Why Our Central Planners Are Breeding Failure

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via Peak Prosperity,

Success, we’re constantly told, breeds success. And success breeds stability. The way to avoid failure is to copy successful people and strategies. The way to continue succeeding is to do more of what has been successful.

This line of thinking is so intuitively compelling that we wonder what other basis for success can there be other than 'success'?

As counter-intuitive as it may sound, success rather reliably leads to failure and destabilization. Instead, it’s the close study of failure and the role of luck that leads to success.

In the macro-economic arena, I think it highly likely that the monetary and fiscal policies of the past six years that are conventionally viewed as successful will lead to spectacular political and financial failures in 2015 and 2016.

How can success breed failure?  It turns out there are a number of dynamics at work.

Survivorship Bias

Survivorship Bias is the natural tendency to look at the survivors for the keys to success rather than to examine those who didn’t survive, many of which disappear without a trace. If 100 restaurants are founded and five of the new eateries achieve rip-roaring success, business schools usually study the decisions and strategies of the five survivors, not the 95 failures which closed their doors and left no trail of decisions and strategies to study.

As David McRaney observes in his excellent account of survivorship bias, by focusing solely on survivors rather than those who failed, the causes of failure become invisible. And if the causes of failure are invisible, the critical factors that determine success also become invisible.

Even worse, we draw faulty conclusions from the decisions of the survivors, as we naturally assume their decisions led to success, when the success might have been the result of luck or a confluence of factors that cannot be reasonably duplicated.

We are often reassured by the financially successful that perseverance and the willingness to accept risk are the key factors in success.  But as McRaney explains, this is the equivalent of asking the one actor from a rural state who achieved Hollywood stardom for the key factors of his success, on the assumption that anyone else following the same path will reach stardom.

But magazines never track down the 100 other aspiring actors from the same region who went to Hollywood and persevered and took risks but who failed to become stars. Examining the few hundred miners who succeeded in finding enough gold in the Klondike in 1898 and returning with enough of their newfound wealth to make a difference in their life prospects while ignoring the experiences and decisions of the 100,000 who set off for the gold fields and the 30,000 who reached the Klondike but who returned home penniless (if they survived the harsh conditions) will yield a variety of false conclusions, for luck is never introduced as the deciding factor.

The narrative that success breeds success has no role for luck, which is by definition semi-random and therefore uncorrelated to the stratagems of the survivors. Here is McRaney’s summary of the role of luck:

In short, the advice business is a monopoly run by survivors. As the psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, “A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.” The things a great company like Microsoft or Google or Apple did right are like the (World War II) planes with bullet holes in the wings. The companies that burned all the way to the ground after taking massive damage fade from memory. Before you emulate the history of a famous company, Kahneman says, you should imagine going back in time when that company was just getting by and ask yourself if the outcome of its decisions were in any way predictable. If not, you are probably seeing patterns in hindsight where there was only chaos in the moment. He sums it up like so, “If you group successes together and look for what makes them similar, the only real answer will be luck.”

Drawing Over-Arching Conclusions from Single Examples

A similar form of bias appears when commentators attribute China’s great developmental success to its command economy, or Silicon Valley’s enduring role as a center of innovation to America’s military-industrial-academic-research complex and the U.S. culture’s broad acceptance of risk-taking.

Who can say with certainty that another model of development might have duplicated China’s growth record but avoided the endemic corruption, environmental destruction and widening wealth inequality that are the negative consequences of the command-economy model?  No one can say, as there are no other Chinas to refer to for comparison.

If duplicating Silicon Valley were just a matter of government support of research and close ties between corporations and universities, there would be dozens of Silicon Valley rivals, as billions of dollars have been expended globally to duplicate the Silicon Valley model. But Silicon Valley remains in a class of its own.  Clearly, Northern California’s engine of innovation cannot be distilled down to a simplistic model that can be duplicated by policies and investment.

The conventional conclusion that the major central banks—the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of China—succeeded in saving the global economy from depression in 2008-09 is another example of drawing over-arching conclusions about success from single examples.

Since each nation/region is unique, any claim that the policies of any one central bank can be applied to other nations/regions with equivalent success is a highly questionable assumption.  Since there is only one European Union, Japan, China and U.S.A., there are no opportunities to test the assumption that the central bank recipe used in 2008-09 can be applied with equal success in future financial crises in these very different economies.

Previous Policies Have Changed Conditions

One reason we cannot draw over-arching conclusions about the drastic monetary policies enacted in 2008-09 is that those policies have changed the financial-political landscape. As a result, what worked in 2008-09 may not succeed in the next financial crisis because those policies only worked in the specific set of conditions of that crisis. If the conditions have changed, then the strategies that were 'successful' in the previous set of conditions will not yield the same outcome.

For example, central banks lowered interest rates to near-zero in 2008-09 to spark borrowing and refinancing of existing debt. Now that rates are still near-zero, this policy and outcome cannot be duplicated.  Lessons drawn from successes that cannot be repeated are suspect.

Previously successful policies may fail in the next crisis due to diminishing returns: for example, policies that extend credit to marginal borrowers to bring demand forward (i.e. subprime auto loans) eventually reach all but the riskiest borrowers.  Extending those policies essentially guarantees rising defaults as people with no business borrowing money are given credit to maintain consumption.

As defaults soar, lenders record losses and sales decline, as consumption was already brought forward.

Due to diminishing returns, a policy that was successful at first fails when extended.

In effect, successful policies may be time-stamped; not only do they only work in specific circumstances, they only work for a limited length of time in those specific conditions. Beyond those conditions and timeline, the supposed factors of success no longer work.

Are the Outcomes of Monetary Policies Truly Predictable?

As noted above, any policy identified as the difference between success and failure must pass a basic test: When the policy is applied, is the outcome predictable?  For example, if central banks inject liquidity and buy assets (quantitative easing) in the next financial crisis, will those policies duplicate the results seen in 2008-14?

The current set of fiscal and monetary policies pursued by central banks and states are all based on lessons drawn from the Great Depression of the 1930s. The successful (if slow and uneven) “recovery” since the 2008-09 global financial meltdown is being touted as evidence that the key determinants of success drawn from the Great Depression are still valid: the Keynesian (or neo-Keynesian) policies of massive deficit spending by central states and extreme monetary easing policies by central banks.

Are the present-day conditions identical to those of the Great Depression? If not, then how can anyone conclude that the lessons drawn from that era will be valid in an entirely different set of conditions?

We need only consider Japan’s remarkably unsuccessful 25-year pursuit of these policies to wonder if the outcomes of these sacrosanct monetary and fiscal policies are truly predictable, or whether the key determinants of macro-economic success and failure have yet to be identified.

The Seeds of Failure Are Sown in the Initial Flush of Success

Even more troubling is the possibility that these monetary policies have sown the seeds of systemic failure in their pursuit of the extremes that yielded the initial flush of success.

That this initial success might be brief and transitory rather than enduring is rarely considered.  If this is the case—and the slowing global “recovery” suggests this is indeed so—then the success of these extreme policies is illusory, and the truly key determinants of success and failure remain elusive.

In Part 2: The 6 Reasons The Next Economic Rescue Will Fail, we examine why the current unstable "recovery" must topple despite the central planners' best efforts to sustain it. They simply don't have an accurate awareness of the true situation, nor have the right tools and skills to address it -- and so, in their ignorance and fear, are pulling levers that are inconsequential (at best) or will hasten the destabilization of the system.

Click here to access Part 2 of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access)

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junction's picture

Dean Vernon Wormer: 0.2... Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Nice tie!  Is that a clip-on?  Did your mom buy you that?

Lets Buy The Dip's picture

lol hell yes. 

This down move on the market looks to be a conjob to get everyone short. then u guys know what comes next? right?.....

have a look at this SHOCKING chart breaking down Chart here ==> http://bit.ly/1B4K0wk

doctor10's picture

there's a reason we were all pissed off at that 8th grade control freak girl who was so bossy!! She runs most governments today

LawsofPhysics's picture

Devolution...

the consequences of not allowing there to be real consequences for bad behavior...

yogibear's picture

Good for the small people that the central planners are destroying themselves.

It will hurt the people on top worse than the small people.

boattrash's picture

Other than breeding failure, they only know how to breed young girls, and even younger boys. Central Planners...

Matthew John's picture

We QE'd some folks... to infinity.

deeply indebted's picture

I thought is was "fake it 'till you make it."

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Surviving relies on making good decisions and hard choices and the government and the banking system have previously demonstrated the ability to do neither, which is what got us into this mess in the first place. Not to worry though, they promise not to fuck up this time...

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Draghi in a coma, I know, I know it's serious
Yellen in a coma, I know, I know it's really serious
There were times when I could have murdered her
But now, I’d hate for anything to happen to them:
Let them see what they’ve wrought
Do you think they gave ‘Plan B’ a thought?

Let them try their last stimuli
This time it's serious …

Karaio's picture

I believe that most ZH's are as follows:

9 Signs that you are an old soul:

1. You tend to be a loner.

Because old souls are uninterested in the activities and interests of people in their age group, they think it is unfortunate to make friends with people who have difficulties to relate, the result is ... Old souls tend to find themselves alone most of the time, people just do not relate to them.

2. Do you love the knowledge, wisdom and truth.

Yes ... That seems a bit too grand and noble, but the old soul is naturally gravitating to the intellectual side of life, old souls inherently understand that knowledge is power, wisdom is happiness and the truth is freedom, then by not seek these things? These activities are more meaningful to them than reading about the latest gossip about the latest boyfriend of a famous or the latest football results.

3. You are spiritually inclined.

post-07-12-4Velhas souls are more emotional and tend to have sensitive and spiritual natures overcome the limits of the ego, seek enlightenment, promote love and peace are the main activities of these young in body of Mother Teresa, for they seem more rewarding wise use of time.

4. Do you understand the transience of life.

Old souls are often plagued with memories not only of their own mortality but everything and everyone around you, it makes the old soul be cautious and sometimes withdraws, but wisely said the way they live their lives.

5. You are thoughtful and introspective.

Old souls tend to think a lot about everything, its ability to reflect and learn from their actions and those of others is your greatest teacher in life, a reason why the souls feel both the heart is because they have learned many lessons through their own thought processes and have much knowledge about life situations by their silence capacity and watching closely what is going on around you.

6. You see the bigger picture.

Rarely old souls are lost in superficial details getting useless degrees, job promotions, busts and tributes on TV, old souls tend to look at life from a panoramic sight seeing which is the most sensible and meaningful way to address the life, when faced with old issues souls tend to see them as temporary and passing pain that only serve to increase the amount of joy felt in the future, therefore, old souls tend to be placid, stable nature, as a result of his approach to life.

7. You are not materialistic.

Wealth, status, fame, and the latest version of iPhone are a burden to the old souls, the old soul do not see the purpose of pursuing things that can easily be taken from among them also the souls have little time and interest the things of short duration in life, as they often contain little meaning or lasting satisfaction with them.

8. You were a strange boy socially maladaptive.

This is not always the case, but many souls have strange signs of maturity in young people, often these children are labeled as "early," "introverted" or "rebels", failing to fit in traditional behaviors, often these children are extremely curious and intelligent seeing the futility of many things your teachers, parents and colleagues say and passively or aggressively resist them, if you can speak to your son / daughter as if he / she were an adult, you probably have a old soul in her care.

9. You just "feels" age.

Before you put a name to what I felt experienced some sensations of simply being an "elder" inside, the feelings that come with being an old soul usually are: a sense of global mistrust, mental fatigue, vigilant patience and calm highlighted unfortunately, this can often be perceived as coldness, which is just one of the many myths regarding an old soul.

As well as some old people are described as "young at heart", also young people can be "old heart".

:-)

boattrash's picture

Karaio,

I have no idea how this will copy/paste. I hope it works, some of wifey's astrology work from the 11th. It sure rings true today.

January 11, 2015

France
: Be Careful What You Wish For

The chart below shows the configuration of the heavens on the day of the Charlie Hebdo Massacre in Paris, with particular emphasis on the Double Boomerang pointing to Moon and Jupiter. This Double Boomerang contacted some very sensitive and volatile energetic points in the natal charts of France - points that have characterized France’s evolution as a republic.

What has recently transpired in France

raises concerns, as powerful latent energies are activated.  And the Double Boomerang has quite a bit of life on it - at least another couple months, at which point it will get caught up not only in the powerful geocosmic signatures of the seventh Uranus-Pluto Square (U-Plu VII) and the Lunar Eclipse Tetrad (Blood Moon III), but of the 2015 Grand Fire Trine (2015 GFT) as well.

Double Boomerang of January 7, 2015

Key

Planets/Points

 Sun
 Moon                                                  
 Mercury
 Venus
 Mars
 Jupiter
 Saturn
t Chiron
 Uranus
 Neptune
 Pluto
 Moon's South Node rs

Signs

 Aries
 Leo
 Sagittarius
 Capricorn
 Aquarius
 Pisces

Technicals (by chart line color):

  1. Highlighted in red - the Leo/Aquarius Axis emphasized by planetary placement, e.g., Moon and Jupiter at the top of the chart in Leo opposing (180 dg) Mercury, Venus and Mars in Aquarius at the bottom. This opposition is the focus of the Boomerang.
  2. Highlighted in brown - also in the bottom of the chart, we see an array of planets on either side of the opposition forming 150 dg angles (quincunxes) to Moon and Jupiter: Sun and Pluto in Capricorn on the one hand; and Neptune and Chiron in Pisces on the other. These form the wings of the Boomerang.
  3. Highlighted in blue - we see the other two elements of the 2015 GFT – Saturn in early Sagittarius plus Uranus and the Moon's South Node (aka the Dragon’s Tail) in Aries – forming trines (120 dg) to Moon in Leo. 

It is a highly tense configuration and, as can be seen in the charts below, it falls right on sensitive points in historical France's charts, as stated above. That is, it falls right on the Leo/Aquarius Axis, which is emphasized by planetary placement in both the chart of the First Republic and the chart of the Fifth Republic.  

The First Republic - September 22, 1792

Key:     Uranus    Leo 
             Pluto    Aquarius us       
There is a lot going on in the chart above, but for our purposes here and highlighted in red, the exact opposition of Uranus in Leo (top of the chart) and Pluto in Aquarius (bottom of the chart) is the focus. This would have occurred at the height of the French Revolution and, indeed, I can not imagine a more revolutionary meeting of planets.  Electric, rebellious Uranus in fiery, fixed Leo - Leo, the lion, the king, the heart - being itself enough to indicate monumental change in the central government of France, which, at that time, of course, was an actual monarchy (very Leonine).  With transformative Pluto exactly opposite in airy, fixed, revolutionary Aquarius (Uranus' own sign, the water bearer, embodying the concept of Liberte! Egalite! Fraternite!), it became a  fait accompli, as it were.

Uranus and Pluto in hard aspect to one another indicate the potential for extremism and dogmatism that can manifest in a particularly ruthless manner. There are no distinctions made between innocent and guilty, good and bad, truth and falsehood. Everyone and everything gets swept up in the furor.

That potential certainly crystallized in revolutionary France as the storming of the Bastille, the Reign of Terror, the advent of the guillotine, and the Thermidorean Reaction.   Under the Uranus-Pluto opposition in Leo and Aquarius, the French Revolution ate its own children. Since the latent energy thereof is being activated now, the French people would be wise to look at and understand their history as soberly and objectively as possible.  Although, I must say, those two traits - sobriety and objectivity - may not be their their strongest suit as a people!

The Fifth Republic - October 6, 1958


Key:  Uranus    Leo 
      t Chiron    Aquarius

166 years (two years shy of two full cycles of Uranus) after the French Revolution, as the Fifth Republic was constituted, we again find the Leo/Aquarius Axis emphasized by planetary placement, with Uranus returned to Leo and not Pluto but Chiron in Aquarius. This time, however, Leo (the king, the central government) is placed below the horizon and Aquarius (Liberte! Egalite! Fraternite!) above. 

Chiron in a personal chart represents a childhood wounding. Thus, in the chart of a nation, it would indicate a national wounding in the nation's early years.  Further, since the Fifth Republic Chiron is close to where the First Republic Pluto was, I interpret the Fifth Republic Chiron in Aquarius as indicative of a national wounding connected with the First Republic Pluto in Aquarius and the violent excesses of the French Revolution in the name of liberty, equality and fraternity. That wounding is expressed as a deep, sort of latent, antagonism toward central government, which results in a constant state of upheaval (Uranus) of central government (Leo). Hence, the Five Republics.

Double Boomerang of February 3, 2015


Key

Planets/Points

 Sun
 Moon                                                  
 Mercury
 Venus
 Mars
 Jupiter
 Saturn
Chiron
 Uranus
 Neptune
 Pluto
 Moon's South Node 
rs
Signs
 Aries
 Leo
 Sagittarius
 Capricorn
 Aquarius
 Pisces

Technicals (by chart line color):

1)  Highlighted in red
-  Moon and Jupiter in Leo opposite Sun and Mercury retrograde in Aquarius.

2)  Highlighted in brown
- an array of planets on either side of the opposition forming 150 dg angles (quincunxes) to Moon and Jupiter: Pluto in Capricorn on the one hand; and Neptune,  Venus,  Chiron and Mars forming a stellium in Pisces on the other hand. (More on that Pisces Stellium later.  It's a biggie this year.)

3)  Highlighted in blue - a trine to Moon from Saturn in Sagittarius; and to Moon and Jupiter from Uranus and the South Node (aka the Dragon's Tail) in Aries. Thus, all the components of the 2015 Grand Fire Trine are represented.

4)  Highlighted in gray - the shadow of the Grand Cardinal Cross, composed of U-Plu VII and Blood Moon III.

So, this Boomerang is ongoing and will have several iterations, with a further one occurring in March that I haven't looked at yet. If the events that occurred under the January Boomerang are any indication, France could be in for more trouble as we move toward the February Boomerang.

*Note about Jupiter's placement in Leo: in the present-day charts, it is moving between the emphasized degrees of the Leo/Aquarius Axis in the historical charts.

  • In the First Republic chart, Uranus is placed at the 21st degree of Leo and Pluto at the 21st degree of Aquarius.  In the January Boomerang chart, Jupiter is at the 21st degree of Leo, exactly conjunct the First Republic Uranus and opposite the First Republic Pluto.
  • In the February Boomerang chart, Jupiter, currently retrograde, has moved back to the 18th degree of Leo, which is very close to the Fifth Republic Uranus (15 Leo) and the Fifth Republic Chiron (17 Aquarius).  The degree positions of the other planets involved in the Boomerang reflect a synchronous movement through the emphasized degrees of the historical charts.


Spring 2015: Uranus-Pluto VII and Blood Moon III to the Fifth Republic Chart

The Fifth Republic, with cardinal placements emphasized:

Key

Planets/Points

 Sun
 Moon                                                  
 Mercury
 Venus
 Moon's North Node
 Moon's South Node
 Ascendant rs

Signs

 Aries
 Cancer
 Libra
 Capricorn

Briefly, France has an interesting complex of cardinal placements, most notably Sun and Mercury at 12 and 13 Libra, as well as Aries rising, that put it squarely in the path of U-Plu VII and Blood Moon III. The Dragon's Head and Tail (the Moon's North and South Nodes) are also in Aries-Libra.  The significance of this is that all four of the Blood Moons (which are Sun-Moon oppositions) take place in Aries-Libra. There is much energy collected by now in those two signs.

And if you peek back at the February Boomerang, you'll see the Cross just looming there in the background.  It's going to come down on France's chart pretty hard. 

The overarching point here is this:  the timing of the terrorist attacks in France and the reaction to them (one of which appears to be, oddly enough, a crackdown on internet free speech by western governments - go figure  ) suggests that related events will continue and intensify into Uranus-Pluto VII and Blood Moon III of 03/16/15 and 04/04/15, respectively.  If history is any guide, these events won't be limited to France, either, but will spread, probably throughout Europe.  And we know what happens when Europe becomes unstable....

In closing, here is a picture from a recent article describing the Paris Unity Rallies:

All I can say is, be careful what you wish for...

 

 

 

 

 

Radical Marijuana's picture

boattrash,

I believe the following to be so:

France recorded the time of birth,

as well as the date of birth, hence,

scientists interested astrology were

able to use French data, & surprise,

there were statistically significant

correlations between the careers

and astrological charts of people.

Guys like Rupert Sheldrake, amongst many others, have tried to make more scientific experiments, and generally found that the results were NOT random. Hah, apparently even the best kinds of "random number generators" have failed to be random. The abstract theory that everything is connected seems sound, but the particulars are obviously wide-open to debate. But nevertheless, I have always found that the more I looked into "spooky stuff" the more plausible it became, despite that, personally, I have NEVER had any kinds of first-hand knowledge or direct experiences of any of that kind of stuff ...

One of the stranger apparent facts, as I understand them, was the the Earth's magnetic field behaved strangely immediately before the events that transpired on 9/11/2001.

...recall Braden's assertions
about Earth's magnetic field
during the 9/11/2001 events:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRQeIsfQtE4

Gregg Braden on consciousness

?????????????????????????????

Also, video confirms that Earth's

magnetics changed around 9/11:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3_Rg7yoMsE

"I Am HAARP" - GAIA Consciousness

watch that at around 2 minute mark ...

boattrash's picture

RM, I enjoy your posts. Yes it's uncanny, but I have seen her work charts on me for many years, and the accuracy is amazing. Many times she has gone back "after the fact" and the charts verified my gut instincts to the letter, even without her knowing my basis on making certain decisions.

It's too bad that the charts would not post, as they were very well done.

Now, if I could just get her to work on those Power Ball numbers.

All jokes aside, she stresses, that her work shows potentials, but they do coalesce into events/realities.

old naughty's picture

boattrash,

thanks for sharing...can you put the chart on flicker and post the link here?

any astro-sight on USA?

boattrash's picture

old naughty, Quite welcome. Will try to do that tomorrow, I'll look into flicker. as i've been wanting a place/method to post her work.

Equality 7-25-1's picture

Take your horoscope mafs and be lame somewhere else.

kchrisc's picture

"Why Our Central Planners Are Breeding Failure"

The do not "breed failure," they steal the success of others.

The banksters need to repay us.

 

Show 'em you care: Erect a Liberty Pole in your front yard, and a guillotine in the back.

Oldwood's picture

You have it wrong....the bankers need to be repaid....harshly

Seasmoke's picture

How 2008 didn't wake up EVERYONE, is a great mystery to me !!!

Cloud9.5's picture

What we think we know may be more dangerous than what we don't know.

Karaio's picture

Blah blah blah ...

This asshole has a short memory.

All that is being tried in the EU was used in the late 1970s early 1980s in economies of South America.

I am a product they tested, I'm 52 years old and I have no home.

My children have, my nephews have.

Most of those born in the next generation after the mine has more assets that this old man here.

In the 1980s there was even a joke:

Who does not inherit not out of the shit.

Who did not receive inheritance when the father dies're fucked.

On the other hand, the other generations that have goods are pecking (like birds) in mobile phones, do not even know what it is for a book unless lack toilet paper in the bathroom.

An old saying states that:

Opportunity is like a horse that goes at a gallop.

Or you ride it then or since was.

This can be understood as luck or survival instinct.

Thank God know what a book.

 

hehe.

Wilcox1's picture

The post captures the essence of herd, flock, hive, school, method of existence. It works great for the individuals until a large external factor identifies the charade and swallows it whole for lunch.

hooligan2009's picture

the end is nigh...QE has failed, even other emperors know that emperors have no clothes and they just look plain stupid...

here's a sign of the beyond SNB times...when does a central bank give a shit about fifteen billion dollars? answer....never

spot the chnage in the week overall v explain what you did and why you did it in the component pieces...

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma/sysopen_accholdings.html

next question...why shouldn't 15 million people (5% of the country) be enitled to a random pay off of $1,000 this week (15 billion dollars)?

we are not only living in interesting times, we are (this year) watching the year that central banks are shown to be those people who say that an entire countries work ethic has no value, when in fact it is all about work ethic and doing the right thing so you can get rewarded later in life WITHOUT some ahole in an ivory tower sayng "hey, look at what I just did"

...

blindman's picture

all based on fiat, flim with

a dash of flam,  screw the people,

no? 

Radical Marijuana's picture

The article above does not focus on the primary contradiction manifested behind:

"Success, we’re constantly told, breeds success.

And success breeds stability."

The relatively simplicity and antiquity of the book by Sun Tzu on the Art of War makes it one of the most important to contemplate. It starts by stating that success in war depends upon deceit, and ends by stating that spies are the most important soldiers. Civilizations and states were made by the history warfare selecting for what survived through the crucible of conflicts. As power blends into information, so then the War Kings morphed into the Fraud Kings.

Neolithic Civilizations are social pyramid systems based on "successfully" backing up lies with violence, which is why central banks are based on controlling the ENFORCED FRAUDS, which are the foundation of our political economy. The paradoxical nature of social successes based on being able to develop more and more sophisticated systems of social slavery, through systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, drives society as a whole to become more and more criminally insane.

The article above is classic Zero Hedge fare, since it grossly underestimates the degree to which society is being controlled by the principles and methods of organized crime, whose "success" creates the greatest possible instability, due to its profound contradictions that successfully being able to control civilization through being able to back up bigger lies, with more violence, inevitably drives that society as a whole to become too criminally insane to be able to cope with that problem by anything that can operate within its own frame of reference!

For instance, the article above referred to this:

"We need only consider Japan’s remarkably unsuccessful 25-year pursuit of these policies to wonder if the outcomes of these sacrosanct monetary and fiscal policies are truly predictable, or whether the key determinants of macro-economic success and failure have yet to be identified."

To me that is another goofy, implicit use of Hanlon's Razor, to presume that there was some incompetence or stupidity behind the example of Japan, while it was actually the result of a malicious plan, ruthlessly carried through.

Consider this video, recently featured on Zero Hedge:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy

An hour & a half long documentary about the monetary system in Japan since WWII, with some conclusions comparing that history to other central bank behavior: INSIDE JOB DRIVEN CRISES.

That video shows its main contributor gradually going through the intellectual processes, over the course of several decades, of better and better understanding the ways that the Bank of Japan was OUTRAGEOUSLY EVIL, in ways that he initially could not comprehend nor accept, until the FACTS became so blatantly obvious, that those could finally no longer be avoided, as the obvious conclusions, supported by the life-time of experiences based on study of that history.

Personally, I find it hard to imagine how Hugh-Smith can keep on appearing to be so superficial and sophomoric in his attitudes towards the banksters, despite having apparently spent do much time studying them! His articles tend to swing wildly from being interesting, to being surprisingly naive, because of that!

CENTRAL BANKS are the core of established systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS. Almost everyone else gets screwed by those runaway frauds, while only a few benefit (at least in the short-term), from the frauds of banksters being enforced by governments.

ACTUALLY, CENTRAL BANKS ARE THE CORE OF CONTROLLING CIVILIZATION THROUGH THE METHODS OF ORGANIZED CRIME. Their "successes" have created almost incomprehensible levels of INSTABILITY!

NONE of the dictionary definitions of the words that most people use to attempt to discuss the social situations actually apply very well, rather than mislead more. The single best word is "plutocracy," however that is not correct either, because the greatest "wealth" of those plutocrats is to be able to make the public "money" supply out of nothing. The Central Feature of Central Banks is their legal ability to create endless amounts of "money" out of nothing, while that public "money" supply is something that everyone else is forced to work for, and pay taxes with. Moreover, another crucial feature of Central Banks is that they are all effectively under Private Control. The policies of the Central Banks are coordinated through an international system set up by international bankers:

As historian Carroll Quigley wrote:

"powers of financial capitalism
had another far-reaching goal,
nothing less than to create a
world system of financial
control in private hands
able to dominate the
political system of
each country and
the economy of
the world as
a whole ..."

However, that REAL history is more like ancient archeology now, because the successful creation of those ENFORCED FRAUDS, which have become electronics backed by atomic energy, has driven the BIG BANKS to become inconceivably BIG expressions of runaway crazy corruption, to the point where the little lives of flesh and blood people, inside the physical markets are relatively trivial factors, within the virtual reality using "money" made out of nothing to speculate with, since that virtual reality now exceeds the physical reality of physical markets by orders of magnitude, similar to the degree to which electronics and atomic energy exceeds the common sense of the vast majority of people.

After one recognizes that all the "money" that the vast majority of people use to buy food and fuel, etc., is now but a TRIVIAL aspect of the established economic systems, the REAL problems are so BIG that the lives of ordinary flesh and blood people no longer matter to the virtual world of finance based on runaway, triumphantly enforced frauds.

The overall situation is that the financial world is dominated by a collective group of trillionaire mass murderers, while nobody else is remotely close to being in their league. The surreal situation where the "money" made out of nothing to gamble with is orders of magnitude bigger than everything that flesh and blood people ever actually pay for, using the same public "money" supply, requires facing some extremely distressing basic facts. 

Our fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems HAVE enabled us to live AS IF there were more than 10 extra planet Earths, inside of the virtual world created by the banksters' abilities to have their frauds enforced by governments. Anyone who thinks we could fix the problems that exist when everything that operates now is based on pretending there are more than 10 more planet Earths in the virtual world, than in the real world (because that virtual financial world is based on systems of electronic monkey money, backed by apes with atomic bombs), is NOT remotely close to being in the order of magnitude of what those problems ACTUALLY ARE.

There is no rational way to imagine what the possible "market corrections" could be, when the ERROR was based on acting like there were more than 10 more additional planet Earths!

Overall, a good argument can be made that the ratio is more like 100 to 1, rather than merely 10 to 1, while that is headed towards becoming 1,000 to 1 at an exponentially accelerating rate. For example, it appears there is 100 times as much electronic and/or paper "gold" as there is physical gold, and similar situations appear in every area that one more critically examines! The accumulated CONTRADICTIONS between the imaginary, virtual, financial world, based on government enforced bankster frauds, versus the real, physical world, ARE AT LEAST AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OFF!

The banksters are surely driving one INSIDE JOB CRISIS after another, in order to advance their agenda. However, their agenda is criminally insane. Of course, it appears to make no significant practical difference to understand that, nor to try to develop a language to describe that which is not totally bullshit, because our social systems are almost totally based on bullshit.

At present, the banksters' bullshit is overwhelmingly dominant. The only publicly significant opposition is controlled, to be reactionary revolutionaries, who are supposed to be waking up the mainstream morons, to understand the social facts, but which never propose realistic solutions consistent with those real facts. THEY NEVER PROMOTE BETTER SYSTEMS OF ARTIFICIAL SELECTION, CONSISTENT WITH NATURAL SELECTION. Instead, the vast majority of the reactionary revolutions stay WITHIN the biggest bullies' bullshit world view, still using the same bullshit language.

The banksters are deliberately destroying the middle class, and the kinds of social systems which would allow those kinds of middle classes to exist. However, that is because the ruling classes rule by being the best organized gangs of criminals, who have successfully waged war against those they rule over so much, for so, long that the vast majority of the middle class are mainstream morons, utterly brainwashed to believe in bullshit, while the mostly desultory efforts to educate them are conducted by the controlled opposition of reactionary revolutionaries, who continue to operate within the same frame of reference as the banksters' bullshit social stories, because almost nobody would understand anything else.

The only ways which theoretically could work better would be to understand human realities as manifesting general energy systems, which end up best described by the principles and methods of organized crime. I.e., human realities are ALWAYS organized lies operating robberies, with the banksters operating the most abstract forms of frauds, as symbolic robbery.

However, generally, almost everyone continues to think through using DUALITIES based on false fundamental dichotomies, and therefore, propose bogus "solutions" based on impossible ideals. All of the generally understood and used language about politics and economics is almost totally BULLSHIT. There are realities behind that, but practically NO good language, with good labels, to be able to discuss those realities. Instead, we are operating a civilization based on enforced frauds, which are automatically becoming more criminally insane, the more successful they are. ...

In the article above, Hugh-Smith obliquely refers to those problems, but does not appear to directly address the driving mechanisms, which were civilizations developing on the basis of THOUSANDS OF YEARS OF SOCIAL "SUCCESS" BASED ON BEING ABLE TO BACK UP LIES WITH VIOLENCE, THAT HAVE BECOME THE SYSTEMS OF GOVERNMENT ENFORCED BANKSTERS FRAUDS!

Hence, the wilder oscillations being observed, which are surely going to get wilder still! However, while there will be plenty of destruction of the lower classes that are being ruled over, the ruling classes do NOT deserve to be referred to as the "elites." They merely have psychological and political habits which enable them to back up lies with violence, while the lower classes have social habits were are used to that happening. Overall, the ruling classes are criminally insane, while those that they rule over are also criminally insane.

The entire human species has become way too good at lying to itself, because within human societies success was achieved by backing up lies with violence, therefore, our political economy is based on enforced frauds, within which systems the central banks and the most obvious symbols, as the Kings of Fraud.

However, being the Kings of Fraud actually means that the central banks are the most criminally insane, central components of an overall criminally insane civilization. There is no good language to discuss relatively more object facts, because the central social facts are the control of society through systems of enforced frauds, as seen by how central banks can make "money" out of nothing, and do so to deliberately drive crises, in order to move forward their overall criminally insane agenda, while those they rule over are similarly too criminally insane to be able to comprehend that, because they have been conditioned to not want to understand that.

Therefore, the language that almost everyone used to discuss these situations is almost totally based on bullshit, while even those who try to understand things better tend to still be stuck inside of using bullshit language to explain those social situations. Therefore, it is typical for guys like Hugh-Smith to grossly underestimate the magnitude of the problems that he is discussing, such as to make the kinds of statement above.

In my view, it is impossible to exaggerate the degree to which controlling civilization through being able to successfully back up lies with violence has resulted in that civilization overall becoming criminally insanity headed towards instability on the scale of collective psychotic breakdowns and severe social storms. The apparent "success" of the central banks, as the biggest gangsters, able to control governments, in order to enforce frauds, DOES HAVE A GLOBAL AGENDA. However, there are no good labels for that, because it is actually the trajectory of the application of the principles and methods of organized crime, which ultimately are CRIMINALLY INSANE, and become more so to the degree that they continue to be socially successful.

While I believe it is theoretically possible to develop a better language, and ways of labeling the phenomena, the groups of people who would like that are vanishingly small. Meanwhile, the groups of people who continue to want to believe in bullshit, and use bullshit language. are overwhelmingly dominant, not only in the ruling classes, but also throughout the controlled opposition.

The banksters plan on continuing to deliberately cause crises that enable them to ramp up their ability to control society through systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence. However, exactly to the degree that they are successfully able to enforce more and bigger frauds, then civilization as a whole will become more criminally insane. The banksters will surely be able to continue to destroy the lives of the Zombie Sheeple and mainstream morons, or the masses of muppets. However, that does NOT mean that the banksters agenda is not criminally insane, rather, the more successful they are, then the more criminally insane they become, due to the inherent nature of the increasingly severe contradictions that controlling civilization through backing up lies with violence actually results in that civilization overall becoming more criminally insane.

In that context, the destruction of the natural world driven by fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems is way worse than the social polarization driven by those frauds. There is NO good language which is generally understood, in order for enough people to be able to be more realistic, since there has been thousands of years of dominating society through systems of backing up lies with violence, which have resulted in almost TOTAL DOMINANCE OF ALL NATURAL LANGUAGES, AS WELL AS THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, WITH BULLSHIT!

The political paradoxes driven by each increment of being able to SUCCESSFULLY enforced frauds have created social systems which are criminally insane, and therefore, headed towards a series of psychotic breakdowns, whose degree of INSTABILITY are impossible to fully imagine! However, practically nobody who was socially successful operating within those systems in the past is able and willing to understand the deeper levels of the more radical truth about that, and even if they attempted to do that, there is no generally understood language which can be used to communicate those insights with any other significant number of people.

The human species has out-foxed itself, by primarily applying its intelligence to get better at being able to back up lies with violence, which is the source of all central banks, and why the behavior of those central banks has been deliberately driving crises, through criminally insane inside jobs, one after another, that the vast majority of people never understood, because they had been conditioned to not want to understand.

hooligan2009's picture

well said ( i  like what i said better though :) )

bankers (unfortunately) are still people...they are motivated by the same things that non-bankers are.. not god's work, just being the best that they can be...

in times gone by..romans, vikings, mongols, etc etc even nazis thought their way was right...

these days, as you put it "fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems" are the modern equivalent of romans, mongols, vikings etc etc even nazis...consequences are not bloody, but do dominate the 99%.. times change, values don't as one tabloid financial journal put it

central bankers are the same... trying to be the best they can be, and, I believe this, they are doing what they are trained to do and they think it's right...

of course it isn't legal, decent, honest, truthful, ethical or moral..but those "values" are not relevant to a cabal that is given over to "group think".

i am an optimist as i believe that there is nothing a cabal can do that will last forever... a new cabal will take over...what is going on here is the rationalization of the infinite.. infinite QE means something...it doesnt matter what you do today because, in the world of infinite outcomes, anything could happen later..

of course (or curse) that logic fails when you take what is not yours and pretend you are something you are not..you are not a god, money is not value and stealing from tomorrow means that tomorrow you are.....broke

Radical Marijuana's picture

I agreed with the points you made, hooligan2009.

In case you have not watched it before, some of your statements (in times gone by..romans, vikings, mongols, etc ...) made me think to recommend this video to you:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzdomBX8U0w

UROKO

"Uroko is the Japanese word for 'scale', as in the scale of a fish or serpent. The Japanese expression "uroko ga me kara ochiru", or, "scales fall from one's eyes" is the English equivalent of "waking up to the truth". Uroko is an attempt to strip away the fairy tales we have been told since birth, exposing the true nature of the world we live in."

That hour and a half long documentary attempts to present its maker's view of who are the "ruling classes," and what were their historical roots. Of course, that was NOT a perfect presentation, but I enjoyed watching the effort it made to weave together the apparent threads of the ancestry of the current ruling classes.

 

blindman's picture

this is the thing ..
Graham Parker - "Between You And Me" 1976
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OASHzUCWuI
.
unforgettable, yes.
.
worlds are built on that difference.
.
Graham Parker - Success
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zzsRVeXcL8

esum's picture

central planning is a   F A I L

name ONE place where it has worked......... 

 

 

MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Hugh-Smith writes an insightful article about risk taking on central

bank decision making, but fails to remind the reader that Ragurham

Rajan pointed out to the top central bankers of the World that their

risk taking would undoubtedly blow up in their face two years before

08 and Summers likened him to a 'Ludditte' for doing so at that juncture. Not only do the Central Bankers/Planners not know what

they are doing, they don't actually fucking care. Summers only cares

about his position in the club. All bankers push risk like a junkie pushes heroin and when they screw their lives up they pin the blame on underlings. And if one harkens back to the Wizard of Oz story, we find a Wizard that turns out to be a little man behind a curtain working the levers of "The Great and powerfull Oz" but he admits

he is just an old man that went on a balloon ride one day and woke

up in the Land of Oz to find himself leader of The Munchkins. The

difference here is that the USA is not the Land of Oz and there ain't

no Wizard to blame when we all know that the academic Economists

are the so-called wizards of the accounts, to borrow a phrase from

Dickens 'A Christmas Carol'. Taken together, we are dealing with

acdemic Economists that are unable to understand basic elementary

mathematics or quantum behavioural economics to any real degree.

The risk to the World is obvious and will result in WW3 due to hubris

on the part of the American Congress and the White House leadership.

 

rgrdnrjr's picture

The Fed's lending of $16 Trillion in secret during 2008-2009 seemed to have created the desired liquidity but very likely won't be repeated.