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December Jobs "Significantly Below 200,000", Q4 GDP Tumbles To 2%, Markit Warns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Markit's US Services PMI missed expectations of 53.7, priting at 53.3, its lowest since Feb 2014 (mid Polar Vortex). From record highs in June, PMI has plunged non-stop for six months leaving Markit noting Q4 growth is looking more like 2.0% than the 5.0% exuberance in Q3.

US Services PMI plunges...

 

and along with the tumble in manufacturing leaves the US Composite PMI at 14 month lows...

 

It gets worse. From the report, via Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

“The US economy lost significant growth momentum at the close of the year. Excluding the drop in activity caused by the October 2013 government shutdown, the manufacturing and service sector PMIs collectively signalled the weakest expansion since the end of 2012. This is also not just a one-month wobble: the pace of growth has now slowed for six consecutive months.

“The PMI surveys act as good leading indicators of GDP data, and suggest that the pace of US economic growth will have slowed in the fourth quarter. According to the PMIs, fourth quarter growth is looking more like 2.0% rather than the 5.0% annualised rate of expansion enjoyed in the third quarter.

“Job creation has waned alongside the slowdown, with the survey indicating that monthly payroll growth has slipped significantly below the 200,000 mark. Companies have become increasingly reluctant to take on staff due to the cloudier economic outlook, in turn linked to various factors ranging from global geopolitical concerns, worries about higher interest rates and uncertainty about rising staff healthcare costs.

“However, it’s important to note that growth is merely slowing from an unusually powerful rate rather than stalling. Lower oil and fuel prices should also help foster stronger economic growth as we move into 2015, by reducing the fuel bills of households and companies. Measured across both sectors, input costs showed the smallest rise since April 2013 in December. Lower prices will also of course provide added leeway for interest rates to remain on hold for longer.”

 

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Tue, 01/06/2015 - 10:58 | 5627724 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If ya double up on the FRAUD you can get that number to looking good.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:01 | 5627737 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

I'm supporting the healthcare system for others...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:05 | 5627758 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

good...'cause the 'Flu Vortex' is going to be HUGE this year! 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:06 | 5627764 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

TWO percent!!?

Moar like negative two percent you mooks!

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:17 | 5627815 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Bullish! It means we can PRINT moar toilet paper for the SHIT economy

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:01 | 5627742 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

so 5% to get EOY dow to 18k+ and approval rating to 47%, from here on out it will be how to make the numbers look "dis-inflationary" so as to not spook the rate increase crowd.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:03 | 5627749 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

QE4 brewing....

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:13 | 5627792 blaireauhedge
blaireauhedge's picture

Yep. For years now we've seen Zero Hedgers get excited every time there is a one-session drop of 300 points or so, only to be followed by massive vertical ramps in the following days.

The DAX, London and Paris are already surging today.

The PTB simply won't allow a market crash on the watch of the "first black President".

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:16 | 5627813 yogibear
yogibear's picture

99% chance of QE 4.

All that's left for the Federal Reserve. Can't ever raise rates.'

Infinite insane Federal Reserve printing. That's all that's left.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:22 | 5627833 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, that and war. There's always that.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:32 | 5627867 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

We already have the war,we are  just waiting on the more dying.

Now thinking wartime, you raise rates to try to cripple your enemy's currency.

The Fed Res can't though.

You also need gold for war, strictly bring gold and carry..

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 12:09 | 5628044 Be_Optimistic
Be_Optimistic's picture

But Lord Yellen said we have to be paitent

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:03 | 5627753 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Wait until everyone figures out it's actually negative GDP, because if you factor in inflation and interest rates, it is very negative

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:06 | 5627767 Hulk
Hulk's picture

just remove imputed rents frm the GDP and you have a negative print...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 14:00 | 5628750 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Or healthcare spending courtesy of 0zer0care.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:16 | 5627809 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

hitlery....according to nielsons there is only 177,000 more to go, than everyone will have figured it out... 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:04 | 5627759 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Won't Obozocare numbers make up the difference and give us another 5% for the next quarter?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:19 | 5627818 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Nothing like the wealth effect of having a rigid sigmoid stuck up your ass to save GDP.

"It was the best of times.

It was the worst of times."

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:54 | 5627964 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Was that quote from "A Tale of Two Economies"? You know, the official one and the real one?

As Obama said while wrecking the US socially and economically, "It is a far, far nastier thing I do than I have ever done before."

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:09 | 5627775 sTls7
sTls7's picture

Ten Yr at 1.96...   did anyone bet on this?  

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:28 | 5627856 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Hehehehehehenenenehe....

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 12:56 | 5628274 thistooshallpass
thistooshallpass's picture

"The last time the (10yr) yield traded below 2% on an intraday basis was back on Oct. 15. That day, $924 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds changed hands—the most in at least a decade—and the yield on the 10-year plunged to as low as 1.873% before recovering to close at 2.091%."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-government-bonds-continue-to-strengthen-...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/treasury-trading-volume-approac...

 

$924B? That's a lotta transactions. Should be an interesting day.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:11 | 5627778 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

This must be the escape velocity the central bankers were talking about... nice

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 12:08 | 5628039 Be_Optimistic
Be_Optimistic's picture

Didn't you see the memo? QE 4 is what is needed to reach escape velocity.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:11 | 5627782 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"If ya double up on the FRAUD"

Double up on Fraud and infinite QE.

QE 4, - Coming. James Bullard warned last year.

QE 5,

QE 6,

QE 7,

QE 8,

QE 9 

The Federal Reserve wrote Japan's economic playbook. Japan is a preview for the US. 

 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:12 | 5627786 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

"November durable goods orders revised to -0.9% from 0.7%"

Dont think the market noticed yet...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:13 | 5627793 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture
Consumer Companies Issue Most Negative Guidance Ever Despite Lower Gasoline Prices http://investmentwatchblog.com/consumer-companies-issue-most-negative-guidance-ever-despite-lower-gasoline-prices/
Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:14 | 5627796 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Ten year goes to 1.75%.

The Federal Reserve is pushing it down.

Then QE 4 announced once stocks drop to an unfomfortable Bankster level. 

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:14 | 5627800 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

Can't we add in hookers and blow ?

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:16 | 5627806 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

“However, it’s important to note that growth is merely slowing from an unusually powerful rate rather than stalling. Lower oil and fuel prices should also help foster stronger economic growth as we move into 2015, by reducing the fuel bills of households and companies. Measured across both sectors, input costs showed the smallest rise since April 2013 in December. Lower prices will also of course provide added leeway for interest rates to remain on hold for longer.

Money sentence in bold.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:20 | 5627827 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

No matter the reason, ZIRP is always in season.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:56 | 5627984 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Revised definition of ZIRP: Zero's Incredibly Repressive Penury.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:18 | 5627822 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

and the Dow rallies.....

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 11:19 | 5627828 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

If we include drugs and hookers there were millions of jobs saved or created.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 13:26 | 5628521 redd_green
redd_green's picture

Well, McDonalds did report a bad few quarters.   Must be Walmart is not hiring as much, now that they are threatened with paying over 50 cents an hour.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 14:04 | 5628764 Roger Shermanator
Roger Shermanator's picture

Iceberg, right ahead!

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