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Muppet Murder: Goldman's "Top #6 Trade Reco For 2015" Crushed, Stopped Out After 16.5% Loss In One Day

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's a one-two for the muppet mauling masters at Goldman Sachs, who first crucified anyone who listened to the Buy Best Buy reco from Tuesday, and now, those who put their money into Top Trade #6 for 2015 by the Goldman uber traders, which was to Short CFH/SEK - obviously on margin - just got crucified after the unlevered pair just crashed 16.5%, stopping out those who listened to Goldman and sold CHFSEK to Goldman's prop, pardon flow, traders, and leading to a complete loss on margin, unless of course one has an infinite balance sheet.

From Goldman's Robin Brooks, who is not quite Tom Stolper yet, but is slowly getting there.

Trade Update: Closing our Top Trade Recommendation #6: Short CHF/SEK as SNB removes minimum exchange rate

 

We close our Top Trade recommendation to be short CHF/SEK, opened at 7.70 on November 20, for a potential loss of 16.5% including carry, following the SNB’s removal of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate of 1.20. At the same time, the SNB cut rates further into negative territory to ?0.75%. EUR/CHF touched a low of 0.86 before recovering to around 1.02 at the time of writing.

 

The SNB’s surprise decision to abandon the floor today was linked in the press release to diminished overvaluation of the Swiss Franc. Our own measure of fair value for EUR/CHF (GSDEER) suggests that fair value has fallen from around 1.44 in 2010 to around 1.40 currently. As such, while the overvaluation of the Swiss Franc may have been diminishing, this effect looks to have been relatively small on our estimates, not least given the sharp appreciation of the CHF today in the wake of the announcement. Indeed, on our trade-weighted index of the Swiss Franc versus the G10 currencies, today’s strengthening in the Swiss Franc takes it above its peak value back in 2010, even factoring in the decline in EUR/$ in recent months.

 

Our trade recommendation was based on the idea that inflation dynamics in Sweden do not share the same structural component as those in the Euro area, and that this should ultimately be reflected in diverging monetary policy and the strengthening of the SEK vs the EUR. While this view remains intact – we continue to expect EUR/SEK lower – the implementation using the CHF on the short side was contingent on the SNB’s maintaining the floor. We close our short CHF/SEK recommendation for a potential loss of 16.5%.

Once again, one picture is worth 1000 Top Trade Recommendations:

 

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Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:23 | 5665787 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

There are some hookers in Manhattan who will make their year this week.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:28 | 5665815 observer007
observer007's picture

Latest REUTERS News on EURO:

http://tersee.com/#!q=reuters+euro&t=text

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:34 | 5665858 fx
fx's picture

I am sure goldman sucks wasn't short the franc in it's prop trading. That being said, i smell a huge long-term opprtunity shorting the swissie here against gold....

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:35 | 5665862 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

who is John Galt ?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:28 | 5666422 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Maybe I don't understand something but with a peg in place (that you think is going to stay in place) why wouldn't you just short the EUR and not have the potential for something like this to happen?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:41 | 5665880 junction
junction's picture

Another year, another muppet massacre.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:48 | 5666181 RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

Are there actually people that act on Goldman's reco's?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:03 | 5666274 DutchR
DutchR's picture

So now is the time to go long on lube, thx ZH.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:23 | 5665789 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Poor muppets have been pounded in the ass so many times you could drive a truck through it.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:26 | 5665807 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Yep, unable to rip a fart but still able to unleash a whispy fluff.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:43 | 5665883 nink
nink's picture

Every seller needs a buyer

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:28 | 5665816 bania
bania's picture

Are you using the whole fist Lloyd?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:57 | 5665942 Manthong
Manthong's picture

They’re knee deep in it now.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:26 | 5665793 CClarity
CClarity's picture

I guess the head of SNB is NOT a former Goldman Sucks employee - unlike most all the others.  They'll get that fixed soon enug!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:24 | 5665794 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

It truely is NOT different this time. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:43 | 5665881 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Nope it's not but I'm having a schadenfreude moment.....

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:46 | 5665891 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

How can people sleep at night with open trades?  I guess the same they sleep at night with their retirement accounts in safe hands. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:25 | 5665799 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

Off topic: it would appear we have just witnessed our very own terrorist attack just now in Belgium - two dead, but these would be the jihadi terrorists. There's not much more news for the time being. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:29 | 5665824 GVB
GVB's picture

url?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:35 | 5665855 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

http://www.krantenkoppen.be/go.php?b=lalibre&kID=166573

Sorry, this is in French - it all just happened and there's hardly any information available - from what I've understood, the police had been following three jihadi warriors who had returned from Syria and apparently they have been attacked by the police at a private home address - three dead  for now. 

Nothing on the scale of Paris though, it would seem. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:27 | 5665806 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

Here comes Miss Piggy with her STAP-ON!!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:26 | 5665809 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Arrest Lloyd Blankfein for treason and financial terrorism

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:29 | 5665828 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Hehe. Goldman's Sacks walks up to Kermie while in the position and says with a smirk, "Woops!"

Poor Kermie can only squeal.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:30 | 5665833 gmak
gmak's picture

Cheeky picture. It's now in the rotation for my 5 minute random desktop picture.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:30 | 5665836 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Tyler, please keep us informed on robbin' Robin's trade recos so we can fade accordingly. Much obliged

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:29 | 5665838 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

What will happen to Goldman traders if they get caught with Kermit the Prone as a screen saver?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:48 | 5665897 Equality 7-25-1
Equality 7-25-1's picture

Rapid advancement.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:31 | 5665841 voltrader66
voltrader66's picture

Fuck...now no one will buy my expensive home in CT.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:06 | 5665985 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Daily quakes continue in CT... But unfortunately it would stop anything that bankers are doing or planning.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:31 | 5665843 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

What's ' diminished overvaluation ' mean in layman's terms , please?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:06 | 5665981 Blano
Blano's picture

I'm gonna go with "less overpriced. "

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:30 | 5665844 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Burt and Ernie want in on the action.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:31 | 5665847 kowalli
kowalli's picture

but but recovery? oh wait joyflation...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:32 | 5665848 TCA
TCA's picture

frogse.cx

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:37 | 5665863 Burls
Burls's picture

Are you insinuating that my good friend Lloyd LIED TO THE PEOPLE?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:42 | 5665876 redman38
redman38's picture

the best picture

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:47 | 5665894 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

Muppets IMPALED!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:45 | 5665892 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Anyone that still listens to these evil cocksuckers deserves to have their asses handed to them on a platter.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:35 | 5666123 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

So Kermit's ass is somewhere off camera, on a silver platter? He does look like it is missing...

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:47 | 5665899 malek
malek's picture

Thanks for not forgetting to add the fine print:

unless of course one has an infinite balance sheet

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:37 | 5666131 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

And the Fed thanks us all for letting it happen.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 14:57 | 5665941 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I think GS gets way too much negativity. They provide a valuable service. People who want to make money buy books and learn how investing works. People who want to lose money go to Goldman Sachs. Everybody wins. What's the problem? I personally don't understand the desire to lose money on dumb shit like extended warranties and investment advice from hair dressers, but some people love it. Who am I to say they are wrong?

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:38 | 5666134 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

You must be on the other side of some of those deals. ;-)

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 15:30 | 5666095 Nana
Nana's picture

PULL!!!!!! KA-BUUUMMMMMMMMMMMMMM CLIENTS FACES RIP THEM OFF!!! MOFOs!!!!!!!!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 16:16 | 5666340 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Follow Goldman's trade recommendations and you, too, can have an ass like a clown's pocket.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 18:03 | 5666917 messystateofaffairs
messystateofaffairs's picture

Any goy stupid enough to do business with Goldman deserves to have their asshole occupy the territory where their buttcheeks used to be. Poor Kermit has nothing to sit on anymore.

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