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Crude Crash Erases Stocks' "Catastrophe" Exuberance, Bonds & Bullion Surge
Did something change? The Dow just avoided its 6th day in a row of triple-digit moves...
Despite crude's overnight collapse to fresh lows, stocks stahed their usual pumpathon into the opening bell... but that was rapidly erased - along with all the gains post-Charlie Evans' "catastrophe" comment... not helped by Fed's Williams late-day confirmation that:
- FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS JUNE RATE RISE `REASONABLE' AMID JOB GAINS
- WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. LABOR MARKET CONTINUING `STRONG MOMENTUM'
On the day in the cash indices, Nasdaq and S&P underperformed...
Energy was today's biggest loser and Builders - thanks to another miracle squeeze - outpeformed...
And from the 'awesome jobs report'...
All managed by JPY (which massively roundtripped against the USD) mostly against the EUR...
As stocks begin to catch down to oil prices...
led by Energy stocks...
And Stocks retrace back lower towards bonds year-to-date reality...
Treasury yields hit fresh multi-year lows...
The USDollar gave back most of its gains during the US day session but closed higher...
Commodities saw mixed action with the dollar weakness during the US session supporting more strength in PMs (gold at one month highs) as oil prices cratered to fresh cycle lows...
With WTI closing at the lows of the day - with a $45 handle!!
Year-to-Date...
Charts: Bloomberg
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another day...
another ramp in the last hour of trading in London and an attempted stick save of the Dow in the last hour of trading in NY...
another take down of Silver throughout the day of trading in London, and heading into the Crimex, only to meet with more buying pushing above their line in the sand at 16.50...
did i miss anything?
Not even a small bounce in WTI? Come one man. That's a 16 year trendline. Maybe later this week we will get some sort of a bounce?
Tough for oil to get a bounce when the globalization as we know it comes to a grinding halt. Time to get our money back from china for all the cheap shit no one needed.
Time to put on my knife catching gloves
45.70
Spy at 4 mth ema....play both sides for now
Not the best for long range due to its rainbow trajectory, but the 45-70 packs quite a whollup.
+1
Gawd I love it when you talk guns... Henry H010
I'll probably kick myself at some point, but I sold some paper gold today and bought some oil stocks. Waiting for the Fed and Goldman to come to the rescue, drive oil prices back up, and BAIL ME OUT!
Gloves are for pussies...oh wait...you don't have fingers.
We hacked some folks.
"Strong momentum" in the labor market?
Is that momentum towards historically low labor participation Mr. Williams?
Go ahead and raise rates now, I dare 'ya! C'mon, 2%, let us see how strong this "recovery" is.
.25%/6mos until qe4, starting in July... At best. 2% will not happen.
"Go ahead and raise rates now, I dare 'ya! C'mon, 2%, let us see how strong this "recovery" is. "
Just WHO the fuck do you think you are??!?! Paul fucking Volker???!?!
The 30 Year Bond is presently yielding 2.499% on my screen...
This craft is in a power-dive and the pilot just blacked out...
anybody know why the spread 'tween WTI and Brent recently narrowed so much?
Weird indeed, or wti will now take a bigger drop or brend needs to go up.
did also happen in 2009 as I remember, brend even went under wti.
What about the dislocations between white oil, yellow oil and black oil? Or should I say, Silver, Gold and Black Silver?
Don't get racist on us....
"Weird indeed, or wti will now take a bigger drop or brend needs to go up.
did also happen in 2009 as I remember, brend even went under wti. "
I am guessing that it is a second derivative symptom of the underlying market dislocation.
The distribution complex itself is now showing signs of distress.
Look at what just happened to the airlines. Some locked in fuel price hedges that are killing them and they are paying huge sums to exit those back-firing forward contracts. ...Causing even more downward pressure on prices of refined products in the tank and in the refinery pipeline.
The shippers probably locked in fuel prices for the tanker fleet to hedge volitility and don't want to take delivery of the now over-priced fuel.
Send a fleet of tankers across the ocean to discover that between your fuel costs and the cargo value the profit margin evaporated while you had the lot in transit?
Who distributes what where is -at least temporarily- likely more a matter of whether costs of transit are locked in or are floating with the price of the underlying.
The petroleum market wags the transportation as well as the acquisition markets.
Transportation costs of the unrefined petroleum is itself being further destabilized in part due to the financialization and inverted hedges.
Gotta look at the narrowing of the spread as a bigger fall in Brent prices. Brent should be influenced less by shale oil or even by Saudi prices (they lowered US prices and raised Asia prices). Only a few real possibilities remain - big bank manipulation or naked selling ahead of some EU centric event (Grexit?) or some type of play based on weaker Euros (but I haven't figure that one out!).
They have to compete. They have to sell. They have to drive it as low as it'll go.
maybe the folks that produced more midcon oil to widen the spread are much less likely to produce so much going forward. Oil sands and bakken are hurting, or so I've read.
It could be when no one is buying at all then the prices start to get closer.
Think about it. You have to sell a car and you're a Honda dealer. But those Chevies are 3-5K underneath you. You do what you have to do to sell the thing.
Oil at 45. 98
Last one out of the ALberta oil sands, turn out the lights.
No Hindenberg today?
The hindenbergs have surrender. Gotem tethered over DC looken out for terrorist
Fed Zeppelin ... the new hindenburg
Nice metaphor but, thanks to you, now an image persists: Yellen at the helm of the dirigible, cranking 'Misty Mountain Hop' ("all get in line, get in line"), while Fisher, attempting to ration her hydrogen/helium mix, competes with 'When the Levee Breaks' on his boom-box.
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
How soft your fields so green, can whisper tales of gore,
Of how we calmed the tides of war. We are your overlords.
+1
Back from a time of real lyrics, real talent and kick-assness.
Made money with miner calls today, this is not supposed to be allowed, all hell is clearly breaking loose and we should flee to South America immediately.
Oh No...!! Not another defector to La Estancia de Cafayate...?
Loaded weapon is one of the best in its genre.
Good cop/ bad cop and the idiodic "market" robots continue to fall for it. Well at least we know Skynet isn't completely aware yet.
What if Skynet's first lesson on the Internet was... how to troll humans?
I know it shouldn't astound me, but the 2-month chart of Energy stocks correlating almost tick for tick with WTI crude up until the 'Fat Yellen Inflection' Event in the middle of the chart cued up the equities to completely decouple, still amazes me.
"Catastrophe" just isn't strong enough. Maybe try "Armageddon"?
China can swoop in and buy up Texas for the cheap Oil.
That would be a hoot !
The'd all have to speak Chinese.
Armageddon? Nah. It's time for Ragnarök!
nice, just started watching that movie last night on netflix, otherwise wouldn't know what you're talking about
WTI wanders below the $45 handle may cause some very interesting action. of course a sudden large scale interruption in oil supplies after another week of shut downs and we could get a slam up into the +$50. Time for a major 'event' geopolitically or a few pipelines to go boom.
petrodollar death,, DOW 80,0000
XAU - $666
XAG - $6.66
Physical AU/AG - Unobtainable
lol - maybe
for now... http://scharts.co/1BebUJT ... 2x gold / xau 1/2.64 = 470 or so, so more likely XAU 666 will put gold at 2758 & silver around 93.64 paper price. Usually gold / silver1/2 = 285 but today it's more like 303, indicating gold is above the trend with silver
The Fed is bipolar!
WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. LABOR MARKET CONTINUING `STRONG MOMENTUM'
If he means strong momentum of US non-burger-flipping jobs migrating to Asia, then yeah, he's got that right...
Labor is laboring ...
Fine young American men and women graduating with some college debt will have a very bright future ahead of them as all of their education is now going to pay off
America has done it again. Long live the American Empire! The world is looking at American made products and services. The global economy is crashing because the whole world is buying more and more "made in America".
Decoupled because we are superior in all we do.
We are superior. Remember the line in "America The Beautiful"..."God shed his light on thee". God didn't shed his light on Norway or Poland or China. So there. Proof we are superior.
They know good & Gawd-damned well what the score is in the 'ever-improving' labor market. Man they are really trying hard to desiccate that moldy powder for use come - spring or summer...?
the trouble with this whole 'reality' thing is it's like a levee, it doesn't break the delusion often, but when it does, it washes ALL the bullshit away.
It's all just glirified theft by the banking Cartel. The create bubbles and use phantom (and senior) claims from FRB to take control of greater financial assets over time as they strategically deflate once everyone else is improperly positioned (30 months of infinite leverage pain trade option manipulation turned everyone upside down). We can end the BS forever simply by converting their fraudulent financial assets to cash and gold. Make them onboard all the risk...
"Free energy is bad news." Move along...
All energy is free energy when you ignore the cost of materials, assembly of infrastructure & routing / connecting it.
Trading patterns often persist, and thus far in 2015 the early-move-followed-by-horizontal-hell seems to be the algos’ raison d’être (or perhaps just raisin bran), with solid moves and reversals in trading pre-European close, followed by 4+ hours of sideways stasis, with any attempt to rock the boat in the stagnant pool (intentional Felt reference) machine-gunned away, which today occurred at 3:36:30.
For RUT, it seemed the plan was to go pretty much exactly from the 20 to the 50 DMA on the session, with a bigger plunge scare (oil-based) that was abruptly erased, as we ended the day exactly where we were at 11:15. Don’t mind trading half-days, but the persnickety, hexadecimal hound dogs will get bored with this soon, won’t they?
"along with all the gains post-Charlie Evans' "catastrophe" comment.."
President Evans, I served with Jim Bullard. I knew Jim Bullard. Jim Bullard was a friend of mine. President Evans, you're no Jim Bullard.
Evans has been a flaming dove so his comments are short-lived.
Williams has been 'leaning dove' -- so when Williams says interest rate rise and strong employment -- that has a negative effect on the markets.
Bullard has been 'leaning hawk' - so when he says 'no hurry' to raising rates it is a BIG positive.
Well, Jim...
The people who created our system, despite the best efforts of the fanatical farce that "upholds" it, would not have a country that represents such freedom and order to the enslaved world as our own fall under the chaos of selfish, bad economics that would both enslave us (for a while) and take away what little penance the third world gets to stand by. Congress has almost no power against the status quo, and finding that they've thrown in the towel. All I'm saying is, your disorderly, chaotic shit isn't for nothing. Whining on public television and in media about your poor mouth, out of which spews the very corruption that enslaves most of the world won't grant us the same fate as the likes of the Britian and Socialist Europe. The real demand has arrived, and won't relent until the aristocracy learns the real truth, the real shit. The reality is, it's not the leaders, or those who give and get little in the economy. It's you.
Libya, Nigeria, Boko Haram, oil..... Boom.
At least the fucking Ebola stories are fading away!
With this decline rate WTI will reach -100 near Christmas...
I'd bring down the printing machines and pump up the money :DDD
(chart image)
https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/htcu8nm1/
Anyone want to run a book on the next $150 or $200 oil story here?
They were coming thick and fast a few years ago
You shouldn't laugh too hard, it ain't over yet.
Oil might cue ball here at some point.
We are seeing some 2008 action happening here as when BAC was in the 3's.
its almost time to go hands, feet, and balls all in
January 12th, 2015
5:30PM Eastern Standard Time
United States 30 Year Bond Yield: 2.499%
>>>
Bullion Surge
<<<
_Surge_ ?
I see:
a. Less than 2% move;
b. Final price less than USD 1250, a few years ago trying for USD 2000.
Deflation deflates _everything_.
Everything _includes_ gold.
Must admit, didn't think deflation was possible with fiat currency...then I thought about the amount of debt in the world.
Watson
Try a little numerology.
1999 = 28 = 1 the beginning.
2006 = 8 change.
2007 = 9 mystic
2008 = 10 = 1 the beginning
2015 = 8 change
2016 = 9 mystic
2017 = 10 = 1 the beginning.
It's starting to look a lot like 2006 again, but the future, 2016, 2017 may be dire times. Pure speculation, is all, like everything else. The numbers may not align perfectly, but wasn't 2006 the beginning of the end of the housing bubble, which got worse in 2007 (when Bernanke said the subprime ciris was "contained.")
Now, compare and contrast this year with the decline in oil and already all the calls for a bottom. Some jerk-off (Jim Iorio) on CNBS was taken to the woodshed for calling a bottom at $50. Of course, he denied saying it. Moron, speculator and liar all rolled neatly into human form. Waste product for the new millennium.
Numerology is about as reliable as "expert forecasts" or "reasoned analysis" or just about anybody spouting off on CNBS, Bloomberg or anywhere else.
I'll stick with cash, silver and renting, for now, unless a sweet RE deal comes along (there's always somebody on the wrong side of a trade). By 2017, I should be a home owner with a lot less cash, but lots of silver. Two years. I (we all) have time.
Keep prepping. Farming. Canning. Stacking.