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But it can't drop any further? What about all that pent-up demand (and cash on the sidelines)?
This won't end well...
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Eventually, it will rebound. Whoever times this right will make out like a bastard.
Don't over think it......you'll drive yourself mad.
GS er ah the Fed needs to buy oil futures.
Ummmm.....nevermind.
It's a Trap!
No, its a fucking DEPRESSION you idiot!
" If you want to keep your Deflationary Depression, you can keep your Deflationary Depression. "
$35.
Just say'in.
Moar like $10 within a year.
And gas at the pump will be selling for undr $1/gallon or two farm fresh eggs or five 357 reloads...
If we hit $10 I'll shit a live clucking chicken.
make a video - post on you-twerp - go viral and be the next "celebrity"
Better start eating chicken bones and feathers then!
Now if only I could shit some 357 ammo.....
AND BTW.. USDJPY is back below 120:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Currency/USDJPY/charts
FUCKASHIT!
These two cartoons never grow old and really tell it like it is...
https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/14/oil-crisis-in-a-thousand-words/
Short North Dakota Coke and Hookers, Bitchez
It will goto $35 and not much below, and I can tell you why.
1. Some major players still make money at $35. At $15-20 almost NOBODY makes money. Corporations will not pump oil down the pipeline at a loss!! As soon as it hits $35 more and more players will idle their plants and cut off supply, when the cost of waiting with an idle plant is less costly than pumping and processing at a loss, supply will cut off rapidly!
2. It will stay at $35 until the major war breaks out 4-6 months. They need the little oil piglets like the frac players pushed out of the public trough..
SHORT CALGARY HOUSING!! Pricing will start to tank this summer when people laid off out of the industry have extended themselves as far as they can get and HAVE TO SELL. Then price discovery will come hard and cold.
Sell in May and go to war.
If it ever hits $10 Mike Maloney will become legendary for his call
But if you were going to wage a world war - it can be done NOW (as in this spring) for much cheaper than in 2 years when oil is back at $150 / barrel.
Big logistical pushes need A LOT of oil, diesel and gas - the cheaper the energy the better.
<wink> <wink> <wink wink wink wink wink...>
Well it's good to know they are perhaps waiting to go to war when oil is the cheapest, and this tells me they still care about the taxpayer at the end of the day...........really, they do.
#weCantSpeculateOnOilFutures
#handsupquitpumping
Right.
$35/bbl.
Dont blink your eyes or you might miss watching it get there.
(peak oil, my ass!)
(peak oil, my ass!)
Oh, you are so right! Peak oil is all about how much paper you can print, all about the market economy and NOTHING about reaching physical limits of production, independant of demand...
Please tell me, how much has the cost of extraction/production of oil declined in real terms, NOT nominal?
those who don't know what peak oil is, and who insist on framing their arguments accordingly, will never understand peak oil...
this site is riddled with people who don't know what peak oil is, despite best efforts of many to educate them...
I suggest throwing peak oil in the dust bin - abiotic oil namely Joe Vials abiotic oil - which seems to be being scrubbed off the internet as we speak.
There was a reason the Russian engineers discovered their oil pockets were refilling themselves in the 1950's
Exactly. The Russian studies were pretty thorough. It is hard to find on the intertubes, like you said.
... Fuck abiotic oil.
post terapin, WTF? peak oil is limited supply vs demand at any price..see we now have unlimited supply at low low prices..somebody is wrong. perhaps you should look in a mirror before saying somebody don't understand.
Actually, he's right. We are not at peak oil, we passed it about 5 years ago.
Hahaha
We depressed some folks.
Crude tracking gold. There. Feel better?
BTFD
buy the f*cking depression
Some folks got depressed, but banging your head against the wall has a tendency to do that.
"We Bolshevicked some folks."
Correct. I think it will go lower, like into the 30's or so... and if we go below that into the 20's, well, crap will hit the fan. Watch Japan and bonds...
Harry Dent had a pretty good interview on goldseek radio.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbMcfJEJp5c
Generally I agree with him about deflation. His only issue is, to an economic layman like me at least, he treats gold as a commodity, not money. In a deflationary crash, if paper dollars are king, why the hell wouldn't physical gold/silver be treated the same way??
LMAO
Anyone have GS calling them non-stop trying to peddle a WTI linked note that only makes out when WTI is below a certain price in June?
Wow......June is a long ways away!
What price was that?
Didn't the US gov't step in and buy grain futures in the aftermath of 1929, with the net result of US production surging, grain stores rocketing, and farmers going out of business in Argentina?
Yet another example of the not-so-invisible-hand-of-the-market...
1929......do you really want to go there?
We have already past that point in the current rhyme.
Histortory does not repeat, it rhymes
Dude, we passed 1929 in 2008!
GS er ah the Fed needs to buy oil futures.
You miss the point - the Fed just sold all of their oil futures, and that is what caused the price drop. Remember, the President's Working Group does what is best for the US government, and they are trying to bankrupt oil producing nation-states.This really could be about the givt taking over the oil industries they took over the auto and insurance coal now oil
(Banking, Education............
Forward Soviet!
Until the government owns Everything. And, I am the Government!
Libs are salivating at the thought of a carbon tax on this new cheap gas. Nevermind the fact that the coldest weather on record is on the way this week or that when gas goes back up to $3.50+ again that they won't cancel the carbon tax. Communists.
Here we go!
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Pa_gas_tax_to_rise_Jan_1_again_in_2015...
http://www.wtae.com/news/why-are-gas-prices-so-high-in-pennsylvania/2564...
dont forget us....
http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/government/ph-ac-cn-gas-tax-122814-20...
I had to mentally downshift to read those three sentences.
"Low gas prices are good, but real low prices are bad. I will use my pen and phone to put a 50$ Special Tax on each barrel of oil. It is the Patriotic thing to do! As oil drops, the Tax will float, always creating 100$ a barrel oil. But only here in the United Soviet States."
What about that inflationary money printing?
But, but, but!!!
"What about that inflationary money printing?"
Ever notice the DJIA?
Yes, stawks are fed from a separate, contained air pressure pipe.
Everything else is fed off a common pipe which is now shut off.
What about that inflationary money printing?
...that the FED paused a couple months ago?
I guess you haven't noticed that the stock market, treasuries and most things edible are a tad inflated.
which is making the dollar flood retreat like a megatsunami wave after the misdeed in the whole world, starting with Russia, Turkey, etc. etc.?
Next round of QE.
The Fed is stuck QEing until bankruptcy.
US Fed originated the Japanese money printing model. It's following the same path.
Yes, the "QE" bubble goes down, so does PMIs, Baltic Dry, Oil, Greece, Russia, etc.
Nat Gas is up 5 percent today. This is some funny shit.
It's cold out.
Everybody turned up their thermostats - or their furnaces ran more to heat.
As soon the the US Shale business ramps down, we will have a supply side rally.
Word up....you know how much we love high oil prices.
Those working mandatory 29.5 hr/wk jobs really love it.
"You're happy today, Munchkins! Good round of golf!"
"Yeah, Reggie! And, Oblowme Care has thrown millions out of work! Oil is crashing and it will wreck the economy! We will have to have a Soviet!
"Frank would be soo proud of you, baby!"
"What a great New Year! And, tons o' folks will have to pay ME OblowmeCare penalties! The idea of millions standing around fire barrels makes me giddy!"
I'm bettin $5
That's really all it costs....but you've got to figure out what to do with all the silver byproduct.
As soon as it stops going down, it will go up. Or sideways.
The world economy has finally spoken. The FED can do shit about it.
...but they will try anyway...
Bottom chart is the "Yellen spread".
(Not to be confused with something to dress up a sandwich)
Imagine Yellen spreading eagle.
SWEET JESUS TAKE ME NOW!!!
There's a good trade waiting to happen in oil somewhere, but going from the charts alone suggests that bottoms aren't really hammered out until near the end of Q1. No need to jump the gun here, going for the absolute top/bottom is an ego exercise more than anything, and there really is no need to do it. Oil will let you know which way it's heading soon enough. Fear (of missing out) is the mind killer.
I would not be surprised if we see two years of low oil prices
Nor I Ghordy, but the smartest thing I can say at the moment is 'I don't know' - at least I won't be wrong. Normally shitty demand would suggest that oil prices struggle or continue to slide, but with such a politicised commodity in a vastly manipulated market who can really say any more?
elegant, wise, succint and I agree
...and what market is NOT manipulated? I find myself saying that 'I don't know' and second-guessing myself on all of my investment decisions these days.
Once panic sets in, "they" (those trying to pull all the strings) will quickly lose control. And even then... nothing a couple trillion more in QE can't probably quell....
Chinese demand goes down + Arabs not cutting production = Oil price to the abyss.
But everything is rosy good in the USA so the price should be going up right? Looks like were going into a prosperous depression.
Fed has to get oil and TSY yields way down in order to raise rates, otherwise the whole train comes to a screeching stop.
Buy puts on OAS and WLL. $40's in oil will cause a massive panic wave in the shales and those two will get destroyed.
Duh! That's why it's going there - they want the little guys OUT!
Proving once agains that Martin Armstrong's Artifical Intelligence timing system is a complete fraud:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/09/crude-oil-the-future/
But that is okay. As of 5 days ago he said it would now go to the mid thirties. He is chasing it down now after suffering 50% losses. Because that is what he does. He chases prices at extremes like everyone else in the herd. He is just an emotional herd trader selling subscriptions to garbage advice to cover his losses.
talk about timing, July(when Armstrong published that piece) was exactly when oil started the long slide.
We're in a deflationary spiral, don't try to fade this back up just yet!
You forgot the word "death".
False flag CIA op in the planning at any number of choke points. Straits of Hormuz seems a good bet.
Putin is fighting back. Russia has plenty of oil and gas. Do not tease the Russian bear...
tease my ass... half of Russia's govt budget comes from oil & gas revenue, which has just dropped in value by 50% and isn't heading back up anytime soon... their reserves are on a three year run rate as we speak... tease nothing, the bear got kicked right square in the nutz
The bear turned out to be a pussy.
TWENTY DOLLARS
I don't agree with you on much but you made a very nice call on oil prices crashing.
I'm just wondering when the dead bodies will start to float on the wrong side of this trade?
Next call:
S&P between 300 and 600, maximum 800, by December 31st, 2015
$US 50 bbl is the psychological barrier... if that gets breached for any length of time, look out below...
edit: nat gas at $US 3.15 MMBtu... the only thing on the board that's up...
Finally got that full-blown cold snap in the US to drive up nat gas.
I wouldn't get my hopes up for crude. Time to decouple....
This really is The Greatest Depression ...
The great depressioners, just does'nt have the right sound.
There has got to be panic with the oil patch people...Idon't give a fuck what they say ...
Absolutely. WTI will be in the 40ies in a couple of hours. Full blown panic!!!
Oh and this is early in the morning, when over the last weeks at this time of the day WTI and Brent were comfortably in the green....
The bottom will be in when Putin says yes to a GS/JPM ass fucking.
When you have hundreds of these:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russias-fast-and-illusive-topol-m-balli...
And tens of thousands of tons of this:
http://eastafro.com/Post/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Gold-24.jpg
As well as the world's largest supply of energy,
you're pretty well protected against being ass-fucked.
Is this price drop all "paper crude" & derivatives?
Is anybody buying physical crude at these prices?
*confused*
peak oil is here..the price is what is wrong.. there is a big lack of oil supply ..no really ..we ran out of oil .
more people every year = less consumption of energy, so todays price says, demand goes down with more customers , is what the price says..
somebody is wrong
The only peak oil we hit is peak oil consumption. I am pretty sure the mantle of the earth is composed of oil anyway.
The vast pressures inside the earth and chemical mixtures create oil.
Just dont use it faster than it is made.
Demand is desire coupled with ability to pursue. At $147 a barrel more could afford to fill up in inflationary 2008 than today at $50. That's peak oil for you - oil depreciating fast, yet nowhere as fast as the value of the human worker.
you don't know what peak oil is...
"you don't know what peak oil is..."
no, I do not know WTF you think it is..a big difference.
well here let me help you...
"peak oil" means you have a combination at a point in time of:
- peak extraction
- peak demand
- creating a peak supply gap
- resulting in peak prices
for the third bullet, peak supply gap can be amplified via supply chain manipulation, resulting in higher peak prices than would normally be experienced under traditional supply/demand swings
most "peak oilers" here think that only extraction limits matter... current pricing is telling you in no uncertain terms that a) peak extraction isn't a constant, and b) demand and comex manipulation have as much an effect, if not more, on price...
so, there you go... I've posted this multiple times and I'd wager most here would vouch for me on that... no one's going to read all that I post but you can be certain that on this definition I haven't wavered...
post, I agree, not sure how other posts here are in conflict with your post. perhaps you are just more concentrated on comex and world market makers as benefiting from it..seems little differance otherwise.
much of the focus is on the finite nature of the resource (oil), which is true for sure... if there is little demand, however, as an extreme example, then a resource's finite nature may be effectively "infinite" from human time scale perspectives... all factors need to be considered...
derivatives
Congratulations.....it's the secret word of the day. Don Pardo....tell him what he's won.
Jamie: Thanks for coming, congresspersons. We sorta...went wild with oil derivatives.
Lloyd: Yes, and the price crash in oil is going to make Lehman look like child's play.
Jamie: So we need you to have the taxpayers cover our losses.
Lloyd: Here are your envelopes. Now, get out there and vote bailout!
Why were we utilizing expensive and envirometally hazardous Fracking if oil is so plentiful as to produce under $2.00 gal gas? If there is a glut of fracked oil produced at $70 a barrel why sell it at 50? Why open a big battery plant for Tesla in Neveda if oil is now plentiful and cheap. Forget about wind mills and solar. Seems to me this is a total game changer. Maybe Abiotic oil is for real. Forget about electric cars gimme a Hummer. If cheap oil is a reality why is the Govt. not celebrating this and asking people to utilize the new CHEAP energy to create industry and buy motor homes, boats and SUVs? Very hard for business to capitalize on this if they do not understand what is behind it(except airlines). Right now no one trusts what is happening.
David Stockman does.........
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-30/commodity-prices-are-cliff-divi...
Am I sensing a blackhole in the derivitive complex. Guess we won't no until we get the bill.
"Right now no one trusts what is happening"
Well said hotrod...this is the nexus which will eventually destroy the system--the pervasive lack of trust, endemic throughout all things financial. Manifesting itself initially between the major players, this contagion will quickly spread and the rapidity at which it creates critical mass will be breathtaking.
It's why the big banks wanted derivative protection a couple of months ago.
Kaboom! Dervative mess.
New 5.5 year low for crude at $50.63. At this rate we could be at the $42 target in a matter of weeks. See the monthly:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
oil now priced at $650 gold, keep cheering.
I'm in hand over fist at $40 a barrel. Any lower than that and the world explodes.
USD rises :10-20% with major currencies.
Yuan rises.
what does this indicate? World economy slowing down with cheap Chinese exports becoming costlier. Bilateral Yuan swaps drying up dollars in world trade and demand for Yuan increasing every day.
Chinese Imports are now more expensive - China will slowdown further dropping oil demand even more.
thoughts?
QE4 To the rescue once the Market drop another 15%. But the next QE will be different..... I am hearing it will be a Federal tax cut.
Pumping oil is not an easy bidness. Thank your lucky stars that somebody out there is drilling for it so it is available for you to be able to have tomatoes from Mexico at 5 dollars per pound.
If you have an ounce of gold that can be cashed in for 1100 dollars, pay the premium, and oil is 50, you can buy 22 barrels of oil. An unheard of value for your gold, if you want to compare gold to oil and what you get, oil is by far and away the bargain of the century. The only way you can compare it.
I suppose when it was 10 dollars in '85 and gold was at 327, you could buy 32 barrels of oil with an ounce of gold.
As far as the value of an ounce of gold is concerned versus the price of oil, gold is a good investment with a healthy return on the value of real goods.
If oil falls to 40 and gold remains at 1200, your gold will buy 30 barrels of oil. A bargain.
At 20 and gold remains at 1200, you'll be able to buy 60 barrels of oil with that one ounce of gold. A steal.
2520 gallons of oil in 60 barrels for 1200 dollars or just over fifty cents per gallon.
OIL will find temporary support soon but it won't last. There is still a long way down before this slide is over...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/oil-light-sweet-crudeelliott-wave-upd...
Oil was $20 not too long ago.
$100+ is what happens to the price of oil when it is being being run up by financial speculators with nothing better to do with the free money they're forced to "invest" -
Spike down to $20?