This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

The Next Round of the Great Crisis as Begun

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

The entire rally in stocks post-2009 has been due to Central Bank intervention of one kind or another. Whether it be by cutting interest rates, printing money, buying bonds, or promising to do more/ verbal intervention, the Fed and others have done everything they can to push stocks higher.

 

As a result, today, more than 90% of market price action is based on investors’ perceptions of what the Central Banks will do… NOT fundamentals. For instance, if bad economic data hits the tape, the market tends to rally because investors believe this will result in the Fed having to print more money.

 

Again, the primary driver of stocks is no longer fundamentals, but Central Bank intervention.

 

As a direct result of this, the final and ultimate round of the Crisis that begin in 2008 will occur when faith is lost in the Central Banks.

 

That round is now beginning, with the Swiss National Bank breaking its promise to maintain the 1.2 Franc/Euro peg. This is the proverbial emperor has no clothes moment: the time in which the investing public realizes that Central banks are not omnipotent.

 

There have been hints of this for years now.

 

Firstly there was the ongoing “is it legal or is it not legal?” arguments for the ECB’s OMT program. Mario Draghi “saved” the financial system and the EU in 2012 by promising to do “whatever it takes.” Two years later, it’s still not even clear that he could do “what it takes” from a legal standpoint.

 

Then came Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s decision to increase the Bank of Japan’s QE program, not because it would benefit Japan’s economy, but because doing so would make his colleagues’ forecasts better match his own.

 

All of the above indicated that Central Bankers were just making it all up on the fly… but it wasn’t until the Swiss National Bank broke an outright promise, broke a set currency peg, AND lost between $60-$100 billion in a single day, that things really got ugly.

 

At this point, the writing is on the wall: nothing can be taken for granted.  No assurances or promises or proclamations will hold.

 

The next time stuff hits the fan, will the world be as trusting in Central Banker proclamations? Will we continue to believe these folks are omnipotent? Or will their phony promises accomplish nothing?

 

We’ll find out.

 

Don’t let the second round of the financial crisis crush your portfolio… we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.

 

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html

 

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 01/16/2015 - 13:51 | 5670944 Ewtman
Fri, 01/16/2015 - 13:17 | 5670763 Goldy Locks
Goldy Locks's picture

Pension funds loose CHF30bn due to SNB's last move

http://www.ipe.com/countries/switzerland/snbs-snap-currency-decision-wip...
Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:51 | 5670376 JRobby
JRobby's picture

It would appear that the oligarchs may beginning to turn on one another.

What might happen at the next Biderberger?

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 13:04 | 5670701 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

The elites don't turn on eachother, birthrights supersede turmoil.

 

Same as last meeting, allocation of power and control.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:18 | 5670149 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

The last 5 years was about holding the system up until all the vested interest worth was moved to safe havens.

What happens then is all the props are removed because all those more important (and who create the rules) are now safe.

What good is having a collapse if there are no kings and queens to rule over people once it ends? I also don't think they are 100% confident on surviving any serious economic turmoil and I totally agree with them ... their necks not mine.

All that is interesting now is wether they can stand on the sidelines, gleefully rubbing their hands with how much they got. Or if it really tanks oooops ... this is not going to work and out with the QE once more.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 10:50 | 5670030 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

I don't think the actions of the SNB occured in a vacuum, but is actually part of a concerted action to ultimately force a breakup of the EU as it exists today; not a complete dissolution, but into confirming a shift of the more nordic sectors of the EU to face east to join the EuroAsian Freetrade Zone, and Russia and China. Expect Germany to inherit the euro and then backing it with gold and barter trade agreements. Again, this is deliberately intended to throw a monkey wrench into the machinery. Europe is sick to death of the AngloAmerican Empire of War, Greed, Lies, Chaos and Narco-money laundering.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 14:59 | 5671312 One of We
One of We's picture

How could anyone ever get tired of laundering narco bucks?  Not like these banks are busy extending lines of credit to small business or peddling home improvement loans.....

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:23 | 5670176 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

Let us all hope and pray you're right.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:36 | 5670264 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

Do more than that. Go long gold, food and gasoline. This will all seve to drive up the dollar on the DXY, faster and faster until it crushes all economies under an insupportable burden. A sudden move by a large number of smaller countries towards the new BRICS trade settlement system will then abruptly force the dollar into a cascade. Domestic hyperinflation --ironically began by deflationary pressures-- will be the immediate result. Hunker down, boys and girls; the storm is already well above the horizon.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:09 | 5670106 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Interesting perspective.  I've always wondered what coercion was applied to get the swiss to sell their gold.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:28 | 5670208 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

Note that this also takes place at the same time as Russia turns off the gas via Ukraine, amid talk of the very real possibility that Greece will execute a disorderly exit from the EU. Enormous total strain on all markets is the inevitable result. After that, Occam's Razor points directly to the behind-the-scenes, geopolitical maneuvering.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 07:10 | 5669311 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"with the Swiss National Bank breaking its promise to maintain the 1.2 Franc/Euro peg "

first, it was a floor, not a peg. the difference can be substantial, depending if it was about keeping the currency down or up

second, the SNB did not promise to keep that floor forever

third, there is no other way to take the floor away without too much speculation then by doing it out of the blue

just saying

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 05:18 | 5669237 basho
basho's picture

only a fool that trusts what bankers, politicians,  tell him would write such an article.

and this is a 'Research' company. how naive, how childish.

phoenix = feces

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 03:41 | 5669131 Eagle Keeper
Eagle Keeper's picture

At least the Swiss still  got their guns....

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 03:35 | 5669123 HYMN
HYMN's picture

I wonder what kind of brush they'll use attempting to make this news rosy.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 03:11 | 5669092 Goldy Locks
Goldy Locks's picture

Countries' debt by currencies - any stat ?

In relationship with the recent Swiss move, I'd like to find a stat of all countries' external debt *by currencies* : having one's debt increased by 30% in a 30 minutes pop may be the first domino for some.

Does anybody know whether such a stat exists ?

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 01:33 | 5668955 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

well its a good point, suddenly they're not playing by the rules, and it makes (me) wonder if Yellen is going to do what Obama wants when he wants it, she is after all only the head of a fractitious committee. and gridlock in congress, may also apply to the FOMC. we have passed the age when the representatives all went in the back room and came out an hour later in unanimous agreement. and i think the day they can put a guy like W bush in the wh is over too. or shams like obam-a. people are tired of being fooled. the swiss took a real hit today, in the end its not like they have much to lose, China on the other hand.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 10:38 | 5669986 All is chosen
All is chosen's picture

Obama doesn't "want", he only obeys.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 23:06 | 5668468 steveo77
steveo77's picture

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2014/02/classic-one-liner-lies-of-n...

Radiation sucks, we all know there are natural radiation sources, although not that large, probably max of .5mSV per year, yet the nukists try to convince us that background radiation is 6mSv a year....factoring all the shit that is human made. Explaining the baseline lie is here.....

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/p/baseline-is-just-one-of-lies.html

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 22:06 | 5668211 JoeySandwiches
JoeySandwiches's picture

Phoenix, man, these articles are starting to get too long.  Three sentences in a paragraph? 

 

That's just not right...  I picked the wrong goddamn day to stop snorting adderall. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 21:45 | 5668121 silentsock
silentsock's picture

I'm gonna wait for the day when these

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 00:04 | 5668715 Uncle Sugar
Uncle Sugar's picture

I did that when Hugh Hendry flipped. Guess he wasn't the very last to turn.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 21:36 | 5668081 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

The look on that old crone's face, Laguarde today, on MSNBC, was classic.

Was she pissed.

•?•
V-V

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 07:42 | 5669336 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

My big hope is that these NWO control freaks start hating each other and fighting among themselves to the death!

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 21:28 | 5668043 Osmium
Osmium's picture

DOW futures down 100 right now.  Strange they would allow this to happen with Opex tomorrow.

Plus market closed on Monday.  Still waiting for someone from the FED to say something to prop this pig up.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 10:14 | 5669867 marathonman
marathonman's picture

Goldman missed their revenue targets pretty badly.  They're in the Dow 'Industrial' index now.  This should end well.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 20:59 | 5667865 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Please explain recent JPY strength if BOJ is serious about blowing out more trillion Yen.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 21:25 | 5668013 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The Yen is an external source of manipulation since the FED can play with it below the radar.....

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 20:57 | 5667858 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

90% of us are useless eaters....

 

we all gotz to go

 

:(

 

bye bye

 

:(

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 20:46 | 5667798 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture

Don't worry. Obama's Ebola czar will save the day.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:57 | 5667545 LithiumWarsWAKEUP
LithiumWarsWAKEUP's picture

We’ll find out."

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:50 | 5667513 spinone
spinone's picture

Mohamed El-Erian and Jim Grant agree

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:11 | 5667320 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Question...

is it legal or is it not legal?

if it isn't now, the bastards will do 2 things.

Ignore for a while, then change the legal status of the action.

 

 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:23 | 5667373 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Did it last time.

Banned shorts.

This time they will just close the markets, for good.

Tough if you're invested. Better luck never time.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 05:27 | 5669244 OhNo
OhNo's picture

Those busted arse aussie gold shares sure are looking good, From - oh shit fuck - to im in with a good chance here.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 07:38 | 5669329 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

Yeah my small portfolio has jumped 27% from it's horror lows, but I'm not counting any chickens with the way these Central Bank assholes can rig things. LOL!! Another 27%  and I'll be close to square.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:12 | 5670083 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

AEM is up 50% off its mid-Dec lows. 

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:10 | 5667310 db51
db51's picture

Holy Bible - Goldman Sachs Edition

Eye hath not seen, nor ear heard, neither have entered into the heart of man, the things which Lord Blankfein hath prepared for them that love him.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:08 | 5667302 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

"more than 90% of market price action is based on investors’ perceptions of what the Central Banks will do… NOT fundamentals."

Agreed.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 19:57 | 5667537 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

This whole financial system has got to go

Central banks have got to go

Money in politics has got to go

Every single violation of the Consitution has got to go

All you assholes who make a living trading stocks, bonds, FX, commodities, etc. Have got to go

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 08:48 | 5669472 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

all us investors not bad but I have gotten out of investing due to the people don't want the truth. the truth does not have a paycheck! the last guy I told what was going on in the markets and that I would take his IRA and make sure he didn't suffer the loses that were bound to happen but get a reasonable gain well his broker told him the markets were fine and up up and away they were going. to make a long story short in December 2014 I was called a conspiracy the forint and told he didn't know me and wanted to stay with the guy who lost him half his money in 08 09. so people want the lie and many investors just sell the dream and as wrong as that is who is really at fault when people don't really want the truth and .....

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 04:42 | 5669197 Global Observer
Global Observer's picture

This whole financial system has got to go

It will.

Central banks have got to go

Some will go, some will remain.

Money in politics has got to go

Will never happen.

Every single violation of the Consitution has got to go

Once the US falls apart, there won't be any constituion to violate.

All you assholes who make a living trading stocks, bonds, FX, commodities, etc. Have got to go

Some will go, some will remain.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 11:47 | 5670343 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

2 Party system of tag team has to go.

Fri, 01/16/2015 - 05:48 | 5669260 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

in the listing of violations of accurate market pricing wrought by the central authorities since the march '09 bottom, please let us never forget what is probably the most influential and pernicious: the replacement of mark to market with mark to "model" in valuing the asset portfolios of the banks too big to fail.  imo this is what turned the market, what still keeps them "solvent", and the world misinformed.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!