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Panmure: Draghi's QE Will Fail, 2015 Will Be The Year Of "The Great Unwinding"
As everyone knows by now, tomorrow the ECB will announce a QE plan that monetizes some €50 billion (and maybe more) in European government bonds per month, although Greece may be left out in the cold. It is also the reason why while European stocks have priced in more than 100% of the full impact of a €1 trillion QE, those gains are about to be wiped out. Here's why according to Panmure Gordon.
From the Panmure note:
While the impact on European equity markets to be positive in the short-term, 3 things will eventually curtail positive impact:
- Disunity among euro zone politicians
- Greek election on Jan. 25
- Restrictions on range of assets ECB can buy
And here is what we have said from the very beginning about not only European but US QE: Panmure says €1 trillion in QE from ECB doesn’t do much except buy time for politicians. Which is absolutely spot on and was exemplified by the infamous Schumer outburst to Bernanke: "Get to work Mr. Chairman."
Panmure adds that Europe must increase economic/political convergence and structural reforms or face threat of “persistent existential crisis." This happens at a time when the greater union has rarely appeared less attractive to voters.
That means euro is now an "unsustainable currency peg" for its members, adding that the Euro is also the biggest threat to U.K. growth in 2015
And the report's conclusion: "With euro firmly “in the crosshairs” 2015 is shaping up as the Great Unwinding."
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So if I'm gettin this right.....BTFATH then?
Please forgive me but did he say his name was "PanManure" Gordon?
Shut up Beavis!
No, his name is Pre-mature.... as in he wished 2015 would be the year of demise but it will likely drag on much much much longer.
.
STFOTM (Stay The Fuck Out Of The Market.) You don't know if it'll be BTFD, BTFATH, STFR or something new.
Oh so you are saying I shouldn't "sell to open" put or call options on Euro Stoxx 50 tomorrow morning?
/s
According to MSN, 2015 will be a great year for stocks;
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/stock-dividend-yields-are-above...
They are talking up something that hasn't happened, might not happen and if it does happen they are planning on doing it in a way that does the least good. There is a certain desperation to it all and it won't end well.
I don't know if I"m getting anything right; but I sold my Dec. Silver Contract today for +$14,400; the one that I anounced the purchase of here on 12/01/14; under my last name. I got kicked off for reasons unknown.
That, or GTFOAQAP! Get The Fuck Out As Quietly As Possible.
Draghi blackmails Greeks
I smell scared status quo.
They should be afraid ... Very afraid
The crisis is over?
What a bunch of horse manure
Screw'em
Old timers called it horse pucky. Milestones
Reminds me of the SNB last week.
It will remind you of future passed soon, popeye. Niether I nor Frank wished it so- It is what it is.
currency wars- race to the bottom
russia allredy win when they kill ruble in dcember
swiss loost last week
can dragi kill euro tummorow, is that why greeks election matter no more and party in davos ?
p.s. but we ar not invated
Uhg, why bother.
If you put your name on it.
It should be your best.
Yes, forwardho, but I'm thinking ... out of space is not an english speaker. Forgive he/she for trying, K?
We unwound some folks
The ECB has been buying trash from banks in Europe for years....what is different about calling this round QE? Maybe the technical aspects vary, but the end result is the same.
But this is gonna be grade A, number 1 trash, so it should burn nicely when they are freezing in the dark.
Krugman will declare it isn't enough.
+1 unleash the Martian Invasion and break every single window on this planet
Typical European Socialist / Keynesian.
Plus, they are in a dillemma.
Case 1:
If Greece exits the Eurozone, after some turmoil, the Euro would become more attractive, i.e. stronger, no?
That's worsening the situation for the other periphery countries. If they leave the Euro, too, the Euro will be even stronger.
Then France goes belly up.
And so on.
Until Germany is the only country left with the Euro.
Case 2:
The weaker countries all stay in the Eurozone and their government debt is soaked up by the banks which pass it on to ECB.
ECB prints to the moon, the Euro will be weaker (relative to the USD?)
This can be beneficial for the periphery countries, but is even more so for the German exporters, which will further increase inequality and tensions!
--> the solution out of this mess: Forget QE, Germany needs to leave the Euro.
greece cannot exit, if so it is open bar for others indepence fashion... NO ONE GONNA EXIT ANYTHING.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SYSTEM IS NOT ALLOWED TO CRASH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
if greece exit, then no debt to pay back.... you all crazy punks, banks never gonna let such customer get the fuck out...
+
you cannot undone 50 years of EU pseudo build.
no way.
keep going, for this year nothing happen in EU ZONE...
2016 = election preload. expect WW SHTF 1 year around usa/france new turn, around 2017.
not before.
Very myopic point of view you have. So it all revolves around a bubble blowing rotation huh?
Yes, I'm sure it's that simple. No other factors to consider, just a game of musical chairs.
Everybody needs to leave the Euro; and the first one is the smart one. ie; the Swiss. Read "The Tradgedy of the Euro" on the Von Mises website library, for free. It's a scholarly history of where the Euro came from and who it was designed to accommodate.
Ejaculatio praecox.
Panmure is an optimist. It is obvious that the CB's are rotating the responsibility of blowing the bubble. The sheeple will have to loose faith in the currency before it implodes.
A. FULL FISCAL INTEGRATION
OR
B. INEVITABLE COLLAPSE OF THE MONETARY EXPERIMENT
CHOOSE ONE.
A. is what Brussels want, but that also means ongoing transfer payments to the less viable member states, which is pretty much all of them bar Germany. Therein lies the problem.
Number was lost in translation
Draghi will stun with 50 bajillion
I'm surprised they don't just give us trinkets and beads to work with.
As European Central Bank Is Set to Unleash a Massive Round of Quantitative Easing, Central Bank Heads Admit QE Doesn’t Work!
Cause nothin says schizophrenic like a doctor that says he has the cure for the disease and then broadcasts that he know it won't work but will "do it anyway"!...
Let me know when the schizophrenic side to that peronality that is a psychopath and is ready to call it a day and commit suicide by starting a game of nuclear chicken, simply because it knows it's insane and can't control it all anymore and wants to take everyone else out with "it"!
I believe the address to the residence(s) of both personalities are in Tel Aviv and Washington
leave it up to the italian ex-goldman rat to try and skirt the very treaties which they (ECB) created from doing any sort of QE that involes buying soverign bonds / securities.
the filthy roman rodent is trying to get the other 19 banks to implement some sort of QE. which is likely illegal under the very framework these degenerates made up in the first place.
the germans are about fed up with the roman rodent's financial exrement and found an easy way out of the eu. i was wondering why they had to speed up the gold delivery process.
being a rat from rome, having lived its flea infested life inside the gutters of goldman and finding refuge in the trash heaps of the central bank, the roman rodent is well versed in spreading its filth and diseases in the form of QE
hopefully the germans will squash the roman rodents intestines and hang it up as art in the national gallery of modern and contemporary art.
If the Germans want Russian business, they will squash it.
Not neccessarily....
depends what NSA has on German politicians.
This happens at a time when the greater union has rarely appeared less attractive to voters.
Indeed European voters are beginning to question the success of the EU project. But one large segment of people not only does not question the EU project and it's social and economic conditions, but actually are risking life and limb to join the EU as fast as their feet can take them. I speak of nearly 1 million people hovering at the fringes of the EU, from Morocco across Tunisia, Libya, Egypt up to Turkey's borders. At any given time over 1 million people from Africa, Asia and the Middle East are in temporary camps waiting for their chance to make their move, either alone or with paid sumgglers. Boats attempt to leave North Africa and Turkey and reach any earth administered from the EU. Like the tiny enclaves and Island surrounding the Medit. Sea.
Behind this million are a further 100 million more across all of Africa, Asia and the Middle East who consider their movement north only a matter of time. The system north can handle only 1 million in waiting areas for now. Across the channel in France, hundreds are jumping on lorries, boats, one man tried to swin the channel, all to get to Britain.
So you see, the EU is a master success, it is the rest of the world who wants to be in the EU system, the natives are the only ones seeking an exit.
Many people just ignore immigration seeing it as a minor problem, all we need do is be more humane and let people in, then the transit camps would empty and all would be well. I beg to differ. The biggest sotry of 2015-2016 will be a break out of violence by the hundreds of thousands trying to break in, already they rito in France, for the chance to enter Britain. Many locals arrive and protest with the immigrants demanding more open borders for all. These twats, will be the death of Europe. But that does not stop them lobbying for more immigration and more open borders.
overpopulation is at the root of most of the so called geo-political problems; if you feed the non-civilized sub-normals they reproduce; thereby exhibiting the functional intelligence of Yeast.
I kind of disagree on bullet three:
They have broken almost every condition of the union so far.
The Euro is a political, ideologially motivated misconstruct. As all that is not sustainable, it will fail and stop, along with all other fiat currencies, dollar included, one at the time or maybe also many at once if there is THE financial BIG BANG occuring that some suspect has to occur at some point.
Beautiful first sentence. Agree completely.
The greatest of ironies is that the 'New World Order' types' highest beliefs are in ever greater political integration, fiat money - a schizophrenic pairing much like matter and anti-matter, doomed to destruction if ever they meet.
If the EU's currency were the Aurum rather than the Euro the EU's financial plan would be viable.
What is the difference?
The Aurum trusts in the creator as Central Banker, and relies individual workers' self-interest for economic stability.
The Euro trusts in elite University-trained 'experts' as Central Banker, and relies upon heaps of regulation and in non-commercial bureaucrats' policies for economic stability.
Given stable non-discretionary money such as the Aurum and a lack of political protectionism, cooperation on a greater scale than the EU dares imagine is a common occurrence.
They cannot conceive of the power of Incentive, and so repose all their hopes for the future in the power of Disincentive.
So, will the Greeks be learning to say OPA and OUZO in Russian soon?
http://olduvai.ca
I think the party lasts a little longer with all this but maybe later in the year everything starts to implode. And obama saying last night that the crisis was over. Probably because he knows the central bankers(jews) got his back and will go to work. I do not believe for one second that qe has ended. Look at the last two days where the market really wanted to go down but it just kept coming back and closed green. That was fed interjection.
Oh, I don't think it lasted that long. The whole premise for a pan-european currency was that it could be soundly managed at the ECB-level., without that, well, it would be preferable to work in dollars or, perhaps some other currency...and since Europe doesn't have a functioning tax-base in relation to its govt. debt... this would make things well, Japan, on a much larger scale.
@tictock--please read "The Tradgedy of the Euro"; a scholarly work on the actual history of the Euro and its implementation and purpose; it's available to read free on the Von Mises Institute website, Library page.