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The "Strange Attractor" Returns: S&P Back To End Of QE3 Level, Crude Dumps 40% Since
Back on October 31, when QE3 officially ended (if only to be immediately replaced with both a boost to the BOJ's own monetization and the frontrunning of the ECB's QE), many predicted that the uncanny correlation of the Fed's balance sheet with the S&P would no longer be applicable. And indeed, for a few weeks, even as the Fed's balance sheet had stopped growing (delayed settlements that hit the H.4.1 are just that, and not indicative of actual open market purchases) the S&P continued to rise, hitting a level just shy of 2100 in the days before the new year.
And yet, calls for a decoupling between the Fed's balance sheet and the "market" may have been premature: following the latest selloff, the S&P's "strange attractor" is once again a very old and familiar one: the size of the Fed's assets, which - if only for the time being - have stopped growing.
Behold the markets since the end of QE3:
Ironically, those calling for a selloff after the end of QE3 were right, if wrong on the asset class: crude is down 40% since the end of QE3!
Shown in a longer timeframe, several more down days and the S&P will have caught down where the stock of the Fed's balance sheet suggests it should be:
And as a reminder, this is what happened when QE2 ended: the S&P ignored the balance sheet for a while back then too, however at least they still responded to the long end of the curve.
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FED = "Market". Market is a tool to maintain US hegemony and force foreign nations to comply, or die. It all comes down to control through monetary policies.
How do we know QE3 ended? They tell us it did, but they're all professional liars.
There is still a lot of dry powder.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=EXCSRESNW,
And where the fuck did that $300 billion come from between Dec. 10 and Dec 17? Something stinks.
Soooooooo...... BTFD?
Whew! I thought the FED forgot about the 1%. I sure picked the wrong day to give up drinking...
And that, my dear Whale War hippies, is how you effectively deploy a prop fouler!
rigged = 4% return overnight. What What doesn't day trade, but the Fed's predictability, like its ignorance, is just too easy to pass up. Their favorite marker is a 5% drawdown, their tool the E-mini.
The economy is really going to have to collapse for equities to finally get it, cuz they're in such a delisional state right now.
Sell oil buy stocks?
Through the looking glass...
Why the surprise. Remember the 800 up in three days a short while ago. Well your going to see this happen more and more. Any moron can now be an 'investor',,, just buy the dip.
They're playing us like a well tuned violin. As I have said before,,, EVERYTHING (All of it) is manipulated and nothing more than a scam. Charts don't matter, History doesn't matter, PE ratios don't matter, What the FED says or doesn't say doesn't matter, You name it--- it doesn't matter.
We live in a world run by criminal enterprises, by the criminals, of the criminals and for the criminals. Look around. Everything from police, to government to markets are owned and operated by the criminal class.
Once that point is accepted, everything else makes perfect sense. This is not being "negative" It is simply reality.
It's all great until they finally let it go.
so true - as said by i think Hendron - hedge fund mgr - i dont believe the metrics but i lost money because i am too rational - so i will not fight it anymore - and he has been for the last say 3-6 months going with the wave - so many, many serious people must be doing that
so as a contrarian if the shorts get killed over and over and this logic is adapted by serious people does it make it the end of the line?
or does it create no one on the other side and the Fed takes all the short posiiton to make up their losses on the way down when they make the decision it's over
So after the Fed bought bonds they would send the cash to JPM so JPM could buy oil futures, juicing inflation directly as a consumer tax. This kills the dollar, and raises all asset prices thusly.
I feel sorry for the guy who bought at 2100 :(
Pity is a fool's errand.