This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
This Won't End Well
If you thought the market's reaction to the Swiss National Bank's decision was extreme... imagine what happens when this unwinds...
Leveraged Funds have never been more short the Treasury Bond... and T-Bond yields continue to crash to record lows...
And yesterday - specs were the shortest the Swiss Franc in 2 years and it spiked 24 handles.
Chart: Bloomberg
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
»
- 56438 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Don't worry Tyler. You and I and other taxpayers have their back$$$$$$$.
Assholes.
Time to pull the pin!!!
Apparently, they all believe Yellen when she says the fed will be raising rates,... soon,...
[What a bunch of maroons...]
Absolutely super peachy.....
I hate bonds, all bonds, over the next three to five years.
I sure as hell would not short them here. The whole world is chasing yield and security. There is precious little of that in the States, but none at all anywhere else.
Bonds... Janet Bonds.
Jamit Bonds.
"If you thought the market's reaction to the Swiss National Bank's decision was extreme... imagine what happens when this unwinds..."
It's has to unwind slowly,. Rates will continue to move down and slowly the shorts will get ground down, remove their bets and take their losses. The FED has no choice.
At some point soon the FED had better STFU about rate increases and keep the bet from growing any larger.
This situation is entirely the FED's fault.
It's all a grand farce, folks. Just prepare well, sit back and observe all of the folly as fiat fractional reserve debt-based counterfeit monetary policy plays itself out. But, please, do your part in ensuring that the same criminal scam artists are NOT put in charge of erecting the next system. The world's nation's money should all be set up independently and WITHOUT debt... issued according to each nation's needs and based on something material and of value. Pass this little tidbit of info on to the unenlightened in your midst. The more that know this truth... the better our chances of succeeding.
Bond, Gold Bond:
Rough & Bumpy Skin Cream.
http://www.drugstore.com/gold-bond-ultimate-rough-and-bumpy-skin-daily-t...
Time is money.
@MalteseFalcon
Well, duh, we're compelled to carry around Federal Reserve Notes. The whole thing is their fault, not just jawboning rates. Of course, we'd all be better off if we could walk out of the casino.
It's one thing to assemble the dynamite, another to start waving a blow torch around the dynamite.
This can end with a whimper or a bang.
Bond, James Bond
Martini shaken, not stirred => Money shaken, not stored.
You can chase yield.
You can chase security.
You cannot chase both.
The best possible yield may be a 50% loss rather than a 100% loss.
Silver, copper, brass, and lead. Bitchez.
that cleanest dirty short is getting pretty funky ?
Yellen Falls into a higher class of Citizen.
Classism in USA
- Looks like 6 Classes
- President, Former Presidents, Diplomat Class, CON-gress, Anyone know how to get Transparency over who is an International Diplomat for the USA?? No Taxes Probably (like in the EU), Diplomatic Immunity, Special Treatment in Customs & All Ports of Entry, Security Detail, Special Access to the best Hotel Rooms & Hotel Amenities, US Federal Funding for Travel, Hotel, Conferences, Security, and who knows what else...
- Elite Class who go to Ivy League Universities, and now Run out biggest organizations, Often Elites are born Elites, Tremendous connection to Banking & Finance
- Non-Debt Class of Workers, Professionals, Voters
- Debt Class, Voters
- Immigrant Class, can't vote, start poor, don't start with debt, Usually are paid the lowest Wages
- Criminal Class, Prison Class, usually can't vote, are poor
"Classism is differential treatment based on social class or perceived social class. Classism is the systematic oppression of subordinated class groups to advantage and strengthen the dominant class groups. It’s the systematic assignment of characteristics of worth and ability based on social class."
----
No, I can't see higher rates in our Future, we will see Crisis after Crisis... this keeps the people confused and Hypnotized.
FDIC only has a couple billion in their account. After that, they'll get a digital IOU like the rest of us.
Joke's on them anyway, we don't have $500 Trillion to be stolen.
GS
MS
C
BAC
JPM
and other Tier 1 Fed Shareholders do not require FDIC insurance. They just steal from us directly. If you did not feel the assrape in 2008-2009, they WILL take your virginity in the months ahead.
Never invest in:
- Small Caps
- Big Dividend Banks
- Big US Wall Street Banks
Demand they let "Fail" even if they are in Oil Credit, Oil & Gas, Oil Rigs, Oil Storage or Warehousing, or Oil Distribution
I knew I saved my virginity for something.
Dat punk (Universal translator: pedophilia)
True. There is a plan, but it is not FDIC Insurance, and Main Street is not going to like the Bail-Ins.
- Maybe the Police, Firemen, Military Service Members will Realize they are losing Wealth
- Maybe Education and Health Care worker will Realize they have been Screwed this time
About time those government stooge workers joined the bail in party... they only think they're sitting at the big boy table...
It would be interesting to know how many of those shorts are held by institutions that are FDIC insured? Surely they wouldn't be gambling with excess deposits would they?
Blowback, bitches.....
The assumption is "it" will end. Don't tell me, show me when.
You'll know when it does, that I guarantee. Unless you die before then, but I tend to think that you won't, unless you have a proclivity for standing in front of moving buses. Either this boom-bust cycle, which looks like it is coming to an end here, or the next, for which you'll probably have to wait another ~7 years.
Considering how badly all the markets have been bent out of shape the last few years I think this drop will be long and hard and since our alleged government will likely do the worst thing possible, it's likely to be a very deep hole we fall into.
"will likely do the wrst thing possible"
MISSION CONTROL, ALL SYSTEMS FUNCTIONING NORMAL.
Perhaps I'm being dense, but I don't get this particular blog post.
Levered funds have record short positions on USTs, which means they (effectively) collect cash and pay counterparties the paltry yield. Presumably the collected cash (i.e., available margin) is then deployed into other asset classes.
This trade blows up if UST yields unexpectedly and violently crater from current levels. Hence my lack of understanding... how exactly is the 10Y yield going to suddenly crater to, say, 50 bps? Is it lack of imagination on my part?
Why would they want it to end? Its all that is holding up what is left of housing, and the charade of US government finances. Tell me when the 10 year breaks 0.75, and the 30 is a 1.5... and the 2 is a quarter percent negative...
If it all ends, what does that even mean? If it all ends means just about everyone and everything is broken then TPTB are either planning mass genocide or to own and control everything and everyone.
The capitalists have sold the communists the rope with which they will be hanged. It was predicted and it is happening.
The capitalists and communists joined forces and are one and the same.
OK, let me do this gently. One world government right? You've heard of that right? Now who do you think in your wildest dreams started that? Do you really think they give a rat's ass of crashing the system they want to crash? Do you think that having a few less Trillion $ at their disposal wll matter to them? They plan on getting it all back.By all I mean the whole fucking world. It s the ultimate leverage bet.
They will lose.
Losses? Don't worry, we'll make it up in volume...
If gold and silver keeps moving like this week ill be nicely wealthy but with what I wonder SDR
They will ALWAYS panic towards liquidity.
ALWAYS.
That is NOT the Swiss Franc or the euro.
"safety"
no worries. BROTHER has it covered
http://www.digitalversus.com/printer/fastest-printer-world-100-pages-per...
Best bond rally ever.
to infinity and beyond...
WTF would anyone with a functioning brain be short US Bonds right now??
They drank tapering Koolaid.
Only with super-cheap far-out-of-the-money options as a low-probability but potentially high-gain head-fake play.
Ann I refraine' to most of your posts because you are perfect in your Predilection's
Thanks. Still, I do think that's a very low probability play. The world economy is slowly collapsing, which doesn't imply high interest rates to me. OTOH, you never know when some central bank (cough, cough), might do something wacko in response to some situation or other. And we won't know when hoards of people finally give up on the USSA and USD... until it happens.
You're wrong. I deeply appreciate your intuitions.
Ann, I love building structures.
or they know somethng we don't reagrding Putin and euro about to unfold ?
You're right, I think. Why?
Coz we don't see/know a lot of things they know with the all-seeing eye.
In the meantime, keep cheering Put-in.
Coz Put-out is about to come.
Ann , I love that Korean librarian look ... thumbs up.
Some folks buy US Bonds because they see them as safer to hold than other currencies- but to sell those bonds short means they are likely speculating that the price of bonds will fall as interest rates will surely rise.
Will interest rates rise?
Some folks believe rates will go up but with the US and other sovereign nations in debt to the extent they are, would drive their economies into th dirt.
To me this seems about as sure as choosing red or black on a routlette wheel, unless the wheel is rigged which some folks think is the case. Ultimately there will be winners and losers and hopefully you will win.
What a complicated world we live in!
Negative yield on the 10 yr in 3, 2, 1...
You got that shit right. We'll be chasing yields with a fuckin' submarine by Christmas!
You got that shit right. We'll be chasing yields with a fuckin' submarine by Christmas!
Quite crowded on the side of the ship, where a FED rate hike is expected.
Imagine the FED would also introduce, like the SNB, suddenly NIRP. LOL! I think that could sink worldwide financial system. Therefore I believe, the Fed would begin to communicate that first. Which also indicates, that yesterday's action from the SNB was also a trial balloon to see the possible impacts on the markets. Now they know, it would probably sink the ponzi ship and they must prepare the markets for it first.
Could explain those hacked tweets earlier about bail ins and the Fed meeting to announce NIRP. Just trying to plant seeds in whatever subtle way possible to shake the shorts out in a more orderly fashion instead of all at once.
Hmm a Long TBT would be a great scalp play, say June calls.
While the Fed has breath, interest rates will NEVER go up since that would make the Federal Budget impossible to manage. But as yields go lower and lower and volatility goes up and up, AU/AG will become more attractive to anyone with a functioning brain... even as a, dare I say it, an alternative currency.
Geopolitical events will only make this sweeter for the PMs.
Timing? I am beginning to make peace with Armstrong's outlook - 2015.75. Bring it on. I am beginning to think he may be right since everyone else seems to have been wrong.
Why is it, I keep replaying this clip from the "James Bond" movie " Live and Let Die"?
So the Fed will jawbone and that’s enough to push the markets higher? They have the ten-year approaching 1.5% and it will likely go lower. All more QE would do is create negative interest rates like a few other countries have. I cannot imagine them doing something like that here, it would create a huge backlash. So essentially, they are stuck with jawboning about how they have more ammo and more tools available, etc.
Desperate people will do desperate things. The bankers could direct congress to do more ‘cash for clunkers’, ‘cash for T.V.’s, cash for boats, motor homes, etc, to boost consumer spending. Store are empty and deflation has set in. If stores raise prices, people stay away, so now they are all forced to have perpetual sales. Many brick and mortar stores are toast, JCP, SHLD gone soon. Even Amazon sales are way down.
Short squeeze, bitches!
I don't have the balls to buy long bonds, but I wish the best of luck to anyone who does.
I'm not sure the depth of liQuidity? The concervative ETFS might help? Start your own hedge fund for Dummies?
I survived the F/X annihilation. I made some $.
I am pleased you survived X
Who can blame the shorts?
The Fed has spoketh......they would not tell an untruth, now would they?
We promise to hold the EUR/CHF peg, PROMISE!!!
I have to take the opposite view on this. Never underestimate the power of hubris, stupidity, and groupthink. The Fed WILL TRY to raise rates. After all, they tried it in the past...but as we all know, this time is totally different. They will raise rates until all hell breaks loose. Then they will summarily lower them again. Shorts win.
With what they know - which is what everyone here knows and probably a bit more, there is way too much on the line for them to make a mistake at this late stage. Once a cascade takes place this time, there ain't no stopping it save for basically outright monetizing everything, which would signal the end. So why take the risk when you can just jawbone it out a quarter at a time and keep your fingers crossed that the employment rate for bartenders & wait staff continues to climb...?
The TBTF banks have huge, free reserves thanks to the QE counterfeiting. The FED can raise the rate (currently .25%) they are paying on these reserves. So, the banks could make more money loaning, or sitting. The FED works for the banks, after all. Then, after a sufficient market collapse of 50+%, they can ride in to save the day with another round of QE. As soon as the boomers' pensions take a significant hit, QE4 is a given, IMO. It's an extortion racket that uses the threat of stealing pensions to get what it wants. BHO also used this threat(lie) in 2011 regarding the budget. Grandma wouldn't get her SS check unless Congress agreed to a bigger budget.
It's one thing to HATE ME
Denninger insists that the Fed has to raise rates.
Insurance companies, endowment funds, and pension funds are being DESTROYED by ZIRP.
All that is keeping them solvent right now is the stock market bubble.
If the stock market tanks, they will all melt down, and a New Great Depression begins.
The Fed has to either keep inflating the stock market or raise interest rates.
I wish them luck on that Hobson's Choice.
The Fed HAS to raise rates!
But the Fed CAN'T raise rates!
But the Fed HAS to raise rates!
But the Fed CAN'T raise rates!
Maybe we should get rid of the fucking Fed...
Karl Denniger??? That idiot is still around? The one who had his forum and he would ban people if they disagreed with him?????? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
WHAT A FUCKING TOOL!!!! I thought his tickerforum or whatever the that site was called, sent him into hiding from embarrassment.
He banned me because I dared dispute his absurd contention in 2008 that Ron paul was danderous to the safety and security of Americans. He is a Neocon fool who had a visceral hatred for Ron Paul. That tells you all you need to knowabout that idiot.
he actually hates APPLE too-he was making fun of those who lost money when APPLEs stock dove a couple years back...he actually GLOATED! on an "adult" financial board-! He lies about APPLE and brings up anything negative any time he can-for his beloved Blackberry-he even LIES saying that Apple is made by prison workers in China-meaning FOXCONN-when in fact-nearly all electronics are made by FOXCONN these days- Wiki it-
Yeah, Denninger (AKA "Genesis") still has his market ticker blog and you can make comments, but you better be real careful what you post. He banned a guy for not being aware that Denninger is a big fan of Bill Still, concluding that the guy wasn't understanding what he was reading so he was wasting everyone's time. What's really funny is, after he got real bummed out by people not taking his advice or even paying any attention to him at all, he put the domain name and website up for sale. He didn't get the offer he was looking for obviously. He started bugging people to turn their adblock software off but he stopped that after a couple of weeks. Strange behavior even for a classic Type A martinet.
He is still around, but looking for a buyer of that sorry IP=he has been known to SHUT HIS BOARD DOWN if he was in a grumpy mood that day-mention 911-etc etc etc-BANG! instant ban---he was once talking of closing forever....but i see he did a turnaround. Since he bans anyone and deletes anyone who disagrees with him...his site is full of worshipers and syncophants...if he doesnt outright ban you for a comment-he will delete it and send it to "Bilge" which i guess is akin to HELL...
He's about the biggest FUCKING DORK to ever put on a pair of shoes. He got assraped in the market and took it out on everybody who disagreed with him. That fat fucking DORK!!!
Hell, all those shorts have to "buy" to exit the position, which will only run the bond prices higher and drive the rates down lower.
Okay, This is a good time to challenge your fundamental world view. Danny is making an incisive analysis here. This will be a short squeeze like you've never seen. Damn, just thinking of it gets my adrenaline pumping. A Massive Fucking Short Squeeze! Oh yeah, bring it one. I LOVE IT. I may have an orgasm over it.
You've got to escape this kind of thinking, because it basically makes you just one more psychopath who is only concerned about beating the other guy and getting rich because of it. Don't you see, that makes you them. This whole fucking system HAS GOT TO GO!
I hope you are talking to yourself because Danny said nothing like that.
OTOH, I, for one, do hope it all goes belly up. It has to in order to end the system. The sooner the better because the longer this goes the more it is going to hurt people and the more people it will hurt and so on. Just get it done with.
No time like the present?!...
We've been waiting 6 years for justice after Obama and AG Holder handed over 3/4 of a billion dollars that lit the fuse on this and the American people say bahhhh!
Russia and China take this fucker away! Time for the big U.S. T DUMP!
You have to both be fucking fed up buying the most worthless investment there is and in return getting threatened for it!
Ha! TARP! Just chump change. Try $23 trillion handed over.
3/4 of a trillion dollars...........
Enjoy the W/E fellas.
To negative infinity, and beyond!
It is dumber than dirt to imagine rates going up. In a non managed way they may do so but under the current system it will not happen. So bei g short bonds is like saying the system will fail. But not fail enough that your counterparty is bankrupt. OK who is doing this shit? It is a bizarro trade
Kinda like dying.
It really is going to happen.
'Winning' one moment.
'Gone' the next.
i disagree with those who surmise that us treasury shorts are in any way a fed funds rate play. an increase the fed funds rate would not cause the long end to crater. I believe the short's logic was almost impeccable, and purely a fed tapering play. their rationale was missing one critical piece of circuitry, that being that it is utterly IMPOSSIBLE FOR LONG TERM TREASURY RATES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. it is the overriding shunt, the key infinity loop, that one way or another rates will go down. applying the "there is no market, there is only the fed" reasoning and then believing the fed that they would stop qe rationale all came to pass as expected. however, they failed to see the fatal flaw in that thesis which is that it can't possibly win over the long haul. it can't, therefore it won't.
The market(s) are bigger than any bank; The Fed, or any of them combined. When Mr. Market is ready to exact that reality, it will. It is as simple as that.
And, currently, the market seeks the safety of US bonds. If ECB QE's, their banks will buy US bonds with the money. If they don't QE, the market will seek the 'safety' of US bonds. Negative rates, here we come.
What can I do to help?
So ! I'm walking back to my car. This kid does a"face pLANT" IN MY left quaRTER PANEL.
i OFFERED THE KID A JOB! Bitchez
Let's discuss Reality?
So once the ten year goes negative will making it more negative be a raise in rates?
eg: 10y trading -0.50% FED 'raises' rates to -1.50%
I personally think this is the rise in rates they have been talking about.
I want beautiful girls. Honest
OKay here's the trade, Short the $usd
The day after?
I love Lesbians.
But do real lesbians love you?
You've been drinking again, right?
I sure as hell hope Yen was drinking and hopefully quite heavily. All I see is that that he likes naked ladies and he does know what he is talking about regarding FX. What is wrong with that?
The collapse and attending volatility were anticipated by those with the right set of tools...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/how-to-tame-the-volatile-financial-ma...
why the DJIA didnt collapse today has me mystified, especailly after the SNB fiasco....maybe a Black Monday, then?
A friend of mine bought U.S. dollars a few days ago, exchanged Canadian dollars that is for U.S. dollars. He's betting the U.S. dollar will appreciate some more against the Canadian dollar. I doubt it's a good idea. Any opinions ? I think it's a bet that will go against him.
Eventually it must go against him. But this whole collapse is in slow motion. Its like we've just cut the bottom of a giant tree: nothing is holding it up, but it takes a while for the fall to get started.
I bet he will see good gains for six months as derivatives and/or foreign bonds collapse (speculators flee to the $US). If there is a physical squeeze on fiat gold/ silver market to the extent that physical prices skyrocket (speculators fleeing from the $US) then I would get out of $US ASAP.
I think physical gold would be a better bet for him, but I know he does have some. He bought some with bitcoins a while back, which he's also holding. He's not doing too bad I don't think. I've been waiting and expecting the U.S. dollar to crater for a long time now, but now it's gone way up again.
if they are silver $$ it will be a wash. if they are paper both are shit. should be buying CHF PAPER(the images are a lot nicer) LOL
Why is it that anyone is still taking talk of interest rate hikes seriously? It cannot happen without causing a catastrophic economic failure and that is why the likelihood of it happening is zero.
Meh , the longer something that is "not likely to happen" goes on not happening, the more likely it is to happen.
Bond(James) - "Do you expect me to talk?"
Gold(finger) - "No Mr Bond, I expect you to die!"
The idiots from 2008 are still working in the financial sector.
Sub-prime NINA (no income no asset) mortgages defaulting was a black swan event for them.
When they can be taken by surprise by NINA sub-prime mortages defaulting you wonder what their ten times global GDP deriavtives market looks like.
Anything could happen.