US Retail Sales Drop Most Since June 2012 (And Don't Blame Gas Prices)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

But but but... US retail advanced sales dropped a stunning 0.9% MoM (massively missing expectations of a 0.1% drop). The last time we saw a bigger monthly drop was June 2012. Want to blame lower gas prices - think again... Retail Sales ex Autos and Gas also fell 0.3% (missing an exuberantly hopeful expectation of +0.5% MoM) and the all-important 'Control Group' saw sales fall 0.4% (missing expectations of a 0.4% surge). Boom goes the narrative.

Advance Retail Sales massively missed For Dec.

 

Ironically, the great gas price plunge was the worst thing to happen to the US economy since the Polar Vortex:

The breakdown: a sales decline in 9 out of 13 major categories.

as The Control Group shows - this is not gas price related.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:37 | 5659411 Bernanke'sDaddy
Bernanke'sDaddy's picture

I don't understand...

 

I did my part and bought thousands of rounds of 5.56mm and 9mm ammo....

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:39 | 5659415 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I think it rained in Seattle a couple of days....

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:44 | 5659435 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I stopped buying useless shit I don't need and aggressively pay down debt.  I am not sure if I am doing my part or being an extremist.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:43 | 5659446 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Perhaps this explains yesterday's reversal.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:52 | 5659478 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The argument is bogus.

The drop would have been far greater without the drop in gasoline prices.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:00 | 5659519 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Polar Vortex... No wait, that was last year... 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:06 | 5661552 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Vaccine resistent Flu is the New Polar Vortex this year. That is until we get into Spring Disaster Weather Season. Followed by Summer Disaster Weather Season. Followed by Fall Hurricane Weather Season. Followed by....

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:34 | 5659708 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

There has been great reluctance to price gasoline at anywhere near its market value over the last 40 years. 

It has been a seemingly endless honey pot for the "Energy" industry and the US government.

This summer it was clear that the "main street" economy was going to collapse completely.  A point of no return.

Their hand was forced.  Down go gasoline prices.

This is not temporary.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:55 | 5659818 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

You guys are nuts. All that money is simply "sitting on the sidelines."

 

....Gafaw...gafaw...gafaw.....

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:56 | 5659487 knukles
knukles's picture

I love it when a flan comes together.  Bonds and gold, bonds and gold, bonds and gold.....
The safe haven Any Ports in the Storm will do Nicely, Thank You Very Much
The Safest of Money (Gold) the Safest of Currencies for financial assets (US Poopbacks) and the Safest of Long Dated Income in a Deflationary Environment (T-Bonds).

But then again, I'd best be nimble because it's all temporary.  Like the sophist rubbish that there's anything other than a deflationary collapse that we're in.
Thank you, Saudis, thank you Obie, thank you ECB, thank you Vlad.  What else was expected, surrounded by Fuckups?  Seriously?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:21 | 5659610 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Moar Retail Drop bitchez

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:43 | 5659756 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Is it still the best time ever to buy a house then?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 11:07 | 5659884 clade7
clade7's picture

You can get rich quiche when a flan comes together..

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:30 | 5660586 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Bon mot, Sir. Bon mot.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:44 | 5659449 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

You're clearly a terrorist.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:04 | 5659545 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

EXTREMIST!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:46 | 5659453 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

If you are doing your part, then you will now be under the scrutiny of the NSA.

If you are an extremist, then the NSA has a job for you.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:51 | 5659465 ukspreads
ukspreads's picture

Now if they added the DOW and S&P to the Retail Price list, everything would be fine and no need for revisions either

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:07 | 5660472 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

Don't give them any ideas....

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 11:03 | 5659850 JRobby
JRobby's picture

If you are neither, you will be sent to camp.

If you are under NSA scrutiny, a special camp is set aside for you.............

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:20 | 5659617 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Now the fun begins. Retailers start dropping prices and people hold of buying and wait for prices to drop even more.  DEFLATION coming to your town soon.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:25 | 5659641 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Is it time to drop money from helicopters instead of just giving money to the banks?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 11:29 | 5660001 fuu
fuu's picture

No they missed that window.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 12:28 | 5660245 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Shush your mouth! That kind of thing is reserved for those in control. Besides, helicopter money would have some actual velocity. And we can't have that. God knows what happens when you ignite a giant pile of money with velocity. Zimbabwe comes to mind. Kinda like what's about to happen to us here in the states as all the world's FRNs are formally rejected as reserve currency and the only morons that will take them live in the US. Commonly referred to as "re-importing inflation". My popcorn is burning. BRB.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 16:14 | 5661585 SDShack
SDShack's picture

The gas windfall to consumers was just designed as a shell game to provide the illusion of more disposable income to goose the Holiday Season Sales. It was a gigantic fail. Now all this monthly gas windfall, and much more, is being eaten up by rising 0zer0care costs. Just wait till tax season, and the shocked responses of the sheeple when they either don't get a tax refund because of their 0zer0care penalty, or watch their weekly take home pay continue to erode as 0zer0care keeps taking more and more. 0zer0care, Govt Spending and Food is really the only thing driving any type of inflation against the massive deflation occuring everywhere else.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:22 | 5659618 bmr22
bmr22's picture

Yup you got it no debt and we buy little of anything and when we do it comes from the thrift store or ebay or even for free out of the dumpster.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:42 | 5659436 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

dont forget about xmas.  people were busy putting up lights, so they didnt have time to go shopping or visit amazon.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 11:34 | 5660017 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

It was a humid time period so people were afraid to go outside or use their computers to buy from Amazon.

 

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Wed, 01/14/2015 - 12:10 | 5660172 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

And here's the MSM headline...

U.S. Holiday Sales Rose 4%, Just Shy of Prediction, NRF Says

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/u-s-holiday-sales-rose-4-just-s...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:43 | 5659447 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

So, the "sneak gas sales into retail sales figures to artificially boost the RS number" backfired on them....this time.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 12:07 | 5660160 johnconnor
johnconnor's picture

It is the weather folks

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:52 | 5662051 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

post Christmas clearance SALES great for us Orthodox Christians...:-)

does buying 75-90% off retail price count?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:38 | 5659412 OV61FVF
OV61FVF's picture

Painflation, bitchez!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:37 | 5659414 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

BTFD

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:40 | 5659426 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

This was due to the lower gas prices. The cheaper gas got everyone on the road heading to the mall but the traffic jams prevented people from reaching the mall.

You folks really need to think out of the box for a change.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:39 | 5659416 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

I'm shocked! I tell you Shocked!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:40 | 5659418 TradingFinn
TradingFinn's picture

So S&P 500 +50 pts today?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:40 | 5659419 katchum
katchum's picture

Retail sales are linked to inflation. We have deflation, so retail sales drop.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:54 | 5659490 CuttingEdge
CuttingEdge's picture

Alternatively ObummerCare killed Middle American disposable income stone dead.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:43 | 5659744 bmr22
bmr22's picture

Just wait till the fines hit their tax refunds, oh boy.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 11:06 | 5659873 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Refund? Obviously you don't claim 9 dependents.

 

But render unto Caesar: on late payments you will pay an interest rate which is determined quarterly and is the federal short-term rate plus 3 percent. Interest compounds daily.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 11:40 | 5660045 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

The government will have to start encouraging telecommuting from jail.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:40 | 5659420 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

Paging Mr Bullard. Your calming words are required urgently

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:46 | 5659428 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

fuck BullTard, BREAK OUT THE YELLENATOR!

RELEASE THE KRAKEN!

Yellen's severed head vs. the Kraken. Clash of the Titans.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:41 | 5659423 skbull44
skbull44's picture

Cue the weather-related excuses...
http://olduvai.ca

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:40 | 5659424 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Federal Reserve's solution will be to print more.

Onward to QE4.

Welcome to Japan!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:40 | 5659425 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

It's good to see some numbers that reflect where I live.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:42 | 5659427 valley chick
valley chick's picture

MOAR buybacks coming?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:46 | 5659455 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

IN A WORD - YES

the timing might be a bit tricky unless you are dimon or blankfein tho...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:44 | 5659429 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Futures tanking: FTSE down 2.2%, DJIA off 100 points in 5' to minus 250: some other news?

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