This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
SNB Decision: "Absolute Idiocy" Per Gartman Or "Rationality Itself" Per Saxo
This morning's decision by the Swiss National Bank has polarized the investing community. From the 'smartest men in the room' to the 'most renowned newsletter writers in the world', the reactions could not be more different...
On the one hand, Steen Jakobsen, CIO and Chief Economist at Saxo Bank:
The SNB Move Is Rationality Itself
- The SNB's move will come to be seen as rational
- Letting market decide FX levels leads to growth and prosperity
- EURCHF should end up trading around 1.000/1.0500
Travelling in Switzerland, I was as surprised as anybody by getting the call that the Swiss National Bank has removed the floor in EURCHF, this despite my earlier research piece outlining that bigger risk but not an actual removal this swiftly.
The SNB has clearly weighted the pro and cons of the floor and decided the negatives were bigger than the advantages. In the medium term and long term this will be seen as not only rational but also as the protection of long-term Swiss growth and inflation expectations. The SNB is effectively acknowledging that the business cycle needs to run its course, the artificial weak CHF had the indirect consequence of inflating an already strong real estate market and placing Swiss monetary policy at the door of ECB.
This is now neutralised and Switzerland sends a strong signal to a country like Japan that the way forward to growth and long-term prosperity is via allowing the market to dictate the currency rate. Switzerland has dealt with a stronger CHF through innovation, productivity and an extensive “Mittelstand” – SME sector.
Japan's "solution" is through exporting its problem overseas. The SNB action is full of rationality and gives hope for the markets and Main Street as accepting the business cycle up- and downside is the only way to mean revert to a better place.
I expect the EURCHF to trade around 1.000/1.0500 as fair value when all is said and done. The CHF is stronger because it is supported by a robust tax regime, an efficient and educated society and an SME sector which is constantly on the lookout for quality and education and is finally now again supported by an SNB which believes in the micro over macro by allowing the FX rate to be dictated by the market.
This does not hide the pain of the surprise for many investors and companies, but it will be a wake up call and a confirmation of our bias that 2015 is the beginning of more volatility.
And on the other hand, Dennis Gartman...
Swiss made "single worst central bank decision in 40 years of watching"
"They promised" they would keep the ceiling...
"This really is I think a silly decision on their part and it has inflicted enormous losses across the world to a great number of people,"
* * *
And on a final note, if you were wondering just how it is that Dennis Gartman - so long derided for being the ultimate contrary indicator (though living high on his oil call for now - insert blind squirel analogy here) - could somehow keep being invited back on to CNBC? Meet Courtney Gartman...
Senior Line Producer for CNBC and Dennis Gartman's daughter...
»
- 31894 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Foch U Gartman you Ponzi Pumping Prick
lol
What influences editorial decisions?
Swiss bankers are not known for idiocy.
They may be betting on German Courts to prevail over the European Court of Justice.
There may be no EU-QE next week.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/113465...
Freudian Slip of the Day: The CNBC One-Sheet.pdf at the Comcast website for CNBC advertising inquiries http://www.comcastspotlight.com/network/cnbc is actually for Comedy Central.
Easy mistake.
Blame North Korea in 5...4...3....
Gartman- "But I was promised!" Fucking high end welfare queen. You think I should sign up for his $29.95 newsletter? Oh, gosh, yes!
<------- CNBC is run by a bunch of idiots and the daughters of idiots
<------- CNBC hacked by ISIS or North Korea
Comcast got this one right , CNBC is part of Comedy Central lol
"How could somehow keep being invited back on to CNBC?"
it implies if it was not for ms. gartman, CNBC would otherwise make a different choice??? uhhmmm.... might want to check your facts ...
Well, he does what his tribe can do best.
The Chutzpah of these noses is unique: Fartman says, it's a huge loss for the Swiss.
Now let's have a look at the facts:
By vocal intervention (0.83 CHFEUR not higher) they were able to hold this level by printing roughly 80 bn CHF and buying foreign assets, like European and German shares (= good, profitable companies).
Now by removing this vocal intervention, the CHF is immediately revalued higher. What does that mean? It means that the words of the SNB pressed the CHF down and now, since this artificial and virtual force is lifted, the CHF revalues and the Swiss can print even more CHF and buy even more foreign assets to reach a lower level of their currency.
Fartman says that White was Black. He claims, that the better and more solvent national economy was SUFFERING, if it's currency was perceived as better and stronger...
Ofcourse a stronger currency also creates problems. For example for the exporting companies. But that creates the pressure on them to become more competitive, which leads to higher productivity - compared to companies in countries of weak currencies, where the currency is always devaluated to keep the economy afloat!
So IMO the SNB finally has come to it's senses and regained it's freedom: if they want, they can print another 80 bn CHF and buy foreign stocks! Stocks that pay dividends and which are ownership of real companies with real value. And they can decide how much they want to print and how they deem CHFEUR useful for their economy and their nation.
The worst decision of a CB in the last 40 years? Sure Shlomo!
Gentlmen: The day of co-ordinates move by central banksters is over! Yipee! About fucking time. The Swiss know that any one of the PIIGS, France, Japan, China, Russia, or even Amerika is set to implode. They just want some distance.
Gartman lives in Virginia Beach, VA. That area is an armpit - po people live there.
NoVa
He probably lives in one of those beach side houses south of the strip, not like regular folk over in Norfolk and along the bay...
I thought Gartman would make a great cartoon. Something like Garfield... you know, a fat orange cat and all. The name it's half way there already...
Think you'e wrong there.
There were not known for idiocy but over the last few decades they've slowly slid down the slope and are no different from all the other CB wankers.
If Fartman thinks it's stupid, they made the right move.
The SNB are just correcting a mistake they made in 2011 ...
"...said Gunnar Beck, a German legal theorist at the University of London."
Moehah, i read terrorist.
Right. More likely, inside info. If so, a Grexit can't be too far behind.
What a handsome family.
/s
Well fed anyway.
The muppets need to get the signal collectively. Thank you, CNBC.
Gartman-What a dickweed
LUUUUUUUCY; I'M HOME !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guess Dennis got Greeked.
I wonder how much he lost?
Not enough
Gartman lost "1 unit", which everyone knows is code for $1,000 simulation trading dollars.
Dennis got Gnomed.
Live by the Gnome, die by the Gnome.
Swiss franc going the way of the dodo. Swiss euro in 3-2-1????.
Speaking of idiots...thanks.
ha!
If Gartman knows anything it's idiocy.
Steen Jakobsen or Gartman. let me think; sorry Dennis, you lose
It will be found out later that CNBC was financed by the Fed as a pro-economy mouthpiece. They didn't have the money to keep going as a viable entity so the Fed/Treasury cut them a deal. Be our RA-RA mouthpiece and we'll pay your salaries.
There can be no other explanation for the pure baloney these people spew forth.
Isn't NBC owned by GE? And doesn't the brown clown have his tongue up GE's fartbox, even appointing their minions to "business" advisory posts in his wonderful administration?
Loop-de-loop with the money train.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3I211f0pz9s&dbk
The Swiss have removed themselves from the liquidity trap circle jerk. Had "extraordinary measures" and "coordinated action" worked, then the peg makes sense - but as we can all clearly see, it didn't work. The time for short term thinking is over, and the Swiss know it.
The death of the Swiss economy. All what is going to be left are banks and hedge funds.
What the fuck are you talking about?! If you don't print money, you die?? That's an asinine assumption in the extreme.
@ DeeplyIndebted: The Swiss just saved their nation. They decided not to allow themselves to continued getting screwed by the psychopaths who run the EU.
If you are a tourist destination like Switzerland and most people from Europe can´t afford doing holidays in your country anymore you die. If you are a export country of equipment and tools like Switzerland you die because people around the globe buy those things elsewhere much cheaper. And if no one, including the Suiss shops at your retail shops and gas pumps in Switzerland anymore, because they just drive a few miles over the next EU border and get the same stuff for 30% or 40% less you die too. Seems you are clueless about Europe like so many `Muricans.
Clueless? I may be, but I'm not shortsighted. I won't say your short term analysis is inaccurate either - it's not. But who's going to give a shit 20 or 50 years from now?
Swiss tourism is extremely upscale. Probably will not have too much of an effect. Already costs twice for a ski vacation there vs. Austria or France.
The fairy tale of Switzerland "depending" on its tourism industry is really... nailed to the perch.
When do the drones start flying over Geneva?
We had to drone some folks.
If Courtney grew a beard like daddy's, it might hide one of those chins.
I now know who has been raiding my birdfeeder!
Now I am positive they did the right thing...
The SNB is effectively acknowledging that the business cycle needs to run its course.
So after they lose billions, as anyone with half a brain knew they would (just not when), they decide that after all it's better to let the market decide the price.
You listening there Forrest Gump accented Janet Yellon? Nope, I thought not. Still, at least we can probably guarantee she's not looking at porn in the Eccles building unlike probably most of the men.
I dont often buy the idea that CB's are 'stupid" or ignorant.. or any such thing. Its all contrived theater imho.
but gartman
ya.. hes not crafty, or theatrical. nope. just one fo the few actual idiots in this space..
Courtney Gartman??
Holy shit, the fix is in!!
Long nepotism.
So... CNBC news is really just Gartman's book talking.
What is this thing called a a Gartman?
It is a policy instituted by financial "news" networks to lower ratings.
Isn't that the fat kid on South Park? Looks like him anyway........hmmm, sounds like him too.
"Respect mai authoritai!!!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1vKDM7wfiA
... >>> "What is this thing called a a Gartman?"
... Gabby Asshole Running Twisted Measureless Apotropaic Negativism ...
it's a gartman gps, tells you what your position should be but it's always wrong.
The best part was the admission that a central bank can make money out of 'the thinnest of air'. Gartman is upset they stopped doing that..... Tell you all you need to know about the US market.
"The SNB is effectively acknowledging that the business cycle needs to run its course"
Said no central banker ever. Something's up. This is a cover story, I'll put $20 real cash money on it.
"Letting market decide FX levels leads to growth and prosperity"
We should get around to having a market, they sound really beneficial.
Extremist! We got an extremist here!
Since the Swiss signed up to FATCA it was curtains for the economy anyway. CHF now backed by cheese, overpriced watches and cuckhoo clocks.
I guess Gartman was on the wrong side of the CHF/EURO.
Know-all = fuck-all.
The Swiss knew they were going to have to buy trillions of new Euros to keep the 1.20 peg..and they just cant do it....they would have had more Euros than Swiss Marks.....not a good thing....take the pain now...adapt...and move on...we will see in two years this means nothing...
"Swiss Marks" ?
Hmmmpff. How about Swiss francs ?
Gartman should hang himself...do it, you monkey!
Gartman is talking his book.
Wrong side of CHF Gartman? Here - catch this boat anchor to keep afloat. Fucking asshole - take that!!!
I thought k Kardashian was thin again, and why in hell is she trolling with gartman anyway?
Holy Fuck that fat retard Gartman was allowed to reproduce?
That statement/question could be applied to a large portion of the American population.
Old "kiss of death" Gartman.
Some call him "the Joker".
It's good that God gave him a fool's face.
I've followed Gartman for at least 9 years. Gartman is correct, Gartman is an absolute idiot. Always has been, always will be. He was wrong 100 times on his gold predictions starting at below $500. A total fucking wrong trade play, much like Cramer. CNBC is full of shitty commentators. The fucking real estate idiots on there weekly are the same dipshits that staked their reputations on real estate never going down in 2005-6. It was comical to watch for those of us with half a brain. Any idiot could see that wasn't going to end well. I sold all of my real estate holdings in early 2005. Maybe a year too early, but I've tripled the money since.
The next big play will be end of the financial system as we know it. No way around it. 10,000 people retiring a DAY in the US and claiming SS. That's unaffordable unless the dollar is worth less, much less.
btw... what happens to the 700'000 Poles that have mortgages denominated in CHF? And other assorted Eastern Europeans that have similar arrangements?
how do you feel when your mortgage is suddently 10-15% more expensive? with a chance of becoming even more so?
People taking mortgages in a different currency have only got themselves to blame as they open themselves to currency fluctuation instead of only interest rate risk.
Not only Poles ... Italians, Austrians, Hungarians, and so on. This will not be pretty for many.
Never wipe ur ass with someone else's paper.
My take is that it was just plain old bidless; there was absolutely nothing down there, that should have dawned on people by now, so i would expect a bigger bounce.
How could the Swiss public have lost out if their currency is worth at least 10% more versus the dollar and the euro overnight? The Swiss National Bank has lost out as it has hundreds of billions in euros but not the average Swiss citizen.
the swiss public loses because swiss cheese exports become more expensive. let them eat jarlsberg! the horror! the horror!
It'll probably makes Rolexes priced out of the reach of many.
CNBC is an example of Propaganga by Goldman Sachs used against the people of the United States of America and shows how wretched fake media is. Doesn't a more expensive currency mean the the Swiss can buy more gold now than yesterday. What's wrong with that.
Yep, fake as hell, The Matrix is coming apart........
In todays society fools are celebrated and given plenty of airtime as long as they are 'on message'.
Do as I "say"... But never, "Do" as I "Do" Unless you have "permission"!
So if the CHF/EUR exchange rate stabilizes at 1.00 does that mean there really is no longer a peg?
His daughter is a lot cuter than I would expect.
Gartman really wanted to say:
Normally my Central Banker friends give me some insider information in advance of these type of actions. I could have made a killing. Instead they announced it without warning and my pants were already around my ankles.
"They gave no indication they would do it"... errr and why do they need to? So everyone can front run it? Please, grow up Gartman.
Lol, yeah Swiss just destroyed their export sector.
They have an export sector?
Of course they have an export sector. They dominate the world in the production and distribution of CooCoo Clocks.
Knives, cheese and hot cocoa
Eagerly anticipating the forthcoming suicides, en masse, of scorched FX traders and hedge fund gurus who erroneously thought Swiss exporters had sufficient clout to prevent such a move. That 30% move was a result of frantic short covering bids. Some will wait it out anticipating a bounce in the EUR but it will be sold into and they'll end up taking it deeper in the ass as the reality of what is happening sets in.
who knows, EUR/USD could bounce, it's very crowded in here and very oversold atm...fundamentally, we're still looking at 8 years of QE in US and 0 years of QE in Europe
I bet his eyes started looking in different directions after a margin call
drag out gartman.
throw him a biscuit
and listen to him bark.
when is the last time this turkey said anything
Swiss made "single worst central bank decision in 40 years of watching"
Translation - the dirty goyim bastards didn't let me know ahead of time so I could front run it.
This wil prove to be the standard for all the other tit-sucking countries if they want a chance of coming clean and starting over rather than prolonging the suffering.
CNBC = Currency Nudging B*tches Club
Gartman and other who may have their arses handed back to them should just stand quietly in their corners. What's worse is sore loser of a money manager/trader.
The game carries no CB guarantee. Any novice trader knows it.