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FOMC Minutes Confirm Confused Fed Is Patient, Confident, And Fearful Of "International Situation"
Amid all of the confusion stemming from the December dissents and disinformation, the hope was that the Minutes might add some color on global risks, inflation, and lift-off timing.
- *FED OFFICIALS SAW RATE RISE UNLIKELY BEFORE APRIL, MINUTES SHOW (Patient)
- *MANY ON FOMC SAW DOWNSIDE RISKS TO U.S. FROM GLOBAL WEAKNESS (Fear)
- *FOMC SAW OIL, DOLLAR MOVES TEMPORARILY PUSHING INFLATION LOWER (Transitory)
So The Fed is positive (jobs, US Econ), negative (global risk contagion), and neither (everything's transitory).
Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 2018.5, 10Y 1.97%, Gold $1210, WTI $48.16
Sticking to the narrative:
- *FOMC SAW CHEAPER ENERGY COSTS AS NET POSITIVE FOR GDP, JOBS
- *FOMC SAW ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE, SOLID JOB GAINS
- *MOST ON FOMC SAW NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF BROAD WAGE ACCELERATION
- *FOMC: DOWNSIDE INTL RISKS `NEARLY BALANCED' WITH UPSIDE RISKS
- *FOMC STRESSED TIMING OF FIRST RATE RISE TO DEPEND ON NEW DATA
- *FOMC SAW `PATIENT' GUIDANCE AS GIVING MORE POLICY FLEXIBILITY
Hoping for a raise? Keep hoping:
... most participants saw no clear evidence of a broad-based acceleration in wages...
Here is the Fed's definition of "patient" (we already know what couple means):
Most participants agreed that it would be useful to state that the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy; they noted that such language would provide more flexibility to adjust policy in response to incoming information than the previous language, which had tied the beginning of normalization to the end of the asset purchase program. This approach was seen as consistent, given the Committee’s assessment of the economic outlook at the current meeting, with the Committee’s previous statement. Most participants thought the reference to patience indicated that the Committee was unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings.
And yet some were concerned this may box the Fed:
Some participants regarded the revised language as risking an unwarranted concentration of market expectations for the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate target on a narrow range of dates around mid-2015, and as not adequately allowing for the possibility that economic conditions might evolve in a way that could call for either an earlier or a later liftoff date.
The Fed's discussion of markets:
In their discussion of financial market developments, participants observed that movements in asset prices over the intermeeting period appeared to have been importantly influenced by concerns about prospects for foreign economic growth and by associated expectations of monetary policy actions in Europe and Japan. A couple of participants remarked on the apparent disparity between market-based measures of expected future U.S. short-term interest rates and projections for short-term rates based on surveys or based on the median of federal funds rate projections in the SEP. One participant noted that very low term premiums in market-based measures might explain at least some portion of this gap.
Blashphemy: the market saying the Fed may be wrong?
Another possibility was that market-based measures might be assigning considerable weight to less favorable outcomes for the U.S. economy in which the federal funds rate would remain low for quite some time or fall back to very low levels in the future...
Fed finally admits that oil is, lo and behold, plunging:
With lower energy prices and the stronger dollar likely to keep inflation below target for some time, it was noted that the Committee might begin normalization at a time when core inflation was near current levels, although in that circumstance participants would want to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back toward 2 percent over time.
.... And may have even led to a decline in longer-term inflation expectations, as in deflation?
Some participants were worried that the recent substantial fall in energy prices could lead to a reduction in longer-term inflation expectations, while others were concerned that the decline in market-based measures of inflation compensation might reflect, in part, that such a decline had already begun.
But the punchline, and the Fed's loophole as well as the hint at how Yellen will punk Eurodollar traders once again: blame the "international situation":
Participants discussed a number of risks to the economic outlook. Many participants regarded the international situation as an important source of downside risks to domestic real activity and employment, particularly if declines in oil prices and the persistence of weak economic growth abroad had a substantial negative effect on global financial markets or if foreign policy responses were insufficient. However, the downside risks were seen as nearly balanced by risks to the upside.
Then again, this is the Fed: the one place where 7 years if ZIRP is clearly not enough to make any conclusions:
participants generally agreed that it would take more time and analysis to draw definitive conclusions
Full minutes (pdf)
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YES NO MAYBE BABY!
NEVER under estimate the power of willful ignorance and greed. The American people want to believe everythign is fine, they trust our leaders and our dollar. This will go on a lot longer much to our shagrin. The American sheeple treat the US dollar like a lover.
Like that stage I was in around 5 years old when I convinced myself that Santa Claus had to be real and kept that going for a few more years because the alternative was too painful for me to contemplate (painful = no present left at the foot of my bed on Christmas morning by a bearded man in a red coat).
Santa isn't real!!??
"NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF BROAD WAGE ACCELERATION"
So prostitution revenues were flat, huh?
Fed released a statement. Big deal. It's a 100% bullshit piece anyway. But let's read it and believe these incompetent white-collar criminals.
F'n joke.
The REAL policy is kept behind closed doors. The fraud and coverups are kept from public eyes. Oil falls 55% in 3 months because of "supply glut"? WTF? Are you serious? The comic strip policy that this government and Fed is showing the public is so unbelievably stupid that any 5th grade kid could figure out that markets exist SOLELY and ONLY to perpetuate USD hegemony. Hence, oil falling to bankrupt Russia.
But the Fed is here to save the day and issue a "statement" about market conditions.
Come to my office and explain to me market conditions, Yellen you fucking douche.
FED = LIES + FRAUD + COVER-UPS
"Hence, oil falling to bankrupt Russia." -- Yes, but we do have a number of people in the oil production business in the U.S.
Moreover, I can tell you first hand that our military is pretty tight with these folks. I don't see how this sort of manipulation is going to work out well for those academics, bankers, and politicians that are behind the manipulation.
Seems pretty stupid to me.
F raud
E vasion
D uplicity
I love this site for its conspiracy facts but buddy, pushing the 'Santa aint real' card, is way out there.
"The American people want to believe everythign is fine"
I was watching a Jim Rickards video on youtube. One of the replies...
" The debt was due to all the bailouts of a mess that occurred in the previous administration.also, the US govt prints the money. It can pay any and all debts and fund any programs it wants. US govt is forever solvent"
I laughed...
Three things:
1: In what way do they treat the dollar like a lover? Please provide ANY basis for that comparison.
2: Your non-ironic use of the word "sheeple" makes me want to punch you in the kidney.
3: chagrin*
All rise
I thought we were supposed to genuflect and avert our eyes. Apparently I've been doing it wrong all this time.
• FOMC: BTFD
Please, let us know when the Fed has been audited, has returned all the titles and wealth that they stole, and all member/owners/managment has been executed. Nothing changes otherwise.
Will their much deserved executions be public and will they require an additional popcorn vendors liscense?
executed with extreme prejuudice
Yellenberg omen
The top secret Fed puts out minutes about all that was discussed. lol
Surprise, surprise. Market goes down a couple percent, Fed steps in with calming words. Been going on for nearly 30 years since Greenspan and getting more and more frequent over time.
Confuse your audience with contradictory, opaque, obtuse statements - that has worked so well for Yellen so far.
Been working since the Oracles of Delphi
YAY! The oracles have spoken again! Time to buy stawks fully leveraged!
Confusion is bullish
So how many years now have they been holding off raising interest rates as a temporary emergency measure that they have to wait for yet more data?
Useless tripe same shit as always.... They know nothing .
BTFD. Raising rates is impossible.
I do not think that word means what you think it means. Rates WILL rise. Not because it's the right thing to do or a good idea, but because they have simply decided its time for rates to rise.
Just because the Fed Funds Rate rises doesn't mean that everything will necessarily rise along with it this time, however.
Sounds like the hopeful rantings of a man who doesn't want to buy a sandwich. ;->
As long as yeller is alive, im beyond hopeful.
If I'm right about this, I'll be the only one on ZH. Enough reason to hold out hope.
Fed will fulfill their promise and raise rates .01%.
I take the upper and say 0.1%.
Every half year for the next 5 years, because Alan Greedspam has proven that's the right way to do it as nothing bad had happened while he was still doing it.
C'mon, the Fed has been raising rates next year for 6 years now.
Perhaps they need to switch to Viagra.
Love to see how Janet will square restarting QE with a supposed sub 6% unemployment rate, and a whopper 5% GDP in Q3.
They're trying to use propaganda as a confidence builder and want you to spend money that does not exist, IE borrow.
Be "patient" and let the collapse in petroleum products proceed. Guaranteed she won't have a problem with it if this stays status-quo for the next 6 months.
Everybody is confused, this must mean you buy stawks. Geenspam would be proud.
Dead Cat.
*MOST ON FOMC SAW NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF BROAD WAGE ACCELERATION
Can't have that happening!! So- another month of stealing from people that are responsible and save. Bigger thieves than Bernie Madoff.
Local government scum are doing their share of theft as well, my local property taxes just went up 6.3% on falling housing values and there was no explanation why, just we need the money , infrastructure ( lies) education spending ( lies ) this coming off a 3.5% hike last year on the same lies! Oh and the revenue enhancers are pulling people over left and right and grabbing as much money as they can to a secure their jobs. None of this is sustainable.
I promise to not raise interest rates until the data indicates that the growth of the US economy is well within the limits set by the economic conditions that would indicate that in order to maintain credibility we will raise rates in response to the global slowing of economic conditions within the parameters given us by guidance of unemployment and anemic business growth unless there appears on the horizon a timetable that would lead us to differing opinions that would then be resolved with mindfulness of the impact we would have on the average enterprise's well being and that of the American public unless the opposite is the case under which conditions we would prevail
Tyler couldn't have written a better run on sentence himself.
Bear, you are clearly a highly qualified candidate for Fed chairman.
No bureaucratic speak is complete without the use of the words "synergy" and "stakeholders"!!!
Gesundheit
"Call the Spin Doctors and have the system set to 'Baffle 'Em With Bullshit' mode this afternoon.
Anyone for another bottle of port?" -Yellen
"particularly if declines in oil prices and the persistence of weak economic growth abroad had a substantial negative effect on global financial markets or if foreign policy responses were insufficient"
TRANSLATION:
"If Draghi can't hold up his end of the QE deal, then we'll have to do it for him."
"However, the downside risks were seen as nearly balanced by risks to the upside."
Two risks that balances out ?
Two risks don't make a bull... or... errr... ahh... something like that.
Then again, maybe not. Higher Rates?! Unpossible!
Whatever the FED is or says - they are still backstopping casino banks with public money while punishing savers and the unborn.
The Federal Reserve is an organ of evil for the demon of Wall Street.
I just keep wondering if the "international situation" is that the Fed has promised to print a couple hundred billion to support Saudi Arabia if they keep the price of oil down.
That stairway to DOW 30k, it's just so nerve racking.....
But the unemployment rate is only 5.8% and QE-ended in October.. If you want your Fed. mandates you can keep your Fed. mandates.
The Shitshow must go on.
Did you honestly expect otherwise?
Who even pays attention to these releases anymore anyway...we get it...soft language for life and silver tongue speak to get another day or any excuse to kick that can just another inch...time buying tactics...
We heard the same thing at 1200 on the S&P and now above 2000 for months for of the same...nothing but a con to keep that money train rolling and Congress stocks getting lifted...
6 years of this shit...cannot believe we are still having this same conversation day in and out...we get it...the zombies don't and that is why they get away with it...there is no check and balance or accountability...no outrage...just distraction because most Americans would think you were speaking Jupitese if you tried to explain the wealth extraction and the mechanisms they have employed to do so in the past few years..
It ends either when the system collapses despite rhetoric and bailouts "inevitable" and tyranny is ushered in or when NWO bankers dont make it on the walk from their lobby to their awaiting limo...until then it won't change.
Well, the algos, for one. But I don't think there is any program in the world that could translate fedspeak. Or any human, for that matter. No wonder FOMC minutes always cause so much chop for an hour or so. But then, well... back to the "trend". It's your friend, you know. Doesn't wanna hurt you, just needs you to donate a tiny bit of your brain matter. Don't worry, you won't feel a thing.
So...
The official FOMC position is that they will absolutely, positively raise rates in March or April...unless they don't?
No. Yes. Maybe. Not. So?
Definitely!
Fed = FUBAR
I think the papyrus pirates are in over their head.
I think this was a rerun.
Dazed and Confused- Led Zep
The Feds been Dazed and Confused for so long it's not true
Wanted Inflation never bargained for you.
Hoping for a 3:30 ramp...
... DOWN!!!