This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Is Keystone Still Viable Amid Low Oil Prices?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Andrew Topf via OilPrice.com,

On Monday the Keystone XL pipeline project crossed another hurdle when legislation approving construction of the proposed line to connect Canadian oil sands crude with Gulf Coast refineries was passed by the United States Senate.

The bill sailed through 63 votes to 32 in the Senate, which is now in the hands of the Republicans following November mid-term elections, along with the House of Representatives, which passed the same Keystone legislation last week.

With the bill well on its way to becoming law, it will up to President Obama to decide on whether or not to veto it, a decision he has held off for six years. Obama has criticized the project as adding to greenhouse gas emissions, despite an environmental assessment to the contrary by the State Department released a year ago, and because he argues it would help Canadian producers to deliver crude for export, against the claims of the proponent, TransCanada Corp, which maintains the oil will be processed in US refineries and consumed domestically.

While the political machinations of Keystone, with all the horse trading it inevitably entails, certainly make for some excellent headlines, an equally pressing question is whether the project is even viable with today's oil prices, which dropped further on Monday to below $46 a barrel in North America.

The rationale for Keystone was a way to bring together booming US oil production, and to a lesser extent, production from the oil sands in Northern Alberta, to Gulf Coast refineries that were facing declining imports from Mexico and Venezuela. The project was first proposed in 2008 and was supposed to begin carrying 830,000 barrels a day in 2012.

But the market didn't wait for the pipeline to be built, and landlocked Canadian crude has found its way to Texas and Louisiana refineries by rail instead. Canadian oil exports by rail tripled to a record 182,000 barrels a day in the third quarter, according to Canada's National Energy Board. The United States has also been importing Canadian oil like gangbusters, showing that the trade will happen with or without the pipeline extension (Keystone XL is an addition to the existing pipeline). Data from the US Energy Department showed US imports of Canadian crude reached a record 3.1 million barrels a day in September.

So with some of the project's goals already being met, in terms of increased production flowing from Canada to the US, the question has become, why is a pipeline needed anymore? And now, with the oil price down more than 50 percent since June, Canadian production is certain to fall, lessening demand for oil transportation and thus casting doubt on the economics of the project according to observers.

“Right now with oil prices down and a glut of oil on the global marketplace, the answer is no, we don’t need Keystone right now,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, told a reporter from the San Luis Obispo Tribune last week.

Some are predicting low oil prices could delay the project even if Obama passes it, or it could be shelved altogether.

Chris Lafakis, an energy economist for Moody's Analytics, equated the situation with Keystone to an earlier proposal to build a natural-gas pipeline from Alaska to the Midwest. Despite being approved by then-Governor Sarah Palin, the pipeline was never built due to new gas supplies which pushed prices down by two-thirds. "If oil were to stay as cheap as it is right now, you might very well get that Palin pipeline scenario," Lafakis said.

Ironically, the low oil price could also be used as a justification by Obama to cancel Keystone, according to a low-price scenario envisioned by the State Department when it made the determination that constructing the pipeline wouldn't increase GHG emissions.

As reported by the Globe and Mail, in its analysis the State Department concluded that with prices above $90 a barrel, approval of the pipeline wouldn't affect oil sands production because the oil would find its way to market anyway through more expensive means i.e. rail.

However with a lower oil price, the State Department concluded that the project would be more attractive to producers (about $8 per barrel less than by rail), leading them to boost production and thus increase emissions:

“Oil sands production is expected to be most sensitive to increased transport costs in a range of prices around $65 to $75 per barrel,” it said. “Assuming prices fell in this range, higher transportation costs could have a substantial impact on oil sands production levels … Prices below this range would challenge the supply costs of many projects, regardless of pipeline constraints, but higher transport costs could further curtail production.”

For its part, the company behind the pipeline, TransCanada, refuses to yield on its rationale for the pipeline. CEO Russ Girling told the Globe and Mail that lower crude prices make the project more attractive to producers both in Canada and the US, who are looking for the most cost-effective way to transport oil to refineries.

Further, Girling pointed out that low prices haven't reduced the need for the pipeline either. “On the contrary, TransCanada has 100 per cent of its original contracts still in place and producers are keen to reduce their transportation costs in order to increase per-barrel revenue, or netback,” the Globe reported on Sunday.

It would certainly be ironic if after six years of delay, rhetoric and political maneuvering, what really kills Keystone XL is the oil price, not Obama nor the environmental movement that has lobbied so hard against the project.

Whether or not the pipeline is passed by the White House, it appears that the economics of Keystone XL are just as muddy as its politics.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:53 | 5665047 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

It wasn't viable with $100 per barrel oil.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:01 | 5665076 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Build it while labor, materials and equipment are cheap!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:02 | 5665081 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“we don’t need Keystone right now”

That’s why they will pass it. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:12 | 5665121 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Just build the goddammed thing already.  Don't give a shit if we need it here, today, on some random Thursday in January.  We'll be thankful to have it someday.

I didn't hear even 10% the ammount of bitching and moaning over the Alaskan Pipeline as I do over Keystone.  Did the Alaskan Pipeline "ruin the environment"?  No, and it was going through much more treacherous and fragile areas.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:17 | 5665136 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Just build the goddammed thing already.

You will be happy to learn that much of the new Keystone XL Pipeline is already complete, such as the section that runs near our home, or currently under construction.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:22 | 5665177 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

HH- I have a 50 foot rope that I need to tie between two things that are 60 feet apart.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:38 | 5665278 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

I will bet you a corned beef sandwich that when the time comes this rope turns out to be long enough.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:51 | 5665329 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"Is Keystone Still Viable Amid Low Oil Prices?"

No, it isn't.

That won't stop the corporate wing of the Republican party from passing the bill.

They do not have anything else on their agenda that is meaningful.

They'll pass the bill and spend the next 2 years fund raising.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:30 | 5665506 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Idiot Writer.  Even stoopider editor.

The Keystone is about transportation costs and safety.  Nothing much to do with the short term price of oil.

It will take three years to build.  Sheeeesh.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 17:06 | 5666588 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

Exactly Kaiserhoff,

 

Just how stupid are the people running around here anyway?  this is about squeezing the saudis like a ZIT some day too.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 21:56 | 5668165 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Who is stupid here?

This isn't an eco-issue.

The stuff that goes in the pipeline isn't economically feasible anymore.

And it isn't going to be in 3 years.  Or 5 years.

If you don't realize that this will just be a make work project, then I've got two words for you:

Bend over.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:37 | 5665546 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

I can't believe how many libertarians support this Trojan Horse Keystone pipeline. This is just one of many megaprojects to fulfill the SPP.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:53 | 5665623 GeorgeWKush
GeorgeWKush's picture

Since when did the republican party have a "non-corporate" wing?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:18 | 5665764 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

The question I ask is cui bono from building this pipeline that will require eminent domain for a private project?

I totally understand the rail argument and Buffett benefitting from this project NOT being built, but these are just big wigs stepping on eachother's wanks.

As someone on the grassroots level, I have ZERO impact on whether this project gets built or doesn't get built.

I'm just curious WHY these ZHers support this Keystone project?  Are they in desperate need of a job?  I know damn well they don't give a hoot about relief at the gas pump which is the Main Street prespective on energy so I can rule that out.

How do YOU benefit from Keystone?  I would like to know.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:26 | 5667383 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

Every time costs are reduced, fewer resources are expended in achieving the thing in question. That money saved is freed up for other productive uses, and we all end up wealthier as a result. This pipeline will reduce transportation costs of oil that will be transported regardless of method by $8 per barrel x 700,000 barrels per day, and will probably do it faithfully for at least 50 years. Anyone who claims to care about the environment should want this pipeline built, because that is a LOT less oil being burned in the process of shipping it to a refinery.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 22:00 | 5668195 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

I understand your disgust.

The Republican party relies on the Tea Party, libertarians and social conservatives for all of its "grass roots".

The GOP "plays" these people endlessly.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:25 | 5665206 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

+1 people forget this basic fact... including the knuckleheads protesting the XL section...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Keystone-pipeline-rou...

the big debate is over Phase 4, and the only reason we have astroturf environmentalists protesting the thing and Obama wanting to veto it is because the refiners (Valero) and Buffet (Burlington Northern) don't want it to be built...

basically, political theater

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:32 | 5665227 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture
Apache announces job cuts

 

Budget cuts among energy companies are part of a widespread trend in Houston related to falling oil prices.

Houston-based oil and gas asset company Swift Energy Co. (NYSE: SFY) announced that its 2015 capital spending budget would be slashed by up to 75 percent due to slumping oil prices. Soon after, its president, Bruce Vincent, announced he would retire in February.

Houston-based Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) announced that it will cut an undisclosed number of jobs in Houston.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/01/apache-announces...

 

Carnage in progress for O&G sector and associated cities/states.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:15 | 5665142 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I remember when they built the Alaskan pipeline a lot of people where desperate and grateful for the job opportunity. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:28 | 5665218 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

... and the royalties... I don't see many natives up there turning down THAT paycheck

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:19 | 5665149 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

I don't think it's about the environmental costs, it's about not helping the Canadians lessen their costs, oil is cheap enough as it is...   I don't think there's a chance Obama won't veto, so it's moot.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:24 | 5665189 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"The bill sailed through 63 votes to 32 in the Senate"

 

Read my comment below. Zero won't veto the bill. He has already stated his intentions.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:31 | 5665211 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

but why would he not veto it?  He doesn't have to be re-elected so he's gone cowboy with the pen and the phone.  Maybe it's a bargaining chip to get some concessions on other issues, but it's a crappy offer anyway, tar sand oil makes no sense at current prices, they would lierally have to double.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:34 | 5665230 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

He won't veto it because of the vote count in the senate. Too many powerful people want it. And like I said , his stated intention is not to sign it. Plus oil isn't always going to be this low. A lot of paper oil is being wiped out right now due to margin calls. There will be a lot of money making opportunities before this is over.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:40 | 5665282 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Oil isn't always going to be this low. 

Prince Alwaleed says $100 oil is history, and I don't see too many countries leading the next big economic expansion that will require all this oil.  Too many producers online, tigther fuel economy standards, and the ongoing global depression don't bode well for higher priced oil for quite some time.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:27 | 5665215 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Who owns the railroad? Uncle w...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:22 | 5665159 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

I didn't hear even 10% the ammount of bitching and moaning over the Alaskan Pipeline as I do over Keystone.

 

The Left did not completely own the DNC as of that time, and Ecology was not yet a religion.  Unlike now.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:51 | 5665332 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Building more infrastructure to support the movement of a resource as finite as oil is the stupidest thing humans could do at this point.

No wonder Republicans are all for it.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:57 | 5665369 One Day Only
One Day Only's picture

Is that anything like building a commuter rail line that is built to support a finite number of possible users? One that will have ongoing operating costs that will likely significantly outpace the revenues generated?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:01 | 5665386 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Are there rail lines that support an infinite amount of passengers? I'm not so sure you're thinking your question through. :)

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:06 | 5665405 One Day Only
One Day Only's picture

Nice dodge. The word 'finite' was a bit of snark on my part.  I'm sure you got my point.  There are all sorts of boondoggle projects supported by both side, but ostensibly, the Keystone thing will provide infrastructure to allow for profit on someone's part.  A high-speed rail line, say built in California, connecting two places that don't need a commuter rail line, is almost purely political.  Keystone is absolutely political, but, in addition to the political nonsense, we can all use the products derived from that pipeline, while a rail line provides value to only those select few in that static piece of geography.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:32 | 5665515 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Then my answer is yes. It is similar because commuter rail lines require oil. Bad idea to build any additional transport that relies on something as finite as oil.

 

Great point.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:02 | 5665668 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

That is a stupid argument against high speed rail that right-leaning libertarians always use.  The rest of first world benefits from high speed rail, but the United States is stuck with 19th Century rail.

Billions in tax dollars are spent building freeways connecting cookie cutters to Walmarts, and the libertarians never complain about said freeways "not paying for themselves" even though they do because you can commute to your white collared job from your cookie cutter on them.

Instead of blowing billions supporting Israel and ISIS or worst of all QE, the US could spend money on megaprojects that provide jobs, jobs, jobs, that righties always chant about.  The commerce would benefit immensly from high speed rail.

It's so stupid how they want to spend billions building Interstate 11 connecting Las Vegas to Phoenix.  It's still going to be a 6 hour drive if you follow their silly speed limits.  I'd rather have a high speed rail connecting Vegas to Phoenix and get there in 90 minutes.

Oh yeah, the other method is air travel.  Airports cost billions to build and take up many square miles of land (Denver Intl Airport is over 50 square miles) and the "private" airline industry is constantly under Chapter 11.  Where is the libertarian outrage on airports and airlines?  If the "free market" argument on transportation costs and logistics were followed, we would have dirt paths that wouldn't connect because there would be too much "private property" in the way.  This is why the founding fathers included the "Post Roads" clause to the Constitution, and why the classical liberal Thomas Jefferson (yeah the one that authored the Declaration of Independence and the anti-federalist papers) used federal funding to build the Cumberland Road.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:40 | 5665874 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

Doc, I think a lot of people look at rail travel as an alien form of transportation. I rode the train 6 days a week when I lived in Japan and loved it. Admittedly, innercity rail tranist there is quite different than innercity rail trains in NY or Detroit, as examples.

But I rode the high speed train there as well and was very impressed. I'm probably one of those that would support a HSR providing the route made sense. Certainly one like a Vegas to Phoenix route.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:16 | 5665444 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

I'm fairly certain you are not thinking at all.  Just trolling.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:38 | 5665554 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

The bit about how wasteful it would be to build infrastructure in support of a resource that is quickly depleting is the epitome of rational thought. Especially given the fact that the project would increase the rate at which the resource was depleted.

The bit about Republicans was trolling.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:27 | 5665819 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

The bit about how wasteful it would be to build infrastructure in support of a resource that is quickly depleting is the epitome of rational thought. Especially given the fact that the project would increase the rate at which the resource was depleted.

+1

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:36 | 5667435 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

The oil will flow regardless of method of transport, until we can all carry around Mr. Fusions in our pants. Proven worldwide reserves are higher than they've ever been. The reduced footprint involved in transporting this oil via pipeline vs rais is significant. All your arguments against the pipeline actually make a better argument for it.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:05 | 5665086 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Illegal labor for $8.00 / hour.   Lets do this thing.

And for anybody who thinks Crude will be this low forever is just plain nuts.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:11 | 5665119 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

With Obongo paid sick leave for all!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:45 | 5665301 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

You're quite possibly correct. With oil this low, those $50 and $60 an hour equipment operator jobs are probably a thing of the past.

All you'll need is a decent truck, a drag-up tank, and the ability to operate a grader/dozer.

No English speaking skills required.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:39 | 5665283 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

Sure, what not build it on stolen property acquired by eminent domain? After all the concept of private property is just an illusion in the US anyway.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:27 | 5665492 F0ster
F0ster's picture

Exactly - build the Keystone and F! the Saudi's

 

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:54 | 5665048 silverer
silverer's picture

At this rate, we'll be going back to firewood anyway.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:18 | 5665151 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

That's illegal! Put down the fire wood! .........BANG!  BANG! BANG!

 

Can I go on vacation now?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:33 | 5665244 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

What is this "back to" you speak of?  10 cords every year.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:53 | 5665049 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i admit, i dont know much of the details here.  but, looking at this short term is a bad idea.  in 5 or 10 years, will this make sense?  afterall, it will take how long to get this thing up and running?  basing the future energy needs on current oil prices is very short sighted, and exactly what i'd expect from the morons in .gov.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:20 | 5665160 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

In five to ten years I'll be driving a fuel-cell powered car.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:55 | 5665052 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Oil prices won't stay here forever. Not a lot of logic going on here. Why not build it while the pipeline production is a lot cheaper?

 

It would at least give sheisty contractors full of illegals some work to do.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:59 | 5665372 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

...why?

Why not buy an expensive table saw when you're about to run out of access to wood?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:54 | 5665053 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Until the existing infrastructure has crumbled....

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:58 | 5665065 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Obama will veto it. Not because of the reasons he stated, but because his billionaire friend, Warren Buffet, has invested heavily in trains.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:05 | 5665088 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

BNSF.

 

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:09 | 5665097 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Obama didn't say he would veto the pipeline bill. He said he wouldn't sign it, which is a big difference. If he doesn't sign it and congress is in session it becomes law in ten days. If congress is not in session it becomes a pocket veto

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:13 | 5665127 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I think that's semantics on what dear leader Ozero has been saying from the beginning. We know he's going to do what Uncle Warren tells him to do.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:55 | 5665641 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

You bet your ass, even though Nebraska courts ok'd it. Frigging Crooks@@@@

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 11:59 | 5665067 youngman
youngman's picture

Think long term people..its needed....does this mean you do not buy a Swiss knife anymore....we have to think more than just the next quarter...think 30 years from now....do we need it ..yes we do...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:09 | 5665106 Collapsed
Collapsed's picture

You are not thinking long term, my friend.  Long term (within 20 years) you will have cold fusion.  Oil is dead.  Time to move on.  Energy revolution is happening as we speak.  No reason to waste the time and money on a soon to be outdated energy source.  Tesla had this figured out decades ago... 

 

See Here: http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/191754-cold-fusion-reactor-verified-b...

And Here: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/16/has-lockheed-martin-r...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:15 | 5665134 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Oil is bird in hand.  Cold fusion is a bird in bush.  For 20+ years now.

Build it.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:31 | 5665232 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

From the article you referenced: Fusion power has long been the sun that never rises.  Not happpening.  Good thing we still have oil and wood along with coal, hydro and nuclear.  The rest are just dreams.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:33 | 5665853 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Nuclear power was "just dreams" in the 1930s, so what is your point?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:00 | 5665074 Katastrofenhausse
Katastrofenhausse's picture

Can they use Keystone Pipeline for Bitcoins? ... oh wait that would require a drainpipe

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:00 | 5665075 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Notch-8 Warren...!!!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:02 | 5665077 JRobby
JRobby's picture

The fight will continue. You cant stop the Lib vs Con pissing contest in mid stream. A political war/test of wills.

While the rest of the country is in all out decline these shit for brains tools argue over this shit.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:04 | 5665089 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Because oil prices will always be low....

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:35 | 5665090 mtl4
mtl4's picture

Buffet loves earning that extra $8 per barrel via rail so I'm sure Barry O will be getting the call soon to veto that getting completed.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:06 | 5665098 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Let's see how much time compresses here, as opposed to 2007/2008 when 'no one saw it coming'.   Will muscle memory kick in, or will this live train-wreck-in-progress not dawn on the money masters until 2016?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:07 | 5665101 Spungo
Spungo's picture

It's more environmentally friendly to ship the oil half way across the world, from Saudi Arabia. /s

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:07 | 5665104 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

It's Palin fault for advocating all that drilling.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:09 | 5665113 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Low oil prices must mean low steel, tires, trucks, tractors etc. prices so I guess it makes sense to call it off and let it rot. Wait until we can go over buget makes it more of an opperation of economic distruction. Harrumph!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:15 | 5665128 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Obama has criticized the project as adding to greenhouse gas emissions...

Never go full retard.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:14 | 5665132 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Maybe people are against the Keystone pipeline because they think it's proposed by the people who make Keystone beer.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:24 | 5665183 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Or it would produce something?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:14 | 5665133 PrayingMantis
PrayingMantis's picture

 

 

... do you ever get the feeling that Keystone is over and Canuck PM Harper didn't get the message? ...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:14 | 5665138 JailBank
JailBank's picture

I live in Nebraska, ground zero for the debate. You have Buffett and his train haulers fighting tooth and nail here to keep that pipeline from being built. As long as Warren owns that railroad this thing is dead in the water.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:29 | 5665219 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I propose taking back the train land (trains are not green) and giving the land to the oil companies for pipelines. If buffscocks wants to use his trains he'll have to buy tires from china.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:14 | 5665139 honest injun
honest injun's picture

If a private company wants to build a pipeline then the governments should not prevent them.  Governments should not be in the pipeline business.  The only thing tht they should be doing is securing each man and womans' unalienable rights.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:26 | 5665196 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Privatize the army too... oh, wait....

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:32 | 5665234 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

or inalienable writes.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:39 | 5665866 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

If a private company wants to build a pipeline then the governments should not prevent them.

The problem is that said "private" corporation needs eminent domain (a government power stated in the Constitution) to build their pipeline.

Maybe there's "private" property owners along the route who don't want their land taken, or want to be neighbors to a pipeline.

Yeah, screw those "private property" owners along the route, its "private" corporations that have more power than people nowadays.  Right-leaning libertarians are such charlatans.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:32 | 5665239 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Yes, that is what the original intent, purpose & 'spirit' of the founding was all about.   But C'mon man - that was old white guys time.    We're so much more enlightened now...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:16 | 5665141 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

And, of course, if we don't need it right now, we never will!

 

Reminds me of Clinton saying in the 90's that drilling in ANWAR wasn't practical because "it would take ten years" for it to produce and lower prices.  Gee, what would be the point in that?  

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 17:09 | 5666608 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

Bill is a savvy politician.  but he's clearly NOT a smart man.

 

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:17 | 5665143 csmith
csmith's picture

"...why is a pipeline needed anymore?"

Because a pipeline is cheaper and safer than rail, and will result in a lower cost feedstock for the Gulf refiners than what they are getting currently. End of story.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:18 | 5665145 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

The answer is no which is why CITI is laundering frn's for the Saudis.  This oil smash solves problems , lots of problems for the Bamster and the jerks ( MIC,WS,CB's, Boehner, Mcconnell)who support him..

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:18 | 5665154 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture
Is Keystone Still Viable Amid Low Oil Prices?

Why certainly!...

As long as it's funded with the Ruble as the World Reserve currency!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:20 | 5665166 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Isn't it the cost to transport by rail VS the cost to transport by pipeline that really decides if it is viable or not?

 

In fact - the lower oil prices go the more important it becomes to save on transportation costs.

 

If it costs you $35 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground and you are selling it for $100 a barrel you can afford to pay $15 a barrel to transport it -

 

If it costs you $35 to get the oil out of the ground and you are selling it for $45 a barrel then paying $15 to transport it would not work.  

 

 

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:23 | 5665185 madcows
madcows's picture

so we'll never have a need for canadian oil? 

I'm sorry, did saudi arabia get a refill of crude oil in the ground?

Politicians are fuckwits.  "Don't build it.  It's politically unwanted with the NIMBY crowd".

Right.  Don't build it.  People dont want it.... except when gas goes back up to $4 a gallon.  Then, they'll be screaming "why didn't you build the pipeline?  that would have lowered our prices".

Hey, congress... do your fucking job and quit worrying about your political CAREER.  it's not a fucking lifetime career with tenure.  You're hired to do a job.  Fucking do it and build the fucking pipeline.  Fucking assholes.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:24 | 5665191 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

"Obama has criticized the project as adding to greenhouse gas emissions", so pumping it through a tube instead of driving it via train increases emissions?

Jackass of all trades, master of none.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:34 | 5665242 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

You are only allowed to drive on coal based carbon alternative fuel. Gasoline is bad for you. Besides, we need to upgrade our electric infrastructure grid by your taxable donations.

 

Fucking assclowns in Washington, DC

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:46 | 5665889 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

so pumping it through a tube instead of driving it via train increases emissions?

You pretty much nailed it.

Whenever "greenhouse gases" or "climate change" are used as arguments by Big Business, it is all about shutting down their competition.  Believe me, these suit and ties don't give two hoots about the environment.

If CO2 emissions and "carbon trading" are their arguments, its purely economic.  These guys will do NOTHING to combat clear cutting of forests, loss of habitat, toxic waste dumping, garbage in oceans, cleaning up the Gulf oil disaster, Fukushima radiation, the release of GMOs, or anything of signifcance. 

They only push hot air, pun intended.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:59 | 5666562 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Thank you. Now train the monkey's. Couldn't up vote you. We must be special childen. /LOL

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:25 | 5665200 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Was there intention all along. Create a false notation of peak oil. When in fact, they are blocking new exploration projects. Can't wait for the public uproar once the muppets figured out this tactical plan.

Fugazi - Long Division

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:34 | 5665255 litemine
litemine's picture

Energy East, a Pipeline Project that sends Oil, or thin Bituman to Eastern Refineries that can handle the product enviromentally responsible. The Movement of Oil , Federally Regulated. 

Individual Canadians would Save in transport, middle men, taxes and Profits. 

Jobs would be Created and Self Sustainability within our Country.  Building Infrastuctures for Canadians.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:44 | 5665294 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

If I only had a dollar for the amount of times my Canadian friends told me the hydro is down. Yet, the water was still following.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:31 | 5665503 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Put'er in low eh... Bob and Doug McKenzie

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:44 | 5665291 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

Keystone never made Economic Sense. It was always a bi product of the Voodoo Economics that apply to black gold.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:46 | 5665309 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It will be fun to watch you cut your lawn with a pair of toe nail clippers.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:48 | 5665324 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

No I will use my solar powered robot lawnmover. It makes no sense to transport something as yucky as bitumen 6000 Kilometers to refine. Its like going to the store to buy a lb of hamburger and having to take a cow home.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:10 | 5665419 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

How much oil will be needed to build and ship you a new robot every other year and what's the price of those robot lawn mowers? I can buy alot of gas for $1000 a year. If you walked your talk you'd be walking behind a rotary push lawn mower. Strike us a pose. Sustainable means you have to sustain it with moolaa.... that's what cows say!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:13 | 5665442 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I see, how many de-bagging trips will you make while vaccuming your lawn?

iRobot Roomba

Hope you know that I'm just fucking with you. Get a sense of humor.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:15 | 5665448 numapepi
numapepi's picture

It takes as much energy to produce a solar cell as that cell will produce in it's lifetime. That is why they call them solar batteries. Ponder that a moment or two.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:56 | 5665644 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I provided the acrylic middle tube to Solyndra. It was a safety mechanism in case a dumb asshole fell on the solar panel.  A photovoltaic cell will kill you, wet both index finger and place them at each end of cell. Call me from your hospital room, if you survived. Great partnership until the FBI showed up. My competitor in California was hit with 1.5 million in unpaid inventory. I lucked out. I was 80% of supply chain, California was 20%. Do the math. Once the new manufacturing building was complete, everything went south.

Don’t school me on solar energy.

 

You can read thru the 145 pages of S-1, if you wish

https://gigaom.com/2009/12/20/solyndra-has-raised-close-to-1b-and-other-fast-facts-from-its-s-1/

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:21 | 5685460 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You realize constructing such a device even in mass production would actually consume MORE bitumen/oil, including mining & machining metals, casting, etc., to do so?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 12:45 | 5665312 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

In the world where the Reality Distorion field is the ultimate weapon the Keyston was killed by the hubris of Steve Harper.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:04 | 5665402 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

That's because Steven Harper is focused on NAFTA Superhighway, shipping Heroin laced marshmallows over the border. Then declaring a war on drugs campaign. Just another Hypocrite pandering lies.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:02 | 5665384 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

So you believe oil prices are going to stay long term low? Seems Russia is trying hard to not let that happen.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:01 | 5665962 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

My Magic 8 Ball fortune-telling device has a crack in the screen. Honestly, not sure. I can tell you that this is a currency war, who wins is only a guess. The person that dumps US Treasuries wins. Who, not sure. Too many proxy wars going on and a tremendous amount of propaganda. I have an hint, but prefer not to share at this time.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:11 | 5665427 Solio
Solio's picture

We would be best served by thinking and moving beyond oil and nuclear. There are other ways to power the world. Yes, I dream.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:19 | 5665461 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Would be nice. I think your (someone) going to have to crack a few safes for that to happen. Where's anonymous when it comes to free energy tesla tech?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 17:13 | 5666624 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

Tesla makes all their tech availble royalty free.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:31 | 5666428 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Solio,

Why not dream by pulling out your cheque book. Moving beyond will make you feel good. $10 million will enpower you. Dream of your vision. We don't accept EBT transfer payments. Sorry.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:46 | 5667489 Solio
Solio's picture

I pulled out my cheque book in, maybe 1983, so we had 240 gallons of hot water to use for whatever. In the winter we pulled the heat off of it to assist with the home heat. That home was sold years ago and nobody since then understood or maintained the system. I believe that it is still in place. Solar electric was not efficient enough to be financially viable at that time.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:55 | 5667527 Solio
Solio's picture

FWIW, Grandad had said, when I was very young, that he had solar panals on his home in Miami in the 1920's for their dhw.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:14 | 5665436 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

Radical idea here: Why not let the market decide if this pipeline is viable or not in the long term?

 

Commodities are in deflation due to a collapse in investments (building boom over, companies not growing - not buying machinery...) - great time to build

but consumer goods are clearly seeing about 8% annual inflation (food, housing, taxes are all going up)- why should oil be different?

as for oil its demand is inelastic and the drop in price per barrel is being orchestrated by the Saudis refusing to drop production (at the behest of their US masters to hurt the Russians, Iranians, Venezuelans) -  price drop is temporary

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:00 | 5665649 Jeepers Creepers
Jeepers Creepers's picture

Because the "market" isn't allowed to make that decision, too many rules and regulations.  Even after addressing every ridiculous concern, it's still being held up.

 

Funny how the Left never says "Let the market decide" when it comes time for a ridiculous monorail project that no one will ever ride.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:04 | 5665933 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Funny how the Left never says "Let the market decide" when it comes time for a ridiculous monorail project that no one will ever ride.

We've gone 180 degrees since the beginning of the 20th Century.

Monorail projects that "no one will ever ride" because today's urban sprawl landscape is depended on these multi-billion dollar concrete ribbons called freeways connect cookie cutters to Walmarts.  Those said freeways don't "pay for themselves" at all.

Before the Great American Streetcar Scandal people rode streetcars to get around.  The freeway system changed all of that.  Eminent domain was declared and many structures along the route were demolished.  Businesses along arterial roads loss traffic and eventually went out.  Even though its a cartoon, Who Framed Roger Rabbit? comes to mind.

It's so bizarre how right-leaning libertarians criticize every form of transportation except freeways and automobiles, when freeways don't pay for themselves, require billions in tax revenue to build, bypass small businesses along arterial routes they replaced causing them to fail, and they even replaced the streetcar system that used to pay for itself with fares, but obviously now can't compete against Big Auto and government-funded infrastructure.

The other funny thing is the auto-eroticism of right-libertarians even though the automobile market is beyond saturated with used cars to the point where Big Auto needs bailouts just to keep the factories open churning out new cars that few need, then these righties whine about "markets" and "jobs".

Just total doublethink, and a lack of historical prespective, causes these silly right-libertarian arguments.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:15 | 5685432 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Market's not willing to pay. If it was they'd pay all the people who will lose clean water to a pipeline spill - in advance - so they can relocate to a safer area. Once the Ogalla aquifer is contaminated it's game over for tons of farmers & residents. The real market cost to let this happen - and the real market freedom of those using the water refusing to allow a pipeline in for too low a price - would mean a super high price for oil going through it.

Market's not willing to pay hence the politicians are saying all losses fall on the users of the water with no insurance, no compensation, no backup-plan, no protection.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:14 | 5665438 moonman
moonman's picture

Thank god oil prices are now going to stay low forever. 

raise the tax and start building GTO's and RoadRunners again.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:27 | 5665497 numapepi
numapepi's picture

Vermont is talking about enacting a $1.35 a gallon gasoline tax. The Congress is talking about more fuel taxes as well... good thing energy will be cheap now forever! The taxes alone will make it more expensive than we can afford.

No one is as greedy as a politician, or as envious as a progressive, coveting something someone else has earned.

But then again, isn't that the plan?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:48 | 5665608 RushRoolz
RushRoolz's picture

My father, who lives in VT and is ultra-(read: Pelosi, Reid, etc) liberal, has banged his fist for even more gas tax. Oddly, he doesn't seem to agree when I suggest we place a 50% tax on food since we Americans are eating too much and clearly too portly as a group. Then he goes back to bitching about how high his property tax is and how it cost him $700 for his last tank of propane... two weeks after the last fill up. It exhausts me to try and tie my brain into a pretzel with him.

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:42 | 5665569 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

Same in Quebec, gasoline taxes rising fast, politicians can't believe their windfall

But you can be sure when the low oil prices disappear, the added taxes will stay

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:16 | 5665450 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Isn't 90% of this damn thing already built?  I'm tired of hearing about it.  It's a done deal as far as i'm concerned. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:23 | 5665484 numapepi
numapepi's picture

Wouldn't it make sense to lower the cost of transportation in an environment where the profit margin is being squeezed?

Apparently, shipping oil on a train, and burning fossil fuel to transport it, will produce less carbon dioxide than shipping it through a pipe at near zero fossil fuel use. That only makes sense to Warren Buffett who owns the trains... and to environmental mentals.

BTW... I thought Obama and Biden were all about improving infrastructure? Remember Biden in China praising their ability to build anything they want without any citizen input. I guess their rhetoric doesn't match their actions... again.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:32 | 5665513 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Has it become uneconomic to plant corn for ethanol yet?  I suppose farmers need to place their bets right around now.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:49 | 5665611 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

At one time didn't all the animals in the forest belong to the crown? Now so do the trees. Can't use them for warmth, global warming and all. Don't mind that huge tower surrounded by mirrors that fries anything that flies into it instantly. Of course the pipeline will be profitable and feasable, after saud pumps all their's out of the ground. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 13:53 | 5665627 Jeepers Creepers
Jeepers Creepers's picture

The entire keystone debate is about one person, billionaire Tom Steyer and what he doles out for Democrats.

 

This hypocrite made his fortune in oil, now he wants to fight "Global Warming"

 

Oil is not going to be cheap forever, and I like the idea of Canada and the US being able to trade their resources more efficiently rather than by rail (which SURPRISE!, Warren Buffet owns)

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:08 | 5665984 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

This hypocrite made his fortune in oil, now he wants to fight "Global Warming"

Kind of like Al Gore, Ken Lay, and BP.

Big Oil is the main progenitor of the AGW "consensus"

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:10 | 5665704 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

keystone has been running to Kushing since 2010 and texas coast since 2013 - oil from alberta

 

barry blocking keystone through the midwest adds about 1.50 to the cost of oil delivered to kushing

 

barry is blocking this so this fucking communist can fulfil a deal with another fucking communist - George Soros - to deliver deep sea oil from Petrobras (Brazil)

 

and it's failling - FUCK YOU AND DIE BARRY

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:09 | 5685402 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Let's not forget Warren Buffet almost has all 4 railroads on the board

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:18 | 5665730 Element
Element's picture

Pipelines usually last much, much longer than a price decline. By the time it's built the price may be 50 to 100% higher.

Has there ever been a new major hydrocarbon pipeline development during the past 100 years that didn't over the life-cycle of that pipeline not make an enormous NET profit? 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:15 | 5666032 Duude
Duude's picture

So much BS!  Obama's refusal to sign has everything to do with deep pocketed Tom raining money on democrats. This isn't even about the environment. The crude is going to travel to refineries by truck and rail if not by pipeline, which will certainly foul the environment up more. And I couldn't give a flying fuck if this oil goes to Europe, China or any other country besides the US. I don't care because this pipeline does what should be important to all domestic and foreign consumers----Get more oil onto the world market.  So many didn't believe oil prices are affected by world supply and demand. So certain it was all a fix. Well, today anyone with a brain better understand oil isn't cheap today because OPEC is so generous. Its cheap because we have an oil glut for what world demand is today. Given any level of world demand, price is relational to current supply. Flood the world with oil and/or lower demand, and prices will drop. Too many forget 1986-2002 when oil prices were depressed.  In another 5 years China will be well into producing oil from their own shale deposits. China has the world's largest shale deposits.  Doesn't matter if they consume it all themselves because they'll be buying that much less from other countries.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:44 | 5685306 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Dems = Repubs

It's a hoax.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:02 | 5666216 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Corn is in everything from frozen yogurt to ketchup, from mayonnaise and mustard to hot dogs and bologna, from salad dressings to vitamin pills. "Tell me what you eat," said the French gastronomist Anthelme Brillat-Savarin, "and I will tell you what you are." We're corn. - Bunny Crumpacker

 

They did this back in 2007, nearly every plastic resin manufacture went into Force Majeure mode. If memory serves me right, the polypropylene market was hit the hardest.

 

Biogas typically refers to a mixture of different gases produced by the breakdown of organic matter in the absence of oxygen. Biogas can be produced from raw materials such as agricultural waste, manure, municipal waste, plant material, sewage, green waste or food waste.

The Biogas Disaster

The question, eat corn or fill your car up with flex fuel? Some of my cars are premium gas rated only.

A flexible-fuel vehicle (FFV) or dual-fuel vehicle (colloquially called a flex-fuel vehicle) is an alternative fuel vehicle with an internal combustion engine designed to run on more than one fuel, usually gasoline blended with either ethanol or methanol fuel, and both fuels are stored in the same common tank.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:01 | 5666267 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

A better question would be whether rail transport is viable amid low oil prices...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:20 | 5666377 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

They ran that scope back in the 70- 80's. Look at the cost of diesel fuel today. Rail uses diesel. Same bullshit, different day. New choo-choo trains will be equipped for flex-fuel or Natgas. Starts out low, then becomes cost prohibitive....

How many rabbits do I need to pull at of my hat to demonstrate tulip booms?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 20:30 | 5667711 Wilcox1
Wilcox1's picture

Build Keystone. We need it.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 22:23 | 5668291 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

No we don't.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 23:15 | 5668517 harleyjohn45
harleyjohn45's picture

If Obama says its bad, then it must be good.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!