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The ECB Will Fail Given The "History Lessons Of US And Japan", Warns Deutsche Bank
Recall that the stated purpose behind the reason why Mario Draghi's ECB is about to launch a European government debt monetization program ranging between EUR500 and 1000 billion is to halt deflation, spark credit creation and rekindle inflation. Alas, if that is indeed the case, then as Deutsche Bank said has already determined apriori, it will be a failure. Here's why from the biggest German bank.
First, a broad strokes preview of what the world's most confused Central bank will do this week:
[The ECB] is trapped down a dark alley and they will bite. For all the pros and cons of public QE as well as the hows and whens, at the end of the day the market has pushed the ECB into that corner. Within the context of the practical limitations of QE, we have no doubt that Draghi once again will leave a warm fuzzy feeling that they are prepared to do all that it takes. Of course, like OMT, it probably doesn’t mean they are buying BTPs come February 1st, but that doesn’t matter for BTPs. It also doesn’t matter for the Euro zone outlook given the dubitancy of QE efficacy.
And here is why the ECB too will follow its peers, the Fed and BOJ, in failing to boost inflation expectations which at last check were below the Lehman collapse levels and sliding fast (see "The Chart That Terrifies The Fed")
We suspect whatever the ECB “under delivers on” in substance, it will “over deliver” in terms of perceived commitment and Draghi rhetoric. So net it is hard to be very bearish on peripherals nor core markets. Core markets ultimately benefit from the perception that there just aren’t enough assets out there even for a small program of Euro 500 billion. As the table below shows the free float as defined by other investors is expected to be a paltry 26 percent this year (after Euro 300 billion in purchases for CY 2015). This compares with almost 50 percent in the US.
More importantly we doubt inflation expectations will spike sustainably higher on any announcement given the “failed” history lessons of US and Japan as well as doubts about QE making a difference quickly in the Euro zone. This really centers on the issues of the Euro zone’s different financial model (bank not security based) as well as the still ongoing deleveraging of the banks for regulatory purposes.
Ironic, because Zero Hedge pointed out precisely this distinction nearly three years ago in "A Few Quick Reminders Why NOTHING Has Been Fixed In Europe":
And we are also finally glad that with every passing day more and more banks, pundits and "straight to CNBC" experts wearing business suits realize what we said 6 years ago, namely that QE will never work as one can't fix a failed financial system due to record debt problem with more debt and even more props to support an even more failed financial system. And that QE has, is, and will continue failing... for everyone but the 1% of course, who with every passing day continue to tempt not only fate but the guillotines as well. Reference? See the French Revolution, because it is never different this time.
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So, "inflate away the debt" and print & tax yourself into prosperity really doesn't work, why...whocouldaknowed.
Time to round up some "economists" yet? ;-)
Financial Engineering: what a beautiful term. (Face Palm)
Liquidity Trap. The abyss of all monetary policy efforts.
LT's a re monetary phenomenon caused by non-monetary factors
More debasement of the Euro and the EU
Flights to gold and dollar to ultimately ensue.
A Global Currency War, in more ways than one.
PS What's good for Goldman is Good for God's Work and Mankind
Where do I sign up for the Committee of Public Safety. I wanna pull the lever.
Morality is obsolete, science if the order of the day and science says to print.
Beautiful.
Straight out of Orwell or Kafka's imagery of the kangaroo court in the NWO.
Guilty! Off with his head! PRINT! (The peasantry marches in circles, screaming "I love the ECB", burn the heretics!)
Oh shit, my lights just flickered. Happening more often when on The Hedge....
Hmmmmm
They're doing it......for the children.
Which of course...are going to be handed the bill.
Moar QE just means moar money for Fat cats at the top who simply push paper around and deposit the Loot into their secret accounts somewhere; very little if any is used for real growth.
One must be sure to differentiate between what you want and are dreaming will happen, and is most likely to happen. It is frustrating but helpful. During the reign of terror, the rasoir nationale usually ended up shortening political foes of assorted different powerful people, and apart from a few key Bourbons, did not flush all the roaches out of the kitchen. In the end it was the executioners in chief whose heads were in the basket.
Gerxit.
that was the farnese family and their jesuits reasserting control and punishing opponents, with periferal people killed for this or that.
Karen Hudes tell ya that?
"Fail" at what? This is the whole problem with analysis of what the criminal CB cartel is all about. They're using the computer technology to destroy all markets so that they can wipe 99.999% of the world wealth out and thus completely take over.
Failing markets are not and mass poverty are not a "fail" for these fuckers...it's all actually a complete success for them. This market destruction is all by design. They rule the cycles because they create the cycles. They've known for a very long time how this was going to play out because they control pretty much all aspects of the cycles on the upside and downside. They win either way, and it's designed to extract wealth and freedom from the entire world.
People have to stop thinking in terms like this in regards to corrupt gangster bankster, fasicst/statist corporations and their puppet government sociopaths.
Absolutely NOTHING about all that has so-called "failed" the free market system and what used to be our free society is considered a failure by these psycho fuckers. It has all been by design and always has been for hundreds of years. It has been their plan all along.
We're just trying to live through it and the vast majority of the "folks" have been horribly brainwashed into thinking and believing that these fucktards in charge have our best interests in mind.
Very few of us at this time actually understand what is really going on and how bad things really are. The Matrix comes to mind in this respect. Only those few of us who have figured out what the Matrix really is can understand what's really going on in this world right now.
NOTHING could be farther from the truth that any of this is a "failure" in their terms. This is all a fucking scam and it nearly always has been...a grand Ponzi scheme...a coupe de tat to take over the world...a criminal conspiracy to destroy all freedom and wealth in the world...to bring in complete tyranny and authoritarianism over the world...to kill almost everyone on the planet who will eventually oppose them or who are just the "useless eaters", etc.
This is not a "failure" by any means on their part. They are currently experiencing their greatest success yet over the past 100 years against us. They've dumbed down the world. Divided us on countless levels and have nearly conquered us.
This is a full-spectrum dominance of power and control, and sadly the only way we can beat them is by them winning first and collapsing the world.
Then the real fighting starts and humanity will have it's chance again to destroy these mother fuckers.
Yep, and that's not going to cause any growth nor inflation.
Well of course QE is no solution to anything, it just postpones imminent problems to some point in the near future. Unless it is a temporary emergency measure which gives time to deal with the real problems: Unsustainable debts and interest payments and, most of all, absurd levels of social inequality.
You use the time bought through QE to fix these two crucial points, and it starts making sense.
And postponement costs more and more as it is the flow that needs to increase and not the stock as any crack addict knows. Getting higher and higher, yet the latter is going down the hole.
The mouthpiece (WSJ) of the 'powers that be' is unhappy as is the IMF puppet of the 'elitists' as probably are the 'US and EU Illuminati' that Switzerland did not adhere to the protocol of playing along....the corrupt insider trading rules as dictated by the top CB's.
The system is broken and as I have said earlier, each country will do anything for their own survival, that started with India reducing interest rates suddenly but was overshadowed by the Swiss removing the useless unofficial peg.
Wait, until countries like Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, India etc band together and create new blocs like AIIB, SCO, BRICS bank etc and start using yuan or local currencies as trade currencies and reduce their trade with G7 countries.
It is best seen with Russian oil and gas as an example, whatever oil and gas was disrupted by EU not buying from Russia (due to retaliatory sanctions by Russia), Russia ended up selling it to the Turks or the Chinese. Russia didn't lose, but EU did further distancing itself -trade wise- from Russia and China for nothing. South Sea project being scrapped and then bought over by the Russians was another great example to the detriment of the EU.
EU is doomed from the start unless Euro is actually broken and all national states go to using their own currecnies within their own borders and provide each other a mechanism to alter their economic policies by appreciating or depreciating their currencies as and when required based on the trade amongst each other directly and not having political dreams being used to run economic policies, which is what the Swiss have shown happens when the economic polciies / losses collide with political motivations.
Why the news of India and Pakistan joining China and Russia does not make it to worldwide media is beyond me, because these are radical moves away froom the last 50 years of influence of the Westerm empires which is currently breaking down at a very rapid clip globally.
People, countries and ideologies etc always gravitate towards wherever the money is: which is in China!
10 Takeaways From Lagarde’s Swipe at the Swiss National Bank
Russia, China and India building new multipolar world order
Russia, China welcome India, Pakistan joining Shanghai Cooperation Organizationsun rises in the east!
The Chinese currency has been rising for about 20 years and is very stable including in 2008 when all currencies went haywire (mostly due to China's positive trade surplus, massive cash reserves and the country has been upgraded every 3 years since mid 1990's even by the 3 rigged rating agencies etc).
You should own yuan, as much as you can diversify into it, aside from the dollar (until it collapses) because one of the most important safe havens will always be the country which will be No 1 consumer and No 1 exporter and the largest user of electricity or cement, steel, oil, cars etc. which in one word is China.
RMB unlikely to depreciate drastically in 2015
That's all well and good except for the MASSIVE debt formation and Biggest bubble ever created not to mention the Chinese demgraphic problem. But as we all know the Chinese are just smarter than everyone else who has tried to keep the lid on things with a totalitarian/fascist/oligarchy shit show the call "government" so, of course, they will succeed where EVERY OTHER SOCIETY HAS FAILED thatis, until they don't which is when I do not want to be any of the Chinese underclass given their history of mass murder when it fits their economic, political, or social needs.
They have until 2017 when the Olympic curse will rear its ugly head. Nine years after the Bejing dog & pony show. Just like Moscow (1980) and just like Germany (1936)
Of course we here in 'Murika aren't in any much better shape. But we CAN exist on our own if need be where China cannot feed itself, or much else for that matter. good luck with that.
Oh and one might notice the capital flight FROM China by those close to The Party as they park their ill gotten treasure overseas and set up escape routes for if and when China takes a tumble. What do those guys know that all the China mouthpieces do not?
artless:
I marked you up since I think you make good points, BUT I think there's a bigger picture that may be forming here; and that is, China isn't alone in the same way the US is. For resources and military strength, China has a partnership with the Russians. (Just as Russia has a partner in China, to defend against currency attacks.) Sure, this partnership is not the BFF artificial "we'll always be friends" hypocrisy of the "west" - everyone, including in the SCO, seems to show a mature awareness that at some point national interests will divide. But, in terms of a very large organisation defined by a common enemy (the Anglo-Zionist threat), for the time it takes for that enemy to be contained, it seems to be working very well.
I regard the purchases by China of "western" RE & assets less as capital flight, and more as investment. For example, buying Greek ports isn't such a bad idea if you're China, you're wanting to put your collapsing dollars to good use, and your business partner Russia is building a gas pipeline that ends up against Greece. To my eyes, this is a partnership that Iran began, by working around the USD stranglehold on oil through barter trade, and has now grown organically to include most of the world. I see this as a process beginning now, of "scaling up", and I think China is leading this process although Russia is the most visible actor.
I also note that China's leadership, in President Xi, has made a very big show of purging the old guard. (As in its own way, Russia seems to be doing.) This of course does not mean they have purged all corruption from government, but certainly the "old guard" criminals, including those who may have been more sympathetic with the "west", may be looking for places to run with their money. This could be called "capital flight", but it isn't the kind that is going to sink them IMHO. They may not be running from China taking a tumble, but from China catching up to them.
Will China take a tumble? Certainly. As will/is the "west", Switzerland, Russia, etc. But I think they'll easily survive it, based on a new "world order" that seems to be forming, that includes the "west" only as one rather impoverished player among many others.
Just two cents' worth from a peasant spectator.
I know we want to see the Goldman Sach slanted pool table dismantled but are you serious when you think China is going to do a better job? You lost me there.
Transparency is the fundamental stength of a capital market, and the US had that for a while. The others can try to break up the monopoly but the key to getting investment and projects off the ground is knowing people can't legally steal you money.
The rule of law is dead and will not peaceably be reinstated.
Bob,
I don't believe you are following the anti corruption 'crusade' close enough. It is impacting both 'tigers and flies'. Thousands of prostitutes have been arrested or fled the country. Macau is slowing down due to same. The luxury good sales have declined in China last year. All political persons have sold almost 90% of their property holdings including overseas ones.
All this is great for the country.
Any country who focuses on increasing the GDP, reducing corruption, providing stability in currency, making their banks, oil companies, cement companies the largest in the world and sending people to the moon while having a large military is doing a fantastic job in my view, especially when executing the largest urbanization project through migration without much of a noise in the history of the world!
China's GDP in 1993 was USD 423bn
1998 was 1,020bn
2003 USD 1,450bn
2008 was USD 3,490bn
2014 is USD 9,240bn
That's a Gigantic growth of 21 times or 2,184% in 20 years and this is just the start. Show me one more country who did this growth so fast?
The US did the same over a period of 41 years from 1960 to 2001 when it grew from about USD 500bn to USD 10,920bn in its GDP. That was the best US could do, in its best years, now it runs on fake printed money to artifically inflate its GDP and runs its banks, car companies and real estate companies on faux capitalism model hence the last decade does not even count!
Transparency to the fullest extent is impossible anywhere in the world, we can only hope that it improves in China just like any other. I have not heard any major scandals of 'legally stealing' anyone's money in China in a while. such things happen everywhere, just look at US who is assisting rebel fighters (use your own words here) in Syria using tax payer's funds. How do you explain that for transparency? I dare you to show this news in just one Western media for McCain visiting Saudi today!
America brings lack of transparency as well as hypocrisy together and shows it jointly at its best!
McCain heads US delegation to Saudi Arabia to discuss SyriaMeanwhile, I do believe China is going in the right direction.
Xi Vows to Wage Enduring Anti-Corruption Campaign in ChinaHe obviouslly has ulterior motives for the anti-corruption campaign (i.e., eliminate enemies). Nevertheless, the anti-corruption campaign has exceeded the expectations of most knowledgeable China observers.
There is clearly a tectonic global power shift underway and everything is easier to decipher in that light. The Neocon attack on Russia for example is an attempt to interfere with the Russo/Chinese energy/merchantile alliance.
The writing is on the wall for the Western fiat globalists and the days of the red, white and blue hegemon. All their dreaming about an NWO will come to nothing.
The "neo-cons" did not attack Russia.
And what exactly is Russia defending by attacking here anyways?
Putin is a dope.
If he'd taken Kiev and reinstalled the overthrown elected guy that would have made sense, yes? Instead he's prancing about like Queen Victoria while getting bogged down in the Crimea.
Besides...everyone knows the NWO is run by reptilians.
ulterior motives, yes and no. They are probably involved, yet I do think the CPC is well aware of the fact that corruption hinders the economic development in the regions. They do have some long-time planning, unlike certain other countries.
Yet it is also true that esp. higher ranks close to the party are preparing their escape routes -why? Bc of internal problems which they think will trigger a desaster, or bc they don't want to end up in jail at some point? Or simply bc Europe or NZ are more pleasant societies to live in?
Transparency is a philosophy which is the ultimate form of honesty. Imagine if your society was so accepting that nobody had anything to hide. Of course it makes it hard for things like intellectual property. I am not sure it is possible, but as a concept it is cool.
I agree China is amazing in ways. So was Russia in its day, going from near feudalism to the first people into space in 50 years. What always kills you is your own elites' greed.
In China I have to say when you walk some of the dark sidestreets at night, it is amazing how safe you feel. It still looks to me like there are issues with crooked financial black pools, but that is only what I have read.
Dubaibanker:
Great informative links. Holy cats, this is happening faster even than I thought it would. In my own crystal-ball speculating, I'm beginning to think new currency for North America (or the Federal Reserve system of banks, anyway) earlier this year rather than later.
"It is important to practically launch the process of expanding the organization,” Morgulov said in the interview published on the Russian Foreign Ministry website on Tuesday. “All decisions necessary for that have been taken at an SCO summit in Dushanbe in September last year." (from your TASS link)
"There are different expectations from Russian government that new course in India will fortify Indo-Russian partnership and many signals go in this direction; as well as it could be possible a strategic alliance with China, considering many fields of joint cooperation. The world order is changing and Western countries should take into account the complex network of relations involving Russia, India and China and other Asian countries. These regional powers are no longer only spokesman of an emergent world seeking voice in an anachronistic international system, considering for example India and China aspirations to reorganize board of United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Furthermore, Russia, India and China are not only characters of multilateral forums such as BRICS or G-20, but they are already proponents of deep bilateral relations and bearer of new systems of payment in international trade, considering the use of national currencies than could potentially change future global balances of power. These are clear exemplifications of the emergence of a multipolar world order." (from your Pravda link)
Could this announce the "scaling up" that should follow the establishment of all those remnimbi trading hubs from the last few years?
Yes, yes..."but Zero Hedge said this was what was going to happen!"
After India, Pakistan and Iran, S Korea and Turkey will be next. If Turkey hasn't changed sides already.
Hey, this is a monumental downward turn for the west - would you seriously expect their media to mention it?
Our western media didn't even have the guts yet to frankly tell us we lost central Asia to the SCO.
Did you see the cat crossing in front of the stairway exactly the same way, a second, or even third time?
The "Lessons of History" is an oxymoron. When was the last time any of these so called "leaders" looked at history before making decisions?
Its like the matrix movie. It goes in circles until the one arrives. A person of greatness that does not fear death and can only do what needs to be done. Snowden and Segura are from this stock. Ron paul is of this stock. these people arevbuild to see the greater good that last beyond themselves. One day someone will arrive, probably when we need it the most when the public is ready, the one can do must needs to be done. Wake up the masses and see that focus on your self is an empty endeavour. More you succeed the bigger the trap. Accept failure and be weary of success. That is the true lesson humans evolution or else will be the same trap of seeking better, which is just a created thought. Reality is you arrived on earth with no effort of your own, there is nothing to save.
" Just look at this chrome plated turd, ain't it beautiful? And don't woory there's plenty more where that came from"
It's nit about inflation, it's about giving govt deficient spending, and buying garbage bonds from banks.
Right, and to get sovereigns used to having an all encompassing commitee in a far away land strangle thier children in the crib.
Science today is a ponzi. Study quantum particle theory and you find out nothing is fixed. Its all temporary. Trying to build knowledge in a fix rigid way can turn into lies validating lies. Intuition and instinct that has been instilled through physical tests over thousands of generation are simpler and more reflective of reality. Simple and slow has its advantages. Which species do you think will out live the other, humans or ants?
THE DANSE MACABRE OF THE CURRENCIES HAS BEGUN, AGAIN.
Jesus, balsted bankers and defended hookers :) i like that jesus
Draggi dah druggie ... hard-arm drugs next.
May he be aptly named by history as "Mario Dragheap"....Double entendre is sublime when the undoing is sub prime (rated AAA)
@newman..............dont forget to round up the TRIBE bankers
MONETARY MASTURBATION bitchezzs
I think you gave me an unearned vowel in there...lol...but yes, I'm for equal opportunity trial & execution.
not sure how you coulda left out the bankers out of your original comment........too many beers last nite?
Do you have (as in your original salutation to me) something you would like to say directly to me? You need to say it or STFU, this isn't a place where speech codes are enforced or political correctness is normal.
The symbiotic relationship between bankers, economists, government and press is well known here, I also didn't mention welfare queens or foreign aid.
Would you like my list so you can check for your approval?
''Time to round up some "economists" yet? ;-)''
as if rounding up the economists will solve our problems
..just seemed like a odd comment to me and I dont believe Ive ever heard that before on ZH..........no need for you to get bent out of shape....
A subtle misdirection on your part?
You don't think young aspiring bankers are graded on their understanding of the "finer points" of Keynesian/socio-economics at universities world-wide by professors who claim to be economists? That some of those "economists & bankers" don't wind up on governmental bodies like puss filled boils ready to lance?
And the only "subtle misdirection" in our little interaction here was your referring to me as newman (childish) and I even gave you a pass on that and you pretending that the central bank of China or Russia is (apparently) run by some sort of "tribe".
What tribe would that be boi?
last I checked, it was the tribe banksters that printed the money and stole your labor thru the INTEREST(USURY), not the economists.........
but whatever........your original comment stands
Death to the economists.........LMFAO
Authorizing the printing of money is a function of the state, Austan Goolsbee, Christina Romer, Paul Krugman etal are "economists" who advocated for that money to be printed from thin air and all advised the state to take that course, so they don't get a pass from me and they shouldn't from you.
Did I or did I not say symbiotic relationship and what part of that concept escapes you?
////
As I said:
"And the only "subtle misdirection" in our little interaction here was your referring to me as newman (childish) and I even gave you a pass on that and you pretending that the >>>central bank of China<<< or Russia is (apparently) run by some sort of "tribe".
Time has a way of removing any & all doubts about "tribalism" doesn't it?
Refer to me as___from now on, idiot.
Do you think that the sheep would stand for the shearing without a consistent refrain from the 'economists' that goober policy and business as usual from the banksters are what we need?
But keep apologizing for their apologists; makes you look like a freakin' genius that.
So how are things over at NSA anyway? It's either that or you are a graduate student at an ivy league school studing eCONomics.
Be careful not to give yourself away, some of these ZH members are somewhat "unpredictable".
as if rounding up the economists will solve our problems...
Well if we guillotined Krugman first seeing as he seems to be the one pushing the QE argument ... more ... more ... The next economist might not be so enthusiastic to promote econ omic ideologies like QE that will likely be the biggest failure of our time.
The politicians CANNOT SPOUT LIES ABOUT THE ECONOMY if they do not have economists to imply the politicians are correct.
That economists promote failed ideologies to pursue their own self interests and pay not price for THE HARM CAUSED BY THEIR FAILED ECONOMIC IDEOLOGIES.
Nope, rounding all economists up a start then any economist promoting flawed arguments like QE that makes matters worse.
AS A POINT THOUGH WHEN DOES ALL THE ARTIFICIAL QE START BEING REMOVED FROM THE SYSTEM BECAUSE IT DID NO GOOD?
NEVER! Therefore QE is now no longer a temporary measure the economists spout but a pernament one. So where was yours or my free wedge of cash?
as if rounding up the economists will solve our problems...
Rounding up Keynesian economists...and shooting the would help......
". . . but now I laugh and pull so hard
And see you swinging on the gallows pole. . ."
ok i've seen the large blocks of black in replies many times here, i feel stupid for asking but is there any text there or am i missing the symbolism behind it?
not trying to be a smart ass at all, i feel like i'm missing something thats obvious...
He posted a picture. Is it not showing up? Its Draghi in what looks like a room full of money
all of this nonsense about achieving some acceptable level of inflation is simply a deflection of the truth of their intentions. in reality, the CBs of the world have hijacked its economy. they've taken it prisoner and have tried to change its nature with manipulations. they will ulitamately fail though. an economy is a reflection of a society's labor and the wealth created from this labor. being as the CBs, Wall St and the rest of the paper pushers offer no material production from labor, yet reap all its wealth is the most telling sign of all. after a while there is no one left to steal from and they all begin to turn on each other: the rats go cannibal. this is the wisest take-away from the SNB debacle. look for more of it in the climax to the great crash. and as difficult as this crash will be to the people of the world who do labor intensively to create its wealth, it will actually be the people's greatest opportunity to take back what is theirs.
Without inflation government has to pay off their massive debt at full price and you know how likely that is.....
Governments don't have a say in the matter, the CB's are private and own the governments and the multiple paper claims on assets hole in the bottom of the boat is bigger than the bucket they have to bail it out. They will burn every government down to the ground and could give a shit about them.
"Time to round up some "economists" yet? ;-) ---
Forever the optimist nmewn?
I do agree, these criminals need to be held accountable and the business cycle needs to be allowed to clear out the bad debt and bad actors.
Interesting times my friend, but hey, the ammo is still dirt cheap in my view...
so there's that.
Apologies for the thread hijack but is anyone aware of the AIG executive found dead in a golf pond? I thought it odd that ZH had not commented on this yet considering the number of suicided bankers/financial guys. And double apologies if I missed this one here already.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/01/18/body-missing-aig-executive-found-in...
CB's are a plague on humanity. I'm weary of reading about what this one or that one may do. All they can do is print, period.
They are pretty good at stealing too.
Back to the future.
No generation has fucked over future generations more than the generation in charge now. We're gonna need a pretty big wall to line these guys up against.
Aren't most of these turdwads from the Hippi Generation? Nuff said. Or would that be Nuff Smoked, Nuff Tripped, Nuff Main Lined..........
They are just transferring the Love-Ins to Money-Ins.
Not the drugs and alcohol. Those are by symptoms of the problem.
The problem is self-absorption, egocentricity and childish attitudes all wrapped in a firm belief that they are the smartest, cleverest, most noble people in a Godless room.
They are their very own Higher Powers
The gene pool always has a shallow end. The problem is electing people from it.....
I came up amongst them, shaking my head all the way.
no money, no honey.
Nah, at this point we can just deny them cheap Lipitor and watch them all seize up.
Do it until it hurts, after that, keep doing it.
I hear the Chinese have a pretty big wall. Useful for lining people up.
Odds are that soon you'll be able to get it cheap. Just give them a few Swiss Francs or a couple of oz of atomic number 79.
As long as the peasants are entertained and there's food on their table nothing will change.
I think that the required technologies are still infant, fragile or yet to be developped to overcome plutocracies, so we destined to face several identical powergrabs after the collapse of the current clusterfuck.
It's basically the same old cycle since the invention of money.
The internet, bitcoin, blockchain based - decentralized publishing, information sharing and voting systems, meshnets, p2p end-to-end encrypted communication channels, etc. are the technologies which have the potential to reform our society for the better.
Note how much interest Obama has taken in the internet lately. "We need a free and open net". If that isn't code for "we're going to destroy the net as you know it" I don't know what is,
From my cold dead hands.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTdO-w3xnpw
90' web is lost in past of good ol'days, see web of 2k10+.. without 3 anti add software you cannot display properly any single page....
internet is too mainstrain, too on the way, too used, too monetized, internet is standard model for marketing, for publication, for media - due to it intrinsect nature of dematerialized format vehiculing digital - actuals contants...
network are killing remaing sociability between humans, internet is killing us. nobody is conscious about it. it is devastating for youth education, smartphones are replacing brains and ability to self think, you make money when you developp an .app that remove a part of thinkin of a human to put in a phone. and astonishing point is everybody is celebrating this way of life. sorry, i don't.
it is a reality, einstein announced it decades ago, ZH made a post about it weeks ago too. it is over, elite is wining by turning dumb as fuck any single human adicted to technology, survivalism is not about ammo, gun, growth, it is just about living away from any media source and digital world, to keep normal functionning brain.
Technology is a tool. You can use it to many things, some people choose to waste time watching porn and read rubbish, it doesn't mean that it's generally bad or that it's not useful.
It would be nice if the ZH peasants would realize this. There are already amazing tools to undermine the status quo but it's like giving an MP5 to a sheep when it comes to most people who frequent this site.
Speaking as a ZH peasant using a technology tool, I'd have liked to upvote you but you started with italics.
I agree that a tool in itself is neither bad nor good, but how one uses it is what matters. Those who just surrender the internet to the oligarchs, simply because those oligarchs are trying to control it, have already defeated themselves. Maybe we should just sign over all our guns to govvy too, while we're at it, because the government is trying to control those too - at least by that reasoning.
As soon as any technology or tool appears, gov tries to control it. That's been the same since before the appearance of the printing press. Doesn't mean you give up on that tool or technology, just b/c gov tries to take it away from you. The answer, of course, is to work in both large and small ways, whatever you're capable of, to defund gov programs and undermine its overreach.
Government regulation of the internet (possibly the last truly free frontier in the world) is what worries me most. The internet has parallels to the Gutenberg printing press and the pamphleteers of the Pre-American Revolution. I am afraid we (those that love liberty) are done-for without it. How do we resist this?
Do you all ever wonder about the fact that only about 15,000 people frequent this site regularly? Am I wrong about this? I certainly hope so, because that represents only 0.005% of the American population and ZHers come here from around the world (not just America).
I've been thinking about this for years and I'm gonna bounce it off this community. How do we organize for success? All this tough talk about violent revolution seems like faux bravado. I've got a business and a family. I can't get shot in the first few hours of a revolution that none of you punks show up for!
Are there other ways?
For starters, Is there a way to decentralize the internet so that it remains in the hands of "the people". If that requires a thousand of us to do something, spend some money and invest in some infrastructure, I'm in.
I'm really ready to do something, but I wish I knew what to do.
Great questions. Here are my suggestions.
<<I've been thinking about this for years and I'm gonna bounce it off this community. How do we organize for success? All this tough talk about violent revolution seems like faux bravado. I've got a business and a family. I can't get shot in the first few hours of a revolution that none of you punks show up for!>>
IMHO, looking at past revolutions is barking up the wrong tree. Guns and bloodshed and cannons and bullshit. First, in a conventional style "revolution", how would any of us know it wasn't some psy-op we were joining, just to scoop up the "revolutionaries" in one convenient place and gun them all down right there? Or attack their families while they were away? Or it turns out to be another fucked-up colour revolution paid for by George Soros? The truth is, none of us could be sure of what we were joining.
Today, think "guerrilla". Gradually withdraw from systems that you know are corrupt: fractional reserve fiat, transacting with government debt-shares, depending on their handouts or entitlements, sharing your information. Disappear from their records. Don't answer questions, withdraw trust. Don't watch their media. Debunk lies, drop jargon, tell the truth to those who are trustworthy.
Second, form relationships in the community (or move to a community where this is feasible, if you're currently stuck in FSA-land). Get to know your family, earn some trust. Learn about barter and how to do it. Support alternative currency systems, and LOCAL government to the degree that it's independent and uncorrupted. Look to countries where the NWO is being defeated. Today's warrior must be creative. (For example, a guy who made pizzas for a living stored his gold in the back of a disused pizza oven for awhile.)
A different mentality is required. I've learned a lot reading bloggers from Eastern Europe (info from after the fall of the Soviet Union, for example), and the Middle East. In some ways, they know what they're doing better than we do since they've been dealing with the dark side of the NWO for longer.
Violence is the way of the past, that good old American way of punch 'em in the mouth and don't take an insult. Now, it's important to be diplomatic, cultivate independence, not throw trust around. It has to be an individual thing. The American and French revolutions - those are the past. The Middle East, Eastern Europe, China - these are who to learn from - all on the quiet.
<<For starters, Is there a way to decentralize the internet so that it remains in the hands of "the people". If that requires a thousand of us to do something, spend some money and invest in some infrastructure, I'm in.>>
No, I don't think so, no. But then, what's new. Govvy was all over the printing press since it began - has that stamped out all thought and literacy? No, it's grown despite that. (We should be wise what we publish: learn to read between the lines.) Govvy always has the best weapons and medicine - has that stopped our ability to defend or heal ourselves? Govvy establishes central banks and fractional reserve (or no reserve) fiat - has that stopped our ability to save our resources? Nope. We must evolve: if one way leads to loss, try something else. If people dismiss your attempts because there's no established pattern of success, you may be on the right track.
We need to accept that govvy presence is here to stay, BUT it can be limited, worked around, even worked with on occasion. I don't think they should be feared any more than they should be trusted. The Quiet Way (as I think of it) begins in the mind. Oh, and voting for crooks is a waste of time - don't do it.
It's a hell of a learning curve. Wealth no longer exists in any kind of paper, but in 1) real assets, incl. consumables; and 2) expertise. It will take all the time we have, just to learn and build these.
<<I'm really ready to do something, but I wish I knew what to do.>>
I'm with you there. For all the years I've been into this - since 2006 to be exact - I've wished someone could forge the way ahead and then come back and tell me what to do and how to do it. (Yes, I'm a product of the modern "education" system.)
We must look at our individual circumstances, and get creative at using those to make a unique path. Your UNIQUENESS will be your salvation. Like it or not, YOU are the pathbreaker, early in a century that will be nothing like the last one. Maybe read some pioneer history, how they built things, coped with scarcity. Accept the risk of this.
The centralised beast is dying. It's starving as more of us quit feeding it. But we have to stop relying on it for anything. You're ready to do something? Start a vegetable garden. Learn to make your own soap, detergent, tools, weapons, clothes, home medicine, as many things as possible. Learn about barter and alternative currencies. Learn to survive off-grid. Find secure storage places in your own home, make sure they're various. Learn how to save resources and add to your stores in every way you can. Learn how to keep secrets and how to NOT answer questions.
IMHO, those who want a revolution are looking for a fast way to stop the corruption and return to the old ways all cleaned up. I think this is not going to happen. It's a whole new way of survival now, relying on yourself, your family, and your neighbours; gradually forming new security networks and "quiet" markets.
In my own mind, I sometimes call this the Quiet Way, and sometimes the Guerrilla Way. So that's my replies to your questions, anyway. Be interesting to hear from others. (ETA: shit what a wall of words. Sorry about that.)
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2015-01-17/elon-musk-and-spacex-pla...
Double-post
will never happen-alternative networks will be created...
it is the enforcement you must watch out for...
but we have _____.
wil they get used?
hmmmm
I do believe there will be a day (in the not too distant future) when the US Gov will shut down the internet...even if for a short period of time.
I'll know the shit just got real when I open my browser and get nothing but 404 error codes.
.
I'm going to disagree with you slightly. I've been telling my family / friends this shit for a couple or 3 years now, always on deaf ears. Finally last night, I go for some beers with friends, and low and behold, they ask me about financial markets, and what the fuck is happening, and I seen some actual interest in their 'stocks'. Finally, I just told them to read this site, like I have been for 3 years. Or search it on the fucking computer. It's grade 3 math. 'x' debt + 'x' tsxpayers + 'x' QE. Do the math, and wake the fuck up.
I too have started to notice a difference, people are starting to "wake up" IMO, soon the heard will smell the smoke...
The theatre has caught fire. We are in the uneasy calm, between when people are wondering what the smell is, and the panic when someone yels fire.
Actually, the math looks more like this:
(Debt x QE)/taxpayers = Total debt swindled from each taxpayer.
Now, keep in mind that around 50% of people are not taxpayers, and therefore don't pay taxes...
Football, DWTS, The Voice and EBT.
YES! This gives hope.
So many here offer arm-chair analysis -- often correct -- about our (US) failing economy and state. Overcoming the plutocracy is the end game, is it not? Its what we all want to do, to press that "reset" button in reality, not just in prose.
The notion that budding technology may provide the means by which we overcome the plutocrats is a hopeful first step.
Still, I'm not sure what we're waiting for, what we need that we don't already have. If I want to contact people, I could pick up my phone. Yes, that message could be encrypted both ways, but the point is that I don't have a few thousand acquaintances to call.
I think the overturn of the plutocrats will happen when they screw up so badly they run away. At that point, the new batch will be waiting in the wings. Those are the ones that have to be "neutralized" before they assume power or we'll just have plutocracy 2.0.
The SNB jumped ship already, who's next?
And who will walk the plank?
The SNB is positioning its currency on the sideline for the next QE round, which is significant. However, the Swiss are still playing the game, as evidenced by the national vote NOT to re-prioritize gold use in their currency. It's very typically Swiss. They are never going to be leaders on the world stage, but they dont have to be in order to continue to enjoy a high level of peace and prosperity. All they have done (and continue to do) is to position themselves to be a rapid follower when the winning move is made. Also, to avoid getting crushed by the wheel as it rolls by.
if the ECB fails is there any need for the EU?
Yes. That is one big NWO block. Just like they want to join the North American Union. Then on to whip Russia and China in line.
Clearly not working but they'll try to hold that mess of shit together like it was your 98yo grandmother that can't walk and shits all over herself everyday and needs $10k a month to survive just to continue her pathetic existence all the while making everyone around her completely miserable.
Then on to whip Russia and China in line.
sun rises in the east, and that may be the story as the west sets.
that is the whole story we watch as it morphs...
There never was a need for an EU and the Euro has already failed.
I disagree. As long as you can walk into a store in Europe and buy goods with Euros, you cannot say the Euro has failed. Keep it real.
The real question is: how many Euros will it take to buy the goods?
That's how you can tell a currency has failed.
A cup of coffee in America used to cost a dime. Now a "tall" from starbucks costs $4, and a cheap cup from anywhere costs $1 at the very least.
Prices doubled when the Euro came. It was NOT worth it!
FAIL
Maybe they knew it wouldn't do anything but benefit the 1% to begin with. And maybe the EU will do it anyway (most likely) just to extend the shell game.
Meanwhile this gives the clowns in charge lots of free time to spew lies on a daily basis, dragging everyone along, and in the midst of it frantically try to figure out how they're going to stay in charge and keep us all under control. Thus the destruction of the constitution.
IMO there actions will be like QE. It will never workout how they want it but on the other hand they'll drag all of us thru hell and end up leaving us there.
"Draggging everyone along"
I think you misspelled Draghi
People need to wake up and see through the TBTJ and owned media narrative that it is the fault of the Central Banks. The Central Banks inherited the financial asset ponzi from TBTJ which places phantom AND SENIOR financial claims on real flows of value from labor and actual savings ( production less consumption ) and then concentrates "wealth" and control by frontrunning boom/bust cycles.
TBTJ have been starving the real economy (collecting IOER rather than investing in the real economy). TBTJ controls (and thoroughly abuses that control) the effective money supply and as soon as others have leveraged up (like oil), it collapses others for a margin call (that it never faces).
Having said all that, we can end TBTJ. Simply liquidate essentially fraudulently priced financial assets (NFLX, AMZN, CMG) to raise cash and buy gold. There are orders of magnitude more fraudulent fractional reserve banking financial assets than real assets. By converting to cash and gold equally, you are guaranteed to win over the long haul.
hunger games the hanging tree
no easy death for banksters
The fundamental concept of QE is actually 'sound' - basically placing more cash in banks at lower interest rates so they can lend to borrowers at lower interest rates. The failure 'in practice' is that banks are no longer 'banks' and instead take that money and speculate with it, rather than lend it.
Risk is not qualified any more, so can not be estimated or quantified. Since risk in this printing regime is impossible to determine then the price can not be determined.
The risk has always defined the prices of many things in the past, so we have no way now to determine the price of many things.
So loans and investments are made on highly risky assets without due diligence.
Is there any company now that books their numbers using GAAP ?
Didn't many companies boost their prices by borrowing cheap money and buying their own product and/or stock ?
House of Cards.
Risk can be quantified .....we lose it all while they gain it all.
its only risk if you assume it.
It's 'sound' in a scenario. The reason the banks don't lend is because of a debt saturated consumer on the back of an ebb in population, along with limited return on investment for corporate borrowing, which is partly the effect of the former. Then there is technology, which pushes all corporate investment into efficiency, and there is a limit there. No one can borrow or wants to borrow for a legitimate reason. It's like pouring water into a full bucket.
Even more basic, it's just a lack of real growth in the economy- lack of new industry, innovation, and expansion, because we've exported the necessary elements of such. The oil shale fantasy was supposed to represent the majority of the expected "growth" the Fed was targeting, but oops- that just went bust.....
Now what, Janet? That's right- Al and Ben stuck you with the goods, and you're the tool that will have to make the tough choices, such as allow REAL deflation-
But Mrs Doubtfire will kick this can down the street as long as she can, propping up Fed chiefs with statements like "Extreme action is still on the table" for as long as that bullshit trick works- until it doesn't one day.
Quantitiative easing is like pumping more and more gas into a stalled engine. It gets harder and harder to start and if it ever does get a good spark the results are unpleasant.
I think of it as pumping air into a tire with a big hole in it, both are futile.
It's more like pumping air into a tire still on the rim of the car, and it's a tiny hole.
The result of doing that can be...catastrophic, if you're unlucky.
SNB simply acted!
And everyone needs to do the same. Just decouple from the euro and go back to their respective national currencies.
Swiss as a good neighbor tried for 3 years to support the Euro and used their valued currency to do it.
After 3 years it did not work out.
Don't keep throwing good after bad.
That uncle you keep giving loans to, that fuck up kid who gets into crisis after crisis, it is way beyond time to say no. Boundaries are excellent, even when the uncle and kid tell you that you must not love them any more if you don't help them.
and it is that simple, learn when to cut your losses, early...
I think of QE as showing up to a poker game with a pocket full of chips you did not " buy" from the house. I'd be betting stupid on every hand. Why not? If I win, I win BIG. If I loose, no big deal....it didn't cost me anyhow.
HA! This one made me laugh in real life. God that was startling, to me AND my cats.
I have a feeling the other two pigs alan and ben ate all the food and yellin got nothin to eat. we shall see. you know the churib smile of her will not last over her term. as grandma does not smile when she find that she has no cookies for the kids.
Re: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"
If we ever survive this Central Bank Ponzi Scheme ....
... I do hope Zerohedge sticks around afterwards .
PS: Maybe ZH could replace the SEC ?
;-)
When one gets past the anger stage, the sheer humor of what greed has brought our elites to do gets to be overwhelming.
when you laugh, you know it is true. kings used to have jestors to keep them grounded. there are no jestors today, I vote george carlin.
but this SNL presidental reunion skit is pretty good. They where too optimistic with Obama at the time but pretty funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79pvVpN7-9s
Off-topic that deserves a post on ZH:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.br/2015/01/in-charlie-hebdo-psyop-doub...
:-)
vineyard link to soral ... vineyard = shit.
period.
Maybe it is finally time to mortgage the chalet and buy gold (instead of saving first to buy).
We live with a system based on exponential growth. We need to somehow set a system that is balanced. But to do that, we will ,for example ,have to limit the baby making machines we see in so much of the world.
I swear, Idiocracy has went from a 2 bit comedy, to a documentary.
If we don't do it, nature will do it for us.
how dare you talk about 7 plus billion as unsustainable.
any volunters to die to save mankind?
I was chatting with a chinese chick the other night and she said her mother had had four kids because she was desperate to have a boy. Despite the fact that they're not rich and they have to pay extra taxes to fund any babies past the allowed one. As we head towards 50% unemployment I was tempted to say, "Gee your mother is really fucking dumb." But I guess then I wouldn't have gotten laid.
new game, there is an old plan. Get earth human numbers below a billion. Search google for preppers. Be a moderate one.
if this unfolds as i think, being a moderate one is wise. key to any survival is minimum movement.
go sit in the woods and observe survival. natural selection favors patience and smart movement, mainly for food. these rules are somewhat universal even to humans, but especially if society breaks down...
certainly wish for a different outcome, but all signs indicate big troubles for merica and mankind around the globe, all ongoing as the thirst for modern life or "the easy life" spreads via oil consumption. sumtin gonna give in a big way.
i like to think humans under extreme duress will act like wolves and roam in packs. choose you pack carefully.
tornado and water stuff all around the globe is making the job : go back from water to upper land, then earthquake to embush em.
estimated time, every millerna a serious wave of cataclysm to self clean the surface..
earth is like a female vagina, after a serious mess all the way inside, the process of self cleaning make it all wet.
".. the process of self cleaning make it all wet."...... WTF!!!!!! Son your Daddy missed out explaining a few facts about women.........
This view is directionally correct, but fails to correctly specify WHICH type of adults the world fewer of. The world needs fewer semi-literate 'taker' adults. When you provide very nicely for adults who choose not to provide for themselves, they tend to reproduce more like insects. This happens until all the resources are used up, at which point there is a mass die-off.
Yeah popluation control would be a good start..... I think Sara Silverman makes the point quite well in her "Lady Parts Justice Movement"....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahdR6aHQvMQ
Central banking has formed into a new being on this planet. It is like the Star Trek movie where an enormous structure is build upon a damaged Voyager 6 by living machines who name the planet that emerges V’ger.
Today’s QE experiments are like V’Ger’s simple programming of “learn all that is learnable and return that knowledge to the creator" Unfortunately we have learned nothing from these continuous financial experiments except to build more financial experiments regardless of the present and future outcome…
From Deutsche Bank? I'm guessing the real and fundamental reason for Eurozone QE is to rescue the banks that will fail if they allow Greece or one of the others to exit the cartel. Which would include Deutsche Bank. Spurring inflation is just a headline fake that the MSM can use as their message to soothe the masses.
lol. it was the SNB after all.. you.. know.. that quaint lil place that was happy to receive melted gold teeth and such from people treated like cattle...
ALL CENTRAL BANKS REPORT TO THE BiS
there is NO AUTONOMY, only scripted theater, illusion.
"pricing" monopoly money against other monopoly money.. "markets".. roflz.
this wasnt secret, independant, cautious, or anything else. it serves the same people that control FED, ECB, BOJ, etc, ad nauseum...
most of thesecentral banks are run by ex gold man sacks tribe fuckers... COME ON.
P < P + I
They have to do QE. If asset prices fall then all the debt that is issued against it crashes. Everyone will be underwater. That is why the 1% wants QE
THey don't want to be poor either!
Things that can't be sustained will not be..... the debt will come crashing down..... the 1% just doesn't want to be under it... and they needed time to maneuver to protect themselves.
They can read the writing on the wall....
See the Conpersons
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1223928
The State of the U.S. Markets online conference available this week at EWI...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/the-state-of-the-u-s-markets-online-c...
The issue here is that in an already negative interest environment the banks don't really want the cash... And this chart shows us that they really don't have that many bonds for selling. What is true and real as we have seen in Japan and US is that banks will not lend more now that a QE is triggered. It sends the wrong message to the banks - lend now and later we will raise interest rates for you...