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In The Latest IMF Comedy Of Errors These Charts Are Most Disturbing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As noted earlier, one of the more irrelevant events that took place overnight was that the IMF once again cut its outlook for global growth. Irrelevant, because this is precisely what anyone who has seen the IMF in action in the past has come to expect (see "IMF Comedy Hour: The Complete History Of The IMF's Growth "Forecasts" Since 2012", "The IMF's Comedy Of Quarterly Errors Reveals The Biggest Hockeystick You Have Ever Seen", "Comedy Of Forecast Errors: Here Are The IMF's Latest Projections Of Economic Growth" and so on). Sure enough, here is what the latest "global growth forecast" looks like: everything else is flat except 2015P which was cut from 3.8% to 3.5%, and 2016 was also cut by 0.3% to 3.7%.

 

On the surface nothing too surprising by the institution whose only job, year after year, is to try and stimulate global confidence, and year after year failing and instead making a joke of its economic forecasting abilities.

What drove the latest round of global cuts lower? It wasn't the US which was actually revised modestly higher (for the time being; it too will ultimately be revised lower), and Europe which was just barely cut.

Here is the main culprit:

 

But even more disturbing than China's growth forecast, is what the IMF sees global growth doing, which nobody will be shocked to learn, has once again been drastically slashed lower.

Why is this disturbing? Because as the world is slowly learning, it is all about trade, and central banks can't print trade.

Without a rebound in global trade, there can be no rebound in global growth period. And indicatively, 2014 global trade was originally expected to grow by 5.5% in the IMF's January 2013 forecast. It closed at 3.1%, or nearly 50% lower. Expect the 2015 forecast for trade, currently at 3.8%, to also be slashed to a sub 3% print when all is said and done - the first time trade will have a 3%-handle in the 21se century!

And yet, all of the above is largely meaningless as all it really is, is a bunch of economists trying to come up with practical numbers using broken theories as an attempt to boost confidence. And when it comes to the IMF and economists, the only "chart" that is even remotely relevant is the following.

 

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Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:21 | 5684352 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The little engine that couldn't!

 

"I think I can, I think I can!  Chugga chugga choo choo!  Awww, fuck, who dynamited the tracks!?"

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:26 | 5684377 knukles
knukles's picture

Love the stick's brand name "Vector"
Sooooo green shoots hair transplant and economic recoveryish

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:29 | 5684400 El Vaquero
Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:42 | 5684439 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Hey, whats up with our loss of confidence? The fine people at the IMF are simply trying to provide us a little optimism and we are just pissing all over it. Sure, they have been wrong...forever...but shit, so have we. They say the sky is the limit and we say the end is near. Maybe if we are lucky it will fall in the middle...

Nah, who am I kidding. This sucker is done, toast, over.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:11 | 5684572 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Prosperity is just around the corner; I can feel it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZDLcvPBHnU

Just around the corner
There's a rainbow in the sky
So let's have another cup o' coffee
And let's have another piece o' pie!

Trouble's just a bubble
And the clouds will soon roll by
So let's have another cup o' coffee
And let's have another piece o' pie

Let a smile be your umbrella
For it's just an April show'r
Even John D. Rockefeller
Is looking for the silver lining

Mister Herbert Hoover
Says that now's the time to buy
So let's have another cup o' coffee
And let's have another piece o' pie!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:05 | 5684848 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's called,  Shitty!...Shitty! Fed BANG<>

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 15:25 | 5684955 doctor10
doctor10's picture

the top 0.1% now control all the "chokepoints" in finance, shipping, realestate/landlord, courts, utilites, regulation and taxation, insurance etc.

they have become too stupidly greedy for anyone to deal with them-and any one who does-and does so successfully  so as to become percieved as "beating" them financially, why they get a dose of FREEDOM! courtesy of the anglo-american military enforcement arm.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:22 | 5684353 Money Boo Boo
Money Boo Boo's picture

"everybody gets it in the five hole" _ Christine Lagarde

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:22 | 5684360 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Did somebody say Legarde?

 

Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-do
I have a perfect puzzle for you
Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-dee
If you are wise, you'll listen to me
What do you get when you guzzle down sweets?
Eating as much as an elephant eats
What are you at getting terribly fat?
What do you think will come of that?

I don't like the look of it

Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-da
If you're not greedy, you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-do

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:29 | 5684394 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Someone beat her with her Prada purse please.  Just take that $1000 purse off her shoulder and beat her!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:35 | 5684424 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

That would give a whole new meaning to "The Devil Wears Prada."  I can just picture some ZHer snapping and doing exactly that while saying "You see that?  Wear it!  Wear it!"  *WHAP* *WHAP* *WHAP*

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:51 | 5684473 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

All this doesn't mean squat compared to the billions of tons of radioaction-infected seawater pouring out of Fukushima.

The rest of this is just a distraction...

Prepare your own self....

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:25 | 5684374 zeropain
zeropain's picture

I thought there was only three?  you sure you can fit in the other two holes mentioned?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:29 | 5684392 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Legarde has five penises.  Small ones.  I'll leave the mechanics of how they're used to your imagination.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:33 | 5684415 zeropain
zeropain's picture

don't judge me but now you made me want to do her :0 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:30 | 5684398 zeropain
zeropain's picture

notice that women were haned the baton.  but would men give up power to women if they had any power left?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:21 | 5684359 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Wayne gretzsky for treasury

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:40 | 5684435 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

I would prefer messier lemieux or lindros

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:00 | 5685108 noben
noben's picture

Just don't let Mrs Gretzky (Janet Jones*) run the Fed.
That Hollywood actress was "born to shop".

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janet_Jones

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:24 | 5684363 colonial
colonial's picture

You can't print trade...great line

Of course that won't stop the ECB from creating its own version of QE later this week.  But someone has to find a way to cleanse all the toxic debt

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:24 | 5684365 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

If the data wasn't manipulated in the first place I might care.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:24 | 5684366 zeropain
zeropain's picture

I think the 2014 economics Nobel Prize winner maybe a sign of change in perspective.  he is no krugman. 

“tame powerful firms”

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/13/jean-tirole-nobel-prize-...  

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:25 | 5684371 mtndds
mtndds's picture

looks like a limp dick

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:39 | 5684431 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

'Ask your doctor about treatments for ED (economic dystopia/dysfunction syndrome)'

 

*Warning: Side effects from liquiditidimatrazine™ may include; rising prices for your meat and other necessities, social unrest, police-state tactics, income inequality and impotence.   Consult your central bank for details.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:49 | 5684462 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Liquiditidimatrazine is only approved for use on bankers and oligarchs. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:33 | 5684408 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Here comes the perfect 45° bottom left to uppper right low vol melt up.  

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:32 | 5684409 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

IMF = I ncompetent M other F uckers

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:34 | 5684421 Money Boo Boo
Money Boo Boo's picture

International Monetary Fraudsters

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:53 | 5684480 AdmTirpitz
AdmTirpitz's picture

Indepenent money folders

Incapable mooching ferrets

I might flinch

Isis Might be Fake

Isis Might be our Future

I Munch Fur

 

 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:32 | 5684410 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Who will really need a bailout soon, Greece  or IMF. Snowballs are in season.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:36 | 5684420 localizer
localizer's picture

IMF "forecasts" are almost as solid as ratings agencies' triple-A "opinions"...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:38 | 5684428 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Taking a cue from the NFL, the IMF is invetigating whether Draghi intentionally deflated the Eurozone in advance of the "Stupor Bowl", aka his press conference.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:43 | 5684440 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  It's a fallacy that low or negative rates make it possible for Soverigns to pay back debt. Productivity is destroyed through savings destruction and purchasing power destruction.

 Based on Krugman's physique, I'd say he's hoping his heart fails before his head is abruptly taken by the angry masses.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:56 | 5684511 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Thanks! Short---Sweet--- and to the point~

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:02 | 5684540 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Ah, if only an anti-Keynesian political hero, one who could communicate such ideas to plain folk, could emerge, perhaps first in the U.S. ... well, one can only dream ...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:04 | 5684546 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, that's something I've been thinking about for a while now.  When rates go to zero money multiplication stops.  When they go negative, money multiplication goes in reverse.  Not everywhere, but anywhere there is money.  Which means investment grinds to a hault while consumers stop spending down their savings because it generates no income.

I haven't quite got my brain wrapped around the idea yet, but it came from a random thought I had one day:  What if lower interest rates are NOT stimulative?  What if that whole concept is untrue?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:19 | 5684600 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It isn't. The price of LIFE is higher than ever. Insurance, Food, Medical Care, ect are exploding in cost, and losing the talented individuals that provide those NEEDS, because of Central Banking policy.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:45 | 5684726 tired1
tired1's picture

Other than paying off usery, what is the imperative for 'growth?

Spreding 'growth' seems like spreding 'democracy'.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:47 | 5684452 Pounder
Pounder's picture

I find it hilariously ironic that the angle between the blade and the shaft is called the lie.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:53 | 5684486 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Those 'hockey stick' charts are as ugly as the 2014 Formula 1 cars! No moar hybrid banksters or cars....

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 13:59 | 5684519 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Are you kidding? Inflation targets and growth in the Military Industrial Complex have surpassed even IMF hopes.
Why therefore can't we use this 'blueprint' for success in the other sectors?

signed
Sarky Basterdo

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:09 | 5684558 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

First chart looks like a logo for the hockey world cup.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:09 | 5684559 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

We are all Tiger Woods.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:26 | 5684634 Rectal Hydration
Rectal Hydration's picture

#REF! - Invalid Cell Reference

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 14:38 | 5684685 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Can't resist:

What's our vector, Victor?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVq4_HhBK8Y

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 16:29 | 5685224 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

n/t

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