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A Tale Of Two Record Unemployments: Italy vs Germany
For the first time ever, Italy's unemployment rate is more than twice that of its European Union (one region, one monetary policy) neighbor Germany. As Germany's jobless rate fell for the 3rd month in a row to 6.5% (the lowest level in records going back more than two decades), Italian unemployment unexpectedly rose to a record high at 13.4% (well above the euro-region rate of 11.5%). Of course, while these two nations 'economic' state diverges by the most on record, bond yields are at record lows in both - leaving us (and everyone else) questioning, just what it is that ECB QE will do to help Europe's economies?
A Tale of Two Records...
and then there's this...
So just what is ECB QE going to do for Italy?
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Time to split the Euro into a Northern and Southern Euro.
Would Germany still have this success -- regardless of its currency -- if we assume that a country's currency derives its strength from its politics & economy, and not the other way around?
That'll quite likely happen, officially or not......
The ECB is not there to help any of the economies. Its there to keep the banks afloat long enough to strip any of the remaining assets of the nations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VI6tBwVjyOY
LOL let us see how they got to deflation, cut or trade with one of its biggest trading partners, RUSSIA, check that box. This could of all been avoided if they didnt play up the lame sanctions angle. Now they will make it worse by Helicopter Money LOL. What a bunch of IDIOTS.
Ok Süd Tirol, you're up.
Austria wants you back, and methinks -- you want to go back as well.
All they need to do is print some Greek & Italian "commemorative" euro notes.
Have you ever tried to spend a Scottish printed Pound in London?
just what it is that ECB QE will do to help Europe's economies?
Why, Gold goes up bitchez!!!
Time to break up the US in five parts: South (Fat mamas), West (Porn), North (Mountains), East (Banks and Volvo drivers), Center (Meat).
All interconnected by Warren Buffets new private railway company lines.
"Time to split the Euro into a Northern and Southern Euro."
megabanks on both sides of the pond would love that. ah, the bets that could be made on this. and the derivatives! wouldn't that be swell?
we could spend plenty of hours debating here on ZH about the over- or under- valuation of both, and versus the dollar
tell me, are the FX markets rigged or not? where is the CHF hiding? is your trust in markets still unshakable? did you see what happens to other currencies? the Ruble?
you simply don't get it, eh? the Mighty Dollar would crush the two EURos by pitting them against each other in the cockfight arena and betting on them
in europe we could as well raise the white flag and adopt the dollar, and stop resisting this ebb and flow of it
TL;DR -
We shouldn't split the EUR in half, to prevent currency speculation. Nevermind the transfer union (target2 and bailout loans liability) and the abject poverty in the South. Its all worth it as long as we can prevent those evil currency speculators.
(This is code-Ghordo speak for -- "The European Union Dream is worth these woes right now, because we are uniting one people." Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.)
I have no idea what this TL;DR - means
meanwhile, you are again using a lot of empty propaganda items against my thesis, or many other questions you have never answered, as far as I know
1) are the FX markets free and unrigged?
2) what is the amount of funds that are available for FX speculation versus the real economy? what shakes the dog? it's dinosaur sized tail
3) why did we europeans repeatedly attempt to have currency grids? where is the difference between that and the EUR?
4) what is the net result of the introduction of the EUR in the USD positions of the eurozone central banks? FX reserves?
5) what is the CHF doing? why? what is happening to the Ruble? why?
meanwhile I have explained lots of things to you. Including Target2. And the "abject poverty" theme is a tad more complicated then that. cue in that median Portuguese, Spaniards and Italians are - funny that - richer then median Germans
but what do you do with all that? you continuosly insinuate that it's all for the "European Union Dream"... even when the very EU federalists moan against the EUR's effects on their dream
overhelming evidence? nobody wants that. it would be like noting that the Damn Squid wants an eurozone QE of half a trillion, five times the net borrowing forecasted for this year
that would be overhelming evidence: nearly balanced budgets, with the whole eurozone spending only 90 billions more then it taxes
1) No
2) No idea. A lot.
3) First with the LMU to compete with the GBP and then with the EUR to keep up with the USD
4) Who cares. I thought we both hate the banks?
5) Why? Because die Schweiz is a small place, and without the fixed peg, no one would buy anything in Switzerland without renigging on Schnangin.
At the end of the day, my "empty propaganda" has a lot more substance to it than your "empty propaganda" does. You take articles like this, where jobless rates are illustraed clearly in the above graph, and go "yes but ..." and then follow it with some nonsense like "its worth it because it prevents speculation" or "bigger is better" or other such ridiculous talking points.
Your ideas are not noble, new, or beneficial to anyone in Europe, save Brussels. The North pays through the nose, the South suffers, and Brussels and Frankfurt gets richer. My ideas of a NEURO and EUR are new, when compared to yours, more noble than yours are -- as it would alleviate suffering, and if a bunch of FX traders get buned in the process - fine, and my ideas would actually benefit people other than the Elits in Brussels and the Banker Squid like creatures here in FFM.
You advocate for the slavery of Europe which is idealised in a dream that can never happen -- due to culture. I advocate for freedom.
1) then why should we even think of having unrigged markets playing with two smaller currencies before they are cleansed of this unrigging? currently, the EURUSD is in theory the biggest, deepest, most liquid market of the world... anything less then that would be shaken by the players of the game like a toy by children
2) a lot more then a lot. if your gf goes to the market with two eggs and we have one billion each to bet on the price she gets for them, and we can steer the market for that... another argument for size, in this imperfect world
3) compete with the GBP? sorry, that is a misrepresentation. the Bank of England wanted to stay in the grid. Soros noticed that it wanted a bit too much, and the rest is history
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4) this has little to do with the banks directly and everything with the Mighty USD. and FX reserves
Look at the Russian National Bank. it needs every USD/FX reserve it can take hold of. It even has to squeeze Gazprom for them
The net result of the EUR is that the EuroSystem needs less USDs. (in comparison, before the EUR every and each national bank, including the BuBa, was stuffed with them)
The very moment we would split it, both halves would have to buy trillions of dollars. As FX Reserves
Just to keep the currencies stable whenever the tides of the Mighty One come and go (and to keep the volatility due to the bets on them in check). like the current retreating USD tide that is nearly killing the Ruble, thanks to the additional move in the oil markets
A split of the EUR would cement the role of the Dollar as Global Reserve Currency for decades to come
Of course, if you want to keep the Masters of The Universe and their megabank/primary dealer monstrosities firmly in their seat, it is a wonderful idea, even better then going back to the old currencies. Let them play with our currencies, shake them with their endless supply of FED fiat, fed by a near endless supply of USG debt (thanks to endless war and military expenses)
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5) Switzerland might be a small place, but it has a medium-sized currency that has little to do with it's real economy, and a lot with the search for "safe havens"
what I'm writing here has nothing to do with Brussels, and nothing about nobility of ideas
*sigh*
3) LMU = Latin Monetary Union -- the previously failed attempt to create monetary union in Europe, which ended when two of the currency holders (Austria Hungry and France) decided to go to war with one another.
I live in Germany. I imagine that a NER/USD would also be a very liquid market, just like the GBPUSD is -- just 4x larger. Betting against the Bundesbank wasn't that common when Germany was alone on the DM -- although the FX markets habitually raped the French Central Bank as well as its cousin in Rome. Why Germany and his taxpayer's needs to pay to keep the FX markets from cannabalizing the PIIGS is beyond me. Some stupid fucking "all Europeans are the same people" bullshit that keeps getting flogged around in here. I want the taxes that I pay -- in whatever currency I use -- to remain as close to where I live as possible. Due to the bailouts (Greeks got north of 500 billion in debt forgiveness, bailouts, and debt guarantees, etc., etc.,) this isn't the case, due to this EU/EUR bullshit.
What happens to the USD reserves that the ECB holds right now? Do those just *poof* disappear? No -- if an amicable divorce, things could be split up. In chaos -- I hope the German government has the balls to roll into the ECB with the bundespolizei, confiscate all the AG there, as well as all USD FX reserves -- and thereafter tell everyone to fuck themselves and drop the mic.
A NEURO would eat the USD alive -- and is one of the worst things that could happen to the Fed as people searching for "safe haven" currencies and debt would flock to debt and NEUROS in a central bank that doesn't fix its problems with CTRL+P. As trillions of reserves worldwide pivot from EUR to NEURO and from USD into NEURO, the Velocity of money for USD would skyrockt sending real rates through the roof for among other things, the 10 year T-Bill. This would create a crisis of dramatic proportions in the USSA.
The NEURO would quickly become the world's standard for currency and debt. The Fed to overcome said crisis would have to CTRL+P like a motherfucker to keep its debt markets liquid which would further people dropping the USD in favor of the NEURO. It would be the end of the US's dominance.
We've war-gamed this one out at work a few years ago -- and since then, things have just gotten worse. Could you imagine waking up one day, just to realize that Frankfurt-Berlin axis is now the most important financial/political axis in the world? Yeup. Exactly what would happen with a NEURO.
the USD has benefitted greatly due to the slutty EUR. If the NEURO can come into being, it changes the world for the next 100 years. It would be a once-in-a-lifetime event.
look, you have so many things wrong here I have to stop and go for lunch
one little item. "A NEURO would eat the USD alive". Answer: Gresham's Law
a NEURO would have to buy trillions of additional USDs, exactly the way China did
your "The NEURO would quickly become the world's standard for currency and debt" totally neglects the facts around the USD, or Gresham's Law. Yes, the FED would print like mad and the NEURO BuBa would have to buy them like mad, particularly if Germany is a major part of the new monetary alliance
You can't have a solid, strong, "safe haven" currency and a German export machine at the same time (coupled with a balanced federal budget in Germany as icing on the cake)
Not with the current King Dollar
Otherwise, the CHF would already have taken over the world. Or gold would have returned already
Your entire premise, re; Greshman's Law is that the USD remains king. If the USD fails to remain king -- all your conclusions are not only wrong -- but backwards.
As the NEURO comes into existance, many FX EUR reserves would be sold and NEURO bought in its stead. The ECB in Paris would have the velocity of money rise as all these Eurs come out of reserves and into circulation. Same with the USD. Because the NEURO BuBa would be (at least perceived to be) more conservative than the Fed -- people would also sell USD (trillions of them) in FX reserves to get into the Neuro. As with the EUr, the USD Velocity of money would increase creating a higher rate of inflation, as M and V are both increasing which causes either P or y to increase. The T bill would go up, and the Fed will have to step in, a new QE -- and now you have an increasing M and V at more accelerated rates as other FX reserves pivot from USD into NEURO -- due to this printing as foreign nations move to preserve spending power.
And yes, you can have a solid, strong "safe haven" currency AND the export machine continue. Germany has to import all its natural resources and the cost of raw materials as well as energy here in the Fatherland would fall through the floor. Moreover, if this is so certain, explain the US economy from 1945 - 1971 and Germany from 1948-1999. Historically a strong currency goes hand in hand with an export oriented economy. The new "weak currency = better exports" is a new gig in these banker currency wars.
"The North pays through the nose, the South suffers, and Brussels and Frankfurt gets richer"
How much does the North pay? I wonder if you have a number. Did you notice that comments often attack Germany for "profiting most"
How much would the South suffer less by defaulting/printing/devaluing? Are you sure that Tyler would agree that printing/devaluing is the best method to riches? Did you notice the Austrian School view of this blog, and the usual comments about printing being the worst way to "fix" things? DOES THE ECB "PRINT"? What has the ECB done, in the last two years?
Brussels and Frankfurt? Hasn't Brussels a fixed budget of one trillion per seven years? Fixed and paid by the members? How does Brussel profit from the EUR? Brussels could do the exact same thing with a ledger of 29 currencies, or two. There are computers for that
Aren't you part of Frankfurt's financial crowd? How does Frankfurt "profit from the EUR"? compared to.. what? London? NY's Wall Street?
Yeup, and these comments are WRONG.
Look at annual German growth rates before the EUR and after. 1.3% retard rate after, and compounding is a bitch. Germans loses -- EVERY YEAR - in opportunity costs -- over a half trillion EUR (1,000,000,000,000.00 DM @ 99 exchange rate) by being a member of the club. That is a ton of money. They do not make it up by selling VWs and BMWs to the Spanish right now -- as no one can afford them there.
For some countries -- printing is the only thing they know how to do. Expecting them to turn off the priting presses one day and everything be fine is insane. Can never happen. This is what the EMZ has tried to do to the PIIGS, and you can see the issues now. All your goodie-two-shoes "European Unity" bullshit wishful thinking will not change a thing. Its why the EMZ has been a complete basket case since 2008 and it will never improve as long as the EMZ continues to exist in its current form.
The ECB does not print, because it cannot. But oh does it want to.
Brussels and the idiots that work there have said over and over again how important to the EU the EMz is -- some even saying without it -- the EU would cease to exist. I'll let your own idiot politicians explain this concept to you.
I am part of Frankfurt's financial crowd. I see -- daily -- its hideous financial underbelly, and drive myself home everynight -- that so much misery is inflicted on so many -- most of whom are completely oblivious to the economic carpet bombing taking place in their lives -- due to no other reason than this stupid fucking blue and yellow flag. Fuck the EU. Fuck Brussels. Fuck Mario Draghi. Fuck the ECB. Fuck the whole project. I can tell you -- absent everyone ceding national soverignty of budgets over to Brussels in the coming half decade -- the project is almost out of steam. At this point in time I hope it explodes and we wake up one day where Flanders is part of the Netherlands and there are EU cleptocrats hanging from lightpoles everywhere on the former Belgian Autobahns.
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You want people to benefit from the economy? Give them a stable currency. Have their governments to balance their budgets. Keep banking as a facility of the real economy, not the bully skimming all the profits
Then you are on the path of freedom, out of slavery. Yes, quite like the Austrian School. I do advocate for freedom, here in the eurozone
(meanwhile, aren't you advocating for "moar" spending in countries of which you aren't a citizen and that you hold in contempt? like "that's the way they have to be"?)
Explain to me -- how the ECB's "Stable Currency" is helping;
1) The People in Greece, general unemployment is 28% and youth is 64%
2) the People of Spain, general unemployment is 24% and youth is 60%
3) the People of Italy, Ireland, Portugal and France?
How has the ECB's "stable currency" helped the Germans get back 16 years of half trillion EURs of foregone GDP (add that into the TVM and the numbers become truly unbearable to look at anymore).
The answer is -- it hasn't. The ECB is a tool to help a select group of people gain an enormous amount of money and power. To defend the project at this point in time -- given your knowledge of how the system works -- makes you, as a defender the same as the Vichy French.
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I just came here to read the comments.
The plan:
We will start with Italy and Spain. We will order rating agencies to attack, exclude them from markets and throw them to the ECB trap. They will be forced to take similar measures, as Greece did, in order to receive liquidity. Then, we will attack France and Germany.
You said...Spain? That Spain that was framed against Germany in the 90s as "iberic tiger"? That once poster child of a successful new capitalism soon to dwarf the old ecomic powers? That Spain whose youth is now hellbent to make it to the north and learn German?
If they are educated, then I hope they come. German gets easy to learn after you've been working on it for a few months.
If they are unskilled -- I guess its something the US and Germany will have in common -- hotel maids in both countries speaking the same language.
German liberals prefer uneducated immigrants. It is sooo racist to choose only the well educated.
what's with the 8-point spike in ES? did yeller just pull a bugger out of her nose?
It was 16 at one point and most likely has to do with Evans saying there most likely won't be a rate increase until 2016. The Fed speakers always come out at any sign of weakness.
The ECB is not there to help any of the economies. Its there to keep the banks afloat long enough to strip any of the remaining assets of the nations. Its doing a stellar job.
it is a bit more complicated then that. it starts with the fact that the ECB is there to help the eurozone's national banks
which then each have two tasks: to protect the national debt and the national banking system
"keeping the banks afloat" has a different dimension when the banks are less private and more entangled with the national states
a small bit of evidence: whenever I look at the balance sheets of megabanks, I note that half of the profits before taxes are for banker compensation, mostly bonuses. meanwhile, the EU has introduced a Banker Bonus Cap
could you even imagine the US Congress putting a Banker Bonus Cap on the Masters of The Universe like Jamie Dimon? hell, could you imagine any law concerning banking in the US that was not written by bankers?
Looks like Germany is winning the war.
Unlikely. The anglosaxons hold a firm grip on Germany's media and political class. It is easy to contain Germany given its lack of critical mass, jealous neighbours and ultimately its dumbness to play by the rules of its overlords.
Germans are the original Saxons, and the Angles are both sides of the German/Danish border
The German public is turning away from the mass media
off topic.
QE won't help at all. The Germans have a sweet deal going. They get to run persistent, massive, job-creating trade surpluses while lending their own savings (that their own citizens and companies refuse to spend or invest because they're so "thrifty"), stupidly to the Souhern Europeans to buy those very same goods. They win twice....or until the Greeks can't pay it back.....
Then they get to bitch and moan and take a holier-than-thou stance to those very same Greeks or Spaniards about how "stupid" they are.
What a joke.
If the Spaniards, Greek's, etc had any rocks they'd join together (realizing they have much less to lose at this point) and tell Germany (and their banks) to fuck themselves.
Many people working in Germany make no money whatsoever. It's slave labor. Better unemployed in Mom's basement and the summer at the beaches in Italy than working for nothing in Germany. Who wants to work for 4 Euros or even 8 fucking Euros an hour?
Many portuguese work at 3.25 10% or 20%
The only people that make cash like that are those who work at jobs that don't require a skill.
Targy,
I am seeing LOTS of folks who are working 400 Euro jobs, sometimes several. I am also seeing lots of people being let go from permanent jobs and coming back as temps. The only point I want to make is that the employment statistics in Germany are also mis represented, just as they are in the states.
Gav
Definitely.
The article is bogus.
I do business in Europe and the various country's cultures, especially Germany and Italy couldn't be farther apart.
Germans are law abiding , solid citizens but Italians are not. I don't blame the Italians as they have no trust in their corrupt government. The Italians work under the table and use the black market extensively. So the figures used in the article are bullshit; comparing the employment numbers make no sense whatsoever as the Italian ones are not in the least accurate.
the article is anyway based on the premise that the ECB has the same targets set as the FED: price stability and full employment
but the ECB is set to have only one: price stability
Price stability; Inflation/Deflation are synonyms.
zeeee price stabilitaaaaaay. we need some austrians at the helm.
Germany has a vat tax which acts like an import tariff to protect their domestic manufacturing. If you ever been to Germany 9 out of 10 cars on the road are German. Germany has protectionist trade policies which puts them at an advantage over Italy. We need that type of patriotism here.
The USA needs to bring back the import tariff on foreign made goods like we had from 1776 to 1981 which protected American manufacturers and jobs. That traitor Reagan who scrapped the import tariff is esponsible for the start of the job outsourcing to China. No one ever talks about this fact.
Funny how in Germany taxes are high, regulations are high, unions are strong yet their economy is doing quite well?
Any GOP tea baggers want to explain this to me??
During the 70s the last TV manufactured in the US was Zinith
The company was previously an American manufacturer of radio and television receivers and other consumer electronics, and was headquartered in Lincolnshire, Illinois.
Zenith encountered increasing financial difficulty as their market share progressively went to Japanese companies. In 1974, Zenith, concerned about losing market share to Japanese companies, filed suit in federal court in Philadelphia against the major Japanese television and electronic manufacturers charging violation of United States Antitrust Laws and the Anti dumping Act of 1916.
By the end of 1983, Zenith had spent millions of dollars in connection with the litigation.
In 1981, the trial court entered summary judgment for all defendants on the antitrust and anti dumping claims and dismissed the lawsuits.
Plaintiffs appealed and the appellate court affirmed the summary judgment for Sears, Roebuck & Co., Motorola, Inc. and Sony. In March, 1986 the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in favor of the defendants on Zenith’s antitrust claims.
Zenith’s hopes to salvage a victory on the claims that the defendants violated the Antidumping Act of 1916 ended in April 1987 when the Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal from the U.S. District Court of Appeals in Philadelphia which upheld the ruling of the trial court in favor of the Japanese.
My x wife conjures up fantasy's too
I think Curtis Mathes lasted longer than Zenith-they were considered 'Americas SONY'- they were well made, high quality, modular and had a 4 year warranty; Repairs cost $20 in home and free at the factory; A repair man would carry all 20 compnents in his truck and a repair usually was done by swapout in less than 20 mins. My uncle and grandmother had one
Their economy is doing quite well ...compared to the rest of the shit show that isn't saying much.. and I'm not into this eCONomy hype either bunch of fraudulant fucking numbers written by lying thieving shylocks
Germany has been doing so well because people there have accepted austerity since the reunification of Germany. Ever since, they have been paying more tax and have accepted lower salary increases compared to the rest of Europe (the unions are not so strong in Germany as you think). This flooded German banks with Euros which they invested in other European countries. This functioned as an export subsidy because with this money people in other European countries bought German stuff that was more competitve than stuff from other European countries (because of lower salaries as part of production costs). This gave Germany a competitive edge. When economic troubles started, other European countries could not externally devalue with the Euro so they needed to devalue internally meaning lowering salaries and pensions. So they have no money left to buy new things anymore. Austerity has put many companies and SME in Europe out of business or making them available for takeover by German companies. So effectively it has put the competition out of business.
Yes, the Germans work hard and make good stuff but their willingness to accept lower salaries caused a flooding of 'cheap German Euros' which put the rest of Europe out of business. But of course, these other countries also have themselves to blame.
Oh yeah, and the German banks got bailed out when Greece was in trouble. German banks made bad investments in Greece. True capitalism says 'your own trouble' but they got bailed out. The first bailout of Greece was to bailout German and French banks. Also part of the bailout was a requirement to buy German military stuff with that because the party must go on.
The reunification of Germany and the acceptance Europe wide of the Euro was the best thing that happened to Germany. Germans are conscientious and law abiding people and are willing to make sacrifices. This combined with clever economic policies made Germany top dog in Europe but the austerity they more or less imposed on others is not going down well with these others.
on Greece - French banks had an exposure almost twice the size of German banks, they got bailed out because the French government intervened when Merkel started publically discussing a hair cut
I propose a somewhat different tariff system. I see no reason to impose punitive tariffs on countries like Germany, where people are paid a living wage. Of course, in Germany, we have a ridiculous 19% VAT, which is added to 10% customs on foreign goods. Therefore, I also see no reason why the US should not have an approximate 20% tariff on goods purchased from Germany. You take an approximate 8-9% for state and local sales taxes, then you get the 20% tariff to equalize things. It should be same for all higher wage countries, where trade should be based upon comparative advantages. There is a good reason that most Germans drive German-built cars. They fucking rock, and the quality (though certainly has fallen considerably in the past decade) is still very good.
However, I would propose tariffs based upon the absolute advantage of slave level wages in China, etc., with a 100% tariff. I'd make it 200% on goods manufacturered for so-called "American" companies. I'd extend that to services provided by Indian "hi-tech" companies, who have destroyed the futures and livelihoods of American tech people.
I am an economic nationalist expat, living in Germany. Don't believe everything you raed about our socialist paradise. The more third-world parasites we take in, the worse things get.
BTW, as a conservative republican who believes that a lot of what the "tea partyers" support is a good thing, I would like to invite you to go teabag yourself, you doublejointed piece of shit.
So in Germany taxes are high, regulations are high, unions are strong, yet their economy is doing quite well?
All of the things the GOP tell us are bad Germany is doing. Ironic huh?
We don't have shadowstats, so the truth is hard to come by.
Like I just wrote above, don't believe everything you read.
BTW, Socialism works quite well as long as you have an homogenous population, where most everyone is contributing. But the more multi-culti we become, the worse things get.
Did you even both to read my post?
(See Wildbad below).
For Italy, 2 words: Lega Nord
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lega_Nord
Amen, and amen!
No analysts make any effort to distinguish between unemployment and over-breeding - Italy has a HUGE over-breeding problem and a small unemployment problem.
Apparently, two morons breeded your ass.
Over-breeding? Where did you get that idea? Italy's birth rate is 1.4. Does that indicate over-breeding to you?
The most over-populated country in Europe, from centuries of domination by the catholic cult.
I have lived there, have you ????
my view from the black forest:
Blow and hookers for italy, jobless stats fake and socialist overdraw for Doitschland.
There is no good equivalant to shadowstats here but the Chermans are on the same playbook as the Amerkans. The delay used to be two years but as things accelerate toward the cliff the gap narrows. There's no more room left to brake and soon my docile neighbors will lose faith in their tribal leaders' layered lies.
The bread and circus distraction is in full swing here and there will be lot of stunned huns here when the music stops. At least in the the southern lands they have been conditioned a bit via austerity.
Here in zee north the winter will be cold. Stock up on cabbage and firewood and stay away from the cities.
Wenige Wörter. Viel Wahrheit.
Bravo!