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Did The Fed Ignite The "Irresponsibility" Of US Oil Over-Supply?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi has asked why he should be responsible for cutting output while U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said non-OPEC producers should reduce "irresponsible" production. How can that be? How can American production be 'irresponsible' in the land of the free (money). Well, as the following chart from Bloomberg shows, perhaps OPEC members have a point...

As Bloomberg's Chart of the Day shows, crude production in the U.S. increased 75 percent over the past 5 years while output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries grew 5 percent.

Canada boosted supplies by 42 percent while Brazil pumped 24 percent more, according to data from New York-based Energy Intelligence Group.

“The biggest contributor to the glut has been the rising output in the U.S., which has driven up global supplies,” said Kang Yoo Jin, a commodities analyst in Seoul at NH Investment & Securities Co.

 

“OPEC producers can’t be completely free from taking the blame as they were the ones who let U.S. shale oil players enter the market by limiting supply and keeping oil at $100.”

*  *  *
However, what we find most intriguing is the inflection point in US production came at a coincidentally (because to claim causality would be ridiculous, right?) crucial time for the Federal Reserve as it went all in on unlimited open-ended money-printing which crashed the cost of funding for any and every project no matter how non-economic through-the-cycle.

Perhaps this post should be re-named "A Fed-Induced Mal-Investment Boom Busts In Real-Time"...

 

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Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:15 | 5654119 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Prince Bin Tal whatever has been a major shareholder in Citi going back to that last bank implosion around Poppy Bush.   He bought a bunch of Citi and they recapitalized it.  How many times has Citi been bailed out by taxpayers in the last 25 years?  At least twice.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:20 | 5654138 Four chan
Four chan's picture

well goldman bid it up to 150 then shorted it down so...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:23 | 5654422 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

All inflation is a monetary phenom. - Uncle Milt

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:19 | 5654130 Silver Short Seller
Silver Short Seller's picture

If anything the Fed helped break OPEC by lowering funding costs for US producers resulting in an oil glut. 

The true market price of oil was always lower but the OPEC cartel had enough market power to restrict supply. Thanks to the Fed, this is no longer the case.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:28 | 5654160 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

The irony of one monopoly-created bubble bursting another monopoly-created bubble is devinely delicious. 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:57 | 5654479 Four chan
Four chan's picture

great point.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 06:50 | 5654714 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

OK... Here's for all you conspiracy theory-tards..

The "Tribe" via control of  the Feral Reserve funded the US oil boom to crush the economies, and thus military might  of Israel's oil producing enemies

Now have fun with that one....

BTW... This theory also explains the "Tribe" (Soros) versus "Non-Tribe" (Buffett) sides of the Keystone Pipeline battle.

Damn..  Where do I get this shit??

Must be the new scotch I've been drinking lately.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:10 | 5654785 jughead
jughead's picture

that's why I drink old scotch

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 02:05 | 5654495 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

one of the few forms of market competition left: oligopoly vs. oligopoly

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:23 | 5654139 Bush Baby
Bush Baby's picture

Obama - Increase Fed taxes until gas hits $4.00, use money for unemployment benefits and EBT cards for laid off oil workers, it's all good and don't forget to vote for a candidate with that "New Car Smell"

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:24 | 5654151 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

What about my free 2 year community college?

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 03:01 | 5654550 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Yes, 2 years for free then enter a cool job at McDs:

 

McDonald's to Lay Off Employees under $100M Cost Cut Plan - Analyst Blog

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-lay-off-employees-under-17500535...

 

 

Ok, well, then, maybe not so easy ....

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 06:08 | 5654694 spinone
spinone's picture

With all that free Fed money, McD can afford to invest in burger flipping robots and touch screen menus, allowing them to get rid of pesky humans.  Yay Fed!

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:34 | 5654819 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Obama is the lamest duck in US history.  The media still takes him seriously, but that's it.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:44 | 5654347 azbear
azbear's picture

That article says it all...citi,Saudi's,Fed, trillions

 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:55 | 5654475 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Anyone else sending Anne Green Dot visas?

If you're on Zero Hedge you should at least send $10 a month.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:09 | 5654100 Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

I never thought I'd live to see the day when ZH suggests the Fed might have done something good!

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:14 | 5654116 bilbert
bilbert's picture

Say what?

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:17 | 5654129 Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

I am really enjoying this "irresponsible over-supply" every time I go to the filling station.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:30 | 5654163 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Makes me feel almost as guilty as I do over 'global warming' on a warm, sunny day in January.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:10 | 5654264 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yeah, its killing me almost having a middle class life again ;-)

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:17 | 5654128 kowalli
kowalli's picture

???

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:36 | 5654449 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Any OPEC pain is incidental to Dollar fears and WS bailouts of Fracking junk bonds driven by unexpected degradation of Fracking wells. ....

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:42 | 5654828 winchester
winchester's picture

dafuq man !?

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:09 | 5654101 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Kind of stupid to confine this to country boundaries. Nearly all big oil companies drill all over the globe. You might as well claim that free Fed money pumped up the oil production because it allowed the big global oil companies to drill, drill, drill on-the-cheap

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:16 | 5654125 Freddie
Freddie's picture

This is just like fiber optic networks and junk bonds back in 1999.   Worldcom was stupid thinking their network was special and they charged a premium.

Then Wall Street raised junk bonds for at least 6 or 7 national fiber option networks that were not needed at the time.  Too much supply brought to you by junk bonds.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:27 | 5654154 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I was sitting in a bar one night in late 2000, when I started a conversation with an attractive nurse having a few drinks with her girlfriends. She started expounding on the next great telecom stock, Global Crossing, and telling me I should mortgage the house to buy. The next day I went online and shorted as much as possible. I knew it was over for GC.

:-)

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:42 | 5654341 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You should have seen it from the inside.

 

"The Michael Milken Special."

 

And those are the folks in charge of the Treasury right now.

 

Imagine if we forced these clowns to actually pay in physical currency...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 02:03 | 5654489 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

In 2000 I was CFO of a telecommunications construction company based next to the Miramar Marine Base.

Global Crossing was wanting us to build for them.  I did a cursory check of their 10-k.  They had basically no cash, AR was huge and AP was humongeous.

I mentioned these facts to the owener and the president.

We didn't take their contract.

We were mortally wounded by the United States Marines on 9/13/2001,,,when they demanded that we physically move from their perimeter.  We didn't actually die until later in November.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:26 | 5654155 arby63
arby63's picture

You are only irresponsible if you lose your own money. If you lose investor money then that is their problem. Either way, it's not Saudi Arabia's issue, concern or problem. Fucking shitfucks that they are.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:43 | 5654348 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What if I lose the State of Vermont?

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:29 | 5654162 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Wow, that brings back memories.  Worldcom.  What a total POS.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:19 | 5654298 Freddie
Freddie's picture

There fiber optic network, UU Net, was good but they were charging like a 30% premium.  They were selling a commodity.  Qwest got their network up then it seem like one every 3 months came up.   Goldman got the shareholders of some electric utility in the upper midwest (Montana?) to sell their power plants and become a fiberoptic company.   It was criminal.

I think it was Montana Power.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:51 | 5654360 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Great company out of Syracuse NY that makes microwave telecom.

Yes...we do make more than beer.

Let me guess...can't even make that in Manhattan.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:42 | 5654948 wrs1
wrs1's picture

All the bandwidth got used as all the extra oil will be used.  Way more bandwidth now than back in 1999 and it's all been used, same with oil production.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:10 | 5654106 stpioc
stpioc's picture

Yea, if there is a bubble somewhere, the Fed must be the culprit

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2787405-there-must-be-a-bubble-somewhere

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:12 | 5654107 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Al-Feda

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:11 | 5654108 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

We, TeamDepends, would like to take this opportunity to apologize for "our" "central bank". See, it was here long before we were born and nobody told us how incredibly evil it is....

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:12 | 5654110 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

This is the worst chart i've seen this week. You can't just drill and start producing oil on demand. It takes time to ramp up. That chart marker with QE3 is just stupid. Also, chart not logarithmic.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:18 | 5654134 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

You can't take the logarithm of a negative number - chart Y axis is production growth which dips below zero.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 02:40 | 5654532 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

You are right, the drilling started with QE1.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 05:51 | 5654676 css1971
css1971's picture

Right... The Y axis isn't labeled admittedly, but is a percentage. Taking the logarithm of a percentage would be redundant and silly.

And the chart does back up what you say. It takes time to ramp up production. From the point QE3 is announced, the bankers know they have cheap, riskless funding so can go ahead and finance drilling. Which then starts to ramp up.

 

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:13 | 5654115 ChickaBoom
Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:25 | 5654306 Major Malfunction
Major Malfunction's picture

Your ZH link links to a "Page Not Found" ...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:10 | 5654396 Major Malfunction
Major Malfunction's picture

Wow. Fascinating. I'm certain they didn't want anyone to notice (and to have posted on the 'Nets) that ...

It's almost like a bad auto accident you pass on the road -- it's horrible, it's bad, yet you are drawn to look -- you can't turn away . . .

Also fascinating to see -- when various initially-unassuming dots are connected -- what pictures form...

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:17 | 5654126 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

" producers should reduce "irresponsible" production."

The markets will decide who is an irresponsible producer. And the markets say "the highest cost producer IS the irresponsible producer." And them the markets will crush the high cost oil producers with losses at the well-head and financial ruin at the hands of the bankers and bond holders, who will fight over the scraps in Bankruptcy Court.

Meanwhile, the Fed will juice markets to new exploding highs, as another liquidity dump is passed to the 1% interests for them to buy the dip.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:18 | 5654133 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

That reminds me. Somebody please give ISIS the address of the Federal Reserve!!

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:23 | 5654142 Stained Class
Stained Class's picture

Dude, we have a process, and I have a job. 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:26 | 5654310 Major Malfunction
Major Malfunction's picture

Dude, what?

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 02:06 | 5654496 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

and the Sacramento address of the California Legislature/Senate.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:37 | 5654158 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"The markets will decide who is an irresponsible producer...."

The thing is, there has not an oil market for more than 50 years.  "OPEC is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and it was founded at a meeting on September 14, 1960, in Baghdad, Iraq by five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.  Since then Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (1962), United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), and Angola (2007) have joined the organization."   Since 1960, countries that considered selling oil in currenices other than the dollar have not done so well.  Iran, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela.  The African countries of Algeria, Nigeria and Angola have become failed nation states, controlled by warlords who allow global oil companies to drill there.  Saudi Arabia has done just fine for some reason, as have Kuwait and UAE, all three of whom are protected by the US military in exchange for trading oil in dollars.  All three are run by Royalty.

America started drilling, baby, drilling again recently.  Relatively small companies (many of whom were not controlled by global interests) made a lot of money.  Now those entities are going to go bankrupt, and banks will take them over.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:48 | 5654210 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

yep. All that land and equipment purchased on credit will end up getting a visit from the repo-man. All of these people buying into the shale boom are going to lose their asses, but, all that oil will still be sitting there, waiting. Eventually the price will come back up, could be many years from now, and someone will go pump it out of the ground. However, if self preservation is an instinct the royal families possess, they might want to exercise a little restraint in how much they pump at these prices. Those oil wells arent limitless, and when they are gone, the US will have no more use for the royal family, and they will be left high and dry. I wouldn't want to see what happens to them when they are no longer able to keep the peasants docile with their oil revenue table scraps

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:27 | 5654436 daveO
daveO's picture

They'll fly to NYC and set up permanent residency.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:17 | 5654797 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Two words refute your hypothesis... "abiotic oil"...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:47 | 5654960 wrs1
wrs1's picture

You still have to find it.  It doesn't come back in the same spot, unless of course the fields here in the US weren't really abiotic and the ones in the ME are.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:54 | 5654970 wrs1
wrs1's picture

The repo man always sells it at a lower price and the people that are drilling will offer their services for much lower than the ridiculous prices they were getting when oil was $100/bbl.  Saudi Arabia is stupid.  But out where my oil is, there are too many people using the few roads and it just can't sustain any greater development than it already has.  So holding steady or dropping back a bit won't hurt a thing and if it's at lower prices, that may be a good thing all around.  What I can promise you is that oil production isn't going back down because it's still a money spigot once the oil starts coming out.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:06 | 5654259 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You should be happy small companies put one over on the bankers.

Sure, the bankers can come get the equipment but I doubt mineral rights were part of the deal ;-)

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:16 | 5654284 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Of course the mineral rights will be part of the deal.  When you file bankruptcy due to cash flow problems (created by the banks), you have to give up your assets.  To the banks.  

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:58 | 5654373 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And then what?

 

The bank will not run that.

 

This is why debt and recovery matter.  "You can lose liquidity fast." The Banker closest to the scene of the crime will know better than the "big money" (vig money?) ever will.

That's why I like the Bank of North Dakota...they've seen these clowns before.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:15 | 5654393 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Disabled vet who worked for the global banking interests and now takes their money in the form of disability payments should know -- Saudi Arabia owns Citi, and Citi is a major owner of the US oil interests that are going belly up.  http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/EVEP/0x0x782412/aa5765f0-aa8f-413...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:55 | 5654977 wrs1
wrs1's picture

The mineral rights are only leased, the oil has to continue to be poduced and developed or the lease terminates.  I am not against oil at $20 for a couple or three months.  It willl take the stripper operator out of business and it will keep XTO from drilling within 30 days and I will get all my minerals back to the center of the earth from the horrible lease that my ancestors signed back in 1950 on one of my sections.  Then I wouldn't mind prices coming back up so that I can get a good lease bonus and get some nice deep shale wells drilled for $80 oil.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 11:26 | 5655308 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

this set of events is an opportunity for increased efficiency in the shale patches... the gold rush days are over, time for operations to mature...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 03:06 | 5654553 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

I have leased mineral rights. You never sell them.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:39 | 5654337 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

It's not that simply Randy.  Life doesn't all work according to your progressive world view.  "Drill baby drill" was a political stunt by the global-warming democrats, yet you still believe that's the problem.  Our problem is not domestic energy.  Are you still spooked by Palin, you fag?  Every thinking person knows that many of our problems can be alleviated by not being dependent on oil from the ME.   You're smarter than that, I hope.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:03 | 5654381 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

So now Palin is a progressive global warming democrat?  I guess when all else fails you can still distill all of the world's problems to Progressives and democrats, and even label Palin as one.  And I'm being simplistic.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:11 | 5654402 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Don't mind me, I just have fun watching your progressive ass fending off Putin.  You're like a bitch that leaves her man and wonders what went wrong.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 10:56 | 5655171 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

You say you're spiritual/religious, yet make vile comments.

Typical religious hypocrite.  I suspect your moral compass is broken.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:13 | 5654406 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

if we were completely energy independent, how would we export all those dollars to, and how would those countries like SA recycle those dollars into USTs? Also, since we met our own oil needs and no longer are the largest oil importer, what reason is there for the rest of the world to keep making energy related transactions only it USDs? That would ruin the precious petrodollar pretty quickly. yours is a simpetons argument

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:31 | 5654440 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Life goes on, and I believe in God so I think long term. So the USD is finished as a reserve currency, who cares?  Is that a good thing for the world? you decide, time will tell.  The US was kicking ass spiritually and economically as a constitutional republic long before it ever became the world currency.  If our founders were anything like the nihilistic bitchez we have today, they'd be hoping that the spanish crown would kicks ass on the Brits for our independence.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:46 | 5654956 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Why do you think production dropped here in the US?  The shallow oil got consumed and it's being consumed in the ME but right now, at a rate that insures it will be gone more quickly than before.  We will see $100 oil sooner than you think.  Of course the know nothings on this board always think they have it figured out but of course the world hasn't ended, silver isn't $200/oz, the market hasn't crashed and gold isn't $5000/oz.  Still waiting and oh yeah, Peak Oil was just peak bullshit which we see a lot of here.  Course I don't think bullshit ever peaks.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:21 | 5654137 Stained Class
Stained Class's picture

In this day & age of INSTANT INFORMATION, how did we miss this? 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:52 | 5654363 Elliott Eldrich
Elliott Eldrich's picture

Information is not the same as wisdom, just because you have the data doesn't mean you have the ability to process it properly. Worse is the fact that there are multiple actors out there who do their best to distort, obscure or fabricate the information investors use to base their decisions on. Combine all of the above, and it is no longer all that hard to figure out how we missed this.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:51 | 5654460 Phil Free
Phil Free's picture

That, and we now have the danger of transitioning from the 'Information Age', into the "Super-Information-Age" ... just think about it.

Five exabytes of content were created between the birth of the world and 2003.

In 2012, 2.5 exabytes of content were created daily.

In 2013, 5 exabytes of content were created daily.

As of 2014, 2.3 zettabytes of content were created daily.

I don't know about you, but as cool as my cranium is, this is simply toooo much data for my wetware to parse in any effective manner.

One reason I like coming here ... seeing what the Tylers parse is usually a learning experience.. 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 05:51 | 5654677 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

2003? 2012? 2013? 2014?

1981

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUwd737mioM

but then, you know; musicians

<rolls eyes>

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:23 | 5654147 arby63
arby63's picture

When there is real price discovery in gasoline prices then we can talk. When they stop trading oil that hasn't even been retrieved then we can talk. Until then. Fuck you Saudi Arabia.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:26 | 5654152 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

How has no one been corzined by this yet?

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:25 | 5654153 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Oh horrors, gas could go to 99 cents a gallon. Fill er up bud.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:02 | 5654244 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I long for the day when the "new Tylers" cast away their pre-disposition to everything having a geo-political and euro-centric slant. The oil boom started well before the ridiculous Ukraine and Putin distraction, rigs don't appear out of the mist like ghosts, it takes time.

Tried to tell em, including that idiot Flakmeister.

The only thing they're right about is the cost of extraction/profit but there is no shortage, we do have more than the Saudis and now they know it and they're scared shitless, for good reason.

Not chess, poker...put your money (or your monarchy) in the pot or fold.

They folded ;-)

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 02:11 | 5654504 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Obama doesn't play chess or poker...he plays 'Sorry'.  Random dice moves, no critical thought involved.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 12:12 | 5655476 rgrdnrjr
rgrdnrjr's picture

Obama's policies are about the same as those of moderate Republicans have been.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 06:09 | 5654689 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"but there is no shortage"

lol While I recall Flakmeister as being more or less capable of holding his own I don't remember when he ever maintained that there was a current shortage of oil. Could you provide a link?

thanks

')

 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:00 | 5654772 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yes he could hold his own in the oil patch however many times it was by cherry picking & obfuscation but I do remember him downplaying the potential of Bakkan or ANWR (along with other areas) and long winded running debates on quality or access in lowering prices, no doubt because of his other pet interest in "man-made global warming".

But who or what are you going to believe, me or $45.66 a barrel Brent? ;-)

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 15:44 | 5656022 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Oh neither, of course. I believe in the surreality of $45.66 USD Brent like I believe in the sustainability of $32.46 WCS transported @ $11/bbl, or in contradictory, self serving, osch Kosh bro'goch neoliberal musings on a 'financial' website, or in the impossibility that an irresponsible species can adversely affect its environment.

  IE not so very much.

lol relax,  after four years I'm quite certain you are capable of maintaining your position as ZH's Queen echochambermaiden of doubleplusgood obfuscation, misrepresentation, and sneaky inconsistency...maybe you mistook Flak as some sort of competition to your crown? You really needn't have worried: your purple robes are secure, as Flak was far more concerned with listing/linking to facts rather than extrapolating fictions, and longevity rather than short-term potentials.

...why are we talking about Flak in the past tense anyway? I hope he's all right?

'>

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 19:28 | 5657737 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I don't know whether I should feel insulted or complimented...lol.

Dunno where Flaks at, after endlessly linking to climateskeptic (and no one hitting the link) maybe they fired him and he couldn't make his light bill ;-)

As far as being and "ehco-chamber", I'm pretty sure I just went against the grain (the tenor if you will) of this article (maybe you missed it). I'm no Fed defender but every other nation on earth has "a Fed" (Russia, China, Brussels...errr Europa) and even without massive printing & manipulation the rigs would have still gone in because of profit-supply-demand.

Its pretty basic, with or without the Fed, capital goes where its welcome.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 07:22 | 5654730 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

When I was a kid going to school, the teachers taught me oil was created from dead dinasaurs.

Then came the seventies and fuel was rationed and went through the roof and the compact car and 4 cylinder became well known.

Now it is coming out of our ears while China is the biggest new car market in the world, a market which was not really there in the seventies.

Go figure, I wonder who is playing who? :)

 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:07 | 5654784 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Anyone that thinks we can continuously pump 90 MBPD out of the ground that came from decomposed dino shit is full of shit...

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:35 | 5654174 Oreilly
Oreilly's picture

Who cares about percentage changes.  Put this chart in to absolute volumes of oil and you might have something to talk about.  My percentage change in salary might be close to Warren Buffet's, but that doesn't mean we're making anywhere near the same amount of money.  Using percentages to prove a point is meaningless.

Additionally, looking at how anything changed over the past 5 years means you're looking at the difference between the extreme trough seen in ALL commodities in 2009 due to the financial crisis vs. QE inflation.  How is that meaningful in any way?  Compare US oil growth to 6 years ago and I'd bet you get a different story.

Come on Tyler, you don't need to manufacture this stuff to get a point across.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:34 | 5654176 The Shape
The Shape's picture

So moar print then after oil really starts causing havoc.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:43 | 5654195 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Alternate Headline:

Drill Baby Drill Offsets Working Class Losses To ObamaCare

Sub Head:

Crony Socialists Drown In An Ocean Of Oil ;-)

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 12:18 | 5655496 rgrdnrjr
rgrdnrjr's picture

Obamacare, the ACA, did what most of the conservative Democrats and Republican's wanted. It turned most of Medicare over to the private sector to cut the government deficit.

Mon, 01/12/2015 - 23:56 | 5654221 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

QE and ZIRP, the matches that lit the fuse...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:21 | 5654800 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

 Nobody, nada, zilch , ZIRP,  could have seen this coming..... gross malinvestment brought on by monetary policy

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:38 | 5654330 azbear
azbear's picture

Hide in plain sight...Citi, Saudi's, ...Fed...trillions

http://www.barnhardt.biz/2015/01/09/how-could-trillions-of-dollars-be-la...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 00:49 | 5654358 anachronism
anachronism's picture

Saudi Arabia's actions make perfect sense on economic terms. It watched as US oil shale production approached near maximum output, and as the majority of its producers became irresponsibly over-leveraged ("all-in" financially-speaking). Then, it deeply cut the price of oil to a level which is well below all of the U.S. producers' breakeven points. Their intent is simple and direct: wipe out the competition -not only on the basis of price- but also wipe out their means of recovery and re-entry, after the Saudis start to raise the price of oil again. That is why the Russians are expecting prices to get back above $70 within 2 years.

This is what Microsoft, Standard Oil, Kodak, and various companies within "Japan, Inc.", for exapmple,  have done or attempted to do in eras past. This is what monopolies and cartels do. This is why we put anti-trust legislation in place more than a century ago. Unfortunately, the "New World Order" Globalists wanted to play the oligopoly game on a worldwide basis. So our country's regulations -intended to encourage competition and to prevent concentration- have been taken down.

The only way for an industry that is attacked this way is to seek and get "protection" from its national government. Quotas, tariffs, and embargos have been ordered by the United States to protect domestic industries in the past. It remains to be seen if the U.S. domestic oil producers can organize themselves and can put an effective lobbying effort to work in time.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 06:34 | 5654693 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

No chance.

The destruction of Putin has generated tunnel vision on the part of "they" that nothing short of world economic collapse and/or WWIII will break.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:28 | 5654433 starman
starman's picture

The Arabs are fucking the US! Jelly up cause there's more to come!

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 01:40 | 5654453 Cardinal Fang
Cardinal Fang's picture

Maybe Saudi is trying to reroute the next few pipelines on the drawing board...Ya know?

Bin Laden was on about the very same thing. His concern was that when the world switches to alternative energy and alternative sources of oil the Middle East becomes irrelevant, he knew that all they were gonna have left is a bunch of sand. So he took action now, while the world still needed Middle Eastern oil. He knew it will be hard to fight for relevence 50 years from now when they are all starving over there in the sandbox.

50 years from now. Ha ha ha ha, i have to laugh at what the fucking world is gonna be like then. Its gonna be more of a shit show than it is now, for sure.

Maybe everyone will be starving.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:02 | 5654775 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Alternative energy will NEVER replace oil.  That's just a green weanie fucking pipe dream for the ignorant masses that do not understand how many products they use every minute of every day are made from oil.  Only if you want to go back to living in caves will you eliminate the demand for oil...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:17 | 5654890 Sambo
Sambo's picture

Oil has been around for a couple of centuries + or -.... civilization existed for millenia before oil was put to use.

And...they were not living in caves.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 12:02 | 5655432 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

That's correct but then try telling modern mad that he has to live without plastics etc

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 12:22 | 5655514 rgrdnrjr
rgrdnrjr's picture

We only have aroud 50 years worth of oil. We had better find something else.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 02:03 | 5654491 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

I thought fracking didn't work? Decline rates and all of that.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 07:57 | 5654765 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Any method of extraction works as long as the price is right...

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 03:15 | 5654564 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

So the Saudis are peeved and admit they are trying to kill US frackers, they are admitting it and bragging about it?

That sounds like illegal trade war, allowing US to put huge tariffs on Saudi oil.  Of course oil being fungible that won't work.  Anyway it's all too complicated for our simple-minded POTUS, but you'd think some of his green weenie friends would be getting on him.  Wait for it.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 11:24 | 5655297 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Not sure that it wouldn't work but the US should take some data to the WTO and slap a $25/bbl tarrif on all Saudi and gulf states oil imported to US ports.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 03:30 | 5654575 wildbad
wildbad's picture

this chart shows only growth, not gross numbers.  opec's growth is hidden here by its huge production.  i don't buy the argument.  the saudis are playing the long game.  what they are losing in fiat current cash they are gaining in reduced price, post crash  oil real estate.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 04:17 | 5654605 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Supply and demand with free markets, this is what they look like.

 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 07:48 | 5654746 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

How quickly our esteemed elected ones step in to try and raise the price of gasoline with more taxes is one of the most telling actions in modern times. Until their hearts and minds (necks) are with the ones that elected them, there is no future for our country.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:17 | 5654794 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

..... Yes Sir, look at all that good money going right into the hands all the "regular people ". This will not stand.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 07:56 | 5654759 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Fox news had talking heads saying the the consumer is going to get so screwed in this low oil price. We will go back to buying gas guzzlers then the price of oil will go up and we're screwed as consumers. They're empathy for us little consumers is fucking amazing. I nearly drove off the road hearing that shit on the radio.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:25 | 5654805 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Cheap oil forever and ever, go long cruising Main street.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:44 | 5654830 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

So much for that fast fix.  What's next FED?  Free college and rapid assistant mgr advancement at fast food joints?

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 08:54 | 5654847 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Saudi's are pissed.

Allah gave them that market share and now they want it back.

Holy War!

Wahabis at your Arby's coming soon. 

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 09:32 | 5654914 wrs1
wrs1's picture

But of course the US was the world's largest oil producer just thirty years ago and so what if it moves back to that spot again?   I am confident that prices for producing the shale oil will adjust accordingly.  We know it's there, we know how to get it in large quantities and it's going to get produced irrespective of price.   The ME religious lunatics may just lose the power they thought they had.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 10:33 | 5655093 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

All these assholes are yapping about how low gas prices are going to help consumption, but of course they can't WAIT to get their hands on any of that 'extra money' by raising gas taxes...So where do they think this consumer spending will come from?
Guess what, jerks...YOU already spent the money for the consumer, so don't hold your breath. They just cannot WAIT to get their hands on the savings, can't abide letting that consumer enjoy his little discount.
I hope we get a nice, long deflation...I want to watch all their artificially-bloated 'wealth' burn off like morning fog. And just wait till deflation hits the tax base...Revenues are going to take a big hit. Let's see housing prices tank, and see them try to raise taxes anyway.
"The people" don't HAVE the money for them to take, and soon their greed will slam headfirst into a wall.
They gave all the money to their friends, they're gonna have to hit THEM up for any money they want to spend. Good luck with that.
I will enjoy watching them starve for revenue...some of these folks may have to take pay cuts...oh, the horror!
And wait till they get the taxpayer to fund Keystone for oil under 50 a barrel...who is going to end up with that bill? That is going to be a major disappointment for those expecting Keystone to be the answer to all our problems...I hope the Repubs and Dems pushing it have answers ready when their people start asking questions. Keystone will be costly to build...they'd better hope those jobs are worth it. And low prices are going to crack up a lot of debt, will they be able to convince taxpayers to bail out those loans?
So, aside from Keystone, where else do our fearless leaders see job growth coming from? A nation of part-time burger-flippers can't exactly manage a global empire, nor can they support a huge bureaucracy of government workers.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 11:06 | 5655209 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Good post

How much of new age industry exists only because of free money and how much industry which was product of diligence has been destroyed by the bankers dealing free money?

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 11:22 | 5655287 wrs1
wrs1's picture

So who is the irresponsible producer?

 

http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/news/story/61159-uae-sticks-oil-ou...

 

LOLOL!!!! UAE on track to increase production to 3.5mmbbl/day by 2017.

Tue, 01/13/2015 - 12:35 | 5655552 Shitgum Suicide
Shitgum Suicide's picture

So the fed and the US are responsible for bringing the price of oil down to a realistic value that was artificially pumped up by OPEC and Russia who NEEDS $100 a barrel oil for their economy.
Sounds like the US was trying to put a stop to the economic warfare being played on them by OPEC and Russia.
If I didn't know better i'd think someone was trying to peddle some propaganda here.

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