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Canada Crude Contagion: Calgary Home Prices Drop Most In 2 Years
For the 2nd month in a row, home prices in Calgary - corporate hub of Canada's oil industry - have fallen. This is the biggest 2-month-drop in almost 2 years (and comes on the heels of yesterday's news that Suncor is slashing jobs and capex). As Bloomberg reports, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Tim Lane said yesterday development of the more expensive deposits are threatened by lower crude oil prices. "The dive in energy prices will put pressure on house prices in the Western provinces in the coming months," warns one economist and as the following chart shows, more pain is likely...
It appears the price of homes in Canada's most important energy region are extremely correlated with a lagged oil price... which suggests a lot more pain is to come...
* * *
As we explained previously, this won't end well...
In Canadian debt we trust
There was an inflexion point for US markets when household debt surpassed household income. People kept saying it was a liquidity crisis initially but it was truly a solvency crisis. People took on too much debt and were walking on a financial tightrope. In the US, this peaked above 120 percent. Canada is well on its way above 160 percent:
Basically Canadians are deeper in debt relative to their income. And a large part of this debt is housing related. A large part of the economy is also tied to oil and as you may know, oil just took a massive cut.
...
Canada has enjoyed many years of the global commodities boom and now finds itself contending with a market full of debt and inflated housing values. Short of oil rising back up to $80 a barrel and higher Canada is likely going to face some short-term pain. The housing market is due for a correction. Those of us in California realize that booms and busts can occur all of a sudden but the events leading up to this are largely foreseeable.
I’m sure many in Canada assume that home values will simply continue to go up and just because banks check incomes doesn’t mean squat. As the above data shows, households are already deep in the quicksand of massive debt. It is all dandy when everything is going up including oil. When oil gets smashed as it did, it came on quickly. Canada has their versions of $700,000 crap shacks usually in the form of condos. Hey, at least with a crap shack you don’t have to share a common wall. When you look at the Canadian housing market it makes the US look like a frugal uncle.
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Time for the Toronto and Vancouver market to cool down as well!
Short those Canadian Banks, should be the easiest money to make this year.
Matthew 7:26
"And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not, shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house of cards upon tar sand and that droppeth in value like a rock”.
King James Bible "Abominated Version"
Ah c wut ya did thar
Edmonton is the town to watch. They had an insane real estate boom up there in the late 90's when the oil sands stuff really started coming on line.
I don't suppose Banff/LL will feel the effects.
FFS, I remember when you could ski there without a....passport.
I've been in Edmonton for the last 6 years. Vancouver and Calgary are the places to look. Edm is actually not that bad
I don't think any Canadian cities are immune. Read this gem of a piece posted on ZH last September, then look again at that household debt:income chart and you really see how precarious canada is. It has all the ingredients of a blood bath, literally.
So how strong is the balance sheet for Banque du Canada? Not very. As it turns out, Banque du Canada is actually the most pitifully capitalized central bank in the western world. They’re in such bad shape they actually make the Fed look healthy.
Sooo obviously kept inflated by the banks to keep the illusion of household (and therefore, mortgage) solvency.
I thought you were living in Smoky Lake or thereabouts
i own a house around there. Geez how the hell did you know ? NSA ?
you made a comment way back about being in a cheap house in a small town - not edmonchuk - same kind of canadian real estate thread
and your name is Spitzer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcQ6p5GO3Qs
It started already. Property assesments for 2015 in Vancouver started to trickle in. Some downtown condos had their value decreased by 7-8% compared to last year, allegedly...
Property assessment for my "farm" on the Island just came in. 100K lower than last year, that's about 12%. I'm as happy as a piggy in his sty.
My parents just bought a 6 million dollar acreage in Abbotsford. Spent the last 6 years talking them out of it to no avail. Looks like they top ticked it
Ouch. Payed far less than 1/10th of that for my patch beyond the reach of the zombie masses.
Where ?
Middle of Vancouver Island.
Vacouver Island is where people go to age and die and loose the last vestiges of wealth. I expect a pricing carnage to set in there as well.
What is amazing is how cheap fifth wheels and motorhomes are on the Island (kijiji.ca) as most of the population there is the geriatic crew downsizing or dumping before the old folks homes.
Easiest money in the world, shorting Canadian banks.
Between oil contagion losses, real estate crash, and the most indebted consumers in the world, Canada is royally screwed.
it's funny how the "easiest trades in the world" sometimes turn out to be hard.
All trades are easy. That's why we're all stinking rich.
Can you say underwater?
Just saw this the other day; seems to be more than just Canada.
Canada Housing Market Is 63% Overvalued: Deutsche Bank"Canada, Australia and New Zealand are in the top ranks of the developed world’s most overpriced housing markets, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Homes in Canada are the most expensive, being 63 percent overvalued, the bank said in a survey ranking Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries’ markets. The measure reaches 56 percent in New Zealand, the second-most priciest, 53 percent in Belgium and 49 percent in Australia."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/canada-home-prices-are-63-too-h...
This too
Proof the property market has gone mad: It's now more expensive to live in Wollongong than NEW YORK - with Australian house prices now overvalued 49 per centhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909454/Proof-property-market-go...
I have been renting in this frozen wasteland for 5 years. I am an avid ZH reader. This feels sooooo good.
Bring it on.
I'm exactly where you are at and could not agree more!
Suncor layoffs were the pin in the balloon. Herein is the rub. Some disappearing link to Fort McMurray housing report off Zerohedge showed that only 5% of the houses listed in Fort McMurray actually sell!! That is a stopped market.
Suncor cut $1 billion in projects and another $600 million in plant operating expenses for 2015. They are probably in closed door meetings today typing up the lay off lists.
This people will be forced to sell at any offer and it will be shocking when it comes in at 35% LESS.
Bring it on bitchez!!
FWIW I live in Auckland, and wouldn't touch Auckland real estate with a 10 meter cattle-prod.
63% overvalued seems a conservative estimate. Some places I looked at in 2000-2001 are still about 400%-550% higher then back then.
We have free healthcare.
Our Canadian Health Care system is not 'free healthcare', but more to the point, it is centrally planned government heath care that is purportedly universal and supported via massive transfer payments to provincial directorates in health care that dole out the funding they receive from Federal coffers that are replenished via municipal, provincial, and federal taxation. Nothing is FREE except the air, and the motherfuckers are considering taxing that as well so get with the programme, eh.
NOTE: The CEO of the Ottawa Hospital makes 750k for 40 hrs per week and 1 month paid vacation. Canadians don't pay the CEO by picking currency off of secret Canadian money trees as far as I know.
Nope I'm paying for it. Nothing is ever free. And don't worry your free health care also won't last much longer.
Canada has been drinking the full on real estate kool-aid, that home prices can never go down. Reality is going to be bitch for them hozers. Bend over, here it comes!
Yup. If there wasn't so much of that white shit on the ground this time of year, I might consider buying some property at discounted rates, and dropping my US Tax Farm status....to join the Canadian Tax farm.
Oh what's the use?
There are limitless possibilities for you to find freedom in Canada if you are the type of man who intends to live frugally off the land. Do you hunt? fish? farm?
Sure, if snow shoeing and sking make you think "means of transportation" rather than dim-witted sports, than yes, the white shit is miserable. However, the white shit can also provide social insulation too from urban centers.
Fail
Hunting and farming land is just as fuct as anything else. Ask me. My parents just blew 6 million
you should speak of your future inheritance more lovingly, lest your parents donate it to the humane society when they leave this mortal coil.
its not worth half that in reality
6mill. Cheaper to squat on BLM Lands....in the Former United States of Amerika.
OK. I will ask you:
Are you too lazy to work on the farm?
Did your parents bite off more than they could chew?
<<Hunting and farming land is just as fuct as anything else. Ask me. My parents just blew 6 million>>
Do you really think you need to spend 6million whatevers just to start a hobby farm? It does not take much land to support yourself. You just need to work it.
6 million??? Really???? How many kids did your parents have????
As the Canadian dollar falls, Vancouver detached house prices will keep going up. These are not people that need mortgages, they need a place to burn some paper money.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Detached+house+prices+record+high+Lower+Mainland/10703768/story.html
Calgary house prices are bound to fall, alot.
I think that's coming to an end even in Vancouver, China downturn will end the wealth exodus to the Canadian escape.
Yeah, but my dad's got lots of beers and there's mental house work up town, eh.
When oil prices crashed in the early 80's, Houston home prices also tanked and didn't recover for over a decade. If I were a homeowner in the Canada oil patch, I would sell now.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase own all the condos and they can afford to lose investors shirts if they don't find enough Muppets to fill the crap shacks, methinks. Only Calgary will manifest problems due to the oil patch downgrade. Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver are always going to keep going gangbusters because these enclaves don't see a prospect of population decline in the long run. In brief, the Canadian Ponzi is much more regulated than the American Ponzi was.
You're SOO wrong...
I'm right here in the thick of it. Never mind fucking housing, our neighbour in the shop next to us (CNC machinist) is sitting on $8,000 in hi-grade steel for an order for one of the big oil companies. He bought the material but the job is now "on hold". And he's a small one man shop. I told him to ship the material to them so he can at least claim they owe him for the material. If he holds it he gets nothing since he can't return it to the supplier and the oil company won't pay for what they don't receive.
Multiply that scenario by thousands.
1984
literally
figuratively
I remember that cascade well.
Oil companies will cut loose all their small time contractors and contract employees. These folks cost nothing to cut. That is why employees as self contractors has become more of the norm. A real company employee is a terribly costly liability and sometimes expensive to even fire. British North Sea Oil firms lead the way with having made most workers in the North Sea private self employeed contractors, they simply work on a contract, and have zero employee benefits, rights or legal status. In fact, Britain is fast moving to make nearly all private wokers into self employeed contractors. Magie Thatcher's rule set this employee employeer contract system into motion all the way back to the late 80's. Building trades were the first to fire everyone and then let them come back as single individual private self employeed contractors.
Back in the 80's that was the defacto situation in Arizona. Oh, you were still an "employee" in a right-to-work-state, but if you didn't think like a self-employed contractor you were going to be disappointed and out of work an awful lot. That translates to crew poaching, zero company loyalty, zero benefits or retirement, revolving door at jobsites and generally unpleasant work environment for the most part. Never mind the boom/bust cycles of the construction business.
The union shops were a far sight better in this regard due to labor contracts BUT, Davis-Bacon and union pension funded projects were slim pickens AND Arizona did have a non-union apprenticeship program to that allowed open shops to compete for Davis-Bacon (AZ had a little Davis-Bacon for state work) projects.
I lost a sizable chunk at the end of the 80's when commercial construction collapsed, BUT, I had already started my business diversification out of construction, so I was able to pull up stakes and open in a new market. I still had some customers from the construction side of the business for another five years or so post-move before I shut that down completely.
Remus: The last person I knew that retired on a company pension after a 44 years at one company was my father. That was 1984 (for you G. Orwell fans).
Your story rings many bells with my own experiences around the same times. You must be an old fucker like me.
Well, I'm not dead yet.
Yep, I am waiting for the falling dominoes to reach my neck of the woods. I am not affiliated with nor have business with the oil/gas industry other than being a retail customer. But, being a small business owner, I can understand the pain he feels.
The real estate economist from Royal LaPage was out with some BS report suggesting Calgary will be up 2.5% this year.
Swallowed and reported by Canadian media.
In other news Amanda Lang swallowed Gord Nixon's dong for spiking stories for RBC.
Now these Fuckers want to implement a sales tax into Alberta to make up for the shortfall in government revenues.
I take it your an Albertan,
I have a question for you. How does the $30 billion Heritage Trust Fund disappear and the province go into deficit at the same time oil exports to the US go from half a million barrels a day to 3 million barrels a day.
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/08/oil-canada-exports-us/?__ls...
You keep electing the same party of neo-cons for 45 years in spite of numerous scandals and financial chicanery.
This is how ludicrous the TO housing market is:
http://fmlistings.tumblr.com
We don't even have mountains to restrict urban sprawl.
The thing people never factor into these housing doom predictions is simple human stupidity.
The question you should ask is not "will people keep buying houses and keep making payments on their houses?" The question you should ask is "CAN people keep buying houses and keep making payments on their houses?" Because as long as they CAN they WILL.
The American housing bubble ended only when the latter statement stopped being true. This is not the case in Canada (yet) for a variety of reasons.
Anyone who either thinks oil prices will stay low OR stocks will keep rising is a fool.
There's only so much magic tricks our master financial wizards can pull (is there?).
The entire system has come to be akin to a tangled mess of dynamite on top of an active volcano in an earthquare zone beside a nuclear power plant.
A dystopic nightmare in the full reality. Brave New World seemed like a more pleasant world to live.
Greatest Canadian contributions to the global stage
Gary Lee Weinrib, Aleksandar Živojinovi?, Neil Peart, and anything brewed by Unibrou.
Fuck borders:
http://vimeo.com/25240592
Yeah the oil patch re will crater, but it will spread.
Relating to another article about small business, if we could get them to come back, bring back small mfg, clothes makes and so on to diversify the economy other than fortune 500 companies, most will be able to survive. They may not have a McMansion, so who cares?
They may not be able to buy a whole new wardrobe every year either.
Deflation hurts, and it can be delayed but never prevented.
Why is it that humans cannot think and plan more than a few weeks out? How is it possible that time after time not one entity, govt. corp. looks out far enough and has contingency plans for a failure, depression, bad luck, loss of job or contract. Why do we always go to the max without thinking about consequences or safety nets.
Probably has not changed much since before the time of Caesar.....And never will.
Well the rothchilds and cohorts have been planning world domination for hundreds of years. So im not sure what yr talking about. Chaos brings about there order.
doc is that u?
kaboom!
Hopefully farm prices are next. S/W ontario farms (Oxford/Middlesex) are selling for over $20k/acre. We need 70-80% correction.
Parents just paid $70,000 per acre in BC. Spent the last 6 years talking them out of it. Oh fuckig well....
and of course i have more gold around my neck then they do. Thanks Fed you fucking cowards !
I wish I knew which search engine Durden uses to find charts of "economic metrics where correlation from 2009 to 2013 is far less than correlation from 2013 to 2014".
It must be due to:
Expansionary DisinflationThe new term that's appeared in the last week related to the effect of falling oil prices.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonhartley/2015/01/12/the-economic-impact-of...
I'll leave this here, just in case people are interested:
http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/01/much-need-earn-buy-house-across-canada/
Fort McMurry realestate stats. this is in the heart of the oil patch. Not looking good.
http://www.fmreb.com/sites/5098200ae7e1b41bc50042de/content_entry50bf956...
Well it's called Deflation for a reason with a capital D. The Germans are fighting it tooth and nail and burning up cash quicker than Heidi can pump the beers at Oktoberfest.
German banks finance 100% LTV - no questions asked.
Some German banks finance 120% LTV to buyers with very good credit and income verification
Game has to go on until it all goes up in smoke.
Real estate is the only game in town to park excess cash. The title or deed wiill surive the crash unlike most other so called "assets"
30 YR is well below 3% now and still falling. 5 and 10 yr Bunds are negative. Greece and others stand to default soon.
Rates can never go up... until AFTER the global reset.
Money from stocks is going into RE. First one out wins the prize.
Stupid F*#ks up here still think that Canada is doing better than every other country and managed to escape the 08 crash. I see everyone still loading up their credit cards, buying boats, new cars, quads, snow machines, and Mc Mansions. When I try to tell them that in the 2013 federal budget the government put in place a way for the banks to take their savings and pensions I just get a blank stare.
I live in a country of mindless sheep that think their government works in their best interest and doesn't lie.
Sad.
Bro!
Its worse than that, see here:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/redish.pdf
in 1996 the Bank of Canada reduced the required reserver ratio of Canadian banks to.......
Drum roll.......
ZERO.
That's right folks, Cabadian banks have a ZERO reserve requirement. That means if just 1% of depositors want their money back, in theory, you have a bank run because the banks are NOT required to hold any reserves in cash. EVERTHING gets loaned out.
I was completely shocked when I looked this up (from reading a ZH article of course) but there you have it.
My relatives are blissfully unaware of what any of this means to them.....but they will be one day, oh boy oh boy.
Cheers,
squid
From the link you posted.
the phase-out of reserve requirements
(1992–94)14 14. This change—the reduction of the required reserve ratio to zero—was less radical than it might appear. By the mid-1990s, the high demand for cur- rency to stock automated teller machines, which also, of course, could be used to satisfy reserve requirements, combined with the stagnant demand fordemand deposits, meant that the existing ratio was barely binding
http://mises.ca/posts/articles/canadas-banking-system-exposed/
There is a small community on the west coast of BC. That once had a pulpmill that employed over a thousand workers. The workers stole from the company and talked about how little they worked and how bad it was to work there. Although it was the best paying company in town with the best benefit package. Surely the company fell into hard times when the price of pulp fell. The stock price had plummetted. The company asked the employees to sign a contract to take a pay reduction of 10% . The employees did not like this idea and voted in large numbers against this. The company shut down shortly thereafter and all the employees were completely shocked. (Fools all of them).
What were they thinking?
Most of these workers were indebted to the max, and a lot of them had to find jobs in Alberta and commute to be able to keep their homes. This has of course propped up home prices in this town.
I am sure there are similar stories all across Canada, where as the Alberta oil boom has propped up house prices all over Canada.
Well let the games begin!
Similar story in my city.
The house next door to mine was purchased by the city and they turned it into a rental till they are ready to develop it. After lots of complaints against the renters the city knocked the house down using city workers. I watched these workers for 5 days! knocking down an 1100 sf 1 story building. These guys punch the clock at 7:30 am. then show up on site at 9:00 am, work for 1.5 hours then it`s first break and that`s a half hour, so now we`re at 11 am. they work for another hour and now it`s lunch, noon till 1:00. work another hour and it`s afternoon break, once again a half hour, now they work till 3:00 and they pack up and they are gone.
As a tax payer in this city I can`t wait till these lazy pampered union assholes find out that their pensions that are mostly invested in commercial real estate are gone, or at lease half of what they thought they`ll get.