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US Retail Sales Drop Most Since June 2012 (And Don't Blame Gas Prices)
But but but... US retail advanced sales dropped a stunning 0.9% MoM (massively missing expectations of a 0.1% drop). The last time we saw a bigger monthly drop was June 2012. Want to blame lower gas prices - think again... Retail Sales ex Autos and Gas also fell 0.3% (missing an exuberantly hopeful expectation of +0.5% MoM) and the all-important 'Control Group' saw sales fall 0.4% (missing expectations of a 0.4% surge). Boom goes the narrative.
Advance Retail Sales massively missed For Dec.
Ironically, the great gas price plunge was the worst thing to happen to the US economy since the Polar Vortex:
The breakdown: a sales decline in 9 out of 13 major categories.
as The Control Group shows - this is not gas price related.
Charts: Bloomberg
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I don't understand...
I did my part and bought thousands of rounds of 5.56mm and 9mm ammo....
I think it rained in Seattle a couple of days....
I stopped buying useless shit I don't need and aggressively pay down debt. I am not sure if I am doing my part or being an extremist.
Perhaps this explains yesterday's reversal.
The argument is bogus.
The drop would have been far greater without the drop in gasoline prices.
Polar Vortex... No wait, that was last year...
Vaccine resistent Flu is the New Polar Vortex this year. That is until we get into Spring Disaster Weather Season. Followed by Summer Disaster Weather Season. Followed by Fall Hurricane Weather Season. Followed by....
There has been great reluctance to price gasoline at anywhere near its market value over the last 40 years.
It has been a seemingly endless honey pot for the "Energy" industry and the US government.
This summer it was clear that the "main street" economy was going to collapse completely. A point of no return.
Their hand was forced. Down go gasoline prices.
This is not temporary.
You guys are nuts. All that money is simply "sitting on the sidelines."
....Gafaw...gafaw...gafaw.....
I love it when a flan comes together. Bonds and gold, bonds and gold, bonds and gold.....
The safe haven Any Ports in the Storm will do Nicely, Thank You Very Much
The Safest of Money (Gold) the Safest of Currencies for financial assets (US Poopbacks) and the Safest of Long Dated Income in a Deflationary Environment (T-Bonds).
But then again, I'd best be nimble because it's all temporary. Like the sophist rubbish that there's anything other than a deflationary collapse that we're in.
Thank you, Saudis, thank you Obie, thank you ECB, thank you Vlad. What else was expected, surrounded by Fuckups? Seriously?
Moar Retail Drop bitchez
Is it still the best time ever to buy a house then?
You can get rich quiche when a flan comes together..
Bon mot, Sir. Bon mot.
You're clearly a terrorist.
EXTREMIST!
If you are doing your part, then you will now be under the scrutiny of the NSA.
If you are an extremist, then the NSA has a job for you.
Now if they added the DOW and S&P to the Retail Price list, everything would be fine and no need for revisions either
Don't give them any ideas....
If you are neither, you will be sent to camp.
If you are under NSA scrutiny, a special camp is set aside for you.............
Now the fun begins. Retailers start dropping prices and people hold of buying and wait for prices to drop even more. DEFLATION coming to your town soon.
Is it time to drop money from helicopters instead of just giving money to the banks?
No they missed that window.
Shush your mouth! That kind of thing is reserved for those in control. Besides, helicopter money would have some actual velocity. And we can't have that. God knows what happens when you ignite a giant pile of money with velocity. Zimbabwe comes to mind. Kinda like what's about to happen to us here in the states as all the world's FRNs are formally rejected as reserve currency and the only morons that will take them live in the US. Commonly referred to as "re-importing inflation". My popcorn is burning. BRB.
The gas windfall to consumers was just designed as a shell game to provide the illusion of more disposable income to goose the Holiday Season Sales. It was a gigantic fail. Now all this monthly gas windfall, and much more, is being eaten up by rising 0zer0care costs. Just wait till tax season, and the shocked responses of the sheeple when they either don't get a tax refund because of their 0zer0care penalty, or watch their weekly take home pay continue to erode as 0zer0care keeps taking more and more. 0zer0care, Govt Spending and Food is really the only thing driving any type of inflation against the massive deflation occuring everywhere else.
Yup you got it no debt and we buy little of anything and when we do it comes from the thrift store or ebay or even for free out of the dumpster.
dont forget about xmas. people were busy putting up lights, so they didnt have time to go shopping or visit amazon.
It was a humid time period so people were afraid to go outside or use their computers to buy from Amazon.
</s>
And here's the MSM headline...
U.S. Holiday Sales Rose 4%, Just Shy of Prediction, NRF Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/u-s-holiday-sales-rose-4-just-s...
So, the "sneak gas sales into retail sales figures to artificially boost the RS number" backfired on them....this time.
It is the weather folks
post Christmas clearance SALES great for us Orthodox Christians...:-)
does buying 75-90% off retail price count?
Painflation, bitchez!
BTFD
This was due to the lower gas prices. The cheaper gas got everyone on the road heading to the mall but the traffic jams prevented people from reaching the mall.
You folks really need to think out of the box for a change.
I'm shocked! I tell you Shocked!
So S&P 500 +50 pts today?
Retail sales are linked to inflation. We have deflation, so retail sales drop.
Alternatively ObummerCare killed Middle American disposable income stone dead.
Just wait till the fines hit their tax refunds, oh boy.
Refund? Obviously you don't claim 9 dependents.
But render unto Caesar: on late payments you will pay an interest rate which is determined quarterly and is the federal short-term rate plus 3 percent. Interest compounds daily.
The government will have to start encouraging telecommuting from jail.
Paging Mr Bullard. Your calming words are required urgently
fuck BullTard, BREAK OUT THE YELLENATOR!
RELEASE THE KRAKEN!
Yellen's severed head vs. the Kraken. Clash of the Titans.
Cue the weather-related excuses...
http://olduvai.ca
The Federal Reserve's solution will be to print more.
Onward to QE4.
Welcome to Japan!
It's good to see some numbers that reflect where I live.
MOAR buybacks coming?
IN A WORD - YES
the timing might be a bit tricky unless you are dimon or blankfein tho...
Futures tanking: FTSE down 2.2%, DJIA off 100 points in 5' to minus 250: some other news?
Steve LIESman "This just doesn't make sense, the fundamentals are strong"
Either way that made me laugh I am not sure whether he actually said that or not. It sounds like the kind of stupidity he'd say but I can't believe he'd actually be that retarded.
The Black Friday weekend sales being down some 11% was the harbinger.
The new war on Christmas?
Retailers train customers to expect cheap deals leading up to the holiday.
Retailers try to improve the bottom line by reducing promotional pricing.
Deals were not as good or as plentiful this year. I'm a member of a moms' board and have followed the deals thread over 5 years. For many, if not most, no great deal = no purchase unless it is a number one top of the list must have from Santa for a child.
Now mid January deals/price cuts are starting to show up. So either just buy less for the holiday? Or maybe move the gift exchange to January. There have been a few families around that do that for awhile. This year could start it as a trend. As long as we don't all choose the same day...Secret Santa Day.
As a group, we remaining middle class mom's aren't blinking. Because we can't afford to. Sell at a great price, or keep it. Maybe we will buy it on clearance and stash it away for next year.
i think you are correct on the discoutning--that does cause deflation although since its discounting and incentives it might not show up as such except in top line of retialers--which if their costs were not discoutned means profits drop like rock--gaap profits that is.
I hope this starts a trend
Are you still allowed to say "Christmas" here?
The War On Holiday.
You say that "C" word one more time and you'll be banned form the internet for 10 days.
"Steve LIESman"
His last name says it all. And CNBC wonders why their ratings are in the toilet.
Can't wait to the CNBC spin on this one.
i love the horrified looks on their stupid faces when stocks are -3%.
but this deline is monetly centered on retailes and homebuilders. Just consumer oriented (and consumer os only what, 70% of economy--thats not completely true--the government with 1.2 tril deficits via debt increase is 30% of economy.
but debt does not matter , not to Cheny and Krugman.
Checkmate..!!
Your move, Mr. Yellen.
I need another coffee, but can't get up because I've got a bear market boner.
The MBAA mortgage bankers index surged with the purchase index rising by 23% Prices are still at record highs in most areas Of the northeast and rents are now over $2,000 in most of eastern Massachusetts for a tiny one bedroom apartment. In the nyc metro area rents have effectively doubled in five years in the other four boros outside Manhattan
The RE market will be the last thing to go. It's already turning pretty bad in the O&G states with sales stagnant or dropping more then expected for this time of year.
Deflation has been here for quite some time - masked by years of douche bag central bank interference and corrupted government data reporting.
Game over yellen. Hope all your douche bag friends made lots.
Thanks for being a total fuck up.
It was actually Bernanke's plan. He left because he didn't want to be around when it blew up.
Sales are down because the sunrise is now occurring in the east.
Bring in more immigrants, that will fix it. Also give them free healthcare and a right to vote, like we do in Canada, it works for us to the tune of -36 billion a year. And you guys think you're in a welfare state.
I think you forgot the
automatic pre-approved car & home loan qualifications
and driver's license
And Obamaphone.
I see everyone got drunk though...
Eating and drinking +0.08%
Yes restaurants and bars are packed. All these 20 something's who just Got to legal age to drink can now go out every night to these trendy lounges in These nouveau riche towns like Cambridge MA Mommy and daddy are usually paying the rent and credit cards. These kids get full parental support well into their 30s. It is socially acceptable now according to cnn and the ny times
You hit the nail right on the head. The participation rate is deplorable so mommy and daddy that could buy X in the past are actually spending X-Y with Y being the amount going to the "young" adults. But in the past mommy and daddy would spend their X and their "young" adults would be employed and have their own X to spend.
I always wonder how these 20 something's many who look like they are in their mid teens mostly the males and mostly caused by psyc medications can all afford to pay rent fm over $2000 for a studio apartment in queens or Long Island forget Brooklyn prices are as high as Manhattan plus the park slope mommy thing with the 5000 strollers is sickening
Poor product and horrendous customer service is the reason Some stores didn't do well. I don't care if the workers are Making a dollar more than min wage they accepted the job and love to play the race card
As someone who lives in the Liberal decrepit state of Mass, you speak the truth, as I see it with my own eyes.
The state is not at liberal as you think. Mostly its young transplants who went to school here and now living in Brookline or Newton on daddy's money.
Product quality is crap, with clothing being the worst as far as I can tell.
IME customer service has been overall better since the start of the Great Recession. Yes, it is bad that young people aren't getting work experience, but OTOH having an adult cashiers has made my shopping experience better.
Clothing has decreased in quality. Cotton and flannel in particular are wearing through faster than they used to.
5 years ago I could at least go to the mens department and find a tee shirt that you can't see your fingernails through. Now mens clothing is nearly as bad.
I don't want to dress like a guy, but I also don't really want to wear 2-3 shirts to avoid displaying my bra to the general public.
.
40 years ago you could actually get good quality clothes. You could get real linen and wool that wasn't adulterated with crap. I have a braided rug made of mens suiting that still looks new after more than 40 years, and I had a heavy felted wool wrap around jumper that I wore to work for 10 years. It was wonderfully warm for Minnesota winters, and it still looked like new when I gave it to the Goodwill because it didn't fit anymore. You could get real silk, including brocade. I had a silk brocade cocktail dress that I bought at Dayton's (now Macys) on a secretary's salary. Cotton didn't stink (literally), and the fibers weren't short and thin and frayed. It was polished, beautiful and thick. I'm not sure that today they even bother to mercerize it. Even working class people could have decent clothing, though not as many clothes perhaps. At that time we made our own fabric from mills that were here in the USA. Those mills were disassembled and shipped to China. The quality of the fabric started to deteriorate almost at once, and the prints became garish and ugly in unfortunate color combinations. I've noticed that the design of the clothes offered for sale and the embelishment has taken a decided turn for the worse (you can't even find soutach anymore). Now, everything is tacky from the fabric to the workmanship and falls apart almost at once. You can't even get polyester, which draped well, was durable and was easy to maintain. Now, they use spandex instead of an oil-based material and it certainly doesn't have the same properties as polyester. I do a lot of hand sewing, and I've noticed over the years that even cotton sewing thread is flimsy. It has no tensile strength to speak of, and when you look closely at a strand it looks fuzzy. Its not well twisted or the fibers are too short to take a decent twist. It seems to be rotting while it is still on the spool. I use silk thread now. Its more expensive and more difficult to work with, but more durable and fine, though it has been a few years since I bought any and it may not be available anymore.
This is just one symptom. I think everything in this country has gone the same way.
I avoid the malls because they have taken on a whole new and ominous direction. I don't like all the kiosks plugged into what was once wide pathways to walk, manned by aggressive salespeople, jumping out in front of me to ask me if they can smear stuff on the back of my hand. I feel harassed. It's a carnival atmosphere. Things are no longer just displayed for sale, they're pushed on you. They don't see a person, they see a wallet. Walking from one end of a mall to the other is like running the gauntlet.
The mall aisles are like walking through a small town in the ME with various accented people harassing you all the time. Reminds me of some small towns in Egypt where they pull at you while they smile saying, "come in we like American friends here."
Ok, so that's it for the international flavor of the mall, right? The as you walk out to your car you have to take care for the other muklticultural elements in our society, especially if you're carrying [or wearing] a pair of Air Jordans.
Diversity at its best?!
Last Thurs after the 300 point Dow rally I was driving and some jackoff on the radio claimed it was because retail sales were up. I thought I didn't hear any retail numbers that day so when I got home I googled.
The few companies that reported were for the most part shit. Macy's and JCP announce store closings and lay-off's. Turns out that radio report was just more financial propaganda like the last 6 years.
Retail sales are also related to what the people have to spend. Not much after the earth has been scavenged every way possible for anything that resembles collateral. Basically all business in the US now merely function as gateways for collateral, whether it be sales or your savings, to be converted into derivatives for the banking elite. What could possibly go wrong.
Over half my clothes come from Sallie's Alley. I drive a 1992 Toyota Corolla and eat rice and drink filtered water.
They ain't going to get any money from me. I quit.
What screws them up the most is when you pay off all debt, and stop borrowing money. End of line for banks. Instead of investing in 401K, IRA or the market, which is a toilet for your money, just keep buying metal. They can't control your money anymore when you control your money. If you have a business, let your customers know you will accept silver coins as payment at current market prices. You can make up the small change using cash, but minimize it. You book the sale as your company owning an asset, so it's legal, but the transaction bypasses the banks and market. Screw them. Might as well, because they're screwing you.
<< eat rice and drink filtered water >>
You sound awfully close to being a traitor.
The word is "extremist."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-13/obama-declares-war-extremism-%E...
Don't overdo the rice - it contains arsenic. Really, google it. Both due to natural arsenic in the ground, and agricultural pollution. No matter where it is grown commercially.
The news will all be rosy, regardless of these numbers, until there are burning cars in the streets. I guarantee you I could go to any stock message board and find a dozen drones explaining how great this news is. Because.
EBT sales are up!
If you print gargantuan amounts of money, dispense it to your friends so they and their businesses don't go tits up while the other 99% deals with the decrease in buying power of their fiat on a daily basis, it's not deflation. It's a QE based recovery. Got it!
Pay with cash and see the cashier get an attitude or Not know how to count money or give change. When they said debit or credit. I ask is cash no longer accepted Here ?
Dp
Try using two gift cards. It took me 5 minutes last night before the cashier couod figure how to accept the remaing balance on one and then use the other card to pay off the transaction.
It's funny when you think of it, but cash to me is actually a credit certificate issued by the bank, but with nothing to back it. Just like the plastic cards everyone uses.
Cash?? You're obviously a terrorist.
I think you mean extremist.
"Ironically, the great gas price plunge was the worst thing to happen to the US economy since the Polar Vortex" I think the gas price plunge is part of the effect and not the cause. How could ZH confuse cause and effect? I read this site to help me keep those things in the correct order.
Yep. My nearly 70 year old mom even gets this. Was telling her maybe she should sell her house if she is going to (Texas) since low oil prices are expected to deal a lot of pain there. She says right back "it was too expensive so people stopped using it". She drives her old car as little as possible...groceries, church, doctor, etc.
Yes! Thank your Mom for me.
"It was too expensive so people stopped using it"
You can not possibly escape price elasticity forever. That is the real market place.
Electric cars will continue to be made and prices will fall slowly. Wind and solar will grow slowly and the prices of the gear will fall slowly.
GM is bringing out an electric called "Bolt" (always wondered what would happen if you served anti-depressants and Jack Daniel to a focus group?) to complement the "Volt"
You can't make this shit up
Sure it's not Dolt?
Baphomet's tits!
But... but... the green shoots...
Do they not understand. The consumer need more money, not the banks.
The keep giving money to the banks but want to raise the gas tax to pay for supposed road fixes. Why wouldn't they just QE the road fixes if it is the panacea?
They'll figure it out eventually. But by the time they do, the damage will have been done. They'll figure some way to get money directly into consumer hands, and those consumers will promptly hoard it, or pay down debt.
The days of consumption are over. People will do what they've been told they must do...tighten their belts. Unfortunately those belts are also wrapped around the waists of the producers, which they apparently didn't realize. Oh well, I guess you can't always get it right.
Yesterday I quoted 'Never sell a quiet market after a rise', and said 'But after a 425 point, 2.4% range, outside day reversal, run like hell', so to you who downvoted me, rotsa ruck.
UK households also feeling bullish, mortgage applications down 12.4%mm, or 6.6%yy, housing sales frozen. Anecdotal but I'm getting lots of emails from estate agents telling me "landlord has dropped rent on property x", something I've not seen for years.
How many banks have skin in the about to crash £1.3tn/US$1.97tn lending secured on dwellings market (BoE, Table A5.02)?
Obamacare took out the middleclass.....and it will more this year as prices go up for insurance.....for the people that have to pay for it....add in your subprime carloan and student loans.....you have nothing to spend if you pay those....but you will see many people start to not paying them...defaults will skyrocket...and everyone is waiting for the Apple watch..that is what is going to change the world this year...a fricken watch...lol...we are screwed..
well, i blame bush. at least thats what obama and the times said.
we need yellen to walk out and shoot a cucumber out her snatch, yeah that will fix it
Her porn name was "bubbles".
maybe ppl are realizing buying crap all the time isn't making them happy. I went through a phase where I had to have it all. ( see good deal on Craigslist, I want it!) only to move and then have 80% in storage and not missing most of it. Now comes the part where Ive got to sort it into the keep, sell or give away piles. I have learned a lesson. I'll probably make a profit but it wasn't the worth the hassle.
Bottom line. Think long and hard about every non consumable purchase.
You should keep it all for future bartering purposes.
Do you have any idea what storage costs?
The stock market is healthy, so how is this even relevant. Wall St. not Main St. is the economy, just ask Kitty Krugman.
Admittedly i have rather large hands, however, a regular chocolate bar equated approximately to 2 middle fingers. Over the past several years these chocolate bars have shrunk in size to just one middle finger. I offer the lost middle finger to ALL manufacturers and retailers of said chocolate bars.
Hershey Air Delights are the same size, if you don't mind paying for air.
SALES ARE DOWN EVEN WITH 30-80% DISCOUNTS ??
And higher prices.
Gas dropped for the same reason other retail sales dropped.
I made an interesting discovery at Ocean State Job Lots. Cold Water Creek (offering 80% off right now online) just closed one of their hoity toity shops after being open for not even three years in Milford, CT. All the clearance items ended up at OSJL. Better stuff than Macy's at the mall. JC Penney isn't even worth commenting about. Who was it that said a few years ago that JCP is a bug looking for a windshield? Macy's quality is shockingly disappointing compared to say ten years ago. Whooda thunck OSJL would be selling better stuff than the mall.
In the NYC area remember that there are 4 boros outside Manhattan plus Long Island and most of NJ north of the PA turnpike exit on the nj turnpike stores, restaurants are packed. Rents from what I hear are still skyrocketing. Commuting to Manhattan from NJ or Long Island costs as much as a monthly car payment in some cases but everyone seems to have unlimited disposable income to eat out all the time and this obsession with buying clothes.
Yes, makes me wonder when everyone else's reality will catch up with the tri-state area. I was in Sears looking for the men's room and stopped by the TV department and couldn't believe the discounts on TV's. Almost bought a sexy $1200 Samsung 50" non-smart TV for $650. My 14 year old JVC CRT is still crankin' so why blow more $$. By the way the kid in the TV dept. was nice enough but he didn't even know what a CRT is!
When you look on ebay anything whatsoever that is 'proper' quality fetches serious interest,bids and money, however old it is. The cheaper crap we've bought over the last few years has a zero value, you need to pay someone to skip it for you! Sadly some of the old good brands have moved into the latter, in that case you need to know age and product numbers to not end up with shit.
Do we have to know this for the final?
"Chief" Economist from Wells Fargo spoke to NPR "from the trading floor" stating that the savings in December from lower oil was not spent on "retail"
More of the emperor shedding his clothes?
oh oh . national retailers assoc. just said holiday sales were very bad.
...so there's never been a better time....
fuck it
Looking good... Just like I expected a collapse in demand for gas also equals a collapse in demand for everything else. Why? The economy is bad. These numbers will eventually give the Fed an excuse to carry on which they want anyway.
Would love to know by what logic you could ever blame or try associate cheaper fuel with sheeple buying fewer things?