This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Greek Bonds Tumble As Report Sees "Decisive Victory" For Syriza
The Greek 3Y-10Y yield curve is back over 400bps inverted this morning as bond (and stock) prices re-tumble following a new reports. As The FT reports, forecasting group Oxford Economics says it has carried out an "in-depth" analysis of opinion polls ahead of Greece's snap general election on January 25, which shows that the radical Syriza party is on course to win a "clear mandate" to push through anti-austerity policies. Will German worry now?
The Greek yield curve has moved even more inverted...
[Oxford Economics] analysis shows that Syriza's support is sufficient to secure a workable majority in Greece.The report says:
36% of the final vote is the approximate threshold beyond which a strong anti-austerity government is plausible. Syriza's performance has been consistent with this in each of the last 20 opinion polls, and over 40% of the vote on average in the last five.
The report, written by Oxford Economics' Gabriel Sterne, points out that the ruling New Democracy party could close the gap, if a tactic pays off to portray the election as effectively a referendum on an exit from the euro.
But Mr Sterne adds:
But the binary (in or out) nature of the vote decision may also help Syriza to achieve a decisive victory by squeezing out smaller parties (eg. Independent Greeks), as voters herd to the big two.
And as Reuters adds, Syriza's leader Tsipras has warned Draghi that is QE is undertaken, it must include buying Greek bonds...
Greek leftwing opposition leader Alexis Tsipras said the European Central Bank (ECB) could not exclude Greece if it decides to move to a full "quantitative easing" program to stimulate the euro zone's faltering economy.
...
Tsipras said he hoped ECB President Mario Draghi would decide to go ahead with the program and said Greece could not be shut out, as some economists and politicians from countries including Germany have suggested.
"Quantitative easing by the ECB with direct purchases of government bonds must include Greece," Tsipras said.
...
In a speech laced with barbs against German Chancellor Angela Merkel and finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, Tsipras said his party would roll back many of the austerity policies imposed by the bailout "troika".
"Austerity is both irrational and destructive. To pay back debt, a bold restructuring is needed," he said.
* * *
For now, bonds don't seem to care. As bond prices slide to new lows..
»
- 8922 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The EU is "going greek" with itself.
Actually, they will be bending germany and the rest of the EU over to get their debts reduced.
"Will German worry now?"
Naw, he'll just go on designing winning racing yachts:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ%C3%A1n_Frers
http://www.germanfrers.com/
Ze Germans are playing the Greek card to keep the Euro down and their exports up quite successfully for the past 4 years They need regular showdowns with the "evil lazy Greeks" otherwise their economy is toast. SYRIZA is a godsent, just as long as they have bursts of "patriotic resistance" every six months or so.
(double post)
I hope this blows up in all the wrong (Italian Real Estate and Spanish Banking) places.
Watch the EMZ end with a bang as everyone skurries for the exits.
Crap, I have to change my pants now. Got excited at the idea.
Are you 16 ?
No.
I wonder -- if the EMZ died. Would Ghordo keep posting?
Yes
And this eventuality would not even necessarily mean the end of the EUR or the ECB, not even of the EuroSystem
In fact, one of the options is to have all countries to exit and keep existing debt in EUR
Handy if you want to re-introduce gold, for example
Too bad the "sovereign" (lmao!) Germany will never receive their gold back.
That really sucks for them in the scenario you suggest...
The EU and Germany will not worry about the results -- they already have the headline story written and have decided what the election numbers will be -- showing a stunning Syriza defeat -- sort of like what they did to Scotland.
How do you tamper a multi-party monitored paper ballot election?
Greeks don't care as they won't pay them back, so fuck you to the dumb funds buying them hoping for taxpayer money to give them a profit
Never lend a Greek money., and I have Greek Cypriot nieces and nephews.
Or is the EU being greeked?
and they rallied the Dax 250 points LOL
It's because everyone knows Syriza is all theater.
Only ZH does not seem to know.
Shut uo .
1. Syriza's support is still rising though the establishment is throwing everything it has at it. The abuse and the scaremongering in the Greek media has to be heard and seen to be believed. Amongst the claims I heard whilst I was there were these two: (1) that a Syria government would instantly suspend interest payments on Greece's debts; and (2) that a Syriza official has threatened that if EU support is withdrawn a Syriza government will cover the state budget by helping itself to money in people's bank accounts. Either of course may happen (the EU tried to do the second during the Cypriot bailout) but I don't believe Syriza has actually said it will do either and I can find nothing in the international media to suggest that it has.
2. More worryingly there are also for the first time since the 1970s serious rumours of a coup in preparation - of the Maidan as opposed to the straightforwardly military variety. I am afraid these rumours cannot be wholly discounted though presumably there would have to be a period of Syriza rule before it could be mounted.
3. There is also huge amount of speculation (and anger) about the motives of Antonin Samaras - the conservative Greek Prime Minister - in bringing forward a Presidential election when this was unnecessary and in proposing as a candidate for the Presidency a former EU Commissioner who was almost by definition unacceptable to many Greeks and to many Greek MPs. There are also some who say that if Samaras had really tried he could have won over enough MPs to get even this candidate elected but that he lost because he didn't really try. The implication behind these rumours is that the situation is actually much worse than Samaras pretends and that like previous Greek governments he has made it appear better than it is by cooking the books and is now bailing out whilst he still can. I have no idea whether this is the case or not - with EU officials planted in every Greek ministry it seems frankly unlikely - but the rumours are circulating, which shows how at least in elite circles Samaras's reputation has been damaged.
4. I do want to remind people of what I have said before. Even if Syriza is elected of 25th January 2015 it is not a foregone conclusion that some of the predictions or expectations people have about it will come true. Since Syriza is not an establishment party I know no one prominent within it but it seems to me that all that it is promising at the moment is that it will try to renegotiate the terms of the bailout so that it can start to cut the utterly crippling tax burden, which is strangling people and businesses. That is exactly what Samaras promised to do before he was elected - something people always forget. Of course he didn't do it and there is no guarantee Syriza will though it does seem to be made of much sterner stuff and it's support will surely collapse if it doesn't.
5. Meanwhile the EU and the Germans are pulling out the stops to influence the election - something that rather belies their confident claims that they would have no trouble dealing with a Grexit. In my opinion this interference is almost completely counterproductive, reinforcing the impression that the outgoing government is the EU's and Germany's stooge rather than the government of Greece. One particular comment made anonymously by a German official supposedly close to Merkel has gone down especially badly: that Greece is no longer in a position to "blackmail" Germany and the EU to get what it wants. When has Greece ever got what it wants? This talk of "blackmail" is both ugly and preposterous. How can Greece "blackmail" Germany? It is like saying that a rhinoceros is being threatened by an ant. It is the sort of crass comment I tend to associate with Wolfgang Schauble and I wonder whether he was the "anonymous official" who made it.
6. Overall my impression is that Greece is psychologically closer to a default and a Grexit than it has ever been. Though the great majority of Greeks still want the euro, after 5 years of contraction with no end in sight (no one takes talk of recovery seriously) the desperate intensity with which they clung to it in 2012 has drained away.
We still have three weeks before the elections and anything could happen in that time. I repeat again that I was only in Greece for a few days and my impressions are not in any sense a reliable guide to what will happen.
In passing, it was uncomfortably cold as only Athens can be in winter and there are sporadic and unreported power cuts usually affecting only small sections of the city at any one time, which however must add to the pressure on people and to the sense of decay.
Yay more bonds for super Mario to buy.
routine:
The global financial mafia mechanisms were mobilized one more time to spread the fear across the eurozone: "Sensing that political instability might rekindle the euro crisis, financial markets panicked. Prices on the Athens stockmarket plunged by almost 13% the day after the presidential vote was announced; yields on Greek ten-year bonds soared above 8% ..." . However, these "accidental" reactions by the "invisible" markets tend to be a routine every time their sovereignty is threatened. We saw a similar mobilization just before euro elections, while the global financial mafia always dictate "political stability", every time that its puppet political class is being threatened.
If Syriza wins, the world will be destroyed! No wait -- that will happen anyway when that big asteroid slams into the Earth the day after the Greek elections....
This is probably why European equities are soaring today.
News flash: there will not be a Grexit.
Leaders of Syriza have said multiple times they do not want to leave the euro.
Also, a few weeks ago, representatives of Syriza went to the City of London to meet with Goldman Sachs and other banks.
UNFORTUNATELY, there will not be a Grexit. Period.
Syriza would not have been given the media coverage it has received if they were not controlled opposition.
as a reminder....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvl9N9GdraQ
Back to the Russian view of the Anglo-American imperialist paradigm, simply stated: "If we can't have/control it, we'll leave the place with a fucked-up sistuation, in which nobody can do that.....maybe a warring set of factions, maybe key assets stripped, maybe key institutions gutted....doesn't matter.
So that begs the question: Who "saves" Greece? Answer: China
There's zilch left to confiscate in Greece and so the adage that if you owe the bank 20k it's your problem , however, if you owe the bank $250 billion it's their problem resonates loudly, no matter how Granny Merkel & Co wanna spin this, they're up shit creek without a paddle.
I think its funny a political party is saying they are going to bring back the spending...when they have nothing in the bank to spend....lol...how do you do that...
since when are banks about deposits?
Grexit has been inevitable since Day One, but the timing is the important thing. It has been necessary to move all those dead Greek bonds off of private balance sheets and on to public balance sheets.
The advent of the drachma will be the sign that enough bond losses, or at least all they are going to get, have been socialized.
Also note Syriza's claim that paying the debt involves restructuring-- which means not actually paying the debt but repudiating it in some soothing and imaginative fashion.
Of course they need to repudiate it. Than they need to be starved out of any future loans. Than they need to do with what they got - balance this budget the hard way. It does suck though, that first they needed to dig themselves deeper into this ditch over a period of quite a few years - not to offend special interests (financial, pensions, public sector workers etc).
Still, it is the same for half of the western civilization, with the other half only slowly learning from all the cratering economies around it. But, but we are not Greece! But, but we are not France! But, but we are not Italy! And so on, until really nobody can will himself into believing this nonsense anymore and than miraculusly radical reform will again become possible, special interests be damned.
it all goes back to balanced budgets, yes. hell, even mostly balanced is enough
staggering indeed. has everybody gone crazy? the new normal is that everything is okay until the government can accumulate new loans? really sustainable!
Austerity is both irrational and destructive. To pay back debt, a bold restructuring is needed," he said.
And don't forget to outlaw Goldman Sachs.
No Fucking Way
TPTB will spend a fucking shitload on a massive scare campaign. They'll hire the same fucksticks that propagandized the Scottish secession and the Swiss gold referendum.
The status quo will prevail...
Radical? I guess the term "Radical" means they are going to tell the bankers that have been looting their country to bugger off.
Syriza, is that the Nazi ones. It's hard to keep up on a long enough time line.
Golden Dawn is the Nazi party
there needs to be a end to these catch 22 concepts on domestic economies, and once again the best interest of the many is squashed in the best interest of the elitist few!
the folks that run Germany can't wait to print, they're all Commie apparatchiks they're counting on Greece going more leftist and spending more, their immigration policies demand it.
Its all about the Jews pushing Muslim immigration for increased rent revenues and lower EU wages.
Welcome to Jewish Golden Age 3.0
Make no mistake the jews love Islam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_age_of_Jewish_culture_in_Spain
Its a great management tool.
Very interesting. Something that I've often wondered, is why there is such a large faction of Muslim students at Jewish-run private universities?