McCarthy may also be pertinent, especially if you have young children, and it is very well written.
So, let's have a little fun here on Zero Hedge, and use this as a test of your TEOTWAWKI preparedness. Our test scenario is that, like in Lucifer's Hammer, BL86 breaks up into several large meteorites between 100 and 800 meters, and many smaller. Let us say that three of the large ones hit in the ocean closest to you, causing both blast waves and subsequent massive tsunamis up to 100 feet high in all directions, and the other two hit a land mass in your hemisphere, causing massive atmospheric debris, torrential rains, no sun, and global crop failures for one year.
Let's start by having everyone answer five questions:
1) Do you really want to live?
Then, if you do want to live, and setting aside the fact that luck or fate play a big role in one's individual chance for survival:
2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive?
3) Are you going to stay put, or go somewhere?
4) How do you rate your chances of surviving 24 months?
5) What is the number one thing you could do in the next three weeks to dramatically increase your odds of surviving 24 months?
As a reminder...
Acknowledge that nobody really knows if, what, when, or how anything in the future is going to happen...it is all just speculation. Finally, always remember that, "on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero," so don't get too worked up, or go into debt, just because of this little exercise in paranoia.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-19-10/fear-we-are-returning-ti...
BONUS: If you answered no to question one, or even if you answered yes, then what is the number one thing you want to do in the next three weeks if this is really THE END?
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Let me rephrase that for you. It would be interesting to see how the CIA/NSA media plants, and the Elite owners of the six corporations allowed the mainstream media to present the end of the world.
Personally, I suspect they flatly wouldn't be allowed to acknowledge it at all. Additionally the Internet would probably 'just happen' to completely crash for an indeterminate duration as well. North Korea would be blamed in the MSM for the Net crash.
The most entertaining thing about TEOTWAWKI via a very physical, non-rapturous asteroid, would be watching the various religious looneys dealing with the non-conformance of the actual END with their ridiculous expectations. I suspect I'd end up being forced to shoot a few of these dangerous lunatics in self defense. Very satisfying self defense. In starvation survival, religious delusions don't change the flavor of the meat.
Just name the asteroid 'Jesus', problem solved.
Bullish?
Hello Bruce Willis.....earth needs you and your oil driller friends....considering they are all going to loose their jobs soon in the fracking patch...this could be the news we need.
1) i ask myself that question every day
2) yes as long as i can go through an intermediary like the USG, or the stock market
3) is Club Med booking?
4) at my age 24 months is a long time
5) buy more stocks
Does anyone here know the personal phone number for Richad Branson?
Even if we assume the NASA calculations are so bad that this huge object they've been tracking for years could hit with equal likelihood anywhere within a radius of 1.2 million km of their predicted passby point, a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation shows the probability of it hitting Earth would be 0.00011.
A good mental exercise perhaps, for thinking through the thousand-times more likely - but harder to estimate - event that our psychopathic and desperate rulers blunder into a nuclear war with Russia and China. Even there, I'd place one's survival chances much higher based on a neighborhood organizing and cooperation model than a bugger thy neighbor and run stategy. You're not going to get very far running, and neighbors whose kids are starving aren't going to put up with your not sharing.
These are the clowns who caused a mars shot to run out of fuel because they mixd up the metric and imperial systems.
Unless you have a reason to think a NASA error would not merely be likely but would have a bias toward hiding the danger, .00011 is a worst case scenario.
As for deliberately hiding the danger, I think that unlikely. If this rock seemed likely to pass very close to the Earth, with say a 1% chance of collision, the Powers that Be would be thrilled; they'd be trumpeting it, not hiding it! A 1% risk of oblivion from out of the dark would for them be a very welcome distraction for the masses.
Wouldn't it be just awful if it missed us?!
That is the worst possible outcome.
I check spaceweather.com routinely; there are 4 'dangerous' asteroid or near-earth objects that could impact earth, yada yada. There are always some, and we've just come through the past couple of days with closer and bigger objects that we have avoided. the lunar distance is considerable; I remember a year or so back there was an asteroid that was going to pass between the earth and the moon, and there were no consequences.
I think the author is looking to raise fears, draw our attention to some probably meaningless event to take place, and profit from his writing by selling us more doomsday preps.
Hedgeless is selling doomsday preps? Great job shooting your mouth off and looking like an idiot.
And he has been here over a year?
He has no fucking excuse.
That was just a cheap shot.
What a fucker to libel someone.
I can't tell if he wants to be eaten by rabbits or if he eats rabbit food. Or maybe sells it? Dunno. It was a silly post when he started with the accusations.
1. Yes
2. Yes
3. Stay
4. Good
5. Buy a chicken or two.
If THE END is coming I'll long s&p as it's bound to rally..... They'll find away to make it go up even if they are dead.....
1) Do you really want to live? Absolutely, yes.
2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive? Murder is defined, by me at least, as taking the life of a fellow human being without just cause. I have no problem taking the life of those who present that just cause.
3) Are you going to stay put, or go somewhere? I've already prepositioned myself and my family as best as possible for both nuclear conflict and planetary disasters. We are "bugging in."
4) How do you rate your chances of surviving 24 months? Mine are very high. I cannot, unfortunately, say the same for my immediate family members. They will be helped in any way possible as long as I have the means necessary however.
5) What is the number one thing you could do in the next three weeks to dramatically increase your odds of surviving 24 months? Nothing else, by me at least, could be done to help survive the event you describe.
BONUS: If you answered no to question one, or even if you answered yes, then what is the number one thing you want to do in the next three weeks if this is really THE END? I want to enjoy as much quality time with my children as possible while also continuing to improve their survival skills and chances.
It is an interesting exercise. I guess many people don't want to get carried away with fear by thinking about it. Or maybe most people already have their mind made up that it is too expensive, futile, a waste of time considering the 200 years of USA Success.
But first off money becomes useless. So the question is whether you can defend yourself and band of brothers... and what is valuable, or valuable to the tribe and for trade.
My conclusion is that I have a nice neighborhood now with nice people. However we people lose everything they lose it. So staying put seems wise for 30 days to let the gangs and thugs kill each other off on the streets. They will be going house to house within a week, but lots of houses have guns around here. Then 1-2 weeks after Day Zero, thugs from the city that usually run drugs to our local communities will be here thinking this is a soft target for valuable and dominating and forcing youngsters into their Gang. 3rd Week the Local Thugs will have experience with strong arm robbery and taking houses and businesses. But I don't think they will have the best guns yet.
By the 3rd week, thugs will have taken portions of Highways and water ways to extract valuables from travelers. Roadblocks. This will be possible only in certain places, but we won't know where they are when we travel.
1) Do you really want to live? I think it is Natural. But people act different in crisis and in fear. Maybe wanting to die gives us the courage to face the thugs and gangs.
Then, if you do want to live, and setting aside the fact that luck or fate play a big role in one's individual chance for survival:
2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive? I like most answers here by posters. Truthfully we don't know what we will do. Most men and women here naturally defend their families. Food, Better shelter that is defensible, a Fort, a Boat, a Big Truck with Gas, Medicine, Doctor Care, Water... Tools. I don't think I am ready for this decision to Steal or Murder. If it was stealing government property or water or food, Yes.
3) Are you going to stay put, or go somewhere? 30 Days Stay put hope the thugs kill each other off.
4) How do you rate your chances of surviving 24 months? Zero - 10%, unless the community farmers were able to provide food stuffs regularly. Plus even with a gun, it is hard to watch your back. I still don't know what I would trade for assistance. A pallet of guns, ammo & Jack Daniels might be the thing.
5) What is the number one thing you could do in the next three weeks to dramatically increase your odds of surviving 24 months? Procure Trade Goods. If it is an Ice Age, then maybe... Cold Weather Camping Equipment on a Pallet, Sleds, Ice Augers, Ice Shacks, Water Systems, Water Filters, Water Storage Systems, Portable Water Storage Systems, Iron Cooking Pots.
Meteor pieces breaking up and hitting all over earth, hmmm, we can fake that with metal missles.
yes I want to continue to live, but 2, I think the real issue is..are you willing to take whatever action is neccessary to -avoid- the vast numbers of folks who ARE willing to kill and steal from you. 3 I would skype and have an online constant meeting with about 40 people. 4, hmm, 24 months, guess I am not mormon enough yet...5, move to places like maine where you can eat fish, and they grow potatoes and other items, and grow too much by far for the local population. 6, then, I would just assume all was well, and cheer up. http://www.margaritaville.tv/player?mc_id=566
Shoot a 71 and get a hole in one.
I think I'll go to a Karoke bar and sing "Dust In the Wind" and watch on the Big Screen as CNBC announces: " With world about to end , S&P is up (+) 12 pts on moar QE Speculation. "
I am sitting on 12 cases of Jack Daniels. No fear here.
http://www.jackdaniels.com/by-the-barrel
Or even
http://www.ryot.org/want-to-buy-a-barrel-of-jack-daniels-whiskey-sams-cl...
I would love to have a whole barrel...
You might want to chase all that with some Malox.
Or a liver transplant...
Sigh. The reason a 100+ meter asteroid that can pass within 5 million miles of earth is considered "dangerous" is... wait for it... because after millions of orbits of asteroid and earth around the sun, it might collide with earth.
The point is, the fact an asteroid can pass within 5 million miles once means it can and almost always will pass within 5 million miles again some day. That's the nature of solar-system orbits, they repeat.
True, over millions of years an orbit can shift a tad due to closs passes to objects. In fact, this pass is close enough to tweak the asteroid orbit slightly, which might eventually make it not pass through the earth orbital plane at earth distance any longer (remove from list), or perhaps make it pass closer to earth on some future pass.
Or maybe, if we're lucky, impact earth and give humans something worthwhile to do, instead of playing their current roles as willing slaves and prey.
PS: I'm ready. I'm prepared. And I'd love the rock to vaporize DC.
Someday maybe, for a while, my collaborators and I will live inside or "behind" an asteroid like that. But we'll choose one much further from earth. We prefer not to live in "bad neighborhoods" when we have a choice... and we have millions of choices.
Then again, if I ever have to die (not planning on it), perhaps the ultimate classy way to go is... to guide, then ride an asteroid right down to DC, Slim Pickins and Stanley Kubrick style. Yeeee haaaa!
Hi honestann,
How's the AI project going? I hope it's progressing well.
Everyone hopes for a meteorite strike on DC, and I can see the attraction. But for an effective decapitation of the evil elites, the 'head' would need to be destroyed, not just a bunch of middle management puppets in DC. Take out the Committee of 300, Bilderbergers, CFR, Bohemian Grove, City of London, Freemasons, Knights Templar, Skull & Bones, Vatican, Rothschilds, etc... and just *maybe* the hydra-headed Elites would be defeated.
Something I notice about discussions of asteroid impacts, is that no one ever seems to factor in the effects of smashing numerous nuclear power plants, waste dumps, weapons, and nuke-powered ships & subs. We'd be looking at something much worse than a long winter. Especially since in the industrial crash following the immediate effects, ALL the OTHER nuke plants would end up losing containment too.
There's no such thing as a 'near extinction level event', now we have hundreds of nuke installations world wide. Any really bad situation is guaranteed to cascade to total extinction, over a few hundred years as radioactive contamination spreads.
The failure to factor in radiological contamination consequences of major natural disasters seems to be a case of extreme cognitive bias - normalcy bias combined with the multiplier of 'human species extinction' conceptual avoidance.
Sorry to be depressing.
Slowly but surely and methodically. Sure, I'd love to vaporize all the bad actors, but I'm not quite sure how to make one asteroid do that.
However, if you can compile a set of 100 or 1000 coordinates (longitude and latitude), perhaps once we get ourselves established in outer space (mostly the asteroid belt in fact), we can arrange for a cloud of 100 or 1000 appropriately sized asteroids to accidentally impact those targets (all at the same moment).
Personally, I find it difficult to worry about those kinds of disasters, when to me the real disaster that is 100% real, not theoretically possible, is happening every day. And that is the absolute, complete and permanent enslavement of all human producers by those nefarious, diabolical human predators-that-be.
If they get much further, I honestly say the complete extermination of the species would be a huge positive. I'm not kidding. Yes, yes. Some humans appear to enjoy being slaves, but tough turkey for them. They helped the predators-that-be achieve what they have.
Well our current stone age people seem to be the most natural survivors... and they don't really enslave more people than they can personally use... as far as I know.
So people in Papua New Guinea, Australia, the Bushmen of Africa... we could save them.
But yeah, seems like the real danger is from our Elites.
.
.
1) Yes, I like a good challenge. There is an adrenaline rush and a sense of actually "feeling" alive in such scenarios.
2) Yes, I'm mentally incapacitated in the compassion for other human beings.
3) Both. You have to be flexible; only way to survive.
4) very poor
5) food storage & re-accessing my BOB
Bonus: not sure HH, given my propensity to attempt to beat the odds I would honestly assume that I would be 'surviving' until my last breath
PS: I like this piece!
1) Do you really want to live?
Sure - you only die once. Why rush it?
2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive?
I'd rather not. That's why we prep. Self-defense is another issue.
3) Are you going to stay put, or go somewhere?
Probably head to our farm/BOL.
4) How do you rate your chances of surviving 24 months?
65%? We've got about a year's worth of food - but the nuclear winter deal could cause us some serious problems.
5) What is the number one thing you could do in the next three weeks to dramatically increase your odds of surviving 24 months?
Store more food and fuel, and get at least one high-tunnel set up.
That's about where I'm at.
1)Yes. I'm not in any hurry to check out.
2) Murder? No. Unless I run into some choice politicians or bankers. Self-Defense? Yes, absolutely. Steal? No. I will not abandon my ethics.
3)Probably stay put.
4) Better than average.
5) Lay in more supplies. Buy materials for a greenhouse, put in rabbit hutches and a chicken yard. On credit.
HH, Earth Abides was a very good post- apocalyptical novel written in the 50s. Stephen King said the book inspired him to write The Stand.
Of course, The Walking Dead, number one show on TV, might be a clue offered by Hollywood. Considering all the 9-11 symbols in Hollywood films and TV shows prior to the Event, one can wonder what the PTB know that we do not.
"...what is the number one thing you want to do in the next three weeks if this is really THE END?"
Easy. Plastic trash can filled with ice, Johnny Walker Blue, hookers and blow until the superheated plasma brings the curtain down.
I think this is the few times I can condone using credit.
That's quite unselfish - to boost GDP even in the face of your own demise. :-)
So, you're taking the John McAfee route out of town...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKgf5PaBzyg
Any chance it can be scheduled to hid DC during the State of the Union? Other than that:
1) After 68 years of watching the USSA swirl around the toilet bowl, I don't really care.
2) Yes, but mostly out of orneriness. If there isn't a meteor strike then the Obamacare death panels will probably get me sooner or later anyway.
3) I'd stay put, living as I do near Ft. Lauderdale and only a mile or so from the ocean. A large strike might make temperatures cool down globally, so the nearer the equator the better. Lots of other factors to consider, but as you point out, nobody really knows if, what, when, or how it might happen. Or whare. A strike somewhere in China would wipe out a few of my in-laws, but anyplace else would be nearer home.
4) 24 months? Probably zero, depending on how well the US infrastructure holds up. On the other hand, even lacking a meteor strike I wonder how well the US infrastructure will be if SHTF financially, anyway. (I wonder where I could have gotten that idea!)
5) Buy lots of supplies, preferably on credit. Lots of booze. (Being in an auto accident while drunk isn't bad, because one just goes limp. Or so I've heard. Maybe it works for meteor strikes too.)
Seriously, whare I am, and at my age, my best option is to get as limber as possible so I can bend over and kiss my butt goodbye. (I'm betting someone already has posted this, but when I began this somment there were zero other posts.)
Since I can't edit my response, let me apologize for 'whare' instead of where. The meteor must already be having an effect on the server software.
You can't edit your post once somebody replies to it.
We'll be fine.
2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive?
Shit, I have known for a long time who is going to get it first. It has nothing to do with survival.
+100
3 simple steps to take if the asteroid hits the earth:
1. Bend over
2. put your head between your legs
3. kiss your ass goodbye
Not even close to the end. The Tunguska event was of similar size 200 ft - 600ft in diameter. While it caused widespread devistation in a largely unpopulated area of Russia, it hardly affected the Earth enough to be considered apocalyptic. This chunk of rock is a little more then three times further then the moon. We have way more likelyhood of the market crashing on that date as we do of this thing crashing. It would still suck if you were in the impact zone, but hardly worthy of the title TEOTWAWKI.
400 to 1100 Meters wide.orders of magnitude bigger. If this thing hits, we'll end up with a second moon...
True on size, but still not TEOTWAWKI or even remotely close to another moon. It took a Mars sized body to get the one we have.
http://simulator.down2earth.eu/results.html?lang=English&dist=0&diam=900...
No Wahington DC option for some reason. :(
Please let it hit Wash DC !
Purdue's simulator is pretty sweet, too, apocolyptic overtones aside.
http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/
A 1.0 km asteroid would be nothing more than a very bad day for the area that surrounds where it hit. Most of the damage would be from collapsing world economies and panic than anything else. A lot of tsunami if it hits water. A lot of ejecta masking some moderate percentage of sunlight for some time if it hits land but hardly a planet killer or ELE for humanity.