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"This Is A Race To The Bottom Where No Fiat Currency Wins"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following another frustrating year in the previous metals markets, 2015 is showing signs that change is afoot. As Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson notes in this brief presentation, while being 'wrong' for the last 2 years on gold has been painful, is it any less crazy to believe that it will turnaround that to believe the hype that The Fed will raise rates once again (just like it promised in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and now 2015...) - who is really losing their credibility? With the world's fiat currencies waging war and dislocations mounting, gold is no longer the 'David' underdog fighting against the 'Goliath' central banks... but is - as Alan Greenspan opined - "the premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it."

 

 

"The currency wars are here... and they are a race to the bottom where no fiat currency wins."

 

Full note below:

SGF January 2015 Newsletter

 

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Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:52 | 5685987 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

IF gold does run from here and enter a bull market again, then you can get rich off NUGT. My only concern is that the POG is only 1296 right now, which is not really that big of a deal. I think the miners massive run off their lows is giving us the illusion that this IS IT boys!!!! God, I hope it is it and make a killing off NUGT but I think people are jumping to conclusion too early and forgetting how easily the cb's can smack this down.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:57 | 5686000 linniepar
linniepar's picture

But with all the repatriations they be running out of dry powder.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:19 | 5686081 Publicus
Publicus's picture

The people shall be free at last when all currencies are banished.

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 07:31 | 5687365 commander gruze?
commander gruze?'s picture

There, I fixed the pic for y'all.

It cannot be created - there is no issuer.
It cannot be destroyed - it's not based on liability.
It does not tarnish - it's immaterial.
It does not decay - it's information.
It cannot be diluted by inflation - there is no inflation.
It cannot be destroyed by deflation - is infinitely divisible into smaller units.

Bitcoin. Just works.

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 09:25 | 5687526 The central planners
The central planners's picture

Its value can be dropped to zero (it already happened) because its 100% virtual not real.

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 09:35 | 5687553 commander gruze?
commander gruze?'s picture

Please explain how.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:14 | 5686059 KingFiat
KingFiat's picture

NUGT is just paper. If POG really rises NUGT and other paper forms of golds will default. Just like some currency traders defaulted on the sudden rise of the Swiss Franch.

I do not want to be in NUGT right now, although it in safer times can be useful to mitigate risk.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:29 | 5686354 scuttlebutt
scuttlebutt's picture

It's safer to be in NUGT or JNUG now, not later when things become real screwy. Buy low. Sell high. Get out before everything paper crashes.

 

Besides, NUGT is a far better value right now at $20.00 then most of last year, or the years before that when it was priced much higher.

 

Personally, I'm more interested in UVXY.  Would be nothing better than seeing stocks go to where they belong. Down, down, down.

 

Proviso: Just not sure of what to do with that fiat, when it's time to cash out.

 

 

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 00:05 | 5686966 Flying Spaghett...
Flying Spaghetti Monster's picture

I am in both UVXY and UGL and have for nearly a month now, NUGT moves faster I suppose

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 00:05 | 5686967 Flying Spaghett...
Flying Spaghetti Monster's picture

I am in both UVXY and UGL and have for nearly a month now, NUGT moves faster I suppose

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:53 | 5686439 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

NUGT is up 110 in January.

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 00:35 | 5687027 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I bought nugt at 12.50. I was screaming to myself to sell it today. I already rode it down 25% before it went back up, and 3xed ETFs are not something you want to hold a long time unless you KNOW it's going to continue up, and I don't think it is. Even if gold stabilizes around the 1300 level without another mysterious middle of the night monkey hammering, just the daily moves at 3x will eat up your capital. I fully expect to be kicking myself by Friday.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:29 | 5686350 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Fuck paper.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:54 | 5685991 linniepar
linniepar's picture

I dont always bottom time my pm buying, but when I do I buy with both hands.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:09 | 5686282 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Be careful what you buy.

"Gold cannot be created."

Actually, Glenn Seaborg transmuted bismuth to gold decades ago by nuclear bombardment.  Showed up all the alchemists.

Kind of an expensive process, but still, at $1200 an ounce, might be worth a try.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:33 | 5686364 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Not even close to worthwhile; Seaborg's approach would cost you around $2.4B/oz in today's dollars for the energy and equipment.

Oh, and there is the small problem of the resulting isotope of gold being radioactive. ;)

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:58 | 5686006 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

The solution to credit bubbles, and bubbles in general, is also devaluation. Always. Everthing the fed / government does is a set up to unload.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 19:57 | 5686008 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Which is why the SNB quit the Ponzi.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:01 | 5686014 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

Three white soldiers on the weekly. breakout and trend reversal confirmed.  back the truck up BITCHEZ!!!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 22:29 | 5686594 WOAR
WOAR's picture

How and why did this get upvotes? I don't even understand the first sentence...

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 00:03 | 5686964 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

three white or three advancing soldiers: This is a candlestick charting pattern is a group of three white candlesticks with consecutively higher closes (with each closing near the highs of the session). These three white candles presage more strength if they appear after a period of stable prices or at a low price area.

http://www.candlecharts.com/candlestick-charting-glossary.html

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:03 | 5686020 falak pema
falak pema's picture

All now a question of timing. Don't jump into the glden pond too fast the CBs still have legs. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:06 | 5686028 Bighorn_100b
Bighorn_100b's picture

I am not convinced we have seen the bottom in gold, silver, PM's.

As I said earlier today. Hoard cash and buy at much lower prices. The banks are not done yet. IMO.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:12 | 5686056 Vuke
Vuke's picture

Yep, hoard cash like those lucky Russians, Japanese, Argentinians, Venezuelans, Europeans and others who have seen their currencies in free fall.  Do you really believe the USD will keep flying as exports fall off and junk bonds based on fraking fade away?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:31 | 5686121 Bighorn_100b
Bighorn_100b's picture

I am a stacker, Silver Eagles mostly. Plenty of money in the miners as well.

Just saying we have had a nice run up so why not take a deep breath and feel good about it.

If you know the top or bottom.......The more power to you.

I don't so I'm taking some profits along the way. Staying in cash for a couple of weeks to see what happens.

What's wrong with that?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:50 | 5686330 Vuke
Vuke's picture

Bighorn, nothing wrong with that at all.  I do the same myself.  But, I book my profits in physical with enough cash to keep the wolf from the door for 6 months. When the bad guys come calling, tax men etc., I'd much sooner give them cash than physical.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 22:22 | 5686558 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

You will panic and buy GDX at 40

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 19:25 | 5690173 Bighorn_100b
Bighorn_100b's picture

No, have a limit order in for GDX @ $22.00.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:06 | 5686033 Katastrofenhausse
Katastrofenhausse's picture

OK, so we debased some folks life savings

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:17 | 5686039 noben
noben's picture

But... IT. CAN. BE. STOLEN.

AND HAS BEEN. Time and again.

A wee bit of Precious is good. Too much is bad... for your health and longevity. Especially if you're worth more dead than alive.

p.s. Let's do a thought experiment outside the Ship Of Fools, for a minute:

Have you ever wondered what the point was for Pirates to steal gold, only to promptly hide/bury it somewhere and almost never to be used or seen again? If you can't use at, you can't take it with you and don't want to leave it to other Pirates, then what's the point? What folly!

Well, gold-lusting pirates we never the smartest guys around. If they were, they'd be called... Bankers.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:19 | 5686085 nuubee
nuubee's picture

They can't steal it if...

1) They don't know you have it.

2) They don't know where it is.

Yeah, if you keep it with the silverware, or in the junk drawer, you get what you deserve.

If you bury it underneath the house with no witnesses, you might as well have made it disappear.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:21 | 5686090 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

what a fuckin retard!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:42 | 5686127 noben
noben's picture

Was gonna write a p.s., but now have to 'reply'...

I am a fan of both Gold and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, FWIW. In fact, he's the reason I started reading ZH a few years ago. Anyway... unlike pirates and their Ships-of-Fools, I like to keep my head and lifestyle. IOW... I like to have my gold, and use it too. Capish?

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 02:19 | 5687191 RichardParker
RichardParker's picture

They shudda traded them in for FRNs...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:31 | 5686128 explosivo
explosivo's picture

Jim Rickards is a state shill. 

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:34 | 5686137 noben
noben's picture

??? Please elaborate.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:23 | 5686337 decon
decon's picture

He's the lawyer that orchestrated the original bail out (LTCM), I'm sure he's a smart guy but I'm also sure he's an asshole.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:29 | 5686358 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

I won't speak for explosivo, but generally, a successful 'con' always has a good come-on; revealing just enough 'truth' to bait the unsuspecting passerby.   Even better if he has 'credentials'...   Problem is, no one as well-known and with the chops that Rickards has, would ever be allowed to 'reveal' what he has, and maintain 'outsider' status without an 'unfortunate' incident taking place - to wit, the Argentine prosecutor of late.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 20:51 | 5686200 red1chief
red1chief's picture

 

Those who have seen a big pile of gold in person understand why it will always be extremely valuable. It is simply gorgeous beyond explanation, and it practically screams at you that you must have some!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 22:25 | 5686578 smukster
smukster's picture

Bogota Gold Museum style maybe, but bars?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:03 | 5686250 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

A whirlpool that ultimately swirls into the people's guillotines.

The banksters need to repay us.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:08 | 5686281 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I figure as a last gasp of desperation to retain "reserve currency" status, at some point the US is going to remove the US $35 peg to gold.

It won't make the US dollar worth anymore, but wil restore confidence in the currency as it will be implied that the US is going back to a PM standard, which of course will be a lie.

 

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 07:07 | 5687345 Time for Titus
Time for Titus's picture

Did you mean "restore" the $35 peg to gold?

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:40 | 5686395 franzpick
franzpick's picture

THE DANSE MACABRE OF THE CURRENCIES HAS BEGUN

AGAIN.

This will be the last dance...

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:51 | 5686428 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Every game has a winner, Bruce Kraping is full of shit!  Leverage is based on available margin. Bruce can go pound sand!

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 21:56 | 5686458 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

It CAN however be confiscated and taxed.

Tue, 01/20/2015 - 22:37 | 5686632 WOAR
WOAR's picture

How can you tax gold? In order for something to be taxed, you have to have a transaction. I.e., if you sell your gold, that can be taxed.

However, you can't tax gains that are not "realized", i.e., no sale exists. Throw in some black market mechanics, though, and physical gold and cash might as well have never existed in the eyes of the government...

Wed, 01/21/2015 - 00:14 | 5686983 rejected
rejected's picture

Dare ya to argue that one with the IRS!

I agree. If I buy a ton of steel, I'm not taxed, but one oz of gold...

Of course, gold is not money according to the Bernak

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