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What Hath QE Wrought?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Gipp of The World Complex

What Hath QE Wrought?

First off, let's see how our deflation indicator is playing out.

The latest trend of rising gold and USDX is in its third month.

The last time we had a similar trend was in 2009. That ended with a massive blowout of QE. But a funny thing happened on the way to the bank. After four-and-a-half years, we wound up back where we started.

The ineluctable march of deflation.

And for context, a look at the bigger picture.

One lesson of all this is that if the system needs to deflate, the bankers and politicians who think they are in control can delay it, but not stop it. A little over four years later, we have picked up where we left off.

I would expect the central bankers of the world will try for another inflationary push at some point in the future. Maybe they will let deflation to run for a time to ratchet up the pain enough for the public to scream for more stimulus. I can't help but think that they decided to let deflation run for a bit just to chase out some of the 99.9% who were perhaps betting on continued inflation.

Deflation's the same in a relative way, but you're older;
Shorter of breath, and four years closer to death.

 

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Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:44 | 5645589 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Before criticizing someone, walk a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you will be a mile away and have their shoes.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:06 | 5645642 Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

LOLO!

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 19:01 | 5646723 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

inflation, deflation

dont care either way, i gots me phyzz

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:08 | 5645646 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

...After 4.5 years of QE, Americans can note...

98% the wealth are in the hands of the 1% elite

98% have lost their freedom as per the Constitution

60% of the 98% live paycheck to paycheck

...please add...

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:12 | 5645654 max2205
max2205's picture

How many people have died in the last 6 years and earned zero interest?

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:58 | 5645757 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No shit QE was a futile effort!

Just look at the price of gas at the pump now.

Welcome to the abyss of a massively deflationary Greater Depression.

 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:18 | 5645791 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Well, it would not surprise me if Oil had went up because everything else (but PMs) did.

Goose the markets, goose the Oil price???

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:51 | 5645871 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

QE did what the mega-banks and Wall St. wanted, it made them richer. Of course they think they will be able to buy their way out of the disaster, after all it worked so well in France just before the guillotines started to fall.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:17 | 5645787 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

.....retired on fixed income cannot get a good% return on their funds...

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:46 | 5645730 EemieMeanieMinieMoe
EemieMeanieMinieMoe's picture

I don't have to outrun the bear....I just have to outrun YOU!

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:14 | 5645785 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Jack Handey!

I hope that after I die, people will say of me: ``That guy sure owed me a lot of money.''

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:44 | 5645591 PrayingMantis
PrayingMantis's picture

... I knew it Queen Elizabeth has something to do with this ... :)

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:48 | 5645596 I should be working
I should be working's picture

"Deflation's the same in a relative way, but you're older;

Shorter of breath, and four years closer to death."

Can't we just delay until after my death?

Then my kids can deal with it, suckers!!!

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:55 | 5645606 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

+1 for use of Pink Floyd lyrics.

Shine on your crazy bullion.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:16 | 5645658 max2205
max2205's picture

100 million living off of govt  bennies. .. holy fucking shit....

 

Any bells going off 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:54 | 5645876 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Just make sure you ain't where the riots are.....

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:20 | 5645665 blown income
blown income's picture

DEP-   +1 for use of Pink Floyd lyrics.

          Shine on your crazy bullion.

+1

 

 

Yeah , but I'm not comfortably numb...and that distant ship on the horizon isn't a cruiser...

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:47 | 5645597 Boomberg
Boomberg's picture

You know we're screwed when technical charts are drawn with an Etch-a-Sketch, possibly by a 3 year old. 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:26 | 5645684 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

We inflated some folks.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:36 | 5645695 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

A chart is supposed to provide a picture of a concept/obeservation without many words. You have to be on acid listening to the White Album playing backwards to makes sense of these pieces of shit. 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:54 | 5645880 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

They make every bit as much sense as the markets and I prefer backwards Beatles myself.... :-)

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 18:23 | 5708110 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

I thought all the Etch-a-Sketch people went away

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:52 | 5645601 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

QE had the effect of unearned profits.

And what happens when you give a kid money they have not earned?

Exactly.

 

For those that fear deflation, fear not.

Haven't you been to an auction where the starting price was too high?  So they begin to lower it.  Once the bottom is found, suddenly there are many willing to bid the price back up, sometimes higher than the original starting price.

It's called price discovery.  And you should not be afraid of it.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:58 | 5645603 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

'After 4 1/2 years we've wound up back where we started from'...just with shitloads more debt and even more obvious, shameless criminality by TPTB.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:52 | 5645604 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

If they knew what they were doing, we would not have gotten into this mess in the first place....And now, we expect them to get out of this?...Not happen'n.....

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:58 | 5645622 db51
db51's picture

I'll bet a Benjamin by June 2015 we're at all time highs in both the Dow and S&P.  

1 Corinthians 2:9   The New World Order Version

 

But as it is written, Eye hath not seen, nor ear heard, neither have entered into the heart of man, the things which Lord Blankfein hath prepared for them that love him.
Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:40 | 5645714 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

And he sat down opposite the treasury and watched the people putting money into the offering box. Many rich people put in large sums. And a poor widow came and put in two small copper coins, which make a penny. And he called his disciples to him and said to them, “Truly, I say to you, this poor widow has put in more than all those who are contributing to the offering box. For they all contributed out of their abundance, but she out of her poverty has put in everything she had, all she had to live on.”

Thankfullly,  after commisions and penalties she received half a penny the following week once she realized the error of her ways. 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:58 | 5645892 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Revelation 6:8

I looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:03 | 5645638 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Oh they know what they are doing. Don't doubt that.

Just don't believe their reasons for doing it and for whom it is to benefit.

Hint: it's not for goyim cattle...it's TO goyim cattle.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:28 | 5645690 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

You should also consider the possibility that they do know what they doing.  You are just not aware of what their true objective is.

Have a look at "The Anti Capitalistic Mentality by Mises.  You can download it for two bucks at Amazon.

He nailed it decades ago.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:19 | 5645793 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

"He nailed it decades ago."

He certainly did, and with no apologies. It's an excellent little book.

I'd rather give my money directly to Libertarian Press than give a cut to Amazon.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 22:08 | 5647235 Failure to Comm...
Failure to Communicate's picture

You can download it free at Mises.

http://mises.org/library/anti-capitalistic-mentality

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 11:54 | 5645607 wmbz
wmbz's picture

The big  "D" deflation is the one boogyman that can keep the un-fed awake at night. They will run the pumps to infinity to stave off deflation.

If their facade starts to crumble then the con is over. So I think it's a safe bet as wiffs of deflation filter into their nostrils they will pick up the pace.

In the end the fiat banksters will lose, it is not going to be a pretty sight though.

There will be blood in the streets and lots of it.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:04 | 5645636 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

It looks like people keep missing the point. We may be back where we started 5 years ago. But they were dead 7 years ago and yet they managed to kick the can , live the good life. 

Die in 2008. Or. Hope for a miracle, if not, End up back where you started in 2015. The choice was a no brainer. The people could have stopped it , but didn't. 

 

Fuck You Hank Paulson. 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:07 | 5645644 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Back where we started. But moral hazard is out control. They may have mis-read that forecast. 

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:41 | 5645715 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Moral hazard a/k/a credibility may be the only "rule" safely extinguished by the monetary experiment.  It died when debt became truly imaginary.  Promises to repay are just words on paper when the government becomes a player.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:09 | 5645649 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

That chart looks like my neighbor trying to find his way home from the bar last night.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:00 | 5645758 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...and he ended up right where he started -- at the bar.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 16:50 | 5646340 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

his wife wasn't having it, or giving it, so he went back to where he's appreciated.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:10 | 5645650 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Sure.  NOW they can let a little deflation through.  The criminals unloaded their losses onto the public at face value and can now go shopping in the discount aisles of our shattered economy with the loot from their govenment sponsored heist.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:38 | 5645706 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

This is exactly how Japan lost their two (plus) decades.  Why are we following in their footprints???

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:48 | 5645734 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

What the hell is that last chart? LOL!

It looks like the perfect chart of where everything has gone the past few years...all meandering, all over the place, with no apparent goal in mind.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 14:00 | 5645898 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

More like Tyler's handwriting

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 12:54 | 5645752 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

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Maybe they will let deflation to run for a time to ratchet up the pain enough for the public to scream for more stimulus.

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Umm… The pain of deflation? Stuff will cost less and my money I saved will be 'worth' more, have more purchasing power!?

 

Bring on the pain!

 

•?•
V-V

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 18:50 | 5646691 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

But the things the 98% have pledged and leveraged will cost less leading to bankruptcy when the calls are made.

So NO ! you shall not have cheaper because that puts the money lenders at huge risk.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 13:25 | 5645806 honkadoo
honkadoo's picture

I think you skipped over a few years, beginning in 2008.  

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 14:20 | 5645942 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

success-mission accomplished..they are more wealthy, have more security than ever in history, all potential compitition burried under debt and regulations in the police HLS state..sure a few wars here and there, some members spot lighted for pediaphilia or rape of chamber maids, a little criminal theft with no controlling legal authority, MF global and it's gone- thank you captured DOJ/SEC.

the only threat they face is becoming too cocky. but corzine showed them they can never be too cocky, what is wealth and power for ?except to use it.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 14:59 | 5646031 justmy2cents
justmy2cents's picture

Jim Callaghan ex British Prime Minister Talking on BBC TV in 1976.

"We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step."

Says it all for what's coming really.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 15:20 | 5646091 kowalli
kowalli's picture

thye just steal 5 years from our future.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 15:51 | 5646179 CHX
CHX's picture

8 to 9 years time have a price tag of officially ~8 T USD, inofficially it might well be up to an order of magnitude higher.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 16:26 | 5646277 adr
adr's picture

If you have $1 million in the bank you can make $5000 a year in interest on it, if you are lucky enough to have a savings account paying .5%. Most retirees don't even have half that saved.

What the banks and the Fed did was try to force people with any savings to gamble it away in the stock market. Problem was people with savings had bills to pay so the money went towards that instead of stocks, leaving them with nothing after a few years forcing them to get a $8.75 hr job at Home Depot.

Death the the money changers, death to the bull worshippers.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 16:39 | 5646306 Ewtman
Ewtman's picture

THe largest credit bubble in the history of the world has burst. It is just a matter of time now until catastrophy strikes.

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 16:58 | 5646367 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

That the SEC July rule change allows/requires imposing big exit fees on money market accounts indicates they are afraid of liquidity drying up.  When they can't get enough out of us to backstop everything, then more QE on the way, and looks like they will be using terror attacks as the excuse for the ramp.

Sat, 01/10/2015 - 17:54 | 5646563 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"I can't help but think that they decided to let deflation run for a bit just to chase out some of the 99.9% who were perhaps betting on continued inflation."

 

Deflation is the completion of the inflation/deflation cycle.  All cycles complete themselves.  They can't prevent deflation from running.

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 18:27 | 5708120 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Although they did forestall it for some years

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