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Bild Warns German Govt Fears Greek Bank Runs, Financial System Collapse; Prepares For Grexit
It has been a busy few days for Germany. In the space of a week, they have warned Greece "there will be no blackmail," adding that a Greek exit from the euro was "manageable," only to hours later deny (clarify) these comments. This was then followed up with beggars-are-choosers Syriza demanding any ECB QE must buy Greek bonds (or else) - which Germany has flatly ruled out - only to see today that Syriza is practically guaranteed to win a "decisive victory" at the forthcoming snap election. So it with a wry smile that we note Bild reports tonight that the German government is preparing for a possible Greek exit, warning of financial system collapse, bank runs, and huge costs for the rest of the EU.
Germany has been flip-flopping (as Reuters notes)...
Der Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday that Berlin considers a Greek exit almost unavoidable if Syriza wins, but believes the euro zone would be able to cope.
Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said on Sunday that Germany wants Greece to stay and there are no contingency plans to the contrary, while noting the euro zone has become far more stable in recent years.
As the euro zone's paymaster, Germany is insisting that Greece stick to austerity and not backtrack on its bailout commitments, especially as it does not want to open the door for other struggling members to relax reform efforts.
But now the rhetoric is heating up...
Germany is making contingency plans for the possible departure of Greece from the euro zone, including the impact of any run on a bank, tabloid newspaper Bild reported, citing unnamed government sources.
The newspaper said the government was running scenarios for the Jan. 25 Greek election in case of a victory by the leftwing Syriza party, which wants to cancel austerity measures and a part of the Greek debt.
In a report in the Wednesday issue of the paper, Bild said government experts were concerned about a possible bank collapse if customers storm Greek institutions to secure euro deposits in the event that Greece leaves the zone.
The European Union banking union would then have to intervene with a bailout worth billions, the paper said.
* * *
Open Europe asks has the balance of power in a Grexit shifted?
We have always argued that a Grexit would be painful for both the Eurozone and Greece, but relatively more painful for the latter. As such, it has always seemed unlikely that Greece would unilaterally seek to exit the euro. This still seems to be the case, though there have been internal shifts. As we noted in Part 1, the economic and financial contagion from a Grexit could likely now be more easily contained. This allows the Eurozone to take a harder line with Greece, not least since giving into SYRIZA, will send the message to Podemos and others that fiscal discipline etc is fair game.
So the Eurozone may be less nervous about Grexit and feel it has more reason to stick to the rules as it has laid them out, which may harden its negotiating stance. Equally though, Greece may have more reason to think a Grexit could be economically manageable, which could encourage a SYRIZA-led government to stick to its guns more firmly. This to us suggests the clash could be bigger and the negotiations more difficult this time around. Ultimately, though – with hundreds of billions of euros and the political project of the euro at stake – it still seems likely someone will blink and a fudge will be on hand as is usually the way in Europe. Allowing Greece to remain inside the euro for now.
* * *
Greek stocks were closed on Tuesday (but ETFs in the US were notably lower) as Greek bond prices tumbled...
And if Germany is 'preparing' for Grexit, then maybe its 5Y Greek CDS they are buying?
As we concluded previously, the consensus can certainly forget the ECB announcing public QE at its next monetary policy meeting on January 22, which will be followed just 3 days later by the Greek national elections. In fact, things in the coming weeks and months may get very ugly, fast depending on how things in Greece play out.
So after 3 years of kicking the can and pretending it is fixed, suddenly everything that is broken in the Eurozone threatens to float right back to the surface, leading to another showdown when photos such as this one become a daily occurrence.
The only question is whether this time anyone will believe the rhetorical "whatever it takes" threats uttered by the one central bank which for the past 4 years has proven it is utterly incapable of acting, instead chosing to talk each and every day, a strategy that has worked brilliantly, until now.
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Get your popcorn ready.
don't you get the feeling this was not unforseen?
no shit.
Round trippin' those bonds and the CDS since June made a lot of money if you already knew who was gonna be declared the winner of the Greek elections back in May.
b'bye euro! don't let the door hit you on the ass.
nothing will happen, they cannot exit, this is open path for others and multi independence, will u fucking understand some day the system IS NOT ALLOWED TO CRASH. partial bank failure is something, but you cannot kick shitty country outside just to stay safe yourself because if you do so you have to put in your brain that EU is an accumulation of weakness that never set a strong whole. they have to support the bad ones, if they kick greece outside of euro zone they have decades of construction anihilated, this is not possible, wasn't been studied before, it has been recently, but it is not allowed.
all this is fear mongering to make movement on markets to provok some stimulus, nothing else.
panik in media is banking diesel.... no more
you correct-pandering for easy money underwritten by the ptb that make money from the status quo. now if greece had something to offer the world(surplus) well that would be a, opps not the case, hence this waste of time discussion. greece stays and plays the game for more easy money. this guy just needs to be paid more to shut the fuck up and flip flop...
I'm sure PM Papapoopolous will not miss a meal ... same with all the Oligarchs there. It's the Mildle Class people there who face the blunt reality.
Grexit 1 was so bad I don't want to see Grexit 2 movie
Grexit 1 was so bad I don't want to see Grexit 2 movie
Are we all assuming TPTB want the Euro to succeed?
A super-crash will allow them to consolidate more countries into fewer currencies.
Contagion would spread to the US banks (Fed).
The result of a super meltdown could result in the NAU: Canada, US, Mexico under the "Amero" joined to the Euro, in order to fight off the Yuan/EEU.
so, if new mexico would leave the USA the dollar would disappear and the USA would fall apart?
Nah
nothing much will happen if greece leaves
The Cyprus dry run wasn't allowed to happened until fixed term bonds payable to French and German banks had exppired. Are there similar Greek bonds held by the banksters? When do they become due?
thanks for the warning ... fuckers.
Yup, bet there are not many Greeks with a positive balance in the bank. Its all safely in cash Euros.
No 500Euro notes left in the rest of the EU.
Is Jiffypop okay? Not a fan of the microwave shit.
Jesus Christ guys, Bild is a fucking German TABLOID! You folks are quoting tabloids now? What's next, a merger between ZH and KWN?
Didn't you see the movie "Men in Black"? You always check the tabloids.
P.S. Jesus Christ is not well represented/nor respected in these Euro affairs, JMO.
nein nein nein nein nein nein
As much as I'd like to see a grexit occur, with an EU collapse to follow, if there's one thing I've learned the past 5 years, it's that real events are not forecasted. We will not have MSM telling us all about the potential risk or covering the story like a sporting event.
When I see this, I know it's all theatre and will amount to nothing.
Regrettably I agree.
That being said -- this could shake stuff up -- and having to guarantee Greek debt to a few key banks in France and Italy is still going to cost hundreds of billions.
Who is going to take that onto their balance sheets and who is going to provide liquidity?
the discussion in the ZH comments regularly goes in the direction of... wishes
"As much as I'd like to see a grexit occur, with an EU collapse to follow..."
first, as usual: GreXit would be about the eurozone, i.e. the monetary club, not the EU, the trade club. The two things are completely separate
second, as usual: a greater majority of Greeks don't ask for GreXit. The only one damn thing Greeks agree on is that they want to keep the EUR (and no, a discussion like in the UK about leaving the EU is not even contemplated, in Greece)
third, even Syriza is talking about the debt, not the currency
so let's have a look at this debt. The Hellenic Republic has a sovereign debt of somewhere around 170% of GDP. Which, if you don't look at Japan, would look quite unsustainable
who are the creditors? Well, the Troika is the major creditor, for three quarters of it. Yes, the IMF, the ECB and the the EU (via stabilization funds which are actually German, Finnish , Dutch and so on) are the creditors for a Greek sovereign debt around 130% of GDP, with many others, including banks, private investors and so on making out roughly 40% of the GDP
how much interest do the creditors charge? Well, here it starts to become interesting. The Troika charges... nothing. Until 2023. I repeat: the EU/IMF/ECB creditors bailed out Greece with a sizable package that amounts to 130% of Greek GDP and charge nothing until 2023 for it. The remaining 40% "legacy debt" is with the interest rates of the normal sovereign bonds
why is interest important? It is because it is a fact that debt breaks the debtor only when interest service is too high. I can owe one trillion, if my interest payment is zero... it does not hurt me. The generally accepted level of "too much" - for a sovereign - is around 25% of it's budget
why do you mention the budget? because it's all about the budget. And national pride, but later about that. What is the eurozone? An alliance of sovereigns that want to share a currency and agreed to have balanced budgets for that. The two things can't be disentangled, it is and always was the scope of the EUR. The request from the Troika is for Greece to balance it's budget (as per treaties of which Greece is signatory). Since Greece has only to service a debt equivalent to 40% of GDP, it was deemed as possible. In fact, the 2015 budget, for all that the Greek Parliament passed it "in defiance to the Troika", is quite balanced
why do you mention... national pride? because for many "firebrands", in Greece, in Germany and so on, all this is, increasingly, a matter of national pride. Here I leave the facts and enter personal commentary, then a story of betrayal or trust becomes quite emotional instead of factual. I maintain that there are factions among the Northern Europeans that feel repeatedly betrayed by Greece, while in Greece there is a feeling of betrayal from the political establishment, the "oligarchs" and the Troika of IMF, ECB and EU northern countries
Recently Dimitri Papadimoulis brought it to imho an excellent point: even for Syriza, the goal is/should to bring Greece back to the peerhood of the european nations, to restore Greece as a "normal member of the community, of the same standing and with the same rights as the other EU members" (my traduction). Which means an affordable debt and a balanced budget coupled with an economy that finds it's path back to competitiveness
And this is the real knot of the thing. Greece has many problems, but talking about complete fabrications, wishes and speculations don't help Greece. I find it very unfortunate that many discussions go around the above facts. We are here in the eurozone all citizens of our european sovereign nations. We want them to be proud, and be proud of them
Greece has the damn right to be part of any club we set up, as well to leave any of them if Greece wishes so. That's the spirit of both EU and eurozone
Syriza has the damn right to address the debt question during the election campaign. The creditors have an understandable irritation that this question is being addressed now, in 2015, instead of waiting for 2023, then this damn "can-kicking" exercise has some tactical merit. Samaras... well, even he has some right to put it in a GreXit manner, then there is a need for the Greek electorate to understand that the european partner's goal is to keep Greece in the alliance... sofar Greece wants it. And wanting the EUR means... wanting balanced budgets
Once Greece is on the path of balanced budgets... well, then debt would have to be addressed. No question about that. Though... well, there is again the question of interest, then it's debt interest service that makes debt sustainable or not . What kind of interest would be charged after 2023? Does that debt have to be serviced at all? Can't it be just canceled? No, the answer would be no if posed now, with the very first balanced budget not even a few months old. (Of course the IMF will want to get it's part back)
so the real question in the long run is this: balanced budgets or not. cue in the discussion about Austerity or Not
note I haven't addressed neither the damn Vampire Squid Firmly Wrapped Around The Face Of Humanity nor corruption nor anything else too controversial, or so I hope, then in the last years I've upset many proud Greeks, like Taraxias, to which this rant is dedicated
TL:DR -
If only Greece would balance their budgets everything would be fine.
Ghordo -
The problem is, the monetary culture in Greece is *not* running balanced budgets. Balancing the budget = Austerity. Thus, the lifestyle that the Greeks got accustomed to (previous by printing Drachmas and thereafter by borrowing money) is at an end. The Greek government must maintain a balanced budget, and the election this month is whether the Greeks, as a people and a culture are willing to accept this required change in their lifestyle (imposed on them by the EMZ) or if they would rather do their own thing.
One thing is certain -- within the EMZ, Greece can no longer live outside its means. The question is will Greek society accept this, and if not, which would they rather have? The EUR or the print and spend mentality they had before. They cannot have both. Its one or the other.
I was thinking that if I could go back in time I'd choose a new nick for ZH: Smaug. And then, I'd call you Bilbo Baggins ;-)
I've spent a sizable portion of this morning to write the above comment. But your theory of monetary culture has so damn few legs to stand on that I refuse to even contemplate writing a similar comment, so I'll only give you a few things you might want to research yourself
your theory goes back to the 19th Century, and it's firmly rooted in a special moment in history: the very first time northerners had the (economic) upper hand on southerners, in Europe. Max Weber and others found the source of it in Protestantism and it's industriousness, others point to coal and iron ore resource placements, and others point to inflections in the discovery/trade empires
fact is that northern europe was one the poorest, most backward regions of the whole world for most of history until the 16th Century
my point is that: when we europeans talk about cultures like the Greek... we usually don't talk only about recent history. as a reminder, Greece was under a military dictatorship until 1974. whatever you are saying about Greeks, you are talking only about something that is so recent to be in living memory (of yours truly). And this is too small a segment of time and history for us europeans. do you know how Greek bugdets and debts looked like in the 2'500 years before 1974?
Perhaps that nick name isn't the best thing -- as I'd just shorten it to Smug.
Ghordo, no one cares how the Greeks spent money 2500 years ago, just like no one cares how much the Prussian Monarchy spent building the tram lines in Königsberg. Why? Because it is completely irrelevant to today's issues. Moreover, the 16th Century ist NOT recent history.
I have explained to you how average temperatures affects the spending and saving habits of those who are subjected to said temperatures. (Warmer temperatures lead to less productivity, and lower temperatures make individuals more productive.) It is not my fault you choose to ignore this to support your own conclusions. You have made it apparent here over the years that no amount facts, and irrespective of what the circumstances may be -- you cling to the € and the Blue and Yellow flag. You always choose ideological arguments that support these two institutions, irrespective of how financially and intellectually bankrupt they may be.
Yes, Northern Europe was a backwater until the industrial revolution, at which point (since the 17th Century) has made the south of Europe, for the most part - irrelevant. The industrial revolution allowed the more productive north to outcompete the less productive south. The South then compensated by habitually devaluing their currencies. It worked well until the Euro. Now nothing works as it should.
Greece has been an economic cesspit for a few thousand years now. Shoot, even their "laziness" is in the Bible -- Old Testament mind you. The Greeks have been managing their economic roughly the same way for quite a while now. Shoot -- spend 30 seconds googling problems the Greeks had fighting the Italians and Germans in WWII. The government had to buy second hand weapons that were dated for the time because they were so broke they couldn't afford the new stuff. The idea that Greeks managed money well 2500 years ago, and thus should be a part of the EUR today is one of your more egregious arguments I've read on here in quite some time.
Most of this motion appears to be each party aiming for a different side of the can, in an attempt to push it down their road of choice. No real reforms or overhaul of tax system are being discussed, only MOAR debt and MOAR debt haircuts.
As for Lagarge's List - 4 convictions so far. At least that beats Wall Streets record of zero indictments for the 2006/7/8 mortgage frauds. Well at least there are 6 !! people on audits now ; it will be a short 15 years for them to work through their caseload:
http://www.dw.de/greek-auditors-place-wealthy-depositors-under-general-s...
And I can't help but recall the Stiglitz (mainstream argument) vs Hendry (fraud argument) at 2:00 : "Greece is a Cheat's Charter":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAAnV-AolTI
FYI, Here's the direct quote:
12 One of themselves, even a prophet of their own, said, The Cretians are alway liars, evil beasts, slow bellies. 13 This witness is true. Wherefore rebuke them sharply, that they may be sound in the faith;
Titus 1 King James Bible
LOL. does it matter then that the very First Seven Churches of Christianity, i.e. Ephesus, Smyrna, Pergamum, Thyatira, Sardis, Philadelphia and Laodicea... were in Greek cities? Yup, Early Christianity was a very Greek affair. Even the Book of the Apocalypse, which sometimes seems to be the only Gospel for some ZHer's, was written by a Greek, on the Greek island of Patmos
the New Testament? written in Greek, and spread chiefly by Saint Paul, who was - of course - a Greek (with Roman citizenship)
"The industrial revolution allowed the more productive north to outcompete the less productive south"
then set up your theory on a paper and check if it's falsifiable. does your theory explain Belarus, Taiwan, Singapore, California?
" first, as usual: GreXit would be about the eurozone, i.e. the monetary club, not the EU, the trade club. The two things are completely separate "
sure, that's explain why on the 28 the 19th came into the game.... idiot....
Ghordius you make some fine points. +1. Having said that Greece is not the only one violating the treaty. Why should Greece adhere to a policy of balanced bugets when other EMU countries violate the treaty as well?
Sovereign countries that are doing well in the EMU do not want to continue to send their money to those that do not want to bring their budgets inline with the treaties. Fracturing continues to happen and the fiscal banking union proposed does not set well with these countries. Until the EU in general has consistent goals accepted in every country not alot is going to change. You cannot have France retiring at 60 when most of the producing countries have retirement set at 67. The problem is sovereigns want their cake and eat it too.
Most pushing for a fiscal union are in trouble. Germany and some others are always blamed for another countires woes because they are producing more then they consume. The USA headed down that path of worshipping the god of money and consumption. Im my small mind you must produce and manufacture items. Greece will continue down this road because it is easier to make threats then actually reform their system. Greece has not met one item they agreed to get bailed out. Most want to remain in the Euro because they know if they go back to the drachma hyperinflation will soon follow.
Of course Greece might well head East with the newly discovered oil and minerals discovered offshore. Hell even the USA may well bail them out for the rights to these discoveries as it is all about energy these days. Although you blame the triorka for all of Greece's woes you need to remember it takes two to tango. Their politicians knew what they were doing and most likely many EMU leaders knew what was going on. Greece is not doing austerity.
I don't blame the Troika (to the chagrin of many, here). And I'm avoiding the theme of corruption here because I have upset too often Taraxias and other Greeks. I put a lot of blame on the damn Vampire Squid, Goldman Sachs
treaties regulating the clubs of sovereigns are, imho, like the rules of a club of gentlefolk. note I don't want a damn policemen in the club. it should be a relaxed place where things are discussed, not blindly enforced with a stick and pepper spray. so I support the treaties, I support a sensible application of the treaties, and I support even exceptions where needed as long as the general principles are followed, but I'm against the "fiscal union" talks
France's thing with the retirement age is a question of the French budget. if they prefer to spend there and spend less elsewhere... it's France's business
meanwhile, Greece has a quite balanced budget for 2015, all things considered. and it does hurt. Austerity is real, in Greece, imho (nevertheless +1)
Some good posts here!
The Greeks wanted more socialism than northern Europe, it would seem.
Unless all these guys have the same work/social programs, somebody is always going to slack off.
The Germans figured out a way to dominate Euro-Land w/o using the Wehrmacht, but forcing Southern Europeans to adopt Northern Euro habits probably won't work, so Germany will have to bail them out again or suck it up.
It is sort of a replay of WW2. The Italians were constant screw-ups, Franco would not play the part cast for him, and then Mussolini went AWOL and invaded the Balkans requiring German backup, throwing off the Russian Invasion timetable.
Meanwhile, the Russians were adhering to the NAZi-Soviet Pact, shipping material to Germany and minding their business.
This may be the opening for Russia to enter the Balkans economically.
The Greeks should be playing off the EEU vs the EU.
I have not had my Red Bull yet, so some of this may be disjointed, but there are interesting parallels with history here.
I believe the fate of the EU can be predicted using a far simpler model than the one you layed out above - as good as your posts are.
Complex systems of any nature whether biological, political, fiscal, mechanical, demand independent and autonomous segments to ensure the overall survival of the entire system. Some simple analogies are the triple redudant and independent systems on a modern jet or the sealed and isolated compartments of a large cargo carrying tanker.
You need delve no further that this. The EU will fail, it's not my guarantee, it's written into the very fabric of the universe. When once Greece's economy went to the dogs and affected only Greeks, now it risks bringing down the entire construct. There is no way of getting around this.
Europe had the right balance of culture, trade, freedom of movement, HAD being the operative word. A well engineered homogenous system will evetually fail, this is guaranteed. A complex structure like the EU which is a purely human construct and subject to all the vaguaries of human nature will be destined to spectacular failure.
The EU was a stupid idea and only possibly could have come from the mind of a true power hungry idealogical control freak.
With independent and autonomous countries Europe was always going to survive. The strong prosper, the weak fail but overall the region thrives.
This is now in peril.
Ghordius sorry for the comment on the Troika. Re-reading you did not blame them. Many here do.
Agree with you about France but Hollende wanted the EMU to support it originally. Has that changed?
I agree about the treaty thing but there does come a point in time when the adult in the room must step in. Greece is being squeezed in my mind. Originally they were bailed out when it was what 70 billion and now they owe 274 billion? Correct me if I am wrong here. I do blame this on the financiers. You invest you take on risk of losing what you loaned. Most of this so called money is really not there so why not just write it off.
I do not think the debt will be paid anyway. Just like any of our countries it will never be paid back. Maybe it is time for a huge debt write off globally.
Thanks Ghordius.
Those creditors in the 40 % group happen to be largely American ?
I don't have the data for that. I wonder, though, who holds the CDSs on this 40% of GDP debt. I suspect mostly hedgefunds on both sides of the pond
"The only one damn thing Greeks agree on is that they want to keep the EUR"\
When the REPO man comes calling, the poor bankrupt slob always wants to keep the car and the TV...
William Sheep only want what the MSM tell them they should want.
The scare tactics employed ( as in Scotland ) render Syriza to go along with KEEPING the Euro when they don't really give a flying fuck.
You say anything during torture ( CIA ) to get out of JAIL.
imho wrong narrative, WB7
poor Greeks want to keep their EUR stash. in cash. under the mattress or in Greek or even German banks
Greece, the sovereign nation called Hellenic Republic... it's demeaning to call it a "poor bankrupt slob". in fact... it isn't so
evidence: the credit it got from the Troika. or the fact that it can discuss an eventual default, pardon me, re-structuring of debt
The Greek economy has been ruined by distorted exchange rates (courtesy of the Euro) so that German manufactures can outsell locally produced goods in Greece. It's only by re-adopting their national currency on a floating rate basis that Greeks can rediscover that most goods need to be and must be manufactured locally. No, Globalisation doesn't work except for the banksters.
reposted here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-26/syriza-forms-coalition-governme...
I don’t know. I seem to remember some guy named Peter who was screaming about a housing collapse in the good old U.S. And then there were some guys on Zero Hedge that were talking about A.I.G. imploding. I wish the trust fund manager had listened. We would not have lost a little better than a million.
As far as tabloids go, Alex Jones warned us about the death of the Bill of Rights for years. Then the ACLU came out and said the same thing.
I suspect some folks in the aft of the Titanic thought things were getting better for a moment when the stern began to rise in the water.
Good logic, and a point I generally agree with.
However........odds dictate these morons will fuck up on accident and actually be right at one time or another and it's long overdue.
Greece 5yr CDS will be fucking worthless is the ISDA ignores the default so that it's bankser membro'ship don't have to pay for the protection they are selling.
That's what I would expect too.....
Its like the shady insurance company selling policies they know they will never pay out on. Just collect the premiums and skip town.
In the end, the Germans will give in to Greek demands. They cannot risk a Grexit. Greece might default on its debts (like Iceland) and its economy might improve (like Iceland). Then other countries would be sure to follow Greece.
Not too sure that the Germans want Greece in the EU for the long term. even though the FRG would have to eat I think about 80% of the defaulted bonds.
I think Greece if it were to exit the EU would have a better chance to climb out of their never ending depression where 30% of the population has turned to prostitution to make ends meet. The nation has a long history of poor governance, meaning the socialist overlay over Greek society regarding work and free enterprise versus open redistributionist policies.
30% are prostituting themselves? When it goes over 50%, which party pays?
The party of German tourists of course. Much closer than Thailand. Oddly, the Greeks seem to perform best when occupied by a foreign power.
Like everywhere else........it's not up to the population.
Several potentialities:
1. Shocking last minute turn out for [insert pro-EU party here]
2. Syriza blinks as Germany calls their bluff
Sorry, this is all smoke and no fire. We've seen this hyperbole before. We'll be discussing Grexit in the past tense much like Ebola when the furor dies down.....
"Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame... shame... uh... it means you can't get fooled again."
The EU fucked up. They should have "harmonized" election protocols to include Diebold voting machines, neatly avoiding situations like this.
This sounds more like a German exit than a Greek one....
They are blackmailing the greek people: If you vote for Syriza, we will take you the Euro away.
You know, I keep reading all this shit and wondering why Greece saying "we are defaulting" instantly means they're out of the Euro. It's up to Greece if they want to stay or go in any case. They could declare they're leaving (maybe) but there is certainly no mechanism to kick them out.
"You know, I keep reading all this shit and wondering why Greece saying "we are defaulting" instantly means they're out of the Euro. It's up to Greece if they want to stay or go in any case. They could declare they're leaving (maybe) but there is certainly no mechanism to kick them out. "
Greece cannot devalue 'to regain competiveness' because the rest of the Euro states don't want to debauch the currency endlessly. It won't just be done once. Greece will require devaluation as a regular policy tool...
THIS is why they feel they have to leave the Euro. The ECB/Germany thinks it will never be able to stop devaluing to try and bring Greece into 'competitiveness' with her neighbors..
Greece's more competitive EURO neighbors won't set up a perpetual wealth transfer mechanism that siphons funds from themselves off to less competitive EURO nations like Greece.
Greece doesn't want a one time bailout.
Greece wants the bailout that never ends; FISCAL/TRANSFER UNION, the equivalent of rolling national EIC, WIC, or disability payments...
This is what was planned for the EMU, that it is not a fiscal union, so each country is independent and can default while staying in the EMU. But finance hasn't seen it that way (see sovereign spreads), and their view has prevailed. For now.
That seems to be the model of governance chosen by all the major Western powers, with the Fed-US Gov't dictatorship at the head of the pack.
I watched this movie a few times.
Enter THE DRAGON
So much is broken....
Japan, Europe, China and underneath the media and government the US.
Every dog has their day.
There's an easy way around this problem. Sell their asses to Turkey.
How 'bout you sell your tara bubble butt to me and bounce on my bell end, bitch?
The Greeks were buns up, kneeling
The Turks had a growing feeling
Vlad was wheeling and dealing
I got another navy base now!
Stupids shouldn't have sold them all those submarines on credit. Hey maybe they have a sub repo man. Wait a minute aren't all repo men subhuman. Who said that? Is Greece going to default?
I wondered why futures were green
I'm flabbergasted that any Greek has any money in any bank at all. Of course, that could be said for anybody in any country, so I guess, question answered.
"If you want your drachmas.....you can keep your drachmas." Is that a Troika you're sporting there?
i have a friend over in greece and he is totally and completely broke
living at home with his mom
Greece? If you mention grease to most people, they would say it’s the gooey crap you put on bearings. The rest couldn’t even find it on a map. The total value of the whole f***ing country is 1/100 of AAPL. It can fall into the sea and nobody would notice.
What matters is the Fed bank and more QE. How low will they let the markets fall before they use an excuse like “Greece’ to intervene? And, will Faith in Fed be restored, or is it just rearranging the deck chairs now? Earnings are coming out and it remains to be seen if more mega-stock buybacks can paint lipstick on the pigs again. It won’t matter anyway, as growth is zero and that won’t change. There are no shorts left in this market, so the selling will never catch a bid once fear sets in. The wealthy will not hang around to give back the billions of $$ the Fed bankers have handed them, they will bail, then the little people will panic. The true fools will hang on all the way to Dow 7000. The largest debt disaster in history will be something to see... The bankers will of course,deny any wrong doing as the mobs with torches and guns start looking to place blame.
People who cannot find Greece on a map have No education.
I think the "fucking" should go with apple not Greece.
I think deep inside you are proud of apple and its slaves, after all it is ameeerrican.
ps. can i borrow your crystal ball ?
Speaking of bearings where is our resident bearing guy?? If he bailed, I'm popping the canopy..
As Nudelman said, "F*ck the EU".
The world would be a much better place if the EU disintegrates and nation states resume their independence.
Greece is not all about the money remember; It's of huge geopolitical importance to UK/NATO and hence the ' kid gloves ' will not come off for fear of Putin on the Ritz.
Correct.
1974 invasion of Cyprus by Turkey has lost the sympathy to the US by the Greek Right and Far Right.
They do still remember the Betrayal as they see it of the US.
That is iredeemable hatred. Now with Putin in charge in Russia plus him showing that he is an Orthodox Christian, that section of the population (conservative semireligious right) is lost for ever. That's why the USA is hoping that Tsipras that he professes atheism is a good enough bet. The problem here is that Tsipras had only very recently a 4% of the electorate.
If he mismanages the Greek national as well as international problems, he is going back to 4% immediately.
The USA, by the looks of it, is losing the Greeks for ever.
The recent alliance between the Greek government and Israel is seen as very odd in Greece, They cannot see the benefits. Assurances that Israel will help is seen as naive, as the Greeks never saw the Jews as good business partners, never.
An inrteresting point is made by friends that Greeks and Iranians (Persian) are the best of Business partners abroad in doing deals. Information about the past policies conducted by the West on these two ancient peoples is identical.
Russia has only to gain if they play it right.
These bullshit fake crises for country currencies get rotated around the globe like the fake crisis actors traveling to the next staged global publicized fear porn event. Who's up on the distraction headline schedule after Greece?
All of it brought to you in living color (ie. Ebola Green) by your criminal MSM brainwash programming whores
Granny Merkel is on her way to UK to debate with Banker boy Cambo to try give him some flexibility for the coming general election.
Come on Nigel Farage get your finger out and score some points and help rid us of these bankster cunts.
If the economic collapse arrives before the election in May, expect Farage and UKIP to do even better than their wildest dreams. We can only hope!!!
But Mr Fargage is an ex banker ....... 'metals' trader apparently.
Mario is ragging the Deutsche Bank to support QE (massive printing).
The German pollies know that is political suicide.The German pension funds,and others have now coughed up 250 billion Euros and it has gone down the gurgler.Perhaps if the Greeks had a few thousand tons of gold to pledge for security..
The Yanks went thru this in the 70's with Brazil.Loan more so they can keep paying a minimum payment on the never-never plan.Brazil chopped down all the Amazon hardwood forests and used them as exports to repay the debt (Wall street office panelling and boardroom tables).The cleared land was mined for gold and now they raise beef cattle.Nevermind that it was a huge sink for Co2,and a huge oxygen factory of triple canopy rain forest,as well as habitat for endangered species.And of course Brazil has many squadrons of f-16s,and other gear which sits around rusting,but looks good on the armed forces day airshows.
Actually the Greeks are correct.Some large chunk of the debt will have to be forgiven.
Good luck getting the German taxpayer to see things that way.....
Imagine if Greece turns to the Eurasian Economic Union....! too stretched to imagine? I reckon Turkey will be in there soon.
Hmmm....Russian Empire, Chinese Dynasty and Ottoman Empire all joining hands. Catherine would be drooling.
What if they joined IS?
Add some color to the mix
So when they said no blackmail? Does that mean bribery and extortion are still ok?
So Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says "Germany wants Greece to stay and there are no contingency plans to the contrary". If that was the case then clearly Germany and the ECB are not doing their job! There can be no doubt that every possible event had been discussed and planned for even before the euro came into being. This is clearly a bluff aimed at the Greek electorate. The Greeks should take no notice and do whatever they believe to be in their own best interest.
all those leftist party in south europe are Goldamn Sachs muppets. They re here to force Germany to accept the QE
Now that is a theory with some legs.. If only there were investigative journalists in the world to track the money..
Draghi looking umpleasantly naked.
Gabriel is now DE's mouth?
Where is the queen of austerity, these days?
not a word from mutti merkel.
what a bad decision she was.
I hate to tell you this but it is Germany that has defaulted on its obligations.
After all, the forced loans, the destruction of infrastructure, the stealing of the gold, the destruction of forests, the killing of close to 10% of the population due to hunger and war, has not been compensated for by Germany in respect of World War II damages in Greece.
Where Greece has stuffed up is by not giving the task of collection to Israel (for say a commission of 20%). The Israeli government is still collecting damages and apologies for its own people almost 70 years later.
I hope it will happen.
This will make TTIP obsolete. Kick out England as well and the EU world will be better.
Sorry mate, as the UK is one if the biggest NET contributors to the EU budget, if we go a large amount of EU commission money walks out the door, very painful.
The EU should be desperate to keep us in.
And the TTIP is a disaster heading all our ways.
By the way, Hans Wrner Sinn who is the German economist and president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and adviser to Merkel, is backing SYRIZA because he feels that its leader Tsipras is the only one to have fully understood the nature of the Greek debt problem.
Go figure that one out.
There is a simple explanation for this.
In German politics -- you cannot say "I am against the EUR as a currency" without being labelled a Nazi, which, when the Media runs with it, is the end of your career and credability.
Thus, Germans who hate the EUR and want to bring about its end support these neo-Marxist PIIGS politicans who would force Germany's hand to either ending the EUR, splitting it in half, or forcing Germany to withdrawl.
Expect people such as Sinn to support Podemos as Spanish elections near. I would also imagine that Sinn would support the Flemish independence vote as well.
Wow. Nice. Great info.
Following in the footsteps of Scotland, Veneto in Italy and Catalonia in Spain, and Belgium’s Flemish region may become the next to hold a referendum on independence. The Flanders area of northern Belgium has been claiming its own sovereignty for years, and if it succeeds, Belgium may be no more, along with its being the symbol of a united Europe.
Germany would be mad to leave the nicely depreciated Euro and replace it with a really strong Dmark.
Export suicide.
There will be bank runs? With this news why not right now. I swear people are dumb as stumps to leave their money with banks this late in the crisis.
Deutschmarks! Germany may well be the linchpin that leaves the Euro.
Their guilt over WWII will make them hang on, but enough periphery defaults and exits and they will be out of the Euro before France. France will hang on unto the bitter end.
Greece should exit the Euro and go back to the Drachma; no reason for them to suffer under the "austerity" (slavery) of Europe/Brussels Bandits/Wall Street Warlocks.
If people R convinced to work for slave wages... it would be a different game.
- Immigration is very high in EU
- Milan has Chinese Textile Factories that under cut the competition there for fashion clothes
- Propaganda is very effective
- Taxes & Fees from government are effective in getting people to work for lower wages, despite downward sticky wages
- Debtor Prisons, indebtedness, Criminals put in Prison, Shanghai sailors or immigrants and put them in sweatshop are effective in creating low cost labor
Who knows what the EU will permit. They seem to have disassembled Greece pretty effectively. Since much of Europe never industrialized with manufacturing... there are many Gaps in Capability and in Skills... but no shortage of poor people.
Guilt over WW2? Not for those who know that the tradtional WW2 narrative is BS. Let Germany join Russia in the Anti-Bolshevik Federation and roust the bolshevik money-changers once and for all.
Despite anyone's opinion about policies, Tsipras sounds as crazy as Republicans during debt ceiling talks in USA. He says he will renegotiate debt, but doesn't want to leave Euro. Then what leverage does he have. That is as stupid as Republicans saying that won't increase debt limit, but they won't allow government to default on debt. Obama saw right through that and Merkel is considerably smarter than Obama.
What will Tsipras do if Eurozone refuses to renegotiate debt? He has no option other than print Drachmas. The guy is delusional.
Its essentially a MAD financial moment.
The the EMZ capitulates to Syriza, then Pademos in Spain will want the samet thing. With a population of 60 million -- you can easily see the problem.
However, if they cut the Greeks loose -- the bailouts needed for the banks *again* will be in the hundreds of billions of €. The ECB would need a recapitalization. Who will foot the bill?
The Italians? The Spanish? The French? Where will they get the cash? The Germans with a working population of about 50 million peopel cannot pay for 300 million people's stuff. Shoot the Germans can barely pay for their own goodies.
Make no mistake -- this could be explosive.
It was Irrational Hubris.
- All of these Big Shots, Public Executives, Private Executives, IMF/WB
- Any Real Definition of a Bailout is a Grant of Money that you don't expect to get Back, these Big Shots Ignored the Risk for their Own Bonuses & Own Career Advancement
- We have a US & Euro Zone Glut of Untalented, Ignorant, and Least Business Savvy Leadership since World War I
I only say this since in our System of Competition, no one ever listed to the guys that sat there in the back with alternative suggestions, alternative solutions, words of caution, words about Risk, words that Identify the Power Players & Interest Groups, Words that Identify the People that will Profit
I've never seen a good education system, a good government system, or a good capitalist system... all these things are corrupted by powerful players and networks.
- We in The West have imposed these same rules on Emerging Nations, screwing them just like the Spanish Hacienda System did... this is the Chicken coming home to roost
- It is about time to crash this system of Elites, the problem is they never die and never go away... like the Bilderberg Group took in the Dutch Prince, Bernhard, and like the Royal Dutch Shell Company, and like the Hidden Involvement of the Royal British Family, and in the USA we take people from Ivy League Schools and they lead all our Institutions as a form of Crony Capitalism
Yes, Jodl?
Fuhrer, the Greeks are thinking about leaving the pact
Mein Gott! Have the Italians screwed up again?
I don't know yet.
Find the Plans for Operation Marita! I'll show those ingrates!
Or Operation Gladio. I don't know the code name for the plan in Greece. Maybe I have it here some place. Wait a moment.
Greece Staybehind Army
- Lochos Oreinon Katadromon, or LOK
- Operation (Red) Sheepskin
After the suppression of a pro-EAM uprising in April 1944 among the Greek forces in Egypt, a new and firmly reliable unit was formed, the 3rd Greek Mountain Brigade, which excluded "almost all men with views ranging from moderately conservative to left wing."1
When Greece joined NATO in 1952, the country's special forces, the LOK (Lochoi Orein?n Katadrom?n, i.e. "Mountain Raiding Companies") were integrated into the European stay-behind network. The CIA and LOK reconfirmed on March 25, 1955 their mutual co-operation in a secret document signed by US General Trascott for the CIA, and Konstantinos Dovas, chief of staff of the Greek military. In addition to preparing for a Soviet invasion, the CIA instructed LOK to prevent a leftist coup. Former CIA agent Philip Agee, who was sharply criticized in the US for having revealed sensitive information, insisted that "paramilitary groups, directed by CIA officers, operated in the sixties throughout Europe (and he stressed that) perhaps no activity of the CIA could be as clearly linked to the possibility of internal subversion."3
I have a great book on Gladio, I will have to find it today.
Was just going to post:
December 2005, journalist Kleanthis Grivas published an article in To Proto Thema, a Greek Sunday newspaper, in which he accused "Sheepskin" for the assassination of CIA station chief Richard Welch in Athens in 1975, as well as the assassination of British military attaché Stephen Saunders in 2000.
I once had a copy of Code Names and Project names for like all of Europe. Not sure how my files no longer show that saved in the normal place. Could be a scrubber was sent to my computer?
Where will they get the cash? Same place they've been getting it....the FED.
He's trying to reach those who are unhappy with austerity but not ready to accept a new currency yet. It's the same scheme Salmond tried in Scotland.
Sounds like a good ploy to get elected to me. Then who knows what he will do, in line with all past Greek leaders.
Germany can always leave the EU first.
The Ides of March are coming early to Mutti-land.
They be planned on January 25 in Athens-land.
As the Man said : As a Libertarian I am an honourable Man. Do not doubt my faith in the philososphy of Mises and Invisible hand. Do not question what the Market can unleash as Nemesis of dying continent. Amen.
When the Empire speaks from behind the tinsel curtain we all take heed of consequence...when the Rubicon is crossed by a populist vote and then the Continent has to choose between Empire and Republic; top down absolutism or bottom up "muddling along" in painful democracy.
And to come back to the Ides theme, I hear in my ear those memorable words resonate :
"for Brutus is an honorable man, so are they all, all honorable men"...
Honor and Brutus...Is the Greek Brutus an honorable man if he pulls the plug on the banks ?
A question to ask the ages...In Shakespeare's play it was asked by Marc Anthony to avenge the crime of "lese majesté" incurred on his boss-man Caesar.
Can The Greeks do the same to Europe and by ricochet to Empire and incur the wrath of Caesar of the world for having upset the cart of the golden, financial apples of the Hesperides, all newly printed in petrodollar and euro effigy of the FED's globally disseminated corn of abundance?
The future of an independent minded Europe lies in that interrogation.
" Can The Greeks do the same to Europe and by ricochet to Empire and incur the wrath of Caesar of the world for having upset the cart of the golden, financial apples of the Hesperides, all newly printed in petrodollar and euro effigy of the FED's globally disseminated corn of abundance? "
We can only hope so.
Heard this guy on the Radio: http://urbansurvival.com/
- He is a hands on builder, inventor, home improvement, self sustainment guy, who lives in Texas and has set up an energy generating system at his home.
- but he talks about economics and the US Political faults.
I'm just trying to add to the thread.
...incurred IN demise of...
greece: 'tis a mere flesh wound
italy: 'tis a mere flesh wound
france: 'tis a mere flesh wound...
Both sides have much to lose and will blink, some extend and pretend deal for Greece. In other words, the usual.
Is this a sign Jack Ma will start a German ‘Bride’ website?
Why is it such a bad thing for Greece to use their own currency? USA and Canada have their own currencies, but it doesn't seem to get in the way of trade.
greece owes money to powerful wealthy interests. the poor will be sold into poverty for the sake of the rich. same as it ever was...
Keep it simple…
God is judging Greece for their acts, mainly, Greek homoeroticism.
Maybe Greece killed off their slaves... or Ejected their Immigrants... Greece is not known for Manufacturing as far as I know. I think they are under developed like Spain, Like Portugal, and like UK after WWI.
Yeah, Greece is known for shipping. So I would assume they have Manufacturing for Ships & Shipping Containers. They love food, they love wine and liquor, they love fishing, they love Restaurants... expensive hotels, tourist trade, parties with dancing booze and food...
The universities are said to be corrupt with Tenure a big problems. Professors defend their own positions and suppress new ideas.
Sure they should have their own money. They should be allowed to have high social program costs if that is what they want. Demographics is a bitch. Goldman Sachs saw all of this long ago and committed fraud to let them into the EU.
- The EU, Germany, France, UK, Italy should Sue Goldman Sachs for cooking the books on Greece, Clearly
- Maybe it is an act of war for GS to Cook books on Greece
- Maybe NATO should Eject the USA based on GS Cooking the Books on Greece, Nothing like Fraud that destroys Strategic Alliances to require State Action...
- Idiots
I bet the guys at the levers had 'Eurozone deflation=moar QE' in their Pros column for slashing energy prices.
Bank runs into what?? US dollar accounts?? German euro accounts?? Russian rubles?? Turkish lira?? Paper commodities?? All will have little value cause its all paper or digital run by TPTB.
Its no co-incidence that PM's are being held back. So long as everyone is "ALL IN" fiat there nowhere to hide wealth. I expect a huge hit on PM's in the next 2 weeks.
"I expect a huge hit on PM's in the next 2 weeks.". Hope you' right.
There is no way Greece can stay in the EU once the election ns are over this month..
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/grexit-looms-possible-as-snap-electio...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/european-union-continues-to-suffer-fr...
Funny that you can tell people's geopolitical understanding - and likely origin - from what they post on this subject.
Some assume that the EU is the same thing as NATO.
Some assume that EU and NATO are both the US in different clothing.
Some say 'Capitalism' but the rest of their comment indicates they mean 'Oligarchy'.
Some focus on the elites who do not run for political offices, but rather fund those who do.
Others focus on the politicians themselves as the center of power.
Very interesting to see all the various models of social reality, along with each's inherent self-contradictions.
Very interesting.
For my part on the GREXIT...
* There is no such thing as a choice without an opportunity cost.
* People vote their wallet more reliably than they vote their political ideology.
* Given those two facts GREXIT is mostly dependent on the degree to which the rest of the EZ financial system has extracted itself from Greece.
* The Euro banks (particularly German banks) heavily invested in energy producing nations to the east. Low oil is hurting those investments as much (or more) than the political instabilities.
* Losses on both energy investments and on Greek financial investments are not simultaneously addressable.
I think the above means German capitulation on QE, and believe that the only stumbling block to EU QE is the identification of a theme that can successfully justify it to the German population. I believe the German bankers, and most of the political establishment are already on board. But at present it would be political suicide for German leaders to accede to QE.
Therefore I think that they will likely express that they cannot stop national CBs from printing Euros. The German Anti-Euro-ism will grow amongst populists. Where that leads politically, is anyone's guess. But there is a clear and growing divide between Germany's elites and population, that will be vastly exacerbated in coming months and years.
Why wait for a bank run when you can start one today!