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Russia Just Pulled Itself Out Of The Petrodollar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in November, before most grasped just how serious the collapse in crude was (and would become, as well as its massive implications), we wrote "How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed", because for the first time in almost two decades, energy-exporting countries would pull their "petrodollars" out of world markets in 2015. 

This empirical death of Petrodollar followed years of windfalls for oil exporters such as Russia, Angola, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Much of that money found its way into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, through so-called petrodollar recycling.

We added that in 2014 "the oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion. By comparison, they exported $60 billion in 2013 and $248 billion in 2012, according to the following graphic based on BNP Paribas calculations."

The problem was compounded by its own positive feedback loop: as the last few weeks vividly demonstrated, plunging oil would lead to a further liquidation in foreign  reserves for the oil exporters who rushed to preserve their currencies, leading to even greater drops in oil as the viable producers rushed to pump out as much crude out of the ground as possible in a scramble to put the weakest producers out of business, and to crush marginal production. Call it Game Theory gone mad and on steroids.

Ironically, when the price of crude started its self-reinforcing plunge, such a death would happen whether the petrodollar participants wanted it, or, as the case may be, were dragged into the abattoir kicking and screaming.

It is the latter that seems to have taken place with the one country that many though initially would do everything in its power to have an amicable departure from the Petrodollar and yet whose divorce from the USD has quickly become a very messy affair, with lots of screaming and the occasional artillery shell.

As Bloomberg reports Russia "may unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and convert some of its foreign-currency holdings into rubles, the latest government effort to prop up an economy veering into its worst slump since 2009."

These are dollars which Russia would have otherwise recycled into US denominated assets. Instead, Russia will purchase even more Rubles and use the proceeds for FX and economic stabilization purposes. 

"Together with the central bank, we are selling a part of our foreign-currency reserves,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in Moscow today. “We’ll get rubles and place them in deposits for banks, giving liquidity to the economy."

Call it less than amicable divorce, call it what you will: what it is, is Russia violently leaving the ranks of countries that exchange crude for US paper.

More:

Russia may convert as much as 500 billion rubles from one of the government’s two sovereign wealth funds to support the national currency, Siluanov said, calling the ruble “undervalued.” The Finance Ministry last month started selling foreign currency remaining on the Treasury’s accounts.

 

The entire 500 billion rubles or part of the amount will be converted in January-February through the central bank, according to Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev. The Bank of Russia will determine the timing and method of the operation.

 

The ruble, the world’s second-worst performing currency last year, weakened for a fourth day, losing 1.3 percent to 66.0775 against the dollar by 3:21 p.m. in Moscow. It trimmed a drop of as much as 2 percent after Siluanov’s comments. The ruble’s continued slump this year underscores the fragility of coordinated measures by Russia’s government and central bank that steered the ruble’s rebound from a record-low intraday level of 80.10 on Dec. 16. OAO Gazprom and four other state-controlled exporters were ordered last month to cut foreign-currency holdings by March 1 to levels no higher than they were on Oct. 1. The central bank sought to make it easier for banks to access dollars and euros while raising its key rate to 17 percent, the emergency level it introduced last month to arrest the ruble collapse.

 

Today’s announcement “looks ruble-supportive, as together with state-driven selling from exporters it would support FX supply on the market,” Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Groep NV in Moscow, said by e-mail. “Also, it will be helpful for banks, while there might be some negative effects related to extra money supply and risks of using some of the money on the FX market for short-term speculations.

Bloomberg's dready summary of the US economy is generally spot on, and is to be expected when any nation finally leaves, voluntarily or otherwise, the stranglehold of a global reserve currency. What Bloomberg failed to account for is what happens to the remainder of the Petrodollar world. Here is what we said last time:

Outside from the domestic economic impact within EMs due to the downward oil price shock, we believe that the implications for financial market liquidity via the reduced recycling of petrodollars should not be underestimated. Because energy exporters do not fully invest their export receipts and effectively ‘save’ a considerable portion of their income, these surplus funds find their way back into bank deposits (fuelling the loan market) as well as into financial markets and other assets. This capital has helped fund debt among importers, helping to boost overall growth as well as other financial markets liquidity conditions.

...

[T]his year, we expect that incremental liquidity typically provided by such recycled flows will be markedly reduced, estimating that direct and other capital outflows from energy exporters will have declined by USD253bn YoY. Of course, these economies also receive inward capital, so on a net basis, the additional capital provided externally is much lower. This year, we expect that net capital flows will be negative for EM, representing the first net inflow of capital (USD8bn) for the first time in eighteen years. This compares with USD60bn last year, which itself was down from USD248bn in 2012. At its peak, recycled EM petro dollars amounted to USD511bn back in 2006. The declines seen since 2006 not only reflect the changed global environment, but also the propensity of underlying exporters to begin investing the money domestically rather than save. The implications for financial markets liquidity - not to mention related downward pressure on US Treasury yields – is negative.

Considering the wildly violent moves we have seen so far in the market confirming just how little liquidity is left in the market, and of course, the absolutely collapse in Treasury yields, with the 30 Year just hitting a record low, this prediction has been borne out precisely as expected.

And now, we await to see which other country will follow Russia out of the Petrodollar next, and what impact that will have not only on the world's reserve currency, on US Treasury rates, and on the most financialized commodity as this chart demonstrates...

... but on what is most important to developed world central planners everywhere: asset prices levels, and specifically what happens when the sellers emerge into what is rapidly shaping up as the most illiquid market in history.

 

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Thu, 01/15/2015 - 03:13 | 5663765 Intolerant Bastard
Intolerant Bastard's picture

Glad you see the light. Got any clout with DC? :)

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:59 | 5660767 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

2015, bichezz!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:33 | 5661669 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture
"At first, this Earth, a stage so gloomed with woe You almost sicken at the shifting of the scenes. And yet be patient. Our Playwright may show In some fifth act what this Wild Drama means."
Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:41 | 5661984 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

I think you missed two letters - 'f' and 'u'.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:54 | 5660734 knicks3005
knicks3005's picture

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:55 | 5660744 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

I Am GOLD, Charlie...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:02 | 5660795 SilverDoctors
Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:32 | 5660957 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

AT the core of modern America, the dollar stands as it's most important and vaulable asset. As long as it can be printed to infinity and be accepted as real wealth worldwide, the USA is unstoppable. Lose that right of printing, and all us who live here will see a terrible collapse sweep over us. And "Nobody will have seen it coming"

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:36 | 5660978 pendragon
pendragon's picture

just don't hold your breath

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:55 | 5661101 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

Prove him wrong. What is going on in the world to support your views? What have you got, besides a 6 figure trolling job? Speaking of trolling, how many posts do you need before you get your medal of valor?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:17 | 5661274 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Six figure? Made me laughing with gusto!

Banderatard Ukie troll considers prosperous if earning six potato over the one week.

Funny about medals is this pendragon guy drops Ukie medals of valor in box daily and covers with kitty litter.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 00:14 | 5663475 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

just don't hold your breath

This site has been around for almost 6 years now, and these hyperinflation predictions have been called in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and now 2015.

Gold, silver, and oil are DOWN, and the USD is UP during Zero Hedge's existence.

+1 for not holding your breath ;)

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 05:23 | 5663862 IPURDOM75
IPURDOM75's picture

Six year is nothing in monetary life. It tooks ten years for the weimar republic to reach hyperinflation.

The momentum is here. It started in 1973 and is getting worse every year.

Every rational economist agree to say that the USD can keep going like this indefintly.

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 18:21 | 5662172 pendragon
pendragon's picture

ok hold your breath then

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:32 | 5661947 walktheline
walktheline's picture

No need to do that. I just converted all my investments into cash. It may be worth less in the shiotstorm that's bloweing out of Wall St and the City of London, but it will still be worth more than the bits of paper I used to own and that were a poor substitute for real toilet roll. And that gentleman and ladies is the issue: what the fuck is real any more outside of certain metals?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:51 | 5662047 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Tampons are real.  They help stop the bleeding when someone deposits certain metals in your body at high velocity.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:43 | 5661025 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Its strength, and its greatest weakness Jack.

This whole situation is looking more like it was engineered everyday.
An elephant trap set for the old bull ,that only knows one path.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 00:23 | 5663487 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I go back and forth on this. It sure does seem so absurd that it is part of a plan. It's also very consistent with the history of empires. The only difference is scale and coordination but that may just be a modern function 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:41 | 5661409 tired1
tired1's picture

I'm waiting for those untold trillions in cash to be exchanged for somthing else. Used to be that Russians would keep Dollars in cash as a hedge against the ruble. Hope those folks respond in a timely manner.

How practical is it to keep Ag or Au as a hedge in Russia?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:44 | 5661030 semperfi
semperfi's picture

his main source said "we are finally in the end game" last month - sure looks that way

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:10 | 5661223 lakecity55
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Ah, yes, "The Voice."

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:55 | 5661099 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

for some reason I go cross-eyed when I read jim willie

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:31 | 5661347 semperfi
semperfi's picture

try the red pill next time

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:11 | 5660835 TaperWorm
TaperWorm's picture

Paging Fonestar. Bitcoin 50% off in a month. $350 to $177. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:34 | 5660970 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Remember when he bought at 800?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:42 | 5661017 frenzic
frenzic's picture

By the way paging outrageous troll Exponere Mendaces

how about that parity

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-03/bitcoin-jumps-apple-folds-block...

There are many more where this one came from

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:54 | 5661091 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Would appear the dollar has abandoned the petro dollar actually.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 00:02 | 5663430 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Remember when he bought at 800?

I remember when metalbugs bought silver at $40 and gold at $1900.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 02:43 | 5663740 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

i was lucky bought gold when it was low and got rid of it when it was about 1800

waiting for the right time to buy again...

next time i will hang on to it tho

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:00 | 5661135 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

We called out the Bitcoin mania pretty soon in the EXPLOSION upward.  It went from $200 to $400 so fast there was no time for anyone to react, and thats when you had to act quick, but there were still very few reputable BTC exchanges, let alone places where you could find a goddamn price chart!  Then the spreads became ridiculous.  Pretty soon you were looking at paying $500 to $600 just to get your hands on one.

Well, some people predicted that MASSIVE server farms would be opened, but that was months away, so no need to panic.  Then like clockwork, (the server farms were predicted to open around Feb. '14) the price started going down, almost like someone didn't care how much they sold the BTC for (because they didn't buy the BTC, they bought mining rigs that needed to be paid off)...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

1 year chart!  Beautiful....  Where is Reggie, btw?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:18 | 5661597 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Getting Ultra jiggy with dat Ultracoin. Several ZHers fell for the BTC mania...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 00:04 | 5663438 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Several ZHers fell for the BTC mania...

lol. Only "several" ZHers fell for bitcoin.

Hundreds of ZHers fell for the gold and silver mania in 2011.

Are you guys still "backing up the truck" because "silver is on sale" today?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:11 | 5661514 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Exponere Mendaces? You mean the guy who said asteroid mining would sink gold?

There were some spectacular assclowns in the Fonestar Brigade.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:23 | 5661301 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

We Winkelvossed some folks.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:01 | 5661137 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

yrad and other commentors say "check mate", I guess I do not get that claim.

This is supportive of the ruble which is good but how long does this effect last?  From the article "will purchase even more Rubles and use the proceeds for FX and economic stabilization purposes", so this is a stabilization effort.

I looked for info in the article that Russia will require all sales of it's exports to be in rubles but could not find it.  For this to be more effective they need to require all trade to be in rubles or gold.  (Get zee gold Germay)

One number was around $85 billion with a possible $500  billion, which I assume is dollars to rubles.  What is $85 billion compared to the real printing the fed is doing?  A month and two?  I will help Russia, at least short term, but the damage to the dollar is questionable.  Even accepting dollars and then converting to ruble would seem to keep the dollar flow going.

Since this is called "checkmate" please give a timeframe for real effects to the west.  A few weeks?  A few months?  Or are we back to the "wait for it" bit of it being the big bad boogeyman who will get here in a few years.  At the current pace Russia does not have years to take effective action on both the physical military movement front or the economic front.  On it's own the dollar has at least 10 yrs and they probably have games to play to keep it going longer. 

The conversions are a smart move due to the undervalued ruble, assuming the ruble does not crash further.

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:21 | 5661299 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

IMO, it's just another chink in the armor.  Russia is just trying to position itself so that when we are on the very edge of the cliff, it just needs to hurry the process along a bit with a slight push.  The death of fiat is invertible, and would happen with or without Russia. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:43 | 5661435 SIOP
SIOP's picture

+1,  Well said Stumpy, I agree 100%.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:48 | 5661459 tired1
tired1's picture

I expect that Russai will continuue to honor ongoign contracts. The thing to watch for is negotiation of future contracts to be Ruble denominated. China is an example.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 01:26 | 5663642 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Almost 2/3rds of currency trading within Russia is USD and Euro, a 3rd only is in Rubles, This needs to be stopped as part of the overall strengthening process.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:19 | 5661286 tired1
tired1's picture

What's China going to do? I cant beleive that they werent in the loop on this.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 18:04 | 5662104 turbochef69
turbochef69's picture

China has tied it's energy future with Russia. They will give as much financial support to Russia as it needs.

BOTH countries are selling UST and accumulating REAL ASSETS (Real Estate, train lines, GOLD, etc.)

They want to avoid crashing the UST market, lest they take HUGE losses in approx. 1.6 TRILLION in UST Paper.

Of course this is being done OUTSIDE of the eye of MSM.

Just a matter of time.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:28 | 5661330 ChiangMai
ChiangMai's picture

 

re: "Check Mate…"

There's this, too, which I found a very enjoyable read:

Gazprom to use Turkish route to substitute Europe-bound supply of 63 bcm via Ukraine

MOSCOW, January 14. /TASS/. The Turkish Stream gas pipeline project is the sole route for Russia’s future supplies of 63 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe currently delivered via Ukraine, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said on Wednesday...

Gazprom has notified its European partners about its Turkish Stream gas pipe plans and now their task is to create the necessary gas transport infrastructure from the border of Turkey and Greece, the Gazprom head said.

“They have a maximum of several years for this. This is a very tight schedule. To comply with it, work for the construction of new trunk gas pipelines should be started in EU countries right now. Otherwise, these gas volumes may be redirected to other markets,” the Gazprom head said...

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 19:56 | 5662554 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Redirected to what other markets?  Replacing the EU by selling to Egypt?  Good luck with collecting on that sale.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 22:46 | 5663191 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Ching chang, wing wang, ding dang if it isn't China.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 18:07 | 5661975 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

And Mastercard has signed on to Russia's new alternative to SWIFT. So the dam begins to crack.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:47 | 5662037 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Now the neocons can blame the Russians when it all comes crashing down. The American public was raised in front of t.v. Since they were little tykes. The can 'get' cartoon villians.

Something more subtle and complicated than that ? . . . not so much.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 22:55 | 5663231 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

Russia just announced that it will shift Ukraine gas transit to Turkey.  If Europe wants it, they can build a pipeline to Turkey to get it.

As Victoria Nuland once said, "F*CK THE EU"

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:50 | 5660719 maskone909
maskone909's picture

go to your coin shop and buy Ag and Au stat.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:45 | 5661042 Fiscal.Enema
Fiscal.Enema's picture

and Ammo

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:15 | 5661873 noben
noben's picture

Doesn't that depend on what you're expecting?

Let's say you're expecting TSHTF. Then, after having some PM for insurance and some Arms and trained family members to protect them with, you will need all those things to survive a very rough economic and social transition phase (from Reserve currency to regular currency).

If/when that happens, you'll need to have your own mini General Store, to live off and barter with. Sometimes things like soap, TP and tampons, medicine, food or alcohol, etc are of greater value than just shiny coins. And if you're part of a local/regional network, then this becomes your Force Multiplier.

Perspective and a level head, my friend, perspective and a level head. IMHO.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 18:10 | 5662129 Gold Eyed Cat
Gold Eyed Cat's picture

No, it does not depend on what you are expecting.  It depends completely on how much wealth you have to protect. 

If you have thousands of dollars, sure, buy Spam and beans and toilet paper and guns.  But after that, if you have many thousands or even hundreds of thousands left you may want to spend your fiats on something that can be converted back into wealth.  Seriously, do you expect people to turn 10k into tampons to protect them from a dollar crash?

You wrote "perspective and a level head" and then promptly presumed to know this man's financials.  As if you are the first person in the world to suggest stocking up on water, food and ammo!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 22:48 | 5663195 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Regardless of his financials the water, food, and ammo are basics to start with.  Survival over wealth.  Once you have satisfied the survival requirement you start looking at wealth preservation, if you have any wealth left.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 00:36 | 5663508 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

One must consider that canned food and stored water have an expiration.

Wealth "preservation" is a pre-Bretton Woods mindset.

Constantly learn new skills and always look for new OPPORTUNITIES!

Hiding out in the woods in trailer with expired cans of food and a mosin nagant is losing strategy.  I know "preppers" personally and they are the most miserable people I know.  They are so afraid to do anything because they are afraid that crap will hit the fan any second, and they have been living this way since before the Y2K hoax.  They are no further ahead in life than they were in the 1990s.

They don't know what an opportunity even is.  They think that hiding silver coins in a coffee can and "defending" that can with an old rusty Mosin is a retirement plan.  They think I'm crazy for taking risks.  I think they are crazy for not living life and dreading doom every waking moment.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:51 | 5660722 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"And now, we await to see which other country will follow Russia out of the Petrodollar next, and what impact that will have not only on the world's reserve currency, on US Treasury rates"

A good thing.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:58 | 5660769 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Can you say China ?

This will be a co-ordinated move when it comes.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:13 | 5660790 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Pull out dammit! Pull out dammit!

Last words I really remember before we had to get married.

So I can sorta relate to the situation at hand.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:51 | 5660723 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

I Am GOLD, Charlie...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:53 | 5660725 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

And in related news:

Russia and China setting up Universal Credit Rating Group to rival West's 'Big Three' credit raters

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-china-setting-universal-credit-rating-gr...

 

http://rt.com/business/222175-russia-china-rating-agency/

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:54 | 5661494 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

That will work until they rate AAA some their own China Junk which then Mysteriously blows up to a Buck.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:53 | 5660726 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Good for them! Brilliant move on Russias part. If you don't own any physical precious metals, you're a complete IDIOT. Nuff said.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:58 | 5660754 Arius
Arius's picture

Martin Armstrong's computer model predicts a low of $850 before going higher, he agrees that will rise but not only until 2015.75, which is later in October.   I am not sure what to think, but he has been right in quite a few predictions

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:04 | 5660802 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah right, like his oil call from last summer? 

Armstrong has become a stooge on gold and silver now. Why? I don't know...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:21 | 5660881 new game
new game's picture

when we get that whooosh and markets get 87 'd, and shinny gets dragged to where ever it goes, then i move in. gold will have a great value for liquidations during the "GREAT WHOOOSH".  soon.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:20 | 5661609 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Where have you been? Gold is down from $1900 to $1200. It already corrected. No way it hits $850 with worldwide demand this strong.

Gold started up in late 2008 as the stock market was imploding. Bottomed in Oct @ $692 a good six months ahead of the stock bottom.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:22 | 5661295 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

In prison they told him it could be much worse.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:12 | 5660830 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

Ill tell you what you should think:

You should think about no longer reading anything more by Martin Armstrong

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:25 | 5660905 new game
new game's picture

i'd reather read the coments here than anything the gold peddlers have to say.

i'll think for myself... right or wrong i got nobody to blame. fuckem.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 00:52 | 5663556 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Chicken Little garbage gets really old.

Anticipating doom is futile.

It would be nice if there was an alternative financial blog that posted new opportunites from a "patriot" perspective.  Instead of being like the founding fathers and creating a new nation with new opportunities, today's patriots whine and moan and hide in the woods with cans of beans and a rusty mosin.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:26 | 5660917 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

He's been pissing in the wind for a loooooong time.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:14 | 5661875 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Martin Armstrong doesn't make predictions, his models do that for him. The models define support and resistance levels. When one support level gets broken in a downtrend, the model predicts that the next support level down will get hit, UNLESS the overhead resistance level gets taken out first.

His models are most useful in calling cycle tops and bottoms, not necessarily in specific numbers. He is generally negative on gold and silver, mainly because markets are driven by big money players, and the gold and silver markets simply aren't big enough to transact the staggering volume of dollars sloshing around out there at warp speed.

Armstrong is careful to point out that gold is not a hedge against inflation or deflation, but a hedge against government. He admits gold has a meaningful role to play, but the problem is that the people who command the big volumes of dollars are currently very comfortable with the federal government; and while that is the case, gold will not do particularly well.

When the government bond markets go over the cliff in October of next year, he thinks that all the bond money will go into the stock market, as it is large and liquid enough to absorb that money.

It will only be some years after that that money will then start to gravitate back into gold and silver.

He's been right about enough things that he is worth paying attention to, IMO.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 18:55 | 5662291 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

His commentary was much more interesting when he was writing from prison.   As for his vaunted models, no one can independently audit or back test them since they are 'black boxes'  Could gold go to 850? Possibly, but then this would mean a much, much lower stock market and a major loss of trust in any currency other than USDs. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:27 | 5661924 noben
noben's picture

Lemme see if I got this... They're using strong Dollars to buy weak Rubles. Isn't that what some people here have suggested or predicted?

If so, the real pain will start when the international (non-domestic) supply of Rubles is small, and they then decided to peg the Ruble to Oil/Gas, i.e. Carbon-Ruble. Priced in grams of Gold.

That would be epic, and might explain the mushroom cloud that the Economist has on its front page for 2015. Even if it's metaphor.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:36 | 5661958 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

What if you're too poor to buy precious metals? 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 22:51 | 5663213 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Get a job at a mortuary.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:52 | 5660727 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Gee but that "Ruble" looks rather valuable and heavy?!!!....

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:53 | 5660730 mtndds
mtndds's picture

Oh snap!!!  if its true then things are going to change fo sho!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:53 | 5660731 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Putin regime terorist crimes:

http://youtu.be/G7e0oyomwpw

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:59 | 5660764 vune
vune's picture

twat

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:16 | 5660842 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

twat

No. Syphilis recipient by proxy from a rabid Rabbi that bit the end of his dick off during the "ritual"!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 20:03 | 5662579 Augustus
Augustus's picture

vune,

did Putin give you time to get lubed?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:02 | 5660782 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Putin regime terorist crimes. Putin regime organized, armed, supported, supplied terorists who has invaded east of Ukraine attacked Ukranian people using GRAD, they fired at Ukranian checkpoint and in result one of rockets hit near a civilian bus.

After this terorist attack 12 civilians where dead

http://youtu.be/lpyXf9MKxp0

http://youtu.be/G7e0oyomwpw

Paid ruskie trolls has recieved theyr propoganda lies manuals to blame Ukranian people that they have fired GRAD rockets to them self to blame Putin terorists. It's not first time when Putin regime goons uses terorist tactics.

Also it's very popular for Putin regime terorists to use human shield:

http://youtu.be/SD28hMRv4HE

http://youtu.be/JomXgUQi738

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:06 | 5660807 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

Also it's very popular for Putin regime terorists to use human shield:

 

What about babies in incubators? is he tossing them out yet?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:13 | 5660822 freedom123
freedom123's picture

It's what even Putin regime controlled TV channel shows. How terorists fire from residential areas and then tells reported that they need to leave because there will be reply fire to these cordinates.

http://youtu.be/KeE0zeN4si8

This is how they are using civilians as human shields. As terorists like to do.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 19:01 | 5662321 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

IPutin also capturing young innocent ukrainian girls, sacrificing them to Satan and then drinking their blood.  Even worse, he is tearing the wings off spanish flies, feeding them to ukrainian male prisoners, and then forcing them to fuck syphilitic babushkas.

Check out this Ukie propaganda leadership video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TAG6XfqLu4

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 20:18 | 5662632 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

At the moment it is not clear what happened.

There seems to be a chance that it was self inflicted as right beside where the bus stopped was a line of mines. With the Grad attack a few hundred yards away one of the passengers on the bus may have panicked, run from the bus and activated a mine trip wire. The damage on the bus does not seem to be big enough or the right type to have been a shell or rocket.

This is another MH17 situation where an explanation is announced and shouted from the rooftops before any examination of the facts.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:18 | 5660861 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

What about babies in incubators? is he tossing them out yet?

Didn't know Hill & Knowlton had offices in Moscow?!!!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:08 | 5661195 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

We are increasing sanctions after discovering Vlad is eating kittens and puppies.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:28 | 5660934 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It's also very popular for the Cookie Monster Vicky Nuland regime to use neo-nazi agitators to conduct a coup on another country so that the US can install a puppet government.  We fomented the hostilities over there, but you don't care, because you're probably a .gov troll. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 22:54 | 5663230 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Looks like .gov has at least two voters.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:45 | 5661442 Ventnor
Ventnor's picture

Sveiks!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:06 | 5660797 freedom123
freedom123's picture
111 people control 19 percent of all household wealth in Russia 90 percent of entrepreneurs [in Russia] say they’ve experienced corruption

and other numbers about Russia / Putin regime:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/putins-w...

 

Ruble Falls Fourth Day on Oil as Russia Says Junk Rating Likely
Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:17 | 5660860 CuttingEdge
CuttingEdge's picture

Only 19%???

As opposed to Buffett and a few others who control 90% of all household wealth in the US?

Looks like those pesky Ruskies need more corruption if you ask me.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:22 | 5660895 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Open that article where Russia is compared to US and than write.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:31 | 5660954 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The Gini Index for the US is higher than it is for Russia.  That means that there is a larger gap between the rich and poor in the US than there are in Russia.  Go back to watching porn on the taxpayer dime. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:55 | 5661067 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Sorry, but that is not a COMPLETE COMPARISON between the US and Russia, dumbfuck.  2012 GINI for Russia = 42.  2012 GINI for USA = 47.7.  The higher the GINI index, the larger the gap is between the rich and the poor. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 22:58 | 5663244 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It is one thing to point out the Putin is not a good guy looking out for all of us.  Anyone who believes that should, at a minimum, move to Russia.

Tirelessy debating the matter to the point of pointlessness is unbecoming.  What do you have to gain?  All I can see in your arguments is that you are trying to make people believe that Putin is worse so our overlords should be excused for their rapes and murders.  Well, fuck you.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:23 | 5660904 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Adding to the gloom, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said there was a "pretty high" chance Russia's credit rating would be downgraded to junk and a deputy, Alexei Vedev, said he expected inflation to peak at 15-17 percent in March/April.

A steep fall in the rouble, low prices for its main oil export and Western sanctions over Moscow's role in the Ukraine crisis have hit Russia's economy hard, and Siluanov said overall expenditure in 2015 must increase by 5 percent, not the 11.7 percent previously budgeted.

"The state cannot have the kind of spending it used to have with economic growth ... (and) with the oil price at $100 per barrel," Siluanov told a conference of state officials, economists and business chiefs.

But with Russia being starved of investment, pressure is mounting for stronger government action to pull it out of crisis.

 

"We need a radical turn in economic policy," said German Gref, the head of Russia's biggest bank, Sberbank, demanding a "breakthrough" to improve the dire investment climate, stymied by state pressure on business and weak rule of law.

Russia's 2015 budget was based on an oil price of $100 a barrel but prices are now close to six-year lows at just above $46 a barrel.

 

"Regardless of having already curbed 2015 spending, we will ask parliament to cut by 10 percent all expenditure apart from defense spending," Siluanov added.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/us-russia-crisis-idUSKBN0KN0Q6...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:34 | 5660962 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Downgraded by the same credit rating agencies that had all of those MBSs rated AAA and the like back in 2006? 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:38 | 5660981 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

"Credit Rating"? And what value does a western credit agency have in it's rating? Most show Ukraine and Russia closely rated. One is rich with FX, gold and dollars from oil. The other is bankrupt beggar demanding free billions from the IMF, EU and USA. Besides, new credit ratings agencies are forming now, centered around the EuroAsian economic union.

A western credit agency has about as much credibility as the latest press release from Nazi Occupied Kiev.

Stop changing accounts, we all know who you are. Just be honest about it.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:46 | 5661033 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Be honest about it?  The dude is fucking rabid "USA GOOD!  RUSSIA BAD!"  This is unthinking, blind stupid rabid patriotism without looking to see if it is warranted.  He will attack any truth that doesn't conform to his preconceived (and wrong) notions about how the world works.  Putin is a statist, so fuck him, but that doesn't mean that we should be playing with fire over there.  Our dumbasses in charge might very well stumble into WWIII over this shit, and we'll get to watch as millions of sheep get their faces melted off when they aren't even trying to figure out what for.  He can take his blind, stupid rabid patriotism and blow it out his ass.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:02 | 5661148 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

This is unthinking, blind stupid rabid patriotism without looking to see if it is warranted.

No. Its just paid trolling. Pure and simple. So he is probably in the air force or navy. Works at langley and only has about 1000 approved words and links he can post. pretty simple. he is just a mindless slave, a brainwashed stooge, incapable of critical thought and forbidden to look at any situation in any way that he is not paid to do so.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:08 | 5661183 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

You'd have to be a blind, stupid rabid patriot to take that job. 

 

Sorry, but propaganda rubs me the wrong way. 

 

To the .gov fuckers reading this:  You want thinking people to feel a bit patriotic?  Start acting in accordance with the constitution and start acting with integrity.  Give people a real, honest reason to like this country, don't tell them that if they don't they're not part of the cool kids club, quit fucking lying to us and quit protecting criminal oligarchs.  At the very least, it would quiet some of us down to a low rumble. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:31 | 5661355 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

No. Its just paid trolling. Pure and simple. So he is probably in the air force or navy.

You give far too much credit. This viedoklis_lv guy, I mean freedom123, is Latvian potato troll. Kiev Yatzi junta pays him one potato daily to post his drivel lies.

At night he works as a honey dipper in the outskirts of Riga.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:35 | 5661364 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I saw a honey dipper driving on S-bound I-25 once that had the words "We haul milk on the weekends!" painted on it.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:34 | 5661371 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

Well, Troller123 has only been here 10 weeks. After 90 days she's eligible for a 'two potato bonus'. That's quite a carrot for those lackies.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 19:13 | 5662371 Augustus
Augustus's picture

El Vaquero wishes to suck Putin's nipples when he sees him shirtless on that white horse.

Riding double, wearing chaps and in front of Putin, is El Vaquero nightly dream.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 20:04 | 5662582 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Fuck you and fuck Putin, pencil dick.  I don't like propaganda, fuckface up there was spewing propaganda.  It has a way of leading to war.  

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:47 | 5661049 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Please remove the phone pole Bath House has shoved up your ass before knocking Vlad.

"Hey, I'm here for my Spiderman Towel."
"You are Gay, Bath House. To the Gulag for you!"
"Can I take my towel?"

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:43 | 5661959 noben
noben's picture

freedom 123: "Putin regime terorist crimes..."

I'm not going to get into a big debate with someone so biased, but I will make a stoic observation:

ALL strong leaders throughout history have had to "break lots of eggs" to make a difference. I can think of no kingdom or empire where this was not the case -- including and especially the American Empire, which is responsible for the death and suffering of millions over the globe.

Whatever flaws, oppression or 'crimes' that the Russian regime commits, seem to be limited to its OWN borders. I am not aware of people getting flogged or beheaded for what appear minor offenses -- unlike in Saudi Arabia. And I don't see you voicing your outrage or even concern over them either.

You seem to lack knowledge of history, facts, perspective and objectivity. But you have an abundance of politically-correct "patriotism", it seems.

Your mantra seems to be: "Our shit and that of our allies and puppet regimes smells like roses, but the shit of our adversaries is just vile and evil".

If you look up the word Hypocrite in the dictionary, you just might find a picture of yourself in it.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 02:32 | 5663724 freedom123
freedom123's picture

"You seem to lack knowledge of history, facts, perspective and objectivity"

I know Russian language. I have traveled to Russia. I have colleagues are Russians. Neibourhood where I live – majority is Russians.  I am from Baltic states so I have lived under Russia/USSR rule. I have talked to those relatives who starting occupation where send to Russia prison camps and I know what they experienced there, I know about those relatives who didn’t survived Siberia. I know how Russians stole everything from us and we regain only after USSR collapsed. I know how they think, act and what is Putin regime. I know very well what happened during USSR time and what happened in 90’s and how Putin rise to power and created it’s regime. I know how it invaded Georgia and Ukraine – and I know how Putin regime propaganda works. I know it all because I have lived it all. And now you boy telling me I don’t know Russia? What perspective and objectivity you have if only source for you is Russia propoganda channel? Huh? You don't know nothing. You know what they want you to know. You don't have the expierience and knowledge from the ground.

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:54 | 5660738 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Looks like Putin doesn't think this is a short term price thing.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:53 | 5660740 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Will the Eurasian union follow ?

That should be an interesting development.

If Putin is now peddling his Eurasian common market to EU the logic would imply what Russia does in the oil business the other surrogates follow alongside...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:44 | 5661038 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Yooropeans, we have oil, gold, timber, vodka,all at bargain prices. Dump the U$D and Join our EEU! We are giving gold coins with each account you open in our economic union! Why be slaves to the zionists when you can have gold and also Spiderman Towels?"

"Damn, Reggie, I gotta do something. I want a Spiderman towel."
"Well, just Kill the Dollar like you told Kyle. I want one, too!"

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:54 | 5660746 Killtruck
Killtruck's picture

Good thing I put all of my savings into copper*, steel** and fiat***!

*important metals
**guns
***toilet paper

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:40 | 5661000 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I'm stocking up on Kotex along with TP.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:43 | 5661433 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

BIC lighters for the win. Everybody needs instant fire.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:56 | 5661511 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

We think alike. I have 1 ammo box full of bic clics.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:35 | 5661678 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

If it comes to that, you'll eventually have to learn other ways to make fire.  Bow drills, pump drills, fire plows, etc...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:54 | 5660747 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Dohzhivodnya, Amerika......

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:17 | 5660853 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Is that like -  Adios, MF...?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:46 | 5661058 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Da.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:54 | 5660748 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

some USD comming home

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:57 | 5660756 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

again... Russian central bank on record that US$60 bbl oil would be the trigger for intervention... well, you can imagine what they're willing to do with it sitting at forty and change, with the strong possibility of it going lower...

<bugs bunny>of course, you know, this means war...</bugs bunny>

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:39 | 5660988 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Of course you know, this means War."

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:10 | 5661207 mt paul
mt paul's picture

cheap  oil

bigger wars..

 

cheaper to fuel the machines

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:57 | 5660760 AdmTirpitz
AdmTirpitz's picture

Its good to see some one still uses the rythm method

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:57 | 5660763 Abapom
Abapom's picture

perpetual meme that Russia should spend all they have to prop ruble so that Sorosh can make profit...

what is this Bloomberg smoking?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:01 | 5660788 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Putin will buying gold not other fiat with those USD.

Why buy a dervative of a dollar, with dollars ?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:48 | 5662041 noben
noben's picture

Ooh, aah! Nice left hook.

And if the CBR is not increasing the money supply, the "Repatriation of Rubles" will make them more scarce and precious WHEN they flip the switch, i.e. it becomes a Petro-Ruble (right hook) and... price it in grams of Gold (uppercut).

Left hook, right hook, upper cut. Obummer. Lights out for the count.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:58 | 5660765 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

If this is true, would expect some false flags in ukraine very soon.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:18 | 5660871 Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

See Freedom123/Viedoklit's posts above.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:36 | 5661387 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

See Freedom123/Viedoklit's posts above.

His comments always good for laugh.

Sometimes good for potato.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:59 | 5660773 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

OT, but relative. Anyone see the Frontline propaganda last night on Puty?

It was as though they were speaking of fearless leaders in USSA. 

Couldn't help but notice the double headed eagle. 

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:22 | 5660892 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

Frontline. From the Corporation of Propaganda Broadcasting

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 21:45 | 5662947 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Frontline has great narration and plenty of money for good research

production crew. Propaganda, yes, but it is tolerable IMO.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:00 | 5660774 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

at this points, what can $88bn do to impact...well, anything.  and, yes, it is more sad that $88bn is meaningless in today's bubble everyting economy.  Fed can do more than that monthly!

it's all too sad to discuss.   

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:21 | 5660886 chubbar
chubbar's picture

My guess is if Putin went into the gold market with 88 billion and stood for delivery, it would change everything overnight.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 15:03 | 5661150 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Too ham fisted.  It would get blocked.  Sanctions, remember?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:00 | 5660775 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The worst isn't when the governments and central banks running said governments sell their dollars for other currencies, but when they are by passing the dollar via trade.  The moar that continues the moar the petrodollar system will crumble into the ruins of history.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:15 | 5660845 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Precisely SG.   It isn't a matter of throwing a fit, it is simply a matter of choice.    'Nothing personal, just business', stated otherwise...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:01 | 5660776 wmbz
wmbz's picture

The solution is so simple, we (the USSA) need to increase sanctions against the USSR. After that we can introduce price controls. Actions like that always work out very well.

There is a shit storm a comin!

FUBAR!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:01 | 5660783 redman38
redman38's picture

excellent work zero hedge

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:03 | 5660787 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

what took them so long? and why announce it ahead of time so the dickheads can front run you? jebus christ the world is run by retards!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:14 | 5660846 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

The report said they "may" use foreign currency reserves.  Perhaps the plan is to anounce ahead of time so that the dickheads DO front run them.  Then maybe they can keep the powder dry while the dickheads do the work.  It's called jawboning and central banks have gotten pretty good at it.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:23 | 5660906 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

yeah, it's just jawboning

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:16 | 5660852 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Theater?

By consent or conquest. NWO

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:39 | 5661006 ebear
ebear's picture

Maybe that's the point?  Get the speculators out in front, then pull the rug?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:03 | 5660796 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The term Petrodollar is nonsense.  A USD is a USD.  Some are used to buy and trade petroleum.  Some are used to buy and trade pistacheos or gold.

Russia wisely had reserves in USD.  Now the country is selling some of those reserves to try to support conversion rate of rubles.  No one will hold rubles for any long period of time.  Cabbages, turnips, and rubles rot at a very fast rate.  Investors caught holding rubles will suffer from Putin kleptocracy.  Having the wealth fund buy rubles is one of the last desperate steps to prevent economic implosion from oil price decline.  Russia may have given only 30 rubles for a USD when creating the reserve.  Now that USD will exchange for 60 rubles, and those depreciated rubles will be handed out to the population for social programs.  All to keep Putin in power a bit longer.

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