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Treasury Yield Plunge Approaches Flash Crash Pace
Few will ever forget the ferocity of the October short-squeeze in US Treasuries that flash-crashed yields. As Nanex notes however, today's yield plunge (price surge) is starting to shape up as an extreme flight-to-safety squeeze. As we noted earlier, US Treasury short positioning into this week was its highest in over 4 years...
Today vs October's yield flash crash...
The surge in futures prices is getting extreme
And this is maybe why...
Charts: Bloomberg, Nanex, BofAML
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Now all I need is a warm bath ( hopefully with mrs_horseman) and some patchouli oil.
not sure where you're going with the 4 candles ... happy epiphany?
That is almost the exact PM I sent to Kevin Henry!
Weird.
did he respond? probably too busy slamming the "buy" buttons all the while breaking the glass to get out the "in case you feel like panic" trading survival guide
Yes.
He was sleeping.
I woke him up at 12:25.
He sent me this...
there's cracks in the dam, yellen will just plaster over it tho, right?
unless the buck breaks, Yellen will not make a move
exactly-what they want...
"they" are one and the same as Yellen. She gets her marching orders from "them".
Oil is not going to bounce back anytime soon, as there's no reason to bid up oil. Every uptick gets sold into. Buy and hold oil at this level and with this bullshit going on is not happening.
Are "they" crashing oil and if so, why are they doing this when it will hurt themselves? Can't all be about Russia, can it?
This is the best explanation of who "they" are. http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-squelchers-part-3-and-their-interesting-associates/silver-squelchers-part-3-and-their-interesting-associates/ in sort members of the "Pilgrim Society".
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee........gimmee some more STAWK money granny
It means something in your head right?
Stewart Thomson's predicting the Fed is about to ask the Chinese Central Bank to REVALUE GOLD.
2015 is shaping up to be rather interesting.
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!
No, just people that rely on a pension.
From pension to pinching
Brought to you by your bubble makers at the central bank
Leading the world to third world in no time flat......
Good luck with those pensions esp the O&G folks who have 80% + of their pensions tied up in O&G stawks [which are down 40-70%].
I sympathize with them. I worked for Lucent awhile back and got totally punked by their collapse. NEVER keep more then a few percentage points of your pension money in the company you work for if at all possible ... for obvious reasons.
...and people who rely on (READ: rent theri bodies from) the "Healthcare" system..
Overheard from the GS Trading floors: "I love the smell of Flash Crash in the morning. The stinch of carnage. The sounds of agonizing pain. It only means moar bonus money for us."
2'0 daily move in zee bonds ain't no joke.
I refreshed my screen twice just to make sure it was not a glitch. Fucking huge move. Baltic Dry should be going negative anyday now.
Boating accidents on a large scale.....
It was just in the process of bottoming out it's latest downward move, and starting yesterday, the downward move started picking up velocity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
two points is a HUGE move. Lots of bond shops making a killing and hedgies getting creamed.
I sold my TLT and stepped into TBT for a trade. I had said in other posts a close below 2.06% and we see 1.90 - 10yr closed yesterday at 2.04. Here comes 190.
A close below 190 is unknown terrain - there are no major resistance points below 190 in yield.
Good luck trading -
NoVa
It's a brave new world...
good time to be a mortgage banker.
refi tyme a comin
thank you fed/.gov for being soooo
irresponsible
money for cheap, bitcheez for about the same, ha...
This is not the Fed - this is Mr Market going risk-off.
the transmission of Treasuries into mortgage prices (rates) will take a few days to assess if this rally is real or will fade (ala Oct 15th).
TBAs are fading some of the gains from earlier in the day, but still a nice trade desk day. Gift horse.
on the refi front, it still takes an effort to qualify. and most people who can refi already have. When FNMA and FRE issue a new MBS coupon band of 3.0 (current is 3.5), then you'll know the lower mortgage rates are here to stay.
NoVa
Where the hell is Beeks?
Female?!?!?
Who on earth are the stupid fuckers shorting treasuries? They shouldn't be allowed near anybody's fiat.
Jumping off buildings in 3 2 1
I know---they're the idiots to whom I just spent the last hour selling SOME of my Treasuries to. And let me tell you, it was a fun hour, right out of Trading Places!
But don't worry, these same idiots will be selling soon, and I'll buy my Treasuries back....at a lower price.....just like I did in the aftermath of 10/15/14.
good luck
not so sure this will be october redux ... oil wasn't crashing then
i would hold for next leg down(up), this bear was woke up and aint happy. the bear aint gonna take your trade lightly. bears usually sleep for 3 more month up here in snota land, ha...
The FED?
where does todays stick save come from? Been nice ERY, TZA and SQQQ couple of days, but I have my stops tight....
Get your Gold and Silver now. We are in countdown mode.
real flight to safety is in the only real currency there ever was
Love it or hate it, Gold has that zero counter party thingamajig that is kinda appealing at times.
For some reason Gold and Silver are not safe havens anymore....they do not seem to following the run to saftey game like they used to..sure we are up a little today...but we should be up much more......TPTB seem to have chosen Treasuries as their game ball now...
TPTB wouldn't let the paper prices of metals get out of hand. That would be their absolute capitulation and they might as well meet in a train somewhere near Versailles and be signing a treaty to never manipulate fiat ever again.
No, the real action is in the bullion metals. There's neverending demand for gold and silver and as long as fiat is worth something, the conversion happens steadily.
Too bad it's a useless relic of a bygone era and not anything like REAL money.....
Lead, brass and food. You might want to take up flint knapping as a hobby too.
Good old fashioned bow and arrow, though most people can't draw a 120 lb. war bow anymore....
keep on Plugging
Jesus! The 3 month has a negative yield in NOMINAL terms. WTF?
This has nothing to do with short covering (although it is helping today) and everything to do with the insane action in european bond yields pricing in a grexit. French 30 year bonds were down 14 basis points this morning, when they were still trying to hold our yields to levels they accept. they = NY FED and primaries
Look at the 2 year!
5 yr is negative in Germany already
cash is burning
At what point does this market wake up and realize the ECB has no viable options, and where do yields go from there?
do you have a sizeable amount of cash at home (preferred) or in a bank account (if you like paying the middleman for the safe keeping)?
would you loan it out and if so, at what rate?
that is where your yield is.
Just to eerie quiet from the jawbone brigade. something stinks and bad.
Observation from my wise wife ... "What goes up always comes down"
Got my fiat out of the bank before they shut down operations.
it wasn't you in ny was it? jpm chase?
Not concearned: we got the brightest minds working on it! Obama, Yellin, our wonderful Treasury Secretary. They. got. this.
All that has to happen is Yellen or Bullard mention patients or considerable time and things will rocket back up. Or this time the shit is broken and its come to Jesus time.
How much have bonds retraced since Kevin H read this post?
... in the midst of great anger, smile; they don’t have to know you’re broke ... :)
See we got a stick save coming. Don't fret guys.
It's like ZH refuses to learn.
Cognitive dissonance after 6 years of this crap?
PPT is in the house!!!
50 point rebound on the DOW in the last 10 minutes.
looks like the derivative apparatus is bursting at the seams. Now, what other rabbit can they pull out of their magic hat!?! QE4....Infinity....Maybe they can include begging in the GDP as well as prostitution like Europe.
I'm trying to find the perfect word to describe this action.
Ooh! I've got i!
Bullish!
2 standard deviations above and below 1 year moving average = Panic to safety.
my nigga Obama got this. Fist bump for my nigga
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7hFxcy40vk
My long range prediction is for the 10Y to go under 1%. What I do after that, I have no clue.
yep ... plenty of room to go lower (jpn 10yr yield 0.29%) ... treasuries will be bullseye for carry trade with relatively high yield compared to other countries ... with appreciating currency for cherry on top of trade
I've finally got some dry powder available
Nanex showing 10yr liquidity just dried up... Wtf?
https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/552521611669409792
Nanex gives the best charts.
beep....beep...beep..beep.beep.beepbeepeep........beeee.......................z..zz.z.z.zzzzzzzzz......
It's the final countdown!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
I prefer this one.
I don't understand so wizards please clue me in. If a ... country wanted to sell (dump) a huge amount of 30 yr Treasuries, who do they sell to (THROUGH)? And with such a dump, would buyers of such quantities have an advantage of "pricing"?
A primary dealer or direct client thereof. Whether directly or indirectly. As a practical matter, the bigger the sale , the more it would need to be through a primary dealer to remain covert.
So now we need some quantitative tightening (QT)?
Bond panic, Stocks killed, Metals catching a bid. It's a beautiful day!
10 yr is going to 150bps kids. Just look at Bunds and JGB's.
The Electron Gun
Cold Fusion isn’t cold. A reference voltage is a reference voltage; it’s relative. What’s the difference between pulsating dc and ac? Where did the universe get a load to create perception? How did it go from nothing to an LRC? What is an autotransformer, an open and a short? If you cannot observe a connection, any thing, between the mirrors, does that mean that there is no connection? When does association become causation? What’s up with all those pendulums? If someone else has to pay G $1M for a taxi license and you get it for free, how much money did you print and what is it worth? If you need a telephone to transact business, what is it worth? What is bias voltage?
Objective-based, best business practice gets you nowhere, faster, measuring real estate inflation make-work as productivity, which can only result in income inequality, increasing pressure on decreasing volume, in an actuarial ponzi, a pendulum or an igniter depending upon what you want to do, virtual printing of UST to front-run IPO guarantees, God’s work, if you can get it, and the critters are sufficiently brain-dead to process the natural resources accordingly, at purchasing power loss, inflation.
Whether the elevator serves the building or the building serves the elevator, whether something is opposite or complimentary is a matter of perspective. I had a boss that wanted me to show an empire electrician how to wire up to my controller one time, because that’s what his boss wanted, because they all had mortgages and associated drug habits to feed. Sending someone over from the Old Country was a problemsolution.
A Big Bang is only an event for the already brain-dead. Labor does what it does in Zero Time. Don’t let the artificial business cycles make a fool of you. Everyone is much better off paying Little Miss Sunshine, in RE deflation. There’s a reason why things implode behind her.
Big Euro banks bet the farm on the infinitely increasing price of energy.
US banks sold them their default swaps.
This is why the ECB today is floating options for QE. They will imminently need QE, regardless of what is happening with in the EU economically, to save their banking system.
And the impacts of low oil on financial entities is also why the Fed will eventually have to return to QE shortly thereafter.