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The US Dollar Rally Has Crushed Brazil, Australia, and Now the S&P 500
We’ve been warning that stocks were susceptible to a sharp drop for several weeks now. Stocks are notoriously “dumb” when it comes to major market moves.
Consider that stocks, even at current lofty levels, have a global market capitalization of slightly over $60 trillion.
In contrast, the global bond market is well over $100 trillion.
And the global currency market trades OVER $5.3 trillion per day.
As a result, stocks ALWAYS “get it” last.
With that in mind, the S&P 500 was rejected at the upper trendline of a megaphone pattern.
This move is predicated on the US Dollar rally that began in July 2014.
Globally there are at least $9 TRILLION US Dollar shorts in the form of carry trades. When a carry trade unwinds, the damage is often catastrophic.
The first stage has completed and we’re due for the next leg up here. Check out the absolute bloodbath for the US Dollar/ Brazilian Real pair (when the Dollar strengthens against the Real, the chart moves up).
We’ve just completed a consolidation phase. The next move should be an absolute doozy.
Here’s the US Dollar/ Australian Dollar pair (again, when the Dollar strengthens against the Aussie Dollar, the chart moves up).
That’s a 17% move in less than SIX months.
You only get these kinds of moves when the STUFF IS HITTING THE FAN. By way of example, imagine the impact these moves would have on ANY project or investment that was borrowing US Dollars in Australia or Brazil.
As we keep emphasizing, stocks are ALWAYS the last to “GET IT.”
The currency markets (which trade $5 trillion per day) realizes that something MASSIVE is underway. And it’s only just beginning. Globally the US Dollar carry trade is over $9 trillion in size. As the US Dollar rally increases, this whole mess could implode.
If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.
You can pick up a FREE copy at:
http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html
Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
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US dollar huge crash now it can be huge right now . It will help oil
In the last 30 days a physical gold investment would net you 00.96%......wow.... amazing....try ANY other investment.....as for USD running up...how the fuck do you think US equities are gonna crash....global flight to safety...ponzi scheme not withstanding....check back here 30 days henceforth and lets see which you would rather have invested $$$$ in Gold or SPY.....
Gold is not an investment; it's a store of value.
Just be sure not to bug out before a month. On second thought whay wait a month? Tomorrow will be enough time to tell. I bought flash crash positions today because the technicals for tomorrow are horrific. That megaphone pattern is real and every algo in the world knows it's there. The market today dropped to the last significant support and then sat there. Where's the 'V' recovery? If it doesn't bounce over night and if the manufactured news tomorrow is negative we have a real possibilty of making it it the next support in one day. The next support is at 1710. A hundred bucks today could be $10,000+ tomorrow. Today was the biggest setup I've ever seen. It might take longer but that's ok, those puts are good through the end of Thursday. You may have picked the single worst day to brag about your S&P in recorded history.
so far...your right ...painfully so for my calls, lol...but it will march right back up even without a v shape recovery...as we both know...while gold spike up but TRENDS down
The ships keep coming to take our iron ore out to China. Cognitative dissonance.
Hauling out ghost goods, from their ghost factories, from their ghost cities...what could go wrong?
I must disagree. I believe the Chinese, such as in this instance, are simply stockpiling commodities as a means of dumping their dollars as quickly as they can. Thus the cognitive dissonance from a conventional point of view: consumer demand globally is way down and decreasing, yet the Chinese are buying materials to support manufacturing. Occams Razor is applicable.
"We’ve been warning that stocks were susceptible to a sharp drop for several weeks now." - Actually, you have been warning that stocks would crash for YEARS now... You are the most consistently wrong analyst I have ever encountered.
Spot on, Tradey.
Their constant lament that the end is nigh reminds me of those tiresome street preachers telling me to repent because the rapture is upon us...
And meanwhile; in the peanut gallery. I'm up about $5,000 on my Dec.'15 Silver Contract; that I reported here on the day I bought it; when some wise guy couldn't resist commenting; " thank you, from some hedger who sold you the Dec. Contract"; yeah, well; I like to be polite to hedgers and people who sell me contracts at stupid prices, maybe a little later this year I can send him a free pistol cartridge; so he can commit suicide. Meanwhile, back here on planet Earth; I put on my trademarked; (not really) zero loss stop loss order; so now; one of two things can happen; either a.) I make a lotta, lotta, money between now and Christmas time; or b.) I lose nothing. And this, boys and girls is how you trade futures. Of course, if this gets rolling, I won't have just one contract, because I'll buy another one using the Market's money; always kick the other guy in the teeth while he's still laying on the ground; basic Oakland street skills.
Darkdoc is right, and I think you're going to lose your pants in 2015, and clearly from a direction that's going to blindside you. As the dollar rises, faster and faster now, the devastation amid the global community will become increasingly widespread, thereby leading soon to an equally widespread abandonment of the dollar system as a whole. This will happen very quickly, such that just as the dollar reaches some absurd heighth in "strength," news will arrive that triggers an abrupt and massive decline in its relative valuation. Half of your so called profits will evaporate, and if you have not found a viable alternative currency by that time, the evaporation will only continue on a daily basis.
If you think those silver contracts will save you, forget it; you'll never be able to obtain delivery. You're just not a member of the real club, so you'll be offered at best, maybe, a cash premium greater than their nominal value --but in dollars! Moreover, as all this is happening, truly PHYSICAL gold and silver sales will be in panic mode around the world, so even if you can find a source who will actually accept all of your vast "profits" in exchange, the prices will be heading to the moon. In short, the investment path you've apparently chosen will soon lead only to the despair of a life-lesson you will never have the opportunity to actually apply. Read the writing on the wall, for crissake. What do you think this article is really about, anyway? So please reconsider the adolescent boasting. "Sat 800," indeed.
I've traded futures for over 20 years - made fortunes and sometimes have had large losses without ever blowing up my account.
You are amateur to the core if you haven't learned how pride and cockiness can destroy you. One lucky trade doesn't start to make a trader.
Good luck, bucko, you'll need it.
What part of zero loss stop order was it you didn't understand ? been doing it my way for about 15 years now; I need to write a book; the attitude is just fun, for Zero hedge. I did lose money, and go back and forth when I was suffering from 'conventional wisdom".
Even a broken watch is right twice a day...
The dollar is headed for the stratosphere eventually, but in the mean time it will find some temporary support about these levels...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-f...
This dollar is rising because other currencies in the basket case of basket cases are falling. The rush to the dollar and to gold to some extent reflect the collapse of several economies due to the oil deflation process. Expect Greece, Venezuela, Iran, possible Brasil and some others to run horrible deficits as their revenues drop. Tangible assets rule in such frantic markets and equities are tangible as they are 'means of production' referencing Marx.
The dollar should get stronger as this a market phenomenon and so should gold. The euro is toast.
The dollar is getting stronger because a lot of countries
max out their ZIRP cards. Now they get to pay back in
more expensive dollars. Effect interest BITCHES!
I would be AMAZED if the S&P were to touch the bottom of that megaphone patteren at 1800. Not saying it can't happen though.
The market will crash when phoenix capital throws in the towel and goes bullish
Never happen. The charts are not that analytical. Markets do not spend their time watching charts--they are doing other things.
Commodities are getting crushed, but Gold and Silver are hitting new highs during this same time period.
thumbs downed ya...as I am going contrarian
Booyah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Same time period; hour for hour; this is very significant; if you haven't been watching this; watch this. As I said, about 9 times now; right here on various comment pages; THE LOW IS IN FOR THE YEAR 2014-2015@$15.50 for Silver; so you can laugh at me when it crashes down below that; but this might be the "good year".
Hmmm... Brazil, Australia, and Russia are all getting crushed... Coincidentally, they all got rich selling raw materials to China... The China building bonanza must be over. All over but the shouting, that is. In Taiwan, the neon signs are all going out. Even at healthcare clinics. There's your drop in energy demand. Asia is crashing, and the US is fine. Get ready for a dollar bull market.
Singapore's PMI went into contraction zone last month, so it could get interesting.
" Asia never crashes " . stupid obummer .
They merely reconsider their options and reprioritize their commitments, now bend over and take it like a good little prole.....
"now bend over and take it like a good little prole....."
I believe, gentle reader Mr. Dragger, you are inviting other Gentle Readers here to take what is known as "The Patriot Position."
It's all about Love of Country and, like paying taxes or receiving tazes, being a Good Citizen.
I've been through a full IRS audit because I was honest about my tax return and believe me, the IRS doesn't say please....
Last man standing at a massacre, not my idea of winning....
..unless you are planning to vacation in Rio or on the Barrier Reef soon.
when you overlay the USD with the S&P500, it's looks even worse
http://bullandbearmash.com/updated-spx-inverted-relationship-usd-usd-sha...
USD remains the key and while it continues to get stronger (as the safe haven), markets and commodities should continue to fall
Market moves/manipulations HAVE TO BE F-A-S-T these days...with almost zero yield from bona fide investment anywhere, all that is left for the desperate yield chaser is speculation and betting.
Expect much more volatility everywhere: case in point...the dollar has soared VERY rapidly specifically to catch dollar shorts OUT.
Would be ironic that we get the huge GDP report and that results in the correction we all have been waiting for.
That megaphone pattern is screaming out....
Yep, I'm hearing 'get out', but that could just be me.