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"Not" Stabilized - WTI Crude Nears $46, Brent Trades $48 Handle
This is not what was supposed to happen... Brent Crude broke to a $48 handle and WTI nears a $46 handle as yet another dead-cat-bounce dies...
Brent dumps under $50... breaks to $48 handle
and WTI nears $46 handle...
Energy stocks catching down...
Charts: Bloomberg
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THUD.......goes the bounce........queue the CNBS talking heads cheap oil will get the dumbsumer buying
Another $20 and we're certain for a collapse. Time to send IS into SA
Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier.
This goes on until something breaks.
Yeah, and since oil is not some magically created finnancial product, this can get ugly.
Oil is used to do REAL work. To MAKE real products.
If supply can keep up at this price point withought major shooting wars, good.
I just don't think things can keep up like this, which is exactly your point.
Funny how we seem to see things the same quite often?
pods
I would still like to see the futures position ratios vs. real world consumption vs real world production to see what is really driving the speed of the price collapse. We all know the COMEX/NYMEX et al. is a farce.
If WTI goes below $50 then world will end.
Ohhhhhh....
Am I still here?
Brent is world price and with it dropping below $50 things will get worse quicker. It's going to get pretty damned tough to keep the market levitated when reality walks in and starts beating the shit out of everybody.
Let's see if this recovery is real!!!
Rates to 6%, oil to $20/barrel, S&P 666!!!
Look at the big picture to see where crude is going between $40 and $42 - on the monthly chart:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
The 10 year is going to zero on the destiny chart.
Things are starting to look like one of those disaster movies where it's all rubble except we created our own asteroid strike.
Ha! so even terrorism and hostage scenarios can't deflect the markets from the gloom...
FORWARD!
I hear oil well caps are flying off the shelves and in short supply.
"Put that Genie back in the bottle now!"
What's even worse is that oil is selling off with the $usd selling off.
Looks like the Fed is going to become the world's largest crude oil owner. Where are they going to store it?!?
The Bernank is like the slimeball Ismay in Titanic who jumps onto a lifeboat after urging Captain Smith to ramp up.
Make the morning papers. Retire with a bang, eh, E.J.?
Where's Sudden Debt telling us its going to $200?
My money's on $20
That's coming after TBTJ abuse asymmetric leverage and access to phantom financial assets to take out the owners of real assets and real options (oil in the ground) like the deal last night... Once they've taken from those who do real work in the real economy (and the natural 5%+depletion on a base of 94MM BPM wipes out the alleged supply driven "glut" of 1MM BPD, $150+ will come...
That's coming after TBTJ abuse asymmetric leverage and access to phantom financial assets to take out the owners of real assets and real options (oil in the ground) like the deal last night... Once they've taken from those who do real work in the real economy (and the natural 5%+depletion on a base of 94MM BPM wipes out the alleged supply driven "glut" of 1MM BPD, $150+ will come...
Blame all the tree huggers that bought electric cars.
</sarc>
10 year back under 2%.... oops. What recovery?
Looks like they are trying to levitate it but that turd won't float....
10 things the media won’t be talking about after the Paris terror attack
WTF News put the Charlie Hebdo ISIS cartoon in the site header… Because…
Really?
I hadn't seen that the other 500 times you posted it.
It happens, if they want it to happen !
Fake rigged market... same as PM's
Yesterday, there was some chase going on in Houston and the dude jumped a freeway... 20ft freefall. Prob went long on oil when it was @ 50 ... bitchez.
Given what the EIA reported over a year ago "oil and gas consumption at levels not seen since the 1970's", and in the context of the great debate of whether this is a supply problem v. a demand problem - I reckon this is a demand problem.
If this were a supply problem (i.e a movement down along the demand curve), price would decline, but not by 54%, unless you are assuming a relatively inelastic demand curve. But, I think it would be unrealistic to assume that consumption behaviour is insenstive to price.
In my opinion, given the EIA data, this is not a movement along the demand curve (shift in supply), rather it is a shift in demand (inward toward the origin) such that quantity demanded at all prices has declined. It suggests a much deeper and structural contraction than what occurs when demand is robust and a bunch of oil is dumped on the market. In this instance the excess supply is quickly mopped up by a temporary reduction in price to clear physical markets - the kind of change we see, say in the agricultural markets where demand hasn't changed for barley, but, with harvests coming off in the fall, prices fall to clear physical markets (as they did in October), then return to trend (as they have currently).
A shift in demand, however, is symbolic of a much deeper adjustment that has occurred in consumer and producer preferences - where such demand has decreased at all price levels and the only way there is a return to say $104 oil is by a shift in supply. But this would imply a decrease (substantive) in quantity demanded (volume) to clear $104 oil - all else equal.
All that to say that in my opinion, while I wish this were an excess supply problem, this is more like a structural and more permanent demand problem at all prices offered.
Anyhow - for what its worth.
The reality is that although a counter-trend rally will come (maybe into 70s) the architecture and fundamentals of this down move confirm that weakness will continue for at least the next year. The entire commodity complex is collapsing with deflation and will likely front-run a recession, leading to a bottom in all commods. May not come til 2016/17 because of paper positioning but it will come.
http://investfts.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/the-current-state-of-play.html
"Your mission, if you chose to accept it, _______, is to apply a tourniquet to your own butt hole."
- Mission Impossible
How long till we go to war because oil prices are too low?
Message to Putin - the beating shall continue until the morale improves
Oil going up - Oh, FUCK, the world is ending!!!
Oil going down - Oh, FUCK, the world is ending!!!
You guys are hillarious
It's the Goldilocks syndrome. We want it "just right."
Money High Money Low Money come Money go.
Dont' worry me!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZHQyo9M9wc
The dead cat bounce is dead. Long live the dead cat bounce!
Oil will keep dropping tell something breaks. Current prices are above production costs for basically all producers if you exclude repaying debt on the creation of that production.
That means reduction in production will only happen slowly as investments in new projects dry up. Oill prices could be bellow $50 for several years before that reduction in new supply happens.
That being the case means oil wont be stable at $50 it will continue to plunge lower until something bad happens somewhere as a result and that causes a reduction in existing production.
.23gal works for me. Does gore still get his cut for hanging on to warm earth balls if it goes any lower? bueller bueller anyone