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Homebuilders Plunge From First To Worst As 'Efficient Stock Market' Wrong Again
But, but, but... homebuilder stocks were surging early on - just like they did at one point yesterday - proving that 'they' know something right? Right? Homebuilders are now the biggest losers - down 3% from the highs - as KB Home's conference call slashes guidance, pulls land deals, and expects margin compression...
- *KBH SEES 1Q BOTTOM LINE ABOUT BREAK-EVEN (against expectations of a 17c rise!)
- *KB HOME CFO SAYS FIRST-QUARTER MARGINS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN
- *KB HOME PULLED OUT OF `COUPLE' HOUSTON LAND DEALS, CEO SAYS
Can you see where that news hit?
And how it affected the broad homebuilder sector...
Of course the credit markets were somewhat rational through this pump-and-dump...
As stocks catch down to USDJPY (breaking 118)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Surprised it ran as far as it did.
its not that surprising.... these shitty builders charge a massive premium for garbage chinese imported materials... I am more surprised they haven't fallen apart yet.
True that. Only instead of builders, you could probably insert any american industry into that sentence. Or the entire economy for that matter
No shit, Who needs home builders when we're about to go full fucking nuke-tard with Vlad now!!?
Duh!
But it will stop global warming!!
And if you think crude oil is cheap now!
Vlad's leaving.
Right when one of the most ostentatious places ever to be created comes to market
http://observer.com/2015/01/with-ruble-in-freefall-russians-scramble-to-...
Seriously
Check this shit out: http://432parkavenue.com/?state=home
And go to the residences and prices pages!!!!!!
PS "Efficient markets" I got soooooo sick and tired of hearing about "Oh How Markets Are Efficient for my Equity Brethren. Point out inefficiencies and they'd have some sophist bull-shit saying like "If it rains in Brazil during the equinox in Spain, your child will die a painful dyslexic death in Hell for a week while your weenie rots off in your hand." or something as intelligent .... oh never fucking mind.
Fuck me! The next airborne kamikaze target!
Wow, I never knew that about rain in Brazil.
Thanks dude!
Shit, that 432 Park Ave will provide one heck of a great view of SHTF eventually. Do they have a roof-top heliopad so the residents can evacuate when the orchestrated Lumpenproletariat riots get going? Armed security guards? (everyone knows Teh Gunz are regarded as eeeevil in NYC, Doomberg has armed guards protect him while he bungee jumps from 5th Ave curbs, but if a prole wants to protect him/her self you're best bet is to move out of NYC)
A tall ostentatious target for the agitated envious (maybe shouting "Justice For Traytable!!!11!") just seems like a bad idea, the financial downside to the idea has been well covered by other ZH commenters
I'm looking at the homes being built, and they have giant signs saying from the "low 400s". These subdivisions are taking years and years to finish, with some almost hitting a decade as the land was cleared way back in 2005. Back in the 1990s a similar project would be done in 18 months and be priced from the 100s.
I don't know how these builders are even finding buyers when most people are making $29,000 a year if they are lucky enough to have a job. The few professionals that do make a more respectable income have their wages garnished from student loan debt.
I know guys that work for the major builders and the glory days of the 1990s and early 2000s are long, long gone. They have to get second jobs at grocery stores or other entry level work just to make ends meet.
HVAC and plumbers always drive nice trucks!
If they didn't get out of new residential about 2006 ish and go to commercial service most lost their ass. Even that's petering out now.
crap made in China
repackaged, rebranded, marketed and advertised in America for shitloads of Dollars
still same crappy product in the box
modern Confucius say, what the fkcu could possibly go wrong?
KB Homes needs to start using quality American construction materials again: cardboard and duct tape.
KB = Krappily Built
It's all to keep the illusion going. We don't just have Potemkin villages, we have an entire Potemkin economy.
Yes, we need more homes. After all the banks are so backed up with foreclosures something needs to be done.
I looked at some nice homes in Tampa once. Solid beautiful homes, went back five years later, new phase. Interior was complete garbage, practically disposable construction materials. Brand new home looked like the interior would last five years.
Thats the least of your problems.Had a client die from the mold in that Chinese drywall.
Suppliers have bought the "Happy Days are here again" meme and 10% price increases are coming regularly in the mail. The Tract home builders and cheerleaders are going to have a hard time telling them they were just kidding about the "recovery" and to stop with the price increases on material and they should know with a certainty that wages are not going up since they have been beating the shit out of subcontractors for the last 7 years, what, did they think they were the only industry that was holding the line on wage increases. But then again, this is what "immigration reform" is all about anyways, wage suppression. They are having are hard time closing the loop on this recovery when the middle class is broke and broker.
Steve LIESman "This just doesn't make sense, the fundamentals are strong"
not sure how he lives with himself unless he is completely and truely delusional.
dup, see below
Obamacare is furthering the destruction of our economy: What used to be called "disposable income" is now earmarked for ridiculous premiums and deductables. My premiums went up 40% and the deductable doubled, just to keep the same care.
Yeah, I'm gonna go purchase a NEW HOUSE!!!! #Winning
has to be said twice, fuck yeah obama care will kill all
WHAT .. THE .. F*CK
I was assured this was a winning trade.
Oh, but it was. Just not for you.
Every trade is a winning trade. Your job is to figure out which side it is. If you're a big kahuna, it's easy.
Too funny.
Even with ZIRP, cheap oil, and a "recovery" they're at break-even.
With all the bartender and waitress jobs being created, I would have thought for sure we were at escape velocity. LOL
Bartenders? lmao. WT F.....it's so bad down here no one can afford to go to the bar and pay inflated prices to drink shitty beer. Fuck, it's like going to the movies and paying $ 10.00 for a $0.06 woth of poprorn with artificial butter on it. Bars are near all time low attendance....coupled with cops waiting to arrest anyone coming out the door to generate revenue for the state. Booze would be a great investment....stock up on several pallets of some really good stuff now...will be better property than food or gold when SHTF. Oh....and feminine hygiene products...those will be worth a fortune.
Might have something to do with the "consumer" being completely tapped out.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO
HYG & JNK also just went red and a smattering of Banks also
yep - and Sears, Aeropostale, JC Penney, KMart, etc. etc. are also hiring!!! so go get that high paying job!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6cn0mLJVZY
http://www.wnd.com/2015/01/retail-earthquake-all-these-big-name-stores-c...
I can only imagine the shock as people who invested in housing fail to reap the promised rewards.
I'm sure it looks a lot like the shock that Keystone pipeline and oil investors will be feeling when all the profits from 25 dollar a barrel oil start rolling in, along with all the debt payments based on 75 dollar oil.
"How can this happen? We're not supposed to LOSE! WHAAAAAA!! Gimme my money back, it's not FAIR!"
WWooo everything is Awesome again!
My confirmation bias has me smiling right now...sick,eh?
all that slashing, tearing, pulling it up gives me a cheer
down you all go bastards! time to end this fucking charade
Is the US Debt crashing with everything else? Last time my personal economy crashed (lost my job etc) seems like my debt only got worse and harder to pay off.
Home sales are 100% all stop in my So CAL neighborhood (ave price of past sales is ~ 800k). Current values are probably unknown.
are you saying there are no sales at all?
is it a shale town we never heard off?
Homes that are for sale have sat for over 5 months and no sales. I've seen a flip down the street that orig listed for $1,075k and was reduced to $975k and now the listing is gone and sitting vacant.
who were the typical buyers in that hood and why has the market dried up?
my guess is that the Chinese and other offshore buyers aren't coming as strong as they were and the locals wouldn't take on big mortgages to buy million dollar places ....
When does the big dump in paper gold begin again? It must be soon.
Houston homes? Remember, low oil prices are unequivacally good...
Yessir, the trade of the day was to go short after JOLTS, especially in IWM which, after a classic (and a bit obvious) up fake-out, managed to then surprise even clever shorts by trading past the 20 DMA, nearly kissing yesterday's 50 DMA end-target as I type this. If that fails, well, we could be lookin' at a round-tripper today, shocking for perma-bulls, forcing CNBC to adjust their dork guest-list to those urging 'caution' in 2009.
My guess is that we meander horizontally, as has been the rule, till later in the day when algorithmic decisions, and re-calcs, will decide the close. Fascinating
Existing home inventories vs. new building home are a balancing act. Let use TOL as an example. Chart that on a 200 day moving average. Support reached peak. Spring will rejuvenate the next cycle.
http://stocktwits.com/symbol/TOL
OT- I'm suprised the Tyler's haven't said anything about the jump in silver by 3.78% this morning. Question is will we see this continue until Friday with a kick in the balls down to the $15 area again?
Or maybe the Tyler's know that silver will get a late afternoon smack down and so there will be no story to tell.
I was just signing on to say:
HI HO SILVER!!!
It's up 7.33% ytd too...too bad I bought Homebuilders.
Sell silver and buy homebuilders.
OT but worth it
Dana Durnford -- Needs Some Support, You Got a Digital Camera, Let's Go
I have been corresponding with Dana Durnford and offering my services for any engineering or research/analysis he could use to support his studies.
He humbly said, stock you are already doing enough, your website is a full time job.
But I did finally get him to come up with an idea....
BTW his email is danadurnford@hotmail.com He wants you to send him pictures at the beach.
See my plan below.
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/01/dana-durnford-needs-some-su...
At end of day buy all homebuilders you can. Fundamentals mean nothing. Have you not learned that yet? Listen to the Rabbi.
Steve Liesman is my rabbi so yea I got the message.
US real estate always favorite way to launder money. Burgeoning non-white population in US get subsidized housing. We create and control it all. What a country.
US real estate always favorite way to launder money. Burgeoning non-white population in US get subsidized housing. We create and control it all. What a country.
KBH is another US Government subsidized crony corporation seeking handouts. Look at link below.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nyse/kb-home/kbh
If you want to build a home. Build it. Don’t supersize the home with your bullshit solar agenda.
And WTF do people think really benefits from a 3% government guaranteed, taxpayer backed fucking mortgage? The builders! That's who!
first the oil then the home builders, then the banks, then the 2.5% mortgage. same cycle, continuously on the lower bound for 15 years now(could argue 36 years) and headed to the intrinsic value of paper money. whether printed by a bank(fed) or .gov(china and japan), money has zero value as a medium of exchange for barter transactions for the real value so money is only worth a transaction fee and a storage fee.
Kind of funny watching them lose traction. They never believed such resistance would prevail.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000346089
Propaganda, FAIL.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis was long ago debunked...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dont-get-ruined-by-these-10-popular-i...
the Chinese housing market is a good example.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/chinese-housing-market-suffering-from...
With central bank and government interventions any market theory is useless.
Went over my parents this weekend and the big news was that after 30yrs they were paying off the mortgage on their house. My father tried in vain to convince me a house is an investment and an asset once paid off. I told him a house is just a place to live, nothing more. Even when "owned", you still rent through the state by paying property tax. He argued vigorously until I asked him how much he paid in interest over top the value of the house. He got a mortgage in the 80's when interest rates were +10%. With interest, he paid for his house 4 times over in the life of his 30yr loan. After pointing this fact out to him, he was even more heartbroken when I explained to him that the money for his mortgage was merely created out of thin air through fractional reserve banking. Whole generations were sold lies and there will be repurcussions.
the biggest advantage homeownership affords an owner is the ability to pay less in rent with the money saved spent on other things. of course the extra money is created by inflation as is the value of most homes(if they don't end up in urban/suburban squalor and lose much of that value also).
less rent payments make ss workable for many people who bought the original homeowner model of buying and never moving. reverse mortgages(still a ripoff business) help them take cash out of it if they need it. if you are a good kid you should put their stuff in trust and figure out an easy way for them to access the value in their house in cash so they can get at it quickly in an emergency.
i invest in real estate so i have a different story. if you know what to do there are some great real estate opportunities out there if you never plan to leave or want to leave in a few years. don't listen to the no money down people(even though i bought my current home that way in 2011 when it "couldn't" be done). you can't do it without investing some money but it isn't spent on granite counter tops and bidets.
Give the folks a break. They put alot into raising pricks like you and I. I tried the whole PM etc. investment stuff with my parents. It is hard for someone to look back at a lifetime in the system and admit it is a joke. Let some keep the blue pill down and be there when they need your reality expertise after the s*** + fan= trouble.
Oh hell no!!
This can not be true! I refuse to believe this propaganda!
I just signed up for Steve & Hectors free house flipping seminar coming soon to my town, or one near me. They will show me how to flip myself rich!
and with 7-15 and 30 year mortgages intrest at record lows, this is gonna be fun to watch.
Due to the disappearance of second home building in the county where I live my property taxes are going up to cover the shortfall. For some reason we can't do with less.
Real Estate....
...carnage by the end of the year. As soon as the muppet's realize the market is rolling over, there is going to be a rush to be the first out the door.
It'll be glorious...!! I've got my down 60-70% bid(s) in the hopper...