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The Last Bubble
Broadly speaking, as markets recovered from mid 2009 (amid extreme monetary policy experimentation around the world), economic growth and asset prices were in sync around the world. When markets faltered after the end of QE2 in 2011 and the Fed folded on moderation, investors around the world piled into US equity and credit markets chasing the 'easiest' money in the world. Then as China unleashed its own QE-Lite and the Fed confirmed the end of QE, tidal waves of fresh speculative capital flooded a small, illiquid market on the other side of the planet... and hey presto, The Last Bubble market was created.
Chinese stocks took over the mantle of "hot-money-speculative-mania-must-buy-now" asset class mid 2014...
This is the last bubble... as already, the cracks are showing as both speculative excess is clearly evident in new account openings...
and a significant deterioration in credit markets is occurring...
Keep dancing while the music is playing? Or observe the carnage from the bar?
Charts: Bloomberg
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confucious say man who call bubble not make money...
Gota pretty good bond bubble going on right now
Ya, there will never be a "last" bubble. It's what the FED does.
I disagree. The last bubble will be Civilization.
And usual overnight USDJPY shenanigans...
DavidC
Looks like a chart full of people making their last desperate throw of the dice.
The Greater Fool Theory should keep things cooking along for a while.
But the only real question remaining is:
Who cracks first? US, EU, UK, Russia, China, Japan, Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, North Korea, Nigeria, various dark horse contenders?
Nigeria is your dark horse candidate. Hell,, they are going to start to blow up their own pipelines to make news in an attempt to drive the price of oil higher, thus sending their pesky Islamic Millitants to the unemployment line ...
You mean "who attacks first."
OK, so Yellen has passed the QE joint to the BOC, and now Shanghai is up 60% in a classic parabolic move: all smoke. It will crash within weeks. Between this imminent deleveraging and some form of Grexit, things could get a lot worse and a lot faster than '08.
I used to follow this site but got tired of reading about the "coming collapse" every day. The collapse isn't coming any day now, this *IS* the collapse. You've all been living through it for the past 6+ years. You're right smack dab in the middle of it. Geesh!
Oh man you really missed something if you didn't catch the first wave of articles on whether or not Greece was going to default about 3 years ago. I've read every one of them and I'll never be the same.
Wait to see what finally happens, because leverage is an 800 pound rehypothecated bitch on bathsalts.
Yes true, but we havnt hit bottom yet.
Borrow student loans to BTFD bitchez. No no no no don't borrow student loans to BTFD. You might try some Bitcoin though.
I vote cleavage from the bar.
blowing soap bubbles at -40 below
they float for a few seconds
then they fall to the ground
and shatter...
fun in the arctic..
Theoretical Physicists have a concept called String Theory
I've produced my own investment equivalent of it called Bubble Theory
The results of this next one popping will be similar to what happened when you took your first virgin's cherry. If some of you decrepit old bastards here can even remember that far back. Remember? Before time began...
"Is there any other type of sex"?
The Duke of York.
Last bubbles are as different from previous bubbles as last drinks are different from the drinks that preceded them.
They're not as much fun and often lead to serious problems.
china growing at 5% is better for china than the usa contracting by 3% i s for the usa. china still has three quarters of a billion people to absorb all the inflation they can make, their money is owned by .gov and not a band of jackals(maybe a few oni though) sucking the tax teat of the people for private gain.
the play here is to domesticate the chinese economy. a few americans remember when the dollar was king of the world. you could go anywhere in the world with dollars and buy 10 times its value in goods. i was a kid in tokyo skipping school with 500 yen(about a $1.40) in my pocket and could catch the train downtown, hang around, buy lunch and some stuff and be back to last class with money in my pocket. the phillipines and thailand and, of course, viet nam were better, even hong kong was.
since the yuan rides the dollar and the dollar is strong, the yuan is strong. since the yuan is actually stronger than the dollar(is the dollar tied to the yuan or vice versa) the usa can't sanction much so the yuan runs the show. a strong yuan means the chinese can buy the world now. they can buy your sister and they will. those chinese, ha, ha, what a funny bunch.
....and the usa becomes the manufacturing king of the world once again. USA!USA!USA! building china for america!. that won't happen but if the chinese pull off this consumer economy thing and the usa let's them lead the eastern world, anyway, we may have a plan here.
the market has to correct about 20% first so i can refi at 3% before anything happens and that may still be a few years away realistically.