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Dow Drops 200 Points From Post-Payrolls Peak, WTI Tumbles To $47 Handle, Bond Yields Plunge
But, but, but it was a great jobs report... (apart from record numbers not working and dream-dissolving earnings drops). The exuberant surge in stocks post-payrolls has left the building. The Dow is now down over 200 points from the post-payrolls peak as stocks are broadly -0.5% from payrolls print and losing over half of yesterday's Evans gains. Gold and bonds are rallying and crude is not rallying or stabilizing... and has broken back down to a $47 handle.
Dow down over 200 from post payrolls peak...
as all major indices tumble red on the day...
and week...
And bonds are all now rallying...
And crude is slumping...
Artist's Impression of the reaction...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Gold usually gets monkey hammered on jobs day, somebody have the day off?
The part timers were sent home...only half days now
Wouldn't that make them sorta like "quarter timers"? Work four jobs, 10 hours a week, and everything is fine.
Need moar Fed jaw-boning!
Have you noticed how the jaw-boning is beginning to wane in it's desired effect?
Bullard brought us off the October lows and reality didn't come back until December.
Yellen rescued the December drop with "patient" swapping for "considerable time".
Evans goes on tv YESTERDAY and says no rate rises until 2016 and we already the effect is wearing off (but we're only half-way through trading hours).
Verbal Easing is beginning to crumble.
where's wilson? [/mortimer]
But Dave Ramsey says buys stawks and houses and don't worry about a thing. Also says dump gold and the dollar is fine. Also says Peter Schiff is an idiot. Forward!
Yeah, Dave says be a good Christian and render unto Caesar and slave away.
His "deliver pizza" line kills me; does he not know it costs 0.536 cents per mile minimum to operate a vehicle?
On the odd occasion I order out I tip any delivery person 30%-40% because I know they are getting screwed by the corporatocracy.
And while I'll pay with plastic sometimes, I always tip cash.
I love cash. I love getting it and giving it to others. When I cash checks at the bank, I ask for cash.
It really frigs up the Fed and the banks because they actually have to hire someone to handle it and print it, instead of typing digits into a keyboard.
If everyone asked for $1000, cash this week...the entire Fed Ponzi pyramid would collapse.
The people who didn't sell to the squeezed shorts yesterday getting out while they can.
C'mon S&P 666!
I kind of figured the vix looked oversold yesterday so I dipped my toe in the water looking to build a position over the next week or so. Today is one of those "mixed feelings" type of days when you're not sure if you want to book gains on such a tiny ass position :)
The true story of the day is that Wall Street is trying to come to grips with impending interest rate increases. When earnings start coming out next week you can expect them to be bad, which might make you think that the Fed would delay raising rates, but I predict they will stick to their painted-by-fantasy-numbers-script of saying that employment has increased sufficiently to justify raising rates back towards their "normal" area, whatever that is.
Going into another round of QE would be admitting the US is Japan all over again, and since we all know where Japan's economy is after 25 years of QE, namely circling the drain, the Fed will raise rates instead, as unbelievable as that may sound, IMHO.
Raise rates!
Yeah these things are suddenly a bit wobbly now.
But Jim Cramer said the jobs number was good for stawks:
Cramer: Jobs numbers good for stocks, bad for laborhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer-jobs-numbers-good-stocks-145706165....
I hope Cramer gets rotated through all the circles of hell continously......
Yeah big deal, but there'e a massive gap below (160 points still to go) that needs closing - otherwise, just another correction of a BIGGER move up
Wake me up when Gold is north of 1500...until then im watching fox jews for my daily dose of brain damage.
you know - you can get brain damage from drinking and/or doing drugs too - at least you might enjoy yourself
How much of the market can the Fed plunge protection team buy before people realize they are the only ones holding it up?
Hahaha. Just wait until earnings start.
Crude is heading for new 5.5 year lows; equities may see the oil default and bank loss trouble coming into focus:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
Like a slowing top, the wobbles get worse and worse then it drops over dead.
wobbles are good for dubstep though...wait for the 'drop'
We'll finish the day up, it might be $1 up, but it will be up.
They need to start dancing faster......
They just can't seem to get over the fact that oil is down. When oil is up they price it in and ramp the markets for it. When oil is down they want to disconnect it from the markets. The Rigging is so obvious.
It's getting about time for the "mother's little helper".
Yesterday: "let's not miss the bottom in crude!!" "BUY BUY BUY!"
Today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A
The laws of economics are telling us clearly that there is no more money that is needed to flow into bonds.
The irrational response? Buy more bonds.
If only we had an economic environment where we could take our capital and invest it in real, productive economic opportunities.
If only those opportunities existed.
It's OK, this is just a fore-shock quake swarm.
Crude at $47.17 is on the 5.5 year lows, looking ready to do some deep drilling on down to the 2008 low in the $40-42 range. See the monthly view to get the big picture:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
Silver at $16.45, that's over 11 dollars profit.
Seems the half-life of Mr. Yellen's verbal interventions is fading. Perhaps we are on the 7th circuit around Jericho.
There are big problems coming in US retail. The channel stuffing sales mirage is disappearing. Eventually stores can't sell enough actual product to keep the lights on, because as of right now you can't pay your bills with money created out of an accounting fudge. Stock, you can pump with an accounting fudge, but real sales you can not.
Dick's Sporting Goods is on the verge of bankruptcy. That is why they are looking into private buyouts, so Ed Stack and the rest of the board can cash out and pawn the massive corpse on some private equity firm. In the new normal, seeking a buyout is bullish for your stock and Dick's stock soared to give Ed a higher platform to jump from.
Dick's expanded to far too fast and punished their vendors to the point that virtually none of them could make money selling to them. Then when a vendor was down Ed kicked them even harder by giving their business to a publicly traded vendor of his choice. Telling them to copy the smaller companies product and then he would buy it from them, increasing their sales numbers and goosing their stock.
Dick's Sporting Goods plays a fun game of picking and choosing which companies they want to pump to help prepare for a successful IPO, which Ed and his partners buy into. If you are going to go public, Dick's will buy hundreds of millions worth of your product and channel stuff inventory into every store, making your supposed sales go ballistic. However their latest pump and dumb scheme went bad. A company they pumped didn't file on time and couldn't get it together to IPO. Dick's was stuck with $50 million in inventory of just one product and over $100 million in total inventory. This product wasn't selling and Dick's forced the company to take back millions of dollars worth of product. This destroyed the cash flow of the vendor and they laid off almost their entire staff. Bankruptcy is coming soon for them. They don't have the operating capital to absorb taking back millions of dollars in inventory, because they haven't IPO'd and can't sell shares to make up for the loss.
If you look at Dick's income statements you can see how the loss of $100 million in sales could bring the entire company down. Everything is forward booked and pre-sold. When product doesn't eventually sell it leaves a giant gaping hole in the accounting ledger. Dick's has been a giant scam from the beginning, and like every scam it eventually comes to an end. Dick's claims $6.2 billion in revenue with net income of $337 million. That is with bullshit accounting, the real numbers aren't even close. Essentially they don't make much money considering they force vendors to sell them product at 60-70% margin. Dick's has no real cash flow and almost no money to purchase new inventory.
Here are some real numbers. Dick's claims Ecom is 10% of their business, make that $600 million. That leaves $5.6 billion in revenue from brick and mortar operations. Divide that by their store count and you get $10.6 million per store per year. You look at that giant store and you think selling $10 million in inventory should be easy, the store is so big and there is so much product. The problem is the business just doesn't exist. There are not that many people buying sporting goods, and there are so many places to buy it. Walmart does over 50% of the youth sports business in the US, and the sporting goods section at Walmart is much smaller than a Dick's store. Divide $10.6 million by 365 and you get $29k. That is $29k per day per store to create the claimed revenue of Dick's Sporting Goods. Please walk into a Dick's store and see if you watch $29k get checked out of the registers every single day. If $29k isn't checked out you need to add the balance to the next day and so on and so forth. It is just impossible.
I know for a fact that the #1 checked out item in 2012 sold $8 million total CHAIN WIDE! At that time it represented about $18k per store for an entire year selling one or two units per day per store. What this represented was a compete inventory turnover every two to three weeks, WHICH IN RETAIL IS INCREDIBLE!!!! Most vendors work on 4-6 inventory turns per year. Meaning if you have 10 units in each store, you look to sell 40-60 units per store per year.
Take this case and repeat it across virtually the entire retail space. The end game is coming because you can't have this much retail space for so few people who can actually afford to buy things.
Thats OK. When Dick's is gone WallyWorld will pick up their business....
We have a local store here in town, one store independent, in business since early 1980's. They just announced they are closing due to higher costs in healthcare, electric, & taxes. This is a very successful store loved by the community and everyone was shocked. This is only the beginning of the end for many retailers especially independents.
I told Dicks to suck a big one after they cancelled orders and stopped selling "assault rifles" following the Sandy Hook "incident".
Fuck Dicks, they will NEVER see another dime of my money, Cabelas gets my outdoor spending $ now ...
This index of losers in the oil collapse, the BKX bank index, down 2.2% so far today, may be the leading indicator of the next down leg in equities, which could be starting now, or soon:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bkx&insttype=Index&freq=1&show=&time=7
Typical ZH stock market analysis.
Omg, the market's at another all-time high. SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
qe+ is coming.
5% of americans know it's a bad move, and will hedge accordingly.
94% of americans look at the bottom line on their retirement statements.
1% relish it's comming, they've perfected the ways to enrich themselves, in a qe market.
the govt., and the fed, live for it, every dollar that moves into the system, is one more dollar to be used as leverage to aquire their goal, nwo.