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What We Can Learn From The Richest Man In Asia

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

It was nine months ago when we reported that Li Ka-shing, the richest man in Asia, had sold all of his major assets in China.

In 2013 when he started dumping his Chinese property holdings he was being ridiculed and criticized. Everyone was bullish on China’s real estate market.

It turns out you don’t want to bet against a man with a track record like Li’s.

Li Ka-shing’s grasp for major trends is unmatched. And he demonstrated his shrewdness and insight yet again when China’s real estate market went into correction mode last year.

He got out right at the peak of the market.

He recognized that China’s major credit bubble isn’t sustainable. Behind closed doors, the bosses in Beijing know it too.

A recent report by the chief economist at the Bank of Singapore reveals that the Chinese leadership is desperately trying to conceal the effects of excessive credit and engineer a ‘soft landing’.

And yet Chinese credit expansion continues.

Data from the Bank of International Settlements shows that in 2014 credit expansion’s share of GDP growth soared by 14%.

Since the end of 2008, credit expansion has accounted for 79% of China’s GDP growth.

Historical data and analysis shows that such levels of credit expansion inevitably lead to a lot of bad debts that can’t be repaid.

We’ve already seen first ever Chinese corporate defaults as a result of these policies, and we can expect more.

The long-term trend for China is of course, positive, but this doesn’t mean it’s going to be a smooth ride along the way. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

Right now, renminbi assets are falling and renminbi is weakening. Capital is fleeing China in fear of a major credit crunch.

Li was one of the first to spot this trend, and he got out.

Moreover, he’s hedging his bets across the board.

His most recent move is to restructure his investment companies and move them to the Cayman Islands.

 

Li is being very prudent– moving his money and his assets far away to safe, stable locations so that no single government has control over him.

Until now he was very much dependent on a single jurisdiction. He resides in Hong Kong and has Hong Kong SAR citizenship. His business interests were centered in Hong Kong and China as well.

Now, Hong Kong is an incredible place. The banks are well-capitalized, the government is solvent, and there’s a lot of economic opportunity.

But no matter how safe you think your home country might be, it NEVER makes sense to be completely dependent on one place.

Li understands that. Hedging your bets is crucial.

He has already acquired a second passport (Canada), and now he’s moving certain business interests and cash assets abroad.

In doing so, Li is also making sure that the wealth he worked to build over his entire life will be properly safeguarded for his family.

It’s hard to imagine he’ll be worse off for doing any of this. And if the worst happens, Li will be much better off for following his instincts.

This is good advice for anyone.

Remember: rational, successful people have a Plan B.

Rational, successful people take steps to minimize their downside risk.

 

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Sun, 01/18/2015 - 21:49 | 5678226 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Simon's right.  I'm going to start restructuring my 3 muti-billion dollar investment companies starting Monday.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 21:53 | 5678242 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I corrrectly guessed it was a simon black and stopped before reading the first sentence.  I think I'll diversify into authors that make sense.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:06 | 5678287 cifo
cifo's picture

"Remember: rational, successful people have a Plan B."

I am already at Plan D.

 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:10 | 5678295 Publicus
Publicus's picture

You can't take it with you.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:19 | 5678316 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Li Ka-Shing?

Sounds like a made-up name. Like Neal Kash-Karry or whatever.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:33 | 5678355 pods
pods's picture

HE didn't do shit. He is wealthy enough that he pays SMART people to do these things for him.

This is equivalent to complementing the Queen for how tidy Buckingham Palace is.

For 90% of those HERE, and 99% on earth, there isn't enough time to even learn 1/10th of what is needed to be able to do this and not end up being Panama'd.

You know what we can really learn from the richest man in Asia?

That being rich is better than being poor. 

Just like the schmucks who talk to a 16 year old girl online and agree to meet them. They go in the slammer, genpop, for a long time.  

What about the billionaire who has a harem that half the free world fucks?

pods

 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:28 | 5678492 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

Uh, please... the richest man in Asia?!

I think by now we all know that the Rothschilds/Sassoons and their well-networked incestuous cliques are by far the "richest".  They just like to hide behind their veils as hidden usury interest reapers and not outwardly flaunt their ill-gotten graft.  It's much easier to wield global power that way from under the rocks.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 01:26 | 5678798 old naughty
old naughty's picture

There may be more veils than seen:

Sir Ka-Shing (little publisized) is a KBE and had avoided the turmoil of CCP take over of China ---"swam to freedom" (as it was called in those days) in Hong Kong. Biography.

I doubt it he would let anyone to control his enterprises.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:13 | 5678303 DIgnified
DIgnified's picture

Only one plan here: Get shit.  Use shit. Try not to die.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:13 | 5678309 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

There is no Plan B.

But, we all know what you have to do when things become serious.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:12 | 5678299 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Let me guess, you're American, right?

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:34 | 5678467 junction
junction's picture

Simon Black is a commentator who is a blithering idiot.  Li converted his property holdings to convertible assets because he is old and he realizes that his heirs would be easy picking for any wolves from Wall Street or elsewhere. I stopped watching NBC Nightly News because I got sick and tired of the constant "Making A Difference" happy talk canned stories, worthless propaganda.  Brian Williams is no Walter Cronkite or even Tom Brokaw, the NBC news coverage only looked adequate in comparison to Diane Sawyer and Wolf Blitzer.  Self censoring idiots who belonged on radio. Just like Brian Williams.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:31 | 5679773 robertsgt40
robertsgt40's picture

Moving your "assets" around the planet is like changing cabins on the Titanic 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 21:53 | 5678236 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Large Everest Capital hedge fund closing after Swiss franc losses: Bloomberg

http://news.yahoo.com/large-everest-capital-hedge-fund-closing-swiss-fra...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hedge fund manager Marko Dimitrijevic is closing his largest hedge fund, Everest Capital's Global Fund, having lost almost all its money after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) scrapped its three-year-old cap on the franc against the euro, Bloomberg news reported on Saturday.

Citing a person familiar with the firm, Bloomberg said the fund had been betting that the Swiss franc would decline. The fund had about $830 million in assets at the end of 2014, according to a client report cited by Bloomberg.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 21:56 | 5678253 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Li is an uneducated man who dropped out of high school to work as a waiter in a teahouse to support his mom and siblings when his dad dropped dead suddenly.  

Uneducated men have no blinding orthodoxy and normally have Street Smart that comes with first hand experience in trenches. His personal philosophy is "Know When To Stop" and whenever he stops from doing a particular business is normally the top of that particular business. 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:01 | 5678274 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Cabbage."

That's what cash is.

"The Cabbage."

Talk to a trucker sometime.
Or a logger or a roofer.

"Its all about the cabbage.". The job gets done from 6:00 AM to 11:00AM. After that its all bonus money.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:29 | 5678341 reader2010
reader2010's picture

He once said the best childhood for a boy is the one in poverty because he believes poverty is the best education for a little boy.

He happens to own many great big ports around the world and also the Panama Canal. he piled in his money into biggie ports in mid 90s when most Americans started to pile into so-called "New Econony". 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 10:22 | 5679355 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

Conventional education is now a net negative for most people if doing a simple cost / benefit analysis

As it has always been for maverick geniuses

 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:02 | 5678272 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

A safe place like Canada huh? I live in Canada, it's panic time here right now.

 

Chinese know how to embezzle, but they sure as hell don't know what's going oni on in the world. If he has real estate here,he'll watch it drop by 40% over the next year or so. Nice call Li.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:07 | 5678291 cifo
cifo's picture

"I live in Canada, it's panic time here right now."

What do you mean? More panic than usual?

 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:18 | 5678317 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Hongcouver and Cowgary might drop 30% max. That kills flippers but people with revenue will ride it out IMO. 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:05 | 5678457 Rhal
Rhal's picture

copy

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:05 | 5678458 Rhal
Rhal's picture

I agree. Although Primesinister Harper has been printing $Cn at a crazy pace to try and keep parity. We'll do much better if we can ditch him.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 02:00 | 5678838 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

primesinister

that's good

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 09:17 | 5679205 mtl4
mtl4's picture

We are printting to keep it below parity (thanks to old yeller).........won't need to print so much now with the commodities getting crushed though.  

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:37 | 5678374 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

160% debt to income for the av. household in Canadia.  I'm not bloody surprised.

Wot housing bubl?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 01:05 | 5678774 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Husky Energy (HSE) based in Canada is owned by Li Family + CKH Holdings.  I would think they have an idea of Canada.

 

It IS somewhat of a curiousity how distinct HSE's place is in the new org chart.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 02:00 | 5678836 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

I'm not panicked at all in Canada. carpenter must drink msm kool-aid.

Husky has done me well over the last fifteen years.

Yield 4.5%

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 06:02 | 5679030 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

I completely agree Carpenter1, the Chinese (and Russian) government screwdness is widely overrated. Some überwealthy robber barons know how to manipulate and bribe the system and make a huge fortune, but other than that the Chinese and Russian governments are colossal bureaucratic central planning institutions who couldn't organize a binge-drinking party in a brewery.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:06 | 5678284 FlSapo
FlSapo's picture

This Li guy isnt so smart he gets out at the peak of a market, he gets inside knowledge beore the shhep...Its a big club and we aint in it. Fuck em all. At the end of the day all the money in the world cant conceal your a doucebag.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 09:12 | 5679191 mtl4
mtl4's picture

So what, that just means if you watch what he does and not what he says you will likely benefit as well.

Uncle Warren, Soros et al are the exact same deal......watch the body movement, don't fall for the head fakes.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:12 | 5678302 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Ole Li ain't that smart or he would have said 'Ka Ching because he had bought Swiss assets 3 weeks ago. 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:19 | 5678315 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Too many ignorant Merkans posting on this thread... What, is it haltime in the big football game?  

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:26 | 5678347 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Too many ignorant Merkans posting

I'm still waiting for you to post something intelligent.  What country do you represent (poorly)?

 

 

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:37 | 5678375 lesamourai
lesamourai's picture

Li Ka-Ching !

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:40 | 5678385 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Li Ka-Shing was a smart man. Well thought out move in 2014.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 22:54 | 5678437 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

when you bet on the wrong gang (Bo Xi Lai/Zheng) and lose, you re-arrange your chips.  The rest of this piece is what ZH has been saying for months.

move on

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:22 | 5678499 Md4
Md4's picture

In doing so, Li is also making sure that the wealth he worked to build over his entire life will be properly safeguarded for his family."

Worked hard?

Doing what?

It sounds like his country could really use his efforts to build real wealth, if that's what he knows how to do.

Instead, he flees.

These are not people to follow. They are without honor.

m

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:34 | 5678545 roddy6667
roddy6667's picture

Sounds like he is into some crooked stuff and is fleeing the corruption crackdown.

Sun, 01/18/2015 - 23:57 | 5678631 fzrkid
fzrkid's picture

Decesions decesion, where to allocate my 500 bucks in savings and 150 in checking.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 10:27 | 5679366 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

I would venture a dictionary might be a wise investment

Sorry, you handed it over to me on a silver platter, couldn't resist

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 10:28 | 5679374 toadold
toadold's picture

Well I'm slowly building up on my investments in canned goods and extra med's that I need.  Next month I'm getting some rye whiskey and more cheap red wine from Sam's. I'd also suggest some extra KY jelly because it looks like we are going to get boned this year.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 00:34 | 5678723 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Arrest him. Dude's a financial pervert.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 10:54 | 5679444 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

Translation: "He makes a lot more money than I do."

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 01:09 | 5678766 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

US Banks dumped their shares of Chinese banks over the last couple years.  Now, we're seeing pieces of things unfold.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 03:07 | 5678889 starman
starman's picture

Li ka pussy is just way smarter!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 03:50 | 5678928 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Having taken the mickey out of preppers earlier, one of the predictions here by Gail Tverberg means they may be right.

(A couple of articles up or own)

Li needs to become a survivalist prepper nothing else will save him.

Financial instability and the new bail ins will pretty much wipe everything out in interconnected global financial markets as they desperately try and pay out on huge derivative trades.

Everything .... companies, trade, everything, even a pile of gold doesn't work, no where to trade it and you can't eat it.

Even the super-rich are not isolated.

 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 08:05 | 5679108 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Hold on , gloater. I don't know how you got here but this is the Howdy Doody Show, and i'm  pretty sure Howdy Doody is a puppet.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 05:55 | 5679028 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

So where are the usual "China is so smart" fanboys? Li obviously knows more than the average Joe-Sixpack reader of ZH..

I've told you guys here a million times, the Chinese couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery. Sure, some Chinese got very rich, but it's not a testament of the Chinese government's central planning capabilities and foresights.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 07:36 | 5679074 css1971
css1971's picture

Anyone want to bet on the SNB change being deliberately set up Gravy for TPTB (Li Kashing ... really?) and the flip being the signal for "the end"?

Instant 20% if you were on the correct side of it. Much more if you leveraged.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 09:55 | 5679279 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The face of world Oligarchy.

This is why the GWB/Clinton combine will go down in history as the new Polo brothers. 

Then as today, Venice's Oligarchs wanted China's oligarchs to trade more along the old silk road! 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 11:57 | 5679632 'argar the 'orrible
'argar the 'orrible's picture

'My successes the world knows about, the failures I keep to myself''.

'I am getting rich,, very slowly'

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:27 | 5680038 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

Well, he's connected so he knows ahead of time...  

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 00:20 | 5682641 kappal_toba_dhu...
kappal_toba_dhurr_ne_thook's picture

Too bad most Americanos don't think like Li.  They are too busy imagining that USA  is "No1" and that no place on earth is better. Stupid  people.  They will be left holding the bag when the crash does come. 

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