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On This Day In History, The Baltic Dry Index Has Never Been Lower
Must be over-supply too, right? Just like oil prices... The Baltic Dry Index - which apparently is only relevant when it is rising - has never been lower at this time of year.
Perhaps GDP expectations, bond yields, crude oil prices, and credit risk are on to something about the global economy after all?
Charts: Bloomberg
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Bullish!
... because deflation is always bullish.
Someone please tell the tribe to print more green shit.
"How does this affect ME?" - Herb Tarlek
Are you ready for some cheap bauxite?!?!?!?!?
Hey, Cramer, is 192.4 kilos enough smack to cover the shipping cost on the bauxite?
No cocaine for Europe, it's only for Wall St.
Jew Princess Janet Yellen is looking out for the middle class, just like Jew Bernanke & Jew Greenspan.
TimmaaaaH!!!
Mr Hanky!!! The September Poo!!!
Does that cover the dime bag I got up to the ISS?
Hehehehehehehe. Screw you World Government!
We're Interstellar now!
Outlanders only!
Something isn't right about that story.
That would be $4158 per gram.
Should be about $5 million wholesale in NYC for 192 keys of coke. The street value would be around $25 million. Even cooking it up into crack wouldn't bring the street value to $100 million
$800m Guyana Dollars = $4m USD = $20 per gram.
Want you ships? you can keep your ships.
want your empty container? you can keep your empty container
Want to abandon your boat with all the empty containers on it? You can abandon your boat with all the empty containers on it.
Now that made me laugh!
Elle --the best eGirl evah-- found some of those empty containers...but what she was really shopping for was a new place to park her double-wide. But area #668 is kinda cute, you say...yeah, but even though she hasn't been there long, she's over it. If anybody's got any ideas, and would like to "show me, state" which area is better ;)
Fill it with oil and park it off the coast to drive the oil price down to $20 again when idiot specs get margin called again.
This follows 100 Inane posts from Zerohedge titled "On this day, gas prices have never been higher" over the past 3 years. Of course high gas prices are bad and low gas pricesa re bad and high shipping rates are bad and low shipping rates are bad. We get it.
Ahhh. Yeah. Stability is your friend. High sigma events are not. How fucking hard is that to understand?
I guess you get to work by flipping your car end over end at speed.
volatility
Yeah but at least we know for sure that massive amounts of unpayable national debt is all good!
alright
who flogged
the dolphin...
I have a boat and a pen. Fear not, mofos.
Dow 20,000.
good night.
The only thing that matters in this Monopoly economy is the Baltic Avenue index. The Fed has a couple of hotels there, and we all just rolled onto that space. The game is rigged, the house always wins.
You've all given up! What are you even doing here! Let go that the Fed has manipulated the market for 100 years. It will end badly for them. You don't think that? You don't think it will happen soon? Oil, BDI, the money aggrigate has quintupled in 7 years, UE is very high in U-6 terms, and all data and accounting is manipulated.
There will be a black swan that shits all over the camel's back, everything will change over night, and your last post is,
If I believed that the Fed cares about the coming implosion, I would agree with you. But I think they want the implosion. What's left of the middle class will be gone. There will be a few percent who have everything, and everyone else. Neo Feudalism is coming. China is the model.
We the people of the United States of America will never be compromised. Take that to the bank.
I took it to the bank. Turns out the Fed owns it.
You think the Fed will make everyone turn in their guns? You think the military will occupy domestically? You are joking. We will take back our rights when the time is right. Until then quite your bitching and man up.
At some point the Army will make their move. However, it will be the colonels, not the generals.
I want to up vote you. I do. But if I was a betting man as to which side will win I have to say the fed has the upper hand by a wide margin. 60% of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck. The fed can print. Who has the staying power?
The dollar is a relic and a figment of your imagination. It has no intrinsic value. WHere is the staying power in that, never mind no currency lasts as the world reserve for very long, fiat or otherwise. Currencies come and go like the tide.
Well I'm not surrendering my ICBM that's far sure.
I won that in a poker game with poopie pants and I can't WAIT for the forth of July!
So 60% of America has no staying power even in illusory terms. And....?
LTER appreciate your view re The Fed but I think they'll try to capitalize on the coming implosion and have contigency plans to do so for sure but its risky and I think they're very scared. Even psychopaths understand that "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face". Just my opinion and something to consider.
I agree there are wildcards in the deck. But I also believe the Fed is dealing and the odds are heavily against us.
Bonds crash, dollar crashes, stocks crash, and what, Janet serves everyone donuts?
Well if fuel is down so will costs of shipping stuff, right?
The cost of shipping oil is way down. So that's bullish for oil, I think.
So if oil is cheaper, that makes shipping oil cheaper, and if shipping oil is cheaper then the cost of oil goes down, and if oil goes down fuel goes down and that makes shipping oil cheaper....
Yo, when is we get free oil? EBT Oil for me
That is part of it, but there is more tied up in there. The oil glut reflects the lower demand for oil because no one is building or selling any thing. No one is shipping because no one is building or selling anything. It is a feedback loop that spirals downward. Oil goes down because fewer folks want it. Cost of shipping goes down because oil goes down and no one needs the service.
Deflation my friend is blowing in the wind.
Deflation is in the wind but because the Fed and all central banks printed the shit out of their currencies there is a tornado coming that is hyperinflation. This is when people will not be able to allocate price in a timely manner. One day gold is worth $1200 next it's $2400. One day a can of corn is $1 next it's $10. No one will know how to price fiat when they begin to lose faith in it. Sears stock will go to 0 because they have no revenue because things like TVs can't sell worth a dime. Well, maybe a silver one ;)
From my reading I see deflation then Hyperinflation, sort of like drawing back an arrow and shooting it the air (with rocket assist).
I think what will happen is people rushing to Sears and other places to buy shit before their money becomes worthless. Most will buy food, but others will buy damned near anything else that will hold better value than cash.
I agree they printed the shit out of currencies and were hoping for real growth but all they got was no growth with inflation or stagflation. They saw that, Bernanke cried himself to sleep while writing a nasty "I hate you" letter to his alma mater and lost his J.O.B. Yellen is trying to exit stage left without anyone seeing and without the market freaking out. They fear the market they have manipulated. It's like a caged tiger that they have been poking and starving for the last 6 years and now the gate is slowly starting to open. Seems like the bear comes knocking at the feds door before every big fed announcement, almost like a warning. If the Fed doesn't get out of the way, one day they will yell stop and the market will roll right over them like a steam roller running over a flee.
Fed doesn't want hyperinflation, no way. I'm sure they look at Argentina and shit themselves. That would be a total loss of control on their part because the dollar is what keeps them in the bullshit business and Janet knows she wouldn't make much coin hooking.
That is my expectation, deflation first, then probably hyperinflation. I can see stops and starts and stalls, rather than a smooth line down the slope, then parabolic. My mental chart sees it as a jagged progression down, then out of the park.
I hope people are smart enough to buy "anything." I fear they won't even get that.
Global macro is reflecting what GDP used to, before deflators re-jigged so -GDP became +GDP. i.e. the downward multi-year slide already happened and unemployment benefits cushioned it, while legal ganja and social media helped keep people feeble, pliable and barely able to remember the next appointment with their case-manager.
Peace man.
The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as seen by examining the certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios of portfolio strategies that exploit the BDI growth rate. In addition, the BDI growth rate predicts the returns of commodity indexes, and we find some evidence for joint predictability of stock and commodity returns in a system of predictive regressions. Finally, the BDI growth rate predicts the growth in global economic activity, establishing further BDI’s role in revealing a link between the real and financial sectors.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1747345
What's the going rate for "slightly used" container ship? Can you get 3% subprime deal on one of those babies?
Only if you hit the payday loan sharks that kept the shale co floating.
You can always buy something in credit, sell it for USD and buy for USA a ""slightly used" container ship"
A ship can remain empty longer than you can remain solvent.
The Baltic dry Index does not matter as long as I have Amazon drones!
Get to work Mr. Bullard!, I mean Mr. Evans!
Prepare for the worst.
Hope for the best.
Prepare for the wurst!
Hope for the breast!
And it then goes on to double in the next 4 months. LOL
All this means is they are going to print like a mother fucker's mother fucker!!!!!!!!!!
Indeed the ECB is about to go nuclear in the QE game. And why not, it turned around the US economy, and it made the UK a growth engine. Now the EU will QE to prosperity. Let the printing begin!
Now we know why oil prices have tanked. Global economy is screwed. Money printing has run it's course and can no longer help. Trade is down, oil demand is down, only the liar media claims things are looking up!
I laughed when looking at that chart of the different markets. It's like the S&P is giving the other markets the finger and is off to vacation in bora bora while everyone else is being shipped to Liberia via row boats.
Remember when I said that Quantitative Easing will kill world trade due to excessively excessive excess of excess reserves?
Prediction fulfilled
yeah well, nothing exceeds like excess.
Please someone explain this: If I take that same chart, and adjust the scales on the LHS, I can make it tell just about any convergence or divergence I want. Why should this chart mean anything?
The sky has been falling on this index far too long with no results
So it is no longer a key leading indicator because everything else has been propped up in spite of it for so long. As a matter of fact it is almost a contra-indicator. Quite frankly we're beginning to believe the market can levitate on its own without any indicators of any kind. Almost like re-animation of a zombie. The conjurers have their dream come true. It's ALIVE!
The BDI has been moved much lower on our consolidated indicators list. This may change when the undoubted forthcoming charts and graphs from ZH attempt to pull us right back in again proving otherwise. However, we will remain skeptical until the markets have been cleansed of outside influences. And that won't be happening until after everyone gets to see first hand what the whole Go Green! bullshit is all about. So we hope to see you on the other side
As it happens, I like my martini's Baltic Dry.
submerged
not shaken....
another zero hedge boat owner..
Quantitative Easing...sounds like the Terminator taking a dump. Say it in Arnold's voice.
~some comedian guy.
Yes, but it has nothing to do with demand slumping into a protracted global trade collapse, as that's just not on the cards - global macro trend notwithstanding. And only 507 US Banks have failed since the beginning on 2008. Before the Great Depression banks were dropping like flies for years, bad loans, sickened real economy, low wages, high real unemployment, massive malfeasance, epic human vanity. It's nothing like that now, the US economy is in an emphatic broad-based recovery, almost a boom. Steady hands are at the wheel this time, Janet will not let bad things occur this time, fully alert and on the job.
"... You just need good men. ..." - Das Boot
Dryer than a rattlesnake choking down scorpion on a phoenix hyway in the Baltics.
I work as a shipping analyst, and I have noticed you are using the BDI as "measure of world trade". This is completely wrong....its a pure shipping market index, and the reason for its plunge the last few years is due to oversupply of vessels. Shipment of Dry Bulk volumes have increased markedly since 08, but this is nearly SOLELY due to Coal and Iron Ore imports to China. What will happen to these volumes as the credit bubble there implodes is another matter (coal imports have already fallen a great deal the last year).
Of course these vessels are a ridiculous malinvestment stemming from ZIRP. After the financial crisis, 95% of shipowners could not raise capital themselves to buy these vessels. The finance are increasingly provided by "hedge funds" and private equity...Therefore we have seen the massive surge in order placements as well as vessel deliveries the last few years. This does not only include Dry Bulk ships, but also Dirty Tankers, Clean Tankers, Chemical Carriers, LNG and LPG vessels.
All this is a "bubble", and vessels prices have to collapse (which we are starting to see)... which will have wider repercussions, as several major Banks in Germany, Norway, etc have massive exposure to shipping....
Thank you for the information.
Posters like Zidane are the reason I come here regularly. Thank you.
#opinionsarelikeassholes
#realinfo
amen.
Perhaps a way to get a better picture on shipping is to see where all container ships are located: Take a look at: http://www.marinetraffic.com/ - then zoom into China/Taiwan/Hongkong & Singapore/Japan compared to US ports Seattle, Oakland, LongBeach, etc. Panama Canal. To me, it seems like all the ships have been parked in Asia for a long time. I am aware of what the BDI tracks and the also pay attention to ship builds (as referred to by Zidane, above) I also track Bill of Lading container frieght data.
shipping is one of the last vestiges of capitalism.... the wild west
if youre greek you either own a diner(s) or a ship(s).. or both ...and you keep all your $$$ offshore and pay ziptax..
used to be every sugar ship going from colombia to haiti had bags of coke.... then the haitians conficate the coke and hold the ship for extorsion (fine) and arrest the captain/crew and the $$$ is paid... great business and of course they "destroy" the cocaine..... in the nostrils of the ussa