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Despite Dismal Retail Sales, US Consumer Are The Most Exuberant In 10 Years
UMich Consumer Sentiment surged to 98.2 - smashing expectations of 94.1 by the most in almost 2 years. This is the highest sentiment since February 2004...!!This all seems very odd... especially in light of the dismal retail sales data and weak wage growth (and we note this is the preliminary print). Inflation expectations plunged to 2.4% (from 2.8%) - the lowest since 2010. American optimism remains unphased as a majority (55.2%) now expect higher wages in the next year (despite earninsg actually dropping!!) 54% of Americans think it is a good time to SELL a house.
This seemed to sum it all up nicely....
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) January 16, 2015
Charts: Bloomberg
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Lots of shagging going on the night before the survey. but when you are broke and can't go out, you may as well shag the missus
that graph look UN-normal in a normal world
Average idiot is in for one helluva surprise this year.
Consumer Confidence = Retail Gas Prices
HAPPY HAPPY JOY JOY!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfNajFYPljQ&list=RDjfNajFYPljQ#t=18
This is the view of essentially everyone on my facebook feed.
Dumbest fucking people working 2 part time jobs buying a 3,000 sq ft house in the burbs with a pool and a new BMW. Look at me like I'm nuts when I stay shit is about to invert. They just cannot imagine it. hahahahaha
I get -- often --
Idiots: "Well thats not what I heard on TV. What is it you do anyhow? I haven't seen you in 10 years."
Me: "Oh yeah, I work for one of the largest financial institutions in the world forecasting the fallout of unforseen financial events."
Them: "Well I don't know how it works but I got myself a home."
Should I gloat when this does explode and people start getting kicked out their homes? I need to thin the heard anyhow, and letting the morons get rid of me would take less work on my own part.
TV--the new reality-- +1 for you
The same thing was said in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and now this year.
I've been following this blog since 2009 and its the same chicken little predictions over and over again. After many years you chicken littles will be right, but then again, a wall clock with dead batteries is right twice a day, but that is still weak advice to hedge on.
The feeling is definitely there. It's a new morning in America...
We have faith in our leaders...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk5tz-rfdIk
The thing is -- our "chicken little predictions" would have been 100% correct in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and last year -- IF the central banks didn't have the ability to print money out of thin air to cover up toxic assets.
This is an effective can-kicking tool, but it does just that -- kick the can. It does not solve any problems, but merely exaserbates them.
So when this thing finally does come down in a house of cards, there will be schmucks like you who think "ahh fuck all those Libertarians -- I'll keep voting pregressive. Peter Schiff is still a moron and they all just got lucky."
But with each collapse, we look more and more credible, and people who have your opinions look less and less credible.
Things should have fallen apart in 2010 and in 2012, possible 2013 depending on how exposed Greek banks were to Cypriot debt. That being said -- the central banks stepped in and "saved the day."
No one can predict central bank interventions -- as they are political decisions made behind closed doors. If you expect us to know what Mr. Yellen and Fräulein Draghi will do ahead of time -- sorry to say we will normally disappoint. However, we know how to look at the numbers, find problems and figure out what happens when X, Y and Z happen. On the later this blog has been spot on since its inception.
Check your attitude. You sound like Mr. Maddow.
the "schmuck" is the loser who thought the central banks would not do everything in their power (and outside) to preserve the status quo. ringing any bells?
...your vote buttons are blocked...wonder why?
====>Planning to consume today
====>Planning to consume tomorrow
Those are the only allowable responses to the survey.
Add the totals and add or subtract an appropriate amount to meet the objectives TPTB.
I guess there's no option of not planning to consume either today or tomorrow?
if you participate in facebook on any level you are pretty much asking for your faith in humanity to be destroyed, it's the walmart of the internet. just delete that shit.
.
Ever watch mainstream 'news' ?
We dumped all t.v. some time ago. But, I see it when we visit family.
People raised in front of the 'boob tube' actually believe what they watch.
They scratch their heads, give a dumbfounded look, and then spout out some conditioned response when their beliefs are challenged. The 'schools' and the mass media do brain washing that few see through.
This article doesn't surprise me at all.
IF you believe these stats, then you also believe we have 5.6% unemployment.
It's all in the math, you see.
It's easy to change the calculation to prove everything is just fine.
But how long will it take before the hyponotized wake up to the fact that they are up to their necks in shit and the plumbing doesn't work?
The average joe on Main Street has relief at the gas pump and groceries have for the most part stablized in price, because the USD has gone up, whether you doomers want to believe it or not.
I remember last year all of the doom articles and posters fearing high prices at the grocery stores due to the California drought. No, it was just propaganda by storable food companies to sell Number 10 cans. All the buyers for the major grocery chains imported food in from Latin America, and prices haven't had a significant increase.
As for selling houses, I agree, now would be a good time to sell. If one bought a house in 1995 for $110,000 the same house, despite the area turning ghetto and the cookie cutter going through 20 years of harsh winters and storms with wear and tear, is now magically worth $300,000. The problem is, the same joe now has to buy a house to move into that is at these insanely high prices. When the market corrects, the house he just moved into will be underwater. If Joe plans on selling his house and moving in to a rental to ride out the correction, I'd say don't hold your breath. It could be this year or a decade from now when the housing correction happens, because with no millenials buying due to poor job prospects, addictions to video games, and student loan debt, empty houses will be everywhere in upcoming years which has to force a correction. But then again, that would be assuming we have a "market" which doesn't exist, so those empty houses will be torn down for re-wilding like they are in Detroit. The big banks would rather have vacant lots to create artificial scarcity, than have Joes living in affordable housing.
Good luck. Whatever move you anticipate will be a bad move, because you are going against the Fed and their magickal printing press, and big banks with A.I. supercomputers that actuary any scenario to fleece the 99% as much as they possibly can.
"...and groceries have for the most part stablized in price"
Can you cite some credible/obtainable evidence of this 'stabilization', Doctor?
He can't. Just bullshit from the bulltards as usual. Besides, stabilizing after a doubling of prices is supposed to be a good thing? LOL
Here's the source to back the doctor's rambling bullshit:
The food index rose 0.3 percent in December after a 0.2 percent increase in November. The index for
food at home rose 0.3 percent with five of the six major grocery store food groups increasing. The index
for dairy and related products posted the largest increase, rising 0.6 percent after declining in November.
The fruits and vegetables index rose 0.4 percent, with the fresh vegetables index rising 2.4 percent but
the index for fresh fruits declining 1.3 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.3
percent as the index for beef and veal continued to rise, advancing 0.7 percent. The index for other food
at home increased 0.3 percent, and the cereals and bakery products index advanced 0.2 percent. The
nonalcoholic beverages index, in contrast, declined in December, falling 0.4 percent after rising in each
of the previous three months. The food at home index has risen 3.7 percent over the last 12 months, with
all six groups rising over the span. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in December
after a 0.4 percent increase in November, and has risen 3.0 percent over the last year.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2015/01/15/police-close-case-on-minnesota-...
FUCK!
This is what we've become..............
The parents should be HUNG!
poor child,..... Rest In Peace.
May you be Avenged!
They only surveyed the potheads in Colorado
No amount of weed can people that delusional.
That level of magical thinking comes through three different avenues IME:
1 Churches
2.Alcohol
3.Cocaine.
Weed is nowhere near as potent as any of those three, nor has it caused as many deaths as any of the three.
I think its funny how non-smokers think weed fucks people up so much when they have no experience with it except propaganda or 'this one guy they knew who was a burnout'.
When the results of alcohol fueled delusion are visible at any singles bar any night or at any sporting event.
Cocaine? It's a hell of drug!
Exuberant joy over that second job as waiter. It is going upwards.
"This all seems very odd..."
Not really. Denial is a huge defense.
we have ignition on the equity mkts. order has been restored. buy spy calls at will.
Free school, free HC, free phones...fuck yea!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-18/60-households-get-more-benefits...
We bought some analysts.
We tortured some data.
Everything is AWESOME!!
exactly the american people drinking to much fluoride or this is another lie
Cheap gas for cars in Michigan
I wanna go broke than! Whatever it takes to get the old lady to deliver the honey pot.
I'm exuberant, but I just had a burrito. Pardon me...
Is there a flaw in the data-collection process? People who don't give a shit don't respond to the survey mailing or hang up on the phone call, but people who are doing ok will answer the phone?
What if it is a phone survey and the households with 2 spouses working don't respond but the wealthier household with one spouse at home do respond?
Out of everyone you know. do you know one person who has ever been called in one of these surveys? yep, me either
We called some folks.
Old folks respond because they like talking to people. Old folks are getting jobs.
Done.
... UMich didn't even say what they were smoking during research ... :)
Harriet and Blah Blah Nyborg answered the survey.
Yes we called some folks
Inside the district of criminals and the outlying Maryland(fantasyland)suburbs
Exactly. After that last budget deal, they're all thrilled. Thanks, Boehner.
See above re Old Folks answer surveys. And Old Folks more likely to have Land-Lines versus those kids today.
With all the bullshit statistics this administration has put out, why do we even think they called ANYBODY? I say they just made it all up, like Obama's "48%" approval rating...because he's been doing such a good job lately. LOL
actually yes. my son was visiting a few months back and got a call by pew. he signed up to do regular email surveys with them, good Libertarian that he is.
It's straight out of Jinny Stewart's Magic Town(almost).
They have identified the perfect 1000 people to give them precisely the answers they desire.
Obama's makes sure the report is positive.
Can't have a bad report. The sheeple would retrench.
Consumers were exuberant just before the last crash in 2008 also.
1929 crash caught the champane party by total surprise.
after two weeks on the hamburger grill..you have it mastered..you ARE in CONTROL....you feel good
I'm not in the statistic. They didn't ask me. If they did I would have punched them.
...ummmm that's some mighty fine kool-aid....
"Oh there goes a pig flying"
per Alan Greenspan, it is
"irrational exuberance"
consumer CONfidence index survey = whatever NY FED and TBTF tell Reuters to publish.
show me the survey responses, give us the names of the "people" interviewed. why not?
It's a telephone survey. So is there something in the way the calls are done (time?) that is introducing a bias? Like the impact of discouraged workers that has made the Unemployment Rate a useless indicator.
Assuming they call in the evening to make sure the household members are home, who answers phone surveys? I always hang up, but my mother-in-law doesn't.
There's your answer! OLD PEOPLE answer telephone survers because they're lonely and want to talk to people, and old people are the only people getting jobs right now.
Thoughts?
do you honestly believe there are phone calls being placed and the survey index represents this massive optimism of the people called? only possible if the area codes where in NYC or DC.
it's not called Reuters now for nothing - why on earth do you think a financial network bought into the index?
Someone commented that another bias could be the land-line effect. Survey only gets land-lines but trend is towards people using cells more at home.
What kind of people are more comfortable keeping things the way that they are (land-lines), don't like change, like land-lines so phone is always available in case of emegency (health?), like fact that 911 calls can be traced back etc
OLD TIMEY PEOPLE !!!
Same ones getting jobs (+55 years).
My hypothesis is that the Survey people have divided into two working groups. The Dept. of phone call makers and the Dept. of phone call takers. The Dept. of survey questions and answers does the rest.
Couldnt one argue that when the average JO is confident in the economy you are near the top
Reading and discussing this UMich drivel, created with an abundance of concoction, makes one a party to the crime.
It probably is a phone survey and the type of people who have a land line with a listed number is changing. That change most likely has not been accounted for in the data. Their phone list also might include all the Obama phones which will have an effect on the data.
propaganda, pure and simple. I will never understand why the MSM as a whole decided to scrap journalism for propagandism. How did it come to that?
Centralized corporate control. NYC media controlled by NYC banks. End the FED.
You're acting like propaganda just happened the other day.
Try as far back as the Spanish American War
William Randolph Hearst "You furnish the pictures, and I'll furnish the war!"
Propaganda goes even further back of course, but I gave an example at the very beginning of the modern era.
It's easier, has a lower bar for entry, and you might live longer...simple.
It's simple. They are activists, not reporters.
Ratings. Next question?
Do the respondents to these consumer surveys live in an off planet sterile vacuum bubble (without wifi) somewhere?
Hmm lets see what the very dumbest think...those who would actually pick up the phone and answer our bullshit poll.
I am dismally exuberant every other day. Or something.
Lies, all lies.
If people were confident Christmas numbers would have looked a lot better.
Not necessarily. We have lived most our lives in the 'consumer is King' environment...but consumption can also be a sign of discontent. Look at how desperately unhappy people will shop themselves into bankruptcy. What retailers see as great numbers might really represent a kind of mental illness.
A cut-back in holiday spending would be a sign of a return to a more responsible kind of spending. Of course, the numbers would look bad from a retailers POV, but trained eye might spot the beginnings of a more healthy foundation for the future.
One of the few observations on this thread so far worth pondering.
You might be on to something.
low gas prices is the reason. it's not rocket science. Yes, some oil related jobs are going away but for the rest of the country low gas prices are making people feel better about their financial situation. How could it not? data does not always tell the real picture.
Markets are up 7% over the last 3 months, Housing prices are up, household debt service ratios are near lows of all time. etc. etc.
They're happy in a "I won't be evicted this month" sort of way.
Exactly. I see the reds of people not wanting to face this was going to happen, the surprise is only how big it is, not that it's occurring.
People will remember that the last time this occurred as the market went severely wobbly, they stopped spending. Now they will see the result of the macro collapse and even cheap oil will not tempt them to spend.
YAY we're exuberant, planning for Stuporbowl drunkfest with Katie Perry, we're all OMG fun times at hand!
I guess when you get layed off and sign up for your check, EBT, Obozo phone, utility relief, etc... Can't find a job you want, your expectations get lower and lower. So when something comes along like a drop in gas prices then... Happy days are here again!
Or the other possibility is that this index is some made up bullshit!
Yea, that's the ticket!
Wow, looks like the NY FED just went ape sh*t with it's yen algo and pushed yields higher on a dime. what a farse.
With everything about us being manipulated to perpetuate control of us sheeple, why in the world should I even entertain an errant brain fart that the University of UAW Keynes Michigan would put out anything that would expose their benefactor? These numbers are as phony as GDP, CPI, Unemployment, et al.
Speaking of wicked houses of learning, what's with the Duke Tobacco Cancer U undergoing Islamifuckification?
In the last couple of months I have talked to more people who stopped watching or reading the news. None of these surveys are correct either the people don't understand the questions or they are stupid.
Ring ring
"Hello"
Survey operative
"How are you today"
Person
"Terrible I lost the part time job I only just got"
Survey operative
"Sorry to bother you, goodbye"
Ring Ring
"Hello"
Survey operative
"How are you today"
Person
"It is the best day of my life"
Survey operative
"Would you mind if I asked you some questions"
Person
"Sure, go ahead, I feel so good today, what do you want to know?"
The Surveys do extensive adjustment to reduce bias based on Age, Income etc. But the problem is that historical analysis may not apply in the past 5 years. The trend of job growth in +55 year bucket is too recent to be picked up by survey adjustments. Likewise the surveys may make assumptions about non-land-line households (poor etc.) that are less applicable today.
Who on earth would want to commission (pay for) a survey that did not meet expectations?
We're selling a product here.
Your satisfaction and future business is our only concern.
Every poll is fudged or cooked. The "true" polls are done by pentagon and are top secret, never published. The public polls are designed to prove the point of those who pay for it, private or government. The most common and simplest methods of manipulation are: never do a poll in the first place and just make up numbers,or automatically change bad answers to good answers or those most honest do: call 10,000 people and report participation of 1000 and pick and choose answer on the top of biased introducing narrative and highly suggestive, loaded questions. For example. As a patriot do you love your country? 99% yes. They ask for reference to the feelings of belonging or morality and not for facts. Anyways, what they actually want to know is how their propaganda works and what they have to do to improve it. The C-SPAN is one of such surveillance institutions to gauge how these meddlesome outsiders respond to propaganda or other stimulus.
I've said it before...and I will say it again....the primary problem with this type survey is that it measures HOPE.
Hope is a great thing....it gets people thru tough times and keeps them going when all reason says to go lay in a ditch and die.
BUT....measuring "Hope" is not the same thing as measuring actual economic improvement. It is a weakness in the methodology that we expect "hope" to always translate into better economic results. Sometimes...yes...hope is self full-filling, but it is not always so. It is a methodology issue that gets overlooked...as do many "basic assumptions" underlying any economic philosophy.
It's certainly a better time to sell a house than to buy one, so they got that right at least.
This measures consumer confidence. But confidence in WHAT?
Maybe they're feeling better because they've been paying off some debt, not taking on more, cutting waste and bloat from their budgets, and are realizing that this isn't a BAD thing! The confidence might be arising from the sudden sense of freedom from the consumer gerbil-wheel of debt and spend...
This isn't the variety of confidence that TPTB want however...oh well, it works for me.
Propaganda.
The 'murican consumer is always the last to find out. He's propagandized and hypnotized to such a degree he doesn't know he's been propagandized or hypnotized. Poor, stupid sonofabitch, he never sees it coming.
Substitutes for exuberant: out of touch or duped.
Ready to see the battle royal with Vortex 2.0 vs Valentines Day
Yesterday it was 1 in 4 think economy improving, today the term is exuberant, validity is in question.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-only-1-in-4-buy-team-obamas-claim-unemployment-improving/article/2558690
Total B.S.
If this is as good as it gets, then we have a problem.
I would expect these consumer sentiment numbers during the Summer, not winter. I would expect these numbers when real people, have real jobs, not part time ones.
I would expect these numbers when the 92 million people out of work are working.
I would also expect these numbers when people have faith in, and trust in, their government.
I don't believe these numbers due to none of the above happening.
if i recall correctly, consumer sentiment was at an all time high just before the 2008-9 meltdown. it really is the best contrarian marker out there. when the bottom half of the class think things are great the party is over.
Everyone be trippin. ;)
Nearly 7 in 10 Americans Take Prescription Drugs, Mayo Clinic, Olmsted Medical Center Find
http://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/nearly-7-in-10-americans-ta...
Some people use crayons. Others use water, or oil. The best don't need materials.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Way-Shaman-Michael-Harner/dp/0062503731
There is a 1% in every field of endeavor. Only One Goes First.
Alan Greenspan pegged it as "irrational exhuberance"