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"Weak" Market Closes Suggest Trouble Ahead For Stocks
While Friday's late-day 'buying panic' is the exception that proves the rule, the intraday performance trend of the stock market often gives clues to possible directional changes in the overall trend of the market. As Gavekal explains, one way to measure the intraday trend is to count the number of weak closes over a period of time, and the following chart shows, that trend of weak closes has shot up over the past few weeks to its highest level since 2012...
Gavekal define weak closes as days in which the closing price is within 25% of the intraday low.
The last time the indicator plunged this fast was into the 2011 market tumble.
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And that is happening as earnings expectations - the mother's milk of stocks - are getting smashed lower...
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And that is happening as credit markets are flashing as red as they have since the financial crisis began...
For the broad market...
And for financials more worryingly... 11-month highs in US bank credit risk
Of course, it took a while last time for stockholders to get the joke too...
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So to summarize - internals are collapsing, earnings expectations are plunging, and the credit cycle has turned... BTFD in Stocks?
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If you believe that we're on a ~7 year cycle, this makes sense. It takes the Fed 7 years to tire from huffing and puffing to inflate bubbles before it needs a rest. IMO, it is a cycle within a larger cycle. The question is, are we going to get another 7 years after this?
But. but. but, we have Plunge Protection, right?
Sarc off//
So did the Pharoh, who 10 times in vanity, fought reality itself
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagues_of_Egypt#mediaviewer/File:Martin,_J...
Well, when you take a look at a basic stock like XOM, high around 104 in July, and right now it's sitting at 91. How are the oil stocks managing to defy gravity??? Must be "plunge protection!"
Does a bear shit in the woods?
do priests like boys?
The dividend stocks are holding up as investors clamor for yield. Exxon is paying more yield than US 30 year bonds. It's the same reason McDonalds, Home Depot, and P&G are still hanging up there defying gravity.
I fully trust XOM and its management team with multi decade forecasts and AAA rating more than our .gov with the 'community organizer' and his backdoor team starring Reggie Love. Seriously, who would loan money to as bankrupt and corrupt a government as exists on the planet? For insightful reading I recommend The Great Deformation. Things will not get better from here.
Danielle Park seams to have a pretty good grasp of longterm secular cycles.
http://jugglingdynamite.com/2015/01/15/what-policymakers-miss/
this is gonna be fun
Since when do Fun Duh Mentals matter?
The USA has more than "just" oil and natural gas.
We've got hydro power (meaning WATER...which is far more valuable than the electricity), coal (one billion metric tons of year), nuclear power...over 100 operational plants, plus an entire "utility industry" (rate payers) to back that up.
Now we have Tesla's and "Goal Zero" which means almost zero usage of energy in transportation and for all those "madcap survivalists."
Good luck finding anything else like that on the face of the earth.
If the domestic economies finally begins to normalize (strong jobs creation...800,000 type prints) then first off you won't have to worry about inflation and second "these will be very productive employees" as they're being paid in dollars.
batteries are toxic, making them require lots of oil currently, drilling for metals and production. the only solution is to stop thinking we need all this crap.
funny how we want to fix the economy so we can consume more. economy is not the problem the need to consume more is the problem.
I went to through the drive through to get a drink and I have to tell them to go light on the ice to offset their stupid tactict of reducing cost by giving you more frozen water than chemicals by coke and pepsi. so this creates suspicion by consumers and do not have loyalty. so they spend more money on marketing to get customers. Lies, on top of more lies does not work. if they had the customers best interest at heart, you would not need to spend money on marketing, you will have customers for life. Funny how manipulation to get what you want just causes more problems. Tesla and Goal Zero are ways to feel better about consuming more. There are seven billion people on earth. can we make 7billion Tesla's? oh so only some get them? what 5%? then we have to convince the 95% they dont desearve one cus they were born in the wrong country and they dont have the right skin. the 95% dont understand you arguement and then demand start fighting to get a tesla too. so we build tesla bombers to make the 95% accept that they dont need Tesla's. so then only 4% get tesla's to drive. then 3% then 2% then....
Drive thru's...
How convenient it's become to get fat and lazy
These should be reserved for families with kids and handicapped people
Everyone else should have to shut their car off and walk in, just as needed for 99% of their other retail "needs"
Who the F decided banks and fast food demanded drive thru windows? Some fat lazy POS selling two way radios and sliding windows
What use is something like a Tesla if the energy to charge it comes from some smoke belching coal fired electric plant?
Fuck the S&P. The DAX is where it's at now.
When the S&P is back to 666 and the FED and Treasury don't bail out the corrupt banks/insurers/corporations we might begin to have a "market".
Oh yeah, and put that Corzine asshole in an orange jump suit.
just cus you have a market does not mean you will be happy, nor have friends, nor have clean water, fish you can eat, fresh air you can breath. our earth is filling with toxins and the cancer will not be solved by the market. A good start but there are bigger issue than how comfortable in our short lives.
fill that pipe with hopium and take a deep breath...
Uh...this time is different? The fed is proactive rather than reactive. Ole yellar has every angle covered, even crude. Charts are pretty though.
Fuck the banks and markets. I bought more silver Friday.
Love reading ZH, really do. Feels like some kind of 'home' from the madness.
But you know..... Whilst I am not buying into the mainstream bs, we seem to have been on the edge of something so many times that I am starting to think the pumping can go on a lot longer. I have to hand it to TPTB, they have been creative (if you call destroying the world for their own ideology creative).
K@
[ think the pumping can go on a lot longer.] Agree - peering at the GaveKal chart - the number looks like it is still *above* the median for 2004-2007. So maybe this market is getting back to a "normal" market, and there will be some more real "price discovery" (for example with the movement in the CHF) :-). As Hussman says: Air-Pockets, Freefalls and Crashes. YMMV. Take your Dramamine daily.
Me too.
But you know...the longer this "levering" of everything in the world goes on, the more unstable the whole pile of shit becomes. I guess the next thing we might see is the ECB buying all the crappy soverign debt from the insolvent banks in the broke countries of the EU--e.g. France, Italy, and Spain. Extend and pretend once more?
the longer this "levering" of everything in the world goes on...
Next up, USA claims and levers regions on Mars which puportedly have large quantities of exotic minerals after Rover makes a discovery ...
Market will move to new highs.
Markets will move to new bear market lower lows at 16,900 and 1950 after EU QE blows up.
lower lows...
way to much juju for the ppt to overcome.
Phuk me they need qe
It,s about our currency
To strong for energy not good for tradein free
Buy gold not the s&p
Tuesday will prove to be a huge down day. No amount of damage control will matter, the glacier has started to move.
The State of the U.S. Markets online conference available this week at EWI...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/the-state-of-the-u-s-markets-online-c...