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Architect Of Abenomics Says No More BOJ Easing
And the hits just keep on coming.
A few days after the SNB shocked the world when it became the first central bank to pull out of its currency war with the ECB, leading to an epic defeat not only for the Swiss economy whose exports are now set to crash and various brokers and macro hedge funds who were short the Swissy (even as the SNB is nursing an epic balance sheet as as result of its failed 3+ year intervention), and following the latest Chinese snub of its overzealous stock gamblers, next up on the "shock and awe" bandwagon may be none other than the Bank of Japan (something we noted over the weekend in "Is The BoJ The Next SNB?"), where according to Reuters, any hopes for even more QE may be dashed after a ruling party lawmaker and one of the architects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" policies said that the Bank of Japan "does not need to ease monetary policy further this year unless the economy is hit by a severe external shock."
As a reminder, it was just hours after the Fed's QE ended on October 31, when the BOJ shocked markets with expanding its own QE even further, sending the USDJPY soaring above 120. The problem is that with the Nikkei tracking the USDJPY tick for tick, implying all risk gains come at the expense of currency losses, last Firday the Nikkei had fully roundtripped to the level seen just after the announcement, suggesting any further gains would require even more easing. Easing, which will not come unless Japan's economy, already in freefall, literally implodes.
In the absence of sudden external shocks, the BOJ does not need to expand its stimulus again this year because the effect of its monetary easing in October last year should start boosting the economy by around this summer, he said.
"What more can the BOJ do? I think the central bank can hold off on action and take a wait-and-see stance for the time being," Yamamoto told Reuters in an interview.
The BOJ's stimulus program, dubbed "quantitative and qualitative easing" (QQE), was among the three arrows of "Abenomics," a mix of stimulus policies and a growth strategy to unshackle the economy from 15 years of deflation.
The remarks by Yamamoto, a close aide to Abe, suggest the government does not feel an imminent need to pressure the central bank into offering another fresh stimulus.
"Japan will probably see inflation hit 2 percent in fiscal year 2016," he said, adding that lower fuel costs will allow households to spend more on other items, keeping the economy in "very good shape."
Yamamoto's opinion is key, and a good predictor of future Japanese policy: a vocal advocate of aggressive monetary stimulus, Yamamoto had told Reuters in a previous interview on Oct. 8 that the BOJ needed to deploy additional stimulus to ease the pain from a sales tax hike in April last year. He also said Abe should delay a second tax hike, initially scheduled for October 2015. Both proposals became true. The BOJ expanded QQE three weeks later and Abe postponed the second tax hike by 18 months.
Which puts even more pressure on Draghi to act on Thursday, and act big because if the BOJ is out of the picture with additional stimulus (keeping its baseline to just around , the SNB is done, and the Fed is expected, even if by an increasingly smaller group of people, to hike rates, it leaves just Mario Draghi's printers to provide the bulk of the $250 billion needed every quarter to keep markets from crashing. Recall, per Citi calculations, "The Magic Number Is Revealed: It Costs Central Banks $200 Billion Per Quarter To Avoid A Market Crash." Because when one eliminates all the lies about keep inflation in check, avoiding a market crash is what it is all really about.
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Yep. Central banks must save themselves now
The Feral Reserve is about to do the same
Yup, I believe him! Cuz the Japanese government will be able to roll over all that Quadrillions of debt without any more QE, and people will be happy to be paid 0.05% interest or whatever on a currency issued by a country that is getting more radioactive and retired by the day. Mmmm yes.
b,b...but SNB lied, no?
"Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses"- Juvenal
Just wondering... Will Abe, Kuroda, Yamamoto, and the rest of the Cunt-Team do the right thing and perform a hari-kiri on live TV? ;-)
Looney
Banksters have no honour
Have all central bankers completely lost their spines? This is absolutely unacceptable. This is a time when central bankers are supposed to be leading the way and setting out clear reliable policy plans. How are investors supposed to invest when our monetary leaders can't stick to their plans? This is very concerning and in my opinion calls for new monetary leadership, not just for Japan, but for the entire global economy. We desperately needa unified monetary and fiscal leadership, and I fear that the only solution may be further political integration. Idieally this would be in the form of some global policy making institute which operates above the nation states, allowing us to drive meaningful economic change at a global level.
...>>> "Have all central bankers completely lost their spines? "
... no, not all ... >>> "Russian Central Bank voids Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch ratings" ... >>> http://rt.com/business/224067-russia-central-bank-ratings-agencies/ ...
Fuck. That is terrifyingly realistic.
Dear Million Dollar Bonus:
You need some help. The following would be a good start for you:
mises.org
Dude !!! Its called sarcasm and is suppossed to be funny. Amazing how many don't get that...
We desperately needa unified monetary and fiscal leadership, and I fear that the only solution may be further political integration. Idieally this would be in the form of some global policy making institute which operates above the nation states, allowing us to drive meaningful economic change at a global level.
Who's 'we', white man?
MillionDollarBonus_ always brings the best laugh of the day.
This is a time when central bankers are supposed to be leading the way and setting out clear reliable policy plans.
I gotta believe this is some serious deep /sarc. Maybe the whole time he's been tongue-in-cheek? Maybe he's playing a character? It's as if he's never read a Zerohedge article.
Time for the banksters to send Krugman back to Japan for more bad advice.
They have become too westernized. It would be nice to show the rest of the worlds Banksters what to do..
Is the World heading towards a Global Monetary Standard (Gold) or is it just going to rachet up the Currency Wars to someting a little hotter?
I have been a BTFD'er, anything and everything, for a few years and has been very profitable. Now I am starting to second guess this. Just flat don't know how to read the tea leaves right now.
Should we que Bob Dylan?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7qQ6_RV4VQ
The fiat monetary system has to have a tether to reality. The tether has ALWAYS been gold, which is why the banksters have tried to manipulate the price after they went full retard fiat so they can have their cake and eat it too.
Now it can be easily seen that it isn't working out so well. IE, you can't create wealth by journal entries.
Gold is about to take the forefront again as a monetary anchor [paraphrasing alan greenspan].
Yep, gold is going to make a comeback but it'll be from the top of of a pile of headless manipulators...
So now Keynesian dickheads will be saying : "We are all Austrians now"?
Everybody lied!!
It seems now that Germany DID repatriate 120 tons of gold from the FED!
SO DRAIN DRAIN DRAIN THAT VAULT
SLOWLEY DOWN FORT KNOX
MERELY MERELY MERELY MERELY
THE DOLLAR IS BUT A DREAM!!!
They may be able to save their ässes....but not their souls.
Do Feral cats eat their own bankster soufflé? Which, BTW, consists largely of barf.
Good imagery.
But the Feral Reserve is rabid too so that will make it all the moar grizzly.
what is the synonamous with desparation? moar printing? ha, stop printing, ha fucking ha, i'll believe it when the yen is worthless and they printed their nation to hell on earth. fuck the nips>>>want to rock the boat nipo's-dump treasuries...
With desperation comes denial and we're at the point where the the people who have destroyed the monetary system deny any other possibility, so they will have a very large funeral pyre with wrecked economies supplying the flames.
I don't care about their souls.
I want to see their asses thrown in jail.
how about on the end of ropes for treason?
As Jim Grant pointed out quite some time ago, the FED has violated the coinage act of 1792, a capitol offense for mere mortals.
How can a failed experiment save it's self? On the backs of their citizens of course.
Your average person has no idea where their problems originate. They will hang whomever they are told to hang.
I... am the Architect.
Like George Costanza?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI_hOP_K6MY
I don't understand either this news item or the spin put on it. Isn't Japan on Max QE already?
The SNB DOES it. The BOJ HINTS at it? Panic in 3.2.1......
Wrong Tylers
A high value currency is good for exports. The Euro went from .85 to 1.55 and German exports rocketed up.
+1, correct. depends on the kind of exports, though. high-ticket, high-quality like hyper-precision machinery is at one end of the spectrum, and low-quality "commodities" at the other end
somewhere in the middle you find for example Swiss tourism, which is going to hurt like hell. some pain in Switzerland is coming, depending from the the industry
The rich tour Switzerland. They'll still go. Middle class has been forced to reduce travel long ago.
The Swiss are on target. The markets dynamics are going to change based on the reality of this new FX baseline. Given a solid, credible, currency, the old physics of finance come into play. “Give me a place to stand and with a lever I will move the whole world.”
meh. Those who could afford to vacation in Switzerland last month can obviously still afford to do so now.
Some years ago I met one of the executives for Bosch who had been in China trying to get the Chinese to manufacture Bosch injectors for diesel engines. He said they just gave up because it became obvious that they would never source quality steel in China that would not erode in a year under normal use. There is a price for quality and people will pay for it.
I have run into this problem a few times over the years, too. Chinese "stainless" steel is somewhere between 304 and 316. The quality is not standardized.
I cannot see how people think Chinese military hardware is worth the shit. Luck of the draw as far as materials.
First to the article. I call total unadulterated BULLISHIT on even the idea the BOJ would stop making 0's at end of 1's. CB's are in full retard until world economy crashes then it's time for the new GLOBO which will fix everything (NOT). NIRP across the board within 5 years..
Now lets talk about quality. Our labratory deals in single run products that require high precision machining, significant design and performance metrics. TO date the Germans have fucked us to the tune of a couple million for a product that we had to assemble and remachine, because they were 3 years late in delivery (finally we just said ship us what you have). TO date that product never has met specification, and NEVER WILL meet specification but fortunately we were able to make it work. Oh and guess what we paid in full because the leaders of our lab are in bed with the suppliers. In time (another 5-10 years I think) I expect the thing to simply wear away/fall apart and will require another few million just to repair or replace. German engineering and production ISN'T what it used to be folks. We are also finding previously tried and true providers of various standard components are also having their product lines turn to shit. These companies have the audacity to come and tell us that how we are using their equipment IS the problem when we havn't changed how we do 'business' in over 20 years. 10 years ago the products worked, today MBTF is down from like 10 years to about 3 on the same products across the board. In fact we now are changing major product suppliers because of this (I believe it won't do shit to change the shitty products we are getting but will only disrupt what was solid manufacture/order/support chains) and we spend a couple million a year on some of these vendors.
Yeah everything is fine in economy land. I made this prediction 20 years ago and I'll make it again today. Expect quality to further deteroiorate to the point that consumers simply won't be able to get a reliable product they can actually use. What is going on economically is now so far reaching (i.e. everything turning to putting lipstick on rotten pigs) that when it breaks its going to break on every level, everywhere. It's so bloody bad I've been seriously considering just saying NO to all the fuck bullshit products and opening up my own company that focuses completely on the opposite spectrum, products with highest quality achievable, long durability, and ease of service/repair. Oh and backed by a company with real knowledgable people at the end of the horn instead of a god damn computer and indian idiots. Start with the most aggregious stuff that is relatively easy to produce with quality that people always need (that don't require much support) and move on to the more important stuff.
Chinese learned and emulate much of western models and are not doing much 'differently'. At some point we the people have to grab this bullishit cow by the horns and turn it back to plowing our fields and telling our leaders to get on the shovel or smack em in the head and bury them with it.
OldE
you're from a place i used to call america...God i miss that country.
i feel it everywhere, too...makes me ill.
great post
Great post. I totally agree. My conversation with the Bosch guy was in 2005 and things have certainly gotten worse since then and it's interesting to hear that the Huns decided to follow the shit Chinese model.
Well, if you are someone who actually manufacters something real, requiring real inputs (like commodities or physical resources), and of high quality, then yes, this is true.
Unfortunately, if all you "manufacture" is SNAP babies, paper promises (out of thin air), and financial "products" of mass destruction, then a stronger currency isn't such a good thing.
Let me be clear, fuck em.
"Unless the economy is hit by a severe external shock"
Well, that should be clear then.
Well....there is the Godzilla clause.
They should sue Paul Krugman
heh, you can't sue a central bank for it's policies and you can't sue Dr. Krugman for giving policy advice
and if that damn TTIP is finally shredded to pieces you can forget about suing anybody for disturbing investments with pesky "policy changes for national reason through national laws"
except perhaps in the US and the UK, I would not be astonished if those two do land there
"it leaves just Mario Draghi's printers to provide the bulk of the $250 billion needed every quarter to keep markets from crashing "
LOL. BoJ finding out that "following Dr. Krugman's advice" is only sane if you do have an Invasion From Mars?
markets? the Mighty US stock market, you mean. all the others are nothing, in comparison
LOL. only a quarter of a trillion? half of what the Squid wants? a quarter of what the ECB "de-printed", in the last two years?
unless... so that means this week or next week they'll QE once more :)
That's also how I read it. I translate from Japanese English to English:
"We are currently whitnessing several severe external shocks to our economy (not our fault), which is why we need lots of more QE!"
If I were an architect, I would object.
These fuckers have never built anything that didn't collapse.
We should be sending them some of our Mexicans and Haitians. Dude - they will do the jobs which Japanese robots won't do.
off topic - but now the story is the NSA know NK hacked Sony on account of having hacked NK first
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/world/asia/nsa-tapped-into-north-korea...
I still doubt it.
https://securityledger.com/2014/12/new-clues-in-sony-hack-point-to-insid...
So..... you jump off a cliff and just before you smash yourself to bits on the rocks below...... you say, I'm not going to do any more to hurt myself.
The game is over and the outcome known. Flap the jaws if you want. Nobody gives a shit.
What never fails to send me into a laughing seizure is when I read statements such as when he infers that the plebs will have more money to spend on other things since oil is low.........and the economy is in very good shape.......
Isn't that the hallmark of depression...everything's cheap, but you still can't afford it?
"I'm saving a ton on gas now that I don't have to drive to work anymore. Let's go to Chick-Fil-A!"
I won't shed a tear, you lemmings voted for it.
What's with all this naming policies after yourself? Abenomics, Obozocare, have these people no integrity for how history will judge them?
What's with all this naming policies after yourself? Abenomics, Obozocare, have these people no integrity for how history will judge them?
Those two didn't name the policy after themselves. The terms were invented by publicists to make it easy for the dumb masses.
I saw Obama on Letterman when he was first asked if he didn't like the term; he told Letterman he didn't mind it.
Of course they have no integrity; that's how they got elected!
OFF TOPIC:
@Steiner1776: Reports coming in from different sources that #Novorossiya army may have started an attack on #Mariupol
It's harvest time for the masters of central bankers. Economic crises present opprotunites for the trully wealthy class to get richer by picking up assets dirt cheap.
BUBA has been repatriating gold from the FED on schedule. 90 tons last year
https://www.goldbroker.com/news/bundesbank-stepped-up-repatriation-gold-696
.
at this rate, it should take them almost 16 yrs. wow DE really put their foot down. lol
i think zh is misreading this.
key phrases (imo):
the BOJ does not need to expand its stimulus again this year because...
"What more can the BOJ do? I think the central bank can hold off on action and take a wait-and-see stance for the time being," Yamamoto told...
make no mistake, the boj has gone full retard. the japan ptb just won re-election. there will be no drastic change of course. the "external shock" thing means MOAR (in japanese) in the event of a usa stock market crash which is NOT COMING.
We can do more, but let's stay the course. A thousand points of light... [/President George H.W. Bush]
Is this the beginning of FX "suicides"?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11386699
The family can collect the life insurance when it's mointain climbing "accident." Not so much when it's a nail-gun "suicide."
Exactly.
Well he's clearly not a "hill walker".
Looks like Japan is going to get nuked again. Just like they did a couple years ago. Tsunami. 2 on deck. They need to keep buying the NAZI 's oops America's debt...
make no mistake, they are purposely, willingly, like a sumo wrestler, throwing their entire financial weight behind the usa.
That one-time sumo wrestler has been on a Nutri-system diet for years.
It is time to pass the QE batton to Super Mario.
All these Central Bankers are directors of the BIS and a co-ordinated approach should be expected.
BIS meeting agenda:
1) Whose tax payers can we put on the line this time?
2) Is there any chance of getting global wealth creators off their luxury yachts and back to work?
3) Tea and biscuits (smoked salmon and caviar)
4) Summing up
wait! isn't this shit like the biggest proof that the whole world is pretty much governed by one group of supranational unelected technocrats while almost no one finds it even worth mentioning? not that we didn't know that, but what the hell? the day FED stops, BOJ starts the next. and now ECB?
and who is to believe that the BIS is really run by the individual central banks while:
- has zero transparency
- no other institution has rights to regulate or audit BIS
- belongs to private shareholders (at least to an extent the central banks do + 14% directly)
- doesn't have to oblige to any laws of any single government in the world
- doesn't have to pay any taxes
- it's employees have immunity
"a ruling party lawmaker and one of the architects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" policies said that the Bank of Japan "does not need to ease monetary policy further this year unless the economy is hit by a severe external shock."...
And what is the probability that lightening will strike in the same place twice in "QEville"!
To that ruling lawmker in Abe's camp...
Better find the longest iron rod and place it on top of Paul Krugmann's house!
The shift from globalization to protectionism will be swift, much like the shift from "low prices" to shortages. It would appear that humans really have not evolved after all.
Same as it ever was...
"the planet will be fine..." - George Carlin
I can believe this, because Japan's fiscal situation is improving.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2820706-ministry-of-finance-japan-approv...
Continued propaganda.
Lie until failure.
I can't imagine what could go wrong with a plan that is rooted on such firm foundations as American stocks.
Hahahaha.
Cue "severe external shock" in 3...2....1...
...the Bank of Japan "does not need to ease monetary policy further this year unless the economy is hit by a severe external shock."
Okay, so the message here is if there is some kind of 'shock' the BoJ has your back.
So they are not going to water down their H2O
Don't these guys almost always end up doing the opposite of what they say?
So then I think we could anticipate more yellow rain, aka yen printing.
We are going to see just how fast the world's bankers change their opinions on easy money. We know that they have no real principles. They are like teenagers following fads. I bet they all have their own pet rocks.
There's gonna be a new fad in town.
And those holding onto the old fad last are gonna be really unhappy.
Once one starts to run away from the US Federal Reserve's printing Ponzi they all start to run.
When it's the country's self-preservation it's everyone for themselves.
SNB is demonstration of that.
Asians are like robots, completely brainwashed and obedient, the price of bread in Japan and China could double every morning and they would still go to work for the same pay check until they literally start to drop dead at their work stations.... at which point the plant manager will up the wages to maintain his cattle / I mean worker population.
This is what happens when you artificially lower the price of labor with globalization, you literally breed robot humans.
Globalization is the worst thing that ever happened to humanity.... (so-far)
"Asians are like robots, completely brainwashed and obedient,"---until you cross the path of a psychotic tiger mother beast scorned.
Simple mistranslation: he meant "until the economy is hit..."
========================================================
"A few days after the SNB shocked the world when it became the first central bank to pull out of its currency war with the ECB, leading to an epic defeat not only for the Swiss economy whose exports are now set to crash and various brokers and macro hedge funds who were short the Swissy (even as the SNB is nursing an epic balance sheet as as result of its failed 3+ year intervention), and following the latest Chinese snub of its overzealous stock gamblers, next up on the "shock and awe" bandwagon may be none other than the Bank of Japan (something we noted over the weekend in "Is The BoJ The Next SNB?"),where according to Reuters, any hopes for even more QE may be dashed after a ruling party lawmaker and one of the architects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" policies said that the Bank of Japan'does not need to ease monetary policy further this year unless the economy is hit by a severe external shock.'"
============================================================
That, sir, is a very long sentence.
It's like trying to read fucking German! :)
Yeah, he should stop quantitative easing only AFTER outpurchasing China's share of US Treasuries like they did last week.
Where the heck was Yamamoto when Nixon took the US off of the gold standard back in August 15th, 1971 to finance "Vietnam"?-hack!
I'll believe it when I see it.
There is this notion that every one seems to have,, no doubt because they listen to the MSM the nice honest politicians and the bankers and hedgies who are all telling you that the incomparably evil fuck witted criminal cock sucker druggy draggy will do, when every one knows for a fact these cunts couldn't tell the truth for one second.
If you stop and think just for a second, it seems far more likely that the cunt draggy i NOT going to be doing his fucking fraudulent ponzi scam QE.
Why ? Because a certain Mr Weiderman says he is not. Not without major consequences, Like Germany telling the whole of the rest of Europe to go fuck themselves with whatever blunt or sharp object bigger than a dwarf is at hand.
So Why did SNB drop the cap, Because historically the Franc and the Deutschmark were very close, very strong and and very close, and Mr Wiederman whispering in the SNB ear that the showdown was coming and there wasn't a fucking hope in hell of a cock sucking third rate jumped up shit for brains like draggy winning.
Not ever, even with all the fucking spin and drivel and goading from all his criminal mafia fuck buddies around the world.
Draggy might have been sucking cock on a herculean scale, but Mr Weiderman knows exactly what a shithole draggy is and the depths of his depravity.
And Mr Weiderman knows exactly whose cocks has draggy pig lipstick rings around them.
As we all do. Every lying thieving desperate arsehole you can think of. Like the brain dead faggot Holland who actually announced it was going to happen.
I do not buy it. Mr Weiderman is not for bending over for a cunt like draggy to ass rape him and neither are the Swiss.
No the Swiss pulled out and the Danes will do the same before the week is out precisely because it is a simple choice.
Draggy fucks off, and there is no QE and gets shafted in every which way by his fuck buddies for letting them down, or Germany pulls out and leaves draggy and the rest of the corrupt lying fucks looking like a bunch of fucking dumb morons with a printing press and no fucking currency worth more than a Zimbabwe dollar to print.
Bear in mind that there is not a single German Bank that does not have enough freshly printed marks waiting patiently in the vaults to replace every single fake ponzi euro voucher in a matter of minutes.
Every ATM is pre-programmed to be capable of switching instantly in Germany.
Short the fucking ponzi toilet paper called the euro like there is no tomorrow by going long rubles.
Germany will not volunteer to take on the debts of Europe.
What's happening in Ukraine ?
Is your side winning?
"they won't expand unless .... (insert bull shit, double talk and outright lies here)"
Doesn't this ALL look like a coordinated move?
First the FED stops QE.
The BOJ goes on full blast.
Now the BOJ stops and we all know (even Hollande said it) on Thursday ECB starts a big QE program.
So these CBs are taking turns at pumping the money line to fight deflation within the limits of their capabilities...which ECB has already said should be 1T max.
The only mavericks in the pack look like the SNB that walked away from the ECB and the Sauds who have deflated oil to a point where the US junk bond industry is jeopardized along with its pet race horse the shale plays.
Fight deflation in EU and fight commodity inflation in US land, some tug of war.
Either these guys are maestros or they are shysters. Two extremes in a round world.
At some point a maestro turns into a shyster according to Galileo; when he crosses the international dating line in Ukraine or the international mating line in TPP.
money-quote: "What more can the BOJ do...?"
This IS Japan, right?
let me help; apologize to the nation for their pathetic and failed monetary theories, tie on that pretty bandana with the big red circle on front, pull out the short sword for seppuku, have a reliable second.
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