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Germany's Bundesbank Resumes Gold Repatriation; Transfers 120 Tonnes Of Physical Gold From Paris And NY Fed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Three weeks ago, when looking at the latest NY Fed data of foreign gold held at the largest central bank gold vault in the world, we showed that in the month of November not only was a near record amount of gold withdrawn from the NY Fed, which at 42 tons was the single biggest monthly outflow at the NY Fed in over a decade...

... but that though the end of November, all of the Netherlands' 122 tons of gold withdrawals had been fully accounted for. This brought up an interesting question:

"... net of the Netherlands withdrawals, there is some 44 tons of extra gold that has been also quietly redeemed (by another entity). The question is who: is it now the turn of Austria to reveal in a few weeks that it too, secretly, withdrew some 40+ tons of gold from "safe keeping" in the US? Or was it Belgium? Or did the Dutch simply decide to haul back some more. Or did Germany finally get over its "logistical complications" which prevented it from transporting more than just a laughable 5 tons in 2013? And most importantly, did Germany finally grow a pair and decide not to let "diplomatic difficulties" stand between it and its gold?

We now know the answer, and it was, indeed, the latter with confirmation coming from the Bundesbank itself. As the German Central Bank announced earlier today, after withdrawing an embarrassing 5 tonnes of gold from New York in 2013, its rate of repatriation soared, and in what appears to have been just the past two months, has transferred a whopping 85 tonnes of gold from 80 feet below street level at Liberty 33 back to Frankfurt!

From Buba:

The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold last year. In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt am Main from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York. "Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule," said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

 

The Bundesbank took advantage of the transfer from New York to have roughly 50 tonnes of gold melted down and recast according to the London Good Delivery standard, today's internationally recognised standard. "We also called on the expertise of the Bank for International Settlements for the spot checks that had to be carried out. As expected, there were no irregularities," said Mr Thiele.

 

According to its new gold storage plan, unveiled in January 2013, the Bundesbank will be storing half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults from 2020 onwards. This necessitates a phased transfer to Frankfurt am Main of 300 tonnes of gold from New York and all 374 tonnes of gold from Paris.

 

Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bank has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt am Main - 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York. This is equivalent to roughly 23% of the total quantity to be transferred. The following table gives an overview of the gold that has been transferred to date.

 

 

As at 31 December 2014, the Bundesbank's gold reserves were stored at the following locations.

 

And the punchline:

The Bundesbank assures the identity and authenticity of German gold reserves throughout the transfer process - from when they are removed from warehouses abroad until they are stored in Frankfurt am Main. As soon as the gold was removed from the warehouse locations abroad, Bundesbank employees cross-checked the lists of bars belonging to the Bundesbank against the information on the bars removed. Finally, once they arrived in Frankfurt am Main, all the transferred gold bars were thoroughly and exhaustively inspected and verified by the Bundesbank. When all the inspections had been concluded, no irregularities came to light with regard to the authenticity, fineness and weight of the bars.

A curious amount of precautions and safeguards when transporting the "safe" and "untainted" gold held at the NY Fed to Frankfurt. Almost as if the Bundesbank, gasp, did not trust the quality and content of the NY Fed-held gold, nor its well-meaning intentions.

Ironically, it was exactly one year ago that we wrote "Germany Has Recovered A Paltry 5 Tons Of Gold From The NY Fed After One Year" in which we wrote:

The official explanation was as follows: "The Bundesbank explained [the low amount of US gold] by saying that the transports from Paris are simpler and therefore were able to start quickly." Additionally, the Bundesbank had the "support" of the BIS "which has organized more gold shifts already for other central banks and has appropriate experience - only after months of preparation and safety could transports start with truck and plane." That would be the same BIS that in 2011 lent out a record 632 tons of gold...

 

Welt goes on to "debunk" various "conspiracy websites" that the reason why the gold is being melted is not to cover up some shortage (and to scrap serial numbers), but that the gold is exactly the same gold as before. Finally, to silences all skeptics, the Bundesbank says that "there is no reason for complaint - the weight and purity of the gold bars were consistent with the books match." In conclusion, Welt reports that in 2014 "larger transport volumes" can be expected from New York: between 30 and 50 tons.

Welt was off by just 50% with the full 2014 repatriated amount hitting 85 tons in what appears to have been a year-end scramble following the Netherlands repatriation shocker. And, as it turns out, all it took for the Bundesbank to send its repatriation amounts surging is for the Dutch to show it how it is done: i.e., by plane because crossing the Atlantic with a Brinks' truck full of gold certainly presents some "logisitcal challenges."

Sarcasm aside, it is quite clear that "logistical difficulties" is merely a politically correct strawman. Recall the real reason for the paltry repatriation by Buba in 2013, as explained by Deutsche Bank two months ago:

... the gold community paid great attention to the decision of the German Bundesbank to “bring German gold home”. At the beginning of 2013, the Bundesbank announced it would repatriate 300 tonnes of gold stored in the US by 2020. It is well behind schedule, citing logistical difficulties. Yet diplomatic difficulties are more likely to be the chief cause of the delay, especially seeing as the Bundesbank has proven its capacity to organise large-scale gold transports. In the early 2000s, the Bundesbank incrementally repatriated 930 tonnes of German gold held by the Bank of England.

Which leads us to the only relevant question: now that the "diplomatic difficulties" have been overcome and the Bundesbank is back on track to repatriating precisely the right amount of gold from the NY Fed to indicate that it has far less faith in the US central bank than it did when it was barely conducting any transfers in 2013, just how worse as the diplomatic difficulties now? We expect to get at least a partial answer on Thursday when Mario Draghi finally announces his long-overdue €500 billion QE program, with Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann, sitting quietly in a corner, and ignored by the ex-Goldman head of the ECB, contemplated just how much more, if not all, gold (there is still some 517 tonnes of gold left to be repatriated to Germany from NY and Paris) he should withdraw now in preparation for the "next steps"?

One thing is certain: Germany sends its kindest gratitude to Ukraine, whose gold, now long gone, is most likely to be found in a far safer, and remelted, state somewhere in the bowels under Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße, number 14 in Frankfurt am Main.

 

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Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:05 | 5679664 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

That's a lot of trouble for a barbarous relic.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:10 | 5679678 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

In 2020 the German public can rejoice that only 1,200 tonnes of German publicly owned gold is held by the private Federal Reserve Bank in NY.

Good times are here again.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:15 | 5679693 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Tyler, you are putting it as if we europeans would not trust the FED. nothing could be further from the truth. we trust the FED to do what it does best, including it's signaling system, it's care for the primary dealers and it's way with fixing problems by throwing money at things

it's the US Treasury and it's stooge, the NY-FED that we don't trust, to the very last re-cast and re-numbered bar of gold. we were shocked, once

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:17 | 5679704 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

True MONEY Phys GOLD $3K In The Shorter Term ...

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:26 | 5679745 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

WTF 2020??? PARIS Is A Stones Throw From BERLIN...

IF THEY WANTED... A Few Lorries Could Make The Transfer Within A WEEK!!!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:31 | 5679758 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

PARIS Is A Stones Throw From BERLIN...

In 1918 the Paris Gun was able to shell Paris from 120 kilometres (75 mi) away.

In 2015 you would think the Germans could retrieve "their" gold.

Has anyone called DHL?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:35 | 5679791 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Geld allein macht nicht glücklich
Sie müssen auch in der Bundesbank!!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:40 | 5679811 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Aren't people who hoard Gold listed & considered "Domestic Terrorists" as per the:

D. ept.

of

H. uman

S. acrifice

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:47 | 5679857 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Meanwhile, The .01% ers Can't Get Rid Of Their FIATS Paper Fast Enough...

1792 Birch 1 Cent, Judd-4, MS65 Red and Brown. Sold for: $2,585,000.00.

http://artdaily.com/news/75838/Rare-coin-records-smashed-by-Heritage-Auc...

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:52 | 5679877 Publicus
Publicus's picture

These are the missing Ukrainian gold.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:59 | 5679911 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

And, Lybia Gold.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:03 | 5679925 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

And Iraqi gold....

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:41 | 5680103 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

The syndicate stole Egypt's gold too.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:05 | 5680212 7.62x54r
7.62x54r's picture

Not related but hilarious:

Remember that retard at Alpari Forex, Hughes? The one who called the SNB "amateurs" for de-pegging the Swiss Franc?

Alpari is going bankrupt. They were all in on Swiss Franc to Euro interest rate arbitrage, and when the value of the Swiss Franc shot up, they lost their over-leveraged and unhedged shirts.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:43 | 5680374 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Ghordius, I didn't down vote you because I assume you simply forgot the /sarc tag.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:45 | 5680627 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

WTF????

"The Bundesbank took advantage of the transfer from New York to have roughly 50 tonnes of gold melted down and recast according to the London Good Delivery standard"

THE BUNDESBANK OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT TRUST THE NY FED!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:09 | 5680750 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

they were waiting for their amazon premire membership to be approved for the unlimited free shipping offer...

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:08 | 5681895 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Lets get this straight, USA bases in America and USA bases in Germany.  The Krauts got nothing back really.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 07:37 | 5683050 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The US could always pull out and let Putin send aid to the domestic Russians in Germany.

 

There's more of them in East Germnay than there is West Germany....but do exist.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:16 | 5680769 giggler321
giggler321's picture

Those are just figures.  They could say whatever they wanted them to say - could to 1000tons and all the gerry's will be rejoicing in the streets but no, as only when they need them; the doors of the bundesbank vaults will be opened and the populus will know just what they have - 0

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 18:41 | 5681396 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Time to pull an "Italian Job"

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 08:04 | 5683100 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Agree, this all can turn out to be a mere hoax.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 19:19 | 5681531 Sirius Wonderblast
Sirius Wonderblast's picture

It's the melted-down bit that fascinates.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:03 | 5681884 smukster
smukster's picture

Nope, just useless German perfectionism.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 22:00 | 5682080 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

WAIT.

WHAT?

The Bundesbank had the FED melt the gold bars that were deposited in the FED for safekeeping DOWN, and RE-CAST? The 'entropy effect' described in the Laws of Thermodynamics state that there will be a net LOSS of weight (albeit small) because SOME of the molecules are sacrificed to make it change states (from solid to liquid; and back again). What are they trying to HIDE? Was it originally cast in the Nazi Germany era, with a fucking SWASTIKA on it?

WELL... perhaps it was cast in Arabic (from Lybia), or Slavic (from Bosnia/Herznogvina or maybe Ukraine) or Arabic (from Iraq), or cast with Tungsten fake (same atomic weight) from Clintonista Conus?

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19578206/fake-gold-bars-turn-up-in-manhattan

https://images.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrTcdChs71UEPYA7LolnIlQ...

I'm trying to recall the location of the video where the German or Swiss gold assayer (who was the first to discover the problem) is posted. I think the Chinese were the first to get these fake bars (as payment to settle daily trade), and some authentication (the 'paper trail') led directly to Ft. Knox (circa 1998).

If I WAS GERMAN (I am, but only about 1/16th), NOT ONLY would I want that stuff re-cast, I WOULD DEMAND CREDIBLE WITNESSES AND SEVERAL VIDEOS OF THE PROCESS, WHICH ARE PUT ON PUBLICLY-AVAILABLE MEDIA VENUES OF THE ENTIRE PROCESS FROM DELIVERY TO RE-HYPOTHECIATION. IN PUBLIC. IN AN OPEN AREA. LIKE A CITY PARK.

Let's SEE the gold bars as they are deliverd to the smelter, and let's ALL SEE what they are inscribed with; and let's all SEE the gold being melted, and then re-cast; and LET'S ALL see this gold being delivered to the German Central Bank.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 01:11 | 5682732 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Exactly! Why can't school kids take field trips to see "their" Countries gold and do essays and math tests? The people's gold should be on public display and taught ti school kids as the cornerstone of the Countries wealth and independence.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 01:38 | 5682775 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

This is probably not the video you are looking for, but as far as I am aware it is the only OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT VIDEO ADMISSION of gold plated tungsten bars in the market.

five minute video - key admission from 2:52-3:22

http://www.ezv.admin.ch/org/04135/04962/04965/index.html?lang=en (they moved the video on the Swiss Customs Admin website since I originally came across it two years ago)

or the Youtube version https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WxEugoxdc4

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 04:29 | 5682925 giggler321
giggler321's picture

Yes that is interesting - strangly though since the UK already lied about the grade of melted yellow before; why they trust them now I dont know.  They must have a melt centre someplace that could do the job and check purity themselves.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 19:23 | 5681551 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

Now in China friendly bar size.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:23 | 5681941 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

My belief is that the BUNDESBANK does not really have a problem repatriating gold.

However, if they did, I suggest that they call on ALL US Germans, to stand in line with them in NY waiting for the withdrawl.   The public spectacle would be so devestating the NY Fed would be forced to deliver....of course, if they really have the gold.   If they don't have the gold, the the public spectacle would be even greater.

Even though I'm 1/2 way across the country, I would be more than willing to fly to NY to stand in that line in support of my ancestoral hommies.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 03:11 | 5682879 Four chan
Four chan's picture

the internet needs to retire that ancient video.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:08 | 5683190 agstacks
agstacks's picture

No, they just had to get rid of those pesky UKRAINIAN NATIONAL BANK symbols 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 19:48 | 5681643 pgroup
pgroup's picture

Pretty sure they lost more than their shirts. They're missing their pants and tighty whiteys as well, and maybe their balls if the investors caught up to them.

A fitting end.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 20:02 | 5681679 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Whatever happened to Libya's gold?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:14 | 5679978 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Labia gold quite slippery no

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:36 | 5680074 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Do you own Au/Ag?

.

Then you/we must be an extremist.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:06 | 5680215 aiaiai
aiaiai's picture

Or an anti-Chosenite. Only Chosenites are aloowed to own gold. Huhuhuhuhuhuhuhuhu.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:18 | 5680006 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

+100 for the greatest link today.  One fucking cent!!!!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 19:36 | 5681599 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Obviously, if you ask for your property back and you get a run around -- it means they don't have it, or they intend to rob you.  Germany is a toothless tiger.  They don't have the guns to demand anything.  Therefore, they will be  lucky to get another ounce by 2020.

Perhaps the only leverage they have is to leave the EU and let it rot in hell without their support.  Or they can threaten to partner with Russia/China and stick it to the reserve currency.  If you start playing those games, you better have body guards you can trust.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 20:17 | 5681708 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Any views on whether Real State is a safe heaven or should one stick to preshus metals?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 20:31 | 5681776 Oath_Keeper
Oath_Keeper's picture

I'd pick real estate over PMs, simply because you can shoot people on your property, and you can't eat PMs, but you can grow on real estate. Captain Obvious!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 20:35 | 5681787 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Rothl!!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:32 | 5679824 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Wars are fought for gold.  Everything else is short term theater.  Iraq, Lybia, Ukraine, etc were blown apart to get gold.  The oil is for short term gains and short term power - for the best that can be done as we have seen is to get oil offline long enough to bankrupt the nation-state (Halibutron, Xi, etc made money on contracts in Iraq, not net production) - the gold is what the money changers need.

Hitler famously said he would run his empire without an ounce of gold, then looted gold from all minorities in Europe.  The first stop by the US military when entering Baghdad was the State Museum, which housed many gold relics, next was the Iraqi Treasury, then Saddam's fortitied mansion where his son was holding out in the gold vault.  Lybia was the poorest African state before Gadaffi and he built a rather large gold reserve (for African standards) and was raided by western powers so swiftly Hillary Clinton was even out of the loop.

The money changers want gold and they want all the gold for the next phase of their plan which, long in the tooth, is to go back to a gold standard.

They took everyone off a gold standard long enough for people to forget what gold is - money - and will now institute it again once the populace has very little.  This has been the plan for over a hundred years:  make holding gold illegal for the health of the state, legalize it but demonize anyone owning it, and then in the last crisis go back to it.  We are in the final inning now.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:07 | 5680230 Spigot
Spigot's picture

My biggest concern is not a Hitler. It is that peripheral and core nations are abandoning the "center", the nexus of the current international power confab, and pulling their attention and energy oaway from said center. When this happens all the inter-relationships at the center begin to disintegrate. Germany "growing a pair" says to me we are on the verge of a full on international revolution which will toss the big seven into a salad maker. US, UK, Japan will not fair very well in the "next world order". And probably a good thing for the world, IMO. Though a tough time for USA/UK/JAP during the transition.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:26 | 5680550 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Who's to say they're not just putting out fake inventory reports? How would anyone prove they have any gold at all? When people say the US has serious tonnage at Fort Knox, or even West Point, who knows if they're telling the truth?

The whole 'Central Bank gold buying' press might be just total propaganda, and all the gold is down in one single vault somewhere. There's what, one Olympic swimming pool worth of gold in the whole world?

Maybe we're all being scammed by everyone, when countries go back on a 'gold standard' - and it's coming - no CB anywhere really has any gold?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:01 | 5681874 smukster
smukster's picture

Would be a nice one. I do consider the possibility of the PBoC at some point declaring they have 15.000 t when really two thirds of that is fake.

The puzzling thing here: Why does the Buba declare it publicly at this very moment?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:14 | 5681919 Freegold
Freegold's picture

There will not be another goldstandard. And if they tried it, it will fail as always. A goldstandard will fail cos we are humans and it will be corrupted as always. What we will have is a free-floating price of gold. Way way higher price! (In buying power, not nominal dollarprice).

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 08:13 | 5683110 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

Freegold

Actually gold could work; it will be tried by some, because we live in a finite planet. Gold can play the function of discriminating the vast majority to the population from critical resources without being too obvious.

 

I am not advocating gold. Gold is just the tool to distract from the real problem that is “There is no more growth”.

 

So, who controls the money and the biggest guns are the keys. But those two, as well as gold will fail too, eventually; because, by then, all the growth we had will be turning negative (we live in a finite planet).  

 

 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:37 | 5680086 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

More of the usual conspiracy bullshit from Eric King: http://kingworldnews.com/serious-questions-surround-germanys-alleged-rep...

Sorry, but ZH dropped the ball on this one big time.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:50 | 5680142 trader1
trader1's picture

Yep, they're getting sloppy.

Just like citing the Daily Mail article about Russia-Ukraine gas cutoff that was from 2009....

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:04 | 5680459 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Isn't it amazing how people who blindly follow a website claiming to be a counterbalance against the brainwashing of the mainstream media, can be so brainwashed themselves?

It's almost like a bunch of Branch Davidians here. (they were doomsday preppers too!)

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:25 | 5680545 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

hey ghost what's you point btw ?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 18:44 | 5681406 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Oh well, if it's on King World News, then it must be true. I believe ZH over them anyday!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:54 | 5680662 trader1
trader1's picture

Nothing wrong with prepping, but it shouldn't absorb all your time and effort.

on a long enough timeline...

 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 17:02 | 5680968 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

what an irrelevant comment...I spend no time prepping, but I know I should....and if someone chooses use it to absorb their time that's their right.   We all, absorb 100% of our time with something.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 02:51 | 5682862 trader1
trader1's picture

where's the love antifa?  

;-)

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 18:11 | 5681294 Augustus
Augustus's picture

So many of the current ZH articles are simply for the purposes of feeding the nutters.

The gold in the Fed vaults is supposedly non-existant.  Turmoil in gold market was supposed to result from trying to remove actual metal.  Look at gold prices - still going down.

Buba runs tests on metal received to insure for German People that they have what they should have.  Nutters call up conspiracy theories about trust.  IF Buba does not test gold then the nutters would claim that the germans obviously got screwed with fake bars.

Nutters will not pass up an opportunity to generate fiction.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 20:15 | 5681580 omniversling
omniversling's picture

5680086 Bokkenrider: Your link whilst posted on KWN is written by   Peter Boehringer Founder of Repatriate Our Gold Movement In GermanyContains no input from Eric King.

As an 'underwater' (for now) PM investor, all commentator's research as to how this monumental fraud and swindle is playing out is appreciated. Many 'industry insiders' like Andrew McGuire, von Greyerz and GATA's Chris Powell have expressed their incredulity that the scam (like LIBOR, FX, COMEX, QE, USD GRC etc) has been kept aloft for so unexpectedly long.  The German repatriation (along with other massive State acquisitions) of the 'barbarous relic' indicates to me x2 potentials: 1/ Approaching catastrophic loss of confidence in the fiat ponzi CONfidence trick, in particular the debt based $US GRC. 2/ Preparation for a bi-polar or multi-polar (global regional) currency reset with a basket of devalued (deflated) commodities plus gold. 

From my POV this started with Chavez repatriating, Germany getting told FU when they wanted to audit their bars at the Fed, the Corzining and Cyprussing of depositors. Since then we've seen the theft of Libyan, Iraqi and Ukranian gold. And of course the naked shorts using invented papergold 'futures' that have been used to kick the $US price sideways or keep a boot on it's throat for over 3 years.

The pendulum is being swung harder and harder by the 'central planners'. Oil price 'collapse', SNB/Euro peg last week, moar war, moar conTERRORemporary nihlists let loose from the Fear Factory. Seems that the plan is to explode the clock. Tabula Rasa. Hijack History. Precious little stability or predictability on the horizon. Other than: what was an ounce last week, is still an ounce this week. 

I call BS on ZH dropping the ball on this one. Kudos and thanks to researchers and commentators helping me join the dots, of this not-so-pretty picture.

 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:29 | 5679762 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

The current HMFIC is nick named MeBurro by the captives. 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:32 | 5680574 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Or better known by the phrase: "Its on like Donkey Kong!"

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:01 | 5680182 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Hmm.  A socialist who believes in hard assets.  Cognitive Dissonance much?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:28 | 5680819 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I will trade you one roll of toilet paper for that.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 19:57 | 5681662 pgroup
pgroup's picture

And that one roll of teepee will allow you to rule two acres of HugoChavez paradise. A full case will allow you to run the entire oil industry.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:25 | 5679732 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

WTF 2020??? PARIS Is A Stones Throw From BERLIN...

A Few Lorries Could Make The Transfer Within A WEEK!!!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:25 | 5679743 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

that's not the issue. the real problem is getting that stuff across the ocean. but it's important to be perceived as having equal trust in NY and Paris alike

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:37 | 5679804 pods
pods's picture

That's a lie and you know it Ghord. The real problem is unwinding all the paper associated with the underlying specie before transfer.

THAT is the problem.  

pods

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:44 | 5679844 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

of course, that is the "across the pond" problem. but France has a lot of trade with Germany. real trade. it's a jurisdiction problem, too. and so on

I would not be surprised at all if in years we find out the whole of the problem was always in London instead of NY, btw

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:49 | 5679864 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

<gives Tony "Sell!" Blair the two-finger salute>

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:50 | 5680653 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

With France's historically popsicle stick defenses why would anyone store anything of value there anyway?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:20 | 5680788 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Germany and Merkel are hanging Ukraine out to dry.

 

Too worried about their "precious euro.". Grabbing gold is not a panic towards liquidity but a panic towards SOLVENCY.

 

The bulk of German trade is inside the EZ.  If that euro thing tanks you'll have no dollars and Europe will wind up with a MASSIVE inflation.

 

Russia has already collapsed.  The Swedish Krona still looks interesting...but I'm new to this currency thingy.

 

Still killing it on the treasury call.  Wanna jump back into equities but with the oil collapse far more tempted to wait for some Bankster to cough up an 8% note on their solvency..." payable in gold" of course.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:56 | 5679913 tired1
tired1's picture

I dont know that a geographical location is a useful descriptor anymore. In times past mobility options made location useful. Today, anyplace is just hours away. There are huge entities: Goldman, the Fed, BOE, many dozens of others that are manned by more or less normal drones (many quite intelligent).

So who runs the show? What are the conflicts (Rockefeller vs Rothchild)? I dont have enough insight to answer but it does seem to operate like a force of gravity.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:46 | 5679846 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Imagine transferring all of that rehypothecation to "other" assets...it's enough to make other "owners" of gold "held" at the NY Fed nervous...

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:21 | 5680800 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Wonder how many rubles the ECB use to have.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:47 | 5679847 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

dupe - browser error

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:38 | 5679810 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Getting gold across any body of water seems to be very very tricky. Look how many people have lost all their gold in boating accidents.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:55 | 5679898 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Look at Swissair Flight 111 flying from New York to Geneva on September 2, 1998... Everyone admits there was physical gold on board (along with 50kg of banknotes, 1 kg of gemstones and a Picasso) but the actual cargo manifest detailing total quantity of gold "exiting" NYC, and the amount of gold recovered from the Canadian waters remain closely guarded secrets)

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:16 | 5679706 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

I think you're a little confused as to who the stooge is for who.  Otherwise good comment.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:25 | 5679733 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you need a picture? imagine the FED as a huge Tyrannosaurus Rex, or Godzilla. The head is the NY-FED. On it's head and all around it, the "revolving door" banksters from the US Treasury, and the US megabanks Primary Dealers, steering the beast

of course for me, as european, only the head is important. and it bites. I'm not involved in the business of being trampled by those huge local legs

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:37 | 5679788 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Well don't forget about the ENORMOUS gun being held in his short stubby little arms.

Careful fucking with the world's Tyrant-a-saurus, the USA.  It won't bite you first, just blow a huge hole in you, your eCONomy, and your country until it's a failed state.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:41 | 5679828 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

thanks for the contribution, but have you seen that every one of the teeths of that beast is laser-armed? (cue in James Bond's laser armed sharks)

in comparison, the ECB is completely misunderstood. it's more like a small army of Japanese anime medium-sized robots (the NCBs) that assemble themselves to reach the size of the FED

or are they called "transformers"?

LOL, the remark I made up there really got an... exceptional rating. that "the FED is the FED" is a strong meme, in ZH. how I love to carry my avatar, here ;-)

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:25 | 5680552 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not sure why you're getting so many downvotes for your observations, but I do have to point out that it was Dr Evil (Austin Powers) who was looking for 'sharks with frickin laser beams'.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 05:53 | 5682985 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

thanks, that was what I was looking for. not that I care for "votes", but technically, sarcasm needs proper delivery, like humour. and I missed the proper delivery for sure

I guess there is a huge amount of ZH readers that only log in for big gold-related articles. gold is safety, and those readers represent a huge demand for safety, clearness

ambiguos remarks represent neither. completely understandable, imho

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:18 | 5679711 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Germany has destroyers. They are allowed to make port calls here. Have one of them make a NY port call, load up all that gold, and head back to Germany. Easy and cheaper than paying to fly it across a few tons at a time. Unless all that gold isn't there .....

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:40 | 5679813 pods
pods's picture

The gold is there, but removing the foundation of an Ueber levered product can cause quite a shitstorm.  

Can't let anyone know that the FED leased out Germany's gold.

pods

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:08 | 5679938 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Interesting how much gold is being moved out of NY after JPM sold 1CMP.

Remind me who bought it?

On a related note, where the fuck did GLD get 9 tonnes last week?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:42 | 5680090 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"...The knockout gas spewed into the NY Fed thru the secret tunnel, knocking out all guards. The PRC Commando Team entered the Fed vaults.

"Peking 1, this is Peking Duck. It is all gone, Minister. Just as you expected. Over."

"Thank you, Peking Duck. Return to base. Over."

"Good job, comrades! We must return to 1CMP and await extraction via the roof helipad."

(chop chop chop rotor blades)

"Wang Fook, look below! Do you know what our discovery means?"
"No, Fook Yu."
"In a few months you and I can own one of those city blocks!"

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:59 | 5680167 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Not many more turns remaining in this big-league game of . . . JENGA !

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:37 | 5680350 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

I hope Gold move before the Draghicula announcement...and Syriza's election in Greece.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:56 | 5679868 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Germany has destroyers. They are allowed to make port calls here. Have one of them make a NY port call, load up all that gold, and head back to Germany. Easy and cheaper than paying to fly it across a few tons at a time. Unless all that gold isn't there .....

210 tonnes left?  Couldn't zee four German Brandenburg-class frigates easily do the job in one trip?

  • Displacement:     3,600 tons (4,490t full load)
  • Range:     4,000 nautical miles (7,400 km; 4,600 mi) at 18 knots (33 km/h; 21 mph)

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:35 | 5680070 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"...as the German ship headed home, a torpedo struck. Unknown to observers, a giant net was concealed beneath the waves. The secret Glomar Explorer V had scooped the entire ship into a net. The gold was quickly offloaded and returned to the Fed."

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 19:05 | 5681479 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

They'd torpedo them before they picked up the gold.

I have a feeling everyone at the top knows this shit show will be over in a generation. The great gold con of the NY Fed will be common knowledge in 20 years.

That said, I'm guessing the NY Fed is getting close to not allowing anymore releases of gold.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:42 | 5680099 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

B...b...but it's a logistical problem according to the officials.  The barbarous relic is too heavy and cumbersome to make the transfer all at once.  Don't you understand?

You've been reported!  Please report for mandatory re-education therapy.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:19 | 5680274 7.62x54r
7.62x54r's picture

Each ton of that barbarous relic wieghs exactly ... one ton.

Yea, I'll be sure to report myself.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:54 | 5680666 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Turbo Timmy Geithner would gladly smuggle it all out stuffed up his loose asshole,...the more trips the better.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:57 | 5680691 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You may find Timmy's "retention" a bit lacking, all those years at the NY Fed were hard on his little puckered rose.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 20:43 | 5681813 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

One cubic foot = a little over 1200 el bees. For the man who has everything, currently that's a 22.4 million dollar doorstop. Get em while they're still taking 2241 Woodrow Wilsons or Salmon Chases.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:56 | 5680679 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Wouldn't you want to move a larger number of smaller amounts so as to not risk losing all of it in any one heist anyway? Eggs, baskets, and all that.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:13 | 5681917 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

It's a matter of logistics and logic. A cubic foot isn't much, still it weighs 1200 pounds of gold. A typical 400 troy ounce CB ingot weighs 27.28 lbs. How many could one carry out in one's pockets without blowing a nut? Ya, get a rigger and a forklift; then there's that other matter of liquidity. What would you take in trade? More fiat? A million tons of steel? A couple million pork bellies? Can you tell I've spent time contemplating doing bad-d-d things? For a book of course.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 22:26 | 5682233 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

50 whores and a bag of blow the size of the stay puffed marshmallow man.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:32 | 5680840 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Like john kerry,first I was against you and then now I'm for you.You may be on to something regarding NY Fed.Howevwer Fed reserve is a tool of private banks.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 16:37 | 5680861 Gold is money -...
Gold is money - and bullets if your out of lead's picture

"signaling system"

You know that shit does not happen in a true market where price dicovery is real.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 05:56 | 5682986 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I was thinking more about "forward guidance". The FED has done so much of it that the whole financial world was completely flabbergasted when the SNB went against that trend and did something unexpected

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 17:26 | 5681101 Dugald
Dugald's picture

 

It had to be re-cast after drilling every bar, and a side benefit is they can get rid of the stuff that still has swastika's on it

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 17:57 | 5681226 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

Destroying valuable collectables!!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 21:43 | 5682010 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

Nobody is talking about Europeans here....

This is about Germany.

The one that's gonna deep six this EU none sense.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 12:06 | 5683942 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

"THE" Fed is the New York Fed, asshole!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 12:07 | 5683948 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

"THE" Fed is the New York Fed, arschloch!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:41 | 5679825 will ling
will ling's picture

sure looks "fishy".

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:31 | 5680052 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It is certainly possible.

We cannot tell, but add up the deaths of Breitbart, Hastings... it looks suspicious in light of those other deaths!

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:49 | 5680410 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

TY for the great link, PP.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:57 | 5680447 swass
swass's picture

The film trailer looked epic.  I remember they showed this at a local libertarian convention in MN.  Personally, I think the idea is great and I hope they move forward with it.  Perhaps the press this all gets helps move the film forward.  Americans love their 'entertainment', and films that depict something at least plausible, are entertaining, end up evoking real emotion, and this could add some real numbers behind the freedom movement.

Who knows if this guy really did the murder suicide.  It'd be interesting to hear from family and friends that knew them to see if they even thought something like this was possible.  If it was the government though, there is no chance we'll ever find out.  At best, it will be chalked up to an unsolved case.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:29 | 5679760 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

 

Everyone talks about how Germany realized it wouldn't get its gold back, and so they pretended to be satisfied in its safety and security in US vaults in order to save face politically. But few people see this as cunning strategy. By saying that their gold is safe and secure in US vaults, this helps them unload their holdings onto the market at artificially inflated prices. Why try to repatriate your physical from a deadbeat custodian and get 2 or 3 cents on the dollar, when you can unload them into the market in the form of ETFs and get 95 cents on the dollar? This could largely explain the price suppression of gold over the past 3 years. If true, it means we're heading for a black swan day where we wake up to the news that a major gold delivery contract failed, GLD has crashed to under $100 an ounce, and physical gold is trading at thousands per ounce.

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:45 | 5680637 markettime
markettime's picture

Hmmm Deposit for the BRICS banking system?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:08 | 5679683 Truther
Truther's picture

Gold is money....'Nuff said.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:16 | 5679939 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

I'll take a wild guess that germany is in agreement with the USSA to lie about the bars, that they were the very same numbered bars they entrusted them with some 50 years ago.  and this may also be a contributing factor why germany hasn't left the EU yet: they are holding them hostage with their own gold.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 06:10 | 5682994 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are a victim of this funny meme that Germany is held captive or hostage in the EU. or in the eurozone, or in the NATO

who is really held captive in the EU is... England. Yes, not the UK, not even the City of London or Greater London or Scotland, then the last two are pro-EU

England minus London is held captive in the EU, against popular will, if you want. victim of the way the UK grew and formed it's national union

but Germany? the common German is one of the EU-enthusiasts par excellence. federalism as a concept is strong, in Germany, which is itself a federation of semi-sovereigns

if you read only ZH and the NYT you'll not come to this conclusion, granted, because both spend a lot of ink to the few Germans that are against it

meanwhile Obama just explained Cameron that he wishes the UK to stay in the EU, in order to leverage the influence the US has on the UK and through it on the EU as a whole

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 07:56 | 5683084 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

ghordius, writing style indicates to me more than one person is using that name..which also brings to mind the possibility that these posters are beaurocrats working for the EU, perhaps in Brussels.

there is the historical ghordius for example "the most interesting man in the world" and

the one posting here, more pro EU and less able word smith.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:04 | 5683187 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

"writing style indicates to me more than one person is using that name"

Can you substantiate that with concrete examples ? 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:14 | 5683208 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

ms pirate, well yes I will give you an example of historical ghordius, from the french terror thread..

ghordius :

"the key word is... starting. Take, as an easy example, the flagship of the French galley fleet in the Med, that was always called La_Réale (The Royal)

the first La Réale was built in 1538, the last one of the eleven was built in 1734, part of a substantial galley fleet

for corsair purposes, the galley was used until Lord Nelson's times, and was very useful for (light) reconaissance even later, though the rowing boats started to change and be called differently, particularly those used by the Spaniards. but I don't have to believe him. plenty of other descriptions from better sources"..

compare with this threads posts of ghordius the lower iq one..

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:34 | 5683225 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I can't prove that I am the only one that uses my nick. but I have one thought for you: how do you write foreign languages?

in my case, I don't think in English. but I do think in several other languages. depending from which one I'm using, my syntax does change a bit

but here my second line of defense: I sometimes dabble in the art of trolling, on impulse. up here a bad example for that. I'm really not good at it

funny stuff, brains. not so dependable, at my ripe age. but here my third line of defense:

sometimes I dictate my comments to my secretary ;-) and yes, she is very sexy, though she blushes when I say that (though she did not write the above, nothing of it. it's all mine)

but it's nice to have my words so well analyzed

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:38 | 5683253 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Ghordius "the most interesting man alive" has spoken so it shall be.

I have a lot of fun with you, and as interesting an explanation as any i have seen..your secretary is a lucky lady and as outlandish an explanation it might just be true...LOL

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:47 | 5683298 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

overmed, to be frank if I had a team I'd give them each twenty nicks. I suspect many of the "trolls" we do have here do operate in this way

there is another thing: I'm not so fast with the keyboard. I've spoiled many comments by trying to be one of the first. and perhaps you've noticed that I then tend to focus too much on replying to others, and so fall into OT

and there is even another thing: the different styles of the Tyler(s) distract me, in a big way. there is one of them that drives me completely nuts

very happy to hear you are having fun ;-) 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 10:29 | 5683479 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

"ms pirate"

Thanks for contributing to the enigma. :-)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 10:36 | 5683503 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

piratepiet enigmatic? I'd guess you are Belgian/Flamish. male, between 20 and 30, technical (or artistic) secundary education, little finance knowledge but some thirst for it, bourgeouis background more likely then working class

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 10:44 | 5683525 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

You are half right, but you do not know exactly which half...:-)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 10:44 | 5683541 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

and it's better so. never was much for this "who are you to say so" stuff. I'm here for the arguments, not the people. good arguments are like children of the mind

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 11:09 | 5683568 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

well you can probably guess which half is more likely to be true than the other half. 

Funny, when people ask me if I want to have children, I sometimes reply that my thoughts are my children.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 11:31 | 5683742 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

 

 

sorry, I do not see it.  You mean the above is incorrect and is an indication of a ( comparatively ) lower IQ person masquerading as Ghordius ? A Ghordius light, so to speak ?   

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:45 | 5680057 noben
noben's picture

No trouble at all: America's largest military base in Europe is just a few clicks down the road.

If or when they leave, so does the gold. Same as always. For this reason alone... it's no biggie.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:00 | 5680191 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

This is the end game, simple as that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yloaBw80fV4

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:29 | 5680317 thefrenchfrog
thefrenchfrog's picture

“No one really understands gold prices” Ben S. Bernanke, PhD.  LMFAO

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:04 | 5680476 NMFP
NMFP's picture

Sploosh!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 09:29 | 5683216 Redhotfill
Redhotfill's picture

Why would that gold need to be REMELTED?  Because it having freshly arrived from Libya has their hallmarks on it.  Thank god for the Fed somone was able to find them some gold huh? 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 10:59 | 5683604 spenny
spenny's picture

a curious thought. Why are they all melting down the gold to meet "todays new standard"? anybody else think they might be covering up the origins of it? it is not conspiracy to know that the Nazis had a large war chest and a lot of gold. theories anyone?

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:05 | 5679666 Truthseeker2
Truthseeker2's picture

GOLD Price Breakout contingent upn --->

2015 AND 2016 COLLAPSE TIMELINE

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:37 | 5679799 ultramaroon
ultramaroon's picture

You are a madman, and you have reminded me of a quote from G. K. Chesterton. I forgot the exact quote, so I looked it up. Here it is:

"The madman’s explanation of a thing is always complete, and often in a purely rational sense satisfactory. Or, to speak more strictly, the insane explanation, if not conclusive, is at least unanswerable; this may be observed specially in the two or three commonest kinds of madness. If a man says (for instance) that men have a conspiracy against him, you cannot dispute it except by saying that all the men deny that they are conspirators; which is exactly what conspirators would do. His explanation covers the facts as much as yours. Or if a man says that he is the rightful King of England, it is no complete answer to say that the existing authorities call him mad; for if he were King of England that might be the wisest thing for the existing authorities to do. Or if a man says that he is Jesus Christ, it is no answer to tell him that the world denies his divinity; for the world denied Christ’s."

"Nevertheless he is wrong. But if we attempt to trace his error in exact terms, we shall not find it quite so easy as we had supposed. Perhaps the nearest we can get to expressing it is to say this: that his mind moves in a perfect but narrow circle. A small circle is quite as infinite as a large circle; but, though it is quite as infinite, it is not so large. In the same way the insane explanation is quite as complete as the sane one, but it is not so large. A bullet is quite as round as the world, but it is not the world. There is such a thing as a narrow universality; there is such a thing as a small and cramped eternity; you may see it in many modern religions. Now, speaking quite externally and empirically, we may say that the strongest and most unmistakable MARK of madness is this combination between a logical completeness and a spiritual contraction. The lunatic’s theory explains a large number of things, but it does not explain them in a large way. I mean that if you or I were dealing with a mind that was growing morbid, we should be chiefly concerned not so much to give it arguments as to give it air, to convince it that there was something cleaner and cooler outside the suffocation of a single argument"

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:26 | 5680023 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Interesting, "The lunatic’s theory explains a large number of things, but it does not explain them in a large way." So apply Occam's razor and you will see, perhaps, that the madman is not as mad as he first appeared.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:45 | 5680385 ultramaroon
ultramaroon's picture

What Chesterton meant is that the larger "infinite circle" represents messy, chaotic, random, complex reality. The smaller infinite circle of the lunatic's mind could just as well contain as many elements. However, those items interact in ways that bear the unmistakable marks of lunacy. There actually is a certain simplicity and elegance about the lunatic's mind; that's why sane people are sometimes overwhelmed by lunatics. Marshall Applewhite may actually have presented a compelling case to his followers that the Hale-Bopp comet was going to come and save The Elect, but a sane man would say, "Hey! Yeah, and the Great Pumpkin is going to come and give candy to all the good little children!"

Occam's Razor is not the Sanctum Sanctorum of scientific theory; it's just a heuristic that helps people in their modeling behavior. And besides, Chesterton didn't say, "The smaller the circle, the simpler it must be", so you are wrong to suggest that the small "infinite circle" belonging to the madman is more likely to contain a better model of reality than Reality itself. That is absurd.

Occam's razor lends predictive power to attempts to find the most highly probable solution, or program, or explanation, for a limited problem within a set of proposed solutions. It does not categorically state that "The smallest widget is the simplest and, therefore, the most valuable widget, and for every application to which a widget could be put". If the former was a true statement, then dropping a gerbil on a terrorist's bunker would be a better idea than dropping a 500-pound JDAM on it. It would be better to displace a hundred tons of dirt with needle-nose pliers than with a Case 2050 dozer.

My comment to the guy who recommends the loony web site had more to do with folly of attempting to predict anything with Holy Numbers(tm) and dead chickens than it did predicting outcomes in a dick-measuring contest in reverse ("Smaller really IS better, y'all!").

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 15:42 | 5680615 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Your comment (and referenced sources) provides a pretty good way of evaluating the various conspiracy theories that abound these days.  Not to say they aren't true (at least some of them) as much as to say that some of them may capture elements of the truth, but within the larger and more complex reality within which they exist.  I know this isn't the essence of your comment as it relates to lunacy, but I think its a reasonable extrapolation.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:07 | 5679674 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

Ukraine mess suddenly gave Germany some leverage.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 12:30 | 5679764 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

The issues with German reptriation is one of the reasons I started buying gold miners and writing puts on them several months ago.

But here is a wild conjecture.  What if the US set up and sponsored coup in Ukraine was just a way to be able to spirit away the gold in their vaults in order to get the gold needed to ship to benficial holders of the Fed because the Fed doesnt HAVE the gold?  And are there other countries whose treasuries we are devising ways of raiding?

I have no basis for such a conjecture just hinking out loud.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:31 | 5680040 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

You write puts on cash. You write covered calls on an owned position.

You write puts to purchase at a given price, or to speculate that price will increase so you can pocket the premium.

You do not write "covered" puts as a put will force you to buy more of that which you already own.

Perhaps I just misunderstood your comment, "I started buying gold miners and writing puts on them."

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:36 | 5680071 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Note I did not say I was writing covered puts.  I am writing puts to OWN more of the names.  If price goes down and the sares are put to me great.  I took some premium to buy them cheaper.  If not I will collect a tiny premium which would be a nonoptimal outcome.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 13:44 | 5680109 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

No problem, however your wrote: "I started buying gold miners and writing puts on them several months ago." You did NOT write that you were writing puts to expand an existing position in miners. And you are not writing puts on the shares you own to protect your downside. My bad. Your strategy has merit for any names in which you want to establish or grow a position.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 18:30 | 5681369 Augustus
Augustus's picture

He wrote exactly what he did.  He bought mining shares.  He wrote puts on mining shares.

YOU made the bad assumptions.

Mon, 01/19/2015 - 14:36 | 5680343 PTR
PTR's picture

I think da AU was just the prize inside the geopolitcal cracker jack.  Not saying that it wasn't at the front of some people's minds, though.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!