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The "Deflationary Vortex": Global Dollar Economy Suffers Biggest Plunge Since Lehman, Down $4 Trillion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the macroeconomic observations that has gotten absolutely no mention in recent months is the curious fact that while global economic growth has not imploded in recent quarters, it is because GDP has been represented, as is customary, in local currency terms. Of course, this comes as a time when local currencies (at least those which are not the USD) have been plunging against the greenback on the back of the expectations that the Fed will hike rates some time in the summer or later in 2015. Which also means that in "dollar economy" terms, i.e., converted in USD, things are not nearly as good.

In fact, as the chart below shows, the global dollar economy is not only shrinking fast, but it is doing so at the fastest pace since the Lehman collapse, having shrunk by $4 trillion, or a whopping 5%, in just the last 6 months! 

By way of comparison the dollar economy lost $7 trillion, or a 10% contraction, during the Lehman crisis. Should the USD continue to appreciate, the global dollar economy collapse may surpass the plunge observed just as the great financial crisis struck. SocGen calls it "a deflationary vortex"; CNBC would call it a "global recovery."

Here is SocGen on this largely undiscussed topic with "The deflationary vortex of a shrinking dollar economy"

As the ECB prepares to race faster in a bid to export deflation, the risk is that the dollar economy (world GDP measured in US dollars) will shrink further. The dollar economy is down by just over 5% since July, marking a loss of just over $4tn in nominal terms. The last sharp contraction of the dollar economy took place in 2008. Back then the economy shrank by just over $7tn, marking a loss in excess of 10%. The foreign trade mix of the US fairly closely mirrors the composition of world GDP. As such, if the trade weighted dollar is appreciating, then this exerts downward pressure on the dollar economy on a near one-to-one basis. Any offset then comes from nominal GDP growth in local currency terms. Since July, the trade weighted dollar has gained just over 10%.

 

Viewing the global economy from the vantage point of the dollar economy, it is hardly surprising that when the trade weighted dollar appreciates, commodity demand is eroded as economies with depreciating currencies lose purchasing power. To the extent that central banks actively seek currency depreciation, this could see further shrinkage of the dollar economy and add further downward pressure to commodity prices. Analysis by the IMF (WEO, April 2008), suggest that, as a rule of thumb, a 1% appreciation in the trade weighted dollar yields a 0.89% decline in the oil price after 1 month and 1.13% after 12 months.

 

There also seems to be a link between the size of the dollar economy and long bond yields. Again, this link has a sound economic rational. As major central banks ease monetary policy relative to the US, this not only lowers interest rates in the country in question, but also eases (ceteris paribus) pressure on the Fed to tighten. To the extent that foreign investors expect further dollar appreciation, this also triggers capital flows that exert further downward pressure on US interest rates. A shrinking dollar economy is also a headwind for corporate earnings.

 

The irony it seems is that as a growing number of central banks actively seek to export deflation, this could further exacerbate the market phenomena that have investors on edge. In a nutshell, if central bank accommodation and lower commodity prices fail to sufficiently boost GDP and inflation elsewhere in the world, the dollar economy is likely to shrink further. From a fundamental point of view, this is a clearly down side risk.

Yes, we too find it ironic that central bank policies are now actively collapsing the global economy just so they can boost stock prices a little bit higher before the rug is pulled from underneath everyone, and find it even more ironic that it took sellside pundits and the peanut gallery just about 6 years to figure it out.

 

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Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:30 | 5684983 stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

liftoff!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:33 | 5685000 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Liftoff Elon Musk style, it sounds like!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:40 | 5685022 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture
"Krugman: Swiss Currency Move Shows 'Just How Hard it Is to Fight Deflation'  " This is what they feed the sheeple WTF
Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:01 | 5685124 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Krugman: the Joseph Goebbels of economics:

"Inflation is necessary."

"We must spend faster, or we will go broke."

"Spending is saving."

"Debt is wealth."

"Savings are poverty."

 

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:26 | 5685217 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

C'mon Tyler, and call a spade a spade here. The central bankster's owners are in the process of executing the ultimate pump-and-dump.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:59 | 5685369 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

ZeroHedge, Robert Prechter, and SocGen.  Birds of a feather.  More will join as it becomes increasingly obvious.  With rates so low for so long and personal, corporate, municipal, state/provincial, and sovereign debt nearly maxed out everywhere, and with the rabbit of baby boomers moving through the population snake set to commence retiring, the prolonged economic stagnation in front of us should be pretty obvious to all concerned. 

Personally, I think central bankers are freaking out.  They need a new set of policy mechanisms because, while QE can cause monetary inflation (the worst kind), that's no solution for a deflationary debt trap.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:23 | 5685463 Syrin
Syrin's picture

 I don't think they are freaking out enough until they are concerned about keeping their lives, rather than their excess riches.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:04 | 5685609 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

"heads will roll" is not just a saying

The guillotine was made famous during the reign of terror phase of the French Revolution

lot of bankster heads in baskets then

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:19 | 5685656 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

DEFLATION ??? Bullshit...

""Historic 1964 Ferrari 250 LM races to an impressive $9.6 million as records tumble at RM's Arizona sale""

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:36 | 5685928 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Using a Ferrari to make an inflationary argument. LOL

I'm sorry us commoners just don't grasp that. If you want to make an inflationary argument, try staples like food. And by the way, I am in the deflationary camp and have been for years and have been correct thus far.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:49 | 5686182 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Sessinpo - Agree using a classic car compared to staples is an absurd argument but I down voted you for stating you were in the deflationary camp for years. If so, you have been wrong for years and either did not hedge properly or gave bad advice that lost money.

I am reminded of people here that still say QE Foreva! Or rates can never rise!

I like other commentaries of yours better than this one.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:44 | 5685960 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

That's the rich just getting out of US dollar!!  They want tangible assets..  Not funny money..  

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:20 | 5685863 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

"heads will roll" is not just a saying

CORRECT!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:38 | 5685938 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Then what? They just stick another person in there after the reset and the game continues. Have we learned nothing yet?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:39 | 5686146 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Syrin - Unless there is a global war I believe they would only be freaking out how larger countries decide on debt repudiation. The US government can revoke the Fed's charter any time it chooses.

A government that continues to cut more of the social safety net, increases taxation with inflation, ACA etc. will face potential military coup if debt is not repudiated and serviced while people are taxed up the ass with no services.

Kick the can can no longer be sustained, the jig is up.
"First by inflation then by deflation". Remember that Jefferson quote?
Those in high finance make buttloads in commissions issuing debt, it can't be serviced and then bust! But they buy hard assets for .20 on the dollar during deflation phase and THIS is the real reason to have saved some dry powder and why many ZH peeps did it in gold, because bankers can't be trusted something my Grandmother told me. She was sure wise about telling me a few things even if she didn't know all the technicals of the CB boom/bust scam.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 23:19 | 5686814 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Good points all...but how do you fight "deflation" by destroying the value of paper money?

 

I understand the incentive to "inflate the debt away" but how is the Bank then advantaged by an asset price failure?

Hasn't he just lost all his collateral?

 

Then SECURTIES business (in theory) is advantaged by an an asset bubble and collapse...but NOT the Bank.

 

Gold of course is always good collateral..but who would lend against that?

 

Oil on the other hand is the greatest collateral EVER.

 

Of course so is a solid economic recovery.  "No nation can live by debt alone.  It needs equity too.". And I ain't talking the stock market.

 

Number One on that list is INVENTORIES.

 

This so called recovery has always stood out to me for its lack of an inventory build.

 

That might be about to change...but maybe for the wrong reason.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:00 | 5685598 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

When all else fails, they will mail everyone a big check to keep this one a float. It will just continue to get worse until the basic system of central banks fails completely. I wonder how far we are from that.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:47 | 5685757 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

"they will mail everyone a big check"

Perhaps... if you believe their stated goals.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:38 | 5686143 upWising
upWising's picture

They will mail us all a bag or two seeds which we will dutifully plant.  Soon thereafter, we will admire the "green shoots!" of economic recovery.

[Whatever happened to that meme, "green shoots"?]

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:43 | 5685755 Stroke
Stroke's picture

a deflationary debt trap..............

 

 

ain't it the fuckin' truth

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:07 | 5685401 mt paul
mt paul's picture

the pump don't work

cause vandals [math,reality]

stole the handle

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:58 | 5685589 tradingdaze
tradingdaze's picture

Don't need a weather vain to tell which way the wind blows.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:29 | 5686114 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

Tradingdaze

weather vain; every TV station has at least one in the news studio.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:25 | 5685888 smukster
smukster's picture

This is the first time I read real nonsense here on ZH.

If the global economy in $ terms is going down that quickly, there is either sth wrong with the global economy - or with the $.

Which is more probable?

Dear US, in case you haven't noticed: Your $ is now rapidly losing its status. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:27 | 5685226 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Krugman, aka Mr. Broken Window. Since deflation is harming the economy, perhaps bankers should stimulate the economy by breaking some windows and jumping out of them.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:28 | 5685229 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Dollar shortage or are our trade partners dumping the dollar?

Choose wisely.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:27 | 5685684 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Both.

I wonder if this is an  iunintended consequence that  dragged down oil, rather than vice versa.

Either way, RIP petrodollar.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:43 | 5685958 smukster
smukster's picture

Count the elephants in the room!

1. China is hoarding gold

2. more and more countries turn their back on the $

3. the low oilprice signals a looming crisis

4. the west's allies are running away by the dozen

5. the EU will have to choose

6.....

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:51 | 5685978 smukster
smukster's picture

Well...Krugman's only 90% right.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:47 | 5685041 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

The dipshits just had to wait until we were fully immersed in the 4 part BLOOD MOON cycle.

 

It's evident that they SUCK at 'manipulating' the economy. I guess they think the next best option is to try & 'manipulate' prophecy.

 

At least SOMEBODY gets to be right.

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:06 | 5685146 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Interesting article. Aside from the main point of chronological repitition, I found the biblical reference to debt forgiveness after seven years as a noteworthy datapoint. The highest-ups love making/manipulating prophecies come true.

Debt forgiveness, eh? Is it time to max out those CCs?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:45 | 5685168 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

@Skate

 

I found that 'debt forgiveness' part [aspect] fascinating as well.

 

I'm neither a biblical, nor prophecy nut. HOWEVER ~ I've come to find that these inbred, so called, 'ELITES', seem to use that bullshit as a MANIFESTO [since none of them seem capable of engineering an original thought on their collective own].

 

Makes you wonder.

 

I mean... FFS ~ I don't really get into cartoons or comic strips, but I suppose I'm condemmed here to devolve into the comic book mentality of these idiots [for survival] for whatever reason [which is still unclear to me at this juncture of the space~time continuim].

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:09 | 5685412 Usurious
Usurious's picture

nice........Inbred Elites........I like it

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 22:47 | 5686668 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Romney Wordsworth = Montgomery Scott, right???

not that it matters, really, but it is pretty easy to see

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:01 | 5685119 nuubee
nuubee's picture

His liftoffs have been fine... it's his landings that haven't been so smooth.

oh wait, was that your point?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:15 | 5685180 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

"Liftoff Elon Musk style, it sounds like!"

 

The liftoff worked perfectly.  The 45 degree landing had a small problem.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:40 | 5685289 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

OT...

Shocking news out of Argentina!

No gunpowder traces found on Nisman’s hands, tests ordered on alleged weapon

The forensic analysis on AMIA special prosecutor Alberto Nisman’s body confirmed that there were no traces of gunpowder on his hands.

http://buenosairesherald.com/article/179980/no-gunpowder-traces-found-on...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:38 | 5685521 pods
pods's picture

The guy looked pretty well kept, maybe he just cleaned it off his hands after he shot himself?

pdos

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:11 | 5685629 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

That's just how they do it down there.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:34 | 5685004 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Prof. Fekete says (paraphrase).. They are trying to sow the seeds of inflation but they will reap deflation.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:53 | 5685073 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

If they really want inflation, they should just do a helecopter drop of cold, hard cash to the masses. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:57 | 5685087 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

84 month, zero down sign and drive car notes. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:59 | 5685105 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

But that only applies to cars.  If they want broad, across the board inflation, seriously, print tens of thousands in physical FRNs for every man, woman and child and ship it out to the masses.  That'll get shit going.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:06 | 5685138 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

Trav7777 always said the GOV would print debt-free currency at some point.........

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:50 | 5685520 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

his name was Trav7777

 

 

Chancellor: Wordsworth, Romney, Field Investigation Finding Obsolescence. Do you know why you're here Mr.Wordsworth?

Wordsworth: Yes sir...

Chancellor: I'd ask you to speak up a little if you will, Mr.Wordsworth.

Wordsworth: Yes, sir, I know why I'm here....

Chancellor: You've been under investigation, Mr.Wordsworth for the mandatory period of 1 year and 11 months, you are found to be obsolete. The purpose of this hearing to make a finding in the matter and make a sentence accordingly. Do you understand that?

Wordsworth: I understand that.

Chancellor: Your occupation Mr.Wordsworth?

Wordsworth: A librarian, sir....

(Crowd jeers confusingly)

Chancellor: (Puzzled and angrily).....A what!?

Wordsworth: A librarian, sir...

Chancellor: (To Secretary) Has this man had counsel?

Secretary: Yes,sir, he has.

Chancellor: Has he been given orientation?

Secretary: Yes, sir.

(As this goes on, Wordsworth steps back into the darkness, as if knowing his fate)

Chancellor: Mr.Wordsworth, I've been told you've been given counsel (notices he's out of the light)...STEP BACK INTO THE LIGHT, MR.WORDSWORTH!

(Wordsworth steps back into the light)

Chancellor: I'm told you've been given Counsel, Mr. Wordsworth. But I'm still not sure, in my own mind, you understand the nature of this hearing. The field investigators in your sector have classified you as obsolete, this finding carries with it serious implications. Do you understand that, Mr.Wordsworth?

(Wordsworth nods)

Chancellor: I'd ask you again, your occupation Mr.Wordsworth?

Wordsworth: I AM a librarian, that IS my occupation, that is my PROFESSION. If you people choose to call that obsolete...

Secretary: Request clarification of the term...

Chancellor: Yes... Mr.Wordsworth, the term "You people," you make reference to The State?

Wordsworth: I make reference to The State.

Chancellor: And you persist in declaring your occupation as being that of a librarian. Is that correct?

Wordsworth: Yes, sir, that's correct.

Chancellor: A librarian. Having to do...with books.

Wordsworth: (Proudly) Yes sir...books!

Chancellor: Since there are no more books, Mr. Wordsworth, there are no more libraries, and, of course, as it follows, there is very little call for the services of a librarian. Case in point: A minister. A minister would tell us that his function is that of preaching the word of God. And since it follows that since The State has proven that there is no God, that would make the function of a minister quite academic as well...

Wordsworth: There IS a God!!

(Crowd jeers in shock. The chancellor looks angry)

Chancellor: You are in error, Wordsworth. There is NO GOD! (To the crowd) The STATE HAS PROVEN THAT THERE IS NO GOD!!

Wordworth: You cannot erase God, with an edict!

(Crowd is even more in shock at Wordsworth)

Chancellor: You are obsolete, Mr.Wordsworth!

Wordsworth: A lie, no man is obsolete!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:08 | 5685155 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Bush tried the gift checks.

Bush even tossed pallets of $100.00 bills into the mix.

He still canceled the free market system.

We need to euthanize those born before 1946 – the so-called “Silent Generation”.  

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:11 | 5685167 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I'm talking about more than pallets.  I'm talking trillions, all dumped into the economy at once.  It would spark some real price inflation.  It would probably jack up a bunch of other things in the mean time, but you would get to watch shit fly off of the shelves.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:10 | 5685415 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Agreed, this financialized consumer credit slop has no where near the impact on the broader economy than a massive cash drop would.

Multiply all tax refunds (individual's AGI < $150k) by 10 and drop it in their bank accounts.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:10 | 5685164 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Here P00k1e this just came up:

Honda Warns Against ‘Stupid’ Auto Loans Driving U.S. Sales Gains

"A top U.S. executive at Honda Motor Co. (7267) said competitors are doing “stupid things” to boost auto sales, including making seven-year-long car loans that harm buyers.

Automakers are increasingly selling vehicles with 84-month loans that reduce monthly payments while making it tougher to repay faster than cars lose value, John Mendel, Honda’s U.S. sales chief, said in an interview. The Tokyo-based company will avoid longer-term loans even as Nissan Motor Co. (7201) tries to supplant it as the fifth-biggest automaker in the U.S., he said.

“You’re ringing the bell on a new-car sale, but that customer is saddled -- they’re stretched so thin,” Mendel said at the North American International Auto Show last week. Extended-term loans are “stupid not just for us, but for the industry.”"

"“We’ve seen this movie before, we know how it ends, and it’s not pretty,” Webb told reporters at an event before last week’s show. “But I say that it has longer to run, and we have already paid the price of admission. So we might as well stay to the end. You just keep your eyes on the exit door.”"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-20/honda-warns-against-stupid-auto...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:46 | 5685308 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Nice.  Add some 'Auto Show Bonus Cash' back and ya got a deal.  :)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:10 | 5685419 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Its a crack deal

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:44 | 5685042 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Much like the boners from the Russian Bride ads.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:03 | 5685126 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Someone else threw the tip out there.... ghostery really works. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:52 | 5685069 RegularJoe
RegularJoe's picture

It all smells like the end of 2008.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:56 | 5685089 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It smells like 50BC, 476, 1775, 1914, 1929, 1939, 2003, and 2008 all rolled into one. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:25 | 5686344 nuke ISIS now
nuke ISIS now's picture

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:32 | 5684990 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

As long as it hastens the global unwind of Central Bank hegemony I'm happy.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:36 | 5685008 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I think we're actually getting close.  If I'm wrong, we'll probably have to wait for another 6-8 year boom-bust cycle. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:48 | 5685049 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

It's this year or never. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:04 | 5685137 Dead Canary
Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:37 | 5685019 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

And we've barely begun.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:35 | 5685002 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

hurry up and print moar USD so we can keep pretending we live in a utopia filled with unicorns and pots of gold.  the next "monetary" stimulus will be to fund a fiscal stimulus of $1T.  $10K rebates for every family in the US.  party on Wayne.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:06 | 5685151 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

I just LOVE looking at a 6-month of DXY... it looks so NATURAL. The Army Corps of Engineers would be proud to build a road up a mountain with such a consistent grade.

Everything's fixed alright.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:36 | 5685007 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

The Central Bank's trickery is simply no longer able to hold of a massive downturn through money printing. The Oil signal came first, now others reveal themselves. The 2008 cover up was very deftly handled, but the old tricks don't work any more, fundamentals are coming out of the woodwork. Oil should have gotten people's attention. The EU is a slow motion implosion, as are others.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:54 | 5685070 Money Boo Boo
Money Boo Boo's picture

That's why WOAR is their exit plan. There's a jihadi boogeyman around every corner now !

BOO!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:19 | 5685198 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I need to be wholeselling jingo right now , its flying off the shelves.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:03 | 5685133 malek
malek's picture

The central banks have the means (freshly printed) to buy up the majority of all bonds and then stocks too, to control prices themselves.

As long as people believe stock or bond prices are still valid indicators for the state of the economy, this can go on.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:05 | 5686264 fuu
fuu's picture

I think gold went first. Either the actual break at the peak in 2011 or the peak in October 2012. QE3 at $40B/mo started in September 2012 and gold fell apart. When QE3 was accelerated to $80B/mo in December 2012 gold broke down more. I think it was understood early on that there would be no real inflation creation. I think many folks got fooled by the escape velocity inflation expectations that never materialized.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:37 | 5685015 geekz_rule
geekz_rule's picture

thanks obama!!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:48 | 5685053 10mm
10mm's picture

thanks obama, and congress and satanic movements.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:35 | 5685016 homonohumanus
homonohumanus's picture

Deflatil rules, nuff to say

http://www.la-vie-naturelle.com/fre/2/deflatil

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:26 | 5685220 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

????

Are u ok frenchy ?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:46 | 5685316 homonohumanus
homonohumanus's picture

Hardly ;)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:40 | 5685024 Pol Pot
Pol Pot's picture

None of these numbers will matter when the greenback goes to zero.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:42 | 5685031 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

NegroDamus predicted today that the Dow would erase all losses in tribute to O'Conmans' "state of the onion" address...

was he correct?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:44 | 5685040 surf0766
surf0766's picture

And it's green

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:47 | 5685054 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

all is fixed!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:18 | 5685193 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"Russian warship docks in Cuba before US talks
14 Mins Ago
An armed Russian spy ship, the Victor Leonov CCB-175, sailed into Havana harbor this morning, just hours before the Obama Administration and the Havana government will sit down for bilateral talks. The Russian warship is openly docked at a cruise ship terminal in the port of Havana, in plain sight for all to see."

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000348002

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:28 | 5685230 Jacksons Ghost
Jacksons Ghost's picture

Remember the Maine!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:37 | 5685261 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Who cares.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:35 | 5685259 NoPension
NoPension's picture

Buy that Fukin' Dip.
Or was that the PPT making sure O'Bumbler had green before tonight's big Free Shit -A-Thon?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:43 | 5685034 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

It just doesn't matter what the C.B.'s do anymore. They are not gods, and have in fact made the problem many magnitudes worse.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:42 | 5685035 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

let's take care for what we wish for...this will not end well

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:51 | 5685065 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Not end well for whom?  Those banks that have balance sheets of insolvent zombies?  Those holding 10,000 PE stocks?  

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:13 | 5685430 madcows
madcows's picture

those holding trillions in derivatives.

are they REALLY rich?  or just paper-rich?

the sad thing is, they are REALLY rich, b/c when it all goes boom, the taxpayers will be stuck with the bills, and the thieves will have yachted off to Club Med.

Shoot a banker while you still can.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:04 | 5685614 headhunt
headhunt's picture

We are all holding trillions in treasury derivatives

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:54 | 5685072 Tursas
Tursas's picture

Charlie under it's new master the Rothschilds is a perfect tool to stirr the Islam pot!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:47 | 5685047 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SPX down 25 and now back up about same - thought that cunt yellen had her  HFTs shut off.

 

Thanks ICE you fucking assholes.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:47 | 5685050 PTR
PTR's picture

Ramming speed.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:48 | 5685057 falak pema
falak pema's picture

If you want to dance the Contango just buy into this  :

http://uk.businessinsider.com/colossal-oil-tankers-storing-contango-pric...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:49 | 5685059 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

"The irony it seems is that as a growing number of central banks actively seek to export deflation, this could further exacerbate the market phenomena that have investors on edge"

Got popcorn?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:53 | 5685068 Fix-ItSilly
Fix-ItSilly's picture

Why measure worldwide GDP with a biased reference, the USD?  ...in order to present a prior biased position seeking a question.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:58 | 5685107 Tursas
Tursas's picture

Next time Reichsmarks!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:59 | 5685113 madcows
madcows's picture

sure, put it in terms of gold or silver or boogers.

the dollar has been on a tear for a while now.  so, wouldn't that result in a representative plunge in other fiats?

the chart is misleading.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:54 | 5685071 badger10
badger10's picture

Well the state of the Union speech is so important that my wife and I are going to see the movie unbroken at that time.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:55 | 5685081 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

natural gas -9% ... sounds normal ... for this casino

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:56 | 5685086 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

anything followed by "vortex" sounds ominous

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:07 | 5685153 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

And GDP crushing.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:00 | 5685112 ZMan5
ZMan5's picture

And people blame Obama? Look, I don't like everything about him, but the basket of blame is full of eggs that go back decades, covering presidents of both parties, and Congresses of the same. Don't be so short-sighted as to suggest that it's all the blame of one party or one president. The whole fucking political complex was compromised by Big Money and Big Businesses long ago, starting with Reagan...and in some ways, long before even him.

 

Either way, I'm seeing multiple sites predicting this year will be the one where the game falls apart, and the decision by the SNB just might be the catalyst. Or, we will be wrong and everything continues like a bad zombie shuffle.

 

I could use a few years to get my preparations up to speed, frankly.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:04 | 5685143 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The band aid has been on for so damn long that I'd just like to see it ripped off to expose the wound already. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:44 | 5686410 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Dr. Richard Head - Would we have preferred a busted knee-cap or this Chinese water torture ?

Busted knee in 2008 would have been my choice but vested interests and scared geezers outweigh those of us that wish to evolve, innovate compete. We are not welcome - yet :/)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:12 | 5685170 GoldenDonuts
GoldenDonuts's picture

How many times are you going to have to watch the way people get to the office on president before you see that every elections is decided before you even vote red or blue.  It is decided because the big money already owns both sides and couldn't care less which side wins.  There is no red or blue only purple.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:27 | 5685208 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

Double post

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:27 | 5685228 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

And not to mention that barry was elected by promising change and turned out to be nothing more than a darker shade of Bush.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:34 | 5685250 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Bush was an idiot and 0bama is a communist idiot - big difference

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:02 | 5685291 headhunt
headhunt's picture

I can't wait to vote for Jeb Bush!

Only -6 !!!!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:55 | 5685567 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

Obama is a cypher.  Given that he thinks he reigns over 56 States, that Austrian is a language and that his "father" liberated Auschwitz (hundreds of miles behind Soviet lines as every schoolboy knows) I think it's reasonable to assume that he knows absolutely nothing about dis white man economics sheet.  That's why he was selected as Tweedledum versus the Tweedledee guy in the 'election'.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:12 | 5685633 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

zman:"And people blame Obama? Look, I don't like everything about him, but the basket of blame is full of eggs that go back decades, covering presidents of both parties, and Congresses of the same. Don't be so short-sighted as to suggest that it's all the blame of one party or one president. The whole fucking political complex was compromised by Big Money and Big Businesses long ago, starting with Reagan...and in some ways, long before even him."

hey dickwad-he is the president in his second term..the buck stops at his desk, all most any ZH poster here could have started the reversal of bad policy and corruption..he added to it.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:43 | 5686161 me again
me again's picture

No. you're wrong, and the person you're commenting on is right; the plan and the conspiracy go back decades. He is merely the latest puppet.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:25 | 5686104 me again
me again's picture

It starts with the JFK assassination. That's when the phrase, "conspiracy theorist" entered the language; and since then 11 out of 9 conspiracy operations have been demonstrated to be true. The next important step was by Richard, (I am not a crook), Nixon; who removed the Gold backing from the US Currency; and, of equal importance started the process of "normalizing" relations with Communist China. NOthing is more important than that you understand that it was the supra-nationalist corporate owners who decided to sell America to the Chinese; in order to facilitate their permanent dream of producing with slave labour and selling into the dollar market; which they did. This is the basis of everything; this is the real problem. Clinton signed the outrageous legislation granting China "Most favored nation trading status"; and we now have no industrial base and no good paying jobs. The United States was built behind a tariff wall; to the dismay of the British. And it was destroyed by "free trade", or "globalization"; which translates into English as "give all your money to China and then die".

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:07 | 5685152 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

Yats just told Barry that it's obviously Putins fault!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:39 | 5685274 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

The dollar is up over 10% in that time frame so if the dollar economy is down 5% nominal with a 10%+ rise in dollar index does that not mean we have theoretically gained in excess of 5% notionally?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:51 | 5685337 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

This story is a bit of a stretch!

Just because the dollar strengthens by 5% it doesn't mean there is less economic activity in the rest of the world.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:56 | 5685362 mattgallis
mattgallis's picture

thank god someone else gets it.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:00 | 5685377 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Down 4 trillion'...meh, merely a flesh wound!
Not taking into account the amount of actual dollars in existence in 2008 was around $800 billion. Print on, central banksters!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:12 | 5685427 dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

Can't someone like a divorced Scientologist fix this whole problem....?

 

 

I mean......c'mon......

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:15 | 5685437 mt paul
mt paul's picture

4 trilion

 

that's alot of dead trees...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:41 | 5685525 Batman11
Batman11's picture

In this weekend’s Sunday Sport "What happened to the wealth creators?"

Our intrepid reporters have information that they have formed a colony on Mars.

They are busy exploiting the Martians who don't have any labour laws.

In an interview with one of the wealth creators he said "We have exploited planet Earth, it was time to move on"

This is why the Martian economy is doing so well and the Earth's so badly.

Obvious really.

(If you didn't realise the Martian economy was doing well, you haven't been reading the Sunday Sport.)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:55 | 5685532 falak pema
falak pema's picture

What does the SNB play do to the derivative interest swap market ?

Here is a take on that : 

http://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2015/01/20/the-swiss-that-broke-the-...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:49 | 5685548 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Listen!

We're all gonna be SACRIFICED before these KILLERS will hand over the KEYS. GOT IT?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:49 | 5685554 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I think Blackrock has seriously miscalculated their 2015 projections. Blackrock has serious financial duress, when they start talking their book, and currency levels that don't correlate.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:56 | 5685582 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the Fed's plunge protection team in action...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab9

Just pay particular attention to table 5.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:57 | 5685588 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

But one day soon the dollar wll be worthless so the global economy measured in USD will boom,

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 17:58 | 5685592 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

Losing currency totals in a ledger is not the same thing as losing money.

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 18:02 | 5685600 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

This article is very informative with regard to what is going on with

'the deflationary vortex'. Thanks for spelling out the methods, Tyler.

I think I'm starting to undertand the magic tricks the CB is engaged in

thanks to Z/H.

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:01 | 5685800 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

F Uk off

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:58 | 5686002 The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

I'm poor, dollar wise.  I like deflation...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:57 | 5686005 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

So QE print is cancelled out don't need gold.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:57 | 5686007 The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

Inflation will lead you to Freedumb.  Signed, Central Bankers

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