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Guest Post: 2015 - Grounds For Optimism?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

This may seem like an odd line of reasoning to pursue given what everyone else seems to be saying. Some are thinking that 2015 will be a repeat of 2014 with a few incremental changes (always a safe bet, but makes for boring reading) while others are warning of the potential for a nuclear confrontation between the US and Russia (always a possibility, on par with an asteroid strike or a supernova in our galactic vicinity). But this is all more of the same. The interesting question to ask is, How has the ground shifted in 2014, if indeed it has?

To my mind, the really interesting development of 2014 is that the world as a whole (with a few minor exceptions) has become quite lucid on the topic of what the United States, as a global empire, is and stands for. It is now very commonly and completely understood that:

1. The United States is an evil empire, attempting not so much to rule the world as to disrupt it to its short-term advantage.

 

2. The United States is failing, as an empire and as a country, and no amount of fraud, mayhem, torture and murder is going to save it.

 

3. The United States is still quite powerful and can cause massive damage on its way down. This damage must be contained, while plans are drawn up for an international arrangement that will arise upon its demise.

Looking back on 2013 and before, such sentiments were already being expressed, but on the fringes and quietly. The difference is that in 2014 they became commonplace knowledge, and their expressions thundered from presidential podiums. What's more, there just isn't that much of a counterargument being voiced. I don't hear a single voice out there arguing that the US is a benevolent force that is on the up-and-up, would never hurt a fly and is the permanent center of the universe. Yes, some people can still think that, but it's hard to see value in such “thought.”

There are still a few holdouts: the UK, Canada and Australia especially. But even there the true picture is being distorted because of their Murdockified national media. Judging from what I hear from the people there, they are almost uniformly nauseated by the subservient pro-US antics of their national leaders. As for the EU, the image of political uniformity presented by Brussels is largely a fiction. In the core countries of Western Europe, business leaders are almost uniformly in favor of close cooperation with Russia and against sanctions. Along the fringe, entire countries appear to be on the verge of switching sides. Hungary—never a friend of Russia—now seems more pro-Russian than ever. Bulgaria, which has had a love/hate attitude toward Russia for centuries now, seems to be edging back closer to love. Even the Poles are scratching their heads and wondering if close cooperation with the US is in their national interest.

Another major shift I have observed is that a significant percentage of the thinking people in the US no longer trusts their national media. There is a certain pattern to the kinds of messages that can go viral and spread wildly via tweets and social media. Fringe messages must, by definition, stay on the fringe. And yet last year something snapped: a few times I ran a story in an attempt to plug a gaping hole in the US mass media's coverage of events in the Ukraine, and the response was overwhelming, with hundreds of thousands of new readers showing up. What's more, a lot of them have kept coming back for more. I take this to mean that what I have to say, while by no means mainstream, is no longer on the fringe, and that bloggers have an increasingly important role in helping plug the giant holes in national media coverage.

Of course, the national media still has an important role to play. For instance, I have no idea how big Kim Kardashian's derrière is—but I hear it's big in the media. Can it sing? And so if you are looking for authoritative information on that important subject, then American national media is your friend. But for most non-ass-related things, it seems to me that the Americans who run the nation's political and media circuses broke a fundamental rule, which they apparently forgot, because it was first expressed by an American by the name of Abe Lincoln: “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” In case somebody out there in the media realm is tired of playing it safe and printing stuff that's only fit for wiping your Kardashian with, here are a some points for you to try to refute:

1. Economic inequality has to increase continuously, until the whole thing crashes, because that is the only way to continue propping the financial bubble while the real, physical, productive economy is actually shrinking. The rich can't possibly spend all of their money in the real economy. Instead, the poor things have to content themselves with investing in various luxury items, which they can't use all the same time, and so most of them sit and slowly decay. Or they put their money into paper wealth of various kinds—and that, of course, is very good for the financial bubble. In any event, if you have a financial bubble you need to prop up no matter what, in the face of serious physical limitations on land, energy, fresh water, high-grade ores and other essential industrial feedstocks, then your best bet is to do the reverse-Robin-Hood thing and go rob the poor and give to the rich.

 

2. Worldwide chaos must be driven up because that's the only way the US military can justify its existence. It is a very expensive military, but not a particularly effective one. (Just the new F-35 fighter cost over a trillion to develop—and yet it is a complete dud of a project and may never even go into production.) But in spite of this lavish spending the US military is incapable of scoring a decisive victory in just about any conflict, against any adversary, no matter how weak and impoverished, and their end result is always some sort of ongoing low-grade conflict that can flare up again at any time. Nevertheless, it can still threaten the weak and the poor, and use these threats to its financial advantage. But the only way to make these threats effective is to destroy some country on a semi-regular basis: “Nice country you got there! We'd hate to see it go the way of Libya.” A military confrontation with any of the real military powers—Russia, China, India, even Iran—is, of course, entirely out of the question, because a single humiliating military defeat for the US (which is inevitable given its track record against smaller, weaker adversaries) would be sufficient to undermine the entire program of US militarism.

 

3. As another American (Dwight Eisenhower) once put it: “If you can't solve a problem, enlarge it.” But it stands to reason that you do have to solve a problem once in a while; you can't just go on enlarging every problem you see ad infinitum. Now, what problems has the US solved lately? Anything good happening in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria or Ukraine? No, worse than ever. How about financial reform in the wake of the narrowly averted collapse in 2008? No, and there is another big one coming up in the form of the fracas in the fracking patch due to low oil prices. Anything good to report on health care reform? No, it's more ridiculously bloated and expensive than ever. Student debt repayable now? No, not by a long shot. How about an effort to reduce carbon emissions, to postpone (no longer to avoid!) the eastern seaboard, where half of everything is, going underwater? No, not a glimmer of hope. Problems with runaway public debt or unfunded government liabilities solved? No, there have been no efforts in that direction at all. Is the country still on course for national bankruptcy and collapse? All systems check, go with throttle up!

Now, your mileage may vary, but I have discovered that a surprising number of people around the world (though not especially in the US) is now very much clued into these things. And that is something that makes me feel optimistic about 2015.

 

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Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:04 | 5630491 Jeff the Terrible
Jeff the Terrible's picture

Optimism is what got Obama elected

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VI6tBwVjyOY

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:24 | 5630566 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Hope is not a strategy.
-Hillary The Hun

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:23 | 5630568 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

The media gets paid handsomely to lie to us.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:25 | 5630575 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

The cops get paid handsomely to protect the media, so we don't put them in the guillotine.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:28 | 5630585 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

What with the shapeshiftin' babes and all, the only solution is to kill your teevee.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:31 | 5630589 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

My wife is one of those people that can be fooled all of the time by the media. 

I love her, so I will do what I can to save her in spite of her ignorance. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:57 | 5630702 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Welcome to Fairytaleland....  

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 19:58 | 5630475 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Note to ZH.  Fewer articles = more value.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:10 | 5630509 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Not to mention deeper, more interesting comment threads :-)

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:06 | 5630496 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the author should probably have his meds checked

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:09 | 5630507 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Well, considering that the author lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union, I'd say his perspective is probably a lot more informed than yours, so try making a substantive comment rather than a stupid ad hominem.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:11 | 5630514 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

How about an effort to reduce carbon emissions, to postpone (no longer to avoid!) the eastern seaboard, where half of everything is, going underwater? No, not a glimmer of hope...

omg lolololololololol

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:26 | 5630806 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Beat me to the punch there Quato -- I was on board until I saw that...   Shame really, because being full-on 'alt' as it were, really goes out the window when one is all-in with the Global Warming Fad.   One would think somebody who values questioning the status quo, as Mr. Orlov seems wont to do, would have a just a little reservation about the whole AGW nonsense.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:35 | 5630843 OceanX
OceanX's picture

I'm on the East Coast and see a lot of beach restoration projects...

As for the South coast: 

Louisiana Is Sinking Fast

 

http://www.outsideonline.com/news-from-the-field/Louisiana-And-Our-Natio...

 

Don't believe it, then you should go "invest" in lots of coastal land.  I'm sure you have plenty of money er, credit...

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 22:10 | 5630946 venturen
venturen's picture

how long have you been alive? Are you aware that erosion(that is the technical term) has been with us a while? Are you aware that the Antarctic Ice cap is at a record? Or that there was a glacier over much of North America only 10000 years ago? What do you think happened between then and now...do you suppose some "melting".  I suppose you look to Krugman for your finances and weather? Just give your money to Gore...he fooled you and you don't deserve your money!

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 22:42 | 5631023 OceanX
OceanX's picture

It's estimated that a 2 degree rise in the Ocean temperature is enough to cause and extinction event,

NOAA ocean temperature history:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstru...

This is a good movie from Vernor Herzog, includes comments from scientist that are "on the ice."

Encounters at the End of the World Trailer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MImYM87jOtU

I'm sure it is all lies...

 

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 02:55 | 5631456 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Went back a whole 130 years?  Well if that isn't concrete proof of long term climate change, I'll keep calling bullshit.

What do you get when you look at the rainfall stats in Commiefornia over the same time period?

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 12:30 | 5632884 OceanX
OceanX's picture

Yes and not all the data is reliable however, currently the warming trend is accelerationg.  Do you agree there is a correlatoin between the amount of C02 in the atomsphere and temperature,

here is some ice core data:  http://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores.html  (tree ring study data also, I beleive there is over 900 years of tree ring data)

Do you agree that deforestaion is reducing earths ability to absorb C02?

Do you agree that the amount of carbon that was absorbed from the atomsphere over a 200 million year period was released back into the atomsphere in the last 150 years?

I've walked on the Permafrost, it felt spongy, as recent as the 80s it was frozen solid in July. 

Do you believe Methane is more effetive at trapping heat than C02?  Do believe the permafrost seals a layer of Methane hydrates? 

 

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 06:12 | 5631587 Ghostbusters
Ghostbusters's picture

divide and conquer.  distraction and confusion.  US is the bad guy.  Australia, Canada, and UK are not so bad...Russia is good.  LaLaLand where we sing kumbaya and la-dee da-dee we likes to party we don't cause trouble we don't bother nobody. 

Is US foreign policy, and policy in general, horrible?  Clearly.  But why has everyone forgotten the fact that the sun never sets on the British Empire and though it may have changed names and the Queen may have stepped back a bit, was it not that very imperialist European oligarchic corporate structure that created the world as it is today?  Has the Federal Reserve, private bank, not backstopped all of Europe?  Ummm, the United States, European Union, NATO, UN, and all other centralized unions imposed on the people are part of the hierarchical show of 'democracy.'  So great that they had to kill millions of people to do it!!!  Where does the legal system come from?  What is the international language of business, economics, and banking? 

Unfortunately, the US of A has become a puppet state to European interests.  We forgot that England was the enemy and now we call it an ally though they have propagated a system of government that has gradually impoverished the masses.  The US of A still retains hope though for the people who think deeper than a simple article, ask the right questions, and get the correct answers.  It is easy to blame the US for the world's ails but the US is a relatively young country with a younger history of power filled with lies.  Why did the US saved Western Europe in WWI and WWII?  The Creel Committee may shed some insight.  One need only follow the money to understand i.e. capitalism funding  communism/socialism in Europe or China but then England appears again as today still we see the special administrative region of Hong Kong which has English as a co-official language, a common law legal system, and 'democractically' elected 'representatives').

This is a global game where it appears even the BRICS countries are on the same side as the European oligarchs of old.  The US is on its way down for economic reasons, like much of the developed world, and oligarchs have already put in place the plan for what is to come next.  It is our job as free-minded people to seek and espouse liberty no matter what ethnicity or creed our parents may have given us.  Down with hierarchy and on with personal freedom which demands responsibility.  The majority of the people still don't want to be free and that is why we labor on supporting the bankrupt status quo and listening to ridiculous opinions from 'experts.'  Education is the future, and not the fascist European style...over n out.

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 16:24 | 5634093 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

OK, so it appears you've graduated Putin 101, "Putin Propaganda 24/7 Everywhere". Now, you need to enroll in Putin 102, "Bare Minimum Lucidity".

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:11 | 5630510 CH1
CH1's picture

This article was terrific.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:18 | 5630544 Drummond
Drummond's picture

Yep, nothing wrong with that article. Ticked all my boxes.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:11 | 5630511 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

or confiscated.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:15 | 5630528 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Lots of people are callin BS all over the place.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:20 | 5630548 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

No worries, Jeb and Hillary are running in 2016.  The stupidity of the masses are going to finish us off i'm afraid.  I will say there's a lot more people awake than before but enough?  Of course with diebold who's to say lol.  I mean fuck, what can you do but laugh at this shit?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:41 | 5630636 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Neither is acceptable. No member of the Bush or Clinton clans must ever be allowed to hold that office again. Same for Kennedy (we might have ended up with Teddy if it weren't for that unfortunate incident at Chappaquiddick, and he still came mightly close to winning the nomination), Roosevelt, Nixon, Eisenhower etc. Simply being a member of a family who has produced a president should disqualify a candidate in the eyes of voters. We'll end up worse off than the Brits, stuck with several expensive and useless clans of royals expecting to be supported in the manner to which they have become accustomed, behaving badly and expecting others to clean up or cover up the mess they made while blithely pursuing their own pleasure and demanding special treatment and privileges. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:00 | 5630716 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

The country needs anothrer Bush or Clinton ("There ain't nuthin uglier than an old white woman."  Fred Sanford) just like it needs another term of the pathological liar in chief fudgepacker....

 

Dr. Ben Carson for President 2016

www.runbenrun.org

www.americafirstpac.org

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 22:09 | 5630939 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Carson is a gun grabber.

 

Our precious Second Amendment is our last best hope,perhaps for the entire world.

 

Consevatives need to stop bendinging over backwards, for every lukewarm conservative with a black face.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:19 | 5630549 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I don't think being clued in is going to matter.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:22 | 5630560 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I think you're right.  Not much can be done about it.  The shit the US gov't will try to enforce on it's people is going to make the current system look like candyland.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:25 | 5630576 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

The vast majority of americans would be shocked to learn that anyone doesn't like america. It won't compute. And that will be very easy to exploit.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:35 | 5630620 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm often misunderstood.  I don't 'dislike' the US.  I hate the assholes that are in charge of it.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:44 | 5630658 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

My point is that if the rest of the world unifies against the US (leadership), it'll be easy for the government to turn it on the rest of the world, say they hate us for our freedom, etc. And the american people will be suceptible to it, because they won't understand where the hatred is coming from. And I fear that the US will become beligerent at that point, with the backing of the citizenry. I don't think pressure from the world will cause the US to just lay down and stop doing what it's doing. It's more likely the US leadership will go full-on crazy.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:31 | 5630814 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

It might be a bit of a struggle though, especially since countries that have been touted via the MSM as "Loyal Friends" to the regime will have to be all denounced, despite many, many people in the USA knowing full well how these countries have helped US interests in the not quite so distant past.

Then, there is the "problem" of the Internet. Maybe the Regime will operate a Chinese - style system where all access is restricted to "approved" sites - entirely do-able but what about the US migrant population - many with money (= power & influence). "Restriction" for the hoi polloi, with "reduced restriction" for the better-connected?? What about other information sources, e.g. Shortwave?

Anyway, the thoughts of a belligerent and heavuly nuclear-armed USA are not compatible with Global survival, 'cause if the US continues to throw its weight around, someone (possibly Russia & China??) is going to start pushing back, and once others see that "The Big Bully" is not that irresistable, the push-back crowd will grow, and we might well see a snowball effect.

Then? "It only takes ONE mistake", everyone "swaps their WMDs with each other", and life as we generally know it ends.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:32 | 5630818 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

That's a good point, but consider that the reason why the elites have had such an easy time brainwashing masses is because Americans overall have had a pretty good life compared to the rest of the world during the 20th century.  It'll be a lot harder to convince people, like Bush did with his 'go back to sleep, we've got this' approach after 9/11.  When the US collapses (which is now accelerating) it won't be so easy to lull Americans to sleep when they are actually suffering financially.  It looks to me like it'll be a race to wake people up before they're just so dumbed down and stupid that they'll just do what they're told.  

"Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter..."

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 23:29 | 5631134 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

I say the same thing.  I love "my country" but management sux.  I will never consent.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 23:22 | 5631118 silverer
silverer's picture

I tell all my friends that travel overseas to tell their hosts and casual meeting encounters that they are Canadian. You'll get treated better.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:23 | 5630559 Norm Alcybias
Norm Alcybias's picture

My name is Norm, and I approval this massage.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:22 | 5630565 Katastrofenhausse
Katastrofenhausse's picture

 

 

Keynsian Multiplier = Moar Death and Misery

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:37 | 5630630 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

If there is a war I don't think the majority of the US will have their heart in it like some other countries. Just my opinion.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 23:20 | 5631114 silverer
silverer's picture

We couldn't win a ground war against North Korea, in my opinion. If we did, it would be close.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:46 | 5630667 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

i find it painful to be criticized by someone named Orlov.  Sometimes the shoe fits; but not this time.  Yes, MSM has been corporatized so malfeasance is rarely reported (except maybe Taibbi) let alone indicted.

Yes, the banks/squid have revolving doored the Fed, Treasury, DoD, DoJ, SEC, leading to the 'evil' so aptly described.  compared to Stalin?  Mao?  Pol Pot?  Mengistu?  Saddam?  To paraphrase Sir Winston "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."  Well, we're getting pretty damn close to having tried everything else...must we do better?  damn right.  we're working on it; admittedly it aint pretty but we're working on it.

and remind me Mr. Orlov, how long is the cue to emigrate to Russia? 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:35 | 5630840 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

You're basing your judgement of the man's intellect on his name?  "We're working on it?" Who's "We?"  Financial bubbles aren't the only bubbles around here.  How about the one you're living in?

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 08:17 | 5631714 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Name one fucking thing positive the USSA is working on....  didn't think so...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 20:59 | 5630715 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

The guest poster is apt apart from that comment about being optimistic.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:24 | 5630802 meterman
meterman's picture

Nothing will change in 2015, or any subsequent year, as long as the fed can print their way around any problem and manipulate - manipulate - manipulate.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 23:11 | 5631092 silverer
silverer's picture

One problem: They've done stupid things since 1983. Can't do stupid forever. They are going to outsmart stupid?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:22 | 5630789 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

SNL can use a writer who does slick parody as this author of this article does.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 21:55 | 5630909 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The media works for ISIS.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 23:09 | 5631089 silverer
silverer's picture

Because ISIS is hiring and gets higher ratings?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 23:08 | 5631084 silverer
silverer's picture

If you want to find out what's going on in the U.S., you have to read some other countries newspaper. I'm always floored when I pick up an out of country newspaper. At first, you think it's propaganda. But then you realize that everything they say makes sense, and you really can't refute the statements. Apparently, the U.S. news network has just taken, like the rest of the 52% percent here, the lazy easy path. Don't write anything that might upset your chances for a promotion or threaten your pension. Just keep your head down and report the BS.

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 00:49 | 5631324 cart00ner
cart00ner's picture

Absolutely true about Australia sucking up to the Whitehouse, whichever prick we vote in has to be approved by Mr. Murdoch. I know, I worked for the tool as a political cartoonist and we were told who we liked/disliked.

Noticed that when our PM goes to the US he/she has to be briefed by Rupert before being allowed to see your Prez or anyone of importance.

 

Fuck your politicians and fuck ours even more.

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 10:26 | 5632273 localizer
localizer's picture

Murdockified, LMAO

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 16:40 | 5634179 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

It is masochistic to read all comments on these Putin-loving articles posted by the Russian Hitler-Like-Youths who adore Putin, and desperately want to blow-job him, but, among other benefits, it's escapist. One doesn't need to read a book, or watch a movie, or even sit on a banana chair on some Caribbean island sipping some fruity drink. To escape reality, all one needs to do is read all comments on these Putin-loving articles posted by the Russian Hitler-Like-Youths who adore Putin, and desperately want to blow-job him. Man, it's like close to the ultimate non-reality.

You know, it's amazing how mediocre Russian Hitler-Like-Youth propaganda is. Both as individuals and as a group, Russian Hitler-Like-Youths are amazingly inept.

Of course, it's not immediately obvious what the fatal flaws in the Russian Hitler-Like-Youth propaganda are. It takes some digging, and immersing oneself in the vile filth spewed by Russian Hitler-Like-Youths. However, after a while, it becomes easier.

In addition to being medicore and inept, Russian Hitler-Like-Youth propaganda is also simplistic, even naive. Then, again, 13-year-olds who brush the inside of their mouths 100 times a day just in case they get to blow-job Putin are not very sophisticated.

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 18:14 | 5634674 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

The repeation exhibited by this guy tells quite a tale of projection.

Hammering those same points reads like he is masturbating on his own 'american' propaganda.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 21:19 | 5653783 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Wow. What a powerful argument. I must respond in kind: Same to you, but only more; alternately, sew buttons.

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