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The Crunch Continues: WTI Tumbles Under $49, 10Y Dips Below 2%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Same slide, different day, as the crude crash continues, with both WTI and Brent tumbling to multi-year highs, below $49 and $52 respectively. This happened despite the news overnight that China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year, suggesting that China will focus more on fiscal policy than monetary easing, which in turn led to much confusion in the SHCOMP, which fluctuated up and down for the day several times before finally closing unchanged. There was no confusion about the stops slamming USDJPY, and its Nikkei225 derivative which tumbled 3%, sending Japanese Treasury yields to fresh record lows. Record low yields were also seen in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, France (and many other places), which in turn forced the US 10 Year to finally dip back under 2.00%. In fact, taken together, the average 10Y bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1% for the first time ever, according to Citi.

The impetus for today's panic bond buying was a report in Dutch Het Financieele Dagblad which says the ECB is considering three possible options for QE, all of which would naturally lead to lower yields, and further pricing in of well over 100% of any easing program the QE may launch (recall that Goldman and MS both said ECB's QE had been fully priced in as long ago as October).

The Euro weakened again overnight, and is now flirting with the 1.19 level after another month of disappointing Eurozone PMI, as the final Composite PMI missed expectations. From Goldman: The December Euro area final composite PMI came in at 51.4, 0.3 pt below the Flash (and Consensus) estimate. Relative to November, the composite PMI rose by 0.3pt. The weaker Final composite PMI was driven partly by flash/final downward revisions to the French manufacturing PMI. The most notable country developments in December were that the Italian Composite PMI weakened substantially by 1.9 (the other 'big 4' countries, most notably France, all recorded gains in December).

But while the deflation story is well known, the bigger problem for the mainstream media is that even NBC is starting to hint that stocks are sliding for all the "wrong reason", namely sliding oil. This crushes the narrative that lower oil is good for the economy, as it makes one wonder just why is the market dumping when it should be discounting a stronger US economy. As such everyone will again be following every tick of crude, and certainly Russia whose 5 year CDS jumped over 50 bps to about 610 bps. the widest since March 2009 as increasingly more are worried about Russia's default risk.

Meanwhile, jittery global stocks, lacking any visibility on the multiple expansion front (because EPS are now guaranteed to decline with the energy rout assured to crush the EPS of at least 15% of the S&P), continue to trade as a derivative of either the USDJPY or the EURJPY carry pair: whichever one is higher and/or igniting upward momentum at any given moment.

Some more detail on the overnight action from RanSquawk:

WTI and Brent crude future prices continue to decline which in turn, has weighed once again on global equities with the DJIA and S&P 500 posting its worst losses in 3 months as well as the Nikkei (-3.02%) printing its largest decline in 10 months. As such, this has filtered through to European bourses coupled with the negative sentiment in Europe with energy being the worst performing sector. The dampened risk appetite in the market provided support to USTs as the US 10 yield broke back below 2% for the first time since October 2014, prompting the German 10yr yields to also fall back below 0.5%. Analysts at IFR have noted that the correlation between oil and US breakevens shows that much of a rally is about expectations of lower inflation with the EUR 5y5y forward swap rate now down to a new record low.
In Eurozone related news, reports suggested that the SYRIZA party are not looking to trigger an exit should they win the Greek snap-election after the sources say that the ECB plan to discuss the implications of a possible Grexit tomorrow in their non-monetary policy meeting, although the news has had little impact on the market.

In Eurozone related news, reports suggested that the SYRIZA party are not looking to trigger an exit should they win the Greek snap-election after the sources say that the ECB plan to discuss the implications of a possible Grexit tomorrow in their non-monetary policy meeting, although the news has had little impact on the market.

In the FX market the USD-index (+0.15%) continues to trade near multiyear highs, however the greenback has been unable to lift USD/JPY to a sustained break of 119.00 as safe haven flows and sharp selling in JPY crosses persist from yesterday. Separately, UK Services PMI 55.8 vs Exp. 58.5 missed expectations causing GBP/USD to break 1.5200 alongside the relatively stronger USD. Oil related currencies continue to remain weak (CAD, NOK, RUB) amid the persistent pressure in crude prices as WTI has fallen below USD 49.00 this morning. Overnight, antipodean currencies outperformed amid better than expected Aus Nov. Trade Balance (-925mln vs. Exp. -1600mln (Prev. -1323mln, Rev. -877mln). AUD/USD consequently broke above 0.8100, dragging NZD/USD higher in sympathy to send the pair back above 0.7700.

In the energy complex, WTI and Brent crude futures continue to print fresh 5 and a half year lows as the USD remains near multi year highs. The move has seen WTI consolidate below USD 50.00 with Russian production reaching record highs adding to the oversupply in the market. In addition, early estimates for this week's DoE oil inventories show an expectation for a build of 750K compared to a draw last week of 1.754mln. Meanwhile, precious metals, Gold (+0.90%) is a major beneficiary of the Greek political instability and slump in energy prices as safe haven flows into the have helped the metal trade firmly above the USD 1,200/oz level.

In summary:

European shares remain lower with the tech and oil & gas sectors underperforming and autos, chemicals outperforming. Euro-zone composite PMI below expectations, as was U.K. services PMI. China said to accelerate $1 trillion of projects to boost economic growth. WTI crude falls below $50 a barrel. Global bond yields fall to record low. The U.K. and Spanish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Italian the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields fall; German yields decline. Commodities decline, with Brent crude, WTI crude underperforming and wheat outperforming. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing, factory orders, RBC consumer outlook, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI due later.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2012.7
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.6% to 331.9
  • US 10Yr yield down 3bps to 2%
  • German 10Yr yield down 3bps to 0.48%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.8% to 134.9
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1211.5/oz
  • Asian stocks fall with the Shanghai Composite outperforming and the Sensex underperforming.
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.8% to 134.9
  • Nikkei 225 down 3%, Hang Seng down 1%, Kospi down 1.7%, Shanghai Composite up 0%, ASX down 1.6%, Sensex down 3.1%
  • Euro down 0.27% to $1.1901
  • Dollar Index up 0.2% to 91.56
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 3bps to 1.81%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 3bps to 1.58%
  • French 10Yr yield down 4bps to 0.77%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 1.2% to 399.6
  • Brent Futures down 2.6% to $51.7/bbl, WTI Futures down 2.5% to $48.8/bbl
  • LME 3m Copper down 0.2% to $6131/MT
  • LME 3m Nickel up 0.5% to $15269/MT
  • Wheat futures up 1.1% to 595.5 USd/bu

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk:

  • The slide in energy prices continues to weigh on global sentiment as WTI trades through USD 49.00 to the downside
  • Weakness in energy names allied to expectations of lower inflation has sent US 10yr yields back below 2% for the first time since October 2014
  • Treasuries extend yesterday’s rally as global stocks decline, WTI crude extends its losses below $50/bbl;  10Y yield falls below 2.00% for first time since October.
  • Taken together, the average 10Y bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1% for the first time ever, according to Steven Englander, Citi global head of G-10 forex strategy
  • China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at $1.1t this year as policy makers seek to shore up growth that’s in danger of slipping below 7%
  • Markit’s euro-area composite PMI rose to 51.4 in Dec., less than expected, from 51.1; weakness will “add to calls for more aggressive central-bank stimulus,” according to Markit’s chief economist
  • ECB is working on discussion paper on different ways to execute govt bond buying, Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad reports, citing people familiar with ECB discussions
  • Growth at U.K. service companies slowed more than economists forecast in December, adding to signs the economy lost momentum at the end of 2014
  • About 18,000 people marched through Dresden yesterday night in the latest weekly rally backed by organizers who call themselves Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West, or Pegida. The group says it’s for stricter immigration and asylum laws, protecting “western culture” and avoiding “parallel societies” of Muslims in Germany
  • Two New York Police officers were shot while responding to a call about a robbery in the Bronx, leading to a manhunt for the suspects as the city’s officers remain on edge  after a pair were gunned down last month
  • Sovereign yields fall. Asian and European stocks slide, Nikkei -3%, FTSE -1.3%. U.S. equity-index futures decline. Brent crude, WTI fall; gold gains, copper little changed
  • Looking ahead, heading into the US session highlights include US Factory
    Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite both due at 1500GMT/0900CST

US Econ Data

  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, Dec. final (prior 53.8); Markit US Services PMI, Dec. final, est. 53.7 (prior 53.6)
  • 10:00am: Factory Orders, Nov., est. -0.5% (prior -0.70%)
  • 10:00am: ISM Non-Manufac. Composite, Dec., est. 58.0 (prior 59.3)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight event summary

It’s been a tough start to the year for risk assets as further steep declines in oil markets caused equity markets to take a sharp leg lower yesterday. A softer German inflation print and further falls in Greek assets, which we will touch on later, did little to help sentiment but taking a quick look firstly at market moves the S&P 500 closed 1.83% lower yesterday - its biggest one-day slump since October 9th and the first four-day drop since December 2013. With regards to oil both WTI (-5.03%) and Brent (-5.87%) tumbled to finish the day at $50.04/bbl and $53.11/bbl, respectively. Unsurprisingly, energy stocks (-3.99%) were the main underperformer, dragged down further by declines for large cap names including Exxon Mobil (-2.74%) and Chevron (-4.00%), although in reality all sectors finished the day in the red.

Just touching on the moves in oil, WTI briefly fell below $50/bbl intraday for the first time since April 2009 whilst the close in Brent below $55/bbl takes it to the lowest level since May 2009. Yesterday’s moves appear to be fueled by a report from the Russian Energy Ministry on the weekend showing production out of Russia rising to a post-Soviet era high and news that Iraq exported the highest amount of crude in December since the 1980s. As well as this, an article on Reuters noted that Saudi Arabia made significant discounts to its monthly oil prices for European buyers yesterday, offering the lowest discount since 2009. The article also noted that the region made its fifth consecutive monthly price cut to US refiners. We’ve previously highlighted the effects of the slump at the micro-level and yesterday we saw further evidence with Canadian producer Syncrude reporting a 12% decline in production in December relative to November. The latest data out of Baker Hughes also paints a fairly bleak picture, reporting that oil rigs were cut by 17 this week, the sixth weekly decline in seven and follows data which showed that the Q4 rig count dropped by the largest quarterly amount since Q1 2009. After taking something of a pause for breath over the holiday period, US HY energy names widened 25bps yesterday to a spread of 789bps – the widest level since mid-December.

Turning over to fixed income markets, the risk-off tone gave a firm bid to US Treasuries with the benchmark 10y yield closing 7.7bps tighter at 2.0337%. That level is now the lowest since May 2013 with the 10y yield now 27bps off the December highs. At the longer end of the curve 30y yields closed 8.9bps tighter to 2.5994, now the lowest since August 2012. The recent bull flattening has now compressed the spread difference between 2y and 30y yields to 194bps – the tightest level since January 2009. The US Dollar also benefited with the DXY finishing +0.33%, helped by further gains versus the Euro (more later). Meanwhile, credit markets ended the day weaker with CDX IG closing 2.8bps wider and CDX HY closing nearly three-quarters of a point lower. Elsewhere, it was a fairly light day data-wise with December total vehicle sales coming in a tad under consensus at 16.8m (vs. 16.9m expected). In terms of Fedspeak, the San Francisco Fed President Williams was reported in the WSJ saying that he sees no rush to raise interest rates, although reiterated a mid-2015 lift off would be a ‘reasonable guess’. Although Williams highlighted an improving US economy, he noted that he ‘sees no reason whatsoever to rush tightening’ and that ‘these financial stability concerns that people do raise are real things we want to take into account, but doesn’t argue for moving today or in next the next few months relative to, say, later in the year’.

Before we look at the remainder of market moves yesterday, refreshing our screens this morning bourses in Asia are following the US lead and trading lower as we type. The Nikkei (-2.74%), Hang Seng (-1.59%), Shanghai Comp (-0.34%) and Kospi (-1.85%) are all weaker whilst credit markets have tumbled with Asian IG 9bps wider as we go to print. WTI is largely unchanged. The falls come despite modestly robust data out of China and Japan. Services PMI’s in both China (53.4 vs. 50.0 previously) and Japan (51.7 vs. 50.6 previously) have climbed relative to November’s readings. Staying on China, Bloomberg reported this morning that Premier Li Keqiang’s government has approved for the acceleration of ¥7tn ($1.1tn) of infrastructure projects for 2015. The projects are part of the ¥10tn plan which due to run until 2016.

Coming back to yesterday, European equity markets didn’t fare much better with the Stoxx 600 (-2.15%) and DAX (-2.99%) both declining sharply. There were similar losses for energy stocks (-5.02%) whilst the Euro tumbled after a softer than expected German inflation print and further worries over Greece. Indeed, the single currency weakened a further 0.57% versus the Dollar yesterday to $1.1933, although touched an intraday low of $1.1864 which marked the lowest level for nine years. With regards to data, German headline inflation was significantly weaker relative to November (+0.2% yoy vs. +0.6% previously) and below consensus of +0.3%. Our European colleagues noted that the decline in energy prices was unsurprisingly a factor (-6.6% vs. -2.5% previously) although the substantial drop in food prices (-1.2% vs. 0.0% previously) was a surprise. Our colleagues also reported that annual inflation was +0.9% in 2014 (versus +1.5% in 2013) which marked the lowest rate of the last 15 years excluding 2009, although they expect that the core rate averaged +1.4% compared to +1.2% in 2013 highlighting the disinflationary effects of energy markets. Bunds closed weaker, the yield on the 10y benchmark bouncing off Friday’s record lows to close 2bps wider at 0.517%.

Wrapping up Europe, with the market weighing up the potential implications of a ‘Grexit’ there were further sharp moves in Greek assets yesterday with 3y yields widening 131bps to 13.5% and the ASE closing 5.63% lower – its lowest close since November 2012. With various conflicting reports out over the weekend comments from the German Social Democratic Party’s Poss yesterday saying that ‘Europe can’t afford a Greek exit’ were perhaps on the more supportive side. French President Hollande took a slightly different view however, saying that ‘The Greeks are free to choose their own destiny. But, having said that, there are certain engagements that have been made and all those must be of course respected’.

Looking at the day ahead, the calendar steps up a notch today with the final December composite and services PMI prints due for the Euro-area as well as regionally in Germany and France. We’ll also get the December consumer confidence reading in the latter as well as the preliminary services and composite PMI prints for the UK. Across the pond this afternoon, we also get the final PMI composite and services reading in the US, as well November factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing print.

 

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Tue, 01/06/2015 - 07:58 | 5627184 Truther
Truther's picture

Get ready to rumble folks. It isn't pretty.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:01 | 5627189 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I want to see WTI take a 20% hit in something crazy like a 3 hour window.  Get it down to $40 or so and then sit back and watch the chaos in the junk bond market. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:05 | 5627193 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Update: 10YR German bond yield at all-time low 0.467%.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:05 | 5627197 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

If we get within 7 days of the election in Greece this month with Syriza outside the margin of error -- 10 year bunds go negative. 

 

Guaranteed.  You saw it here first. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:11 | 5627203 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

What about the clucking chicken?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:14 | 5627211 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

Clucking chicken? Forget about the chicken...

What about that damn asteroid? 

I'm gonna need more Depends for the next few weeks. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:18 | 5627213 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

What about the clucking chicken?

 

We never forget a promise at Fightclub.......EVA.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:17 | 5627218 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I said if SHTF this year I'll live birth a chicken.  

Bunds going negative merely means that I get better Autobahns.  Enjoy your speed limits --- suckers!  

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:44 | 5627266 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Enjoy your speed limits --- suckers!  

 

Yeah, but you guys can't drive with a cell phone in one hand and a cheeseburger in the other, now can ya?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:47 | 5627273 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

You forgot the one gallon beverage wedged next to your crotch. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:20 | 5627224 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Shitting a live chicken is a rich bet. I had to make a mental note of that.  I think that is how the big boys play in Monaco. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:23 | 5627232 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

King.  

Player 1: "Here (thows keys on the table) thats my brand new i8 parked outside."

Player 2: "Hold on --- pushes -- red faced -- BOCK BOCK BOCK BOCK"

Dealer: "Sweet mother of God"  

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:24 | 5627234 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I think that is how the big boys play in Monaco.

 

Edward Safra found that out the hard way.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:48 | 5627274 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

clucking chicken clusterfuck

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:41 | 5627665 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

We clucked some folks...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:20 | 5627221 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Who the fuck would buy these bonds other then CBs?? Can someone explain this?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:21 | 5627229 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

German inflation is already more than 1%.  

After the TVM, 10 year bunds are already negative.  

What will it take to get the 10 year down to -100bps?  

Chaos in the world and Germany playing a big Switzerland without the EUR.  

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:01 | 5627190 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Gotta love it when a plan comes together.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:03 | 5627460 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

GZG,  We persist  , ... happy 2015.

Oh, and get SRTY (besides CEF, FNV and SLW).

Cheers.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:04 | 5627191 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dammit....I hate double posts....don't you?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:05 | 5627195 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

Don't hold back - I love your avatar. Only thing that still seems to make some sense these days. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:14 | 5627207 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

it's just a barbaric relic. those things have been around for many millennia, and so it's likely they will be around for further millennia

nevertheless, they don't drive anything. like their credit/debt siblings. production and trade do

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:21 | 5627225 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

I guess your plan didn't work out then.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:05 | 5627194 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Somehow this must be bullish for I see green shoots...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:16 | 5627214 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Absolutely bullish!

This is just a head fake, the markets are preping for a massive upside burst.

A little rain must fall before a rainbow appears! One must understand this when looking at the broader picture!

 

FUBAR

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:10 | 5627201 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

buy oil trusts ..52 week lows and divi's north of 10%, of course they will soon be BK, but where else can you get dividends north of 10%,, oh the humanity.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:13 | 5627204 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

tumbling to multi-year highs lows, below $49 and $52 respectively

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:26 | 5627847 29.5
29.5's picture

chart was upside down

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:13 | 5627205 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

can print trillions and oil below $50, keynesians win!!

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:15 | 5627212 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I wake up early everyday just to see if the market has been vaporized.  No way there is a smooth unwinding of this bullshit. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:33 | 5627251 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

yep...just BTFD. The printing continues.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:16 | 5627215 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Saudi-Arabia is starving the beasts! How nice of them.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:35 | 5627375 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

The Haus of Saud will be taken to the shit house when Citi is Lehman'd by the power that be.

Tit for tat, bitchez!

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:17 | 5627217 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"ECB is working on discussion paper on different ways to execute govt bond buying, Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad reports, citing people familiar with ECB discussions"

I suspect a "return of the NCBs", with tactical bond buying guaranteed to produce articles of megabanksters screaming murder

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:24 | 5627219 Ewtman
Ewtman's picture

The 10 YR yield is about to make a major turn around that will catch the "experts" completely by surprise...right after this short pull back.

 

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/10-year-u-s-treasury-index-yieldellio...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:04 | 5627741 thistooshallpass
thistooshallpass's picture

This trend is all too familiar. It looks like the last big lending hurrah before the bust. Mortgages are not given away - they can definitely be a pain in the ass to get - but the offerings have become so tantalizing again that it's hard for many to not get into the pot.. again.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:25 | 5627337 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree with this.  Prices will I imagine somewhat stabilize but the bottom line is most oil producers are in fact States so they will produce regardless of price or cost.

 

To me this collapse is just normalcy returning to the market...or "new normalcy" if you will as no other prices have reset at the actual marketplace near as I can tell. Indeed most prices I have seen have in fact risen which says to me the Fed needs to stay on course, normalize and tighten.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:32 | 5627247 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Keynesian PhDs are mensturating all over themselves over falling oil prices because the debt monster is killing their inflation monster. Lower gas prices used to be a good thing for the middle class and the economy. Now I don't believe my own lying eyes. Flying pigs, bitchez.

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:32 | 5627248 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"About 18,000 people marched through Dresden yesterday night in the latest weekly rally backed by organizers who call themselves Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West, or Pegida. The group says it’s for stricter immigration and asylum laws, protecting “western culture” and avoiding “parallel societies” of Muslims in Germany"

as often, it's places with less foreigners that are the most concerned about foreigners in the country. In Cologne, which has a sizable Islamic community, the counter-demonstration was huge, completely dwarfing the Pegida Monday-Evening-Demonstration

Ms. Merkel already expressed her concerns about popular support for Pegida, asking her countrypeople to shun movements which contain "elements of hate"

fact is that neither Merkel nor the CDU/CSU can do much about it. the problem is in the media and how people can be incredibly suspicious of foreigners... when they have few of them around. it's a bit of a very human conundrum. but there it is. something similar can be seen in Sweden. One city has a huge Muslim population, and all the other Swedes, particularly where there aren't Muslims are very, very concerned

and you can't use statistics in this kind of politics. numbers don't matter. it's atavic, tribal and part of human nature. I suspect 10% of us are born with a kind of "suspicion versus the foreign". But only the foreign to which we aren't exposed to. because then, it's not "them", it's "ah, those? yeah, most of them are ok. there is one I hate and nine with which I'm friendly"

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:35 | 5627256 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

protecting “western culture” and avoiding “parallel societies” of Muslims

 

Uh huh.....tad late don't you think?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:46 | 5627270 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you don't like measured, thoughtful responses, do you? we don't have Muslims all over the place, here in Europe. they are in "pockets", in particular, select cities

you find a lot of Turks in Vienna or Malmö or Cologne, for example, but you don't find them in several other cities, or in rural provinces. Or in Dresden

and it's where they are scarce that people are most concerned (yes, England and Paris are a bit special, here, but not much)

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:52 | 5627279 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

where they are "scarce" people can see what happened to those centers - they do not want the results of it where they live..get a clue.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:08 | 5627295 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ah, if this would be so, it would be easier, wouldn't it? then you could have a serious discussion on immigration. but it isn't so. just have a look on how anti-immigration parties tackle the thing. just have a look at UKIP, for example. how do they want to solve the British immigration problem? by exiting the EU, something that has just literally nothing to do with Asian or Islamic immigration

I did get a clue. and it's quite ugly. it's tribal fears politics, and does not solve anything. hell, it does not even produce laws that allow less immigrants, or of the "wrong" kind

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:23 | 5627329 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Why does it not surprise me you think this way? 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:09 | 5627477 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

and why do you not think it through? there are people who wish for less immigration, and even less of the "wrong kind". which is a political preference

but then, magic happens and they are catered to by political parties that don't decrease immigration in any way

only profit from that. but no, if I point that out I'm shooting on the wrong kind of people, eh?

you voted for "Allianz für Deutschland". what was the net impact? did they got even one single minor issue through for you? will they, in future? how? in coalition with who?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:38 | 5627260 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Probably because of things such as the 1400 girls molested in Rotherham stokes ' suspicions'.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:45 | 5627268 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

1400 was possibly an inflated number.....probably mid 1300's at most.

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:59 | 5627284 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Rotherham is an excellent example for this thing. It produces endless reporting that is avidly read by people that aren't in Rotherham

which has a population of 250'000, and this child abuse scandal is something that was going on since a decade, and the 1'400 number is an estimate

and yet... is there any serious reporting on it? very little. British media makes out of it whatever fills the pages

or, between the lines of some semi-serious reporting, you read sentences like "Police said they are currently dealing with 32 live investigations into child sexual exploitation in Rotherham and in the past 12 months, 15 people have been prosecuted or charged."

but no indication on the ethnicity of the victims, only of the perpetrators. strange, eh? or perhaps not

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:43 | 5627265 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Ghordius, give a warm hug and kisses to your islamic invaders, much easyier than keeping them out, just accept them ..until they cut your head off, rape your daughter, you get the idea..peoples were seperated from each other for good reasons. assimilation of islamics over short time periods will ignite violence..those pegida people are your canary in the coal mine, you have chosen to ignore the warning. well it is easy to do nothing, and who benefits from the invasion?? would be better you look at that.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:11 | 5627301 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you write from a country that has 1% of Muslims, don't you? with some notable examples that converted while in prison. what is an "invasion"? 1%? 5%? 10%?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:17 | 5627314 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Ghordius, i just stand with those who try to change the course of our modern one world .gov actions, some I even agree with, some not so much..but I think we both agree, NWO mega corp mega bank elites want this discord caused by rapid global migrations ..for many reasons, one of which is to scape goat others from the real criminal elite who promote illegal immigration.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 12:03 | 5628018 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Anything that divides us points to the REAL ENEMIES.

A minority of TRAITORS.

Not even that, they never were loyal.

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:46 | 5627267 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

" I suspect 10% of us are born with a kind of "suspicion versus the foreign" "

Your suspicion is apparently baseless

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:32 | 5627250 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

If this is geopolitical war then won't Central Bankers create money to support bankrupt frackers and other high priced producers?  Meanwhile unsupported "enemies" crash.  Seems like the logical bankster playbook to me.

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:39 | 5627261 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

eh? the historical bankster playbook is to help their friends to buy bankrupt frackers out for an apple and an egg. oh, and call it a "consolidation". leading to megacorps in fracking, which then makes lobbying easier, and so more effective

particularly if they have already peddled all the bonds and stocks and whatever they were financing about the frackers to the "market", i.e. suckers

you don't think that those megacorporations are natural, do you? lots of effort needed to create them, including a banking system that has no skin in the losing games

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:42 | 5627398 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Could be but after a couple of years of low oil prices what value would there be in a fracking operation that needs over $80 to be profitable?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:06 | 5627490 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

if after a couple of years the oil price is again above 100$, you can sell the hype, until it's a bubble

most railroads were built with this method. hype, bubble, crash, consolidation, hype, bubble, crash, consolidation...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:33 | 5627253 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Since its a new day and yesterday was down 300 pts shouldnt today be an up 200 pt day? The markets aren't functioning on anything rational so why not yes?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:11 | 5627494 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Its Tuesday after all, maybe now going forward a good day to buy more Shorts.

Shorts on, SRTY.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 08:53 | 5627280 nah
nah's picture

he who buys the most gold has the least money bitchez

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:08 | 5627300 yogibear
yogibear's picture

OPEC will need to keep the price below $40 for at least 6 months to destroy the tar sands and shale production.

Do they have the patience?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:27 | 5627343 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

As someone in the Industry your numbers are way the fuck off.... $70 is deadly, it wont be instantaneous, but long term damage is being done everyday.  6 months would be a good thorough cook.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:25 | 5627336 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

As always there will be a sharp reversal of this downward trend at somepoint, perhaps today, perhaps not.  The presses are rolling and the PPT is on hot standby....  What I am seeing is an overly bullish gold, and when this thing turns it will be interesting to see how hard they smash gold.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:26 | 5627339 db51
db51's picture

Don't panic....this is a well orchestrated plan.   In the end, oil will fully recover and DOW, USD and S&P will be at ALL TIME RECORD HIGH by Easter.  

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:10 | 5627524 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Maybe.  Also there may be 50% small and mid companies bankrupt in the Energy sector.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 09:29 | 5627356 blown income
blown income's picture

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Plunging-oi...

 

Going to have scale down honey to a million dollar home

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:46 | 5627653 Paul451
Paul451's picture

$35/bbl, bitches. Get used to it.

There will be no rise in the price anytime soon. If anything, the drop to $35 is a return to normal now that the entire world has fallen in love with socialism and we've run out of other people's money.

The $100+ price is/was total bullshit, based on over-borrowing, over-building, and other associated Keynesian wet dreams. If you're a Saudi Hanky Head who makes money in petro-dollars and the purveyor of petro-dollars is on a bender to devalue, what happens to the price of your commodity? Right. It goes up. When the devaluing stops, your commodity price drops...along with the price of every other goddamned commodity that was associated with the Wet Dream.

Now it's wakey-wakey time, the morning wood is gone, and Reality Re-Asserts Itself. You cant raise the price of oil when there's no demand because the global economy has been turned into a socialist POS and, simultaneously, everyone is up to their testicles in debt.

Go buy an SUV that gets 7 mpg and enjoy the ride!

 

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:47 | 5627688 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

The printing press is the Keynesian solution to running out of other people's money to spend...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 12:39 | 5628176 Elvis is Alive
Elvis is Alive's picture

Only reason this took so long was QE was finally taken off the table. There was never any other reason for Euro to rise like it did. Supply and demand is the big issue with oil's decline  but stronger dollar has been greasing the move down. 

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