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Potential of dangerous asteroid to hit the Earth on January 26
From RT:
Potentially dangerous asteroid to fly by Earth on January 26
The asteroid, named 2004 BL86 by scientists, is estimated to be between 440-1,000 meters in diameter. 1.2 million kilometers is approximately three times the distance from the Earth to the Moon.
A space object is considered potentially dangerous if it crosses the Earth's orbit at a distance of less than 0.05 AU (approximately 19.5 distances from the Earth to the Moon), and if its diameter exceeds 100-150 meters. Objects of this size are large enough to cause unprecedented destruction, or generate a mammoth tsunami in case they fall into the ocean.
Obviously, there is the potential that this dangerous asteroid to fly by hits Earth on January 26, in just three weeks.
3 is less than 19.5 distances from the Earth to the Moon, and 440-1,000 is greater than 100-150 meters.
I cannot forget that these same astronomers had warned us several weeks in advance about a totally different asteroid passing near the Earth, coming from an entirely different direction than the Chelyabinsk meteorite (for which we received no warning) the very same day that it exploded over Russia. What are the odds of that? Talk about a coincidental blind spot! Weird.
The earlier-predicted close approach of another, larger asteroid that same day, the roughly 30-metre 367943 Duende (at the time still known by its provisional designation 2012 DA14) occurred about 16 hours later; the very different orbits of the two objects showed they were unrelated to each other.
There is some entertaining post-apocalyptic reading on this subject. The classic is Lucifer's Hammer, by Jerry Pournelle, but more recently, The Perseids Collapse trilogy, by Steven Konkoly, is maybe even better, but you will want to first read his novel, The Jakarta Pandemic. In addition, The Road, by Cormac McCarthy may also be pertinent, especially if you have young children, and it is very well written.
So, let's have a little fun here on Zero Hedge, and use this as a test of your TEOTWAWKI preparedness. Our test scenario is that, like in Lucifer's Hammer, BL86 breaks up into several large meteorites between 100 and 800 meters, and many smaller. Let us say that three of the large ones hit in the ocean closest to you, causing both blast waves and subsequent massive tsunamis up to 100 feet high in all directions, and the other two hit a land mass in your hemisphere, causing massive atmospheric debris, torrential rains, no sun, and global crop failures for one year.
Let's start by having everyone answer five questions:
1) Do you really want to live?
Then, if you do want to live, and setting aside the fact that luck or fate play a big role in one's individual chance for survival:
2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive?
3) Are you going to stay put, or go somewhere?
4) How do you rate your chances of surviving 24 months?
5) What is the number one thing you could do in the next three weeks to dramatically increase your odds of surviving 24 months?
As a reminder...
Acknowledge that nobody really knows if, what, when, or how anything in the future is going to happen...it is all just speculation. Finally, always remember that, "on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero," so don't get too worked up, or go into debt, just because of this little exercise in paranoia.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-19-10/fear-we-are-returning-ti...
BONUS: If you answered no to question one, or even if you answered yes, then what is the number one thing you want to do in the next three weeks if this is really THE END?
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A comet strike 13 thousand years ago, striking above the great lakes, burned down most of North America, with hot debris landing in the Carolina's and dgging out gouges visible on google earth, it was an extinction level event for man in North America... Its all about one half m v squared, v squared being the critical term...
Where in THE hell did you come up with this theory? GLP?
Just like with, erhm, other things - it's not the size that counts. Density (both of impactor and strike zone), angle of impact, and relative velocity are far more important. For example, a fridge sized object with a density of iron traveling at 1% the speed of light has more destructive potential then a 10 mile wide comet with the density of ammonia ice and dust traveling at 1000 km/hr.
Now this is an asteroid impact worth worrying about:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBWbpFz3wac&feature=player_embedded
Great music, great idea to set that event to it.
Agreed. Very intense. Was worth the click.
;
Have some fun and destroy the World with this Asteroid Impact Calculator from Purdue University.
Try it first before writing...Here it is again...It does not bite.
http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth
It beats mere speculation and writing out of your ass.
I have and have studied this a great deal. It's an interest of mine. Just to humor you I did go to that site and input a 1km asteroid hitting land at 500 mile distance from me and the only major effect is a 7.5-8.0M earthquake depending on asteroid speed. Some moderate ejecta and no thermal effects. Nothing to sneeze at but hardly an ELE. That impact is what I would consider being local to me. Earth is large and the chances of it being thousands of miles from me are greater than it being 500 miles from me. Once again the only major effect is high magnitude earth shaking. A bad day yes. Hardly an ELE as I stated before.
Whatever. If there's nothing that humanity can do to redirect the path of an Earth-bound asteroid, what's the point of worrying about it? I've slowly eliminated most news sources from my life--maybe ZH will be next. I now realize just how nice it must have been two centuries ago, when the average person had absolutely no idea of what was happening in the rest of the world...tune it out, take care of your own, and stop worrying about every goddamn thing that comes over the transom...
Vooter,you miss the point of knowing/not knowing. The ability to prepare. If Earth is to be hit by a modest sized meteor then you will have a high probability of survival as long as you know the likely effects of the impact. I ran that Purdue impact calculator for this sized meteor striking near my home and I know I can survive if I move less than 100 miles away from the expected impact site, keep to high ground (tsunamis) and shelter in a strong basement with enough supplies for the first week. For that I only need 2-3 hours notification of impact to flee.
Your head in the sand crowd will remain in Pompeii and other coastal locations and get wiped out.
"Your head in the sand crowd will remain in Pompeii and other coastal locations and get wiped out."
I'm going to be wiped out at some point in the next 30 or 40 years anyway, so who cares?
I'd hope that you care...especially since you are predicting a 30 to 40 year timeline for yourself.
I do not predict living another Decade myself...
But I think that YOU DO CARE. Otherwise you'd not be protesting this as much as you are.
So your post seems ingenuine.
Not only did you care enough to respond.
You came back to this discussion after NINE HOURS had passed to check upon the responses. That does not read as if you do not care to me.
You took the red pill and now you are pissed off about it. Too bad.
As I wrote previously TEN HOURS AGO, "But you will not ever be able to return to ignorance as the knowledge will gnaw at you until you return."
And my prediction has been realized.
LMAO
Whatever. If there's nothing that humanity can do to redirect the path of an Earth-bound asteroid, what's the point of worrying about it?
Because there IS something that humanity can do to redirect the path of an Earth Bound Asteroid...if we have advance knowledge about it.
Sticking your head in the sand is not an affective survival strategy...that is...if you want to survive. Now you can choose to ignore the news if that pleases you. Most are more concerned with the size of Kim Kardashian's ass than they are about any NEO. But it is far too late for YOU. You have eaten the Red Pill and there is no turning back. You are here. I am sorry if the truth is upsetting. But you will not ever be able to return to ignorance as the knowledge will gnaw at you until you return. You took the Red Pill. You made the choice.
Anyway the NEOs which are the greatest threats are the ones which we have not detected. But we are slowly mapping out the inner Solar System to identify the threats.
Even with doing that we have got it down to those measuring 100 meters in Diameter. But if one is missed...
You can read about it here..
http://lsst.org/lsst/science/scientist_solar_system
Ground-based optical surveys are the most efficient tool for comprehensive near-Earth object (NEO) detection, determination of their orbits and subsequent tracking. A survey capable of extending these tasks to PHAs with diameters as small as 100 m requires a large telescope, a large field of view and sophisticated data acquisition, processing and dissemination system. A 10 m-class telescope is required to achieve faint detection limits quickly, and together with a large field of view (~10 square degrees), to enable frequent repeated observations of a significant sky fraction -- producing tens of terabytes of imaging data per night. In order to recognize PHAs, determine their orbits and disseminate the results to the interested communities in timely manner, a powerful and fully automated data system is mandatory. See Ivezic et al. 2006, LSST: Comprehensive NEO Detection, Characterization, and Orbits, (astro-ph/0701506) [PDF]
Mount Palomar has a 5 Meter scope which was the largest in the World for a considerable Time.
There are just not that many 10 Meter Telescopes available.
These objects are very, very dim, very small, with low albedos.
"Sticking your head in the sand is not an affective survival strategy...that is...if you want to survive. Now you can choose to ignore the news if that pleases you. Most are more concerned with the size of Kim Kardashian's ass than they are about any NEO. But it is far too late for YOU. You have eaten the Red Pill and there is no turning back. You are here. I am sorry if the truth is upsetting. But you will not ever be able to return to ignorance as the knowledge will gnaw at you until you return. You took the Red Pill. You made the choice."
Oh, shut the fuck up...
You made the choice, Vooter.
There is no turning back.
You know it and it pisses you off.
LOL...do you know how ridiculously stupid and pretentious you sound? I'm sitting here enjoying a basketball game with my dog, and you're gravely intoning some completely meaningless "There is no turning back" bullshit. LOL...okay, Dr. Goofy! I guess there's no turning back! I guess I "made the choice"! Holy shit...lemme go warn the cat! Dipshit...
You are responding.
That is not "enjoying a Basketball game with your dog."
But, really, how do you play Basketball with your dog? Your dog might dribble on the ball rather than dribble the ball.
So you come back after NINE HOURS...to respond....amazing.
LOL...somebody sure sounds desperate for affirmation! Look, how about this: YOU WIN. You're smart, and clever, and ahead of the curve, and ready for the coming meteorite, and an uber-man who will survive the apocalypse while other, lesser beings perish. ALL HAIL TALL TOM! What else do you want to hear? That I care? Okay, I CARE. If that'll shut you up, I want you to know that I desperately care about you and my other fellow human beings. In fact, I didn't realize how much I cared until you pointed it out...I was lost, and then I found you! I love you, Tommy...can I call you Tommy? And I'm especially sorry that I wasn't clear about the basketball thing...I was actually WATCHING a basketball game with my dog, not playing. I'm so stupid for not making that clear, but it's just another area in which I can improve in the coming years, assuming that the meteorite misses my house. Oh, god, I hope it does...now I can't sleep for caring...I can't think of anything else...what do you think the odds are? I'm kind of up on a hill, so at least I'll probably be able to avoid the effects of the tsunami, but what about the looting, and the murdering? Will I be able to murder someone if I have to...I don't know...I would hope so, but it's such a complicated issue...but I'm going to think it through, because I fucking care...A LOT.
Where is Superman goddamn it?!?
I've thought about this from time to time but expect a major disaster being human caused and my preparations are about the same. The big question would be whether it hits land or water. Water is the most likely due to coverage and a tsunami would do the most damage though I'm willing to bet as many people die evacuting the coasts as the wave would kill. Hitting land will leave a big damned hole and depending on the mass could be another dinosaur killer. As long as it doesn't whack my little corner of Texas I'll have a chance of survival and if I don't I won't have to worry anymore.
I second lawn chair and alcohol.
a second hand lawn chair does leave more money for alcohol
I'll add to that a pellet rifle, helium balloons and a good seat belt !!!
Someone already did that in 1982.
"The Lawn Chair Pilot"
http://www.markbarry.com/lawnchairman.html
http://www.nytimes.com/1982/07/03/us/truck-driver-takes-to-skies-in-a-la...
if he had been a zero hedger
he would have gone airborne
in a canoe ...
1) Yes.
2) No.
3) Stay.
4) Better than a vast majority of my fellow humans.
5) One can always have more food storage.
BONUS: Write love letters to my wife and children. Fly fish The Black Canyon of the Gunnison one last time, and remember to bring some butter, almonds, and green beans.
You would be fishing in my backyard. Milestones
Same here
HH..You wrote in your article...
I cannot forget that these same astronomers had warned us several weeks in advance about a totally different asteroid passing near the Earth, coming from an entirely different direction than the Chelyabinsk meteorite (for which we received no warning) the very same day that it exploded over Russia. What are the odds of that? Talk about a coincidental blind spot! Weird.
It is not that weird. There is just no way of detecting these dim asteroids in the Daytime Sky. They are very dim objects in the Nighttime Sky. The Daytime light washes them out easily and totally.
In fact you will not even be able to see this asteroid which you are writing about with your own unaided eyes during its closest approach to the Earth. (I do not care if you live at the darkest, most remote place on Earth. You are limited to viewing Objects that are no dimmer than Magnitude 6. Your eye is PHYSICALLY LIMITED.
The way that the Human Eye works is that images are recorded once every Quarter Second, then, subsequently erased and a new image starts recording. That is why a GEARED Watch, with 4 Beats per second, appears as a continuous motion as most cannot discern that there are 4 clicks to make the Second Hand move one second. However a strobe will destroy the illusion of continuity.
(Now if you drop some LSD and extend the time to where an image is impressed upon your Retina, then perhaps it may be possible. That phenomena is what causes the "Trails" that the trippers see. I would not suggest that you do this...but...from my own anecdotal experience, which I abandoned long ago when I GREW UP, I know that it is possible and, operating large telescopes under that influence, I have seen far fainter objects than I should have normally...)
BUT I REGRESSED...
Let's suppose that an asteroid were bright enough to be detected One Month from the collision with the Earth in the Nighttime Sky...
Now let's put that same object in the Daytime Sky where the Daylight will wash them out. Now since the Earth does move in orbit it moves 1/12th of the distance around the Sun.
Since there are 41253 Square Degrees on a Sphere and since the Daytime Sky encompasses half of the Celestial Sphere then there are 20,626.5 Square Degrees on the Daytime Celestial Sphere.
Since the Earth traversed 1/12th of its orbit in one Month then there is still the remaining 11/12ths that it did not traverse.
Thus 20,626.5 Square Degrees(11/12) = 18907 Square Degrees.
And that is still one hell of a large "Blind Spot".
Hugs
Your resident astrophysicist.
What about digital telescopes, particularly ones with wider spectrum than human eye? What about RADAR and LIDAR? Could a high-frame rate camera be used with a telescope to pick up fainter objects?
RADAR lacks resolving ability. It just cannot be done with Ground Based Instruments as the atmosphere scatters Daylight and washes out any optical signature.
We actually need a fleet of Space Probes to search for NEO threats from the Daytime Side to do that effectively.
And, then, what do you do if you detect a threat? There is no rapid response system available. Rockets are expensive and to design a Mission to alleviate the threat in the order of 5 to 30 Days is unlikely.
In fact for fun, and as a challenge, I used to attempt to find and focus in on the Planets in the Daytime Sky with a small telescope. But they are relatively bright, sporting Negative Magnitudes. and I knew of their positions before attempting it.
I have seen Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, and Comet Hale-Bopp in the Daytime. But I have not ever seen any bright stars.
Hi Tom, working in the same field. Even with our best we see a tiny fractionha! If people only knew ha! Maybe we have shared a espresso ha! http://www.ctio.noao.edu/noao/content/CTIO-External-Webcam
Damn Tall Tom! Impressive shit. If you really are an astrophysicist I feel even worse about our society. Because I am absolutely sure that there isn't one bond trader, hedge fund manager or stock "analyst" living above a pawn shop. What a fucked up country!
Do not be certain about that.
There was a Hedge Fund Manager who was arrested for squatting in a Million Dollar home the other day.
I am not employed as an astrophysicist. That is what I studied in school. That is what I also taught for awhile.
But most whom are degreed in that discipline end up as Computer Programmers, Engineering Techs, High School Physics Teachers, Community College Physics Instructors...et al. There is not a great demand for astrophyscists. It might have been better chasing an Engineering Degree.
Very few end up ever actually working professionally in the field.
And then I got sick...with Lyme Disease.
As for me...I buy PMs. I sell jewelry.
It is all good.
Nice place to fish.....
Yes.
Been meanig to get a manual pump for my well - Iguess I should quit putting it off.
Me too. Let me know which one you choose.
Simple Pumps are an excellent choice. We have had ours for many years.
im sort of an amateur astronomer who has read many books about asteroids, spoken directly with experts and written on the subject.
this pathetic attempt at an astronomy article does not even come up to the pathetic level of fear mongering. it is just STUPIDITY.
you are a dubdrub, and my faith in ZH's quality is ever more shaken by attrociously stenchful subject treatement like this. you are the same stype of bumwit screaming his lungs off about global warming ending civilization in a few years. or the same kitblang sharting into everyone's mouth about tarp money being repaid. your are gomofoyke. a compelte bazaangazang. and i would squirt pontang cream from the patootie flower in your clownhole.
theres' plenty to discuss about asteroids. but you don't deserve a dignified discussion hedgeless. I've read many a post and article that you've written over the years. generally they are tolerable. you deserve to be marginalized for writing and publishing this malarkey.
i said it. you ploperflan. how will you resopnd? like a flamp or a flark?
teslaberry you need to have some humor and wit about you
ease up fella
this isn't actually about astronomy or asteroids...
i never knew asteroids and uranus had so much in common
Astronomer huh? You're a dingleberry hanging from the anal hairs of the cosmos.
Reminds me of when Capt. Kirk was orbiting Uranus looking for klingons.
.... that sure added a lot to the discourse.
1) Do you really want to live?
Wrong question. We are immortal souls trapped in a 3D world by choice.
So where are all these immortal souls coming from as the population grows? Are we the only destination? Is there a long line up somewhere for all these immortal souls? Does it look like an Apple store line up? (omg we're the stage after hell).
keep looking at your first question until you realise how flawed it is. - NB: This may take lifetimes
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1993-05-30/
Ha! to the Dilbert comic and Apple store comment. This damned place always puts a smile on my face. Thanks.